Foreign workers and international students are starting to return to New Zealand in significant numbers.
The latest figures from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, which includes Immigration NZ under its umbrella, show 12,378 people arrived in NZ on work visas in October.
The numbers dropped away sharply to an average of less than 500 a month after March 2020 when pandemic travel restrictions were introduced, but have increased steadily since February this year when just 285 people arrived on work visas.
The 12,378 foreign workers arriving in October was well below the 23,469 arriving pre-pandemic in October 2019. However it may not be long before the numbers arriving are back up to pre-pandemic levels.
There tends to be about a three month delay from the time a work visa is approved until the worker arrives, so the 12,378 arrivals in October roughly matches the 12,603 work visas approved in July this year.
Work visa approvals have increased substantially since then, with 16,650 approved in September and 28,410 approved in October.
That suggests the number of overseas workers arriving could be back up to where it was pre-pandemic by about the beginning of next year.
International student numbers are also starting to increase significantly.
They also dropped away to almost nothing after March 2020, but since January this year, when just 93 people arrived on student visas, the numbers have grown steadily, with 2712 arriving in October.
That's still less less than half the 7203 arriving in pre-pandemic October 2019, but the numbers are increasing reasonably quickly as we head towards January and February, which are usually the peak months for international student arrivals.
There were also another 8304 residence visas approved in October under the special 2021 Residence Visa approval process which was set up last year.
That was a one-off scheme providing a fast track to residency for skilled workers who had already been in NZ for several years.
So far 115,770 residence visas have been approved under the scheme, of which 62,937 were principal applicants, usually the main breadwinner, and 52,833 were secondary applicants, usually family members of the principal applicant.
Note: Interest.co.nz will no longer be publishing the monthly summaries of Statistics NZ's migration data because of concerns over its accuracy. Interest.co.nz has been monitoring Statistics NZ's provisional migration data as it is published each month and comparing that to subsequent revisions. This has revealed that that the revisions can be substantial, and in some cases the difference has been as much as 85%. This raises concerns about the accuracy, reliability and usefulness of the Statistics NZ data, which means we will no longer be publishing the monthly summary.
The comment stream on this article is now closed.
- You can have articles like this delivered directly to your inbox via our free Property Newsletter. We send it out 3-5 times a week with all of our property-related news, including auction results, interest rate movements and market commentary and analysis. To start receiving them, register here (it's free) and when approved you can select any of our free email newsletters.
195 Comments
Still this won't compete with the Rising Interest Rates.
Nothing can stop this Crash.
So desperate for a crash Future/Retired Poppy... every article you're talking about it...
Tim - it's already here.
Tim, nice but dim
Nifty, it is obvious that Future and Retired Poppy are different people.
They have different writing styles, words they use, predictions and perspectives. They are obviously different ages and come from different backgrounds.
Their "fingerprints" are obviously different.
To keep calling them the same person is quite frankly mental.
'Quite frankly mental' lol so defensive, calm down... are you telling Future not to call me TTP - oh it's so offensive.
Its quite frankly mental that Nifty1, Pa1nter and HW2 are the same person. This is the second time I've raised this. There is a pattern of small mindedness in the comments of all three usernames. It reeks of desperation when Spruikers deploy such tactics to over represent themselves and get a few extra upvotes. The other thing I've noticed is that HW2 is first to accuse others of the things he's also doing. HW2 has also accused me of being Fitzgerald wtf...
I just find it incredibly sad that people really need to create multiple accounts to try to give strength to their arguments. It just shows how weak their original arguments are to begin with, thus requiring the creation of 'fake reinforcement' to support it.
I understand now why some people want a housing crash. It's probably because of their lack of productivity in NZ therefore to afford a home, they need the bar to be lowered. I think it's a shame that some people are so short sighted and doesn't realize that fair competition, high productivity, is what drives economies and countries to the next level. Dragging your neighbours down only hurts the country as a whole.
-7
"It's probably because of their lack of productivity in NZ therefore to afford a home, they need the bar to be lowered."
Laughably stupid take. Houses cost more than they should for a variety of reasons that have been endlessly noted in these forums. This is patently obvious to anybody who doesn't have their own self-interests at heart.
Bashing on renters has become our national sport.
You do know that productivity is not doing more things, it is doing things smarter & more efficiently.
Low wages and low waged immigrants do not drive productivity anywhere except down.
A higher minimum wage increases productivity as capital substitution occurs.
I'm not spruiking anything, if I was designing a society this sure as shit wouldn't be it. But here we are, like it or not.
If I was after radical transformation, I'd just walk into the woods.
