Incoming-Prime Minister Christopher Luxon does not seem to be in any great rush to get coalition negotiations wrapped up and a new Government sworn in.
The National Party leader told media on Tuesday that he had been “progressing the relationships and arrangements” with Act and NZ First but didn’t give any more details.
Luxon wants to keep an ultra-tight lid on any information about the coalition negotiations and has been successful so far.
“As soon as we have something to say we’ll say it. But for now it's good to build relationships and goodwill,” he told reporters at the Chelsea Sugar Factory.
The preliminary election results do show National and Act in a position to form a Government without New Zealand First, with 61 seats and a wafer thin majority.
However, most pundits expect the right-leaning coalition to lose at least one seat when special votes are reported next Friday, November 3.
Luxon’s focus on relationship building could mean detailed negotiations haven’t begun and the three parties are just laying the groundwork for when seat numbers are finalised.
Remember that during one of the election debates Luxon said he “doesn’t know” Winston Peters? That will have to change before the pair can strike a deal.
Luxon confirmed they had spoken on the phone but Newsroom reported senior MP Todd McClay was handling the initial talks.
All parties are waiting for the special votes before finalising any arrangements and it is unclear how quickly they could come together once they arrive.
Weeks, not months
There is no time limit for talks and the parties could negotiate for as long as they need. In 2020, elected representatives in Belgium took almost two years to negotiate a coalition.
That’s unlikely to happen here with all parties involved relatively well aligned and keen to get on with it, plus two important international meetings could act as a possible time constraint.
The Pacific Islands Forum and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders meetings are both happening in early November and would be a great opportunity for a new Prime Minister to shake some hands.
But the two events run across the two weeks immediately following the release of special votes, meaning Luxon would only have the weekend to hammer out a final agreement before jumping on a plane to the Cook Islands and then to San Francisco.
He told reporters his team was looking into whether he would be able to attend these events as some sort of Prime Minister-designate, if necessary.
That would obviously delay the swearing in of his new Government by as much as two weeks and could mean it doesn’t happen until December. This is all speculation, of course.
Luxon has said the only non-negotiable ministerial roles are Prime Minister and Finance Minister (Nicola Willis), so the rest are on the table.
New Zealand First could want Foreign Affairs and deputy Prime Minister for Winston Peters, Regional Economic Development for Shane Jones, and plausibly Police for Casey Costello.
Costello had a successful career as a police sergeant and vice-president of the Police Association before running third on NZ First’s party list.
The Act Party could want the newly-created Minister of Regulation for David Seymour, associate Foreign Affairs and Trade for Brooke Van Velden, Agriculture for Andrew Hoggard, and Children for Karen Chhour.
If New Zealand First was kept out of Cabinet, they might get less substantial portfolios such as Racing, Seniors, or Sports.
Leading Labour
Meanwhile, members of the Labour Party are weighing up how to proceed into opposition and the 2026 election.
The New Zealand Herald reported former minister David Parker was sounding out a possible bid for the leadership, presumably to set up a progressive policy platform for 2026.
Parker resigned as Revenue Minister earlier this year when Prime Minister Chris Hipkins ruled out the tax reform he designed with Grant Robertson and government officials.
A wealth or capital gains tax would be unlikely if Hipkins stays on as the leader, and so Parker might want to establish a more left-leaning and technocratic set of policies to take into future elections.
One term governments are rare, and so the next leader’s job will be to make life difficult for the new National government and build a party that can win the 2029 election
27 Comments
Saw a video of the media pack following Winston Peters through the airport. Media shouting stupid questions as he strode along. They had the cheek to label it "Winston Peters refuses to answer 27 questions in media scrum" Brainless activity.
Better it was titled "Media ask 27 useless questions as they harassed Winston Peters" Awful waste of media time. They could do better for us. There would be informative work for them to do elsewhere.
I do like the way Luxon is conducting this and am severely irritated by pointless media speculation instead actual news. They should wait till there is something concrete to report and consider.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/10/18/watch-winston-peters-refuses-to-answ…
The mainstream media's current obvious childish petulance at the incoming Govts refusal to play their silly games stems from their fear of losing their previous direct funding streams of Govt virtue signalling advertising & Labours PIJF propaganda.
