Here is the Realestate.co.nz report in full on Unconditional.co.nz and here is the text of the monthly report below.
December saw the lowest recorded level of new listings since 2007 with just 8,924 coming onto the market in December.
The stock of unsold houses dipped for the first time in 6 months as November sales showed some strength. Total inventory now stands at 50 weeks.New property asking price shows no price movement
The expected selling price of new listings remained stable in December at $415,750
The current asking price expectation of vendors remains 3.1% below the peak of the market back in October 2007 – at that time $429,033.
Commentary
December traditionally is the quietest month of the year for listing of new properties for sale. The run up to Christmas tends to curtail the listing period to a part-month rather than a full-month with the consequential lower listing count. On a seasonally adjusted basis December this year shows no percentage change as compared to November, indicating the seasonal trend was expected, however the absolute level of listings is significant at this new low level.
The 2010 year has seen a consistent lower level of listings as the sales of properties has slowed through the year. In the full year 138,789 new listings were added to the market which began the year with 52,817 listings (at the time equivalent to 37 weeks of sales). The year ended with 53,077 barely a discernible difference in absolute number of properties on the market yet with a lower rate of sale the inventory of unsold houses now amounts to 50 weeks.
The recent sales report for from REINZ for November of 5,138 properties sold, did show a significant increase of 28% on a seasonally adjusted basis indicating that the market was showing some signs of life as the stability of interest rates and economic indicators moved into more positive territory.
The indicator of asking price expectation has shown a repetition of 2009 with a couple of peaks; currently returning down to a midpoint reflecting the fact that in the past 3 years vendors expectations of price increases have as yet not found a firm footing.
Asking Price
The truncated mean asking price for all new listings coming onto the market in December fell very slightly from $417,660 to $415,750.
On a seasonally adjusted basis the asking price actually rose by 1.3%. Asking prices seem to be showing volatility especially with such low levels of listings coming onto the market.
The current asking price continues to drift down below the peak of Oct 2007, currently off 3.1%.
New Listings
The traditional seasonal fall in December was as expected, but when coming off a slower level of preceding months the actual level of 8,924 hit a record low. No single month since Jan 2007 has seen a total of less than 9,000 per month.
On a moving annual basis the past 12 months have seen 138,789 new listings compared to 135,416 in the prior year an increase of just 2.5%.
Inventory
The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of December fell to 53,077 from 54,365 in November.
This represented the equivalent of 50.1 weeks of equivalent sales, as assessed on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The inventory of unsold houses, whilst dipping slightly as a consequence of a strong November sales continues to sit well above the long term average of 40 weeks of equivalent sales, this still sees the market showing a “buyers-market” inclination.
Regional Summary – Asking price expectations
Whilst the national asking price expectation remained steady with just a small fall from prior month, the regional analysis shows some significant variances. Amongst the 19 regions almost half showed a rise whilst the remained showed a fall. Strong increases in asking prices were seen in the North Island with Auckland showing a significant 5.2% increase as compared to recent 3 month average. The Hawkes Bay and Central North Island also showed strong increases, although in the latter region the volume of new listings was low.
Price movements in asking prices across the South Island were less significant with the Nelson / Marlborough region showing increases of over 5%.
Regional Summary – Listings
With the record low level of new listings in the month the sentiment of the market based on new properties fresh to the market would seem to show an inclination to a seller’s market. This however takes no account of existing inventory of unsold houses on the market
In spite of the overall fall in new listings across the country, both the Coromandel and the Wairarapa both saw rises in new listings as compared to December last year. There were 5 regions of the 19 across the country that saw year on year falls of more than a third – Northland, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Marlborough and Central North Island.
With the exception of the latter region all of the others still have a relatively high inventory of unsold houses on the market.
Regional Summary – Inventory
Despite the record low level of new listings and the relatively strong sales of properties in November the overall level of inventory of unsold houses on the market is still significantly above the long terms average (50 weeks as compared to 40 weeks). The Auckland region now sitting with 36 weeks of unsold houses as compared to a long term average of 34 weeks is more finely balanced and with a 25% seasonally adjusted increase in property sales in November is certainly a more active market than other areas of the country.
