Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says a Royal Commission of Inquiry will investigate New Zealand's response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The inquiry's terms of reference say its main purpose will be to strengthen the country's preparedness for, and response to, any future pandemic by identifying those lessons learned from the response to the current pandemic.
Ardern noted it had been 100 years since we experienced a pandemic of the scale of Covid-19, saying it's therefore critical to compile what worked and what we can learn from it, should such an event happen again.
“New Zealand experienced fewer cases, hospitalisations and deaths than nearly any other country in the first two years of the pandemic but there has undoubtedly been a huge impact on New Zealanders both here and abroad," Ardern said.
“A Royal Commission of Inquiry is the highest form of public inquiry and is the right thing to do, given the Covid-19 emergency was the most significant threat to the health of New Zealanders and our economy since World War II."
"The Royal Commission has been asked to look at the overall response, including the economic response, identify what we can learn from it and how that can be applied to any future pandemic," said Ardern.
The inquiry will be chaired by Australia-based New Zealand epidemiologist Tony Blakely, who will be joined by former National Party cabinet minister Hekia Parata and former Treasury Secretary John Whitehead.
The scope of the inquiry is the lessons learned from New Zealand’s response to Covid-19 that should be applied in preparation for any future pandemic in the following areas:
- The legislative, regulatory, and operational settings required to support New Zealand’s public health response to a pandemic;
- Communication with, engagement of, and enabling people and communities to mobilise and act in support of both personal and community public health outcomes over an extended period;
- The legislative, regulatory, and operational settings needed to ensure the continued supply of goods and services required to enable people to isolate or otherwise take protective measures for an extended period during a pandemic;
- The legislative, regulatory, and operational settings required to support New Zealand’s immediate economic response to a future pandemic;
- The decision-making structures and arrangements that might be used or put in place during an evolving pandemic of extended length;
- Consideration of the interests of Māori in the context of a pandemic, consistent with the Te Tiriti o Waitangi relationship;
- Consideration of the impact on, and differential support for, essential workers and populations and communities that may be disproportionally impacted by a pandemic.
The inquiry may also assess whether this country's initial elimination strategy and later minimisation and protection strategy and the supporting economic and other measures, were effective in limiting the spread of infection and limiting the impact of the virus on vulnerable groups and the health system.
It will be limited to investigating events that occurred between February 2020 and October 2022 and is tasked with making recommendations on the public health strategies and supporting economic and other measures that should be applied in preparation for any future pandemic.
However consideration of any decisions made by the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee during the pandemic have been ruled to be outside of the inquiry's terms of reference.
The Commission will begin considering evidence on February 1 next year and must deliver its report by 26 June 2024. An election is due late next year.
A summary of the terms of reference is here.
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67 Comments
Well. She got that right.
Not sure.Isn’t there usually a legal input, at least a QC but as in the case of the ChCh terrorism, a Supreme Court judge? The reporting is to be published well & truly past the 2023 election so this announcement today of what should have been ordered over a year ago, means that it will be a damp squid. That is not a fire cracker because the government in question will be long gone. This is typical magician’s wand material. Look at this trick, but you won’t see what it is until it doesn’t matter.
Damp squid?! :)
Tks. Yes once again undone by auto suggest. Must check before buttoning submit. But in someways there is though, something about this government, tentacles reaching, gripping and feeding, reminiscent of a squid.
However consideration of any decisions made by the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee during the pandemic have been ruled to be outside of the inquiry's terms of reference.
Why protect RBNZ - hand in glove.
Don't worry, the outcome of the enquiry will contain the statement in a very serious tone: "Strategic toilet paper hedge needs to be installed and funded by the public, hire 1000 council consultants to monitor and maintain it "
Great, we can find out why deaths in the last two quarters are 10% above normal rather than the usual 1.4% growth rate of the past decade. Or will that be "outside the scope"?
I suspect your comment is based on anti-vax nonsense. Take a closer look at the stats. Look at the most vaxed ethnicity, Asian, vs least vaxed, Maori. Maori generally run at 2.5-3 times the deaths of Asians (probably due to the sizes of each population group). This 2.5-3.0 ratio holds true both pre covid and post covid, so unlikely to be some late vax complication.
Maybe the answer you need lies in a harder winter, more colds and flu now that most people have dropped their guard, and the most obvious reasons: Increased population size, and the bulge of the aging baby boomers who are moving into their final decades of life.
