By Chris Trotter*
Since November 2016, one of the big unknowns of New Zealand politics has been: Could Trumpism happen here? Over the past week in Auckland there have been strong indications that the answer is: Yes, it could. We even have a name. New Zealand’s Donald Trump may turn out to be the independent candidate for the Auckland mayoralty, Leo Molloy.
Molloy’s tactics on the hustings, and their similarity to those employed by Trump in his quest for the Republican nomination, have been commented upon since the mayoral campaign began to pick up speed. His most serious challenger from the right, former Heart of the City boss, Viv Beck, he has dismissed as “Vanilla Viv”. Former Far North District Council Mayor, Wayne Brown, now falling back in the Curia/Ratepayers Alliance poll, is dismissed by Molloy as “The Walking Dead” – subsequently amended to the even more insulting “Shuffling Dead”.
The problem for Molloy’s opponents, as it was for Trump’s, is that these jibes make audiences laugh. Political aspirants on the stump can survive many things, but the derisive laughter of those whose votes they are soliciting is, generally speaking, not one of them. Molloy’s wicked sense of humour and unrestrained tongue are dangerous weapons.
Until last week, however, Molloy’s Trumpian stump tactics have gone unnoticed by all but the most dedicated followers of local government politics. The latest Curia/Ratepayers Alliance poll showed the Labour/Green endorsed Efeso Collins edging ahead of Molloy – a trend which powerfully reinforced the argument of the Auckland Right that the only sensible strategy was for the unserious jokester, Molloy, to withdraw in favour of the moderate and exceedingly serious Viv Beck.
Efeso Collins could be defeated, the Auckland Right insisted, but only if the numerically superior mass of conservative voters were united behind a single viable candidate. Other conservatives suggested that nationwide success for the Right in 2023 was contingent upon it ripping Auckland from the Left’s hands in 2022. The time had come for all those who, in this fatally overcrowded field, could not hope to defeat Collins, to swing their supporters behind Ms Beck – the candidate most favoured by the Communities and Residents group and the National Party.
But the broadcast of “New Zealand Tonight” on the evening of Thursday, 14 July 2022, threw all the sensible plans of the Auckland Right into the air. Comedian Guy Williams had persuaded Molloy to join him on one of his trademark forays into televised journalistic anarchy and questionable taste. The result is generally agreed to have been a gamechanger.
Any normal candidate would have run a mile from such a proposal – rightly fearing the ridicule and humiliation Williams would be straining every comedic muscle to inflict upon his hapless victim. But, Molloy is not a normal candidate. The former jockey, qualified veterinarian, highly successful businessman, restauranteur and philanthropist backed himself to beat his woke young interlocutor into a soft-cocked hat.
What unfolded was a magical moment of gonzo television. Using the sort of language generally confined to male locker-rooms, Molloy soon had Williams hanging on the ropes of his own boxing ring. It was vulgar, disreputable and extremely funny. Between them, Williams and Molloy carved out a decorum -free-zone that threw into sharp relief the po-faced puritanism of the contemporary mainstream news media. Within hours of being released by Television Three, the Williams/Molloy encounter was all over social-media. The usual woke commissars were, unsurprisingly, outraged, but thousands more were delighted.
It was Oscar Wilde who quipped: “The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about.” Molloy’s thinking clearly runs along similar lines. In a single stroke he had transformed an extremely dull mayoral contest into something everybody was talking about. And, as Molloy quipped to Williams: “As long as people are talking about me, I’m winning.”
What his opponents will be fearing is that the sort of bloke (Molloy’s pitch was unashamedly masculinist) who would normally not even bother to open his voting papers when they arrived in the mail, will now be sufficiently motivated to tear open the envelope and triumphantly place a tick beside Molloy’s name.
Will this bloke be highly educated? No. Will he be a member of the Professional-Managerial Class? No. Will he be culturally sensitive? No. Will he have anything much in common with the sort of people who run the Labour Party and the Greens? He will not.
Most likely the bloke who responds positively to the Williams/Molloy encounter will be one of the 63 percent of registered voters who declined to participate in the 2019 Auckland elections. A working-class man who long ago became convinced that the sort of people who control his city have absolutely no idea, and even less interest, in how he, and people like him, feel about the way their city is run. Someone who liked hearing a politician who swears like he does; despises the same people he does; and patently does not give a flying f**k who knows it.
This bloke will cast a vote for Leo Molloy in the same spirit that so many disillusioned American workers cast a vote for Donald Trump: because, if it works, he will have delivered a very forceful one-fingered salute to the Powers That Be.
The $64,000 Question is, of course: “Will it work?” Much depends upon the size of that angry male vote. If the “New Zealand Tonight” segment induces even ten percent of those who abstained from voting in 2019 to back Molloy with their ballot-papers in 2022, then he will be Auckland’s Third mayor. More importantly, if the next Curia/Ratepayers Alliance poll shows him leaping into the lead, then Auckland’s committed right-wing voters will not need to be told to swing their votes in behind him. They will be well aware that if Labour loses Auckland, then its chances of holding the rest of New Zealand are wafer thin.
