This Thursday was the (somewhat arbitrary) milestone of 100 days until New Zealand’s general election in October, as noted in a number of news articles this week.
While a nice round number, 100 days is an odd choice to mark the countdown considering the pre-election period officially begins just one week later on Friday, July 14.
Then it will be exactly three months until the election and the start of the final three sitting weeks before Parliament is dissolved.
However, Friday is the second-ever Matariki public holiday (thanks Jacinda) and nobody wants to be reading about the election on a rare winter day off.
Readers will hopefully be busy staring at the stars, remembering passed loved ones, and reflecting on the (lunar) year ahead. Or, maybe just watching Netflix with the heater on.
Either way, let's do a quick stocktake on the political landscape before everything kicks off.
Poll position
The two major parties are literally neck and neck in the polls, right now, and that doesn’t change when you add in likely coalition partners.
In the most recent high quality poll, Labour was on 36%, National on 35%, Act on 11%, Greens on 7%, and Te Pāti Māori on 3.5%.
The methodologies used to smooth out polls can produce different results, but most show the two coalition blocs with an almost equal number of seats.
Labour, the Green Party, and Te Pāti Māori have generally had the advantage in recent polls but with razor thin margins. Even a tiny shift in support could change the next government.
In previous MMP elections there has often been a centrist party prepared to act as a kingmaker in a tight race. Not so this time.
National has ruled out Te Pāti Māori, New Zealand First (which is not in Parliament) has ruled out working with Labour, and the Act Party has all but ruled out working with NZ First.
Barring some exceptional circumstances, the coalition blocs have already been set in cement.
Issues
As in every election, the governing party will be running on its patchy track record and the opposition will be running on a vague sense of change.
In an environment of simultaneous recession and inflation, this should be the National Party’s election to lose but it has so far failed to pull ahead.
An issues poll conducted by Ipsos found 63% of respondents considered inflation/cost of living to be the top issue facing the country.
In second place was crime/law and order with a record 40% of respondents a top issue — that’s another issue National should feel confident discussing.
Crime was only number five on the list a year ago, but has climbed steadily into second place.
The next three top issues are ones more associated with the left-leaning coalition bloc: housing costs, healthcare, and climate change.
Over the 2020 Parliamentary term, respondents to Ipsos’ poll have given the Labour government a progressively worsening score. It has fallen from 7.3/10 down to 5/10.
Personalities
Like it or not, many people vote based on their personal affinity with party leaders.
An Interest.co.nz commenter once compared it to picking who you’d rather sit next to on a long haul flight.
Chris Hipkins has consistently led Chris Luxon in the preferred Prime Minister polls and is generally considered the more likable of the two.
This should be taken with a grain of salt however, as the preferred PM poll tends to lean heavily towards whomever is currently in the job.
Luxon is a relative newcomer to politics and hasn’t performed as well in the media as Hipkins, who is a career politician. The TV debates will be worth a watch.
Economy
Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign advisor made famous the phrase “it's the economy, stupid” and it has been taken as given that a recession will destroy a government’s chance at reelection.
However, that thinking has changed in recent years and Labour’s steady poll performance shows that voters aren’t punishing them for the downturn yet.
One possible reason for this, is that unemployment remains very low and wages are generally tracking inflation higher. The famous phrase might need to be re-coined as “it's the jobs, stupid”.
Read David Hargreaves piece from Friday for a more detailed take on the economy, but the Reserve Bank expects unemployment to rise to 4.6% by the end of the year.
Meanwhile inflation is predicted to fall to below 5% and economic growth to be virtually zero.
Whether that is enough to decide the election is an open question. With the polls this tight, almost anything could tip the balance.
118 Comments
If you want an Issue to talk about try reading the draft plan for your children's future education
https://curriculumrefresh-live-assetstorages3bucket-l5w0dsj7zmbm.s3.ama…
Aussie is looking pretty good right now
Not arguing that these classes are shutting down, but generally schools are autonomous in this respect so they are doing it themselves. I'm a teacher and as far as I know its not a specific govt directive. What happens is that principals go off to conferences where academics present papers that streaming is 'racist' and 'colonial' then return to school to implement it asap. Doesn't make it any less of a terrible idea.
