This is a re-post of an article originally published on pundit.co.nz. It is here with permission.
If China’s second largest property developer implodes, the Chinese financial system may be compromised, while the booming property market is so central to the Chinese economy, its staggering would impact internationally, including on New Zealand.
For some time I have had on my to-write list the giant Chinese property company, Evergrande. In that time it has been struggling, as I relate below, but it is still there. One is reminded of Keynes’ remark that ‘The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.’
I could claim to have a reasonable record in predicting previous financial collapses, but this is not a boast because it underlines how little I understood. For instance, my (now defunct) Listener columns tracked the beginnings of the Global Financial Crisis for over a year before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. But I did not understand how subprime lending worked. Ian Cross identified me as one of the two commentators who presaged the 1987 sharemarket crash, but I was observing that the share price-to-earnings ratio was too high and did not realise how corporation profits were grossly overstated, which meant the situation was even worse than I thought.
It was not until the collapse of the giant American energy corporate Enron in 2001 that I realised how creative audited corporate accounts can be. At my school one never associated the accounting students with creativity (off the sporting field), although, coming to think of it, two of my year were convicted of accounting fraud.
The China Evergrande Group is the second largest property developer in China by sales. It has liabilities of over US$300 billion; it says it has assets whose values exceed its liabilities. Their accountants will verify those numbers but in the one case I have seen referred to, others were valuing some of the company’s properties at half what they are in its accounts.
Since last September, Evergrande has repeatedly failed to make several large bond payments to its creditors on time. It has said they were paid late, but not all instances are documented. The total payments are less than US$1 billion which might suggest that the company is facing a cash flow crisis rather than its liabilities exceeding its assets (if you believe the valuations).
However, property developers have to supplement the cash flow from their current sources with borrowings from the financial sector because some of the assets are part-built properties that need cash to be completed. If interest obligations are not paid, those borrowings are likely to dry up. The funds they get from deposits on unbuilt properties will also cease. Property developers also ‘borrow’ – add to their liabilities – by not paying subcontractors and suppliers or issuing them with promises-to-pay (commercial bills) but that option cannot go on indefinitely, especially for new business. A further complication is that a Chinese property company can (sort of) borrow from local authorities many of which, however, are skint. It is a salutary reminder that Chinese financial arrangements may not be the same as the West’s.
Presumably new projects are being put off while ongoing projects are not being completed. It is like what happened in our finance sector a decade ago, except on a grander scale. Evergrande is involved with almost 800 projects in more than 230 cities. To an outsider this is a crash waiting to happen (and there are smaller Chinese property companies in similar financial difficulties); it would crash if this was happening in a Western economy.
The Chinese financial authorities are probably already involved. One factor is that in 2020, in an effort to rein in the highly indebted property-development sector, the Chinese government enacted a ‘three red lines’ rule to regulate the leverage taken on by developers, so that part of Evergrande’s difficulties is trying to meet the tighter debt-to-cash, debt-to-equity, and debt-to-assets metrics. (In the 1970s, a number of financially weak New Zealand companies crashed following a tightening of the regulations.)
The government may well think that the company is too integral to the country’s property sector which, it is said, accounts for about 30 percent of national output; that it is ‘too-big-to-fail’. If a large property company were to crash, subcontractors and suppliers to sound companies would become more hesitant. Moreover, the sector’s intricate relation with local authorities is likely to compromise their already weak finances.
(Evergrande’s main shareholder, Hui Ka Yan – he holds about 60 percent of the shares – has been selling personal assets to fund the interest payments. This may not be a rational thing to do; in similar situations, New Zealand’s property developers cut and run. Perhaps the Chinese Government, less sensitive to private property rights, is twisting Hui’s arm.)
Can the Chinese officials manage a financial crisis? They are probably smart enough but they may not have enough experience or history to handle the complexity. Ben Bernanke, who led the American Federal Reserve through the GFC, was an expert on the Great Depression. On the other hand, the Chinese might contemplate policy options that private-enterprise-dominated America would reject. When in the late nineteenth century a couple of New Zealand banks failed, our response was a partial nationalisation. (As an aside, the Colonial Treasurer, Joseph Ward, who supervised the legislation, proved to be a major debtor of one of the banks and had to resign; that didn’t stop him from twice becoming New Zealand’s Prime Minister – we are a forgiving nation.)
The likelihood then, is there will some disruption to the Chinese financial system and – since it borrows offshore – to the world, although we do not know how big or catastrophic. There is likely to be a major impact on the construction sector, which will dampen the Chinese economy. But we don’t know when or how soon.
That will certainly impact on New Zealand’s export of building and raw material supplies. The size of the impact on New Zealand export food suppliers is more problematic. The Chinese government may take measures to sustain household consumption; in a middle-income country that includes food. Even so, I wish we were not so exposed to the Chinese market including the other major commercial partners which trade extensively with China. We have had a long-term strategy of diversification but it has proved hard to implement.
And there is the even greater political imponderable: the impact of a financial crisis (with people losing their savings) and an economic slowdown (rising unemployment?) on the political leadership. President Xi’s position may be secure but he may have to trim the nation’s direction. I leave others to suggest the possibilities; do not rule out intensified external aggressiveness, using nationalism in order to distract the public from economic hardship.
It looks as though Evergrande is going to remain on my to-write list for some time.
