Residential building consents flat overall but down sharply in Auckland

Property

Auckland housing crisis intensifies in May as new dwelling consents drop sharply

30th Jun 15, 11:33am by Greg Ninness

There was bad news on the Auckland housing front in May with just 651 new dwelling consents issued during the month, down from 912 in April and 756 in March, and only slightly above the 611 issued in May last year.

That is well below the number needed to address the region's critical housing shortage and will likely add further fuel to the fire under Auckland's already white hot house prices.

It is estimated that Auckland needs at least 13,000 new homes a year added to its existing housing stock just to keep pace with growing demand as it struggles to cope with surging population growth and record high levels of migration.

That would require an average of 1083 new homes to be built in the region every month, and May's 651 consents were just 60% of what is required.

"The lack of progress on Auckland's housing construction may frustrate policy makers, although recent changes to the RBNZ's LVR restrictions could, at the margin, boost investor-led demand for new builds," ASB senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown said in a Quickview note of the consent figures.

However he still expects the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR again this year, and had penciled in a 0.25% cut into ASB's forecasts for July.

Nationally there were 2171 new dwelling consents issued in May which was little changed from the 2112 issued in April, 2271 issued in March and 2125 issued May last year.

After Auckland, the next largest area of activity was Canterbury where 549 consents were issued in May, compared with 427 in April and 605 in May last year.

That was followed by the Waikato where 254 consents were issued and where the number of consents has grown steadily since 180 were issued in January.

There was also a jump in the number of consents issued in Wellington with 150 issued in May compared to 120 in April but down on the 204 issued in March.

In the Bay of Plenty 145 consents were issued compared to 118 in April and 133 in May last year.

There were also 145 new consents in Otago which was up from 102 in April but unchanged from May last year.

In the year to May consents for 25,114 new dwellings worth $8.025 billion were issued, with another $1.709 billion worth of residential alterations also consented, taking the total value of residential building work consented during the year to $9.734 billion.

Consents were also issued for $486 million of non-residential building work in May, compared to $419 million in April and $370 million in May last year.

In the year to May the total value of non-residential consents issued was $5.399 billion (which includes new buildings and alterations), taking the total value of all consented building work (residential and non-residential) to $15.133 billion for the year.

That included $1.192 billion of office building work, $793 million of educational buildings, $715 million of retail premises, $611 million of storage buildings and $585 million of factories and other industrial buildings.

Building consents - residential

Select chart tabs

Source: Statistics NZ

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103 Comments

by xingmowang | 30th Jun 15, 11:44am 1435621448

errrr,

how about reporting some seasonal adjusted data or the trend data, which does not reveal any aspects from the spooky title.

by Kumbel | 30th Jun 15, 12:40pm 1435624835

Here's your monthly BC totals for Auckland City from the start of the Housing Accord:

476
779
704
433
464
561
697
611
599
849
656
537
591
967
630
482
528
756
912
651

The Housing Accord specifies softer targets than these but these are the only one that matter. Not once has the monthly target of 1087 been met. Using Auckland Council and the government's own figures Auckland is definitely going backwards.

by J.C. | 30th Jun 15, 12:44pm 1435625045

Too much risk and time needed to punt on new homes.

by Stephen Hulme | 30th Jun 15, 1:27pm 1435627636

Why would anyone bother, John Key affirms Auckland's housing market is one of the pillars underpining New Zealand's economic success?

But Key said the Christchurch rebuild, Auckland's housing market and tourism were helping stimulate the market inside the country.. Read more

by Kate | 30th Jun 15, 1:42pm 1435628524

He can't even manage to pull the wool over his own eyes anymore.

by Stephen Hulme | 30th Jun 15, 2:42pm 1435632165

Certainly not easy when the self defeating competition New Zealand initiated could not be more blatant.

China has started to build a joint Chinese-Russian livestock agricultural complex. A hundred thousand cows are planned to be bred in a project costing one billion Yuan.

The farm is being set up in the Chinese city of Mudanjiang with production supplied to the Russian market, Zhang Chuntszyao, chairman of the Association of Applied Economics of the Heilongjiang Province told Interfax on Monday. Read more

by Smalltown | 30th Jun 15, 6:18pm 1435645115

Our export of live dairy cattle to China must rank as one of the silliest we have done - Kiwis so dumb lah.

by skudiv | 1st Jul 15, 7:18am 1435691910

It may surprise you, but we have done far dumber stuff then that. Most of the world was exporting dairy stock to China. For a lesson in stupidity you need to look at the kiwifruit industry.

by cowboy | 1st Jul 15, 10:40am 1435704004

Just as we told Fonterra and LIC (LIC who _gave_ away the genetic database - one of NZ's national treasures, 50 years of irreplaceable historic data). but no, China was our special friend and we were so so special that the Chinese would consider "just us" or their FTA.....

by notaneconomist | 30th Jun 15, 2:32pm 1435631579

The bureaucrats are in control and they're doing everything they can to ensure that no one kicks the pillar from under their corner.