Also of note is the Canterbury region which whilst suffering a significant initial impact of the September earthquake reported a 38% seasonally adjusted increase in sales in November – such levels seeing a reduction in available inventory edging the region towards a more balanced market.
65 Comments
Two years later and the market remains flat and maybe even a little stronger . The dolts in treasury and the whingers on this site never thought of alternative "C" and they will be chewing their finger nails down to the bone for being so blind to the bleeding obvious.
Alternative "A" was the market collapsing. Alternative "B" was the market rising. Alternative "C" was the market staying flat.
Reason: the majority of people do not actually have to sell when push turns to shove.
No one repeatedly voiced that alternative except for one person who picked it and has turned out to be 100% right as usual:
http://www.interest.co.nz/property/double-shot-interview-property-inves…
Bigdaddy, are you saying the likes of Olly has it right and the likes of Wolly has it wrong??
You are opening yourself up for derision from all those who only see the negatives taking place. Personally I think Olly is overly positive but yes the reality is nowhere as bad as some make out.
Ostrich- your logic is brilliant. What indeed happend to the 80602 other "listings" ? I would imgagine that many were withdrawn and even more were re listings. Eitherway it shows how the statistics can be skewed to read whatever the propagandists want us to read.
By the way " I am the Man" I work in a shop part time and own no property but I know genius when I see it.
Who turned 65 yesterday? Someone did... the first of tens of thousands of NZ'ders who will this year.....and next year...and next year. Sure, that happens every day. But the BB'ers' retiring will start to kick in from hereon in. I wonder how many of them will look to access those "investment properties that they have for retirment?". Because with the ever rising cost of daily living, it's going to be harder to live on whatever pension they get, and the static rental income. That capital, all locked up in the investment, is going to come out....continuously, from now on, for many years to come. We in NZ are not alone....
Some theory from America is that BB investors will flee bonds , due to low yields , and begin charging holus bolus into the stockmarket , chasing high yield stocks to fund their retirement . And given that the Dow Jone Index is currently 70 % above it's March 2008 low , I'd say that'd be their move .
Buy at the top / Sell at the bottom . Such is the wont of private investors .
Of all the BBs I know, many have already downsized. The few that had the foresight to end up with a few freehold rentals have no intention of selling them - the rental income is much better than the pension and more reliable than stocks and bonds. I'm GenX, and most people I know with sizeable property portfolios are GenX, so maybe we'll be the ones left holding the parcel when the music stops eh? Although by then my properties will be well and truly freehold and there's a strong possibility there will be no pension, in which case I'll be quite happy holding the parcel....
The "Baby Boomers Sell En Masse and Cause Crash" theory is over-cooked, and gets recycled by procrastinators who wish they'd bought a property 20 years ago and now continually pray for a crash of massive proportions. Those that did buy 20 years ago now have a freehold house, even if they didn't do anything else, and they don't really care about 30% booms or busts.
In another 20 years there will be a whole new generation of procrastinators bemoaning house prices and telling people that have paid off a 20 year mortgage how lucky they were to get in when they did. Some things never change....
'By the way " I am the Man" I work in a shop part time and own no property but I know genius when I see it.'
Thanks, but I'm not really a genius.
So Olly, when did you start working in a shop? Was it after the bubble collapsed and your property schemes fell apart, or have you been moonlighting to make ends meet for a while?
"By the way " I am the Man" I work in a shop part time and own no property but I know genius when I see it."
Mate hang on a second! You used to post here as 'The Man' and claimed you were a mighty Christchurch property investor..... now you say you're just a parttime retail employee?
Somewhere it's written that the key to being a successful liar is having a good memory! You fail.
BigDaddy, 02/01/11, 7:47 am:
...I work in a shop part time and own no property but I know genius when I see it.
--------------------------------------------------------------
BigDaddy, 14/09/10, 9:54 pm:
They continue to be spectacularly wrong as predicted by me 18 months ago when I said that the market would stay more or less flat and would remain so for a year or two longer yet.
ollie 1 whingers 0
Dumbarse ..... you outed yourself already! In your old posts you said you were Olly N!