The new curriculum is somehow even more vague than the current one. At this point the bulk of my planning is done using Aus or UK curriculum plans as the NZ one gives you absolutely nothing to work with as a teacher. It is quite a leap of faith leaving everything so open to discretion. People worry about their kids getting 'indoctrinated' and so on, but frankly the bigger concern should be their kids just learning next to nothing.
Pretty simple its been on a downhill slope since the day they dropped School Certificate and University Entrance level exams. The day is coming where all the kids will be able to do when they leave school is speak Māori and know everything there is about Waitangi Day. Still the parents in this country let it happen.
My parents are retired teachers and they were fine with some of the NCEA stuff, because in life there aren't any 3hr examinations and it creates a sense of urgency through the year, not just the last two months.
The issue they feel is the freedom to internally assess is too high, and that hard stuff isn't taught at primary schools.
Increasingly parents will look to curriculum’s like Cambridge or International Baccalaureate. By default these will be in private schools or ‘white upper middle class’ neighbourhoods. The academic gap between European/Chinese/Indian will only widen when compared to Maori/Pasifika.
But hey, understanding colonisation will be invaluable when you can’t draft a job application.
Yes. We've got grandkids of all ages and intellectual ability, and I haven't got a single complaint or concern. From what they tell me, I get the impression that our schools are great because our teaching staff are great. I'm currently tutoring NCEA distance learning in the English curriculum and love the fact that it is so full of choice and so many of the credits allow students to choose what they read and write about - and the curriculum affords them an ability to use their own creativity to a significant degree. Also, they can work at their own pace, which is great too. Next I teach into the science and the social studies subjects - can't wait as the style of the study is so enjoyable to work with young people on.
My own children did the SC and UE route - and neither really, really enjoyed their secondary study. Both very capable students, but it just wasn't as flexible such that they could tailor learning to their own interests.
I am really pleased that you have had such a positive experience. There are good schools and good teachers but there is also a huge amount of variability in educational standards across the country. I would like to see consistency in the way the curriculum is applied. Individual schools have too much freedom to implement it in their own way.
Totally agree Kate and solardb.
I've got grandkids going through the state system now. They all seem to be getting both extended and helped as needed. They do have fantastic and supportive parents but the teachers and the system are working. TBF I don't partake of the mainstream or social media beatups so my be well behind on the latest hate.
We are looking at Aussie Primary schools websites and it is so refreshing not to have Māori stuff interwoven into the curriculum. A place for kids to learn and be normal Westerners - a breath of fresh air. All the treaty stuff in these types of documents is going too far. It’s thinly veiled affirmative action - requiring school boards to pay particular regard to Māori etc. What about particular regard to English, Chinese or US heritage which outnumbers Māori both in NZ and worldwide. Time to admit the treaty was a ruse and we never intended to honour it in this way. Or we no longer wish to honour it.
Can I call BS on all this weaving of Māori stuff into the start of everything - (education, health) and question who’s terrible idea it is to be weaving the Treaty into everything and insisting everything must ‘promote Māori’.
I understand there are legal precedents to it but I think it’s time to admit a mistake in law creation, roll back this nonsense and remove every reference to Māori in documents like these. Move back to a Secular Environment. And back on thread obviously Labour have to go for this to happen.
You're missing out on a fascinating indigenous history and worldview - and so fascinating reading about how the very, very early Westerners found the NZers in those early days. Here's some great reading, for example;
http://www.enzb.auckland.ac.nz/document/?wid=298&page=0&action=null
Mind you - I love all history and all cultures - so I'm an avid reader of just everything historical. I think we're really lucky as a nation that Māori language and culture have been documented, preserved and handed down for generations. Being from the US, the same rich melding of indigenous and settler culture never occurred, and that is a real shame. So much to learn and experience across worlds.