Key and his Govt should've hardened the heck up.........and sorted them out!!! MBIE and Councils are completely out of control.

The most astonishing thing to most people is that house prices would be about 1/2 to 2/3 the cost of what they are.....like Greece could we have odious debts?!?!.

by Anarkist | 30th Jun 15, 2:47pm 1435632425

Its not just a New Zealand phenomenon notaneconomist, there's a global bureaucracy, which has grown like slime mold for all our leader's professions about free markets and democracy and now its suffocating the world's political and social processes in a web of rules, regulations, laws, and bureaucratic procedures.

" Bureaucracy is a utopian project: like all utopians, capitalist bureaucrats (whether in private- or public-sector) believe that humans can be perfected by modifying their behavior according to some ideal, and blame anyone who can't live up to that ideal for failing to do so. If you can't hack the paperwork to file your taxes, complete your welfare rules, figure out your 401(k) or register to vote, you're obviously some kind of fuckup.

Bureaucracy begets bureaucracy. Every effort to do away with bureaucracy ends up with more bureaucracy.

Bureaucracy lies. The point of coming up with rules is to ensure that they're evenly applied. But everyone knows that rules aren't evenly applied. When we replace informal, arbitrary systems with formal sets of rules, the arbitrariness moves up a level -- moves up to "who has to follow the rules and who doesn't." Sell a joint, go to jail. Launder billions for the Sinaloa cartel, defer some of your bonus for a few weeks."
http://boingboing.net/2015/02/02/david-graebers-the-utopia-of.html

"In this best-selling and widely discussed critique of America's system of governmental regulations, Howard argues that "democracy has become a passive caretaker to a huge legal monument." While Americans have always prided themselves on having a government of laws and not of men, our over-reliance during the last few decades on statutes and regulations as a means to creating a better society has in fact created its opposite: "a system of regulation that goes too far while it also does too little...Our modern system of regulatory law can be traced back to the Enlightenment ideal of rationalism, Howard explains. From this ideal grew the notion that government should be "self-executing" and dispassionate, by functioning according to highly specific rules designed to anticipate every eventuality, preserve uniformity, and avoid discretion and abuse by officials. But the "rationalists' promise that all can be set out before we get there" has resulted in a system that is not only inefficient but also "precludes the exercise of judgement."

Howard argues that the growing dependence on law and regulation has had serious consequences for the quality of public discourse in America. Instead of fostering cooperation, our legal culture in effect undermines it."

by cowboy | 1st Jul 15, 10:45am 1435704312

A rant that has been said since the time of tribal Olders running the show.

You think the gullible would have woken up to that problem by now. That's what bureaucracy will do, That's what having people who will look at their own needs and give themselves personal excuses and expect that "the system" somehow gives them benefits if they allow it to rule them. And those whom would think they're clever in trying to take shortcuts and advantage by undercutting or abusing others (thus the classic "someone always spoils it for everyone else").

Until people take personal responsibility that will always be the case

by Brendon | 30th Jun 15, 1:32pm 1435627979

The premise of the Housing Accord was it would fix the planning problems that local government had created and that the Clark/Cullen Labour govt had turned a blind eye to.

But if you use David Chaston's above BC chart and move the timeframe back to 2001. You will see more houses were built in the 2002 to 2004 building boom than now.

National's special housing areas and housing accords have been a failure. They haven't fixed a broken system.

National after 7 years in government and coming up to 9 years since John Key took over the National party still have no idea on how NZ can provide a fundamental need- housing for an affordable price.

by xingmowang | 30th Jun 15, 3:38pm 1435635503

Would any foreign money attracted to NZ by selling NZ residential properties considered as a form of Foreign Direct Investment?

I think the Govt reckons it is.

by cowboy | 1st Jul 15, 12:02pm 1435708973

I think the government just sees money in their own pocket and ticks the boxes that say "it's ok" and "it's not my responsibility" and "I'm just doing my job".

IF it's an _investment_ where's the profit coming from and where is it going. (hint from NZ inhabitants; to the foreign investor). That is not in NZs or the Crowns interest.

by Thomas | 30th Jun 15, 7:22pm 1435648953

I've long thought that one of the issues in Auckland is that until about the early to mid 2000s there were plenty of easy infill options being executed. At some point around the early / mid 2000s, those options were pretty much running out. think Res 6a zone in Auckland City.
There's obviously less scale, but hundreds of "mum and dads" carving up sites into 2-3 sections all adds up.
I see little reason why some of Auckland very large areas of low density suburbia shouldn't take some "gentle density" ie. backyards used for small houses (single storey, circa 70-80 square metres) on small lots. Easy housing supply wins, with limited impacts. Could realise small 2 bed homes on small lots for circa 400-450K: good value in higher value locaiotns

by Kumbel | 30th Jun 15, 8:24pm 1435652687

All development - residential and commercial - is constrained by infrastructure. Infill is cheap as long as there is spare capacity in the various networks. It get expensive once that infrastructure is maxed out.

