Immigration patterns appear to be settling into a new normal, with much higher levels of inward migration pushing up the net population gain compared to pre-Covid levels.
The graph below shows the main measures of migration - long term arrivals, long tem departures and the net gain or loss of population due to migration, as estimated by Statistics NZ.
It shows migration trends followed very regular seasonal patterns up until 2020, with arrivals mostly staying within the 10,000 to 15,000 bands per month, departures generally staying between 5,000 and 10,000 a month, and the net gain straddling either side of 5000 a month.
Then there was a big jump in migrant arrivals just before the pandemic travel restrictions were put in place and the subsequent massive decline in arrivals as the travel restrictions reduced arrivals to a mere trickle, pushing the net change into a migration loss almost overnight.
Once the travel restrictions were removed, migrant arrivals increased strongly again, while long term departures also increased but not by as much.
That pushed the monthly net gain from migration up past 10,000 a month and it has mostly stayed there ever since, apart from December last year and January this year when there was a sudden dip.
However the graph below suggests that the post-travel restrictions surge has now abated and that migration flows could be settling down again to a regular seasonal pattern, but at higher levels than they were pre-Covid.
Inward migration flows of around 20,000 a month and net monthly gains of more than 10,000 appear to be the new norm, with both figures well up on where they were pre-Covid.
Of course it's still early days and we will have to wait and say if the Government's latest revamp of work visa rules has much effect on the numbers.
Statistics NZ's migration figures also need to be treated with caution because they are not finalised for 16 months and the most recent figures in particular may be subject to significant revisions.
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