Is it surprising that no-one respects you or your word now that you have been proven to be a liar who uses a sock-puppet account to call himself (-Olly-) a genius?
You have zero credibility.
Look carefully at the wording of the first paragraph , it says " new " lisitngs in December are lowest , but we know there is already 52 weeks of unsold inventory, which implies there is a massive number of unsold properties on the market. What we also know is that Real Estate agents are still struggling, the honest ones will tell you its a battle out there .
As an aside , I travelled the side roads ( Not SH1) all over Rodney District over the Christmas season , and virtually every second property has a for sale sign on it. Its actually quite depressing to see so much property for sale. One's immediate thought is "what is the underlying reason for this and what is going on here ?"
One hopes these are not all stressed sellers , or we could see a tsunami of forced sales further depressing the market in 2011.
They're probably not the distressed sellers, Boatman. They're the ones who've heard the tsunami warning, and have the sense to run for high ground before the wave actually comes into sight. By then ( this Autumn?)...it's too late....That YouTube link by AndyH, yesterday, says it all...'The same doomsters who were laughed at last time...are being derided again, for seeing the worst... as yet to come'
Yep.
Snapping up every property for sale no matter how overpriced must have seemed like a good idea at the time, but now even the dumbest of the dumb realise how wrong they were then and how exposed they are now.
What a shame there's no money around to pay for the still overpriced property up for sale. And that everyone now understands how overpriced it is and how prices are going to keep falling for a long time.
Ah well, live and learn, and if you don't learn you die. Natural selection I believe it's called.
"What a shame there's no money around to pay for the still overpriced property up for sale"
ANZ New Zealand commits $3 billion in new lending
and that's on top of the $3.5 billion they already expect to lend.
Sure, it's earmarked for small and medium sized businesses, but when you go to the bank to borrow a bit more for your business, guess what the first question they ask is?
"And what properties do you have for security?".......
Happy New Year to you all.
Went back to TGA at the weekend,left there 2 yrs ago for Hamilton(via Cambridge)and houses we were looking at then,still for sale.But now cheaper-typical!Same thing in Hamz now,also Ray Whites in Rototuna closed down just before Xmas.Even one big sub-division has applied for change of use to allotments for small market gardens,another in recievership!Our council has shelved a few infrastructure projects-resevoirs,pump stations and the like.,due to building levies,connections,sub-divisions etc. all being down.This year is going to be very interesting.
Looks like a lot of you a backing the wrong horse.
In the "Rob Report" just released by Bayleys, 50 homes over $3Million were sold in the Eastern suburbs of Auckland alone in the past 12 months. Of those 17 were sold for betwen $3-$4milion, another 30 for $4-9Milllion, a couple more for $9million plus and one for $15Million.
The clever and rich are rightly ignoring the whinging mob and just getting on with it.
That, to me, just confirms that 50 owners wanted to sell their expensive houses before they become worth less. But for every seller ~ there is a buyer, I hear you say. Absolutely! But who were they? None of us know...and each buyer could have been 'downgrading' rather than going up the tree or selling into a trust or another arms-length party, to protect their assets etc.
The clever and the rich might just be doing what got them into that position......selling at a good price ....before it's too late.
My Wellington house sale was on the front page of the Dominion today as one of the top Wgtn sales for 2010.
I do not regret selling it and doubt that I could get the same price today.
Life has been good away on the boat since then. I will stay out of the market for a while and watch things drop before I re enter.
I wont be spending the same coin on the next house.
Maybe I could buy it back in a few years with some good change?
The "press release" is not a press release but a proper report giving actual addresses, with colour photos, date of sale, age of property, size of land, previous sale price, CV etc etc so no manipulation is possible.
Olly's advice to young men and incidently young women in the middle and higher ranks of life is simple.
The median price within the next 5 years in average suburbs will be over $1 miliion.
Choke on that.
Okay - here are some genuine questions for you OllyN/BigDaddy:
How is it possible for property prices to start rising again and reach crazy heights when people are not being paid any more than they were during the last bubble, and while the cost of living and inflation is increasing?
