The Government’s plans to build 10,000 new homes as part of its Mt Roskill redevelopment in Auckland will almost certainly increase densification and result in more state houses and KiwiBuild homes being built in neighbouring suburbs such as Hillsborough, Three Kings, Balmoral, Sandringham, Wesley and New Windsor.
The Mt Roskill plan involves replacing about 3,000 existing state houses with around 10,000 new homes that will be a mix of state houses, KiwiBuild homes and homes sold on the open market.
Work is already underway to replace about 440 state houses in Roskill South and Owairaka with 1600 new homes comprising 520 new state houses, and 1080 other homes that will be a mix of KiwiBuild properties and homes sold on the open market.
Although the entire project is known as the Mt Roskill development, the remaining 8400 new homes will be developed on land owned by Housing New Zealand which is spread well beyond Mt Roskill, and includes all of the state housing in neighbouring suburbs such as Balmoral and Sandringham to the north, Three Kings and Hillsborough to the east, Waikowhai to the south and Wesley, New Windsor and Owairaka to the west (refer map below).
The 8400 new homes will replace about 2570 existing Housing NZ homes spread throughout those suburbs.
The new homes will be a mix of new state houses, KiwiBuild homes and homes sold onto the open market, although at this stage it is not known how many will be built in each suburb and what the mix of new homes will be in each suburb.
But because the 10,000 new homes to be built overall will replace about 3,000 existing homes, it means on average, 3.2 new homes will be built for every existing state house that’s replaced, potentially leading to a significant increase in housing and population density in the affected suburbs.
That could also encourage more private developers to undertake more intensive housing developments in those areas which could have a snowball effect, changing the character of those suburbs over time.
The proposed light rail line between the CBD and the airport bisects the affected suburbs (see map), which could also increase the attractiveness of more intensive developments in the area.
School rolls in the area are also likely to be swollen by an influx of young people in their family forming years attracted by more than 2400 KiwiBuild homes that are planned for the suburbs.
The greater intensification and higher population will also have significant impacts for commercial property owners in the area, such as the St Lukes mall which is located on the outer northern edge of the redevelopment zone, and properties in local shopping centres such as Mt Albert, Sandringham, Balmoral and Three Kings.
However it won’t happen overnight.
The entire project is estimated to take 10-15 years to complete.
76 Comments
TM2
Would I be right is guessing that you're not a fan of kiwibuild?
To be honest I'm not a fan either, as I think that the prices will be artificially high when compared to how cheap everything else is going to get during the build programs - hopefully the government will be sensible enough to re-price them down as subsequent developments look expensive relative to the adjusting secondary market.
They're called Auckland refugees, and it's a real thing - in 2016 the number of NZ born Aucklanders who left to go other parts of the country was greater than the number of births in Auckland, the total amount of population increase was due to overseas migration.
https://croakingcassandra.com/2018/05/02/new-zealanders-leaving-aucklan…
Personally I'd rather live in a leaky farm cottage in Gore than one of those dog kennels, but maybe that's just me.
However, the trend of outward migration of kiwis from Auckland is nothing new, it's been happening since the 1990s.
Following rapid urbanisation in the 1950s, net internal migration gains for Auckland were relatively high. Between 1976 and 1981, there was a net intercensal gain of about 17,000 (Table 2). The net gain through
internal migration has steadily declined however, and Auckland has been losing population to internal migration since the late 1990s. International migration has become the predominant driver of differential population growth for the city. By the early 21st century, the net internal migration loss was similar to the level of gain 30 years earlier. There is little empirical evidence as to whether these net internal losses have been
driven by the increased level of international migration to Auckland. This can be implied however, as analysis of the age structure of these internal movements show that there are net gains in the age cohorts from 15 to 30 but loss in the older cohorts - which can be attributed to lifestyle choices within these older cohorts, partly related to lower house prices outside of Auckland (Friesen, 2003).
https://www.population.org.nz/app/uploads/2013/06/NZPR-Vol-38_Friesen.p…
Sorry TM2 but Chch isn't doing so well. Jobs. It comes down to jobs. Several software companies have collapsed in the last few years in chch. I know of a couple building companies that have slashed their output by two thirds in the last year. The companies manufacturing building materials have also slashed output. All of this will drive people away from chch.
Property wise 'tis the season of for lease navidad in the CBD for office space. Residential rents are going nowhere and neither are house prices. Banks have clamped down on new lending.
The artists impression looks quite nice. But at the end of the day you're crammed into small spaces next to noisy neighbours. It's no good for mental health.