With that grim prospect in mind, Labour and the Greens must take great care to avoid giving the impression that they consider Molloy and his supporters to be “a basket of deplorables”. They need to understand that the more habitual Labour voters discover about Molloy and the causes he believes in – which will surprise many – the more their kneejerk loyalty to Collins will be tested.
It should not be forgotten that the reason Trump made it across the line in 2016 was because he embraced many of the policies that American workers had for decades been begging the Democratic Party to implement. Owing nothing to the Republican Party grandees, Trump possessed a political flexibility unmatched by former GOP nominees. It is worth recalling that it was not the American Left that nixed NAFTA, but the standard-bearer of the American Right.
Swearing like a trooper, and having no patience whatsoever for wokeness, does not ipso facto make you a fascist. On the contrary, it just might convince a winning number of currently disillusioned Labour voters that, like them, you are simply an unvarnished, straight-talking working-class man – someone worthy of their support.
*Chris Trotter has been writing and commenting professionally about New Zealand politics for more than 30 years. He writes a weekly column for interest.co.nz. His work may also be found at http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com.
75 Comments
Is it not too just about a candidate who has proven ability & record to be able to roll up his or her sleeves and just get on with the basic work on hand, starting in the basement rather than the penthouse. A similar case in Christchurch, where Phil Mauger has taken his contracting knowledge & equipment onto the street, at his cost, to get stalled essential roading work completed. Cannot imagine there is any community in New Zealand that does not what there councils to attend to actually baking the cake before splurging on the thick expensive frilly icing.
Why have all this green hydrogen virtue signalling if not to prove your wokeness?
- Introduce green hydrogen energy for public transport to reduce our dependence on international coal imports and meet emissions targets.
Honestly if he was legit about wanting to reduce emissions, then someone needs to tell him steam trains have not been part of the Auckland public transport network for at least 50 years.
Any normal candidate would have run a mile from such a proposal – rightly fearing the ridicule and humiliation Williams would be straining every comedic muscle to inflict upon his hapless victim.
Nah. Molloy is a close friend of Guy Williams' dad. Williams said on Twitter that Molloy and his dad have been "close mates for years".
The interview was a matey-mate-mate favor. A hand up for Molloy because he was mates with a someone's father. Free publicity in the good old Kiwi "give your mate a favor" tradition.
The problem with Molloy and Trump is that if they think they can call people names, treat others badly just because they don't agree or dislike them, then they tend to empower others to do that too, and the next thing you know is people feeling justified to take the law into their own hands over minor and insignificant slights. Besides whenever people stoop to name calling, I feel it is because they don't have the argument to support their position. Civilised, rational behaviour is often just a thin veneer over the top of pretty ugly, savage attitudes of entitlement.
"Besides whenever people stoop to name calling, I feel it is because they don't have the argument to support their position. Civilised, rational behaviour is often just a thin veneer over the top of pretty ugly, savage attitudes of entitlement."
Have you been listening to Labour, Greens & the Maori parties over the last year ?
Yup. Indeed many in politics routinely demonstrate their sense of self entitlement that they are somehow not accountable to acceptable standards of behaviour. I suggest that our politicians especially should be held to the highest standard, as they, often by their own definitions, are leaders, and a basic leadership standard is behaviour and how others are treated.
People need to be aware of Molloy's record in the racing industry. In August 2020 he was banned for 12 months for abuse and harassment of a Racing Investigator.
Prior to that he was found guilty of sustained abuse and harassment of the then CEO of NZ Thoroughbred Racing, Greg Purcell. Molloy was forced to pay a considerable amount of money to NZTR after a legal battle.
Is this really the sort of person fit to be Mayor of Auckland?
Well, we had a guy that was rooting a lass on the boardroom table (among other places - places that the ratepayer paid for), and he didn't immediately resign. So Molloy calling some investigator bad names really isn't in the same category. The defamation of Purcell is a little different though, but again, not so much as leaving remains on the boardroom table for someone's biscuit.
That is the funny thing about democracy. It is about one thing, and one thing only. Majority rules. Quite simple. The Labour Party hack who has run Auckland for the last few years hasn't exactly set the world on fire, like he was going to as a mustachioed long haired University rebel all those years ago. Yet he has been voted in each election for the last few years. He and his people knew how to get more than 50% of the voters who bothered to vote, to vote for him. If Leo stays the course, roughly 50% of the voters would probably vote his way. Great fun for us non-JAFAs.
There's a big part of me that thinks that age of the politician doesn't matter. What really matters is whether they believe that EVERYONE is entitled to opportunity and a decent living standard. Opportunity is about a chance to get a decent job with a future, and it doesn't matter if you've got a degree or left school with no qualifications. Living standards is about having decent working pay and conditions that are adjusted to the cost of living. Multiple generations of politicians don't seem to understand this fundamental need irrespective of their age. Their ideology takes precedent and it seems to be more about them than the people they supposedly serve.