What even the Productivity Commission can't get its head around is that in real life planning for growth runs in the reverse direction from theory:

- the politicians/accountants tell the engineers what they can spend on infrastructure
- the engineers work out the cheapest design to serve the maximum number of properties and tell the planners
- the planners write a district plan that forces people to live where the engineers want them to

Everybody in the council is happy. Usually at the expense of the people who actually have to live in their city and pay for the privilege.

by Kumbel | 30th Jun 15, 8:16pm 1435652184

The Auckland Housing Accord has seen 12,833 building consents issued during its 20 months of existence. For Nick Smith and Len Brown to keep the commitments they made to Auckland and the nation, Auckland has 16 months to issue a further 26,117 at a rate of 1633 each and every month.

Can we now agree that the RMA is not the problem? The problem is Auckland Council and the government.

by Kate | 1st Jul 15, 10:12am 1435702331

And, I suspect, the quality of labour has a lot to do with it too;

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/69725450/shoddy-building-practices-rife…

Until we get back to a high quality and attractive apprenticeship market for new builders - we'll just get more and more and more of this problem. Immigration is not helping solve our building crisis.

by cowboy | 1st Jul 15, 12:30pm 1435710628

To improve building practices there needs to be better profitability for builders so they can hire _more_ staff and also employers need to be able to effectively discipline and dismiss staff. At the moment doing such things is too expensive and plagued with legal problems. There is no way to hold an employee accountable, as the bureaucracy just points everything at the employer and tells them to "fix it" but with no tools or means to do so.

by notaneconomist | 1st Jul 15, 3:22pm 1435720929

I am familiar with the BCITO apprenticeship scheme and it is very good. People have to know the theory and practicals to get signed off......and at the end of the day an apprentice gets through because they have proved their competence in all the areas that they have had signed off.

I get really annoyed that when something happens in an industry all people working in that industry get blamed.....the media love statements like....shoddy building practices rife...dirty dairying......these statements seem to ding the bells of a certain personality in the populace......it is no wonder people of different races, religions, ages etc have had to jump up and down to get their rights to be treated as free and equal individuals in society recognised!!!

by cowboy | 1st Jul 15, 5:41pm 1435729299

I do find it difficult that when someone or myself has the skills and the ability we aren't permitted to do the work and often have to hand it off to someone who is very expensive and frequently does a shoddier job in the process and when I don't have a lot of cash to throw at jobs (eg because I'm doing them for myself not backed by company budget, and I'm not on government or even median wage) there isn't much wiggle room for tradespeople to take their time. Which makes it harder to get a trainee in as well in that budget.
But even if I do have the skills, I'm expect to keep paying out for permission to use those skills. I don't have a money tree to pay the overhead for such licensing, for the few jobs I do in each category each year. I added it up once - for my skill list it would cost me 50% of my lifetime peak income to pay the certifications and registrations required to "stay listed"

by notaneconomist | 1st Jul 15, 7:37pm 1435736266

I think it is an absolute travesty when people with talents, skills and know how feel that society will not allow them to utilise them when the occasion calls.......imagine telling an artist or musician that they cannot practice their natural talents because they do not have the appropriate piece of paper.

How can a person reach their full potential as granted in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and how can a person be living their Ancient Rights as granted in the 1688 Bill of Rights if the bureaucracy won't permit them to do those things....simply because they don't have the right piece of paper????

by Kate | 1st Jul 15, 7:56pm 1435737384

Sure the apprenticeship education is good - but there is no incentive for industry/experienced builders to take on apprentices - much easier to hire casual labourers, many of which these days are from overseas.

by notaneconomist | 1st Jul 15, 9:00pm 1435741236

First of there has to be plenty of forward work so incentives won't fix that issue.

Secondly there is an enormous cost in keeping employees and far too many legislative requirements.. it is simply far easier to use labour only contractors.

by 2 Tooth Bora | 30th Jun 15, 1:26pm 1435627564

I say old boy aren't National doing a great job, golly they've only had years to fix this problem.
I was told they were to busy find a flash pad at the UN.
Meanwhile people loan more from overseas pushing NZ debt into Greek territory.

by xingmowang | 30th Jun 15, 1:59pm 1435629596

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_New_Zealand#/media/File:NZ_Gov…

I'd also wonder why Govt Debt doubled during the past 7 yrs.

by 2 Tooth Bora | 30th Jun 15, 2:18pm 1435630724

Based on that chart its doubled since the 2008 GFC! Fairly alarming!
You'd think National would learn from Greece that banks-creditors are ruthless, play brinkmanship to its tether, bringing our Country to its knees along with tough austerity measures.

by Dale Smith | 30th Jun 15, 1:43pm 1435628634

We have always said that affordable housing is not just a numbers game.