Pa1nter - one of the Famous Four !
Sure it can, things can change direction overnight. The war could escalate in Europe and a few more climate change disasters thrown in for good measure. The world hit a record number of displaced people a month or so ago, it topped 100 Million for the first time. NZ only needs a tiny fraction of the 1% at the top with money that suddenly decide to bail to a safe haven and you have a complete reversal. Its easy to control immigration, even Labour can do that.
considering labor shortage is one cause of inflation, I'd say more workers coming in means more productivity tackles inflation, and rising interest rates.
More people doesn't necessarily mean more productivity. I'd have thought a ready source of cheap labour strongly discourages productivity improvements - why invest when you can just hire more grunts?
2 labourers get more work done in a day than 3 individuals.
That's a rough rule of thumb anyway.
So a return to massive immigration doesn't fuel demand? Interesting.
More immigration..mostly low skilled people and, students on low wages puts more demand on the infrastructure without generating the tax revenue to pay for its maintenance and upgrade. It implies more overloaded rental accomodation as they cant afford houses..
Somehow i cant see nz improving as a result.
Future is the inverse TTP
Lol look at this guy, always wishing for a housing doom and crash. Keep going with that dream.
Cant buy houses on working visas in any case.
That's correct but they do rent houses. NZ residents, and others will buy the houses.
The fear is strong in this one.
Will they have jobs to come to if approved in the next few months, we will see.
Of course they will, it's so hard getting staff, I suppose you're not an employer IT Guy?
Yvil are you old enough to have experienced the crash after 1987?
Some people will lose their jobs
There will still be shortages that the recently unemployed can't fill.
IT Guy, so you avoided answering the question by asking a different question…
Is he in IT or politics?
Hopefully you will find more cleaners for the motel Yvil...medium wage must hurt other bottom line huh?
100% occupancy rates due to emergency housing keeps the bills paid care of all us Taxpayers.
Thanks Baywatch, we hired another (Kiwi) cleaner last week, she seems to be really good, hopefully it will last. I'm not sure what you mean with the second part of your post?
... amongst the flood of work visas/refugees/immigrants , any nurses ? ... anyone we actually need ... or , just fill the place up with bodies , courier drivers , burger flippers ...
What's wrong with courier drives or burger flippers GBH?
Nothing wrong with these occupations, it's just they are relatively low skill and we probably already have enough of these skills in N.Z.
Going by all the help wanted signs, apparently not.
You are right Yvil. I use to be burger flipper, toilet cleaner but now I employ 20 people. So you can't judge the book by its cover.
Also very hard to get good employees even after paying decent wages. We need migrants.
Easy op. We need an education system and social policy that will create good people and not ram raiders.
For some reason we keep want to keep the same old BS failed policies that perpetuate this mess.
Immigration will not solve it.
‘We need an education system and social policy that will create good people’
I don’t disagree, but you are missing an important factor - good parents/families.
our country’s social mess is complex, but you can’t address it without addressing individual responsibility as well as government policy.
Can systems fix people?
Havent seen that occur anywhere yet.
His wording was sloppy but you get the point.
you don’t think a good education system is a very good start for a good society?
As a basic principle education is a good thing. It may not necessarily produce "good people" though.
Also, we've been subsidising education for decades, yet have shortages in many key fields.
Ram raiding etc is a problem with more complex foundations and an almost unknowable solution, outside of just giving people money.
Spot on HM. When 98% of decile 1 students can't read or write what future do they have? This is where it starts not ambulance at the bottom of the cliff policy.
Countries with higher productivity than NZ manage with far lower rates of immigration.
It is very simple: immigrants in low paid jobs are bad for NZ and immigrants in high paid jobs are good for NZ and middling salary have minimal effect.
Not that simple. The countries with higher productivity and lower population usually occupy niches which aren't replicable in NZ. Tax havens, transport hubs and banking sectors.
and many high wealth countries are stock full of foreign workers, they just don't count as "immigrants" because they live in a different (Cheaper) country and cross the border each day (Some good examples are Monaco, Luxembourg, Gibraltar, and Liechtenstein).
It even occurs domestically. Aspen in the states is a good example, as is Queenstown in NZ.
There are many exceptions but managing fairly well with low immigration are South Korea, Japan, Iceland, Denmark, Norway. Of course the effect of high -v- low rates of immigration requires decades not a few unusual years. NZ has had high rates of immigration for 70 years - our productivity growth and export growth has been poor over the entire period. Not disastrous but poor compared to other developed countries. It hit home to me when I had a long trip to England this year - everywhere seemed a little wealthier than NZ - judging mainly by the goods in supermarkets and the cars being driven. It seemed the opposite when I first visited NZ 30 years ago.
