Overseas worker and student numbers steadily picking up again

Public Policy / news

More than 16,600 people arrived in New Zealand on work visas last month and 7400 on student visas

16th Feb 23, 10:57am by Greg Ninness

The number of overseas workers and students arriving in New Zealand is slowly but steadily picking up again.

According to the latest figures from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (Immigration NZ sits within MBIE), 16,692 people arrived on work visas in January this year. That compares to just 300 in January last year.

Work visa arrivals dropped away abruptly when Covid-19 travel restrictions were introduced in late March 2020, falling from 20,511 in February 2020 to 12,399 in March, and then just 237 in April 2020.

They remained well below 1000 a month from April 2020 to March 2022, then began steadily rising and passed 10,000 a month in September last year.

In the six months from August 2022 to January 2023, 76,836 people have arrived on work visas.

The second graph below shows the monthly trend since July 2012.

Overseas student numbers are also picking up.

The latest MBIE figures show 7413 people arrived on student visas in January this year, up from just 90 in January last year.

Overseas student arrivals dropped to under 100 per months for most of the period from April 2020 to January 2022, but have been steadily rising since and passed 1000 per month in June last year.

The biggest months for overseas student arrivals have traditionally been January, February and July, so student arrivals should swell even further this month.

However their numbers are still well down from where they were pre-Covid.

In January 2020, before Covid restrictions were introduced, 19,551 overseas students arrived, more than double the 7413 that arrived last month. (See the first graph below for the monthly trend).

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45 Comments

by Contrarian | 16th Feb 23, 11:07am 1676498822

Hopefully, we will get more students into Bachelor and Masters and higher education programs, rather than the less than 12 months business management programs.

by JavaBoy | 16th Feb 23, 11:28am 1676500105

New Zealand universities run lots of one years masters programs that have nothing to do with education. They are just selling immigration. They often take foreign students with almost no background in their masters subjects and give them a one years masters course in some currently 'popular' subject.

The overseas students know the courses are crap, but they are prepared to pay $40k to get long term access to NZ. Examples of these courses are Lincoln's Master of Applied Computing and Canterbury's Master of Applied Data Science.

by nguturoa | 16th Feb 23, 12:53pm 1676505222

Even if the students choose bachelor or masters programs in NZ universities, what future do they have?

We do not have business who will hire them and pay them well.

The only motto of 98% of students who come to NZ for studying is to somehow get the work visa any where and find a path to residency.

by Hypno | 17th Feb 23, 9:05am 1676577922

The main concern is the students coming through unis here still struggle with english.

by Jay Lim | 17th Feb 23, 12:35pm 1676590547

You gotta sell whatever is selling. One international student taking 12 months biz managment will cover two NZ student's tuition for a year.

by singautim | 17th Feb 23, 1:04pm 1676592242

And that is what NZ needs - 3 more graduates in business management. Not doctors, engineers, nurses, expert welders, gas engineers, agricultural scientists, maths teachers. In the past you learned how to do something productive - say make hamburgers or dig ditches and then if you had both the talent and aptitude for it you became a supervisor and worked your way up to being a boss by improving your in team-leading skills and developing project planning and finance capabilities. Now like instant coffee we have instant business manager just add water. At least the old system had the advantage that when the business collapsed you could go back to brick laying or frying burgers.

by HW2 | 16th Feb 23, 11:09am 1676498966

Didnt Labour liars tell us they would hit the brakes

by JavaBoy | 16th Feb 23, 11:20am 1676499643

Yeah they did. They also said that NZ based students would have fees' free university for their 2nd and third years, so Labour(or any other party) lying is hardly a novelty.

I have always wondered why immigration is not correlated to the amount of accomodation available in New Zealand?

by Pa1nter | 16th Feb 23, 12:16pm 1676502982

Same way procreation isn't.

by nktokyo | 16th Feb 23, 2:02pm 1676509349

Either international students pay for fees free or you do.

by singautim | 16th Feb 23, 6:25pm 1676525127

My young builder friend told me he has been appointed a supervisor for eight Indonesian builders. He takes photos of the work they are doing and forwards them to the bosses. Incidentally he would prefer to be 'on the tools' himself. With many new builders maybe NZ will build enough accommodation to keep house prices sinking. My son, a builder, has been working in Canberra for the last year.

by nktokyo | 16th Feb 23, 12:11pm 1676502688

International students are fantastic for the economy. They pay boatloads more than kiwis and that revenue subsidises studies.