No use building thousands of Trabant's at Rolls Royce prices when the market wants and can only afford a new Toyota Corolla.

And its not that the market cannot release more. Nick Smith is on record saying that he was going to instruct the Hobsonville Point guys to release more land sooner than they had planned, ie they have been holding back supply, and of course the price has increased.

by Brendon | 30th Jun 15, 2:02pm 1435629756

Well said Dale. It is about competitive, affordable supply. Not restrictive unaffordable supply or even worse a bubble of expensive over supply.

by Mike B | 30th Jun 15, 2:48pm 1435632505

If NZ continues with over 50,000 imigrants per year and if 40,000 go to live in Auckland.

Just think, in 15 years time there will be 40k x 15 more people in Auckland.

That is 600,000 more people, and thats just new immigrants add to that the growth rate

There is no way Auckland is going to build that many houses so there will be NO housing crash in Auckland.

In 15 years time the average Auckland house will be worth $3 million

by sharetrader | 30th Jun 15, 2:52pm 1435632724

and anyone under 10 now will never own one unless they are born rich or win lotto

by Guido | 30th Jun 15, 5:39pm 1435642771

Also In 15 years time:-
Median wages will be 100k
A block of cheese will cost $50
The national debt will be 100% of GDP
Interest rates have finally normalised
And our communist 1st generation Kiwi leader is playing hardball with the IMF over the redline that is our pensions

by steven | 30th Jun 15, 7:45pm 1435650300

So you are an inflationista then?

Personally I see severe deflation in our future for assets but goods? depends on whether the seller holds an effective monopoly or not.

Interest rates, this is the new normal, or lower.

IMF & national debt, we and most other countries will have already defaulted. INF will be bankrupt and history.

pensions, gone....

by Guido | 30th Jun 15, 9:14pm 1435655675

100K wages in 15 years is not inflation.
But there has been high inflation already in housing, double digit inflation. Some of that inflation will leak out into goods hence $50 cheese. While CPI will magically stay low!
Every time a bank hands out some money for a mortgage, that is some freshly printed money.

New normal? Don't believe that, it's emergency rates until the big economies fix themselves. Once the big economies are on the mend or inflation takes off, interest rates will go up. New Zealand is a high interest paying nation anyway, it's the risk premium for our sub prime economy.

Yes I also think there is a high chance of deflation, hence the line about having to see the IMF or could it be the AIIB - Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

by Smalltown | 30th Jun 15, 6:24pm 1435645453

Forget the houses - what about traffic congestion, hospitals, schools, crime & policing. On second thoughts maybe it won't be a problem. It will be such a s@@@hole no one will want to live there and the name will change to Shanghaied.

by mandalay | 30th Jun 15, 7:37pm 1435649836

15 years? Try three!
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2015/06/28/panic-property-buyin…

by Tim Tam | 30th Jun 15, 6:42pm 1435646544

Well if theres no accommodation dont move here. The last thing akl needs is more people. And for non residents only buy new builds...put their money to use and win win for nz. But govt so blind it wont change policy. National R rubbish please vote in an alternative.

by Thomas | 30th Jun 15, 8:01pm 1435651277

This site seems distinctively left leaning, more so than it was a while back.
I don't think National have done things perfectly, but Labour a serious alternative? Really?

The problem I have with both parties is that they have been totally behoven to ideology....In the mid 2000s Labour had no time for the attention desperately needed to the supply side....meanwhile National are doing good things about the supply side but little about the demand side

But that's one step better than Labour...they didn't do anything about the supply OR demand sides when they were in power

by xelnaga | 30th Jun 15, 8:14pm 1435652044

Better to have an occasionally inept government than an evil one.

Left and right is just name calling. Most of us just want a government that is fit for purpose.

by bigblue | 30th Jun 15, 8:18pm 1435652313

It is the council of Len Brown that is inept. Dragging their heels with the unitary plan. They just need to change Res 5 and 6a zones to 250m2 or 300m2 and the section supply problem will be solved.

by Thomas | 30th Jun 15, 8:25pm 1435652741

BigBlue - agreed. The Council chickened out big time. Len Brown has always been a phoney and there are other phoneys in that mob, and not just left wingers. There's also too many pommie urban designers amongst the staff or advising the staff who know zilch about economics and development realities and the NZ way and seem to have English New Town fantasies. I mean many of the unitary plan rules are just ridiculous.

by xelnaga | 30th Jun 15, 9:38pm 1435657107

Auckland council are indeed part of the problem. But they also have to cope with the immigration levels that central government are inflicting.

by Thomas | 30th Jun 15, 8:28pm 1435652896

Labour did NOTHING about housing, despite it becoming an obvious issue in the early to mid 2000s. Apparently they spent millions designing fancy social housing schemes, the plans of which are gathering dust in the Housing NZ archives.

by sharetrader | 1st Jul 15, 7:55am 1435694120

No argument there about the last labour but then why has it taken national 7 years to start to work on the problem. We seem to go from one inept government to the next. Have a look at the votes in parliament and you will be surprised how many times national and labour vote for the same thing. Same as when they retire how many ex labour people appointed to boards by national Cullen comes to mind. What we need is fresh ideas and new people

by cowboy | 1st Jul 15, 12:36pm 1435710966

No.
Because people will act against an evil government.
They become apologists for an inept one.

