Property Institute survey shows strong support for new govt's housing policies

Property

Most people think house prices will decline or stay the same over the next 6 months and the new government will have a positive impact on the housing market

28th Nov 17, 5:14pm by Greg Ninness

The new government's housing policies are proving popular with the public, according to a Property Institute survey.

The survey was carried out by market research company Curia on behalf of the Property Institute between 30 October and 14 November, and asked more than 900 people whether they thought the new [Labour-led] coalition government would have a positive or negative impact on the housing market.

Forty nine per cent said they thought it would have a positive impact while just 24% thought there would be a negative impact.

The new government got the highest approval rating in Christchurch, where 67% thought it would have a positive impact on the housing market, followed by people in provincial cities (55%), Wellington (52%), rural localities (47%) provincial towns (44%) and Auckland (42%).

Auckland was also the place with the highest number of people who thought the new government's impact on housing would be negative, at 33%.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, 75% of Labour supporters thought the new government's impact would be positive, followed by Greens supporters (72%), NZ First (68%), and undecideds (48%).

Only 21% of National supporters thought there would be a positive impact on the housing market from the new government.

The survey also showed that a substantial majority of people are not expecting house price to rise in the next six months, with 46% expecting them to remain the same, 25% expecting them to decrease and 18% expecting them to increase.

Wellingtonians were the most optimistic about house prices with 26% expecting them to increase in the next six months, while 24% thought they would decrease and 45% thought they would remain the same.

Those in rural communities were the most pessimistic about house prices, with 31% expecting them to decrease over the next six months while 49% expected them to stay the same and only 11% expected them to increase.

Here is the full summary of the survey results:

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24 Comments

by unaha-closp | 28th Nov 17, 5:34pm 1511843675

Auckland was also the place with the highest number of people who thought the new government's impact on housing would be negative, at 33%.

We have had Labour running Auckland Council for 8 years.

by Yankiwi | 29th Nov 17, 4:17am 1511882257

When truth doesn't fit the narrative.

by NorthernLights | 28th Nov 17, 6:00pm 1511845242

I just hope Auckland is given back most of the tax revenues the government keeps How can the countries biggest population base support itself when it has always been used as a cash cow to fund things like South Island roads hardly a soul uses apart from milk tankers that don’t require billiard table roads
Perhaps farmers should support
Oh I’m wasting my time

by bender | 28th Nov 17, 6:31pm 1511847064

South Island would be much better off if the two islands went their separate ways.

by kiwimm | 28th Nov 17, 6:59pm 1511848781

It’s actually the other way round. Road taxes collected in Chch are used to fund Akl projects. Think Brendon has the actual numbers on this somewhere.

by Brendon | 29th Nov 17, 1:18am 1511871487

Peter Nunns from Transport blog reported transport spending from 2002/03 to 2011/12, which showed that Canterbury was paying for roads in the North Island -Wellington and Auckland in particular. There is a nice chart illustrating this point.
https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2015/03/06/mots-review-of-capital-sp…

"A few things jump out from the chart. The first is that NZTA’s spent slightly more than it raised from fuel taxes, road user charges, and other sources. The second is that there are some big disparities between revenue and expenditure in some regions. In particular: Auckland and Wellington are getting about 20–25% more in NZTA expenditure than they pay in revenue, while Canterbury is getting only slightly more than half as much expenditure as it pays in revenue"

So being a Cantabrian petrol taxpayer I would like some thanks from the North for our generous contributions over a long period to their transport wellbeing : )

by waymad | 28th Nov 17, 7:24pm 1511850288

Hope is not a strategy.....

by Squishy | 28th Nov 17, 7:45pm 1511851505

Would expectations not substantially change if the LVR restrictions where removed and a wave of demand was released into the market?

by Yvil | 28th Nov 17, 7:48pm 1511851693

So the survey found that 49% of respondents thought the new government would have a positive impact on the housing market and 24% thought it would have a negative impact, that's 73%. What did the missing 27% think ?

by blue meanie | 28th Nov 17, 8:02pm 1511852575

They thoughtt Yvil, that you still owe Blue Meanie a six pack of Trappist Beer! That’s what they thought... :)

by gingerninja | 28th Nov 17, 7:48pm 1511851703

Sentiment really is turning.

by J.C. | 29th Nov 17, 1:26am 1511871968

Poll designed by David Farrar with poor q'aire design. For example, what is a "positive impact" and what is a "negative impact" relative to the housing market? For example, some people might see rising house prices as "positive" while others might see rising house prices as "negative." The research doesn't differentiate between either.

