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The latest Taxpayers' Union poll shows NZ First could be back in parliament with Winston Peters at the helm of a 7-person caucus

Public Policy / news
The latest Taxpayers' Union poll shows NZ First could be back in parliament with Winston Peters at the helm of a 7-person caucus
Winston Peters signs U.S. Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo's guestbook before their meeting at the U.S. Department of State in Washington in 2018
Winston Peters signs U.S. Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo's guestbook before their meeting at the U.S. Department of State in Washington in 2018

A third poll shows New Zealand First with enough support to return to Parliament, again proving the golden rule of politics: never rule out Winnie. 

The Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll released on Thursday is the third consecutive poll showing Winston Peters’ party with enough support to clear the 5% threshold. 

It came after the inaugural Guardian – Essential poll had NZ First at 5.3% on Wednesday, and a Roy Morgan poll put him right on the 5% threshold earlier this month. 

Both these polls could be considered to be lower-quality, but the Curia poll was conducted by industry veteran and National Party pollster David Farrar.

It shows NZ First comfortably clearing the hurdle, with 5.8% of the vote. 

This would give the party seven seats in Parliament, but still allow National and Act to form a coalition government without their support. 

Winston Peters’ party has held the balance of power in three separate elections and supported both Labour and National governments. 

This time around, he has ruled out working with Labour and has courted voters who opposed Jacinda Ardern’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic. 

However, this does not mean he will be welcomed into the centre-right coalition. 

National Party leader Christopher Luxon has so far declined to rule out working with New Zealand First, but his probable coalition partner the Act Party has already done it for him. 

David Seymour, Act Party leader, has ruled out working with New Zealand First if it were given ministerial Cabinet positions. 

However, it does leave room for either party to sit on the cross benches and provide confidence and supply to National and whichever coalition partner it chooses. 

Labour currently holds a majority in Parliament and governs alone, but it has a cooperation agreement with the Greens providing extra votes in exchange for ministerial positions outside of cabinet. 

A National-Act coalition could reach a similar agreement with New Zealand First, or shut the party out entirely if it had enough votes. 

It’s unlikely—but not impossible—that National and NZ First would have enough votes between them to form a Government without the support of Act. 

Finally, Peters has been known to be flexible with his language and the possibility of NZ First supporting a third term Labour government could not be completely ruled out. 

Labour pains 

The Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll does not show that as a possible outcome in this particular snapshot in time, as Labour has fallen sharply in recent polls. 

Curia showed them down 4 points at just 27% support, while Guardian’s Essential poll had them at 29%, and Roy Morgan at just 26%. 

Different polls cannot always be compared to each other, as they may use different methodologies, however the trend appears to show support for Labour ebbing.

The Green Party would generally be the biggest beneficiary in any lost support for Labour, and that was the case in the Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll. 

It picked up three of four points Labour lost, while National only gained 1.6 points, leaving the balance between the coalition blocs relatively unchanged. 

National and Act would be able to scrape together a government with 61 seats, or 68 if it was supported by NZ First, while the left-leaning bloc could only gather 52 seats. 

Labour would be unable to form a government even if a change of heart from Peters delivered support from his party’s seven seats. 

However, those seats are just calculated from one single poll and are not predictive of what will happen on election night.

The campaign begins in earnest in three weeks time and both blocs will be working hard to win over the public.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

118 Comments

If I wasn't laughing so hard I'd be screaming in terror. Count Winstula emerges from the crypt, right on time.

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18

The descent down the slippery slope for this Labour lot is gathering pace like an avalanche, hard to defy gravity.  Even the Praetorian Guard on here have given up,  and followed their recently decamped Empress into well merited oblivion.

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22

The current crop of MPs only have themselves to blame. I might even go 2 ticks NZ First at this rate!

Winston Peters could be the gift NZ's parliament deserves. Come October 14th imagine the faces on the wee luvvies - pulling off the silver bow, opening their oversized gift box.. ..then out pops Winston !