Perhaps you mean less than perfect, which is better. Sadly they are trying to become perfectly inept.

by DFTBA | 1st Jul 15, 1:46pm 1435715195

People didn't act against the current government at the last election.
Evil is a strong word though.
But this government is definitely selfish, greedy, arrogant, and incompetent.
They're selling the country to the (not even) highest bidder.
Too busy organising their future jobs to do their current ones as they should.
.
Interesting to read the letters in the Herald...more and more voices against Key's regime....

by steven | 1st Jul 15, 7:12am 1435691552

This site left? you have got to be joking. Labour an alternative? no I agree they are even worse and yes did nothing about the problems coming, pure incompetance, but natioanl beofre and after them were/are no better. Not sure about ideology more laziness, ie in the good times do nothing to lose votes so no hard decisions ppl may not like, result, this mess.

by sharetrader | 1st Jul 15, 8:12am 1435695124

I find it funny when people label things left and right, do I agree with the financial way national has handled the economy no, I must be left then, but wait I think they should have massively scaled back WFF, accommodation supplements and scrapped student free interest loans that must make me right then
good financial sense is good financial sense whether left or right and you will find most people would rather have a government that runs the country as such rather than by stuck by ideology and when a good idea comes up that they wont go with or they cannot back down on a bad one because of ideology and we as a party cant do that
have a read of national cheerleader sites kiwiblog and whaleoil and you will find the same opinions and frustrations expressed here, conversely if you read the standard they are way off what is commented on here

by mandalay | 30th Jun 15, 7:34pm 1435649641

Panic house buying in China as the stock market collapses... Coming to an Auckland suburb near you! Let's just see how high those house prices can rise? I'm pegging at least 25% by the end of the year.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2015/06/28/panic-property-buyin…

by steven | 1st Jul 15, 7:14am 1435691651

and after the stock market goes pop, what makes ppl think the housing market will not?

"Moreover, the economy, even by the optimistic reporting of the National Bureau of Statistics, is sinking fast. The “new normal”—the phrase President Xi likes to use as an excuse—is, in reality, not slow growth as he implies but no growth or even contraction."

I agree with him.

by bigblue | 30th Jun 15, 8:05pm 1435651508

Change the Res 6a and Res 5 zone to one lot per 250m2 or 300m2 and thousands of sections could be created overnight. Have a 12 month amnesty period where no $30k or 40k development levy is payable and people will be very motivated to get the sections titled up. In addition two carparks per dwelling is a joke - it should be one car park per dwelling. Also remove the requirement for reverse manouvering - there is nothing wrong with reversing out of driveways. Do all of the above and there would be a surge of sections hitting the market. mIf government covered cost of water and power connections - even better!

by Chris_J | 1st Jul 15, 12:03am 1435665800

A temporary fix. What happens when all that infill is down? Auckland is full again.

There is no solution other than slashing migration to Auckland.

NZ should be for NZers not migrants. We don't need them and most don't want them.

Southern cities do fine without such an influx.

by Appreciating Assets | 1st Jul 15, 9:38am 1435700293

The IT sector needs immigrants. I work with many excellent immigrants that are making a great contribution in this industry in Auckland. Includes people from South Africa, South America, China, Pakistan etc.

by cowboy | 1st Jul 15, 10:31am 1435703467

But what about our graduates that can't get jobs?

Or our New Zealand people that want to work in IT but can't even get entry level stuff and there's no training or funding available.

Send your career thieves home.

I was once one of those people trying to get training and experience in the IT field. No-one would touch me without expensive courses that my wages wouldn't cover and without years of experience in the job I wanted to do (which surely by now some New Zealanders have woken up to the realisation if you want experienced people you have to take people on at ground level and give them experience, no excuses).

So if there's demand in IT, we really need to SHUT that door fast.

And when I asked the university careers person this month, they didn't actually know of any hiring companies, let alone which degrees they were asking for.

by steven | 1st Jul 15, 12:02pm 1435708965

Well 2 things, a bigger picture. a) More ppl means more costs in infrastructure and services and why not employ NZers first? why not be prepared to train ppl up?.

b) So do I work with such ppl, some are very good some frankly a load of doo doo. So wht cannot NZers be trained up? We have almost 6% un-employed, they will be claiming benefits.