It is very simple: immigrants in low paid jobs are bad for NZ and immigrants in high paid jobs are good for NZ
That's a harsh generalisation and I disagree! There is a saying in french "Nul n'est prophète en son pays" which basically means that it's easier to be successful in a foreign country because people who have the courage to emigrate also have the hunger for a better life and therefore the drive to succeed. There's also a second reason being that there is much less fear of being judged by one's peers should one fail, and therefore that person is more likely to take a chance. Personally, I think had I stayed in Switzerland, I would have achieved less than having moved to make my life in NZ.
Generalisation true. There are some high wealth immigrants to NZ who are shit and many who arrive penniless and build businesses that enrich our lives.
My generalisation was about effect on NZ. The effect on immigrants themselves is almost the opposite. The wealthy arrive, pay taxes, build houses, help our economy but may not be attached to NZ. They may move on. The desperate who pay their family's life savings to 'immigration consultants' and arrive in NZ to be exploited and work long hours for little money end up as citizens, send their kids to NZ schools and they often do really well just as you describe.
However those poor immigrants cost NZ by being net beneficiaries; they are occupying houses, requiring all the physical infrastructure and support services such as education, superannuation, health care. If this was not true then all countries would have open borders.
I would also point out that higher-skilled/cash-up migrants (especially those with a generational living approach) tend to spend more on things like houses as they have access to 1.5x earnings - taxed in another region, not in NZ - to spend on a dwelling, which then pushes up the expected prices for these things past the point that locals can afford them on actual wages earned on a regular cycle and taxed in NZ.
I'm convinced this 'introduced capital vs. operating income' imbalance is the reason why we have so much development of large high-spec houses and a dire shortage of affordable options that aren't cubby holes.
Plus the other issue with professional migrants is you end up with jobs that you are still training people with the lure of a stable career with a good incomes being facing downwards wage pressure in the face of a huge supply of offshore labour. We have thousand of hundreds, probably thousands of graduate accountants leaving university a year but accountants are still on the regional skilled shortage lists.
I'm convinced this 'introduced capital vs. operating income' imbalance is the reason why we have so much development of large high-spec houses and a dire shortage of affordable options that aren't cubby holes.
It's really just down to basic figures and profitability. A housebuilder can either build 5-6 GJ Gardner style houses at less than 5% margin, or one high end house and make 2-4x the profit on the same $ turnover. Few builders are going to actively choose for the former.
Rest assured theres a steady stream of monied non-migrant people wanting flash homes.
The demand has to be there for the high end house at a good margin to make that choice, and if you have people with earnings coming in that aren't constrained by local factors, you can price your 'upper end' even higher. And that's absolutely a smart and rational thing for a contractor to do, to go after that work.
It doesn't help that the GJ houses are wickedly overpriced for what you actually get. Fletchers is also a serial offender in that regard. So we don't have a lot of competition at the lower end to actually exert much downwards pressure either.
I'd love a five bedroom family executive home, which was doable on my profession's wages a decade ago if you wanted to make some sacrifices. But now those are priced at the generational families, some of whom are bringing parents who have a lifetime of savings to throw at a house. So there is a divergence between what you can earn locally and what houses are priced at - again, it's a rational approach to pricing. But I'm not convinced it's a great outcome.
I guess it's hard to comprehend the number of monied cash buyers out there. Who knows maybe when times get tough they'll pull back.
The GJ Gardner houses are priced for what they are, and they're having to try and source subcontractor labour who are also chasing more profitable work. There's very little upside in them for the people building them, hence they try to upsell you on things like a deck, or nicer counter tops.
To come in significantly lower, you'd need a builder who really knows what they're doing, and most people don't know who that'd be.
As someone in and around the industry, I'd advise anyone but the brave or wealthy to build a house.
Well said "bloodymigrant" and kudos to you for making it from a "burger flipper" to owning your own business and employing 20 staff! That's a great story that shows that immigrants and/or low wage earners can make it big in life.
These are jobs that YOU guys don't want to do, thus the inflation issues we are facing. Absolutely nothing wrong with these jobs and I salute those who play a more active role in filling these roles to make a living. Better than those who waste their time have multiple accounts on this forum board to wish for a housing crash. NZ productivity at it's best!
NZ needs immigration. Maybe these people can teach us a thing or two on true struggle, hunger, fighting for something.
-7
I have a dream...