Oh the joy =)

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19

Amongst that, in the forthcoming ruins of this government, there will undoubtedly be much wailing and gnashing of teeth of the well vented Maori faction in caucus and in that there is more than a little irony. For they are the architects of their own demise in so much, by their subjectivity and insistence on policies of racial selectivity they have effectively white- anted their host, the Labour Party.

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24

….and there will be cries of racism when all of the Māori stuff that should never have been created is defunded or quietly cancelled. It’s going to be hilarious to watch.

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24

Hopefully we can avoid Apartheid after all. 

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8

Do you even know what apartheid was and how it operated in South Africa?

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1

Yes, I watched it unfold. 

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7

I think you will find it won't be. You do realize it was National that kicked off He Puapua.

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2

Dont underestimate the ability of this Labour lot to buy some votes with some policy announcememts that apeal to the underclass and the morons on the cusp

Talk is cheap, delivery is slow...  except if your Maori, poor, Green, car dwelling, or gay?

I hope i am wrong and they depart the moral shores in a viking burial stylz.

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1

Like a bad smell that won't go away... Winnie the Poo 

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12

He leads China doesn't he

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11

Biggest comeback since George Foreman laced 'em up again in the late 1980s. 

Even though he's no doubt just in it for himself again, I cannot help but admire his hustle and the fact that he understands you only need to pick a couple of hot topics to get yourself over the 5% mark. 

 

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19

...helped by the other parties being very shy in talking about those "hot topics"

 

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15

NZF would normally get over the 5% mark, but in 2020 their core voters were pissed off at the high levels of immigration, and the elderly grateful for Labour saving them from covid. In the 2021 Predictions I said NZF would fold. Wrong.

This election those core voters will come back to Winnie. I am also  expecting a big deal to be made of Nact selling our assets in the final weeks of the campaign to scare voters off them. Winnie could end up with 10 MPs yet. And no he won't reneg on his promise not to go with Labour...that would be a NZF death sentence. 

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10

And raising NZ super age to 67.

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1

In 2020 the oldies thought that Jacinda had single handedly saved them from death - she went on TV every day and told them so.  But its now 2023 and they have all realised that rather than being saved from dying from Covid, they were left to die alone from all their other diseases (most of which they could no longer get treatment for due to the hospitals being closed) with no friends or family in attendance to hold their hand, or to bury them.  And the vast majority of them all got Covid in the end and survived. 

The other half of Winston's voter base were simply p****d off that he went with Labour in 2017.  He may or may not get those ones back.

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1

There are a lot of people not happy with Labour, nor inspired by anything National comes up with.

TOP should have positioned themselves for the last twelve months to pick up these votes by releasing a simplified subset of existing policies early - I advocated for 4 or 5 max given the Conservatives got 4% with that many.  I'd also have had them all out 12 months ago to give people a better chance to discover what TOP stood for.  If a hot button topic came up during the campaign period, then sure, add a policy for it too.

They still have the single best policy of LVT and tax switch and deserve a vote for that forward focus.  Just wish they hadn't dropped gimmies like population/immigration that could have differentiated themselves from the other parties and fitted in well with the affordable housing message (suppress demand).

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7

Kiwis are nuts, one would think NZF voters would be... ya know ... dead by now. TOP is also a populist party but with new/good ideas, rational and logical... why no traction?

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13

?...perhaps not everyone agrees with TOPs "new/good ideas, rational and logical" of stealing from people who worked all their lives to provide a home for their families and handout as a UBI to people who can't  be bothered getting out of bed 

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32

Your comment explains the problem. Naive and a failing to understand tax and welfare (or not wanting to) and the problem the current policies are creating..

The majority who don't need to get out of bed are those on Nat Super.

TOP policy would ensure those who did get out would be rewarded for it (and not just non icome tested 65+s).

 But you stick with the failed main parties and make sure nothing changes.

(sorry was in edit mode but comments posted while processing)

 

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25

Same here, worse off personally but dont care, I'll still vote for TOP.

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17

You're the third person I've seen call someone who disagrees with Top's policies as naive. Hard to win people to your cause with insults, mate. 

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9

Don't be a sheeple, join us!