Or maybe its more of a case of getting a "cheap" overseas worker thus keeping costs/wages down.? So in effect given a) the tax payer/rate payer is subsidising businesses plus the speculators are making a killing plus FHBers are committing too much of their wages in mortgages taking spending power out of the economy ie the banks feed off them, plus tax payers are paying out more for WINZ than needbe, yes great result.

by Guido | 1st Jul 15, 12:45am 1435668309

You'll need two car parks per dwelling, for two workers to service the mortgage.
No joke.

by steven | 1st Jul 15, 7:05am 1435691106

2 car parks was at 6 to 1 ratio, we are now looking at a 9 to 1 ratio so bigamy and 3 car parks seem, um essential.

by Guido | 1st Jul 15, 7:25am 1435692356

So as the next macro-prudential tool, the reserve bank should only allow Mormons to get mortgages in Auckland

by steven | 1st Jul 15, 12:03pm 1435709012

I think bigamy is still illegal in NZ no matter your religion.

by cowboy | 1st Jul 15, 10:35am 1435703719

could start putting development levy on a advance basis, instead of a big lump sum at development time. all undeveloped land targeted for development (ie not rural zone used for rural) to attract 5% of development levy each year, then discounted off the development levy if the receipts are produced - so it's not extra taxation, but does lift cost of land banking, while reducing the "activiation energy" of a large lump payout at the start of a development project.

by bigblue | 30th Jun 15, 8:04pm 1435651485

Seriously - make those changes above and the section supply problem would be solved overnight - Nick Smith & Len Brown that's all you need to do. Forget this hare brained green fields development that is only going to quickly add to massive traffic congestion.

by xelnaga | 30th Jun 15, 8:05pm 1435651542

A lot of people still seem to fail to realise that Auckland is a speculative bubble where prices have become far far detached from intrinsic value.

Once the perception of those future capital gains dries up (and they will eventually) there is very little to support the whole streaming pile of crap from collapsing in on itself.

by Shogun | 30th Jun 15, 8:49pm 1435654145

There is not going to be Ireland type of correction here. Worst case sceanario might be couple of percentage drop so not worth trying to time the market!

by xelnaga | 30th Jun 15, 9:06pm 1435655200

This time it's different right?

Rental yields don't even come close to covering the cost of renting the mortgage money. Chasing expected capital gains is what is driving this market and it will come to an end sooner or later.

by sharetrader | 30th Jun 15, 11:37pm 1435664260

unlikely many people see rental housing as there only opportunity to set themselves up.
until you make that option not viable or very very unattractive it will continue.
most see tipping in and running a negative cashflow as not a problem as GC more than covers it in the end.

by steven | 1st Jul 15, 7:08am 1435691302

You are gambling on that fact as Auckland is in a 2.5 : 1 maybe 3 : 1 bubble but its no biggee. That I wish was just your call, sadly others such as myself as tax payers have our future incomes at risk if the Govn has to prop up the banks due to your greed.

by bigblue | 30th Jun 15, 8:09pm 1435651764

xeinega - sorry but with net migration into NZ at record levels and likely to surge further over the next two or three years, extremely low levels of new house construction, interest rates for mortgages likely to drop to 4% or less within 6 months, no stamp duty, no CGT etc and there is little chance of a collapse any time soon.

by xelnaga | 30th Jun 15, 8:40pm 1435653658

So what you are saying is that fundamentals no longer matter? It will just be massive compound growth year after year ad infinitum, because THE CHINESE!!!

That is a mathematical impossibility. There are limits.

by Chris_J | 30th Jun 15, 8:48pm 1435654129

Big blue, I hope Bill English reads that. The only solution is government intervention. All other options such as increasing supply are too slow and will never work.

We need immediate immigration controls. An immediate stamp duty for foreign investors. CGT for foreign investors with losses ring fenced and only allowed open market sales.

That would be the start of the solution.

by Thomas | 30th Jun 15, 8:54pm 1435654461

Chris_J
Agree - but in addition to supply approaches
Some people have been advocating for both supply and demand side approaches for many years...

by two otherguys | 1st Jul 15, 3:09pm 1435720142

As time goes by, the supply-siders look more and more helpless

by Donker | 1st Jul 15, 7:51am 1435693916

There is no housing crisis...........there's an immigration crisis. More houses is not the answer lot of new houses have been built in Auckland past 10 years, whole suburbs now owned by Asian people. If all those houses were occupied by kiwis we wouldn't have a problem now would we?

by Donker | 1st Jul 15, 7:54am 1435694060

Not PC to say that now though is it?

by Donker | 1st Jul 15, 8:02am 1435694526

You get labelled as racist now if you're anti immigration, so all you people who did this to Winston Peters, shut up and don't complain. Embrace your cultural diversity

by DFTBA | 1st Jul 15, 1:49pm 1435715366

I've tried, but I haven't seen anyone complain about the amount of British immigrants coming t NZ every year....
And there are a lot of them..
Nicely white ones, too.
They, too, buy houses
..
but?