And if banks once again start lending stupid amounts to all-comers, won't that just lead to a repeat of the bubble and its inevitable demise just like the last one?
Very few people currently earn anywhere near enough to support the size of mortgage necessary for asking prices as they are now, so it would seem that, unless there is a massive income spike and/or reduction of the cost of living and inflation, the notion of even higher property prices is unrealistic.
Quite possible .. NZ is a multi-speed economy .. there is enough inherited (silent) wealth (money at play) within NZ, sufficient that $3 mill is chump change .. even in a severe recession .. property prices in the eastern suburbs .. within 10 km of the CBD will continue to rise .. mortgages are not needed ..
NBR set $NZ 50 million as the cut off for their 2010 Rich List .
150 made the cut : 100 men , 3 woman , 39 families , and 8 pairs .......... Zero Gummy Bears ............... oooooooooooooh !!!!
What would be interesting , is the total number of $NZ 10 to $NZ 50 millionaires around . Because even at a mere $ 10 million net worth , a 30 % committment of all net assets to one of those houses still leaves 70 % available for proper investing . ............ [ And that's assuming no gearing ]
P.S -- : Some of the mega rich may not live in Auckland , of course , but London-to-a-Brick more of them have made their fortune and are domiciled in the Queen City than in Bluff , Reefton , or Parnassus .
That is a highly optimistic viewpoint, in a "clutching at straws" kind of way.
Let's take a closer look at it.
There are many properties for sale right now, more even than at the peak of bubble fever, when buyers would crawl over broken glass to throw suitcases full of money at sellers.
But right now there are very few buyers, because the general sentiment is that it's time to pay down debt if you have it and otherwise save as much as you can, because times are tough and will likely become tougher.
So you have a glut of available property on the market, but asking prices remain unrealistically high, and few are in a position to meet them.
If you do have some money, and you're willing to buy, would you pay the asking price?
Or maybe you'd say to yourself, "Hmmm, lots of houses, bugger-all buyers; I'll offer this clown shitloads less than he wants, take it or leave it. If he says no, I'll walk away and wait until a good place goes mortgagee and grab that instead. Maybe it'll be his place."
If these filthy rich buyers have so much money that they don't care what they pay then, yes, possibly property prices could begin to increase again, assuming there are a lot of filthy rich buyers around willing to pay any price for lots of property.
But what are the odds?
Do filthy rich people say to salespeople "Oh, don't worry about the discount or sale price, just charge me the full amount, I can afford it!" whenever they buy anything from anyone?
Why wouldn't these filthy rich would-be house buyers be, to quote RE sales hacks everywhere, as "savvy and discriminating" as anyone else capable of recognising a buyer's market when they see one, such as exists now?
If I was a filthy rich would-be property buyer, I'd be mercilessly squeezing the seller, because rich or not I can't see a good reason to pay more than I have to. The kind of people we're talking about aren't renowned for their innate sense of charity.
Anyone willing and able to buy now will also be willing to drive a hard bargain, simply because they know that sooner or later - and almost certainly sooner - they'll be dealing with a vendor who needs to sell more than the buyer needs to buy.
And if these buyers pay a lot less than the asking prices, how can prices rise? The trend would be down, not up, because anyone silly enough to think they can tack on a zero in order to milk these filthy rich buyers will be hung out to dry.
Of course, as everyone well knows, the alternative that buyers have is to sit back and watch prices fall further, because little old NZ just doesn't have enough richy rich trustfund kiddies, and doctors and lawyers, and all the rest able to 'single-handedly' rescue the NZ property bubble, even if they wanted to.
Follow the fundamentals. Houses cost too much, too few people have the asking price. The market will continue to slide until it bottoms out around the point where the average income-earner can once again afford to buy a house without having to borrow an insane and unsustainable amount of money to do so.
That point is still a long way off.
Good post!
