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Christopher Luxon's National Party has swept the electorates and will lead the next Government

Public Policy / news
Christopher Luxon's National Party has swept the electorates and will lead the next Government
National leader Christopher Luxon and his family on election night
National leader Christopher Luxon and his family on election night

The National Party will lead the next government after winning 39% of the vote in a blue wave that swept the country and left Labour decimated.

When all regular votes had been counted early Sunday morning, National had won 45 of the 75 electorates and was set to bring another five list candidates into Parliament. Special votes are yet to come. 

Party leader Christopher Luxon said he’d called Act’s David Seymour to congratulate him on winning Epsom and a total of 11 seats. He did not seem to have called Winston Peters.

“There are many votes still to be counted, but on current numbers it looks like National and Act will be in a position to form a government,” he said in an 11pm victory speech.

Seymour called the result a win but it was a smaller one than some expected. The party only picked up one new MP (for a total of 11) and flipped the Tāmaki electorate..

Act Party leader David Seymour celebrates winning two electorates and eleven seats in Parliament

Later in his speech, Luxon offered his congratulations to Peters, for New Zealand First’s success, and thanked him for his offer to “help where needed”.

An hour later it was looking like it might be needed, as National and Act had just 61 seats between them with 98% of the vote counted by the end of night. 

However, Peters seemed content with eight seats in opposition during his own victory speech.

“In great democracies, the people who are elected must be held to account. Our purpose is to keep them honest and raise the roof when others won’t raise a finger,” he said.

“That’s what New Zealand is going to get out of this election as far as New Zealand First is concerned”.  

Labour’s receding tide

Every party spun some sort of victory speech, except for Labour. There was no silver lining in storm clouds washing the party out of even some of its safest electorates. 

For example, Labour has won the Mount Albert electorate in every election since its creation in 1946. It has given the party three leaders and two Prime Ministers. 

But at midnight on election night, Labour was hanging onto it with a margin of just 103 votes. 

Next door, Mount Roskill and New Lynn turned blue for the first time in history, while the Green Party flipped Wellington Central and Rongotai.

Even voters in Māori electorates were lost. Four of the seven seats were won by Te Pāti Māori and the only decisive win for Labour was against its own former minister, Meka Whaitiri.

It was a complete drubbing for the party, which lost almost half its seats in Parliament and the first outright majority since 1993. 

Turnout was dismal, with less than 60% of enrolled voters actually casting a ballot. Although, that number should rise as special votes are counted.   

Some voters, who rewarded Labour for its early pandemic response, had become dissatisfied as the Reserve Bank lost control of inflation and the social cost of the response was felt.

Others were disillusioned by the party’s slow progress on climate change and tax reform, and opted to vote for the Green Party instead. 

The leftist party underperformed relative to the polls, but still secured a record result with three electorates and 14 members of Parliament.

The Green Party co-leaders celebrate their record win

Green with envy

In an impassioned speech to supporters, co-leader Marama Davidson said the party had “defied history” and “turned Labour strongholds green”.

She criticised Labour for focusing its campaign on attacking National instead of pitching voters a progressive vision for New Zealand. 

It fell to the other co-leader, James Shaw, to concede the left had lost the election. Chris Hipkins followed suit half an hour later and said he had called Luxon to congratulate him. 

“When the tide comes in big, it almost invariably goes out big as well. That is the nature of politics,” Hipkins said. 

The soon-to-be Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon focused his own speech on uniting the country, after a somewhat divisive campaign, as leaders often do.

“To all of those who voted for National: thank you, we won't let you down. And to all of those who didn’t vote for National: we won’t let you down either,” he said. 

“Tomorrow morning, New Zealanders will wake up not only to a new day but the promise of a new government and a new direction … I cannot wait to get stuck in and get to work; because New Zealanders have chosen change and our government will deliver it”. 

Well, good morning, New Zealand. Here's your new Parliament:

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215 Comments

Labour lost a lot of electorates.  Which makes the top of the list (eg Robertson) safer.   But how safe ?

If it had kept electorates, their list would be goneburger (eg Robertson)

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3

Coincidentally the three safe Labour electorates they lost in Auckland were all meant to have light rail by now, instead there isn’t even a spade in the ground. 

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6

Dan's heading is wrong.

People didn't vote for change; they voted for what they once had (or though they could have). This MAGA-NZ; same frustration, same misdirection. 

BACK ON TRACK is not CHANGE. 

But the train has left the station; external Systemic events will over-power anything this wide-eyed mantra-chanting incoming lot, attempt. 

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29

it looks like one of the lowest turnouts in history so i would suggest auckland didn't vote to punish labour for the covid lock downs . a lot of labour held areas in south auckland only had about 60- 70% of voters turn out.

 

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Turnout was 78.4%, less than 2020 and 2017, but more than 2014 and 2011

The number above doesn't include the half a million special votes

https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/election-night-results-for-the…

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3

Of course South Auckland didn't punish Labour for the lock downs. Firstly, they didn't have to work and got paid, secondly, their social life didn't suffer. 

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you've got what you wanted, you can cut the shit throwing now. 

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Thanks Solar, but you'd do better directing that at those supporting the left on this site.

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My sentiment exactly.  The GNATs have romped in because many just wanted Labour out.

Doesn't make much difference - years back we had already borrowed almost as much as we could, constrained by NZ's fairly average income, and used it to bid up land prices.  The Fed called the shots before the election and will continue to.  The Beehive now only controls a few fiddly bits around the edges and can largely be ignored.  We will limp on selling assets to foreigners and using ag exports to pay the interest on our debt piles as long as the oil flows.  If any of that breaks then things will rearrange themselves.