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5

People who can't be bothered getting out of bed already get a benefit and so far as I know no major party proposes to change that. TOP are proposing more money for those who DO work, not for those who don't. Yes, it means less money for those getting their wealth from rent, some of whom may have worked hard for those rented assets, but what's the alternative? The status quo of pillaging workers' pay to fund everyone else has failed.

 

The problem with rentierism - eventually we run out of other people's work. 

 

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25

That's an issue many like to spin: once you have bought an asset with money earned from adding value to society you don't get a free pass for life. Saved 300k to buy a home? Great! Now it's 2 mil? "But ma' hard work", not acknowledging that the 1.7M gain was on the back of others who actually added value in society. Yes, you get bragging rights for your 300k, the rest is parasitic behaviour

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14

Once again: its still the same asset with the same market value.  This is not the same as price which simply reflects money as the medium of exchange, re/devalued by monetary and fiscal policies outside the control of the asset owners.

There is no real "profit" in such asset CGs (note this not the same argueable case in  business goodwill CGs).

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7

Parasitic behaviour? Government policy trashes the value of money and Top want to tax the trash? Mmm, solid.

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2

I read TOPs website front to back today. They have gone woke as, and their important policies won't achieve what they promise. They haven't ruled out working in a Labour coalition, so there is that too.

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20

Woke how?

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7

Go and read the team profiles on their website. Too long to post here.

I have voted for them 2 or 3 times before to encourage them, but not this time with that lineup. 

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13

Like it or not this is a major factor in this election - I too am bailing from TOP due to this.

Robert Conquests 2 law of politics: "Any organization not explicitly and constitutionally right-wing will sooner or later become left wing"

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1

Yes agreed, a concern.

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If you are bailing on TOP who are you voting for? Dont think I can vote Labour. Cant vote Nats if they are going to re-ignite our housing issues. I have kids and care about them so Act not an option. Maybe Greens if they were only focused on the environment. Kind of left in no mans land...

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1

Watch the platform.kiwi Sean Plunkett try and interview the TOP leader, not a great look.

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5

I wouldn't want to talk to Sean until I've had at least 3 coffees. 

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5

Sean Plunkett doesn't care how it looks or for the veracity of content .

Attracting enough disaffected gulls to his show in order to pay the bills is all that matters.- gone in 2024 if not before.

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1

Beanie would you trust an ex merchant banker. Alot on here saying how great TOP is and banks are to blame for NZ predicament yet there leader was a banker in London.

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4

I'm guessing it's because Winz-ton is ex National party so picks up the "pissed off with National but will never ever vote Labour" crowd.

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3

I think it's the other way around - people who've got sick of Labour but don't fancy 7-house Luxon and his party for property speculators, or ACT packaging up NZ to flog off to the highest bidder.

Plus there's also the prospect of the entertainment value of Seymour vs Winnie.

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13

i am looking forward to Seymour back tracking couldn't happen to aa better person getting taught a lesson by the wiley old fox,  and it depowers him so much which will make national happy as they can reject some of ACTs radical ideas

o

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3

Because their core demographic has fairly split interests. 

Winnie gets to appeal to oldies, and people who like how bad he says the current government is (irrespective of who that is)

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4

Winston is one of the few, perhaps the only, politician who gives off the impression that they believe New Zealand is a nation, not a bizarre colony of itself, while also not being beholden to identity politics. Those are strong credentials.

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24

It is a bizarre colony though. Bunch of Europeans, living at the bottom of Asia. 

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0

Weird observation? People from all races live everywhere on the planet.

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2

Sure, but not many countries are vague recreations of themselves, on the other side of the planet.

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1

Europe is closer to Asia than New Zealand is. It is even part of the same land mass, like a peninsula sticking out of the side of Asia.

New Zealand as a recreation of a European country is really quite awesome. It's been terraformed quite spectacularly.

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1

Well, well over a century ago, Mark Twain summed it up as. “ Some people think that New Zealand is close to Australia or Asia or somewhere, and that you can cross to it on a bridge. But that is not so. It is not close to anything, but lies by itself, out there in the water.” Sure jet air travel has arrived, but during covid, the lockdown, that sentiment was alive and relevant wasn’t it.