Most rich people are pretty tight and ruthless when it comes to money! No way they will pay top $$$ even if they are buying a luxury home. Sure it won't be cheap by the standards of most people but you can bet that if they do buy something it will be cheap by their own standards and definitely cheap compared to what the dumbarse vendor expected to get for it! So yes prices will trend down overall even at the top end of the market.
Its natural...however you should not assume people that have money are necessarily financially literate.
Take West Hollywood in Los Angleles, many think buying is a great property investment and it held up as an icon of wealth internationally. However those truely wealthly in Califonia do not buy there because it is not a robust market...because many that buy in are actors, sporting or celebrity class who often only have a high income for a relatively short period of time and come unstuck.
You can't apply normal economics to the situation even with the economic literate, here is a couple of examples in the public domain:
Hank Polson, ex Fed chief...just sold his Washington DC home for a million dollars less than he purchased it for a few years back. (something like 3.5 million down to 2.5 million) Suspect that given he was worth 700 million last reported...he was prepared to take the hit rather than investing more time and energy...
Nouriel Roubin, an economist who crops up alot, actually forcasting continued falls in the property market in the US, just purchased a new apartment in central manhattan for 5.5 million, still has his old apartment which has been on the market 18mth priced at 1.6 million. Wonder what his rational is...because he can? :-)
As a remote under populated and relatively safe country New Zealand provide peace, relaxation, a natural environment, social and political stability. In the current and upcoming worldwide situation millions of rich(er) people from all over the world are seeking such conditions. A safe heaven - regulated by the immigration department and in personal interests of most parliamentarians the property market will never fail here in New Zealand. I’m of the view that Real Estate is doing reasonable fine in 2011. The sale out of New Zealand continuous – so does increasingly Kiwi tenants. Foreigners in our own country - HA !
This report, taken as read, reflects no more than the top tier property market in New Zealand, it is totally unrelated to the general property market, so don't try to relate it in anyway, it an't applicable.
Also realise it has its own dynamic which is hard to understand unless you mix in these circles. I don't in New Zealand however have until recently been been closer to the same circle dynamic in another international city...and realise it as complicated as the people that are part of it.
@ Nicholas Arrand .. in answer to your question .. it would take a long thesis to answer you fully .. but in short .. while there is a lot of generalising going on .. I'm responding to your comment regarding the Eastern Suburbs of AK in particular where one scenario could be all 50 properties were deceased estates and all were sold at prices below market in which case all the buyers will consider they have obtained a bargain and have already gained a paper profit .. another scenario could be a case of a row of dominoes where the first (the most expensive) one sold to a committed buyer and the seller wanted to shift down which triggered 50 similar trade-down transition sales where all the sellers didn't want to leave themselves exposed with $10m properties and shifted down to $6m properties (just example prices) .. thus less exposure .. and yes they expect to hold value in the long run .. as we are specifically talking about St Heliers, Kohimarama, Mission Bay etc my view is they won't lose much value if at all under any circumstances in any future apocalypse .. I have a number of reasons for that view .. I posted an item back in October 2010 discussing 20+ year old chinese students buying streets full of $2m+ properties in Melbourne and leaving them vacant .. which has overtones of money laundering .. (do you think that isn't happening in auckland? where AUD $2m buys NZD $3m) another scenario could be every one of the 50 sales were forced mortgagee in posession sales in which case all the buyers would be smiling .. (nb: I didnt look at the report) .. the reality is a pot-pouri combination of each of the above ..
There is a price for everyting, iconoclast. It doesn't mean that the buyers are right! It might just be that the sellers as right. Take Kerry Packer selling his family TV station ( "That's one thing I'll never sell") to Alan Bond; who then subsequently went broke ,and Kerry bought it back for 10% of the Bond sale price. Eastern suburbs property may just be the same. We don't know. But the artrcle we both refer to ( and I haven't read it either! Just that post by BD that I take as correct) notes that there have been a number of high priced sales - for whatever reason. I don't blindly subscribe to the view that 'the buyers are right, and the sellers wrong'. Regardless; whatever anyone wants to pay for their home is their prerogative. My issue with property in New Zealand is the culture of 'get rich' out of it. It's an illusion if you don't both buy....and sell; and borrowing to 'sell to yourself' to maitain a property portfolio is just debt accummuation that this country can ill afford.
