The following is sourced from the original here.
Support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition government increased by 6% points to 50% in December – its highest since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power in October 2017.
The increase was driven by support for National rising 5% points to 31.5%, to its highest since March 2020 (37%), while support for Act NZ was up 1% point to a new record high of 18.5%. Support for the Opposition Maori Party fell 2% points to 1% in December.
New Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon took over leadership of National on November 30, 2021 from former leader Judith Collins and today’s result shows that the change is already receiving a positive response from the New Zealand electorate.
In contrast, support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens ‘coalition’ government was down 2.5% points to 44% in December – the lowest combined level of support for the Government since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern took office just over four years ago. Labour support was down 0.5% points to 35.5% and support for the Greens decreased by 2% points to 8.5%.
A small minority of 5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First down 0.5% points to 2%, The Opportunities Party down 0.5% points to 1% and support for the New Conservative Party down 0.5% points to 0.5% in December.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 967 electors during December.
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 6%, up 0.5% points, did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drops 3.5pts to 98 in December – the lowest since Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister over four years ago in late 2017
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped by 3.5pts in December to 98 to be in negative territory for the first time since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to office over four years ago in October 2017.
In December only 42.5% (down 3.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 44.5% (unchanged) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down by 0.6pts to 97.7 is slightly lower than the latest Government Confidence Rating and is now below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 100.1 on January 17-23, 2022 as the highly contagious Omicron variant spread quickly around a re-opened Australia.
Women 18-49 favour Labour/Greens while women 50+ and men (all ages) favour National/Act NZ
Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is strongest amongst younger women aged 18-49 at 59% compared to only 34% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 50+ support is split almost down the middle with National/ Act NZ on 49% just ahead of Labour/ Greens on 48.5%.
The smallest Parliamentary Opposition, the Maori Party, attracts the support of only 1% of women aged 18-49 and 1.5% of women aged 50+.
There is a stark difference for men with support flowing strongly to National/ Act NZ for men of all ages. In December 59.5% of men aged 18-49 supported National/ Act NZ compared to only 37% that supported Labour/ Greens. The difference is even greater for men aged 50+ with 60.5% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to only 31% supporting Labour/ Greens.
There is also a clear age divide amongst men with those aged 18-49 most likely to support Act NZ (30%) ahead of National (28%) and Labour (24.5%). In contrast, for men aged 50+ support for National is at 39.5%, clearly ahead of Labour (27%) and more than double support for Act NZ (19.5%).
The differences in support appear to relate to the ages of the two party leaders with new National Leader Christopher Luxon (aged 51) appealing to men aged 50+ while Act NZ Leader David Seymour (aged 38) has a stronger appeal to younger men aged 18-49.
The Maori Party attracts only 1.5% support from men of all ages.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
| Total | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | ||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Labour | 35.5 | 45.5 | 47 | 43.5 | 25.5 | 24.5 | 27 |
| Greens | 8.5 | 8.5 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 12.5 | 4 |
| Labour / Greens | 44 | 54 | 59 | 48.5 | 34.5 | 37 | 31 |
| National | 31.5 | 30 | 28.5 | 31.5 | 33 | 28 | 39.5 |
| Act NZ | 18.5 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 17.5 | 25.5 | 30 | 19.5 |
| Maori Party | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| National / Act / Maori Party | 51 | 42.5 | 35 | 50.5 | 60 | 59.5 | 60.5 |
| Others | 5 | 3.5 | 6 | 1 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 8.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | |||||||
| Right Direction | 42.5 | 47 | 46 | 48 | 38 | 38.5 | 37 |
| Wrong Direction | 44.5 | 39 | 36 | 42.5 | 50 | 46.5 | 54.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 98 | 108 | 110 | 105.5 | 88 | 92 | 82.5 |
| Can’t say | 13 | 14 | 18 | 9.5 | 12 | 15 | 8.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 108 for Women compared to only 88 for men
The party support trends are confirmed by the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence figures which are more positive for younger women than anyone else. The overall results for the genders show that 47% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 38% of men. In contrast only 39% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to exactly half of men (50%).
Overall, this produces a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 108 for women compared to only 88 for men – a gap of 20 points (same as November 2021).
Nearly half of young women aged 18-49, 46%, say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 36% that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. This produces a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 110 for women aged 18-49.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ is marginally in positive territory at 105.5 while it is clearly in negative territory below the level of 100 for men aged 18-49 (92) and is lowest of all for men aged 50+ (82.5).