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1

NZ is closer to Antarctica than Asia and not that far away from South America.

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2

Europe is closer to Asia than New Zealand is. 

And Asia is very different from Europe.

New Zealand as a recreation of a European country is really quite awesome. 

It's actually terrible, because the expectation is for NZ to be Europe-like, whilst lacking the core foundations that makes most European countries what they are (a long shared cultural history, and proximity to the rest of Europe).

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0

What would people prefer NZ to look like?  Papua New Guinea? 

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1

Yeah Nah.  Peters says good stuff but repeatedly does the opposite.

While that's common in politics, With Peters it's every thing, every time.  Always.

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12

It amazes me that anyone votes for him.

He puts on a big song and dance before the election.

He outs a couple of scandals whilst in parliament. 

He achieves nothing.

Rinse and repeat.

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3

Winston comes out and says the things that everyone thinks but is afraid to say.  And the only reason he can do that is because he is Maori, if he were a white man he would be branded a white supremacist and promptly bailed up on hate speech laws.

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3

Well here's your problem, I asked my kids, two of are now voting age, have they heard about TOP, both said no, as did there partners. I asked them do they know Labour, National, yes, then ACT and NZ first, and yes to both. TOP need get social media campaign together as it's not what is flashing up on peoples social media accounts.

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7

This, I keep saying the most common response I get is "what's TOP".  Yet for the last year plus they have been spending time perfecting policy.  They needed to cut dead wood catered to better by other parties, such as Maori owning the rivers.  Then simplify what was left RFRM to LVT was a good effort and just spread the word about what they stood for (I'd have suggested a focus on housing affordability as the largest cost of living component). 

Having the best policy doesn't mean anything if no one has heard about it or it's too long for anyone to be bothered reading.

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2

If going with labour is " perfecting policy" they arè just Dumb!

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0

The elderly are always being replenished and it is growing. The problem in NZ is people really don't understand politics and everything is so dumbed down. Remember when they actually used to interview Politcians at 7pm on TV.

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8

I know I'm a dinosaur however I do miss Brian Edwards & Ian Frasers inquiry, also John Clarke, Billy T, Mcphail and Gadsby & even Paul Holmes would have ripped the current crop of politicians to shreds in minutes 

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14

So would the old guard politicians, Muldoon, Lange, even Prebble, De Cleene, Clark, Cullen. Regardless of what side of  the house they would have made short work of the mealy mouthed nothingness currently presented in parliament nowadays.

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9

The masses do not understand what TOP stands for, hell, I'm a member and I don't really know.

I do know their LVT with tax free threshold (tax switch from productive work to land) is miles better than every other party's best policy.  But they also have new contradictions (compared with TOP 1.0) such as wanting affordable houses and not addressing demand (population ponzi).  Did the evidence change?  I think not.

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6

What does nzf stand for?

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0

The pitch: It's in the name, reduce immigration, one rule for all - they've been consistent over decades which is why I can answer off the top of my head.

The reality: Winston, which is also why I haven't ever voted for him.

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7

Murray, we get it, you advocate for TOP and LVT. Now, give us a break from your political advertising. 

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4

I advocate for what I believe is good policy for a better, fairer, New Zealand.  If you read the other posts I have made in this thread, they are far from advocating for TOP - indeed, some are a bit critical.

In the last day or two I have replied to a lot of your specific questions about LVT and TOP policy, so you probably have to share some of the blame for the number of posts I've made!

BTW, since you've had your fill, what is your verdict on TOP's tax switch (LVT and income tax-free threshold of 15k)?  Good, bad or indifferent?

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4

Not an old voter here, NZF has been a check on the two larger parties that have their usual flaws they never seem to be able to overcome. Also mixes well in foreign affairs as they are all old and old school, actually been one of our most effective MPs. Show me where any party is not about also self interest.

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6

Can you explain how he has been effective? Genuine question. I always have viewed him as directly self interested, most other political partys as tangentialy self interested.