Might have to try to remember how to be working journalists instead of "personalities"
Every fool regrets saying too much. Not many of the wise, regret saying too little. However the brat pack, which is the majority of our media, need headlines as a vampire needs blood. Hence just as, in old jargon for example, we had creative accounting now we have creative headlining.
I don't think most would mind so long as they get given the facts and are left to make up there own opinion and have thought provoking discussions with friends and family at gatherings as a result. Instead we get fed slanted opinion pieces everywhere, shock and awe clickbait headlines that don't accurately represent the article topic or tone, and we are shown the fragility of journalism now where everyone gets offended by everything and can't have a rational discussion or debate on key issues. Hence why we come here, for said discussion.
For goodness sake Dan; we haven't even got a final count yet, thanks to the huge number of 'special votes' yet to be tallied.
And why 80,000 overseas voters get to have a say still mystifies me. People on holiday for over four weeks I can understand, but I bet the majority of the overseas votes don't sit within that category.
I’m more baffled that we let non-citizens vote to be honest. You either in like a marriage - citizenship, or de-facto possibly by accident - permanent resident.
I don’t care how people conduct their own personal affairs of the heart but do expect a higher bar when they want a say in the running of our country. Citizenship seems like a low bar to expect for that right.
the process of counting the specials is outdated and needs being brought into the 20th century, why do they need to go back to the electorates first to be counted, would it not be better to send all the votes to one place for double checking and counting of the specials, by the time you send specials from invercargill to the far north or gisborne to dunedin, seems a costly and time consuming process. seems like a process designed by public servants to keep people busy and employed for longer than needed. maybe ACT should look into this process to save some government expenditure.
"We must count special votes in the electorate they were cast for. That’s why the deadline for special votes is 10 days after election day. It gives us time to return special votes to the correct electorate for counting. "
The Herald published an article last week - Election 2023: Why does it take so long to count special votes? - that summarised the often comical and certainly time wasting process, that happens post Election. As someone who has worked through that process, I can only say it's mind blowing in its pedantry. Of course it could and should be speeded up! Remember we only have 3 year election cycles. There is no time to fanny about like your playing some crazy board game! The Electoral Commission, as it refers to in the article, says proudly that it does all the work for the voter so that he/she can make up your mind on the day to vote anywhere in the land and it will/might eventually count. Nevermind the cost and delay to so many concerned.
Why do we do it this way? Because no one seems motivated to bring the process into the 21st century. Of course if we had a population of double or triple what it is today no one would stand for the way it works now. I say try looking at a country like the UK does it.
Of course. The precedent was set by "the most open & transparent Govt ever"
Coalition negotiation document won't be released by Ombudsman | Newshub
The whole voting process should be an App on your phone now, even my 80 year old mother has a smart phone. The full results will be available 5 minutes after the cut off time. The paper and the counting must be an incredibly expensive and time wasting process fraught with errors and the odd fraudulent vote.
I strongly disagree with the view that coalition negotiations should be conducted behind closed doors.
These negotiations are at the heart of our democracy (assuming we want to pretend we have a democracy).
If it can't be said in public, it shouldn't be said. Ideally these negotiations would take place in the debating chamber, so all interested parties could attend or watch (sans inane media).
In a viable democracy, voters need to see the horse trading.
Definitely not a good idea to debate the negotiation publicly, I think it would be antidemocratic as the usual squeaky wheels would get undue & disproportionate media attention & influence. However, the final agreement should be published - which Jacinda refused to do.
Can verify that the number of OIA requests that were declined on incorrect grounds was ridiculous under the previous government, especially when it came to COVID policy decisions from the Ministry of Health. Guarav Sharma tried to reveal this in terms of exposing how staff were told how to subvert requests under certain reasons, sadly he was fighting the machine and had no chance without others willing to back him up and put their jobs on the line for the right cause.
Oh dear , Winston throws Luxon(well everyone really) a curve ball, what to do . and now Gangs applying make up from National.
Are we heading back to the polls??? Surely, if they need NZ first , they will have zero credibility.
Or will it be a minority govt , with the Greens abstaining for some environmental wins?
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