Traditionally a new government gets a honeymoon period where everyone looks forward to the changes they make and lets them get on with it.  It's fiddle about time, but NZ will still look like the above no matter what they do.

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26

Only time will tell, but National have clearly different policies to Labour on Health, Transport, Law and Order, Education and Agriculture. Now the election is over, I hope people can get behind the government that has been voted in, and reunite the country.

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Who are you to interpret and demean the vote democratically expressed by the majority of voters - or maybe you can read their mind ? If you do not like democracy, or if you like it only when it goes your way, you can always go to Venezuela or North Korea, I am sure  you will like it there. 

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Voting in ignorance is voting in ignorance, as you demonstrate. 

But as to the result, Rob Reid is right - it'll make diddly-squat difference. 

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"this wide-eyed mantra-chanting incoming lot, attempt." Therein lies the problem though. They'll tear the place to pieces in the "attempt".  

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Let the restart of the House Ponzi begin.

Bad,Bad move

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They would only vote if offered some KFC or a prezzy card.

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29

or if they felt compelled and connected to the messaging. But thanks for the racist trope. 

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Nothing racist. TPM commented that they had run out of food on some marae where voting occurred. I thought that would be illegal ie an enticement 

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And pressie cards???

If you had ever been to a marae , you would know that they provide Kai on most attendances. It would be considered rude not to . If its not paid for by the taxpayer , whats the problem . 

Also a bit rich considering we were bombarded by the 2 main leaders dishing up sweets to all and sundry . 

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That's not what BecsNZ's comment is referring to.

 

 

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Perhaps the Indian community in those electorates voted for National.

I know they’re sick and tired of the robberies and ram raids. 

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and you think National are going to stop them?

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19

But there’s the hope in an alternative, right, and things could hardly get worse…. Or maybe they could

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Yup, boot camps will make it all better. 

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Exactly. Much more important than a tram. 
I wish Labour had focussed much more on health and education than pet projects like Light Rail.

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We can jam another 100000 people a year on the motorway? Well it seems like National think we can so I guess we’ll find out, but i reckon I already know the outcome. 

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No one says the cars have to move, they just have to fit on the road.

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Sorry House, but Hipkins claimed in the debates that they DID focus hugely on health and education. Remember him taking a stab at Luxon asking if spending $200m extra on health was wasted? The answer was yes, it was wasted, as every health metric got worse. Same in education. Just goes to show, just throwing money at Government portfolios doesn't work. Unfortunately, Labour haven't figured that out. After god knows how many tries doing the same thing....

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oh well, Labour had pushed the co-governance for Maori, and Maori electorate have ditched Labour. 

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Actually it now looks like Labour will win Mt Albert and perhaps Te Atatu. So maybe that list isn’t so safe. 
Michael Wood was punished big time!

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and rightly so. Biggest waste of space

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.

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Unfortunately most of the socialism will still be there, in fact if Winnie is needed expect some extra socialism (for example he wants a 50% rates rebate for his voters).
The socialism will be moved from the poor to the rich; for example they are building roads but not increasing fuel tax, and they are allowing property investors to pay no tax to supposedly reduce rents. 

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They will have to bring WP/NZF on side I would suggest. They will pick up one seat with Pt Waikato but the TPM overhang negates that. Also they need to find a speaker. A one or even two seat majority is simply too thin to run a government on.

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They would be wise to keep the current speaker 

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I thought so too even if it wasn’t necessary, but was he not too far down the list to survive?

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Labour won only 17 electorates and therefore 17 list places.

Speculation on Friday based on polling is that they might only get 5-6 list places.

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I see Mr Rurawhe is at #11. Not sure if that brings him back as it stands but if some Labour electorates do return to them after the special votes or even recounts, believe that will push him further out of the count? He would be a loss to parliament, steady with dignity, respected from all sides of the house. More mps like that would be welcome.

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He was a good Speaker. If he gets in Luxon should offer him speaker again instead of Brownlee or some such. Or offer it to Winston. Dreams are free.

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the first article that popped up on my feed last night was an investor saying investors and the real estate industry are very happy 

'Everyone involved in real estate is very happy at the moment' | Stuff.co.nz

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The party is back on. I knew I should have bought an investment property prior to the election, probably too late to now. If you can’t beat them join them. 

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The numbers still don't stack up to purchase an investment property with interest rates being what they are, unless you are a cash buyer, or have 30% or more equity.

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The numbers failed to stack up a long time ago unless you were purchasing for capital gains.

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Yet thousands of investors purchased during the past 6 years, so the numbers must have added up for those people.

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I’m going to get my RE licence, weekend side hustle boy! Kiwi’s have voted for real estate.

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Thank you everyone!!! What a day, an AB win for the ages, interest deductibility back and bright line essentially scrapped. 

Could it be any better?

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National party and All Blacks are two sides of the coin, they always win together:)

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Not unless the rapture happens and takes all the property investors away?

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Given the christian, religious leanings of some in power one might think the rapture favours the property investors?

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You mean like funding sheep farms in Saudi Arabia?

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So are we still on for 15k job cuts in Wellington? That's going to be brutal if so

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Who will do all the policy work National has signalled?

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the same people that did their costings, magicians, it will be interesting to see which ministries ACT end up with, imagine waking up this morning and finding out you have an ACT minister so at least 15% of you will lose your jobs if they follow through. 

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Business NZ 

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Outside consultants. Notwithstanding what Luxon said, outside policy consultants will be back in full swing in about six months. Family member knows a policy consultant in a consulting firm and their work drops off 3-6 months before an election and starts picking up 3-6 months after, irrespective whether its Labour or National.

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That's going to be brutal if so

You mean beautiful, right?