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1

Yes, you have to admit that the first Labour term with NZF was far, far superior to the second term without them.  Whilst they still didnt achieve much, at least they didn't break anything as badly as they have done over the last few years, nor did they manage to racially divide the country so brutally.  And you should bear in mind that Winston was effectively Acting PM for most of that term as Jacinda was away on maternity leave or on one of her many overseas junkets most of the time, making him the only adult in the room. 

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3

Seymour may just be eating his words yet. And that's from a non-NZ1st supporter!

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9

Terrifying thought that the most corrupt politician in NZ history could have the balance of power.

I for one hope he doesn’t reach the 5% threshold.

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13

I actually thought he bought a level of balance to Labour/Greens when he was part of the coalition.

I compare the government he was involved in during the previous election cycle and it (in my opinion) performed far better than what we have had the last 3 years which has gone much too far to the left.

Perhaps he might do the same for a National/Act coalition (however that might work....)

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22

He put Jacinda in power. What does that say about his judgement?

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3

who thought is was a good idea for bill english the guy that got winston kicked out of the national party to be involved in trying to talk winston into making him PM. as soon as i saw that i knew that was never ever going to happen it was the ultimate revenge, he is gone now alone with the rest that went against him  to get kicked out so now he can work with them again, he is more aligned with national than labour so unless labour offer to make him  PM i can not see him going back on his word this time

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1

Whilst Winston might have been conned by Jacinda Ardern's false promises in 2017, it pales in comparison to how many New Zealanders were conned by her in 2020.

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4

Only if you consider balance to be, nothing changed. Oldies are terrified of change.

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0

Wintson stands for nothing but his own ego.

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14

Yep there is no way we want this clown holding the balance of power again and then not delivering on any of his promises anyway.

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7

Terrifying is the thought of TPM or the Greens being in government. 

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14

You don't know NZ history very well if you think he is relatively more corrupt to the others... take your blinkers off. 

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3

Winston has nothing of the inane TPM mob.

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1

Dear Lord, take him now!

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5

It brings in the possibility of the Greens been able to persuade their members to go with National / NZF, on the grounds of keeping their worst enemy, ACT, out of the government.

I think the only thing that is sure , is that we are unlikely to have a government decided on Saturday night.

 

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3

5D chess strategic voting like the one you proposed is pretty bonkers and also defeats the whole purpose of voting. Few would think like this tbh. If you like ACT vote ACT, not Greens because they'll keep TPM in check. And vice versa

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2

I just realised you meant the MPs to form a coalition, not the MPs to suggest strategic voting. Similar strategic voting ideas were flaunted on Reddit and I got confused

Unlikely, though, for Greens - Nats to have better chemistry than N/act, but interesting thinking outside the box

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1

What I was meaning was because the greens have to run any coalition deal past their members( well actually their delegates),it is generally accepted they would not go with the Nats, even if the MPS wanted too. but if it mean't keeping ACT out of power , they might be able to convince the members to go with confidence and supply with National.A full coalition still remains unlikely.

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2

Well I did pick this in earlier posts, he is a experienced campaigner, people are feeling the pinch and labour want more taxes to spend on the regime in Wellington, people want and out, any out.

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5

As bad as Labour are I'm still voting for them because I really think they are better than the rest.

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5

Yep. They are great. 100 billion dollars borrowed and spent. No outcome except everything got worse. Even a band of monkeys with a multi choice button could not be worse that these losers, and you can see no better option. That says a lot.

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24

They appear to enrich their supporters, closely associated and within the public sector. They have excelled at that, logical if you are one of them!

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2

If you owned property, I heard they weren't bad. The speculators amaze me, their dog boxes went up in value astronomically, and they whine and whine about taxes. It's never enough.

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3

That's what I don't understand. The ones that are whining the most are the ones that have made the most out of property etc.maybe a bit overextended???

Those struggling seem to grin(or maybe grimace) and bear it. Or will they ??? 

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0

Yup, I was making no money on property under National.  Bought a house in 2014, paid $3000 more than the vendors paid in 2007.  More than doubling the value of that house in the last 3 years was the only thing Jacinda did for me.  Thanks Jacinda! 

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1

You'd find a better Cabinet at Bunnings.

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21

To be fair to bunnings their cabinets generally operate as intended, the items work, and all the parts are present…..even their cheapest and most useless offering. Labour can’t even claim that.