This is not about right or left wing, but about democracy and everyone in society needing an opportunity to provide for themselves without having to work every hour that god gave them just to get by.
Yes, I'm slightly puzzled at Nationals promotion of more immigration to lower inflation - I haven't seen them explicitly join the dots on this.
Surely increasing demand in times of supply scarcity will increase inflation? Possibly they're intending (but carefully not saying out loud) that lowering wage cost pressures by increasing labour supply is their way forward.
We had a couple of decades of massive immigration from Labour and National that "helped" lift NZ population 25% from 4 to 5M. The result being employers enabled to suppressing wages, salaries, training, development & employment opportunities for NZdrs while demand & turnover grew. Plus house prices etc
I agree with your "deny school leavers" comment murray86, those young will fill all the gaps if they are there. A lot of the job opportunity in many sectors could be filled by locals if the operators had more patience and invested time into potential youngsters. Everyone is in such a hurry to make their enterprise make a profit that they fail to realize one needs loyal workers. The best way to achieve this is to invest time and inject enthusiasm into the work place.
Unfortunately many just have an idea and give very little regard as to who fills the role of the worker.
Leo also wants free public transport. He's the tell-them-what-they-want-to-hear type of candidate, worry about what's actually possible later.
Like the first page on his 'plan'
- reduce rates
- remove the regional fuel level
- increase the subsidy for public transport
- increase the subsidy for parking
- subsidise rubbish collection
So less income, more spending. Oh and he wants to reduce debt too.
It's just magical lala land thinking.
The sort of thing Trump did to wreck the US federal financies, only Auckland doesn't have the worlds reserve currency.
And the money comes from where? Especially after the govt stops chipping in then the Ak Council has to fund the whole of it from somewhere. Rates will skyrocket anyway once the full force of the rail tunnel and associated works, debt cost rises with rising interest rates.
Doesn't he support free public transport?
Is so then he's promoting one of the greenest things one could do. If done, there goes the need for all of the mental roads building.
Except he wants yet another harbour vehicle crossing and the east-west-link motorway, and Mill road, and rail to the airport.
Not a green agenda, a promise everything to everyone agenda. The huge motorway parts of which will will masively increase emissions.
the more woke, PC, deceptive and dismissive the left become, the more attractive someone like Malloy becomes to vote for.
I for one hope he gets the mayoralty and shakes things up a bit.
Im sick of councils forgetting their mandate and selling out their own population. Time for someone to stand up to Wellington and get ourselves out of the over indebted craphole we have gotten ourselves into.
If Malloy gets in it could scuttle the whole 3 waters dabacle.
That line of thought theglc, is exactly what creates a negative society. Instead of voting for a someone with a thoughtful idea, it's just vote for a shake up. Regardless that the candidate has no vision or anything else to offer other than popular criticism of other candidates.
Remember that guy or gal is going to be expected to make rational decisions on our future.
Give me someone with a good ideas that I believe are capable of carrying it through then I will vote for them. Unfortunately I haven't seen one yet and am relegated to voting for the person dislike the least.
Perhaps we should get to vote for ideas instead of people, oh wait if we do that the people in power can simply ignore that.
Candidates need to run on 1 critical issue, focus on that one thing alone and get it done, and then get the eff out. None of this vison of the future BS.
Drinking water.
Power.
A specific roading project or intersection/s upgrade.
Homelessness.
Crime.
The bureaucracy will take care of the rest of the day to day bollocks.
A Labour party stooge? Talk about splitting the right vote!
I wonder if we will get the same thing in the national election. National are currently trying to be both the party of the "not woke" and the party of the "economically conservative" and doing a pretty bad job of both. Will we get a trump like party to take the "not woke" vote? With MMP it might actually be a good idea for National to split into two (or maybe even three with an anti abortion Christian party).
I actually think Molloy has a good chance as I reckon the left wont vote. I have voted for left wing council, but similar to the Labour party they aren't actually getting anything done. We seem to have less cycle infrastructure than almost any other city in the country, we have a fuel tax that doesn't seem to be being used, protectionist planning policies for the rich that live in the centre while suburbia is made high density without the amenities, and conservative rates rises at levels lower than most other cities. Its hard to consider that left wing.
Molloy's opponents are falling into the same trap that Clinton did against Trump. Critiquing "the man not the ball". By focusing on Molloy's personality, Molloy will win every time. What his opponents need to do is hone in on his policies, which he talked too briefly on the NZ Today show.
A massive waterfront stadium - how much will that cost ratepayers? Congestion charging, how much extra will that lump onto commuters? Molloy's questionable business ability?
The more they focus on Molloy's personality, Molloy wins every time.
I haven't watched the video but what does riding horses, jabbing horses and serving (losing i presume) horse burgers have in common with infrastructure spending and social legislation? Sounds like another entitled Ponsonby Boomer.
Anyone can get a viral sound bite these days.
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