The final polls in the last week of the campaign show the left and right blocs on an equal footing, with NZ First holding the balance of power between them.
Winston Peters, the party’s veteran leader, has ruled out returning Labour to power which limits his status as ‘kingmaker’ but he can expect a phone call from Christopher Luxon.
The National leader's declaration that he would work with Peters, if necessary, has sent voters spinning out of its preferred coalition partner and into its “last resort” partner.
Act was polling at an average of 13% a couple of months ago, but it has lost a couple of percentage points to NZ First which is now polling above 6%.
National has also lost some support, although this may have been to the Labour Party which has mounted a mini-comeback in the final days of the campaign.
A record level of support for the Green Party means the left and right blocs are on track to each win 56 seats, according to the last three polls, while NZ First takes the last eight.
Interest.co.nz’s polling average, which factors in older polls results, still shows National and Act winning more seats than Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori — but the gap is shrinking.
Were Labour leader Chris Hipkins and Peters to both go back on their word, and betray their voters, they could theoretically form a government together.
This would be a scandal but could be a credible enough threat to give NZ First a little extra leverage at the negotiating table.
Law of averages
The polls which show the left and right with equal support are the two television news polls and the Guardian Essential poll.
Interest.co.nz’s polling average shows National and Act on track to win roughly 59 seats between them, but that has been trending down in the past two weeks.
Their seat count drops to just 56 if you zoom in on only the most recent poll results, equal with the left. In all cases, NZ First more than makes up the difference.
The Act Party remains the fourth most popular party in these averages and would win between 10 and 13 seats, while NZ First could pick up seven to nine.
Labour would beat its (disastrous) 2014 result and get upwards of 35 seats, while the Green Party would have its best result in history with up to 17 seats.
We have issues
Polling firm Ipsos updated its monthly New Zealand Issues Monitor on Tuesday. It tracks what voters are most concerned about and which political parties would be best at handling them.
Inflation/the-cost-of-living remains the top problem for voters, a title it has held since early 2022 when it overtook housing — which has fallen to third place.
Concern about crime has also moved above housing this year, and still holds second place, but it has receded in the past month. Healthcare and the economy round out the top five.
The big movement in the newest Monitor was an increase in concern about fuel prices, which tends to happen when 91 hits $3 at the pump, and a fall in worry about education.
Oil prices climbed in September as members of the cartel OPEC cut production while China kept importing relatively high volumes despite an economic slowdown.
Prices have since eased but the sudden flare-up in Israel and Palestine has caused some uncertainty which could keep upwards pressure on oil costs.
Household budgets are already being strained by higher mortgage rates and consumers are not pleased to see $3 petrol prices at the pump.
Short-term worries about petrol prices have risen to meet concern about climate change, both at 21%, in the most recent Issues Monitor.
However, climate change beats petrol prices as a long term concern, at 25% versus 14% on a five-year horizon. Worryingly, inflation remains on top of the long term list of concerns.
National was perceived as being the party best equipped to tackle eight of the top ten concerns, with only climate change and poverty going to the Greens and Labour, respectively.
Ipsos interviewed 1,148 respondents in August via online panels and the numbers have a 3.5% margin of error.
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