Fewer people think house prices will keep rising, even though more believe that interest rates will stay low, according to ASB's Housing Confidence Survey for the three months to October.
Of the survey's 2786 respondents, a net 26% expected house prices to increase, down from 38% in the July survey.
The decline in price rise expectations came even though there were also fewer people who expected interest rates to rise, with that figure dropping to a net 26% from 33% in July.
Expectations of rising house prices were least prevalent in Auckland where a net 15% of respondents expected them to increase, and in Canterbury where a net 19% expected an increase.
"The trend was reflected across all broad regions and reinforces ASB Economics' view that house price growth across much of New Zealand has peaked," ASB said in its survey commentary.
ASB said people's mortgage rate expectations had probably been driven by recent falls for most mortgage terms and by uncertainty around when the Reserve Bank will begin to raise interest rates.
"Both these developments are likely to be shaping respondents' interest rate expectations," ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said.
"Bank competition also appears to have increased over this timeframe," he said.
So with fewer people expecting prices to rise and more expecting interest rates to remain low, it was probably not surprising that the number of people who thought it was a good time to buy a house was also on the up, with a net -4% thinking it's a good time to buy.
"Respondents came within a whisker of the majority thinking it's a good time to buy, - this is significant as pessimists have outweighed optimists in this survey for over five years," Tuffley said.
Here is ASB's full survey report:
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119 Comments
Indeed. If Tauranga does indeed reach a steadily declining Sydney, then the flood of educated your to Sydney for better employment opportunities will simply accelerate. Its ok, NZ tax payers can continue to pay accommodation supplement to those that remain in the highly paid region of BOP.
"Yes, with the market being flat buyers have pretty good bargaining power at the moment"
I agree with you here, if you are buying in this market (especially in Akld where inventories are bursting at the seams) you can go in with real lowball offers, if it doesnt workout, there are plenty more fish in the sea....
BEWARE NZ
https://youtu.be/hMZxl2YIkrc
Sulphurs in Chinese drywall board
Like the poor Chinese made polybutylene pipe National allowed in that was sold through trademe years ago and which was
never tested or approved in NZ which the quality NZ polybutylene pipe is tested
What a disaster! Thanks for sharing. I'll add both to the long list of things to be weary of. Even the NZ approved polybutylene pipe seems to fail after about 20 years, I shudder to think how the cheap Chinese stuff will fare. I wish people would just use PEX or copper pipe, and NZ made drywall, NZ made bricks, treated timber. It's not that hard to do things properly.
Fact-one: It's now cheaper to rent; https://www.interest.co.nz/property/rent-or-buy
Fact two: The global situation is looking increasingly skewed towards another debt crisis. FHB's have considerable time to save.
Agent TTP and BLSH, sorry, your party preparations for the fantasy recovery of 2021, are pointless. Just like many Auckland vendors who are slow to realize their houses are worth less, many more are slow to realize that the NZ market really could tank big time.
Agent TTP, since you likened Auckland to Sydney as being equally an international city on the way up. What you got to say now Sydney's heading down???????
Agent TTP, thats complete rubbish. At last count there were 35,000 Auckland homes classed as vacant (6.6%). That's more than Sydney (5.2%) Gather your facts FIRST!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11…
It's always a shortage on the way up, as vendors begin to offload, a surplus on the way down. Currently, just like Sydney, Auckland has a SURPLUS of overpriced homes.
It's hardly rocket science to figure out how precarious the situation is. But of course, you're an Agent.
Hi Crash-Crusader,
There are many houses kept vacant in Auckland because that happens to be the owner’s (prudent) choice.......
The owner lives elsewhere, doesn’t want tenants - and doesn’t want to sell. These houses are often held as a longer term investment - a stake in the future.
Note that this is not a new phenomenon - but it does contribute to Auckland’s chronic property shortage (which is well-documented).
TTP
Agent TTP, well done. All you've done is profiled a speculator who's mood towards real estate could easily change. Of course the owner lives elsewhere, the house is EMPTY - DUH.
Once again, you offer no insight as to how Auckland's current house prices are sustainable. Sydney (only 3-1/2 hours away) is getting cheaper by the day. Latest forecasts, are for a -20% decline.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/18/australians-told…
...only humiliated Agent/s will spin the figures upwards in this property specific market. Houses with most on offer, considerable investment made and tastefully renovated are selling well in this buyers market. There are many vendors unable to sell in this market that has an increasing dropout rate, ever increasing listings and persistently dismall clearance rates.