The most interesting learning from the research is the high proportion of "stay the same", which is a de facto answer for the sheeple to answer "I don't know."

by Eco Bird | 28th Nov 17, 8:31pm 1511854272

EXACTLY !! well spoted and said

by Zachary Smith | 28th Nov 17, 8:10pm 1511853035

73% of Aucklanders think that property prices will rise, stay the same or just don't know.

by J.C. | 28th Nov 17, 8:47pm 1511855271

More accurately "73% of people who live in Auckland who are contactable by landline during the poll". More importantly, 79% don't think, don't know or refuse to say if house prices will rise.

by Robert Redford | 28th Nov 17, 8:22pm 1511853750

If you buy a house thinking only 6 months ahead then why buy? Most people would buy a house to keep for at least 5 to 10 years minimum.

by J.C. | 28th Nov 17, 8:47pm 1511855238

Irrelevant. What the sheeple think about house prices in the next 6 months is not necessarily a reflection of their behavior.

by Eco Bird | 28th Nov 17, 9:23pm 1511857381

I can say with confidence that the amount of the orchestrated reports and surveys dished out bashing and talking down the housing market is an attempt to influence market sentiments to Help with whatever this Gov will legally fail to do or accomplish in this portfolio !! ...

I am certain that the Gov knows that what they have to do has a limited direct effect and lots of side effects .... Failure of making a sizable dent in the market will expose all the empty promises they came up with so far along with their spin machine. And with that they run the risk of destroying a big portion of the economy and maintain fewer friendships.
KiwiBuild 100,000 homes will be a fiasco and glam star dust and lip sticks are already out there to dress up that Pig ... Spinning has already started before the get go ...the blame game never stops .... all other policies have either became useless and pre-empted by the market according to PT ( like foreign buyers) and others will need ( careful design) like negative gearing, and healthy homes in 5 years ...so all in all the Labour Housing policies is JUST show business !! Everytime PT slips a detail or two out during an interview makes me feel that he's not telling us the truth about plans, numbers and real costs ....and he is still campaigning with generic slogans and pitiful and pathetic sympathy for FHBs and the Homeless..... The Housing Stocktake Panel is a representative sample of a team of irrelevant people ( introduced to us with a HISS and a ROAR) trying to solve the most complicated economic problem we ever had. Dont they have or can't they use officials in the ministry to do that ??

Labour keeps telling us that Nat have sold so many state houses and replaced very few ... and that's it - very selective and effective propaganda suitable for just the sheeples !! .... No one explains what these are.... if these houses are livable at all ?, comply with H&S laws or insulated ?, P- contaminated ( most definitely are) ?, or Uneconomical to repair ?? ... they wonder why there are streets full of empty state houses which no one would buy, develop, or touch not even HNZ ?? ..... I am looking forward to see what Labour is going to do with these apart from claiming all the credit of the Northcote development Project for themselves ( which Nats started and they opposed it) , again as per PT !! .. and I am looking forward to see how HNZ will be transformed to a "World Class Landlord" !!

Then we shall all have a feeling of what Positive and Negative effects really are !!

by J.C. | 29th Nov 17, 1:25am 1511871942

Nope. Farrar is a fan boy and propaganda funnel for the Tories. He wears his blue underwear over his jeans. If you're fishing for reactions, you lost it in the first few lines.

Anyway, it's a poor research design, whatever Farrar was trying to do.

by john wheeler | 28th Nov 17, 9:51pm 1511859096

Auckland house prices have crashed 200k since march.
What more can I say .

by swapacrate | 29th Nov 17, 2:03am 1511874236

How can that be, I only thought property prices went up.

by Robert Redford | 28th Nov 17, 10:36pm 1511861783

It takes 9 months to have a baby so looking 6 months ahead to buy a house is a stupid question to ask?

A couple moves in to a house "hay darling our 6 months are up now lets move all the furniture and get the hell out of here."

by Chatter66 | 1st Dec 17, 9:23am 1512073415

Labour claim that property gap in Auckland is about 40k, this is absolutely bullshit as 30% of houses are owned by multiple property owners.

by Pragmatist | 12th Jan 18, 9:45am 1515703541

What does the ownership have to do with how many homes are available for people to live in?

(gah, why does the comment stream keep showing me month old posts???)