By Peter Hurley and Melinda Hildebrandt*
International students are heading to Canada, the UK and the US in record numbers despite the pandemic, new research by the Mitchell Institute at Victoria University shows. But Australia and New Zealand continue to experience a dramatic drop in new international students.
Our report, Student, interrupted: international education and the pandemic, examined five major destinations for international students: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US.
We found the first waves of the pandemic caused a large fall in new international students. But countries that have opened to international students have rebounded strongly.
The research reveals a complex situation where the pandemic affected international students from around the world differently.
The numbers of new students from China are still below what they were pre-pandemic. But for some source countries, such as India and Nigeria, numbers are at record levels.
International education is an important part of how many countries manage investment in their education sector. The report highlights the renewed emphasis countries are placing on attracting international students.
A fall for all and a rebound for some
Our report examined student visa data to understand the impact of the pandemic on prospective international students. Student visa data are a leading indicator, as most students normally need a visa before they can enrol.
The chart below shows the total numbers of new student visas each country granted in the 12 months to September in each year from 2018 to 2021. The pandemic resulted in new student numbers falling in all countries. But some have been more affected than others.
The UK has recovered the strongest. Its number of new international students is at record levels – 38% higher than pre-COVID.
Annual data can obscure the disruption caused by the pandemic. This is because countries applied different levels of restrictions throughout 2020 and 2021, altering normal enrolment patterns.
The chart below uses quarterly data to explore changes throughout 2020 and 2021. The September 2019 quarter is equal to 100 on the index used for the chart. Using seasonally adjusted data makes it possible to explore changes while controlling for peaks and troughs that usually occur throughout the year.
This chart shows the depth of falls in new student visas issued in 2020 after the pandemic began. Australia, New Zealand, the UK and the US experienced falls greater than 80%. By the September 2021 quarter, Canada, the UK and the US had rebounded to record levels for the available data on student visas.
This could be good news for countries like Australia and New Zealand, which have lost students to other countries. The quick return to an upwards trend in Canada, the UK and the US suggests there is pent-up demand from students waiting for borders to open. If so, new international students should enrol in larger numbers when travel to Australia and New Zealand becomes more possible.
What has been the impact by source country?
Events in students' home countries will also influence decisions during a pandemic.
Our research looked at the impact of the pandemic on new international students by their country of origin.
The table below shows the changes in the number of new student visas for the largest source countries.
Nigeria has rebounded the strongest, driven largely by an increase in Nigerian students studying in the UK.
New international students from India have also increased by about 27% compared to pre-pandemic levels. Behind this increase lie shifts in student choice.
The number of Indian international students going to Australia fell by 62% in the 12 months to September 2021 compared to 2019. In contrast, new Indian international students to the UK more than doubled, jumping by 174%.
India has overtaken China as the largest source country of international students.
What are the policy implications?
Analysis of international education can be a numbers game with discussion focusing on shifts in enrolments and the economic contribution of international students. But there are important policy implications.
For instance, there has been much debate about the influence of geopolitical tensions on international student choice. Our research suggests the reduction in Chinese international students is more likely due to administrative obstacles and travel restrictions.
International students also contribute greatly to total investment in education sectors. In Australia, fees from international students provide about 27% of total university revenue. Losing international students can have a big impact on education institutions, especially universities.
In a post-pandemic environment, governments are seeking to grow and foster their international education sectors.
In the US, the Biden administration announced a “renewed commitment to international education” in July 2021. The UK government is aiming for a 75% increase in the value of international education by 2030.
While the pandemic has had a massive impact on international education, the scene is set for a return to a highly competitive global market.
Peter Hurley, Policy Fellow, Mitchell Institute, Victoria University and Melinda Hildebrandt, Policy Fellow, Mitchell Institute, Victoria University. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
25 Comments
International students flocked to our Mickey Mouse ‘colleges’ to do dubious business, food and English courses in the hope of getting residency. Many of the colleges had overseas owners and employed recent immigrants as staff. Many had/have extremely dubious compliance and assessment. I do have some firsthand knowledge of this, and it is quite shocking. There is a case to be made for international students at secondary school and the major universities, but not at residency-focused so-called international colleges. The fees earned often go back to foreign owners, and the long term liability to NZ in terms of health, welfare, housing and superannuation hugely outweighs the benefit of having another fast food worker or liquor shop attendant.
Does it matter as only economy in NZ - Housing is booming. Only when it starts to effect the housing will we consider opening up - are we correct Jacinda and that day is not far away. After exhausting current resources to pump ponzi, will have took elsewhere and international student is in that list.