I find Asian, Persian and European history much more interesting. I remember the Kamatua showing me the greenstone Mere. I was very impressed but then I travelled out of NZ and then went to China where I was shown a Jade statue of a dragon made in 1000 BC. I went to Iran where they had a globe which was made 1000 years ago made from rubies, emeralds, diamonds.
I remember the Pa sites in NZ and Kumara pits which was mildly interesting but then traveled to Europe and the first thing I noticed was the incredible castles.
At school in NZ we learnt about the Maori landing in NZ and the Waka. Then I learnt about the Asian and European explorers, including Cook. Their ships and their voyages to me are so much more interesting. I think NZ forgets that the rest of the world had went through the technology of canoes, stone clubs also the practice of cultural tattoos. I don't think it's closed minded at all to be more interested in European and other advanced cultures at all.
by RCD | 9th Jul 23, 8:44am
If you want an Issue to talk about try reading the draft plan for your children's future education
https://curriculumrefresh-live-assetstorages3bucket-l5w0dsj7zmbm.s3.ama…
Aussie is looking pretty good right now
Come on over, it's awesome!
Decision, decisions. Yes, the debates will indeed be interesting. Could be quite influential where party vote is concerned. I'm in Chris Hipkins' electorate and yes his likeable characteristics will make my electorate vote a no brainer. However, I'd rather see TOP come in as a coalition partner alternative, so will be watching the polling in the Ilam electorate closely. If Raf looks like winning there, my party vote will go to them. If not, I'm up in the air. ACT is making a lot of sense in their policy positions, but trust is a big issue - David Seymour has made some irrational/non-sensical calls in protecting his electorate 'patch'. If TOP doesn't get in, a Labour/ACT coalition to my mind might be the best for the country. I'm hoping there is also debating between the major and minor parties on the same stage as well. That would serve a bit to lock the minors more into whatever positions/promises they make on that stage.
What will be the actual vote when Labour supporters realise TMP are riding in on their coattails ? If you want Labour but don't want TMP then you are in a bit of a bind. New Zealand could do without 3 years of the tail wagging the dog, especially when its a Poodle. New Zealand needs a Pit Bull terrier right now.
Which ones do you like?
Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
Interest back on all student loans
No Kiwsaver subsidy
Cancel winter energy payment
Dump all climate crisis legislation
no more best start payments for families with new borns
cut welfare payments
no tax credits for research and development
cuts to working for families
$7b a year cut in public services
Abolish Maori seats
Abolish Human Rights Commission
Combined with
Interest deductible on existing houses.
bright line test back to 2 years.
Tax cuts for the the likes of Hart and Mowbray.
I like all of the above. EXCEPT removal of the KiwiSaver tax credit (KS should be inviolate and contributions increased over time).
Pretty sure I’m voting against the current Government rather than for a viable alternative but the ticks will be the same.
Every looser wants it for free. And expect someone else to pay for it.
Damn welfare beneficiaries! Taking all of the welfare that rightfully belongs to Landlords and Retirees!
Interesting the proposition is welfare cuts while refusing to address two of the three biggest welfare payments to Landlords and Retirees, and remove Landlords from contributions (tax, ohhh noooo…) to the welfare that ends up in their own pockets.
I’m with Kates comment from the other day, it’s disgraceful hypocrisy.
The TWG didn’t support removal of interest deductibility from rental properties. I’m no tax expert but I think this is at variation with Australia (?), Switzerland and England (friends own rentals) and Argentina (we own property). But let’s demonise landlords without acknowledging the legislation and policy that allowed this.
Labour-we’ll screw things up…..Greens-we’ll tax the rich and make everything OK…
My comment was in reference to kwbrns list of policy, the policy makers who dream this up, and your comment that everybody wants something for free without effectively addressing the policy which takes away from productivity and gives it to a group of non-productive property owners for free.
We need to build more housing, and stop speculation. How we get there, not by making the same mistakes.