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I know everyone likes to go on about bloated bureaucracy, and probably imagines a bunch of overpaid workers spinning around in office chairs all day.  But the reality is a lot of them are just every day people with jobs, probably have a mortgage, kids at school etc.  They didn't hoodwink the taxpayer into a cushy job, many would have responded to a job advertisement.  

If the 15k headcount cull is by way of redundancies, well I'm not sure that's really something to celebrate.  

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I guess that’s the risk you take with those jobs though. They will probably come back as contractors anyway. 

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It's the risk you take with any job.  But still, not something to celebrate.

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Might help with the inflation however

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Completely agree.   I always find it fascinating when people use terms like "bureaucrats" and "the government" as if they are some alien race of overpaid stooges.  These are your neighbours, the guy next to you on the bus, or the parents of your kid's mates at school. Many in the public sector face a daily barrage of insults and threats on social media, not because of something they've done, but because of who they work for.  And, they still show up for work the next day.  How many of us in the private sector would put up with that?  

 

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Hard to know. Last time they couldn’t find enough people to sack and had to pay for their tax cuts through the GST switch. This time there are a lot of people in Kaianga Ora they will axe (building houses is not in their voters interest), and MBIE (again probably related to housing). 

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Yeah, they're going to face a bit of a Liz Truss moment as soon as they implement those unfunded tax cuts.

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Oh sour grapes taste soooo sweet

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Plenty of jobs at KFC and Maccas need filling.

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Have these 15k jobs provided better services, improved outcomes and good value for all the money spent ? No. So why should they be retained ? There are better ways to use such resources - human and financial. 

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And a very high proportion of public sector bloating over the last 5 years have been straigh out "diversity" hires.  

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27% of NZ is foreign born. It is hard to not be diverse in NZ these days.

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Maybe they were needed just to keep the lights on. It's anyone's guess how outcomes will change after letting them go, it seems unlikely that they will improve or even stay the same

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I have quite a few contractor mates working for the government.  Those in "hard" roles (e.g. doing the unified health system build or immigration systems - IT people) expect to keep their jobs.  The problem is their work program is often a decade long, you aren't unifying the currently disparate health systems all over the country in a couple of years. Nobody could, no matter what you did or who you employed.  If National wants to cancel big pieces of work like that, all good, but when people start dying because health system records aren't easily transferrable between places, they might get some flak or have second thoughts.  And if they see such a system through, it will result in far better frontline outcomes and a lot less back end overhead/staffing costs in the long run (a-laa our new Tax System).  Many of the people I know switch between these massive work programs as contractors because they are only needed for 1-3 years, then its onto the next big one for another government agency.

My point is, it doesn't matter who is in power, ministries will have the same problems they have currently got.  Changing who is in the executive branch does not change that. I can see the logic of doing away with certain ministries that they consider superfluous and maybe cutting contractor count down for roles like Business/Policy Analysts which could maybe be internal roles.  Plus the bloated Coms departments that have exploded under Labour.  

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As long as the cut is in back office, and not front line.

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You misunderstood how job cuts work in Wellington. of the 15K, some are vacant positions that not going to be filled, some are people natually leaving, some are hardcore restructure. so the real numbers of that '15k' are much smaller.

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I can see a bump in the property market from the election but also feel the sugar hit will wear off. Especially if a few more investors decide to dump property once the bright line rules change. 
 

The economics of owning a property, even with interest deductibility, just don’t work. Without confidence in capital value growth the reward isn’t there.

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Labour lost it. The votes they lost went everywhere ... Except to ACT. (This made me laugh out loud.)

Hopefully, National and NZ Inc. realise that the new government does not have a mandate to do some of the more outrageous things those on the right of ACT, NZF, National, etc. would like.

Lots of special votes to be counted. All the polling stations I saw over the last week had queues, some quite long, with people either logging specials or who had lost/forgotten their 'quick vote' cards. The special votes usually favor the left. But this time Labour may not be beneficiaries with the Greens et al taking more. Three seats where margins are small may change.

On the plus side ... The next election might finally become a referendum on fixing our thoroughly distortional tax system. Oh well. I live in hope.

Ho. Hum. Second half starting ... A gripping and even game. (Unlike our election.)

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The next election might finally become a referendum on fixing our thoroughly distortional tax system.

 

And what a fix that might have to be if National come up short on their heroic projections regarding 'alternate' revenues. . 

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I don't think there's any real "if" about that.

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Well I called it. Not quite a landslide but close enough. Still think that National leaving the door open for Winnie was a mistake, clearly NZF only just made the threshold but it was a hard call. Hope now is that National/ACT retain the majority after special votes so Winnie cannot be anywhere near as demanding if they decide to take him on board. There is a by-election in November that National will win so National are very much in the box seat.

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Special votes tend to favour the left 

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That said, the Left vote also shrank, so nothing may change.

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Everyone called it! The only question was whether Winnie would be kingmaker or not, that question is still unanswered. 

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That's funny coming from an obvious Labour supporter. Sorry but not everyone called it, most not even prepared to call it here on an anonyms forum.

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You also called Labour getting the same number of votes as ACT as well as it being the biggest landslide ever, both not correct as yet:  

by Zwifter | 8th Sep 23, 4:24pm

This election will be an embarrassment for Labour when they get the same number of votes as ACT. Biggest ever landslide is coming, I think even the people that know that Labour are going to lose are in for a shock. 

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13

I think Labour's win last election would rank as NZs biggest landslide.  But, the electorate expected Labour to capitalise on that and they didn't. 

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It may not be the outcome I wanted (I would have preferred Labour or National without ACT) but that doesn’t mean I didn’t predict this result. Did you see any polls, there was almost no chance of any other outcome. 