Foreign education was only 4 billion of GDP and 32,000 jobs. The government has umm... "created" more that 10x that figure in GDP by debt financed PCR tests quarantine hotels and handouts to beneficiaries. Yay!
Nice of Jacinda to keep up the flow of international students up nice and high to other countries by shutting borders to fully vaccinated healthy students.
Now we have school roles dropping and teachers leaving schools as they dont have enough funds to operate the services / staff they had.
How can we make it harder, oh yeah, lets open up April 1 fools day, so we got no students for 2022 as the first 8 weeks of the school year are banned. Most of these are gone and wont come back.
Say goodbye to a multi billion dollar industry for NZ.
Where these students pay our schools about 14k per year to study here, enrich our culture, and also pay about 15k to homestay providers.
Who needs industries such as International Students / Gas / Farmers etc when you can live and run the country on kindness and borrowing and money printing billions of dollars instead.
Now we have school roles dropping and teachers leaving schools as they dont have enough funds to operate the services / staff they had.
I'm told that we have a shortage of teachers(at the salary being offered) in this country. They shouldn't have a problem finding other schools to teach at.
Where these students pay our schools about 14k per year to study here, enrich our culture, and also pay about 15k to homestay providers.
Enrich our culture. Drive our ubers, attend our service stations, staff our liquor stores...
You are not allowed to talk about anything other than how well NZ has done with it's low Covid-19 death rate! That has been the focus of the people who have control. How could you suggest risking people's lives with Covid-19. You must ignore all other metrics, and please get vaccinated for the third or fourth time.
These low grade commercial education facilities are just a rort selling access into NZ . How much of the money just goes back overseas. Some of the Polytech courses are not much better. When we have Kiwis living in tents and motels we do not need any overseas students in NZ.
The implicit assumption in this article seems to be that mass international education is a good thing.
Questionable.
It's only potentially had merit by virtue of lack of government funding into education. If education was sufficiently funded, we wouldn't need the mass international education.
Just another neoliberal work around.
As everyone knows the main reason foreigners pick schools/universities on our shores is for the pathway to residency. Of the different forms of immigration, it's one of the better ones in my opinion as it provides a great opportunity to learn (language if nothing else), and to mix with other NZ students.
But like any form of immigration we need to be careful of the numbers. Low student intake for 2020 to 2022 will flow through into the number of permanent residents a few years down the track when they would have got their qualifications. Not the worst thing given the housing and infrastructure issues we're facing at the moment.
Chinese students probably don't want to come to Australia and New Zealand because China itself was explicitly blamed by Australia to have caused the Wuflu. Albeit some people distrusting the CCP, they have been indoctrinated with their teachings all throughout their school years so it makes Chinese citizens EXTREMELY patriotic to their country and the slightest criticism will instill anger and trigger them. With Australia openly calling out and pointing the finger at China at causing the Wuflu and requesting to launch an international investigation into origins of COVID is enough for Chinese people to rule against them and go elsewhere.
Distrust of Australia and Australians is portrayed by Chinese media on a regular basis along with trade sanctions for goods with stopping of Australian coal, wine and agricultural exports. It's hard to get any certainty when you're in China and planning a future in Australia when there's continued roadblocks being put up. The last thing for a Chinese parent wants is the Chinese govenrment to sanction/ ban transfer of money out to pay student fees and accommodation costs for their kids when they're in foreign enemy territory. NZ isn't really on the map when it comes to these things however, it's close enough to Australia for me to go "Nah, I'll go somewhere else."
Nigeria has rebounded the strongest, driven largely by an increase in Nigerian students studying in the UK.
New international students from India have also increased by about 27% compared to pre-pandemic levels. Behind this increase lie shifts in student choice.
Geez, you don’t think this has anything to do with it, do you?
You don’t need to be sponsored by an employer to be eligible for the visa, so you don’t need to already have a job when you apply. There are also no restrictions on the kind of job you can do during these 2 years, and no minimum salary requirements.
A lot of emus with their heads in the sand on the subjects of education, immigration, and all things financial.
This immigration conversation will be largely irrelevant in a generation or two. Latest statistics show that by 2026 the ratio of Polynesian children under 12 years old will be 63%. I would assume that some years after 2026 Polynesian parties will increasingly dominate parliament and may have a completely different outlook on such matters as the distribution of wealth, housing, taxation and other current bones of contention.
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