Thanks, yes - on our way to $3 billion in accommodation subsidies. Interestingly enough, when I spoke to the Select Committee on my rent maximum proposal - it was the ACT MP that impressed me the most. Very open-minded - empathetic with the plight of renters and knows that the taxpayer accommodation subsidy is just gonna kill the books in the long-run. Really expressed appreciation for the amount of research I had done in terms of coming up with an alternative. Good MP.
add is the 500 ml of interest deductibility which also was growing year on year, that is a lot of distortion created in the rental market that would be very hard to wean people off and would create an effect similar to when farmers lost their subsidies
for that kind of money the government could be creating whole suburbs of supply like we did back in the day, rather than making a few well off and bank profits inflated
My proposed regulation also calls for restoration of standard business/company taxation rules for residential property/landlords. That's the beauty of it as a package. Subsidy gone, weekly rent maximums anchored to the 30% of income metric; and taxation and depreciation rules restored. Plus, a beefed up government shared-equity scheme to foster a smooth transition from rent to home ownership.
What's not to like, eh?
Yep I will take ALL of the above over the current lot of idiots we have trying to run the country. Instead of a long list, why do you write a short list of what the Labour government has done to improve peoples lives over the last 6 years ? By the way you can take the Covid response off the top of your list.
"Finance Minister Grant Robertson makes frequent self-serving references to New Zealand’s low unemployment rate of just 3.2 percent. He does not talk, however, about the Jobseeker dependency rate which is much higher at 6 percent.
...To understand the growing gap, we need first to understand the definition of ‘unemployed’ used by Stats NZ which is:
- has no paid job
- is working age
- is available for work, and
- has looked for work in the past four weeks or has a new job to start within the next four weeks.
In contrast not all people on a Jobseeker benefit are required to be available or looking for work (a small fraction has part-time or seasonal jobs but that has long been the case.)
https://breakingviewsnz.blogspot.com/2022/03/lindsay-mitchell-glossing-…
Yeah, none of those. I like their smaller-issue approaches, like the end-of-life legislation and their intent to repeal that section of the OT Act which preferences the placement of Māori children in care with whānau - as it makes sense to just place children with good role models, no matter how they whakapapa. It's some of these smaller issues that they bring a more common sense lens to. They 'talk up' their austerity book, for sure but once you are actually in a coalition the rough-edges of that kind of hard-line dialogue that wins votes, comes off soon enough. Once in power, you don't need to appeal to anyone other than your power-partners.
A child taken from a family will go through a fair amount of trauma, and to a degree this is a form of psychological abuse. If you imagine a child taken for no reason forever will suffer some form of trauma later in life. And no form of reasoning really resolves that for them.
So then the threshold becomes a question of what’s worse. And as horrible as that sounds, it is. For this reason OT have come under fire for uplifting children from one time offenders etc.
I don’t know what the answer is, all I know from sideline experience is that sometimes it’s a delicate balance and that can be just as bad, if not worse than either or.
eg Would you prevent a child from ever seeing their mother because the new partner was psychologically abusive?
Interested in reading more if you have links to your evidence
https://www.act.org.nz/putting_children_at_the_centre_of_oranga_tamariki
The explanation - it's an existing Bill to repeal s7AA.
Yeah there is a lot of loud haters in this country at the moment. It's the whining that Luxon is talking about and it's coming from his voters and his team. If you ever venture into the Herald comments section it's an echo chamber of National/Act voters full of negativity- like a whole tribe of Mike Hoskings. They dominate there partly because if you have a different view, your comment probably won't get published from my experience. This is one of the great about this site.
national have reverted to form and a running a very negative campaign, a lot of what they are saying just does not add up, how are they going to do all the things they have promised and still give tax cuts.
example opening a new doctor school at waikato university , i have seen comment after comment from doctors in the NZ system saying how can this work, they are not enough senior people now in the NZ system that can train the placements needed for the existing training. this seems like a policy designed to appease a section of the electorate and a consultant paid a lot of money (how ironic for the national party)
You removed the context. The context was that you should sell your worldly possessions, possess only what you need to make a living and devote yourself to preaching the good news, live in virtue and devote yourself to these pursuits with all your being.
