It was a disastrous week at the main Auckland apartment auctions, with not a single property selling under the hammer.
The week kicked off at City Sales auction room where just a single one bedroom unit in a new development on Scotia Place was on offer, but it was passed in without receiving any bids.
Next up was Barfoot & Thompson's main apartment auction where there was also just one unit on offer, a two bedroom penthouse unit in the Queens Lodge complex in Newmarket.
About half a dozen potential buyers turned up at the auction and there was at least one phone bidder.
But although there were multiple bids for the property, it was a drawn out affair as the bids slowly inched up and none was high enough to meet the reserve and it was passed in.
Things looked a bit more promising up at Ray White City Apartments' auction where seven properties were on offer, a good crowd of potential buyers turned up and there were also several phone bidders on the line.
However the bidding was mostly lukewarm, with just two of the properties attracting multiple bids, three of them attracting just a single bid and two receiving no bids at all.
And in spite of the best efforts of the auctioneer and salespeople to try and bring potential buyers and vendors together on price, by the end of the auction all seven properties had been passed in.
That meant there was not a single property sold under the hammer at any of the main Auckland apartment auctions this week.
As auctioneer Ted Ingram remarked at the Ray White City Apartments auctions, "There's a little bit of gap between where the buyers are and where the sellers are."
You can check out the results of these and other auctions held throughout te country on our Residential Auction Results page.
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174 Comments
Happening already with houses on the North Shore. With a pitiful "success" rate at yesterday's Barfoot North Shore auction with just 1 out of 13 properties sold, prices are now being listed for the properties that didn't sell - and anyone making an offer will surely put in an offer well below the asking price. I wondered whether prices would fall fast but with auction sales rates plummeting and sellers eager to offload their properties, I can see a sharp and fast fall, especially when it comes to investment grade properties that shot up to levels far beyond that which they ever should have reached.
More important than which street is which city
I think it is Auckland
Who was the prime driver of Auckland ( & other cities in the world ) price increases ?
The Chinese
What do you think will happen to the market when the Chinese cash out ?
Won’t matter what street Zach
You yourself said you had a neighbour from Beijing & I sold up to a nice Chinese gentleman
Watch what the Chinese do locally now and you will know where the market is heading
Where is the NZ media investigative journalism on this ?
Or are you all forced to listen to oddball Hosking or Leighton Smith still ?
it shows that if the politicians say the "right " but not politically correct things , the message gets across
Donald Trumps anti-mexico illegal immigration rhetoric has led to a drop of 30% in illegal border crossings without laying a single brick , his message is clear , you are not welcome
Peters anti - foreign buyer , anti -immigration, anti -everything rhetoric clearly has the same effect
Whether thats good or bad for NZ , only time will tell , but at least my children will likely get a fair crack at owning a home one day
Not just MX people unwelcome either
Even a white kiwi female professor was turned away by Trump’s new racist regime governing the border
For people Here who perhaps are unaware it is mostly MXns that carry out the hard work in agriculture and construction. When living in TX we nearly always used MX carpenters who were allowed to work because they did a fantastic job at a fraction of the price. Trump is all bull He has over 1000H1B visa foreign workers in his businesses. Americans would love to get a job but are bypassed for the easily manipulated migrant workers
Sounding familiar ? Why Zachs young daughter got bypassed at McDonalds too I’m guessing.
Yeah it's not a bad town, has everything you need. We bought only a 5 minute walk from the train station, takes 1 hour and a half to travel to Petone. The carriages are 90's airline cabin style, so reasonably comfortable seating and there's dual power outlets for every set of seats with fold down trays on most carriages so work can be done if one desires. I usually sleep :)
One of my workmates has been holding out for a "fair price" for almost 9 months.. he wants to bail to Australia, but twice he's gone to Auction and been passed in. Lifestyle block out south. Now he's admitting if he got the same offer he turned down 7 months ago he'd jump at it. And he realises if the exchange rate keeps dropping he's going to arrive in Australia with quarter of a million less to buy a house over there than he would have if he'd taken that original offer.
Change of government, regional fuel tax, exchange rate on the slippery slide. TWI down 3.9% since 19/10/17 (the day David Chaston recorded the benchmarks) http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1710/S00777/nz-dollar-falls-to-18-mont… .
