Immigration patterns appear to be settling into a new normal, with much higher levels of inward migration pushing up the net population gain compared to pre-Covid levels.
The graph below shows the main measures of migration - long term arrivals, long tem departures and the net gain or loss of population due to migration, as estimated by Statistics NZ.
It shows migration trends followed very regular seasonal patterns up until 2020, with arrivals mostly staying within the 10,000 to 15,000 bands per month, departures generally staying between 5,000 and 10,000 a month, and the net gain straddling either side of 5000 a month.
Then there was a big jump in migrant arrivals just before the pandemic travel restrictions were put in place and the subsequent massive decline in arrivals as the travel restrictions reduced arrivals to a mere trickle, pushing the net change into a migration loss almost overnight.
Once the travel restrictions were removed, migrant arrivals increased strongly again, while long term departures also increased but not by as much.
That pushed the monthly net gain from migration up past 10,000 a month and it has mostly stayed there ever since, apart from December last year and January this year when there was a sudden dip.
However the graph below suggests that the post-travel restrictions surge has now abated and that migration flows could be settling down again to a regular seasonal pattern, but at higher levels than they were pre-Covid.
Inward migration flows of around 20,000 a month and net monthly gains of more than 10,000 appear to be the new norm, with both figures well up on where they were pre-Covid.
Of course it's still early days and we will have to wait and say if the Government's latest revamp of work visa rules has much effect on the numbers.
Statistics NZ's migration figures also need to be treated with caution because they are not finalised for 16 months and the most recent figures in particular may be subject to significant revisions.
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64 Comments
I think give it 3 months and the departures will start skyrocketing. There simply isn't going to be jobs and on a seperate note, it just defies logic to me that simple basic english wasn't a requirement to come work in NZ - why on earth would the Labour party remove that.
I think it is already happening, but it will take another 2 months to show in Stats migration data.
NZ remains a much sought-after country to live in for those living abroad - of all ages/stages of life.
Let's hope the housing stock increases - in line with the swelling in population.
TTP
The housing stock ought to increase before the swelling population. Make a population plan - get general approval for it (universal approval is impossible) - then plan teachers training, trade apprentiseships, nursing schools, water resources, roads, sewage outlets, etc.
Probably depends on what politicians are fully invested in. Outcomes for the country, or their own land speculation.
I agree, New Zealanders are often forgetting that they live in one of the best countries on the planet. (Not saying that we shouldn't try to improve our country though)
Given the souring situation in some other parts of the world (including Europe), I presume New Zealand will remain being a very attractive destination for many potential immigrants.
No - there's still too much racial disharmony which could keep going for decades, just as it have been going on for decades.
Try the US, France, Middle East, Ukraine, South Africa and many other countries for real racial disharmony.
Or UK, Brazil, Fiji, India, China, Zimbabwe. Most places really.
Very much sort after by inhabitants of 3rd world countries.
You just need to see the makeup of the recent additions.
NZ might be sought after….but the real question is ..is mass immigration sought by us?
Net passenger arrivals so far is +47k for January, +46k for Feb, -46k for Mar, and currently -33k for April so far (10 days). So you might be right. As a comparison, last year Mar number was -24k and April (total month) was -34k.
Arrival numbers have dropped significantly, but departures have not, so the great population replacement continues unabated as Kiwi's leave and immigrants arrive.
I can recall at the time - NZ business (especially orchards) screaming to Labour to open the gates - ‘we need workers, can’t find anyone in NZ that wants to work for $5/hr’
NZ - to achieve third world status in 3 years.
Fed farmers on rnz today saying there will be shortages of cheap imported labour this spring due to the changes coming in.
I do not like Fed Farmers.
Back in the 80s/90s when I was working in the City of London, I was surprised at number of people who took extended 'holidays' picking fruit and had done for years. A hangover from the war? I'm not sure. But having an employer that gave you extra time off to pick fruit seems like good thing to me. Nice way to destress. Not sure if this is still offered. Anyone know?
In Oman where any menial work is done by migrants from the subcontinent, date picking is still reserved for the Omanis. At harvest time, the whole country takes four weeks off to pick and sort dates.
It's a shame misinformation like paying immigrants $5/hr gets spread around. By law, employers need to pay immigrants the same minimum wage as Kiwis.