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Anyone hear Chloe crowing about their results? Get a few extra seats but outside Government. Only a positive if you have a fellow MP who is new to the gravy train.

Took some pleasure in Labour getting trounced. 

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A minor party winning 3 electorates is a pretty big deal. The greens did bloody well, it’s labour that failed big time. 
ACT did well with 2 electorates (although National gift them one and effectively gift them the other), but they must be disappointed with their party vote which may mean a 3 way coalition. 

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I think as soon as NZ First started polling consistently over 5% the writing was on the wall for ACT getting a bigger % of the party vote (as they had previously polled). There would have been a decent amount of ACT's new support base that ultimately aligns better to NZ First - also opposed to co-governance, tougher on crime etc but without the more extreme economic policies. Certainly I know a few friends/family who went to NZ First from ACT once they realized their vote wouldn't be wasted. 

ACT did alright all things considered, particularly as their candidates seemed to be subjected to the greatest degree of scrutiny by the media. Seymour cocked up monumentally though in his tough guy negotiation stance with National, as well as picking on Peters only to wind up giving him more media airtime. 

Re: Greens, I can see why they are celebrating. At the same time, Swarbrick came across as genuinely unhinged last night ... wonder what they put in the vol-au-vents at the Green's party HQ. Shaw was classy as usual though.

As I think NZ Herald the headline today "something for everybody to celebrate except for Labour". 

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The Greens did moderately well. However, they are not in government,  and they only managed 10% of the vote. As a socialist party, they should have done better in picking up votes from disillusioned Labour supporters. 

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AND REMEMBER….National in power… Allblacks win…

Nature loves competition…not socialism 

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Nature actually shows the exact opposite.

Wolves, lions, sheep, cows, wildebeest, whales, dolphins, mice, bees, ants, etc. all band together and work towards common goals and the common good. The number of animals that act in isolation is extremely limited. And even plants work together in many situations.

Yes, there is competition between species. Is your comment based upon this? In which case, your comment is likely incorrect as many species actually work together, e.g. plant eaters on Africa herding to provide mutual warning systems, bees and plants, etc.

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Nice :-) There's a severe lack comments understanding ecology here. 

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Yep, humans programmed to compete and then cast that lense onto Nature.

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Animals compete pretty bloody hard for mates. 

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All the parties are socialist, they just socialise the money to different groups. ACT are probably the most socialist, but you need to have property in Epsom or Tamaki to get the benefits. 

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I think a few people need a ‘Socialism 101’ course….

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Yeah. Maybe this is why we have shithouse politics. A lack of understanding the basics. 

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I knew you would pick up on that. Can you think of a better term for what we were meaning? 

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I wasn’t referring to your comment more the misdirected rantings of how socialism is now over. 
I don’t believe this National government is any less socialist than the last government. If they are they’re only fiddling about the margins. 
But I don’t agree that ACT are the more socialist. 

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i heard someone say the allblacks only win the world cup when national are in power so looked it up and uh oh first rugby world cup was won under david lange 

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Actually, in nature the overshoot/collapse form is all too common. 

And we are in overshoot....

Which means....

I doubt this lot will understand what's breaking over them, even when it breaks. 

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All NACT have, is cramming more humans into NZ from parts of the planet nearer collapse. It'll keep our creditors happy even while GDP per capita disappears down the toilet.                                         

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I wonder if the all blacks win the cup whether there will analogies drawn between NZRU sticking with Foster, and what could have been if NZ had stuck with a LOC government...  

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I think the lesson for Labour here is that : if a tooth fairy comes to you and grants you lots of wishes and sprinkles some magic dust around - make sure it is real and you have not been dreaming......Sarcasm intended

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How can they govern with such a slim majority of 61 seats? Lose a couple of MPs to scandals or what not and they are screwed?

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Depending on the special votes and the by-election result, National may not have to give much to Winnie to get him in. Best case I think it will be a confidence of supply agreement with NZF in which Luxon gives them bugger all but picks up their 8 seats.

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Doesn't sound like Winston one little bit :-).

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Chances are increasing that Nationals pro-property policies/promises might well be postponed or even ditched altogether. All on the grounds of fiscal responsibility. 

The truth is that their tax policies are straight up unaffordable to begin with. 

With current interest rates, insurance and Council rates, from an investment perspective, property investment still wouldn't stack if interest deductibility was restored. 

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Sounds like wishful thinking on your part, rather than anything else.

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No - not at all. Just putting some reality out there. This is not the only unfunded promise National made - just to get elected. It's truly unbelievable. 

New Zealand has too much debt now. The interest bill on that debt is rising with each passing day. We cannot earn prosperity selling overpriced houses to one and other. 

Are you willing to pay more tax to cover the shortfall? Something has to give. 

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Labour certainly have thrown a hospital pass to National. 

We will see what unfolds in the next 12 months. 

In the meantime, I will respect your opinion.

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...and I yours :)

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and those of us that have been around a long time know that a national MP will screw up and there will be a byelection.  the problem for national is they only have 4 list seats so you can't just replace people like ACT NZ first the greens or labour.

JK got rid of five in his time 

Eight NZ politicians who were forced to resign - NZ Herald

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That bully that thinks beating up a much younger boy with a bed leg would be a good start. Leopards and bullies aren't known for changing their spots. Methinks Luxon will live to regret his 'look the other way' leniency.

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Indeed that was a mistake.  No reason for it either to my mind.