-7
I have a dream.... and while I keep dreaming, NZ productivity continues to flounder and inflation continues to be issues because of the lack of productivity...
-Fitzgerald & 7
Good post. To add to that I would like to see preferential treatment to our Pacific Islander brothers and sisters to emigrate to NZ. With the issues they are facing, especially in Tonga I think we are honour bound to bring them here if they wish. They are very humble people and not too proud to perform many of the tasks which are difficult to fill at the moment in our export driven industries. As long as they are not exploited and paid a decent wage. Let’s look to extending a helping hand to our neighbours first.
Agree with you that we have a duty to areas of Polynesia that we administered - Samoa, Tokelau, Niue, and the Cooks - but Tonga was never our responsibility.
When the alternative help comes from China, I don't think it would hurt us to be a bit more generous with our pacific Neighbours.
There are only 100,000 Tongans. They just look larger.
A reciprocal agreement - they can come here and we can go there. NZ to provide medical and educational services before China or the USA does.
So what I if China does? How will that threaten NZ?
Whaka, why do we always have to have "preferential treatment" ? Why can we not live in an equal society where everyone has the same rights and opportunities and no one gets special treatment ?
What I mean by preferential treatment of immigrants refers to Pacific Island applicants getting selected preferentially when it comes to certain skill sets as opposed to sourcing people with the same skills from other countries. Even saying it sounds condescending as these would be generally lower skilled jobs. It is not meant in that manner. Simply a method of differentiating between certain required skill sets and providing a pathway for Pacific peoples to become citizens in our country and contribute as they have always done if it is their wish to do so.
I’m observing a property crash.. not wishing for one.
-7
Where is the crash. Your true friend Tony Alexander said that house prices are UP 22 percent since Covid. Last month prices were flat to slight increase. I suggest you dont invest in meta shares or crypto, now there's a crash
PS have you emailed Tony with your opinions yet
Tony Alexander wouldn’t reply to my email. I believe that property should not be an investment as it’s made it extremely tough for the next generation. He and I are reading off a different script. HW2… you clearly think high prices are a good thing for you and NZ… I do not. Kapeesh?
-7
Then what exactly did you disagree with Tony's revent article
Who said that is what I think. There is no need to be presumptuous
Kapeesh yourself.
Dont mind this guy. He loves spending his time complaining about everything not given to him on a silver platter, while he posts his lovely posts on forums whom probably get a few hundred views a day. Maybe the issue isn't the housing prices. Maybe the issue is why you are wasting time and channeling your energy in creating more wealth for yourself, instead of wishing for doom & gloom for the world?
And glad you love using my auto-signature. I'm hoping to start a cult. I already have a few people following it. Makes me feel important :)
-7
Another unproductive NZ'er who loves posting nonsense on a discussion board to validate himself and create self worth. Maybe to compensate for something else that is lacking? No clue.
Well done utilizing my signature. You've done well for yourself.
-7
Oh it's a signature - I actually thought that was some sort of self deprecating -7 votes or something.
Perhaps I need to look at implementing one.
How's this...
- NORFLND'R
It's kind of like tagging, but for us middle class folk
Imagine actually going to the effort of typing -7 at the end of each comment.
Not as much as I enjoy seeing you all respond so much nonsense to my post. Love wasting peoples time in typing a comment and driving down productivity ;) Maybe that will help with your wish on crashing everyone's property. Disclosure, I don't even own any property in NZ anymore!
Enjoy bashing on my auto-signature. I love feeding off your energy!
-7
So you waste your time coming on here....in hopes that you end up wasting other people's time.....for your own joy? Somethings not right in your head.
Aww that's cute. How much time did it take you to come up with that one? The whole day? Wonderful. NZ productivity at it's best :)
I love that I caught your attention. It feeds me so much energy! Enjoy the "housing crash" and keep on dreaming!
-7
There's a rumour going around that you're actually only a -4.
GBH.. my wife is a dhb nurse. Always orientating nurses, largely from India and the Philippines. They don't stay for much over the 2 years required before leaving, mainly to Oz - better paid, cheaper accom and closer/cheaper flights back home when visiting relatives. Her manager last week trumpeting a list of 35- 40 new ones coming,(just for their specialty area), seemingly unaware that they are only going to replace the last such group. NZ is just a means to get OUT of the sh++y place they came from. We need people that actually WANT to live in NZ. Perhaps we need big incentives, but written off over a much longer time frame to encourage people to establish themselves here. Otherwise we are just perpetually creating more new New Zealanders that live offshore and are a potential liability for health and superannuation. Them and their extended family.