The root of the problem is population increase globally. NZ should not be the overflow waste pipe for the third world's birth control problems. We have to send them back folks.
I don't think anywhere in Auckland will fit into the latter category. There will still be plenty of parks and beaches etc. Mt Roskill for example is only 3km from the beach; get on your push bike, enjoy the fresh air, then jump on the light rail and do one of the many things on offer in Auckland City. Sounds much better to me than living in a car dependent boring town where everyone sits at home watching TV all night. But each to their own I guess.
Greg Ninness - I have noticed you have Real Estate Agents advertising on your website in the past ! I have also noticed some of your headings in the last few days pointed out by Nic Johnson in concern to the possible spin in favour of , well lets say only blue skies ahead. I cant help but wonder if there could be a need from interest.co.nz to keep some certain people happy. Please dont delete this post, or delete my account, im only asking .
I have responded to this commenter offline. But the implication that we are beholden in some way to the real estate industry is plain wrong. Frankly its an insult we don't deserve. And obviously, we aren't censoring anyone (except where our comment standards are breached) and that includes advertisers. It is very shallow to suggest any advertiser can influence any professional journalist. And to be fair to advertisers, in my tenure here, no-one has ever tried - yes, never. Advertising is booked through third parties and we rarely speak to them about their campaigns. Misunderstanding how all this works is probably the basis of unwarranted conspiracy theories.
Having been named in the comment above I would also like to say that I too have never doubted the integrity of interest.co.nz.
I have questioned numbers and occasionally the language used to describe the numbers but never the integrity of Mr Chaston and the team at interest. The independence of the site is the reason we are all here.
Your independence is a great credit David. I guess I share the commenter's concerns about my local paper being mainly a promotional vehicle for the real estate sector (industry doesn't seem quite appropriate, building industry yes, real estate sales service sector, I suppose). Keep up the good work. Hopefully you're not thin skinned like I am.
What the real estate industry need to do is get more professional. A good agent should know the market well enough put a price on something. The reason the market is floundering at present is that neither the agents or the sellers and buyers have a clue where the market should be today, hence the abysmal clearance rates and number of withdrawn properties. If it was more transparent then people know where things are. Put a price on the house, if it hasn't sold in 6 weeks, it's overpriced so knock 10% off it.. further lack of interest after another 6 weeks then reduce a further 10%. That's the only way they'll be able to educate the market during the downturn. More transparency and less bullshit.
Probably not, best to stuck to your guns if you know what its worth. Took 6 weeks to sell mine and could have done so in 5 weeks but waited another week and got another 12%. Reality is most people are in no rush to sell and what has happened in the past is that the prices just increase to what your asking for it if your prepared to wait.You have be patient and find the right buyer, its not all about the price.
but you've been selling! Very Interesting. Double GZ has turned and now you as well.
For those that are selling, Carlos67's advice is completely wrong in a falling market, the longer you are on the market, the more stale your house becomes and the greater the eventual losses. When a market rebases lower buyers get very concerned about houses that they think will be difficult to sell in the future so mispricing can have very costly consequences as you chase the market down.
Auckland.
I forgot to add earlier that I really admire that you had the courage to ask the direct question, just as much as I admire David's response to that question and his integrity. Generally there is not enough questioning happening in modern day New Zealand and it is something that needs to change because the businesses that run the Country, let's not pretend it's the government because it isn't, have too loud a voice in shaping policy for themselves rather than the populous. The tax working groups recent and probable U-Turn on a capital gains tax of sorts is a clear indication of this... In my opinion there are areas within the economy where a capital gains tax is necessary because the working classes appear to be subsidising the tax benefits of the capital/debt holding classes.
Well done for asking the question in a sensible and non-offensive manner. As for a change in headlines today, I may be responsible for stirring the pot a bit too vigorously over the weekend on that (but the tone has definitely changed towards reality) and I regret that I was a bit obtuse and not more direct. I doth my cap Sir!
Nic
Nic Johnson - Thanks for your reply. I was once a sports instructor in an American summer camp. We were told never to accept any money from the Parents of the kids, this was because in the heat of the moment of choosing who you will give favour to it would always seem to go to little Johnny whose daddy gave the instructor the $100 note to look after his Son. We are all just Human Beings . Its very important to set up your company in a way that is very transparent with no room for suspicion. I just wish that David from Interest.co.nz would display his emails and mine for all to see. I will leave this in there court to choose. I still stand my ground that if interest.co.nz is receiving advertising money from Real Estate Agents then they cannot truly call themselves independent .