Maori and Asian ethnic profiles in NZ are similar (16.5% vs 15.1% respectively)
https://www.ehinz.ac.nz/indicators/population-vulnerability/ethnic-profile/
True, but their age distribution isn't remotely similar. Asian population has a far higher proportion of adults and older individuals, while Maori have far more young folk. In theory, that bulk of young people should have made the Maori proportion of deaths lower, with them being more resistant to ill health.
So we've got an older, more vaxxed Asian population group vs a younger and less vaxxed Maori group, and their death ratios overall (pre and post covid) remain similar.
So why are younger Maori (the least vaxxed group) dying? Why didn't more elderly Asians die? Gosh, maybe the vax actually proved to be of benefit.
True, Maori likely have far more obecity, diabetes and cardiac pre-existing issues. Maybe the vax didn't benefit them. Maybe it's lifestyle and diet that did them in.
"Asian population has a far higher proportion of adults and older individuals, while Maori have far more young folk." where do you get the data about this one? According to the last census, Asians are the youngest group among the entire population.
The excess deaths however they occurred raises questions about if lockdown was worth it. 8.6% extra for a couple of quarters is probably still far below the counterfactual of what we would have lost if we had just stayed open but if it continues it might not be. Overseas numbers are much worse. This may end up the most important topic on what we should do next time (why and could they have been prevented), thus it must be out of scope.
You might want to look at your maths. I am assuming you were going for a proportional excess which would be 8.6% of the disparity between the chosen ethnicities which would easily fit inside your range.
Its amazing people are still acting like covid is super dangerous. My whole family of 30 is unvaccinated including my 89-year-old grandparents both of them made it through without any symptoms. Those in my family that had a positive RAT test were over it in a day. Very mild. However, I know people boosted that were sick for 8-9 weeks.
It's good you have such a large sample monitored over time, 30 people even.
Haha, I am aware it's anecdotal. Just thought I'd share.
Our kids never seemed to get any symptoms. Wife was rough for a week. I had a headache for a day, tested positive for two.
It's a disease of the fat, sick and very old. Even then it doesn't kill that many, especially omicron.
I think we'll look back on this public health disaster and seriously question the lock downs. Taking the good years from the young in a misguided attempt to protect the old. With the mountain of missed diagnosis, operations and mental health problems plaguing us for years after (not to mention the economic disaster!)
Presumption much? "...harder winter, more colds and flu now that most people have dropped their guard, and the most obvious reasons: Increased population size, and the bulge of the aging baby boomers who are moving into their final decades of life." is covered but the average 1.4% increase per year over the last decade. What has caused this increase to ramp up 7 fold?
"The increase in deaths in the June 2022 year (9.7 percent) was higher than the average annual increase over the previous decade (1.4 percent)." We have not aged 7x faster nor a had a 7x worse winter. Our media was heart broken about every single death last year but now we have an unprecedented death rate the team of $55 million and politicians don't seem interested.
Fill you boots on the stats old chap.
Oh, neat site in your link. Age specific death rates, comparing 2019 onwards seems to show that lockdowns were clearly beneficial, even in the presence of a pandemic disease and that lethal vaccine. As for 2022, it seems to be pretty similar to 2019. Maybe we should go back into lockdown and start a series of more boosters!
Profile your posts are always on point. Data driven, logical, and referenced. Very much approve.
Um, you mean since Omicron has torn through the population? You are wondering why more people are dying?
Apparently it’s gonna cost 15 million. What a waste
….and all the screw ups will be conveniently revealed six months a good six months after they get voted out.
This news is to deter away from the latest One News Kantar poll
Labour have bigger worries than another investigation
1. Did the Government loose 6-weeks in procuring vaccine so an announcement could be made in proximity to the election?
2. Did the Government lie when they said they had not requisitioned RAT tests from independent organisations that had already purchased their own supply?
3.,Why was the Government close to12-months behind Europe in utilising RAT tests as a first line screening tool?
4. How much was paid to the providers of PCR tests and subsequent supply of results?
5. Was the Government legally justified in mandating vaccination for defined groups and how does this reconcile with the PM announcing that no-one would be disadvantaged by remain unvaccinated?