Most of the RSE workers actually earn more than minimum wage as they are on piecework and they are highly efficient workers. Its the soft western backpackers that can't cut in the fields and employers are forced to pay them the minimum wage instead.
has the definition of an immigrant changed? It used to be resident for over a year. So many RSE workers and backpackers were never counted (quite rightly). My concern is any residency that can lead to permanent NZ citizenship. The arguments for and against levels of immigration have lasted all the 21 yeats I've lived here - sometimes we have too many unemployed and sometimes too many unfilled jobs; temporary work visas can be adjusted but not NZ passport holders.
It's probably the rampant exploitation of them uncovered over the years that has people being cynical about employers.
Foreign seasonal workers were finding their wages reduced to zero some weeks as deductions they say were unlawful were being taken out of their pay packets
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/hawkes-bay-rse-workers-pay-complaint-wide…
In the above case, zero is less than both the minimum wage and $5 an hour.
Correct. Infact, RSE workers must be paid minimum wage + 10% by law.
Never mind that Blackbeard's post is incorrect, it gets double digit thumbs up. People just thumb up what they want to hear/believe, quite sad.
There are numerous cases of exploitation of migrant workers, such as https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/04/08/southland-farm-owner-to-pay-215k-for…
While it is true that they are supposed to get all the same rights as local workers, it's clear that doesn't always happen
If only Labour had been in the position to completely ignoring the vested interests of the business lobby (whose members were never going to vote Labour anyway).
You would think that having pre-arranged accommodation would also be a requirement, or do immigrants just hop off the plane and get an Uber to the nearest motel? It's actually harder to import a car or a cat into NZ, than migrate here.
When I arrived I had a motel booked for a couple of weeks, and looked for a rental on arrival. Difficult to choose and be accepted for a place when you are overseas.
I work all over auckland and often pop into supermarkets for my lunch. Auckland is now one of the most culturally diverse cities I've ever been to. I've only lived in NZ for 17 years, but to those born here, it must be staggering.
Not quite as diverse as NY and London when I lived there but NZ's advantage is the breadth of immigration - people from almost everywhere and only a few developing ghettos. At least NZ doesn't have riots between Muslim and Hindu unlike Leicester in 2022.
Auckland had been that way for quote sometime I remember when I was in university in 2006 they were saying 40% of Auckland were born overseas. Staggering really.
Yes, Auckland is well on the way to diversity levels of Toronto or Vancouver. If we manage it well, this could be a source of great strength, vibrancy, innovation and cultural enrichment. If not...
Normally each suburb shopping area has 4-5 different spice stores nearby each from a different culture or part of the world (but often selling the same spice mixes). This is the same for the many different Asian markets. It is actually staggering or shocking to go down South Is and find even the concept of a cheap fruit and vege store outside of a duopoly supermarket hold is a rare thing. Hence suitcases during travel between North and South Is for business and family travel are often filled with spices, herbs and even vegetables. The North Is often sells produce grown/made in the South Is cheaper (often the South supermarkets do not even sell what is produced in the South Is while they are available in the North same chain stores).
It is mind boggling how anyone could stand the lack options and the enforced duopoly pricing, especially with the massive costs for fruit and veges from the duopoly, (half a celery for $8, a fistful of brocolli or lettuce for $5, a handful of parsley for $4 and don't get me started on the potato and carrot price hikes). Down South a bog standard stirfry (with meat and vegetables) would be a luxury meal. In Auckland though I could take a whole banana box of expensive heirloom vegetables away for less then $20, only resorting to the cheaper vegetables if we needed to make stock or put on a large multi-family meal.
I really feel more sympathy for the families down South doing it tough with food insecurity because they often have fewer options and the pricing is ludicrous compared to Auckland. They don't even have decent affordable food markets with the same accessibility. Avondale is a great market to fill up a car of food for a couple of bills. How families in Auckland face wider insecurity is really because the housing costs & transport cf issues also come into play.