Hi Auckland
I may have been your only ticks today which in my view is wrong as we should be able to question where our information is coming from without being judged as outsiders.
I actually think it's a classic catch-22. Media needs advertising to survive or a very, very healthy number of subscribers. A lot of the data that we all love on interest.co.nz comes from the real estate industry, I still question the withdrawal rate on Auckland Listings from barfoot and Thompson this year and I still and I believe the banks are too influential too....however some of the data we get here would take hours of manpower to research if there wasn't a direct channel from a sponsor or source to interest. Our job as commentators is to question the numbers and challenge where necessary, remembering that our skin is not in the business of interest itself..
The reality of the market is that even if interest.co.nz were to give a figure that was required from each commentator annually (to replace the cash from the sponsors), it would probably then need to be doubled when the advertisers withdrew the access to the data that was previously given in the sponsorship deal. In my opinion this site is the most transparent financial site I've ever come across and I've lived in the UK, US, Australia and a couple of countries in Europe. I probably need to become a patron myself, and I will, because I'd like to preserve the integrity of the forum, which is as good as the news itself and your voice is as important as the next man's
Nic
Hi Nic Johnson - You do have some good points, but as I have pointed out to interest.co.nz , there are many products out there to use for advertising to raise money for there website. They need to keep it clean and leave out the agents or it will be viewed as a conflict of interest, (excuse the pun) . If they have to go down this road to finance themselves then they are still being controlled by money. It reminds me of the mainstream church in the way it has adopted a new doctrine requiring the people to give 10% of there gross income, and once the pastors are challenged on there theology and they can see the error of there ways they all seem to say the same thing - " If we now change what we are saying then how will we pay for the mortgage on the building." It was set up wrong from the start and now they feel trapped. If Interest.co.nz and the mainstream church had real faith then it would not need to control where the money comes from.
More people trying to live in the same small city means everybody gets less space to move about in, thats just physics for ya.
If housing prices in Auckland kept going up, existing residents would have been disadvantaged by all the teachers saying stuff-that, i'm moving to a town where I can afford housing, or to a job that pays better.
And no doubt this means schools will have to get larger, which with land prices at a premium probably means building upwards, rather than outwards.
It is what it is.
I was more thinking of avoiding honour killings, acid attacks and women with bare arms getting spat at in the street, grooming gangs, knife crime and the like. The UK seems to have rather gone down hill since I left many years ago. On our recent visit my wife was surprised to find that men dressed in traditional muslim clothes never gave way to a woman on the pavement, contrary to our normal custom.
Far from it. I think the reason there was never any widespread backlash about immigration was a largely unstated and very deep sense of gratitude to the nations of the world that fought on Britain's side in the Second World War. These things are very long lasting and extremely powerful. The Polish pilots are still remembered, as are the Gurkhas and the Sikhs, it's not just the Kiwis, Aussies and Canadians (and the US, but that's more complex). By and large there was very little friction, but I was surprised at the extent of white flight from the cities to the villages.
Sadly the UK will never recover from its immigration experiment.
It's full up and large parts of it are decaying at a rapid rate. All to prop up the housing debt and the pace of population growth went exponential from 2009, they think that near 4 million people moved to UK since then. A good friend of mine has just sold an apartment in London to move to the Midlands. There are 5 other 2 bedroom apartments in his converted block. 15 years ago when he moved there, the block was inhabited by 2 other singletons and three couples. (9 people in 6 apartments). He thinks that there were over 20 residents of the 5 apartments when he left this Summer. He said it was always dirty in the communal areas, always noisy and only two or three of his 20-'odd' neighbours could hold a conversation in English.
England has been going down hill since 1974 when we left. What I find is really sad is that we are not learning from their mistakes over 40 years later.Still its no different for the rich and famous over there in the country, still got their horses and wizz about in their Ferrari, they just avoid going to certain parts of the country like the Plague. Its all relative to your standing in life.
It would be interesting to see how long this immigration charade goes on. Some economists at Auckland Council cluelessly cite, on social media, that the population boom and resulting infrastructure deficit in the city is "comparable" to those at other growing economic hubs such as San Francisco and Seattle.
I fail to see how Auckland compares to what those other cities have to offer. The influx of highly talented individuals into those tech cities results in creation of intellectual property and high-value services which the world benefits from; whereas Auckland is a city where the influx of immigrants is creating the need for yet more immigration due to the displacement of locals and the demand for low-value services.