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20 plus years later does Uffindell show signs of being a bully 

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He was probably the same age as Cindy was when she worked at the Fish and Chip shop everyone likes to bring up.  If working in a fish and chip shop as a teenager is fair enough to discredit/disqualify someone for politics as many suggest, then so is beating up kids 2 years younger with wooden bed legs.  Major difference is it's not illegal to work in a fish and chip shop.  

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There’s going to be a lot said about the balls up with the voting procedures over the last couple of days. Massive queues due to not having enough ballots, online system failing. My fiancé got asked to go to another voting place as they ran out of ballots. 

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My wife and I had to go to another poling location because they ran out of forms. It was a shambles to say the least.

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Will this outfit exercise the 'one dollar, one vote' power behind our new government?

New BlackRock office to take NZ presence up a gear

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Yup, suspect they'll capitalise big time on our infrastructure deficit. Chris Luxon explained as much in the final debate - National will move all LG 3 Waters infrastructure into CCOs with a public-private (mixed ownership) model and the money will be made available via BR.

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National will be selling of public assets to fund their tax cuts. (Just like Key did.)

Blackrock will be here to take a slice of the action ... Once ANZ has finished, that is.

Who does Sir John Key work for again?

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Exactly. I said to the other half when the media was banging on about Nat's fiscal no's not adding up, remember John Key. 

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A great day, Labour out and the AB's in!

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It will be a better day if Winnie is out too. 

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Do you really apply the handbrake? I'd sooner trust Wayne Barnes than Peters..even after Smith's yellow card.

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Wayne Barnes called it a knock on, and the TMO called it a deliberate knock on (which it clearly wasnt) and a yellow card.

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Thank goodness the adults are back in charge

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Still plenty of ideological green and Maori Party nutters, and way too many Labourite socialists.

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The biggest flawed ideology - by some orders of magnitude - was the assertion that endless growth was possible on a finite planet. 

In light of that, you comment is a strawman one. 

Socialism was just a fight to re-distribute growth to a different echelon; growth is leaving us for physics reasons, and pretty much none of them have appropriate policies

Although the Greens are closer than anyone else. The 1975 Values Party manifesto is orders of magnitude closer that the current Green iteration.  

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Labour upset its supporters by mandatory vaccine’s, overdoing lockdowns and talking to the country as if they were five year olds which caused many to not trust them with any the power of government. Hopefully now New Zealand will again start to prosper and be more united.

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What facts is your reckon based on? Getting the majority in the 2020 election was a massive vote of confidence in our world leading response to the covid pandemic.

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Thank goodness the landlords are back in charge.

There, fixed it for you!

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If you watch any of the Parliament TV it's bloody hard to spot the adults.

A few steps below kindergarten children IMO. Kindergarten children could probably do a better job and make more sense.

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 USA politics makes NZ politicians look smart in comparison!!!!!!

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Hah yeah right.. how long until the first scandal?

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How did TOP go folks? 😊 Have your wasted votes been proportionally distributed amongst the other parties yet?

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I feel sorry for Raf. Hamish Campbell seems nice enough, but he is just another example of the generic National cookie cutter candidate. 

I would have definitely voted for Raf if I was still in the Ilam electorate, even though I'm yet to be convinced on LVT versus targeting realised capital gains and realised equity release. Raf deserved a go in parliament IMO just on the basis of offering some fresh thinking and a level of intellect that seems missing from most politicians, irrespective of party. 

However, Ilam was always going to be a tall order for an LVT proponent, considering there are a lot of property owners both in the higher-end suburbs like Fendalton, and areas like Burnside with smaller houses on big parcels of land, who would be negatively impacted and the student vote always tends to go to the Green party.

As for the TOP party itself, maybe it's time for a coup de grace or at least a massive change in direction. They've had three elections with minimal improvement. Perhaps time for a rebranding at least, to shake the past associations with the cat-hater, and a renewed focus on going to war against property investment and speculation (even if that means telling the party faithful to get over their obsession with LVT) potentially focusing on a slightly older, more politically-mature demographic e.g. mid 20s-40s rather than competing for the youth vote with the Greens. 

I'd like to see TOP represented, but "something's gotta give" at this point. 

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It always felt a bit weird for TOP to be targeting an electorate that would probably be net losers from their tax switch. They should be targeting working class suburbs and rural areas. That and I think they need to takes sides more and be clear who they are sticking up for: workers, renters and the future. The reality is that "evidence based", "economically efficient" policy just doesn't sell outside a tiny highly educated technocrat bubble 

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Yeah I wonder if an electorate like Wigram might be better, then again that is about as a red as Ilam is blue ... real "people's republic of Chch" territory. However, I'd imagine - based on local knowledge - that there are more renters in Wigram, the houses and land don't tend to be so big so may not be as negatively impacted by LVT etc.

Or ditch the electorate-focused approach altogether and have a concentrated tilt at the 5% party vote but with a simple set of policies that appeal to a few key hot button topics (i.e. what one Winston Raymond Peters is the absolute master at doing, e.g. this election with bathroom issues and Covid mandates). 

Fundamentally, I think TOP has always tried to act 'above its station' and pretended to be a big party when it is, in fact, a tiny one. On the other hand, if the party could refocus around attacking the societal ill that is leveraged property speculation, along with a couple of other key pillars (such as growing the productive, high value private sector e.g. tech as opposed to NACT's 'skilled immigration' i.e. baristas and gas station attendants, or Labour/Greens belief that everyone deserves to earn $150k PA working for the government in an office doing nothing) it could do well.

 

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Good thoughts, dumbthoughts.

There is also this NZ Loyal party now.  Don't know much about them but combining with them might help get a step closer to 5%.

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Like I said a few days ago, there is not proportional representation on this website. Going by the numbers of TOP supports on here they should have won the election but they failed to even make a dent when it came down to it.