If you are not driving going to the fruit and vege market for a weekly shop can be a mission many cannot access unless really able bodied; because carrying (or even dragging) more than 10kg of produce 2km+ without good health can be unwise at best. At worst bring a spare ventilator and heart monitor with an alert bracelet. Mind you though most the time you just silently collapse onto the ground, cannot even breathe adequately or with a heart attack and most people just walk around in NI. While the NI is cheaper so is life and people are way less helpful in medical emergencies. Even going so far as to attack or rob you while you are down, (be wary of those in suits, shirts or rugby jerseys). The SI is full of more charm and wealth in humanity & empathy. The quandary then is which is better: the people in a relaxed housing market city down South or the food up North. It is a real question of whether supportive community or food security is more important when chips are down and you are able to work remotely.
Here in Auckland we need cheaper carrots to offset our extortionate house prices
The store would have to pay you for them to make that work XD
Auckland has economies of scale and a warmer climate to grow more, as well as being a main port of imported fruit and veg. Although it may have more options in many regards, I'd take; less people, cheaper land and housing, more mountains and nature, and much less of the rat race mentality that comes with larger cities, any day over living in a city of over 1mil and the trade-offs that come with it. Also there are plenty of small fruit and veg stores down south if you look, It appears you confuse greater food scarcity with greater variety when looking at the south.
On the plus side, down here many people have a reasonable garden and can grow their own.
This is certainly changing in Christchurch now, but we do have enough decent veggie and specialty shops to make life bearable. Funky Pumpkin, Yogijis and a variety of other Asian supermarkets for me.
It certainly helps that water is not user pays in the SI and those who use less water often subsidize those with extensive gardens and water use. However the trade off without water metering is there is often no way to detect leaks around properties or neighbourhoods until they stretch the infrastructure past crisis & breaking points of adjoining infrastructure and the water table is less able to deal with severe weather events & increases flooding rates. One property next to our investment had multiple pipes broken and was gushing out with water 24/7, however the property was empty & it remained like that for over a year meaning it is only fit to be demolished now & unliveable.
We have water meters in Christchurch, and very high users are charged extra. I can check my usage on the Water Reporter - I am oscillating between 'low' and 'above average' depending on my watering needs, I guess.
I'd have to increase my water use by ~50% from my high points to attract the additional charge.
By "down South" are you referring to Queenstown? Because in Christchurch there are a million places to buy fruit and veges. Including the regular farmers markets, the wholesale ones that get their produce direct from local farmers, and the multitude of Asian stores (I split between my local Indian one and the local farmer wholesale one). Some didnt survive the Covid shutdowns, so blame Jacinda Ardern for reducing food supplies.
Same in Blenheim when I lived there - maybe a limited number of Asian stores but a great farmers market, plus lots of fruit and veg for sale on FB (used to get my avocados from the guy who sold them out of wheelbarrow in front of his house).
And lastly, most of us live in houses with gardens, and we grow our own fruit and vegetables. I have a grow house for chillies and capsicums, raised vegetable beds for cauliflower, zucchini, tomatoes and salad greens. Apple and pear trees abound. Herbs grow all year round. Maybe Northerners just need to get into gardening?
And the more people, the merrier we all are! Better for the enviroment as well...
Better that we set an upper limit on New Zealand population. Even better if we reduce our total population.
Was once a magic place to live. We are seriously messing it up.
That's a human trait, as evidenced by..... the rest of the planet. Evangelical economic yeasties that put their names forward for election every three years know best though.
It remains interesting to me that the same few countries have sustained economic success. If you believed in a prosperous future in you native Bongobongoland you wouldn't be moving to New Zealand.
It makes you wonder if our understanding of economic development is limited, we don't really understand why countries are failing to develop economically.
we don't really understand why countries are failing to develop economically.
Urrr, yes we do. Suggest you do some research. Start with the World Bank and OECD.
Spoiler alert - we now have around 200,000 people on work visas. The same as we had during the final quarter of 2019. Total work visas are around 8% of total jobs - this figure peaked at 10% in 2019.
So, no drama? Not quite.
A lack of inward migration (aka highly flexible workforce) restrained job growth in early- to mid-2022. When inward migration was turned back on in late-2022, we filled around 50,000 jobs in a few months - mostly the jobs that people either didn't or couldn't do (unsociable hours, care work, crap conditions, working away from home etc). By mid-2023 job growth had stalled but people kept on arriving and they often out-competed longer-stayers for jobs at the precarious end of the labour market. This is when we saw youth and pacific unemployment pick up, followed quickly by wider spread unemployment and benefits claims.