by Pa1nter | 16th Feb 23, 12:17pm 1676503026

Yep. Pretty sure many of our Universities have been running deficits the last couple of years without them.

by ACB | 16th Feb 23, 12:50pm 1676505009

But if there was no permanent residence or work visa attached to that study, would they be here in such numbers? There is a wider cost/benefit consideration to society that is not being talked about.

by Pa1nter | 16th Feb 23, 2:33pm 1676511197

What, like it's a couple hundred grand cheaper to have someone come here as an adolescent or adult, educate themselves, stay and get a job, and pay full price for their tertiary education?

by singautim | 16th Feb 23, 6:31pm 1676525517

That is a very purist attitude to NZ's economy. It saves taxpayers the cost of educating Kiwi kids. Take it to the logical conclusion - save taxpayers the cost of superannuation by giving every 65-year-old the choice of emigration or compulsory euthanasia.

by Pa1nter | 16th Feb 23, 6:50pm 1676526605

We should probably discount emigration; i.e. half the amount of super if someone retires overseas. Given old people suck up a fair amount of domestic health resources.

It's like smoking, smokers are good money, on average die at 65, so less super and aged care to fund, plus they pay a disproportionate amount of tax for the health system.

Fact stands raising and educating children is super expensive to the state, so from a pure accountancy perspective it's cheaper to lure over 20 year old foreign adults.

by HW2 | 16th Feb 23, 9:08pm 1676534932

Lure over foreign adults

Like how first world countries lure over our educated doctors and nurses and good keen young ones

by singautim | 17th Feb 23, 12:34am 1676547263

We use a cunning lure to get our baristas and fruit pickers.

by singautim | 17th Feb 23, 12:33am 1676547191

When I go overseas my Kiwi Super is suspended. What NZ needs is foreigners with foreign pensions paid in NZ (with full medical insurance too).

by Pa1nter | 17th Feb 23, 7:32am 1676572324

Don't you get a limited amount of grace period? I thought people could leave for 3 months or something.

by Yvil | 16th Feb 23, 11:08am 1676498936

Tracking in the "right" direction.

by bw | 16th Feb 23, 11:36am 1676500591

I see what you did there!

Tracking - "I used to be the CEO of a large airline, so I know all about tracking things".

(Why hasn't one of his highly paid advisors told him to stop playing that card; one he used as recently as this morning? Unless... they think that's the best (only?) characteristic he has)

by Cheetahlegs66 | 16th Feb 23, 11:37am 1676500624

77,000 people in 6-months. Who each require housing, add a strain to infrastructure and access to medical services which is at best dysfunctional, at worst collapsing.

I totally align with ACT but can't resolve their push for immigration. It's the simple fix to prop up an economy with no thought for worsening damage. The current shambles had its origin in the late 90's/early 00's.

Now I know how TK feels.

Disclaimer-my entire family are immigrants.

by JavaBoy | 16th Feb 23, 11:44am 1676501084

NZ doesn't need more people. It needs a massive push towards automation. Unfortunately Labour has stripped out one of the critical parts of developing automation by removing Callaghan Innovation Project Grants.

by Advisor | 16th Feb 23, 3:19pm 1676513978

On the contrary, our public sector is becoming more bureaucratic while labour-intensive industries continue to increase their share of economic activity. In 2021, Lithuania and Poland surpassed us in GDP per hour worked, the most common measure of a nation's economic productivity.

by interesting1234 | 17th Feb 23, 9:00am 1676577606

The conundrum I see around this is that the greater automation level we have, the less jobs we have therefore we put further strain on employment in a market that is currently relatively chocca, added to the baby boomers retiring over the next few years. Are we going for automation int he name of efficiency or is it required to automate with a declining birth rate to safegurd the job market in the future? Time will tell

by HouseMouse | 16th Feb 23, 4:41pm 1676518918

Philosophically you are in a problematic position. The whole libertarian philosophy which Act promotes (although they are far from ‘pure’ - they certainly are not libertarian when it suits them politically not to be) is based on the free and unfettered movement of money, goods, services and …. People.

Free and easy immigration is a key part of ACT’s raison d’être .

by singautim | 16th Feb 23, 6:38pm 1676525882

Their immigration policy if easy but not free. Don't they propose a dutch auction for work visas so no more having bureaucrats decide what is a skilled job?

by GV 27 | 17th Feb 23, 9:41am 1676580107

They also wanted a free that priced migration costs to things like the health system at an individual level but placed zero value on the losses from things like increased congestion, lack actually being to access medical care due to a crowded waiting room and the loss of amenity through things like crowding out of beaches and public space through oversubscription on the existing populace, which is quite ironic given that they advocate for 'user pays' - only to a certain extent, it would seem.

by Simon | 16th Feb 23, 11:42am 1676500972

Good trends.