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Sometimes I feel like this website is the TOP subreddit 

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Even funnier is how much Loyal NZ got. TOP run a massive electorate focused campaign and barely get more than an absolute fringe lunatic.

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I [was] a TOP supporter, and I predicted they wouldn't get in. For some unknown reason they decided to only stand in a handful of electorates, and rely on Raf's 'personality' leadership to get them over the line. It's no newsflash - Raf is not a leader. I watched him at a number of events, and he always focused on his favourite people. An hour into one party, he'd spoken to three people - that's just not how you lead.

Relying on Ilam alone was a dumb decision, reflecting a belief in a personality cult that just didn't exist.

Allowing more local candidates would've almost certainly resulted in a greater party vote result, just through exposure.

OTOH - the 5% threshold needs to be abolished - I'm sure there are people who wanted to vote TOP, but didn't, because they saw the vote as wasted.

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Labour should have pulled their candidate - RAF was a strong second. But they were too proud/stuck in the old ways this time around to do an Epsom. Funny, had Labour adopted TOPs tax policies (even choosing to leave the family home out of it), what a different night it would have been.

What the election result suggests to me is that there was substantial growth in support for the parties offering a tax system that captured capital, and reduced tax on labour. Both Jacinda and Chippy made the wrong 'captain's calls' on it.  What they need to do with both TPM and Greens is come up with a consensus position on tax going into the next election.  Then, NZers will actually believe tax reform is truly possible. 

 

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And that sums up Labour’s fundamental failure.

Just a bunch of woke, virtue-signalling ‘Champagne socialists’.

From my point of view, good riddance to Chippy as well as Jacinda.

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Define "substantial": from the summary above, Greens & TPM going from 12 to 18 seats (including 4 racist separatist ones) out of a 121 seat parliament is less than 15 % of total voter support. While Labour lost 31 seats.

Having said that, I previously made a comment agreeing with you that a common tax theft policy is exactly what Labour Greens TPM will bring to the next election. These parties have proven over the last 3 years that they cannot & will not offer NZdrs anything else except socialist dependency on other peoples money.

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That old 'other people's money' mantra is so far from reality.  Have a look at marginal tax rates.  Look at the $2 billion in tax savings National has budgeted for via changing the indexing of benefits.

It's not about other people's money but a fairer tax system altogether.

No one wants 'your money' (if you have any) - everyone just wants a more equitable tax system.  Ours is one of the most inequitable in the OECD as we have no capital taxes to speak of; high marginal tax rates on labour and a comparatively high rate of consumption tax. 

 

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If TOP had dropped LVT, they may have got into parliament. They have some good policies,  but LVT isn't one of them.

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Clearly you have ever employed your brain Kate to invest. I have since the age of 18. I went to buy a BMW the other day and an investment moved enough latter in the day to cover what I will outlay. Entrphy. PS. You really annoy me. As a woman I actually feel insulted at your arrogrance.

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I'm not sure which is more clever of you... Your investment savvy or your throwing of insults... Might need a cleaning of the mirror...

Out of interest to improve my own investment knowledge. Did you realise the gains to purchase said vehicle or did you borrow?

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Why would you buy a BMW ? 

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PS. You really annoy me. 

The pleasure is all mine :-). 

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The real trick is to buy that BMW 20 years from now.

Latest Model BMW < BMW from 2 generations ago

Seriously though why would you buy a BMW, you'd have to be a complete diot.

ᴸᶦᵏᵉ ᵐᵉ...

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Of the e30, 36, 46 and e39 it’s the e30 that I’ve kept. The e36 was good the e39 was trouble and the e46 was brilliant. The e30 is the most fun but I did stick a v8 in it so yeah. 

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Can't beat a clean e30, especially with a v8 in it...

Heavily biased here, but In terms of value, I don't think you can beat an E46 at the moment, they're stupidly cheap, heaps of parts around, and super easy to work on with a great community full of resources. Yeah the fuel economy could certainly be better and in stock form, I wouldn't call them particularly fast, but if you want a cheap RWD good handling car there's little else out there that can compete. 

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Tech has moved on you no longer need RWD. The modern performance car has the E-Diff with torque vectoring. Never thought I would say this but having just bought one I can confirm you can go back to FWD. Combined with the massive improvements in tires over the last 10 years you get a simpler and lighter car.

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I dunno I still think there are some fundamental advantages to RWD, hence why it’s still used in more premium vehicles. The main one is weight distribution typically being much better, better ability to put the power down due to weight transfer, and separating your drive wheels from steering eliminates weird torque steer stuff. 
 

Hard to say if they fixed it since I haven’t driven many newer cars but from my perspective, I like RWD and 50/50 weight distribution, just makes the car feel fantastically well-balanced and rotates around corners rather than that heavy front end feeling most FWD cars I’ve driven feel like.

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And besides ya can’t rip a mean as skid in a FWD. 

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The most important part 😎

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The joy of having my E36 328i sideways in the wet under very modest throttle (even in snow mode) due to slightly bad rear trailing arm bushes.  

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The theft is that income is taxed but capital gain is not. This means income earners pay more than their fair share of tax. 

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Pretty much every adult in New Zealand has an income that is taxed, and NZ has a progressive income tax system which is recognized to be a fair way for income to be taxed. 

 

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It's not so much the income tax on its own, it's the absence of any other form of taxation. Yeah, we have GST and a few other revenue streams but the vast majority of the tax burden is on income earners, which is unique in comparison to basically all other OECD nations which typically have some form of asset/capital gains tax. 

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Kate, are you talking of taxing capital or capital gains, as the two are quite different?

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Either way, if the 'other people's money was rentier-obtained from other people, 

then it was other other people's money, not other people's money...