Job growth has now basically stalled, but people are still arriving by the thousand. This is a recipe for unemployment unless the economic stimulus provided by the new jobs is significant. My view is that the impact of closing both the money taps (govt spending and bank lending) will easily suppress the economic stimulus provided by a few thousand extra care jobs. So, we end up with a deepening recession and a migrant community that you can guarantee will be taking the 'blame' for rising unemployment before the year is out.
I think you're spot on Jfoe. As usual - excellent insight.
Not quite the same. Jacinda Ardern gave all of the 210,000 people on work visas permanent residency in 2021. Those people are still in the country and still working. The current 200,000 on work visas are additional to the previous 210,000. All that has happened is that the workers who now have PR are freed from their visa restrictions so have been able to change jobs and location (so are now competing with NZers for normal jobs, and able to move out of regional areas to Auckland) and another 200,000 new immigrants have been imported to do the same jobs as the 210,000 previous immigrants did. The so called "skilled shortage" was simply immigrant workers leaving their visa sponsored employers and going elsewhere.
I think well see more of this, single and double income earners struggling competing against...4-8 income earners for one reasonable home ie we are in a slow moving catastrophe. Its almost a sick joke.
Interesting. Yes, you can see some of that transfer from work visa to residence visa in the data - although it did happen during a long period of hardly any residence visas being granted so there will have been some offsetting. Between 2016 and 20219, things were remarkably stable - with around 50,000 extra jobs created per year, and about 25,000 extra people arrive on work visas. Things are most unstable now!
Kiss goodbye to the kiwi way of life, unless you're already very wealthy.
Whats the kiwi way of life for you. Its got way more vibrant since the 90s IMO
Being connected to the natural environment in someway, whatever that means for each person. Everone having a decent standard of living, with low crime.
Not suggesting we stop migration, population growth is currently too rapid.
Freedom from the heaving masses? The opposite of say, Auckland, Queenstown.
Having stable housing that does not cause severe respiratory failures and affordable food.
If only there was something we could do about it. Maybe build a wall?
We already have a moat. But its useless if the castle holder simply decides to lower the drawbridge and invite the enemy inside.
Liam Dann writes an article on the same stats. Just my opinion of course, but Greg's one here on interest.co.nz wins hands down for background, balance and objectivity. Well done team.
Only go to the Herald for political analysis. Business - NBR, Business Desk or Interest for the rest :)
It’s pretty obvious that Liam is a lightweight who writes populist drivel. I guess that’s the way of the world? The Herald once had some excellent economics journos, such as Brian Fallow.
Welcome aboard.
Don't worry about: housing, roading, water infrastructure, public transport, political representation, school class sizes, our overloaded medical system, societal inequity, power generation, attempts at social engineering, city densification, poor productivity, growth in population as a substitute for development, the narrowness of our economic activity, the strategic risk of long and fragile supply chains, and our isolation from the rest of the world's ideas.
The market will take care of it all!
Yeah. Nah. We seem to incapable of learning.
It all started with alternate sprinkler days. Pretty soon we'll have alternate toilet flushing days. If only we could limit rainfall days to alternating odd and even numbered houses.
No panic, there's plenty of sewerage to recycle, instead of wasting it on the beaches.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/california-approves-rules-…
Auckland can become the LA of the south pacific. Housing problem solved with tent cities. Eventually as quality of life deteriorates and the exodus gathers pace, existing housing will be freed up.
https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/census-shows-l-a-county-exodus-…
Er Auckland already has tent cities. But the fact they are spread out & not all collected in the CBD does mean the news and council does not care about them much. Anything out of the CBD does not bother them. They would hardly start reporting about the homeless in Albany, or Henderson Valley, or Massey, or Drury, or Manukau eh. Apparently homeless people only count when they live in CBD areas.
NZ is just creating a two tier population with crumbling infrastructure. We are training NZers to work in the rest of the world, and importing people that are unskilled. Then you get politicans who want to spend 3 billion + on a tunnel in Wellington because they are sick of wait in traffic to get to Wellington airport. They live on a different planet. But at least they will have tenants for their rentals, and can keep increasing their prices due to the increased demand. .
Its no surprise. Look at where the largest source of immigrants are coming from. Countries with massive populations and hardly an enviable lifestyle for the unskilled.
Immigration numbers wont be coming down.
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