The mainstay economic activity of Auckland city is to bring more people from less-fortunate countries and allow them to scramble for the few resources and amenities that the city has to offer.
Good luck. The majority of those 3000 existing state tenants will see themselves as having tenure in their 3 bedroom house on 600 - 800 m2 section 5km from the CBD. That they currently renting for $100 a week. They will not make it easy for anyone to take that away from them. Even a Labour government.
And ultimately they will be reminded that the govt owns the property, and they have no claim on it. And those properties are around 1/4 acre, so ~1000m2. Hence why you can get a 3 to 1 increase of house numbers.
But yes, no doubt i'll have to drive through the Sue Bradford types protesting sometime in the near future as I drive past the Mt Roskill site on my way to work everyday.
I agree. But look at the speed and efficiency of the Tamaki regeneration. Not. And that was done under a National government. I expect the sensitivity in dealing with existing tenants that will be demanded on this project will ensure that the speed of this development will be enough to convince the majority of onlookers that it is actually travelling backwards.
*shrug* I've been driving past it everyday for the last 9ish months, I have seen the progress, its steady, another couple of houses demolished and drainage/site works underway in the last couple of months, and I've seen lots of trucks heading down to the heart of the development (which is just off my travel route) where they have just finished off a bunch of new state houses.
You can wave the blue flag all you want, i'll trust my eyeballs.
I honestly would love all Kiwis to be able to own their own home if they deserve it?
I firmly don’t beleive that someone who provides very little to the country should be able to own a home over hardworking People who deserve it more from the country.
Twyford has been going on about this KiwiBuild for the past year and there has not been a single home built due to his efforts, that wasn’t already in the pipeline.
The Unitec development was a National idea and it is impossible to build anything liveable and saleable in the numbers that Mr Twyford states.
Unfortunately this government is totally incompetent and you have got blinkers on if u can not see that.
Not their fault it is just that they haven’t got the necessary skills or experience!
The KiwiBuilds at McLennan are an insult to people that have a decent deposit and can afford to service a loan.
They are not spacious, they are not good value for what you are getting miles from Auckland.
Yes they will sell them but let’s just see how many of these boxes are built and bought by the average Kiwi?
You can call me what you want, negative, opinionated and I will take that with a grain of salt.
Reality is though that I will always tell it the way it is, rather than many that don’t and just go with the flow!
I cannot believe how mean and callous you are The Boy. We are a low paying economy. Not everyone is born with the same amount of grey matter. Many people suffer from mental ill health and physical disabilities. On the face of it many of them give little to the country but I believe we as a society have a duty to help them and provide shelter and other necessities of life. Who will decide who is deserving or not? Hopefully not you and people of your ilk. I presume no kiwi build homes will be constructed in Christchurch as you do not need them. Your housing is so cheap and getting cheaper by the year as inflation eats into it. The problem is no one wants to shift down there and for obvious reasons. Get a lot less angry and a lot more happier in life in general and you might enjoy it more. Think more about people and less about money. This comment today is getting up there with your extremely stupid comment about Jacinda not disclosing during the election that she was pregnant. She is currently proving you wrong as she leads a government that is making life a lot easier for those people you despise.
I tend to see the reverse in my clients, they put everything of themselves into their job because they face physical disabilities and have a better understanding in the value in having work. Not only that they are a benefit to the local community and far more likely to support others when they can because they tend to have a higher ethical and moral feeling of responsibility and empathy to others. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/weekend-australian-magazine/mind-… Bill Moss of Macquarie Bank who had a nasty form of FSHD muscular dystrophy, (although Duchenne's is the worst with many dying before they see 30). Yet he had shown that his value when given the work opportunities that others do not get was worth millions. So he went and created an FSHD org to fund groundbreaking research and assistance for other sufferers as no government would see them as worth the effort. In essence to this day it is through him that many people with FSHD have found hope. In NZ people with developed FSHD would be lucky to find any work at all. If only all disability sufferers could benefit from access to higher education & a pathway to work that does not discriminate against their physical disabilities. Why not in finance & management roles? Why can't most financial managers have disabilities, rates of corruption and fraud would likely drop.
This is a large increase in population for this area, where are new schools, hospital and Police station to go with the new "ghettobuild"?
The tram rail is going to congest Dominion road to Third World conditions and be a disaster at great expense.
Will the tenants stand their ground and not move out when previous govt tried exactly same thing and get a sob story in the Herald?