Funny how so many justify themselves...

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Or maybe my home was bought with money I have earned from my job, and have already paid 33% or 39% income tax. Some idealists want to then tax what I have acquired through work.

And renters don't pay for the costs associated with  a rental property, probably 30% of the costs at best.

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I like the way pdk puts it - rentier capital, whether a material gain is realised via asset sale/transfer or not.

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Most of us have been "rentiers" at times in our lives. 

We're not stopping anyone from doing what we've done. It was never easy.

 

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Nobody wants to tax what you've acquired through work - although disproportionate tax on labour income does exactly that, as does the bank lending system. Many just understand that much of the gains do not come from your work.

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Define "work"

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The way I see it, there are two types of work: "working" in the present and "worked" in the past tense. Between the two, "working" holds significantly more importance for our economy and overall survival, yet it's subjected to much higher taxation. We simply can't rely solely on people who put in the effort but then stop without contributing further, all the while benefiting immensely from the society around them. The current system has functioned reasonably well so far, thanks in part to immigration and high birth rates ensuring an ever-growing population, but with shrinking demographics, it's becoming increasingly unsustainable.

We have generations of hardworking individuals who have diligently paid taxes throughout their lives, but it's not like these tax revenues were set aside and saved; instead, they were mostly spent during people's lifetimes to support our society. Some funds were allocated to vital infrastructure, arguably not enough, but the majority went to various services and societal needs.

This setup has been functional, but it's becoming increasingly unsustainable due to shifting demographics and asset prices dramatically outpacing wages. In order for any of it to be tenable in the future, something will have to change; otherwise, the system will continue to degrade further.

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STV voting for electorates would have been interesting in Ilam. (and for other parties unlikely to reach 5%)

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“The Voice” also decimated in Australia. A resounding loss for separatism in Australasia last night.

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We have to do the same for NZ

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WTF the Voice result was a straight out confirmation of how racist Australia is.

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National must be pretty dissapointed in that election.

WIth 20% of votes still to be counted, will all the leftie leaders swallow a dead rat and be on the phone to Ol' winnie should 1 or 2 seats swap hands.

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it will be a 122 seat overhung parliament, they will gain the port waikato seat to get to 62 but might lose one on specials to fall back to 61 so cannot govern without WP, not surprised luxon didn't know as he is a novice is this area and was relying on those around him to advise on the situation. 

meanwhile Winston is at the duke of Malbrough smiling like a Cheshire cat

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Luxon played the odds and as he got to reply second on the debate after Hipkins clearly and without hesitation calling a "NO" to NZF, he may have even changed his position right there in a split second to leave the door open. My opinion is that decision caused NZF to get over the 5% but of course Winnie will not see it that way because he thinks of himself as as the best in the game and it was all his hard work.

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Actually my other half, following the Jack Tame interview with Peter's, a forever National voter gave his party vote to NZF and his electorate vote to ACT.

Reading the tea leaves wrong.

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I think there will be public outrage if Winnie tries to go with Labour now. Hipkins said "NO" so how are they going to pitch it as being acceptable ? Let me guess roll Hipkins and instate someone who did not say "No" and suddenly its ok ? 

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You seem to be joining with those folk who are quite happy to ignore the fact that NZ First has repeatedly stated that they will not be going with Labour, and this is visible on their website equally as prominent as their 2023 election policies. And moreover, that was stated as far back as

"Our commitment to you is:
New Zealand First will not return Labour to power whether in coalition or confidence and supply.
We will not work with any party that promotes racism and separatism.
We will not work with any party that threatens freedom and democracy."

https://www.nzfirst.nz/2023_election_commitment

On 2022-11-19 it was reported that: 'New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has revealed a coalition with Labour is off the cards because "they can't be trusted".'

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/11/nz-first-leader-winston-peters-rules-out-coalition-with-labour.html

How many times does something like that need to be explicitly and prominently stated by multiple people?

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What you say seems to be true.

National is not looking that strong unless they can rope in Winston and NZF. Good luck with that one. No one has ever got Winnie to play their game. So now Luxon will have two 'oppositions' to deal with: the left block and the limelight seeking Winnie from within.

But the biggie is that voting turnout looks to be very low. In the electorates I've analysed thus far - all in Auckland - it seems many Labour voters simply didn't vote, thereby handing some electorates to others.

But, as you correctly point out, there is a sizable number special votes still to be counted. And still quite a few previously Labour seats that could swing back to the left.

I'd recommend Labour and the Greens don't swallow rats. They need to regroup and come up with a reformist tax policy that is palatable to the electorate in general and run hard on that in three years time. And I don't need to add that by three years National's tax plan to sack public servants - actually less contracts renewed rather than sackings - to give tax cuts to landlords and the already comfortable will go down like a cup of cold sick. (But will National & ACT sack that many? I doubt it. It looks more like a con job to me.)

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Between lower enrolment and lower voting , it is down about 5 %.

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For reasons why people turned against Labour, why not mention their social engineering attempts?

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laughs in tax refund

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That Wellington voted so very green suggests an activist public service that will be resistant to implementing the will of Parliament.

There is precedent: think about the changes to Three Waters where the redrafted legislation didn't match the deal the politicians had worked out, so the responsible department received a strong reprimand from the State Services Commission.

I wonder how that resistance is going to be dealt with? There have been suggestions in this forum of a large scale-down of the public service, and I wonder if some of the departments would have functions re-located to the provinces if the departments prove to be too troublesome.

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the Greens base is not public servants , I can tell you that . 

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Wellington Central & Wellington Council results are from students at VUW: = few responsibilities, mortgages, jobs & bank of mum & dad

 

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Educated , probably not many that don't believe in dinosaurs. 