Tell him he's screwed.
Key called .65c v USD as the goldilocks point......
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=114…
UK economy post Brexit can provide some guidance. Export industries take years to respond to lowered exchanger rates with increased production/sales. Agriculture can't increase production much in response to better prices. Short term it bumps inflation up due to higher priced imports, which will tend to push up interest rates, mortgage rates and scare or screw a few mortgage holders as well as killing off some consumer spending with flow on effects to economy and unemployment. Higher inflation generally has negative impact on the economy.
Hard to see how business confidence is going to do anything but dive with new govt policies (increased wages and 70's style industrial relations policies, higher taxes and nothing to increase productivity, housing bubble ended so reduced consumer confidence and spending), so pretty good chance of recession in 2018. But don't blame the new govt, Winston said it wouldn't be his fault if there was a recession.
So mostly it is damaging in the short term, and slowly produces benefits over longer term, provided your productive workforce doesn't leave for better pay overseas.
The reason why the GBP dropped so heavily is because it indicated it was going to leave the biggest trading block in the world. You know Britain being the financial capital of Europe and all, it was kind of a thing.
NZ changing from national to labour will not send the same shivers down the currency traders' spines.
I don't know what you are smoking but it probably shouldn't be decriminalised. The NZ dollar drops a few percent and the sky is falling it seems for some. Dairy farmers will have more NZ $ in their pockets. The Brexit referendum lead the the pound dropping to a 31 year low against other currencies in 2016, the NZ$ change recently has been unremarkable.
We will see, but I don't share your optimism, looking at how NZD has dropped since the announcement of the govt, and continues to do so suggests that traders are indeed looking at new govt and judging that they are going to screw the NZ economy. Feel free to bet against them if you know better.
https://www.anz.co.nz/personal/migrants-travel-foreign-exchange/fx/exch…
Traders aren't trading the NZ dollar based on NZs economic prospects, they are trading based on charts/ what they think other traders are going to do in the short term. Many trading the NZ dollar, probably couldn't even find NZ on a map. They are trading the news, not voting on the expected efficacy of Labour's economic policies.
Interesting, the same period after the last election the currency dropped 3.5% vs the USD, this time it dropped 6.7%.
That last bear market in that election year - 2014 was part of a 40% drop in the NZD value against the USD. I can't remember anyone blaming the continuation of the National government for that fall.
I would suggest that the politics is a small part of the picture. It might be a catalyst for an already looming correction, but it doesn't affect the fundamentals much at all in the longer term.
Iceland, had an export and tourism driven boom after the Icelandic krona fell post GFC. Met an Icelandic ED doctor, he said things were going well and no major dramas after initial ructions. Remember they gave 2 fingers to UK and Dutch depositors in failed Icelandic banks, initial right wing government was going to step in cover the deposits re: National and South Canterbury Finance.
I would say Labour could not do a lot worse than National, with their static per capita GDP figure of the last 1-2 years. Minimum wage lift, should drive productivity as businesses stream line processes and automate. Under National there was minimal productivity growth as you could pay a foreign student $8 an hour via some creative employment packaging.
No I don’t. I started working in a dealing room a few months after the dollar floated in 1985 and saw the impacts of movements both ways, some extreme. It’s not pretty watching markets gap and damage the associated industries. Ultimately, a reasonably stable level both exporters and importers can live with is the goal. Whether it’s 0.60, 0.65,or 0.80 is of no consequence to me. Our economy has dealt with all of those levels in the past and survived.
As for chartists, I agree. They’ll be watching support levels and trends to see what they can either follow and/or ambush followers on. Based on what I saw in dealing rooms, both types will lose long term.
Yeah, his 1.5hour commute from home to the office (penrose) is going to get even more expensive, and make his location less desirable to many. Unfortunately he thinks he can wait till the new year and the market will rebound. I don't want to be the one to point out to him that when you throw a body off a cliff it splatters on the rocks, it does not bounce far.