PS. The news flash headline as this goes to press is World’s worst-performing bank lent billions to China Evergrande.
Brian Easton, an independent scholar, is an economist, social statistician, public policy analyst and historian. He was the Listener economic columnist from 1978 to 2014. This is a re-post of an article originally published on pundit.co.nz. It is here with permission.
25 Comments
Accountants & Creativity.
I recall our lecturer first up in Accounting 101.
"Year 1, you will learn 1 +1 = 2.
Year 2, 1 + 1 sometimes = 2.
Year 3, 1+1 = whatever you want it to"
He was so right. And this is how Govt and Council projects, such as stadiums, get approved.
Accountants love farming.
I have a bull and a heifer. I have two animals. (1 + 1 = 2)
They share a paddock for a few days. Somehow, nine months later, I have 3 animals. (1 + 1 = 3)
BUT...
I have a cat and a mouse. (1 + 1 = 2)
They share a room. Next day I only have a cat. Oops. (1 + 1 = 1)
Excellent overview Brian - Chinese systems are so different and as a command economy can do things that are impossible in the west so all we have is limited information so lets look at that. Investment vehicles are very limited in China and property is available and reports suggest 70%+ of Chinese have most of their savings in property - marriage apparently is influenced by the mans property assets. If the second largest developer is in strife whats the position of the largest - Country Garden Estates? I suspect that the CCP know that if the property market collapses and/or citizens lose money on uncompleted or even un started developments social unrest will threaten the CCP. My guess is that the CCP will contrive a situation were individuals are not wiped out but lose money to a level they will accept but even this will change future actions on the savings front . Whatever happens there will be losers and the world will be cautious of lending/investing/trading with China and the global economy will change significantly. On a pessimistic note - should upstream dams on the Yangtse continue collapsing the 3 Gorges dam may be impacted as the rainy season approaches, a collapse would put 400 million Chinese living close to the Yangtse in great danger and the economic devastation of industry & agriculture too great to comprehend.
Are they in the crapper...I think that that question is much wider than just Evergrande.
Taking 100% money up to three years in advance, building essentially unfinished buildings (no fit out and essentially un-tenantable), for the owners to flick onto another owner owner for speculative gain is a bit smelly and only works on a rising market. That they have spent all the upfront money, and not started construction on hundreds of millions of new builds is really bad. Not surprising they have massive cash-flow issues and thus defaulting left and right. Note this problem is not just isolated to Evergrande, they are simply the poster child because of their size.
Add to that the President Xi requesting Western Govt's hold off raising interest rates which would attract international capital elsewhere is quite telling. Can anyone not see rates increasing as Western Govts try to hose down rampant inflation.
Is the popping of the Chinese property dream, and associated defaulting on hundreds of billions in debt a sufficient black swan to shake debt in NZ?
It's on a par with Biden's plea to Pump More Dino Juice to the oil producing nations, after ensuring the local industry is fubarred. Causes merriment amongst observers, gives carte blanche to the targeted entities to delay, raise prices and generally twist the knife, and gives pause to potential investors who rightly wonder if the supplicant has all their marbles....
This is the third time I'm saying it on the internet,
"There will be no Lehman Bros moment in China."
For the same reason they are not letting it happen in New Zealand. Also its a totally different political system and China will want to retain the worlds number one position. A few heads could roll, more literally over there than here and business will carry on as usual.
Re liabilities to assets.
There are examples of Chinese companies leveraging this asset value as security, ie the value of the asset is used as security by multiple lenders, who are unknown to each other that this is happening, giving total liabilities many multiplies above the asset value.
And most of this is off official registers.
I have been watching & waiting for the Chinese property ponzi to collapse for around 8 years I suppose. When I first understood what was actually going on i was disbelieving. Then, over the next year or two, as i read & read more & more articles from a variety of sources, I began to see how the Tier City system was influencing things, & how the CCP were controlling the levers, so then I started drilling down into the big players markets, & was continually astounded that they could even create such a system, let alone keep it up. I've always had a healthy interest in the Chinese culture since passing through there many years ago, so when I added in what i already knew, that on the whole, they were not a very trustworthy lot (sorry David, but true) I knew that sooner or later the whole house of cards would come tumbling down. So, here I sit almost a decade since I'd started following what could be the biggest con-job the world could ever see, still watching & waiting for it to do so. Will I get my wish? Or should I be careful what I wish for? Either way, we are about to find out.
Yes, interesting situation, article, and your comment.
Seems there has been astounding waste and speculation. I've only paid attention recently but it looks like a bunch of ordinary Chinese are taking a big hit. Saw one woman videoing a shop she had stretched to buy in the hope of renting out, which is now in an abandoned street and she has lost everything and can't even sell it.
A foreigner who has lived in China for years says there is a rort of tacking a couple of extra levels on a building before it's demolished to qualify for a little more government compensation. The rubbish they tack up occasionally falls down into the street.
I wonder who will ultimately get blamed and if anyone gets executed.
I suspect that the CCP officials have already decided what to do? Let the air out of the tyres slowly and in a measured way.
Let offshore investors take a hit too. Then, manage the winding down process like an asset stripper would do while at the same time keeping the board members and boss on the hook for the final execution to demonstrate to all that there are limits to the CCP's version of Capitalism. It is and will be regulated.
In the end, whats of value will be sold off or become State equity to prop up the local regional council loan books.
The rest will vanish into the ether.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.