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Indoctrinated: probably many that believe in woke.

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Sack the lot of them…weed out the useless 

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Oh well, I will look on the bright side, circa $40 extra pw coming our way, lol

might just cover weekly inflation next year

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at least my house value will go up but then will so will my auckland rates once they cut the money from central government and wayne has to find some money to fill the hole in the budget, not much left to sell in auckland maybe watercare, rest of auckland airport, ports of auckland

lucky dont drive much so wont need to worry about congestion charges

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Watercare will be one of the first to be sold off. And Auckland's water bills will rise even further! (They've applied the Rule of 72 to ensure the costs double. Anyone notice that? No? Asleep again huh?) 

Watercare was neatly 'packaged' by Hyde under Key's National Party direction specifically for this purpose.

3 Waters (dropping the so unnecessary Maori stuff) was actually a very good idea and would have saved NZ Inc millions and stopped this from happening. Alas now, we'll be exporting millions in profits instead. Well done NZ. (Nice people, but as dumb as dirt. Like taking candy from a baby.)

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You can’t state “dropping the so unnecessary Maori stuff” and then tell people they are dumb for not supporting it.

What you propose was not an option. 

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a few outcomes of the night, this was the smallest vote for the two major parties for awhile

Acts party vote collapsed as NZF grew so that would suggest they target those voters once winston retires (which he will never) or is no longer around.

the greens vote grew even though they were in government which is normally the opposite for a minor party as they take most of the blame of any government.

looks like MMP is coming of age as the minor parties are now are seen as a viable option to vote for together the 4 parties took 30% of the vote

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National to follow thru and gas a big pile of civil servant space cadets. Wouldn't want to be a specuvestor in the Wellington as mortgage/rent payments cannot be made.

Happy to see the money sent to front line services.

 

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Have they signalled much more going to frontline services?

 

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Don't think so - as I read it, the Vote savings made in the back office will be 'banked' as opposed to redistributed to frontline services.

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that and all government departments for the next 3 years will only get an increase in operating costs to match inflation, so for any pay raises to go above that head count will need to decrease. no wonder nurses, doctors, teachers, police fought extra hard this term to lock in some rise above inflation. 

 

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Are we all assuming that 20% of the votes to be counted will be split down the middle? Aren't special votes usually left leaning?

Barest of margins, updates during the night showed National going from ~42% to 39%, add in the special votes, that might be 37% and ACT might be lower too.

Seems like a call to Winston is likely/inevitable. Then we all get to watch an absolute sh#t show for the next 3 years as Winnie and Seymour trade blows based on diametrically opposed ideology, both of which are wrong.

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We have a son living in Antwerp. Ever considered what New Zealanders thought being blocked from returning to their own country?

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Your statement seems to imply national would have done different? More than likely a disgruntled Labour supporter will vote green than swallow a blue rat.

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I wonder who the gang members voted for?

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Not the Legalise Cannabis Party!

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Let me ponder that for a spliff second Le Clerc - Agreed!

But ....who could it be?

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who got more votes than brian tamaki, even people looking at all sort if wonderful visions, understand what he is

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What makes you think, A,  they voted ,and B , they all voted the same way  

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Well you are right we'll never know but this did spark my interest https://www.nzherald.co.nz/kahu/election-2023-mongrel-mob-and-black-pow…

But then I also  thought about NAT ACT and NZFirst policies and turkeys voting for Christmas.

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I don't know , they  might like the idea of their own segregated prisons , and boot camps should provide lots of prospects. 

I live in a gang member heavy neighbourhood , my impression would be that few bothered voting . Could be my negative point of view of them , but I certainly didnt see any sign of an organised voting push . 

I would say all Tam achieved was giving Luxon something to frighten voters with . 

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I only loosely followed the polls because I was always going to vote centre-right. I'm economically conservative, but socially very liberal. 

But it seemed to me ACT lost a bit of support in the polls soon after their climate guy came out and said he doesn't believe in climate change. 

Brook V seems like a talented politician.

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Brook V, I agree, and humble.  The opposite of Chloe.

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What infuriated me the most about labour was their apartheid policies putting Maori ahead of everyone else. And their HUGE budget deficits. They had no idea how to manage an economy and their policies hurt the average person. They were punished for that. The average Labour voter is worse off not better off and labour did nothing to improve their standard of living. To think that raising the minimum wage from $17 to $23 under their watch was not going to be inflationary was misguided. The $100 billion covid money printing generated this inflation and it's labour's fault and more specifically Arderns fault.

The reserve bank's failure just worsened the problem.

As an ex labour voter, I can say I think alot of people voted labour out as opposed to voting National in.

The next 3 years will be far more difficult. National will have some hard decisions to make and I think one of those decisions will be to cancel the tax cuts due to a much worse than expected budget deficit.

It's time for an economic budget that focuses on finances and not on Well-being. It's time to be fiscally responsible, something that has not happened during labour's tenure under Ardern. We had a good future in 2017 but that was ruined due to economic mismanagement and labour has their day of reckoning.

 

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What infuriated me the most about labour was their apartheid policies putting Maori ahead of everyone else

Same for me. But I am not worried by so called excessive spending. The elephant in the room is  our household debt. And if govt starts spending it will reduce the private debt burden.

But yeah ; labour's efficiency in managing spending is questionable. 

They should watch how 'efficiently' bankers+landlords runs housing Ponzi 

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"What infuriated me the most about labour was their apartheid policies putting Maori ahead of everyone else"

 

100% agree on that point, Labour worked hard to divide New Zealand, this is one of the main reason they got the boot.

 

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