The percentage of sales are not that important. It is the number of sales compared to long term trends that really matter. I have seen articles with heading like '100 % sales at this weeks auctions' yet it there were only a couple up for auction to begin with which is a bit misleading. I would appreciate seeing the numbers of auction sales for the week in comparison to auction sales to previous years to really appreciate where the auction sales part of the housing market is heading.
As an investment, stand-alone houses (especially those on a freehold/fee simple title) are far superior to apartments.
In the long-run, it's land that underpins value - not buildings/improvements. But many people don't understand that - though most investors do.
But apartments have their place - if you like the lifestyle. Plus, on average they're considerably cheaper than houses. Weathertight apartments have a huge advantage - though they appear to be in a minority in Auckland.
Clearly the market is at a tipping point. I agree not everyone has to sell. But I know quite a few people who bought multiple properties thinking prices would always rise. And I think interest only mortgages will have banks very very nervous. It will now just take a few people to start taking losses for a.bit of panic to set in. Property flippers are now.getting caught as last buyers. An earlier bright line would have perhaps saved.them. It would have prevented houses rising at unrealistic premiums in what was effectively gambling. Now.they are stuck with grossly inflated prices for.what they bought. At 10x.average wage first home buyers won't bail them out. Their only hope is immigrant buyers or other investors. Both are drying up.
What I dont get TTP, is that the housing market explosion over the last 4 years has coincided with foreign buyers. But now foreign buyers are conspicuous by their absence and we are stoppping foreign buyers, banks have tightened lending and and LVRs are having an impact, why do you not think this would not have an impact on house prices that are at an all time high.
People will be stupid to buy now until the market settles. We also have interest rates at the lowest they have ever been, sooner or later these will rise as well. It may not be this year, it may not even be next year, but since it takes over 30 years to pay off a house it will eventually happen.
Whos going to buy when NZers dont have to money to afford these houses.
Hi swapacrate,
You write, "why do you not think this would not have an impact on house prices that are at an all time high."
On how many occasions over the last 100 years have house prices in New Zealand NOT been "at an all time high"? The house price trajectory is almost constantly upward, so most years a new record has been set.
In five years time, we will all look back at the house prices of 2017 and marvel at how cheap they were.
The reality is that property is by far the most preferred investment in NZ. There's no evidence whatsoever to suggest that's going to change. In fact, my personal belief is that property will become increasingly sought-after.
I wish I had your crystal ball.
On how many occasions over the last 100 years have house prices in NZ not been "at an all time high"
Never this high. Im nearly 50, and at any stage other then my childhood, I could easily afford a house. Now I am earning more then I have ever earnt but the average property in Auckland is out of reach, and I definitely do not want to buy in Auckland. So will look elsewhere.
You still dont give any reasons though other then the last 100 years. Which I doubt.
In 5 years who will be able to afford an average house in Auckland if it goes up. Who can save a 20% deposit on a million dollar house. You would probably need a household income over 200K, and have very little going out in rent and other expenses. Not sure that is a sustainable way to keep prices up.
There is no common sense in this. We have had an all time high because of the foreign buyers, but they are gone now. We only have kiwis to prop up the market.
Its not only houses, it seems even our dairy farms are too much in debt for locals to afford to buy them. "The overseas buyers have been holding up the top end of the rural market. If that has truly been knocked on the head. (And I am waiting for the new govt to weasel out of it). There will be interesting times ahead. I heard of a chinese deal falling over as the new govt took its place at the helm. Who else is left to buy at the prices required to cover the debt?" This is from the current farming thread from Keith Woodward. This entire economy is built on a debt ponzi that if it continues MUST crash and the longer the ponzi continues then the larger the crash. There is absolutely no doubt that neoliberalism is doomed.
Fighting back from what? I voted for Green and am over the moon to see climate change getting some attention, not to mention the plan to plant 100 million trees a year - with the goal of planting a billion over 10 years!! As an investor I am holding my rentals for the long haul (20-25 years before retirement), and certainly not into some 'quick flick get rich in a hurry' scheme.
I like the way you are so confident. Im not sure if they will plummet or not. But if prices can rise really fast surely they can also drop.
I have read that a lot of the property that has been brought is for the short term to make a quick buck, in a fast rising market. What happens if people cant support these houses they brought and they dont realise their capital gains. What happens if a lot of the foreign buyers cant top up there mortagages as they cant get money out of their country.