"And a certain ruler asked him, saying, Good Master, what shall I do to inherit eternal life? And Jesus said unto him, Why callest thou me good? none is good, save one, that is, God. Thou knowest the commandments, Do not commit adultery, Do not kill, Do not steal, Do not bear false witness, Honour thy father and thy mother. And he said, All these have I kept from my youth up. Now when Jesus heard these things, he said unto him, Yet lackest thou one thing: sell all that thou hast, and distribute unto the poor, and thou shalt have treasure in heaven: and come, follow me. And when he heard this, he was very sorrowful: for he was very rich. And when Jesus saw that he was very sorrowful, he said, How hardly shall they that have riches enter into the kingdom of God! For it is easier for a camel to go through a needle’s eye, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God. And they that heard it said, Who then can be saved? And he said, The things which are impossible with men are possible with God. Then Peter said, Lo, we have left all, and followed thee. And he said unto them, Verily I say unto you, There is no man that hath left house, or parents, or brethren, or wife, or children, for the kingdom of God’s sake, Who shall not receive manifold more in this present time, and in the world to come life everlasting." - Luke 18:18-30
He wasn't some sort of democratic socialist, he also demanded "Then said he unto them, But now, he that hath a purse, let him take it, and likewise his scrip: and he that hath no sword, let him sell his garment, and buy one. For I say unto you, that this that is written must yet be accomplished in me, And he was reckoned among the transgressors: for the things concerning me have an end. And they said, Lord, behold, here are two swords. And he said unto them, It is enough."
- Luke 22:36-38
“Oh no...not the Christians. Why is there so much anti against them. Question. Would you rather live next to Christians, or meth peddling gang members...?
Easy isn't it. “
This isn’t about who I would prefer as neighbours. It’s about who I would prefer to run the country. I can’t vote for anyone who believes in fantasy.
At the moment, positives for labour are definitely the intent to spend somewhat productively (industry and services in the budget mainly, though agree the allocation of budget leaves a bit to be desired), sustain trade, invest in nursing and healthcare to bring pay up, address some housing issues via tax, attempt to balance our private sector on the shallow end of recession. Really haven’t delved too far into their policy aside from taking note of what they’re actively doing currently, as had already decided on change. Dipped my toes in the blue Powerade and that was a hard pass.
Its an election of bad timing, either side can hardly run a campaign on “we’re a bit ducked, put your wallets away and we’ll see you in 2026. Expect tax.” Entering a recession with a massive deficit makes things extremely strategic for major parties, of course on the surface we can cut that deficit by reducing spend (unlikely anything significant there) or increasing tax (good luck winning an election there). But the unfortunate truth is we will have to turn the money taps on at some point, so it all depends on where we want that money to end up. Productivity or Non-productivity.
Really have not seen big campaign start from labour yet. Will be interesting to see. I’m decided on my vote for neither major nor likely coalition partner and so it will likely be wasted on the outcome of this election. It still shows support for the future of that party, which seems to be heading in a direction I like the look of.
Interesting though, as compassion was touted by Jacinda for the Labour parties bread and butter and look where we are now. Realism and pragmatism is what is needed now with a solid plan to weather the growing economic asset price storm and growing deficit. Not everyone will come out better off or even manage to hold on (jobs, businesses etc) but I'd far prefer cold, hard, reality speeches from aspiring political figures that are frank and raw about the current economic trajectory, than more emotive smokescreen talk telling everyone that everything is fine. We've all seen through the ruse e.g Economist and banking predictions, house market spruiking, and failed promises by govt.
But he was professionally proven beforehand wasn’t he. . A respected professor of Law, an academic career. Simon Power another lawyer went to Westpac and on. Likewise Judith Collins, David Parker could resume legal careers in law firms. My question, which admittedly could have been more defined, concerned those whose only real career has been based in parliament as a mp.
Geoff Palmer has such good eyebrows and delivery, it conceals that most of what he says is complete rot.