New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-21
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – December 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 931.
The full report is here.
38 Comments
Challenging.
You are right that the base don't want the borders to open. They love the hermit kingdom (apart from the savage increases to the cost of living .. but some how that will be the fault of those "National Pigs" as my old boss used to call them)
However, a lot of those who swung across to Labour last election will start heading back to National if Labour don't get things moving.
Middle voters are fickle. Last election, NZ was under no real local restrictions, and the rest of the world was having a miserable time of it (with international travel looking like a thing of the past). As a consequence, Labour was richly rewarded.
Fast forward 18 months, and those same voters are now seeing their friends and family jetting off overseas on holidays, restrictions in places like the UK disappearing faster than you can say "bring the beers to No 10 Downing Street", and Covid hasn't wiped us all out.
Suddenly, they want a piece of that life (not that I blame them).
Anecdotally, those I know who voted Labour last time - and who aren't dyed-in-the-wool Labourites - all fit the mold above. I.e. "Thanks for saving us Jacinda, but now we want to get on with life".
Just like Mr Orr who was forced to raise interest rate, so will Jacinda be forced to remove MIQ.
Only to watch out is :
1 - From 1st March is she opening the border for its citizen without MIQ from Australia and from rest of the world also.
2 - Opening the border first for Australia ( though does not make sense as Australia too has Omicron just like other countries) and from rest of the world for its citizen may delay and could be from 16th March or 1st April.
Above are the only option. MIQ is going.
Whatever she may do, her downfall has started and with the way 2022 and 2023 will panout, nothing will save her and should start preparing for new role in UN.
Her core voter base is about to get the full impact of the Labour covid financial response. High interest rates combined with out of control inflation (OZ is worried about 3.3%, GR was happy with 5.9%) so I hope they got big fat piggy banks, also I hope they not the ones on TV sayign the can't afford the grocery's, you got what you wanted.
BusinessNZ is hosting a webinar with PM, this week, where she is going to outline the Government’s economic priorities for 2022 and plans for reconnecting New Zealanders and New Zealand businesses with the world. It may take a few meetings, however, to decide how the outlines will be filled in, me thinks.
After voting for Labour twice in a row I think it is time for a change. I am doing alright in life but I don’t like the growing inequality in NZ. Labour have disappointed me in their inaction. Luxon seems to be learning from UK compassionate conservatism. Pro business but with a social and environmental conscience. If he is good to his word I will go National. Seymour has peaked and is falling into the trap of populism.
I can't vote Labour...but National only seem to offer the fire to Labour's frying pan. Seems bizarre to think National will do anything other than what they've done previously - especially when their talking points include more fuel on the housing fire.
And what environmental conscience is being demonstrated?
They're more likely to follow the Tories in applying austerity to health as in the last National term.
Lots of headwinds for Labour this year: inflation, interest rate hikes, COVID fatigue/border discontent, PM overexposure, small business closures, forced nationwide mergers, no execution of any practical projects, etc.
Their main constituency now is over-educated city liberals with safe salaries in govt depts, universities, councils, large corporates who can easily work from home & avoid the realities of continuous semi-lockdown.
A growing opposition now against Labour: tradies, SMEs, farmers, antivax/mandates, Maori, beneficiaries/homeless, provincial families, and young travellers.
Check another major goof up by Goverbnment headed by Jacinda Arden :
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-miq-lockout-nz-pensioners-…
Think she has run out of luck.
By the time of next election, she may not even run for third term as writting will be on the wall.
taim.
Jacinda gone by xmas....lotta sad stories out there , not just in OZ either .
Has any Prime minister had so many deaths under there watch , not Covid related , from cancelled surgery's/treatments over the last 2 years + this year . Plus Overseas kiwi suicides never comes up . lnstead of getting the wiggles & sports teams in to NZ maybe a few thousand Nurses/Docs would have been better . Good luck if you need a stent or any Hospital care this year......
Picking between Labour and National? From what I can see they both have near identical propositions.
Prime Minister Ardern has always thrived in a crisis, she'll desperately need one just before the next election. A real crisis as well, not the "climate crisis" or "cost of living crisis".
Except there is not going to be any "Love left for Labour" come 2023 in this story. National and ACT are now in the box seat, the worm has turned. Adern has been the worst PM this country has ever seen, National just need to hold the ship steady and not do anything stupid, Labour's boat has hit an iceberg.