There are so many variables and it is such a complex market, it is hard to tell exactly whats going to happen.
If I had your certainty TTP I would borrow right up to the hilt and get other people to lend me money, and buy buy buy.
Hi swapacrate,
You write, "If I had your certainty TTP I would borrow right up to the hilt and get other people to lend me money, and buy buy buy."
I would never advise that. I reckon it's far better to buy in at a level that one can reasonably afford and build up a portfolio gradually/prudently.
Life (and property) is not a race. Better to take things at a moderate pace and just enjoy the ride.
Remember that while there's an enormous obsession with property in NZ, there are many other aspects of life worth prioritising.
no, long term investors will probably hold on, its all the highly leveraged speculators who are watching capital gains disappear that will feel compelled to stop the bleeding.
Of course you were predicting prices to continue to boom after the election, lets see how that goes
Houses still selling quite quickly on Auckland's North Shore. Though I saw in the last auction results someone paid the same price for a smaller house in Hillcrest than someone did in Chatswood ... Cleary there are some new speculators in the market and I suspect they might feel a little burned already...
North Shore is gradually becoming a shit hole to live with ghost houses unable to sell. According to QV, values in East Auckland, the suburbs of Cockle Bay and Mellons Bay have experienced steep drops in value in the last 3 months at -3.5% and -4.8% respectively. The North Shore’s Schnapper Rock has also experienced a similar drop (-4.7%).
Hi Zachary,
There are masses of people waiting in the wings to buy property. So, yes, an implosion in the market can be pretty much ruled out.
As is clearly evident from this blog (and others like it) NZers are obsessed with property. They just can't get enough of it and many of them consume their lives with watching the market.
Well located property in NZ (especially centres like Auckland and Wellington) remains an excellent investment.
Remember - NZ ranks highly as a preferred destination to live - and increasingly so.
Communicating is expensive in Awkland.....20$ goes nowhere......
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11937197
And, it isn't going to get any better - ever
Read Bryan Gaynor's review of Fletcher Building in todays Herald and the difficulties faced by a Board of Directors trying to manage a horizontal conglomerate organisation and the failures because the directors don't have the necessary depth of expertise across all the divisions
And apply the logic of his treatise in relation to ACC and arrive at a conclusion
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=119…
New Zealand does not do conglomerates well - can't manage them
Great debate Gents, .... My call still stands, Auckland house price bottom was last seen in July / August 2017 ....don't get tangled with auction numbers and sales volume, this is only noise .... the Real Measure is Price ( average or median) - watch for a Trend in future reports from REINZ and QV etc .... S&D will govern market prices ( depending on areas, type, and quality) --- Price will be the final result of all Gov policy, RBNZ, and many other factors affecting the market ...
I agree with TTP, today's quality homes in Auckland will look cheap in 5 years time. Again, Old outdated rundown rubbish stock will get cheaper by the day until they are sold for almost the value of its Land. This is one of those times where stability will lead to development opportunities of old stock. .... Behold, Interesting times ahead !!
Totally agree Eco Bird. The auction results continue to show magnificent prices for quality stock in desirable locations. Money can still be made by buying do ups for relatively low prices.
If they got rid of cross-lease titles development opportunities of old stock could really accelerate boosting the local economy enormously.
Our first Kohi home was cross lease so we experienced the pluses and minuses of the structure. On balance we’d never do it again as dealing with neighbours who are close to certifiable is like MAFS. That said, most of those properties are cross leased to maximise development and have small sections e.g. 300m2. How would you redevelop those?
Gone to pay the increased rates.....probably.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11937197
Let's take this stable prosperous nation and destroy it. Let's introduce our communist principles and take from those that have, and have worked and risked for it, and give it to the lazy, the bludgers, and as was the clear result from an election where the nation elected 41 National M.P's versus Labour with 17, NZF with 0, Greens with 0, the clear losers. Well done NZ. Will the last person to leave please turn out the lights.
I think the new government should take note of what Allears has to say though. We are a stable and prosperous nation so proceed carefully.
I'm a bit different to other folk here in that I thank both Labour and National for bringing us safely to the near Nirvana we have today.