GBH.. my wife is a dhb nurse. Always orientating nurses, largely from India and the Philippines. They don't stay for much over the 2 years required before leaving, mainly to Oz - better paid, cheaper accom and closer/cheaper flights back home when visiting relatives
Better pay, cheaper housing.
Unfortunately, property speculator entitlement and its grip on policy has broken what once made NZ an attractive destination: the lifestyle, being "a great place to raise kids".
And as my brown skinned Australian relative points out NZ is less skin-colour racist than most countries.
Agreed in a traditional description of racism, but I think there is very strong racism from Maoris towards non-Maoris.
Oh gawwwwwwd
what a horrible generalisation, that is completely unfair.
And do you still think the Moriori were the first inhabitants off this country and wiped off the face of the earth by the invading Maori, or have you finally learnt some proper NZ history after being here for at least 30 years????
I was first on the bus out of town this evening. Subsequent passengers didn’t seem aware that they owed me homage for allowing them to also travel on said bus.
Another unfair generalisation.
But here is the Truth. No more P.C lies.
I always wonder why there is such a reluctance and disregard by our people to even consider that there might have been others before us. To me it is so interesting and something I think should be explored further. There seems to be plenty of evidence to suggest NZ could have been inhabited pre Maori, and that certainly seems to be the case for the Chatham Islands.
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://forms.justice.govt.nz/search/Documents/WT/wt_DOC_68595363/Rekoh…
Perhaps it is vested interest and the implications that come with such a discovery...
Why else do you think such suggestions are meet with harsh responses?
Is anyone else having difficulties logging into Interest with Press Patron?
Yes, we have a problem. Here is the note we posted yesterday.
----
LOG IN ISSUE
We have a known issue for readers logging in via Press Patron, which affects ad-free access. We are working on a fix, although don't have a resolution yet. Apologies
----
Sorry, but there is no progress yet, and no expected resolution.
OK, thanks for the update DC!
"Students"
These people all need somewhere to live. And will create extra demand for rentals which should suit investors and those planning to invest.
I would prefer immigration policy that is focused the long-term best interests of NZ, rather than whats suits residential property 'investors'.
I was using "Student" in inverted commas, as I believe in a lot of cases its just a work-around to getting residency, rather than getting an education.
I would prefer immigration policy that is focused the long-term best interests of NZ, rather than whats suits residential property 'investors'.
Would make a good change, yeah.
"I would prefer immigration policy that is focused the long-term best interests of NZ, rather than whats suits residential property 'investors"
Of course, but we're not letting migrant workers in to help property investors, we're letting migrant workers in because we have an incredible shortage of people to fill jobs!
👍
Do we even have a vision of what the long-term best interests of NZ are?
We were told the rockstar economy was the place to be...
My Auckland apartment pre-Covid rented at $525pw and for the last two years it is $425. Pre-covid for a decade it was never empty; since then a couple of months with zero income. Bring back those students and I'll be smiling. However is it good for NZ - that's another question?
"The number of overseas workers coning to NZ "
Please tell me that's a spelling mistake ?
Thanks for the correction Gregg. I was getting a little worried.
Yep, typo, needed a second N!!!
That's really great news !!! Awesome !!!
Yippee!
"Note: Interest.co.nz will no longer be publishing the monthly summaries of Statistics NZ's migration data because of concerns over its accuracy. Interest.co.nz has been monitoring Statistics NZ's provisional migration data as it is published each month and comparing that to subsequent revisions. This has revealed that that the revisions can be substantial, and in some cases the difference has been as much as 85%. This raises concerns about the accuracy, reliability and usefulness of the Statistics NZ data, which means we will no longer be publishing the monthly summary."
Was there anyone else here that had wondered about the Statistics ?
The classic Australian approach: Fire a number out there that people can live with, come back and change it later when everyone has moved on.
It's hard to hide the Interest Rates, although you can never mention Standard Rates for Standard People in articles. You can also never do an article on the ratio of how many people are on standard rates compared to Special Rates.
Immigration statistics and even Property Decline Numbers - Well, how do you really know ?
In Australia many agents will hide the numbers from the public when the market goes the wrong way.
#NZCOVIDDATA
Just in time to buy the record number of houses that have just been listed on trademe....
While prices were a mixed bag around the country, the supply of property increased annually in every region, with the biggest jumps in Nelson/Tasman (up 84%), Waikato (up 82%), and Northland (up 70%).
Trade Me Property sales director Gavin Lloyd says property supply was up 43% annually in October.
Lloyd said supply nationwide rose by 43% in October. Last month also saw the highest number of listings ever recorded.