6. Was it lawful to refuse entry to NZ citizens who wanted to return home?
7. Where the levels, phases and traffic light systems understood?
8. Why didn’t vaccine records interface with the National Immunisation Register? There was Lenny of lead time.
the list goes on and on. Go rot Ardern
“Go rot Ardern.” That is savage, and it is entirely justified comment. The interview by Ryan Bridge today revealed a prime minister of our nation completely at sea, arms and hands waving grotesquely, just as in the protestors interview, and hiding behind the fallacious and duplicitous notion that the entrenchment clause was entirely initiated by the Greens. Three blind mice can see through that. A disgraceful calculated attack on our democracy by a untrustworthy scheming prime minister and her government. C’mon James, c’mon Chloe where are you, are you really part and parcel to polluted, foul play and if so why? This is a shameful, squalid government and if it carries forward as such for much longer, it will quite justifiably, be the ruin of the Labour Party for a decades to come, if not forever.
The melodrama does get pretty tiring to read. We get it, you dislike Ardern like many of us. But it sounds like you're practicing your writing for an upcoming NCEA Level 2 short story assignment.
Amen to that Nzdan...not to mention that all this out and out hatred for JA is giving the opposition a free ride and not making them earn the right to govern. Once again NZ will swap to the other side blindly then say they are surprised when they come with the austerity measures and tighten budgets in health,policing,education,followed by privatisation of water etc.
100%. It's just the same old tired nitpicking from the political fanboys. National will be voted in, and then it'll be rah rah rah rah from the "red team".
It's one thing to have the political odd chirp and jibe on this site, but this comments section is slowly turning into a festering hate-filled echo chamber. Maybe the ones making all this noise are hurting from the phasing out of Interest Deductibility on rentals, and this is their way of coping when nobody is online on PropertyTalk.
Agreed Nzdan,some I think are desperate to change the govt before the full interest deductibilty removal kicks in for them.
Red team, blue team. Two wings of the same bird laying the same rotten eggs.
The stench from Ardern, however, has become so bad that there is an increasing urgency to push her from the nest.
Well I can answer two of those.
In regards to RAT testing (I know the T stands for testing), we didn't want a screening tool, we wanted a diagnostic tool. They were not fit for purpose when they would be missing 20% of positive cases in a country which had managed to lock COVID out for a bit. Remember the time line - no vaccinations, 20% of cases being missed would have led to an Italy like scenario, it might have taken slightly longer (a few weeks) but it would have happened here. Of course by that time we had already had two GP's die from COVID, even when we had locked it out effectively, after catching it from pts, but heck lets just chuck all our healthcare professionals under the bus with a screening rather than a diagnostic tool. Are you aware that nearly 700 doctors and nurses died in the UK in their first wave? And countless care workers in rest homes died too. Many care workers here lived on site and didn't go home to families for fear of passing on COVID to their loved ones. Our border workers did the same. Are you aware of how the hospital systems collapsed in full view in other parts of the world, because you should be. It was all over the news. In the UK there were treatments that were not offered to anyone over the age of 50 (50!) - there was an interview with an Doctor who was on Fellowship in Cambridge, UK, on RNZ. Find it, listen to it.
PCR testing was done by the labs which were part of all the DHB's. It likely cost a lot. This service was not provided by private companies. Many of the lab technicians worked incredible amounts of overtime and were under the pump for weeks doing their best to get the results GP's so the millions of pts who didn't require hospitalisation had a diagnosis and the GP's knew what they were dealing with. 7 days a week, 24 hours a day, for months.
There's plenty of people now 'rotting' because of COVID, because they are dead. But there are a lot less of them because of how this pandemic was managed in NZ at the beginning. It was hard, it still is hard, but it would have been much tougher if we had 'let it rip' - alot more rotting going on in fact.
Gracey,great post.
"But there are a lot less of them because of how this pandemic was managed in NZ at the beginning. It was hard, it still is hard, but it would have been much tougher if we had 'let it rip' - a lot more rotting going on in fact."
A lot more rotting compared to where and whom? Some model?
"We observed a mortality that was lower than expected for the age group 0–69 in both countries through the pandemic year compared with each of the five preceding years. Hence, for the working population that comprises >85% of the two countries, the COVID-19 pandemic has not had a negative impact on all-cause mortality. ...However, the decrease in mortality rate in the age group 0–69 years in Sweden in the pandemic year was significantly larger than in Norway."
Mortality in Norway and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/14034948211047137
"The observational study design does not provide an opportunity to draw conclusions about the causal relationship between the mitigation measures, either as a total or for specific measures (e.g. school-closing), in Norway and Sweden and their effects on the two countries’ differences in mortality rates." - from your link.