It's worth noticing that your rising house prices story in the regions is now drawing to a close as the buyers market spreads to the regions.
"you reckon we have a chronic shortage and its now a Buyers market??"
You've hit the nail on the head!!!
There are no shortage of properties for sale in Auckland!!!
The inventories are already appox 1000 higher than the peak last summer, and sales were very low volume last summer so it wasnt like they were clearing the inventories.
Looks like a rush for the exits before the inevitable price downturn
Peoples perception of our housing crisis is that we don't have enough buildings to house people, when in fact its perhaps been more about a game of musical chairs where the wealthy have been scrambling to find places to hide their capital where they pay minimal taxes.
If you are aware of the planned expansions in Hamilton, you would come to that conclusion here. I have thought this place is in grave danger of overshoot for a long time, just wondering how dialled in some of these new subdivisions are, and there are several of them and they are big, especially Peacockes which expands Hamilton further out toward the airport. Without continuing high immigration, I would say a lot of this development will be very much surplus to requirements. Bit of a rock and hard place situation, as we have come to rely, far too heavily, on more and more people needing more and more land cut to bits and concreted over. I think it is a crying shame
With Auckland’s population currently rising by 900 people each week (yes - you read that correctly) the accommodation shortage is destined to continue for a very long time.
Talk of a “glut” is a mix of idle chatter & wishful thinking. Certainly, it doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.
TTP
And pretty much every pensioner that moves to a retirement village or retires to the regions frees up a 2 or 3 bedroom home in Auckland that soaks up 3 or more of those arrivals. And there are a lot moving out of Auckland. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/105191977/auckland-nzs-most-leaveable-…
That's inflow, not net.
A significant proportion of that inflow will be student or low skilled immigrants who will place little pressure on any of Auckland's housing beyond cbd slums or south auckland homestays.
But let the 'housing shortage' untruths continue. It will only worsen the fall away in prices as it helps promote overbuild.
So you disagree with MBIE (45,000 shortfall), RBNZ (40,000 - 55,000 shortfall) and most other experts on the matter?
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2017-12/Housing%20and%2…
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2018-02/A%20Stocktake%2…
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/92379/new-reserve-bank-paper-puts-e…
BLSH, the following articles were published in March and April 2018 and still Sydney house prices are falling. Oh-yes, of course, Auckland is different ;-)
Sydney struggling to house record number of migrants after NSW population grows by 123k; https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/sydney-nsw/sydney-strugglin…
Sydneys current housing affordability crisis here; https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/apr/09/housing-incentives-fail-…
Looks like both yourself and Agent TTP are a right couple of Nanas.
The cost of renting a mortgage from the bank, rates, maintainence etc is far higher than the cost of renting a place to live, and then you stash the money you have saved in an investment that earns you money. Later on once the costs of buying relative to renting have dropped you have a nice fat deposit to buy and reduce the rent you pay to the bank for their money. Its not rocket science.
Had you not sold, what would your weekly mortgage payments be today on that place you had in the early 2000s? It'll be much lower than the rent you'd pay for it today. Renting is only cheaper in the short term, and the longer you leave it the worse off you are, its not rocket science.
I did pick up on it. But now you’ve gone and ruined it by responding. Couldn’t resist could ya..
Consider my comments to you to be rhetorical, intended to point out your intellectual missteps and shortcomings of logic, rather than to elicit a response. This way you avoid embarrassing yourself further, whilst hopefully learning something.
You’re not my hobby. More of a charity I’d say. My advice is pro bono, I trust you are taking notes.
Better ideologically blinded like clueless PropertyPrices2Fall than ideologically dangerous like yourself. You want to tax my bicycle based on the imputed (imaginary) income I am earning from it, and steal my pension despite the fact that I am paying for Retired-Poppy’s as we speak and am contributing to the super fund. Good grief.
Edit: Don’t respond if you concede.
I was just looking at the numbers as reported. There is a rather high chance that they are going to run out of buyers, as predicted by a bunch of people..
"Chris Glaudel, the deputy director of non-profit lobby Community Housing Aotearoa, said KiwiBuild would bring on a much needed supply of new homes but there would still be many households that couldn't afford to buy one.
These families needed a different pathway to buying a home based on the size of their income rather than market prices.