Better Be Quick to get in front of the minimum wage Migrants.......
I wonder if the bank will give them the money ?
If the Interest Rates are going to 10% Next Year, Guaranteed, I would hate to think what the stress test would be ?
I’m beginning to think Interest commenters are 90% Russian trolls. Same names every single article spouting the same self-serving narrative.
I agree. Everyone with a different view to me is posting from a botfarm somewhere.
Under no circumstances will I let anyone challenge my own beliefs before I question their legitimacy. Absolutely unthinkable.
Yeah the repetitive cut and paste stuff gets a bit much and adds nothing to the conversation, maybe a better job could be done at removing spam.
Sadly it's not bots and even worse it's some desperate individuals spending their time logging in and out of different accounts to be seen...
Tim Mordaunt has got 4 accounts. The Famous Four.
What are they?
I remember a while back there was a mix up by Tim who forgot to log out of one account before posting a classic "property is our god" comment and signing off TTP
Yes every time TTP (Tim The Price-fixer) posts - 3 likes almost instantly appear ... a leopard can't change its spots
Haha love it. Sometimes I can't wait to get to the comments section just to see what our boy TTP has to say. If everyone had their own hype-man like the property market has TTP the world would be a better place.
If TTP Tim Mordaunt is willing to commit crimes resulting in fines of 1.5 million dollars, then I don't think the PriceFixer would have any problem with setting up multiple accounts to try to manipulate the comment section. He is desperate.
I mean would this face lie.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/91418098/property-brokers-manawatu-and…
Has anyone else noticed the Vested Interest Brigade getting extra precious today ? It's all Crashing around them and they know it !
Popcorn Time.
Imagine how successful you'd be if you put the time you spend trying to get a rise out of people into something productive.
Give us your address, I'll send you a box of popcorn. It'll be my charitable contribution for the week.
Thanks Tim.
If you could make that Extra Butter that would be Great.
Now for the Address.
2 Thackeray Street, Napier South, Napier 4110
Which Ward and would you like some extra benzos on top.
Nah, I'd never do that
TTP
Me neither
TTP
Good to see you and HouseMouse are getting along together.
If we were being honest, once you remove all the posts complaining about the government, housing, and how the systems all corrupt man, the place would be mostly tumbleweeds.
Really you want a place that helps people work out how they're going to navigate their commercial lives, in spite of the economic environment they're living in. That's what I thought it was on first inspection, boy was I wrong.
"Really you want a place that helps people work out how they're going to navigate their commercial lives, in spite of the economic environment they're living in"
Yes please!
So true. Have to sort through a lot echo chamber stuff to get to the rare comments with value. Still worth it though and those posters banging on about the same things while tiresome can sometimes be funny with the back and forth sometimes witty insults.
Did you really expect fact-based conversations from rational contributors having anonymous accounts on a popular online news channel?
You will find trolls, DGMs and snowflakes in every comment section on non-anonymous sites such as LinkedIn.
We live in a strange times where everything is openly politicised because we all love blaming the system for all our own shortcomings.
Вы неправы
Yes, it's very strange. An article stating that timely Stats NZ data is no longer reliable enough to publish with errors up to 85%, and half the comments are about property prices or personal attacks.
Do we need to bring back departure cards to get reliable statistics, or will this resolve in time once we're well past the Covid data shocks?
Who needs cards. We should have near 100% accurate records.
We measure a finite amount of people, all who pass through immigration, and all of them carry some whacked out little book carrying our vitals, that gets scanned and saved.
OIA: What does the Stats NZ Provisional Migration dataset feed into, and what decisions does it inform on things like Urban Planning or provision of core public services.
Because it really seems like that's kind of the story here, not the footnote.
Immigration back to pre-pandemic levels.
Happy days
Interest rates down as wage-price spiral eases.
House prices and rents back up as demand starts to outstrip supply again.
Irish market outcome avoided?
It does feel like JA has been warned what keeping immigration low will mean... but renting to tenants will not pay the mortgage after interest rate deductability is removed in April and higher interest rates....
Nothing can save the housing market from reverting back to positive yields in the new reality... ie a lot lower prices. No one enters an investment expecting to loose money and no one can imagine a bigger idiot will emerge to buy their houses at the current entry point.
Funny turning off immigration was always a NZ First Policy
I’ve been reading articles and comments on this website since the early 2000’s about how the housing market is crashing and it’s never happened.
The reality is NZ is a desirable place with stable govt and as more immigrants arrive it becomes an easier decision for their compatriots back home to also move here.
I see house prices and rents continuing upwards on the trend line they’ve been following since the late 90’s.