by Basel Brush III | 1st Jul 15, 8:05am 1435694741

Just to note how inept the politicians are the Sunday Star Times featured the weekly stoush between Phil Goff (prospective Auckland mayoral runner) and Judith Collins (outed Nat minister) about the Auckland HOUSING problems.
Not a single reference from either about IMMIGRATION.
Says it all!

by Thomas | 1st Jul 15, 8:06am 1435694761

Can someone tell me how many of the big immigration numbers are kiwis returning? I thought it was quite high? Not much we can do about that, I would suggest.
there's a bit of a nasty xenophobic tone to some of the comments here. I would be the first to say the bar needs to be raised in terms of eligibility, mind you. I think a cutting of numbers by circa 30-40% feels about right.

by Basel Brush III | 1st Jul 15, 8:26am 1435695964

Obviously with citizens there is a large churn. So many move in and out. However because they often have connections elsewhere in NZ many coming back go elsewhere.
Regarding Indian and Chinese the only place to be is Auckland, many coming to join in their contacts within their potential ghetto.
Xenophobia? So what?

by sharetrader | 1st Jul 15, 8:37am 1435696624

Governments always use stats that suit there point of view. for example national are using the national medium house price rise to talk down Auckland and the national returning new Zealanders figures.
just the same as they denied foreign buyers particularly Chinese were buyers of large parts of Auckland because no figures were kept to disprove them.
Just the same labour are using specific figures to talk up the problem.
there is a problem in Auckland and it is not complex it is simple supply and demand
the supply side is low because of a number of issues which need dealing too and will take time to sort
the demand side is due to our open access and cheap credit put restraints in and you will reduce it.
governments see mass immigration as a wonderful way to increase GDP but is it, uncontrolled it can lead to social and economic problems that's why we have a system in place to cherry pick the ones that will add value when they arrive.
The Goal is for a NZ population of 7 million, trouble is 5 will want to live in Auckland
http://www.dol.govt.nz/publications/research/plt-migration-big-picture/…

by don'tgetmegoing | 1st Jul 15, 9:36am 1435700190

7 million? Gee, that's odd, as a few years back it was 5. We are not far off that figure, so now it's 7. I wonder what it will be as we approach 7 million, as the whole way we do things at the moment there actually is no end number, it must simply continue to go upwards. When it comes to ratcheting it up to 9 million those of us who recall 5 being the optimum number will be gone, and it will be the ones who accepted 7 as a good number who will be expressing the same concerns as me - that growth has to be finite and we have to come up with another way to do things

by two otherguys | 1st Jul 15, 2:16pm 1435717002

xenophobia
When a community is under siege, there are two possible responses. One is to turn away from the problem and cry bigotry or racism or xenophobia. The other is to face the problem squarely. Often it’s misguided outsiders who refuse to confront problems pointed out by brave insiders

by Thomas | 1st Jul 15, 8:08am 1435694919

there's a lot of black and white (no pun intended) stuff spouted here....things don't work that way in a complex world and with complex issues:
- We need more supply
- We need to work on the demand side
- Immigration has benefits
- It also has disbenefits
- we need to critically look at reducing it, but not "banning it"

by Guido | 1st Jul 15, 8:21am 1435695714

Disbenefit? Did you get that out of the PC phrase book?

by don'tgetmegoing | 1st Jul 15, 9:38am 1435700284

Happily for us, English is a fluid and evolving language, what does one do with one of these, nowadays - : other than :)

by cowboy | 1st Jul 15, 12:07pm 1435709252

Well the black and white does evolve in the real world.

You either pay a dollar - or you don't. If 10% is taxed away you no longer have a dollar to spend.
You either have an abode or you don't.
You either have running water or sanitation or you don't.
You can't have half a law.

by waymad | 1st Jul 15, 11:38am 1435707488

Well, here's a bureaucratic bypass proposal.
- allow Home Start to apply to mobile homes, caravans and other portable living abodes. This provides instant accommodation at sub-$200K prices (motorhomes run $100-150K, caravans $40-90K).
- Designate brownfield areas which have services (water/sewer/power) as SHA's suitable for occupation by aforesaid Home Startees.
- Quick site development (gravelling, services per plot) - would run perhaps $10K per site
- allow for amenity blocks at a suitable ratio at say $200K a throw
- Allow long term leases (quick guide: around $16-20 per person per night is normal camp ground cost on a for-profit ground) so 'rent' which includes all services including power would run about $350/week for a three-person all-week deal on a not-for-profit basis.
- Site caveats to include no purple hippy buses, controls over number and breed of dogs, and a 'quiet enjoyment' clause but of course. Penalty for infractions: up stakes and move (this stuff has Wheels, so easily achieved).
- sites should be adjacent to public transport and with some imagination could occupy long. linear areas such as those beside rail lines, thus saving valuable agricultural land for Better Things.