Sweden is interesting but a key difference, and this is mentioned in the conclusion, is the difference in populations. Many Swedes live alone, we have large multigenerational households, they do admit they made a mistake with rest homes. They briefly discuss immigrants being affected more. They actually did a lot of mitigation (for longer than us actually) - you can find this at the COVID Containment and Health Index and play with dates and countries to compare. I was surprised at the length of time they had far more measures than us, not that you would know about it by reading comments online. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-stringency-index
However, while you have linked a study - observational studies are not very reliable and it is more important to find a pattern in many of them rather than rely on one. In addition to that both Norway and Sweden have better health care systems than us. One of the frustrating things is comparing to other countries, every country had to deal with this depending on their resources, populations, etc. It's complex. And people do extended degrees to work this stuff out.
Lastly - none of what you wrote relates to the specificity and sensitivity of RATS vs PCR in a population with no antibodies to a virus or the comments re: protecting health care professionals and maintaining some kind of functioning healthcare system in NZ.
Another great post Gracey
That would be a slight difference in population. Hardly a key difference as you put it. Did you miss "In addition, the population in Norway is slightly younger than in Sweden". I would suggest the biggest difference is that Sweden was one the few western countries that didn't lock down and kept their children at school.
Did you miss the next paragraph? "This is the first study to compare complete 2020 real-world data from two very similar countries, but with different overall approaches to control the pandemic. This provides an interesting setting for our difference-in-difference analysis, investigating the association of mitigation measures with mortality, without the use of modelling and by using transparent calculations. The registration of all-cause mortality is mandatory and similar in Norway and Sweden, making all-cause mortality in the two countries more reliable for assessing the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic than cause-specific deaths only, which can be biased by differences in the testing and reporting of causes of death."
I wasn't really interested in your minutiae of RAT/PCR - more your "A lot more rotting" comment. Why were there not a lot more people rotting in Sweden? Why are there a lot more people rotting now in NZ compared to the height of the pandemic?
No learning loss in Sweden during the pandemic: Evidence from primary school reading assessments
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883035522000891
Again, we are not the same as Norway and Sweden, not the same population in terms of health ie Type 2 DM, obesity and our healthcare system is not as resourced .... so if you want to follow Sweden lets up the taxes and get our health system in the same shape as them, and then when the next pandemic comes (and it will) we could do things differently.
I think we all realise NZ’s health system was over pressured well before the pandemic and too, this particular government. Therefore as this situation was so starkly exposed by the pandemic, your point is vitally correct. NZ’s health system needs urgent priority to be refurbished right across the board. The government thought to commence this with $billion or so makeover of the MoH, its line of communication and command if you like. That appears to be generally accepted as being necessary but the timing in the midst of a pandemic, when frontline clinicians & associates were already heavily pressed, was appalling. Those funds needed to be at the coalface and directed to recruiting suitable reinforcements from overseas, returnees and immigrants alike. But getting back to your point, from what I can see none of the political parties on offer are providing meaningful expressions of serious funding to rectify the entrenched inadequacies.
Agree Foxglove. We are now living in Spain and are blessed to have comprehensive, well organised and qualified medical expertise available in our village of 30thousand permanent residents. When our youngest is unwell we see a Paediatrician, while I’ve had easy access to Cardiologists, Traumatologists and GP’s with minimal wait times.
My previous life was in dental in NZ and was frankly very happy to sell my clinic following the first lockdown. Being audited by the Labour Government’s MoH foot soldiers after working obscene hours helping patients desperate after those months behind bars was a step too far.
For many of our cohort the Ardern government was the end of our careers and contributions to NZ Health. I was very angry but no more. Now it’s just plain sad seeing the run away social discourse, division and waste of precious talent due to inability to recognise those who suffered serious career stress as a result of policy decisions.
Many will not say publicly but it violates our ethics that a Government expects health professionals to value a Māori life over that of an “other”. For that moral degradation is rephensible, period.
I agree completely - both of the main parties are to blame for where the healthcare system is now. The pandemic just exposed, and sped up, the decline. It is not going to be fixed easily, particularly as we move through the next 30 years of the Boomer generation aging, with all that goes with that. Not to mention the number of health care workers in their 50's and 60's who will retire. And actually, while I understand the 'let in the trained people from overseas' arguement that view is very Kiwicentric. There is a worldwide shortage of healthcare workers, and caregivers, and we will rob other countries of their people when they need care too. No easy solution, but avoiding another pandemic would be good!!!