Such pathways included rent to buy home ownership schemes and housing developments that allowed families to live in affordable rentals so they can save more money for a deposit, he said."
"CoreLogic's Goodall also cautioned that while the new data appeared to show first home buyers were willing to pay higher prices than the value of KiwiBuild homes, there had only been 2132 sales this year.
This indicated there may be many other first home buyers out there who cannot afford to buy in Auckland, he said."
etc.
Here you go from that very article... don't cherry pick.. open your eyes and mind....
The low number of pre-qualified buyers might simply be a sign that the KiwiBuild developments so far are not in the areas first-home buyers are hoping to find houses.
There's been South Auckland, apartments in Onehunga, a Te Kauwhata development billed as "near Auckland" and Wanaka.
The pre-qualification process only lasts six months, so people might wait until they wanted to put in an offer before being signed off.
Dunno what article you are looking at, certainly not the one I was quoting from. They have forgotten Otahuhu and Mt Albert apartments btw.
I'd really suggest they don't hang round waiting for kiwibuild to provide places in Epsom, Takapuna or Kohimarama, cos it just won't happen.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/108537270/government-risks-lack-of-kiw…
https://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/setting-record-straight-kiwibuild-scheme
The second last paragraph might be of interest, that hopefully the price starts to drop over time once the process is in full gear.. lets not forget the destruction caused by the national government to the housing market... its never easy to just scale back what was done over the last 5 or 6 years
gloat over it...
You are using Twyford as your source for "massive interest in kiwibuild"?
He's a bloody politician, in charge of kiwibuild. It's like believing a RE agent when he tells you now is a good time to buy. (It's always a good time for you to buy.. for them)
And if they keep signing kiwibuild houses up at today's prices how are prices going to drop? Govt is agreeing prices on today's market for off the plans builds. So when those builds are done in 18months they will be selling at today's pricing. That is exactly why the govt needs to stop committing to more kiwibuild until they sell the ones they have already signed up.
Engage your brain..., Stop swallowing the propaganda.
Feature request. Can the forum support the ability to block/hide a selected individuals posts. Finding this interest.co has changed from a place where varying perspectives are shared (and supported by interesting evidence), to just being full of blatant self interest posts with no attempt to support ones augment with anything useful. In short troll central.
RE Agency boss: "This way please TTP, step into my office. Its time we had a chat about your lack of performance"
Agent TTP: "What have I done now Sir?"
RE Agency boss: "I've given this considerable thought. These "DGM's" you've complained about ever since we employed you in March 2017, I think you should treat them with a lot more respect"
Agent TTP: "What the hell Sir?"
RE Agency boss: "These "DGM's" are tomorrow's cashed up buyers. I mean, who else is there waiting at the bottom?"
Agent TTP: "I hadn't thought of it that way Sir"
RE Agency boss: "And another thing, it's time you stopped promising a house price recovery in 2021. If we don't deliver on this, it only invites further disrepute"
Agent TTP: "Oh-OK Sir, I will try and make a good agency ambassador. It won't be easy because the DGM's think I'm an idiot"
Yvil, a bit of a childish observation (don't you think)? Anyway, the ones who are in retreat are easily spotted. Their faces glow bright red when they can't produce sound facts on demand. At the risk of becoming red faced yourself, please feel free to produce some facts that will mitigate the coming Global Debt Crisis and how Auckland, or in fact the rest of our great country, will be immune from its effects. Also, please explain in detail how Auckland/NZ will be insulated from the Australian property slump and resulting tighter credit conditions.
Are you red faced?
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7244-roy-morgan-image-of-professions-…
That one is Australian, but the NZ ones are pretty similar. Used cars salespeople, real estate agents, advertising salespeople at the bottom of the list. Widely considered to be some of the least ethical industries. And from having formerly having family in the industry and therefore meeting quite a few, and hearing the office gossip, its not unjustified IMO.
Of course it is a great time to buy property investment!
It is always a great time, providing you are buying with your brain rather than your heart.
Interest rates are going to be low for a helluva long time, which “The Man” has been saying for years and of course is correct.
It is actually cheaper to own a home rather than renting in many parts of Nz, but don’t tell the tenants, as many of them don’t realise!,,
TM2, tenants are smart savvy people, many unknowingly. Speculandlords, unknowingly-not. https://www.interest.co.nz/property/rent-or-buy
So would any REs explain why house prices will go up now? Immigration isnt higher than before with the same so called "housing shortage"and "pent up demand", foreign buyers mostly out of the equation, what will make the house prices go up again short of making a wish to a genie in a bottle?
here goes
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/the-economy/ghost-cities-50-m…
At some point their government will further restrict the capitals outflow to prevent their own RE market from collapsing.