There.

Accommodation issue solved. And at a moderate cost. No Council minions in sight: everything is portable so their grasping little fingers cannot touch anything. Intensification achieved. Just perhaps not where the Planners Planned.

What's not to like?

by Kate | 1st Jul 15, 11:55am 1435708522

Mobile home/trailer parks as neighbourhoods - common in the US. A great-aunt of mine lived in one in LA. I'll never forget pulling up there with a taxi driver who exclaimed what a lovely place it was and commenting on how much he hoped that someday he could afford to live in one.

by Chris_J | 1st Jul 15, 1:28pm 1435714133

Your solution is camping grounds?

That is not a solution at all.

by rastus1 | 1st Jul 15, 3:07pm 1435720060

could be for some...massive mortgage or mini home..take your pick if you want some sort of life outside mortgage slavery..
http://www.designboom.com/contemporary/tiny_houses2.html

by pouggey | 2nd Jul 15, 12:27pm 1435796867

Hi rastus, you may like this one :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBYS3ZsC-cY

by two otherguys | 1st Jul 15, 1:44pm 1435715054

So now it's come to trailer parks. wondered how long that would take to pop-up. Obvious
.
There are 100,000 arrivals into New Zealand per year, there are 44,000 departees each year, a net of 56,000 additional people of which half stay in Auckland. Nobody has the slightest idea where they are accommodating themselves. If they do know they are not saying.

The available statistics must be woefully wrong

by sharetrader | 1st Jul 15, 8:12pm 1435738357

we already have them in south Auckland, not mobile homes but caravans. the one in mangere got closed due to all the social issues it caused
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10010412

by Smalltown | 1st Jul 15, 12:41pm 1435711289

Sounds like we have the housing sorted - anyone got any ideas to sort out the problems that will (here already??) come with traffic congestion (Bangkok like now), health, education, policing?

by Roelof | 1st Jul 15, 1:17pm 1435713458

I found this really interesting.... Innovation in construction..??

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-3cca82c0-af80-4c3a-8a79-84fda50…

by waymad | 1st Jul 15, 2:05pm 1435716301

Yes, of course, column-and-plate is easy to throw up if it can be done in other than concrete. A lot of Christchurch new office builds are using steel in something of the same way.

But translate this to an NZ context and watch the blockages appear:
- where's the producer statement for every beam, column, joiner, nut, bolt, rivet, washer in the entire structure?
- where's the Working at Heights safeguards (watch the vid and note the complete absence of scaff...)
- where's the inspection when (watch the vid) the thing is leaping into the sky 24 hours a day? Hmmmm - can't have that. Must inspect every floor before we let yez start the Next one.
- working 24 hours a day - how are we gonna know that them Woikers are getting the lunch breaks? Hmmm - better make them fill out logbooks (works sooo well for truckies).
- How Green is the whole concept? Hmmm - better insist that only steel from Sustainable Sources, smelted with lotsa Solar Panels, is used.
- How are we gonna Insulate that thing? Hmm - better insist on thermally broken columns and beams - cannot have Global Cooling causing frostbite to this thing's Occupants.

Whoops! It's taking five years to build, at 1200% of the original estimate. Whodathunk?

by two otherguys | 1st Jul 15, 3:17pm 1435720625

Cooking the books

How many of those 651 consents were for high-density apartments?

because

In todays article by Greg Ninness, Colliers say in the last few months around a dozen developments of 2000 apartments have been deferred or abandoned - appears they get consented then shelved

http://www.interest.co.nz/property/76253/colliers-says-surge-apartment-…

by Donker | 1st Jul 15, 9:42pm 1435743729

I heard that a lot of the asian immigrants claim the pension? what a joke

by Donker | 1st Jul 15, 9:42pm 1435743765

After only 18 months! lol

by Donker | 1st Jul 15, 9:43pm 1435743817

and a lot of the older ones can't even speak english - sweet as come to NZ and get a handout

by Your Landlord | 2nd Jul 15, 10:38am 1435790317

Given the current housing situation, I think we should give credit to New Zealand's landlord community for working diligently to provide accommodation for people in such an efficient way, and at extremely competitive prices too.

Not enough is done by the government to thank these New Zealanders for their contribution.

by don'tgetmegoing | 2nd Jul 15, 10:43am 1435790584

Not enough is done to rid the market of landlords and foreign buyers who have pushed prices out of the reach of ordinary NZers FORCING them to rent. Anything done with force is not a service in any way, shape or form.

by Your Landlord | 2nd Jul 15, 11:07am 1435792020

Landlords don't force up prices. They are all trying to buy properties for as little as possible. It's home buyers who 'fall in love with the property' who are paying more and more.

No landlord forces a person to rent their property. The landlord advertises the property and people who are interested in renting express an interest. It all works pretty well really, which is a credit to the system that operates in New Zealand.