John Key was objectively a far worse Prime Minister than Ardern. During his tenure, just some of the things he oversaw were:
- Massive transfer of taxpayer money to shareholders in SCF
- Closed down SCF when there was no need to, and didn't get value for money for the asset sales.
- Spruiked NZ as a tax evasion haven
- Made noises about the "underclass" then increased the underclass
- Opened the door to migrant exploitation, supported businesses abusing new migrants by underpaying them
- did nothing about long term planning by ensuring that trades training was available to NEETs following Christchurch earthquakes. That policy decision NOT to invest funds into apprenticeships has now shown its worth with the shortage of qualified tradespeople.
- Sold our assets and then gave the money out as tax cuts
- didn't invest in schools, hospitals, or other social services as was the claimed intent following asset sales
- massive transfer of thousands of stated owned houses to the private sector, thereby inflating rents and causing a social housing shortage
- one trick pony in promoting tourism, which as we have now seen was a flash in the pan
- didn't bother improving NZ's capability in any way, shape or form to improve our resilience to external shocks, which Covid is highlighting.
- Sold PPP's as the panacea to NZ's infrastructure woes. Transmission Gully is showing that to be a big lie. If the state had taken control of that massive infrastructure work, the communication and oversight and compliance measures would likely have been much better, and we wouldn't have faced a half a billion dollar budget blowout.
There's way more he did wrong as PM. The best thing he ever did was resign. There's very little good that Key achieved as PM that improved the lot of NZers as a whole. Only a few people gained the benefit of his administration's policies.
In comparison, PM Ardern has overseen:
- increased welfare payments
- a boom in state house construction
- moves to improve the farcical DHB system, and achieve economies of scale. We didn't need 20 levels of duplication across the country in the DHB system.
- has addressed the 3 waters system by recognising that water infrastructure costs can no longer be borne by individual councils so the regional entities should be able to achieve economies of scale in investing in that infrastructure
- has improved the lot of Māori by setting up Māori health authorities, and is generally doing more to achieve the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi. If you're white and racist and think it's separatist, then I suggest you attend a university course that may educate you as to why Māori do feel aggrieved by the actions of the Crown since 1840.
- has also overseen the best public health response to Covid around the world, and overseen a substantial economic response that did not see thousands dying, or losing their jobs. What is happening now re hospitality is a retrenchment. When NZ is not getting twice our population visiting each year, there's no need for a cafe on every corner.
- has taken concrete steps to address the unfairness of residential property speculation. People do not need to own 20 houses. Housing people should not be a business. Shelter is a fundamental component in Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Without shelter, people cannot meaningfully contribute to their communities.
- made the first year of Uni free. This is good. It allows people to try out whether Uni is for them, or even if their chosen vocation is what they want to do long term. Many people change their vocation after the first year of Uni.
- introduced a feebate for electric vehicles. With petrol inching closer to $3/l, this feebate will help the switch to electric vehicles, and somehow improve our carbon emissions. An open question still remains as to the wasted resources that go into an electric vehicle as the batteries are not recyclable.
While there are things that Labour have gotten wrong, there is plenty more they have done right: e.g. the Covid-19 support in 2020 which in hindsight should have had a caveat that any financial assistance should be returned to the government if annual profits had not dropped by say, 20% or more, that support still kept many businesses afloat and people in work. I daresay a National government would not have been so generous, and would have adopted an austerity approach.
The misery this Government has caused for Kiwi's failing to get home to see dying loved ones, good people losing their jobs because of stupid mandates and now talk of extending the "medical passport" to include a 3rd shot. That's it. Will never vote Labour again, my children will never vote Labour and I will make sure my grand children will never vote Labour. Good riddance. Be kind - yea, right
There is nothing Labour can do to right this runaway train.
Since the election Labour’s policies have caused high inflation, high house prices, high rents, high debt, increased poverty, poor planning for MIQ & health system and a poorer education system.
Labour has lied to the public about “no new taxes” & it has no credible plan to increase productivity.
Of interest from the poll is that 60% of men now support National/Act/Maori Party compared to 42.5% women.
Clearly the poll shows Labour’s support has dropped dramatically.
Will mainstream media continue to suppress polling data that is negative for the government or will they realise that they are unlikely to get any more funding from the government & start reporting the real impacts that Labour’s poor policies are having on NZ society?
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