Yes the market has been flat in Auckland but I'm still expecting the plunges they are now getting in Sydney and Melbourne, possibly up to 30% over a few years. It's still very unaffordable in world terms in NZ. Yeah blah blah reasons it's different this time and it's not a bubble...
This time is different to when? Which NZ property "bubble" do you believe this "bubble" is the same as?1975? 2009? Do you think the economic landscape is the same now as it was then?
Since records began, property prices in NZ have risen steadily, with some peaks and troughs along the way. It is actually you lot that claim "this time is different" and the long run trend is now about to reverse.
BuyLowSellHigh, I was talking wider than NZ. Seems likely the countries that missed the property crashes during the GFC have just delayed it: Australia, Canada, NZ and others. No we didn't go through a property crash like Ireland and Spain during the GFC, yet. Take a close look at what's happening in Sydney and Melbourne right now though. Not long ago economists and analysts were predicting no decline, then -4-6%, now -15-20%, I'd say it's going to be at least -30. If you think that's not going to spread here you're dreamin mate.
maybe you should check the data, you can download from stats nz
there was 47 billion wiped off the value of the NZ housing stock straight after the GFC.
many investors went bust that were over leveraged and got the phone call
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/key-graphs/key-graph-house-price-va…
the most interesting stat is the number of years it takes for the housing stock to double in valve is increasing from 4 years in 79-83 to now 13 years ,2005- 2018
that would be mostly a consequence of the low wage growth in NZ
so on that plane the next doubling could take i estimate around 15-18 years
Mar-08 615.8 2.7
Jun-08 591.6 -4.5
Sep-08 581.5 -6.7
Dec-08 568.3 -8.9
Mar-09 568.2 -9.1
Jun-09 578.0 -3.1
Doubling in 15--18 yrs sounds about right, but it could be really uneven. Could decline quite a lot and then be back to where we are now in a decade or so, and then double in the next 7 years after that (10% per year compounding). It could get messy this time. We'll have to see!
BLSH - you ever looked at US house prices adjusted for inflation?
http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2011/07/housing-prices-inflati…
http://www.alliancereamgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/History-of-…
Hi BLSH,
Yes - it’s a reasonably common view. And one that I share for the foreseeable future.
At the earliest, I don’t see any major uplift in the Auckland market prior to 2021 - as I’ve stated here many times.
But, for sure, an uplift will come. And the astute are positioning themselves for it now.
TTP
Agent TTP and BLSH, the astute are preparing their finances for the coming global debt crunch although, I can truly understand how you don't know this. Also, I'm still waiting for your facts on how this debt crunch will be avoided. I've asked several times now.
We are heavily reliant on the continued prosperity of China whose citizens are to thank for roughly 22% of houses being classed as currently vacant. Taiwan @ 14.2%, US @ 12.7% and Japan @ 13.5% follow close behind.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-08/a-fifth-of-china-s-h…
Do you dreamers still wish to remain silent about how New Zealand together with our major trading partners have bet it all on the house?
Count me in, its going to be flat for another couple of years. The only correction could come from a sharp upswing in interest rates, at which point all the DGM's here will be jumping for joy but of course if house prices come down but interest rates go up you no better off.
GENUINE QUESTION FOR INVESTORS
Evening to all the property investors.
Genuinely interested in your views on this question.
My work is linked to the development sector. I'm working with some parties and we reckon we can deliver new 3 bedroom townhouses in mid value Auckland suburbs for circa $700-750K.
My question for the investors out there is, on the basis of an estimated rental income of $750 pw, or a gross yield of $38,000 per annum - a gross return of 5.0 - 5.5% - would you consider buying?
These would be circa 90 square metres townhouses, attached, one car park.
Interested in your views, as I think there is a buyer's market for this product, but not yet convinced there is an investors market (I think there is, but not 100%)
Long John Martin
Your comment spot-on.Increasing trend in NZ to list auction prices achieved where its above GV.
Could we assume the converse- where the prices are omitted ( & these numbers continue to spike upwards), then the price achieved must be dismally low & below GV???
Not good for the agents' image ,eh!!!
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