200k plus inward at that sort of run-rate.

Lose 100k maybe to aussie etc.

100k net or there abouts is back to the crazy highs of labour 2019 (after they promised to reduce immigration haha).

We actually need workers though, now more than ever.

It's hard finding labour still so bring em in.

And cbd's need students back too.

All good things.

I'd welcome them all with a powhiri if I could.

by Squishy | 16th Feb 23, 11:46am 1676501194

Nice, the backstop for the housing market. The only problem is with supply so constrained this will likely mean higher near term inflation (even if immigration reduces wages over the long term.)

by singautim | 16th Feb 23, 6:42pm 1676526127

When Covid stopped immigration, I had to drop the rent on my CBD apartment by over 20%. I've been lucky to have had tenants with neighbouring apartments empty for months. The current tenancy completes a year in may so it looks as if rental income will return to norm. Isn't it kind of Labour to keep my little investment thriving.

by nktokyo | 16th Feb 23, 12:13pm 1676502813

There is a lot of slack in housing around our universities. All this means is that

a) More housing will continue to be developed

b) Our universities are better funded

c) Customers for businesses operating in the inner city that have had it tough for the last 3 years.

by Advisor | 16th Feb 23, 3:13pm 1676513602

So, we should bring in more students from overseas with the aim of pushing up aggregate demand for local businesses to cash in on, fantastic!

by nktokyo | 17th Feb 23, 9:31am 1676579477

I wonder at your username. Are you an advisor to the labour party PR department?

by nguturoa | 16th Feb 23, 12:55pm 1676505359

Yeah more into the country to put more misery into the lives of working class people.

The new breed of workers will work for less and they will be exploited by the employers.

The existing workers who are under the inflation pressure will not be able to ask for a pay rise now.

Modern day slavery continues.

by OnceInaWhileIamRight | 16th Feb 23, 1:07pm 1676506051

Aren't the new migrants happy for the opportunities that NZ provides 'working class people'?

by nktokyo | 16th Feb 23, 1:11pm 1676506284

If you're a working class person in New Zealand and don't have a job by now then you don't want one.

by Pa1nter | 16th Feb 23, 2:23pm 1676510605

You'd think being a native English speaker would be enough of a competetive advantage.

by Yvil | 16th Feb 23, 2:42pm 1676511752

"competitive" (ironic spelling mistake given the sentence)

by Yvil | 16th Feb 23, 2:44pm 1676511895

ngutora, the sooner you stop your "poor, good emloyees" "bad, exploitative employers" mantra, the happier you will be.

by K.W. | 16th Feb 23, 3:58pm 1676516330

Australia is attracting most of the international students.

"In 2022, Australia received 362,462 offshore student visa applications. This far exceeded the previous records set in 2018 of 278,691 and in 2019 of 276,183. In 2022, the number of student visa holders in Australia grew from 315,949 at end December 2021 to 456,970 at end December 2022; an increase of 141,021.

This was the single biggest annual increase in student visa holders in Australia ever. This will grow significantly further in 2023."

We're probably just getting the leftover dregs.

by nktokyo | 17th Feb 23, 9:32am 1676579544

Probably mostly high school students. Our government has done sweet f**k all to promote us offshore.

If you ask anyone what they have heard about NZ in the last 5 years it will probably be that poor tourists should stay away.

by mills | 17th Feb 23, 10:12am 1676581938

Thanks Greg for your informative article. I 'get' that incoming student and temporary work visa numbers are rising rapidly after the Covid collapse.

I am probably naive but this knowledge just causes more personal confusion. I am left wondering 'why', is there some cunning plan and purpose that I have missed?

Comments here suggest student applications have little to do with education. Are they just funding props for our arguably excessive numbers of universities? Have these fee paying students captured our universities? Do the courses offered have any merit other than to attract foreign students' money? Are our med schools just preparing our local students for a ticket to depart to foreign employment? In an election year have any of our political parties come out with understandable plans for population/immigration/tertiary training/retention of locally trained students?

I would love for some reader here to point me to a solid well-researched article which might bring some clarity to an old and confused brain.