Or he says stuff that is true, and the same grand delivery conceals the farce. eg " When you lock people up in prison, they don't like it" Well yes Geoff, true that, but yadda yadda.
This could be the first election where I’m not sure who to vote for. I get the feeling there are a lot of people in a similar position. Do I vote for tax cuts for me now or for affordable houses and lower emissions for my children in the future? Both the main parties have policies that really annoy me, and both the smaller parties are way too extreme.
Simply, given the recent upheavals and serious challenges that lie ahead, vote for stability. And it that regard I cannot see a Labour Party with a rancorous faction already breaking ranks, coupling with The Greens backstabbing & vitriolic, plus the TPM racially extreme, providing any stability whatsoever. Quite the opposite in fact.
Are you ok with your kids growing up in a blatantly racist country without equality of opportunity & with institutionalised & legal racial discrimination ?
I've been in Malaysia last week visiting family (ethnic Chinese), the apartheid endgame is there for anyone to see.
I grew up in the 80s, Maori got very little opportunity and were treated as second class citizens so racism is nothing new (I’m sure Brash will tell you everything was equal but it definitely was not). I doubt we will ever go back to that, pretty sure they are just trying to tilt the balance back a bit.
I dont buy that even a little bit. I'm a 50 yo white male. I was married to a Maori woman and my 2nd wife is Samoan. I've seen first hand how NZ works, Ive lived in cities and small towns. Any kiwi who thinks there are equal opportunities for all is very deluded. Sure on the surface it all looks rosy, just don't forget who you are and your place.
We're a nation of greater and greater DNA diversity decade on decade on decade - it's been that way since Europeans arrived - silly to resist the inevitable. I always thought of the US as the 'melting pot', but it became really apparent to me on arriving here in the 1970s that the term was far more applicable to NZ. And thank goodness.
same boat ,might have to vote for a loopy party like Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party as the main ones all have bad choices for me and at least i can complain about the d--ks in charge that i did not vote for
do i vote for national/act who want to put up MY retirement age by 1 year just as i get there, ACT are going to be really powerful this time so will get in a lot of policies.
or labour/greens who want me to pay a wealth tax, same, the greens and TPM will have a lot of power and so will get their policies in
i am not against a CG tax as long as it is payable on sale but dislike a wealth tax which ironically, we already have for investments over 50k in overseas markets
Instead of who would you want to sit next to on a long haul flight, think who would you want to scrap it out in a cage fight.
I figure if musk snd Zuckerberg can do the mature thing and sort out their differences out in the ring, so can our politicians.
I would so for a Jerry Brownlee vrs chloe swarbrick fight.
Anyone else suggest any match ups?
I was impressed with how she faced down Helen White after effectively being told to 'stay in her lane', and also her articulate arguments for the marijuana legalisation debate.
I'm not sure what point cheetah is making. But yep, she does appear to have a good memory and is well read. From what I can see she is using those skills to support her efforts to improve other peoples' lives.
Speaking as someone who is confused more than ever by who is being polled these days, i.e. the methodology; the apparent inclusion of people who opt in to be and are regularly polled; the reference in your article Dan to 'a high quality poll'. Can we know which polls are low quality?; perhaps it is time for an article just about polling.
RM is hardly a high-quality poll. It's an FPP polster. The [Māori Party] scoring 7% is a near impossibility. With less than 280,000 at the last election registered on the Maori roll and with this being nothing like 2020. Moreover, not many on the general roll will vote for a Critical Race Theory , Affirmative Action party.
The poll is a dud. 1 of 53 since 2020.
That referred to Talbot Mills most recent poll, I should've linked to it. Roy Morgan is very noisy when it comes to minor parties, so I don't pay much attention to it.
Please don't use the word "mowrees" on this forum. You can obviously write it correctly, so please do so.
Great piece in granny herald on Friday about the state of the medicinal cannabis scheme. Kind of sums up Labours time in office, full of great intent (mostly) but poor execution. As someone who spends thousands of dollars a month on medicinal cannabis for my son the current system is such a wasted opportunity for this country’s productive sector.
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