Trolling comment deleted. - GN
The good news is she hasn't launched a Royal Commission into all the other governmental botchups. The only two reasons for this Royal Commission are to distract us from all those other governmental botchups, and to stop us all asking about how she could be in charge of such a botchup as there is a Royal Commission being held, and she can't possibly comment until it's findings are announced. Just remember what Dilbert's boss said about Royal Commissions."Why would I pay someone to give me the wrong answer?"
Jeez,some folk in here need to stop taking the grumpy pills.As a letter to the editor in the Herald said the other day "pessimism is contagious".
our resident Adern fanboys are getting desperate. Good.
I have voted for National, Labour and other parties but some vile comments on here put me off the right. Remember how National treated Canterbury quake victims and you might never vote for them again.
This site is becoming quite unbalanced with some posters coming across as unhinged,but these have been the toughest of times and I will be charitable and say that perhaps there is some mental health issues going on with some.Perhaps a walk in the fresh air? Becoming so triggered about issues can't be healthy.
Unhinged? Is that you Willie? A Minister of the Crown, no less. A powerful voice in cabinet certainly. But in the recent interview with Tame, unhinged? Not at all, a screw loose perhaps but unhinged a total exaggeration undeniably. This is only my opinion of course, but if that is an appropriate standard, behaviour and presentation of a Minister of the Crown, that sits comfortably amidst cabinet, then this entire government is obviously pitched at the same level. There it is.
It's just typical of conservative values. Conserving ones status yadda yadda. Don't get picked first so sabotage everyone else by quitting and taking the ball home.
Correction to the headline: "PM saw the latest poll and had to create another headline just to confuse the unassuming public"
Oh please,another conspiracy theory,so the poll was released at 6pm,JA,quickly rang around and arranged a royal commission in an afternoon...the comments in here are getting more 'Fox' every day.
After the last few years I take EVERY SINGLE WORD from her with a grain of salt. It's not a left/right issue, not a conspiracy, it's just a complete lack of trust in her and her associates.
I am pretty sure most of the stuff about the 1pm assurances that things were happening despite investigative journalists pointing out they were not will fall outside of the remit. Which is a shame, as part of the pandemic plan has to be trust in the officials giving the messaging, government or civil service - it does not matter.
It would be a shame if this fell outside the terms of reference.
Will they go into how the government confiscated the RATs that businesses had ordered, because they themselves were so far behind the 8-ball, and then lied about it to us for weeks?
It’s rather a long list from which to compile an enquiry isn’t it. Of course if you control the terms of reference that can be both shortened and neutralised accordingly.
Given the usefulness of RAT tests depends on the skill of the person taking the sample, I'd say they were the biggest waste of time since Noah put out the sun loungers on the ark.
Its amazing how any article on Covid brings all the crazies out of the woodwork. Are they always reading interest articles or do they have bots searching the internet for the appearance of articles on Covid?
Everyone is allowed to have an opinion, simply because you disagree with one doesn't make it invalid or make them crazy, this is the fundamental problem that covid times has brought about. Everyone labels people if they don't follow the main rhetoric. At least when it comes to economics most are more open to discussion
Yeah but it seems to be getting more polarized and rabid. You used to be able to have sensible nuanced discussions on here now it's just all "worst government ever", "Ardern can rot", "attack on democracy" etc. Get a grip everyone, this isn't FB!
Is it bad that the first thought that popped into my mind after reading the headline was a wondering about how this enquiry might be self serving?
A sign of the times I guess.
Gratuitous offensive comment removed.
Oh grow up, you get to vote next year - do it and count yourself lucky you're not in the USSR.
Hey Einstein Say that in march when your house has lost another 20% and the economy is rooted.
Idiots voted them in and idiots are the ones who will feel it worst ..
But don't you worry ... Your rentals will be fine 🙄😁
I didn't vote for them and I don't have any rentals but another 20% off house prices would be no bad thing (overall).
"fewer cases, hospitalisations and deaths"
Maybe during COVID. Let's hope the inquiry also looks into the massive increase in mental health issues and the huge backlog we now have for surgeries.
Just about fell off my chair when I read that the vaccine efficacy was outside the scope. Before the rollout it was well known that it would be non-sterilizing. Seems like quite an important detail to me.
Also why was ivermectin confiscated and the border, and doctors forbidden from proscribing it when there's mountain of evidence for it's effectiveness against covid19. Seems weird because the media made sure that molnupiravir and paxlovid became household names. Why was vitamin D never talked about? Why was Povidone-iodine gargle or any of the other less expensive at-home interventions never mentioned by the PM, health minister, or anyone in the media at any point during the last two years? I guess that's all outside the scope.
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