I just drove out to the far reaches of the Zachary Smith empire out in West Auckland and what a wonderful job they have done with the Waterview overpass and multi-lane highway. New traffic lights and roads have surely improved my property's value I feel, not mention the quality of life of the Westies.
The new government is focusing on crashing the house prices, eliminate poverty.and giving out free state houses to those who are living in cars! They are going to achieve that by taxing the hell out of the likes of you and I. Listening to Phil Twyford on radio this morning made me sick.
What did he say DGZ? I’m out of the country so don’t know exactly what’s on.
I’d love to be proven wrong but this government is the ‘frog in a pot’ scenario. Keep everyone calm then slip in something new every so often until we’re all boiled alive. Political grooming.
My party have come out of the corner swinging with a FB and Twitter campaign against the regional fuel tax. Very slick method. I’ve shared it to my FB page in the hope of bringing out some comment from some closet opposition. This is going to be a fun three years opposing anything and everything.
The equation is extremely simple
Foreign buyers in the market = prices through the roof
Foreign buyers leave the market = The bottom falls out of the market. We are in denial stage right now, pretending it isn't happening. It will take some time to get to acceptance, got all those other stages to go through, anger, bargaining etc.
I think there is a very strong possibility of another global crisis, simply because what China giveth, China can taketh away.
This one will cause a fundamental shift in how the world functions, and at the end of it could be the demise of the USA, I reckon they are already headed down that track, and they could take us to war.
What I think has nothing to do with $$$signs but everything to do with human nature, we are our own worst enemies.
Have you ever considered it may be the "TRICK" is Pump the Market, Leave the Market, Market falls, re-invest in the market, when the bottom falls out of the Market. ....Same with Farms, same with all Manor...of things.
A mugs game, if you indulge the Marketers. ..
Especially when some are using "Pumped Up Money, created with QE"
Just in case you had forgotten...QE...the answer to all our problems....Yellen...and Bernanke Says.
For those that keep claiming there is NOWHERE to build the coalitions 100,000 new houses. Here are plans to build an entire new city north of Pukekohe that could eventually house 500,000 persons. I suggest that among all other modern amenities, it should have its own hospital and a number ot top educational establishments that will more than equal those of the AKL central grammar zones.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11937945
I would suggest that most of the land around Pukekohe, Bombay, Patumahoe etc be permanently zoned rural so that we do not lose those valuable growing lands to concrete.
Can somebody please explain why we think we need to keep growing the population, especially seeing as it is one particular area that seems to be being burdened with it.
Not really.
4.3 million of us at dwelling ratio of 2.5 people per dwelling = 1,720,000 homes. 'Densifying those same homes @ 2.75 people per home = 4,730,000 ( about our current population), absorbing 430,000 'newcomers'.
So adding 1/4 of a person to each household takes up the slack with no new houses needed at all ! I know it doesn't work like that in practice, but neither does "we have to build homes for nearly 400,000" - it's all just statistics....
I have had contact with Phil Twyford about the protection of Pukekohe soils which he specifically talked about quite some time ago. I intend to hold his feet to the fire over it and anyone who is concerned about the likely loss of a food basket should as well, it is bad enough that Mangere has been sacrificed. phil.twyford@parliament.govt.nz
Yes it largely dedicated to horticulture, it is of course, seasonal, onions and spuds being the major crops, but also brassica and salad foods. Honestly, I cannot see a single drop of logic in destroying it. And if we are to have to cater to more people (though for the life of me, I cannot think of a single reason why) then we need that land.
When the going is good for a few years humans tend to get complacent.
Everything goes in cycles, including markets.
Time will tell how far property prices will fall in the next few years. It might be 5% or it might be 30%. Or it might be somewhere between those, which is my pick.
Canon, at the bottom of the Herald article it says Houses could be built for $450,000.
Further up in the article it says, A discussion document from Infrastructure New Zealand says land around the rail line at Paerata could initially add 30,000 homes on unzoned land priced for $450,000
Would be good to get this figure clarified. If they are to be "affordable" homes it would have to be closer to 450K than 850K. Would be interesting to see how such a place would turn out.
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