On the contrary Speckles. When the wealthy collectively spend hundreds of millions of dollars on residential property in just a few suburbs then the rest of the market must note the fact carefully.
The wealthy -who must be greatly admired for their acumen and foresight - will continue to spend up big and for very good reason .
They have faith in the system.
It also tells the unbelievers that they are just plain wrong and the wealthy have been right all along.
The wealthy got there by being smarter than the whingers.
Those who complain are driven by foaming envy, able only to curse the fates that doomed them to be wage slaves for life.
Hey Big Daddy : A comment from one of the real estate agents in that front page of the Dominion story ( "we are stuffed's house" , I think it is ) , was that the $ 5 million plus segment of the real estate market [ Wellington ] was unaffected by the global financial crisis . They noted that " I.T. " professionals were chugging along merrily as if nothing had changed .
........... That indicates to me that a disconnect in the market has occurred , between the plebian battlers on struggle street , and the upwardly mobile on the fast track .
........ Any ideas on that ?
Our very own Vesuvius! What value any land in or near Auckland even after a period of minor volcanic quake activity. What message is being sent from the South Island...!
From the time of the first shake you can expect sales to drop. Several shakes and factor in deep concern....serious market changing trends......
Auckland property must be THE bubble in this country. There is no friggin way the EQC funds could fix a change in attitude to land and since such activity can be long lasting, as Christchurch is showing, expect the reinsurance options to close down quickly.
In Christchurch the much promised buried dams will be seen as spin soon because said 'dams' cannot be built while the faultlines continue to move. Have you seen any digging going on?
On the mortgagee sales front in the Coromandel in December 2010:
98 Tangitarori Lane, Pauanui went for $550,500 at mortgagee .
Previously sold in 2005 for $850,000.
Current CV, $900,000.
38 Hahei Beach Road, Hahei went for $520,000
Previously sold in 2007 for $695,000.
Current CV, $640,000.
And what did the agent say about the auction result?...
"A great day had by all."
http://unconditional.co.nz/mikeharper/2010/12/18/xmas-newsletter-good-bye-2010/
Average 31% loss on purchase price, Kate.... The auctioneer was right! It was a "good day" for all; for no matter what the loss, it will pale into insignificance to what the loss would have been in the not to distant future. Whoever has to bear this loss ( probably Mum and Dad investors, somewhere), it iwill be a case of a 'the first loss, is the best loss' scenario. Now; whether it remains 'good buying' for the new owners? - I have no doubts......
I've changed my mind. I was thinking that houses would stagnate in price and would stay that way until incomes rise to a much higher level (years)
I now think that house prices will drop as NZ is not doing as well as predicted, the first baby boomers are at retirement age and the cost of living is going up.
I have been spending the last few days driving down the East Coast Bays road from Takapuna to Orewa and back and it seems there is a lot of property on the market whereever you look. Is this the normal amount of houses on the market for this time of the year or is it extraordinary.Has anyone got on any thoughts on this. My wife's relations from Sydney think there is more than usual as they both grew up and worked in the Takapuna/Milford area and they do not remember so much being on the market.
"Many a true word spoken in Jest"...At the moment even Arkasas is vibrating with earthquake activity.The Pacific rim is humming as well..and Their was an Earthquake in Britain yesterday.Poland etc something is going on...As far as Christchurch goes,and anywhere else in NZ goes,"Build for an 8 on the shake scale".Because?... we a well overdue for a big one,and with all the present activity,it would be wise to be prudent.
Plenty been on the market for ages...have a look at Mt Maunganui for starters. Whats on the market, the rubbish - town houses, half sections, apartments, houses in crap locations. And theres lots of them. Price has come down, but people still holding out. Whats selling, full sections in good locations...people still wanting to much, but there is still the odd victim out there who are cutting their asking prices. Contrary to popular belief, a good time to buy if it's going to be your home and if you hunt out the victims. Appears to be a liitle bit of life at the top end of the market, albeit a bit on the slow side.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.