Gelboy - That was really slick. More oily than a Greaser.
Now go and get some listings.
Sarc I assume?
You expect house prices to go up more than wages forever?
That's like the abridged version of the Long Walk To Freedom.
The current correction has some time to run, and there are many other factors at play that will cause the correction to level out. When is the key.
Alright, here come more to share the small pool of resources we have already. More price jumps since we don't have enough already.
This is flawed.
Arguably, there's more than enough local resources, and more people in NZ would bring the cost of all the resources we import down, and reduce the cost of the ones we make.
That will work providing many of these immigrants can help in new and existing export driven businesses. We are severely resource constrained though in terms of land use. At what population level is there a balance struck that plays off population with sustainable resource exploitation.
Yet non-tradable inflation has run at the higher end of RBNZ's target range during every boit of high net migration in the last 2 decades.
The overseas 'students' are just a rort on the taxpayer by education providers, including the public ones.
The overseas workers are a boon to low paying employers and a cost to New Zealand.
Exactly, we need more kiwis in low paying jobs.
Anything lower than that, we just get someone poorer overseas to make, and ship it over here.
As there are so many Russian bots here.... Answer me this...
Who blew up of the Nordstream pipeline?
Fulton Hogan ?
Clearly it was not zee Germans
Are you a Russian bot
нет
Whoever has the most to gain from its destruction is the likely culprit.
Must be the UK. Alternatively, another crazy shoot your country in the foot by a Russian.
One pipeline had never become operational, the other depressurised. It's not as though the pipes were going to be used at any time in the next 10 years, considering the decisions in Europe to quit an unreliable supplier?
Europe didn't so much "quit an unreliable supplier" (remember that Russia has been constantly supplying gas to Europe for decades since the days of the Soviet Union) as declare a total economic war against Russia including unilaterally confiscating hundreds of billions of Russian assets and bank reserves.
Oddly, the Europeans cried foul when the Russians started to push back.
When you add in that Europe over the last decade has refused to renew its long term gas supply agreements with Russia and instead decided to rely on the spot market for their gas supply, one could reasonably say that it is the Europeans who are unreliable gas customers.
So much riding on Christmas 2022. Inbound tourism (tourists or kiwis coming home for summer catch up) Retail spend, Hospo and service sector spend.
Will people through caution to the wind and deny the coming recession to spend spend spend. Our keep their powder dry for when S%&T gets real.
These new migrants might be arriving just in time to a job market that dose not need them any more.
Armageddon better hurry up then, only 5 weeks for it to hit the fan.
Santa better bring an economic apocalypse or else.
I've been waiting for five years!
Great comment. It seems our human made systems are more resilient than many would like. A bit like the humans who designed them.
TTP is that you?
Flood gates thrown open again. I assume this time the government has learned it's lesson and is ensuring that first and foremost, infrastructure roles are being filled up as fast as possible, so that we can move the needle towards green on the current infrastructure deficit. And then start building new infrastructure for the target population that the government has set. Right?? RIGHT???
To keep the consumer society going we need to have streams of people coming over here all the time. The huge infrastructure spend on the highways in Auckland and Wellington and the densification plans all point toward this being the plan.
If our population was declining we would need to have quite a different society. Immigration is an alternative to conquest and empire building in a way.
Thanks DC for your honesty.
I enjoy reading all your articles but tend to sceptical when reading the numbers that go/come with them. I'm not sure stats NZ has the where-with-all (people & systems) or the desire (political will) to tell you what's really happening out there. It's the trends that I try to pick up on, & to do that requires a lot more reading than just interest.co sadly.
I do however, appreciate all your efforts.
Is there a published record of total numbers in and numbers out each day. ??
It would be precise.
Should not be to hard. And better than all the guess work about long term entry etc.
As I’ve said a week or so before this has been happening since April/May, the actual number are likely to be more.
This country breathes on immigration.
Other countries such as USA , Canada and Australia are getting influx of people specifically from Europe where things ain’t looking great at the moment.
Public agencies in Nz have a habit of undercooking migration estimates.
From a more global perspective on migration, a recent study said the top 20 major economies are forecasted to face a skill deficit of 85 million workers by 2030. This could be more than offset from a flow of workers out of India, which is on-track to producing 245 million surplus skilled workers.
245 million? That is over one in six. Allowing for elderly and children and women with no education and those who brain was undeveloped because of semi-starvation then it means almost every educated Indian will be skilled. Of course there is a definition of skilled at the INZ which judges junior chefs and managers of small liquor outlets as 'skilled'. If it uses a rational definition of skilled then we need India's education system to take over ours.