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13

Did you mean a bunny cabinet? That resonates. Trouble is, from the look of it, they’ve run out of bunny holes.

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1

Yes, we will soon be living in the times when the first humans ever reached the shores of Australasia. So exciting!!

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3

We've come a long way in 65000 years, we won't go that far back 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aboriginal_Australians#:~:text=Aborigin….

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1

Why not? When you cant afford fuel, electricity, rent / mortgage, healthcare, education and food. And someone can walk into your cave, steal your stuff and tell you they had trauma so it is all cool.... you are right back in time

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2

All of that stuff is affordable on the minimum wage. Might not be much left over but that’s a good reason to get more skilled. 

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0

Indeed,  the Gloriavale party and the junior CCP have no clue why we have ended with a depleted, overcrowded and polluted planet. How stupid would a political party have to be to want to accelerate off the cliff? Says something about the voting public I guess?

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0

We don’t even know Labours policies yet. I doubt they even know. I hate almost all of Nationals policies but at least I get a tax cut. 

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1

You must have been one of those Govt workers attending all their great parties. 

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0

How on earth can anyone believe anything released by the 'Taxpayers union' - they are simply a right wing lobby group masquerading a "Grassroots activist group"

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4

So you are saying you don’t believe their results because in your opinion they are too right wing? Does that mean they cannot add or are incompetent even thought their results align with every other poll which indicates a crashing of labour support base pointing to them being toast at the election?

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7

No other poll puts Luxon anywhere near 25%

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4

That number is highly variable from poll to poll, the main point is the poll is consistent with the others in that it points to labour being gone. The preferred PM is unusual because the opposition leader is equal with the PM which makes Chris L one of the best performing opposition leaders ever, and Chris H one of the worst. This is still the case when they are a few % apart regardless of who does the polling.

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4

The polls are consistently pointing to a very close election. 

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1

I'm saying I believe they manipulate the results, to allow headlines that suit their narrative. 

This is based in multiple insights over they years where they've done under-handed manipulative things, and we only know about the ones where they got exposed.

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4

And National and ACT have a lot of money to splash around. i'm pretty sceptical how any media can remain unbiased when the big advertising $$$$ imbalance comes into play.

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1

They can't. Just like how they were not able to remain unbiased when the big government $$$ came in to play to bail them out. 

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7

I'd have been more surprised if Labour had been ahead in polling. Their campaign of becoming "National Light" represents a deep misunderstanding of New Zealand society.

Unengaged people doing stupid things.

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1

Dan, when you report polls you should include the margins of error in the reporting.

Using the Roy Morgan guide to the margin of error at different polling numbers, these are roughly the 95% bands

National somewhere between 31.9% and 37.9%

Labour somewhere between 24.1% and 30.1%

Greens somewhere between 9.3% and 14.7%

ACT somewhere between 10.3% and 15.7%

NZ First somewhere between 4.5% and 7.1%

Māori Party somewhere between 1.2% and 3.8%

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4

This is a good idea! I’ve been thinking this week about how (or even if) we should cover  the polls. I’m keen to do it in the most mathematically sound way possible and not over report each individual poll. 

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The best polls are the sports betting sites.  Current odds National $1.45 and Labour $2.75
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/new-zealand-politics/next…

PS. what happened to the NZ web site that enabled political betting?  I believe that was pretty accurate.

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1

Fantastic. I cannot wait for the adults to be back in charge of this place 🙏🤞

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5

Glad to see no mention of TOP. People starting to realise they are just as woke and regressive as the Greens. Wasted vote. 

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9

Two ticks blue. 

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The Nats are so self-righteous they still dont understand why they aren't in goverment. And thats why nothing has changed within the Party for eons. Same-ole-blue-chip arrogance. The thought of Luxon at the helm is a very underwhelming prospect. But hey, ""god-bless"" you Christopher as your god-given right to govern. At least Winnie will keep them in check, even if it is self-serving. Just for balance, Labour couldnt orangise themselves out of a paper-bag with an endless supply of money. What a cherry start to the day. Onward!

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