While I'm no fan of NZ's rapid population growth, if we must have population growth (as successive Govts seem to want) then surely this is better than ticky-tack smothering more productive land. And "Third World"??? Yeah, the tram would be better underground and the buildings would be better as high-rises. Heck, Singapore packs 'em in much more densely and it makes Alkd look "third world".
Interesting article on more dense cities in Europe here: https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/03/density-european-cities-maps/55550…
This is a large increase in population for this area, where are new schools, hospital and Police station to go with the new "ghettobuild"?
The tram rail is going to congest Dominion road to Third World conditions and be a disaster at great expense.
Will the tenants stand their ground and not move out when previous govt tried exactly same thing and get a sob story in the Herald?
Congestion is a first world problem. The best cities realise that more and more roads won't fix it and build the likes of light rail.
Yes cars on Dominion road may be more congested - although I'm not sure why you say that as it is currently only one traffic lane anyway. But the 'Tram' can move many times more people than the road can so the capacity will be significantly higher. It will be quicker to get a 'Tram' into town than it currently is to drive.
Hong Kong and China do well with putting 100-150 spacious apartments in 20-30 story blocks on ~ 1 hectare of land with enough parking for all and additional storage in the basement underneath. I've been to a few and they have pretty good sense of space with good views (better than being submerged in high density 2-level kiwibuild Favelas).
The high density works well for having lots of other facilites on site like pools, gyms, creches, kindies, schools, doctors, cafes, restaurants and bars, and with ground level mostly left car-free it is a great environment for pedestrians, bikes and kids.
That would be a great way of addressing Auckland's woes, close to the heart of the city at sites like Unitec with minimal wider disruption. The only problem is you have to keep out unemployed/welfare dependant state house types as they are more prone to vandalism and threatening people in the shared communal spaces.
I love this theory that any form of density must be third world or a slum. Ask any oldie in NZ and they will assure you that this is a fact.
Yet so many of the best and most prosperous cities in the world are high density. And we have so many low density slums right here in good old NZ and around the world.
I'm sure there will always be plenty of low density areas left for those that choose that lifestyle. I'm not sure why so many see this is a threat?
It is a threat because it implies more people, something the world absolutely, utterly does not need, in fact the world needs much, much fewer of us in order for it to come out the other side of our machinations in a reasonably healthy state. Cramming more people in suggests the exact opposite is planned for. We need to planning for things to be going in the other direction.
Waste of time telling the truth on Interest.co as there are too many that feel sorry for themselves.
I am going to take a break from posting which I am sure most of the lefties on here will appreciate.
Gordon, you can debate with yourself.
I have lost interest in trying to tell,it the way it is, and we are away overseas for several weeks, next week.
No Gordon, it is not Oz.
Trump territory and Canada.
I will read the comments but yes you have got rid of “The Man” for awhile.
My wife says that I am wasting my time anyway with most of the ones that are on here anyway!
You are missing the point. TM2 is just doing what the buffoons in charge and their followers enable. As a businessman he identifies the opportunities created by the incentives in front of him. Yes, he perhaps overstates his case from time to time, but he is doing exactly what society wants him to do, as expressed in those incentives. He really is not to blame if those incentives are stupid and perverse.
truth
truːθ/
noun
noun: truth
the quality or state of being true.
"he had to accept the truth of her accusation"
synonyms: veracity, truthfulness, verity, sincerity, candour, honesty, genuineness; More
gospel, gospel truth;
accuracy, correctness, rightness, validity, factualness, factuality, authenticity;
informaldinkum oil
"he doubted the truth of her last statement"
antonyms: dishonesty, falsity
that which is true or in accordance with fact or reality.
OPINION
opinion
əˈpɪnjən/
noun
noun: opinion; plural noun: opinions
1.
a view or judgement formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge.
"that, in my opinion, is right"
synonyms: belief, judgement, thought(s), school of thought, thinking, way of thinking, mind, point of view, view, viewpoint, outlook, angle, slant, side, attitude, stance, perspective, position, standpoint; More
Rather underwhelming. 8400(low estimate) to 9400 high, replacing 3000 existing. That's barely 3 for 1. Even a regular sole builder could fit 4 on a full size site. With the large scale land plots HousingNZ have available i'd expect to see much greater density, and designed cohesively so that despite the density, there is more green space and better outlooks than you get with standard infill.
30000 new homes would be a better goal. For a central suburb with good motorway connections, on a future rapid transit route , and currently a very very good bus service, we should not be building standalone housing.
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