You’ve got your concepts all messed up. A skilled person does not have to be formally educated, especially in a country with a gigantic informal economy like India. It is not uncommon for folks to gain decent IT and accountancy skills without earning so much as a school-leaving certificate in their youth. Also, this skill surplus estimate takes into account the high rate of underutilisation of skilled workers that is commonplace in India.
Not your fault though, here in NZ we do equate skills with degrees and diplomas. So we could start by replacing our paper mill education system with one that focuses on teaching skills and making our kids job ready. A small island nation of 5 million people could greatly benefit from a better skilled workforce.
I saw the opposite.
My experience living in Asia is that formal education is valued far more highly than in NZ, where Kiwis - especially older ones - are wont to engage in anti-intellectualism and preference for the "school of hard knocks" or "university of life" and brag "I never went to university". Look no further than regard for MBAs in NZ versus overseas too.
Witness also the staggering array of certifications you'll often find on a CV of someone coming in new from certain countries, as if all possible certifications have been added just in case they're of relevance, and only some of which may be genuinely held.
But I agree that universities should not be in the business of job training, but be primarily research institutions where folk can train and it's difficult to enter and to be seen to have mastered knowledge. And we should invest significantly in that, doubling our public investment in R&D to the point internationally recognised for it becoming an incubator of commercial activity.
The Pretend Tertiary Education (PTE) sector should largely wither, where it's just a rort of migrants.
Sixteen miles in the snow to school each day, up hill in both directions, in bare feet.
Bring back the cocaine in Coca Cola, that's how they did it.
The original backbone of the US productive economy
There goes one of the few distinctions between National and Labor.
Cranking up the ponzie economy again.
Young and talented aspiring FHBs should leave now. The inrush rate will be larger than the rate that we can build houses. Homeless motel dwellers. Get used to it and get prepared for increasing competition for places.
And where do all this income job hunters live ???? here in central otago we have 100+ jobs Vs 3x rental properties ... Qtn wanaka even worse ratio ... and costs to rent etc very expensive ... more people isn't going fix stupid policy
Well clearly they will be staying in the panoply of Air B'n'B's
Airbnb should be clamped down completely. Government could come in here and tax the living bejeesus out of them to make the return on them comparable or less to long term rentals. And encourage the building of more hotels etc in tourist hotspots.
They just chucked GST on them.
And what if people don't want to stay in Hotels anymore.
The immigration minister thought putting high-skilled jobs on a “green list” will do the trick. Never mind the fact that the entire world is after the same skills and have much better pay, career prospects and living standards to offer.
The combination of high cost, low pay, penny-pinching business management and crappy infrastructure that NZ has to offer will attract economic refugees, not top talent.
Before covid we had retail managers on the needed list..... if you went to Sylvia Park before covid there where very few NZ born staff serving.
I have to say that as much as I am a cynic of ultra high rates of immigration, *in general* the levels of service I have experienced from immigrants is typically significantly higher than NZ born kiwis. I find the latter are often slack, lazy and/or rude.
I do not find NZ born Kiwis slack, lazy and/or rude. Indians, Koreans and Filipinos are often better than born Kiwis but the margin is slim. For slack and rude try France, England and sometimes USA.
That’s why I said ‘in general’. I think it’s more commonplace now too because there has been less competition for jobs.
“ I have experienced from immigrants is typically significantly higher than NZ born kiwis. I find the latter are often slack, lazy and/or rude.”
Same can be said about AirNZ and many of their fly attendants. Always received better / friendlier service from other airlines, Emirates, Singapore airline..etc.
That's because they come from countries with a high power gap and a servant class.
Not surprising that our aspiring landed gentry prefer an obsequious servant class, however.
It's all Jacinda & Robertson's fault! Don't post, act! Vote her out in the next coming election!
;)
-7
“Vote her out in the next coming election!”
Trust me even she wants out, she is just dragging it because there is no one else at the moment. She can’t wait to pull the finger and walk out.
If you look at customs arrivals and departures, people are flooding into the country, 30k nett in October, 28k nett 16 days into November, they'll all have to sleep somewhere....
Where do Iook for that number Harvey?
What short memories some people have. It wasn't very long ago when the remuera bbq chat was about keeping NZ " expensive and exclusive" . I seem to recall Winston Peters having some input. Well thats what we've got.
Why the butt photo
If only we had enough rentals to house them and hospitals to heal them.
Great. That will add pressure to rental accommodation and more likely act as a deterrent to employers from increasing wages to match inflation.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.