Auckland's biggest real estate agency group, Barfoot and Thompson, has reported it sold 668 properties in November, which was up 19.1% from October, but down 22.5% from November a year ago.
It reported its average sale price of NZ$553,743 was up 5.7% from NZ$524,004 in October, but was basically flat (up 0.6%) from NZ$550,217 in November a year ago.
About a third of all property sales in New Zealand are in Auckland and Barfoots has around 40% market share in Auckland. Its figures are closely watched because they are the first sales figures to emerge for November. The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand is expected to release national property sales figures next week.
“This is the highest average monthly price for nearly three years and it is attributable to a greater level of high value sales in the inner ring of suburbs around the central business district, and along the eastern coastal suburbs,” said Peter Thompson, Managing Director of Barfoot & Thompson.
“In November we sold 55 homes valued at more than $1 million, and 122 homes valued at more than $750,000. More than a quarter of our sales were at the high value end, a far greater percentage than is normal," Thompson said.
“While high value sales have pushed the average price up, what it underlines is the confidence people have in Auckland property in the medium term," he said.
Several banks have been trimming some fixed mortgage rates recently in an attempt to breathe some life into the housing market.
This came after REINZ figures for October showed just 3,903 properties were sold in October, the lowest October total since REINZ records started in 1992. The volumes were only slightly above the all-time record low for any month of 3,666 hit in January this year and was down 36% from October a year ago.
However, Realestate.co.nz reported surge of new listings in November and First National reported sales picked up in the second half of November as banks had loosened their lending criteria.
More soon
Here is the full release below from Barfoot and Thompson.
Greater activity in high value properties in well established locations pushed up the average sale price for Auckland homes in November to $553,743. At the same time house sales volumes at 668 were up 19.1 percent on those for October, but still down on the numbers traditionally sold at this time of the year.
“This is the highest average monthly price for nearly three years and it is attributable to a greater level of high value sales in the inner ring of suburbs around the central business district, and along the eastern coastal suburbs,” said Peter Thompson, Managing Director of Barfoot & Thompson.
“In November we sold 55 homes valued at more than $1 million, and 122 homes valued at more than $750,000. “More than a quarter of our sales were at the high value end, a far greater percentage than is normal.
“While high value sales have pushed the average price up, what it underlines is the confidence people have in Auckland property in the medium term.
“The volume of sales across the region has started to build, in part through vendors and buyers reaching agreement as to what is market value, and also through the lift which normally occurs as we move through Spring into Summer. However, sales are not as strong as in past years.
“For the past six months the number of homes sold each month has moved from a high of 689 to a low of 561.
“It is unusual for the number of homes sold to move in such a narrow band over such a long period, and while these sales numbers are down on last year, they demonstrate that the market is stable.”
During the month Barfoot & Thompson listed 1639 properties for sale, up 17.4 percent on October, and the highest number since March.
At month end its total listings were 6179, up 5.4 percent on the month previously.
Rentals
Property rentals continued their steady increase, with the average weekly rent increasing by $2 to $411. This was achieved across 729 new rentals. “Each month for the past four months the average weekly rental has increased, and there remains a strong demand for rental accommodation,” said Mr Thompson.
Note to editors
Last month, we reported the average weekly rent at $417, when it should have been $409. This occurred as a result of miscalculations associated with the introduction of the new GST rate. We apologise for this error.
Barfoot Auckland
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142 Comments
"More than a quarter of our sales were at the high value end, a far greater percentage than is normal," So. Ya reckon 'they' are selling because they see prices rising from here?!
NB: SK ~ I'm a renter, and you're right, 2011 is looking really positive. Those top end properties are going to be fabulous buying in a few months time.
We've just signed up to rent an awesome new luxury house in Nelson for $600 per week. It cost $1.2M to build a couple of years ago = 2.6% gross yield
Owners are having to relocate and have been trying to sell it for the last 8 months with no luck. So now they're having to rent it and hope the market picks up in a year.
So maybe Auckland high end market is picking up but many other parts of the country are still pretty sick.
I'm still extremely happy renting .... can rent a house 2x more expensive than I could afford to buy :)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40260336 read it you tard
from your article link -
"And they're paying top dollar to rent.In Manhattan the demand for high-end rentals has never been hotter. In the third quarter of 2010 there were 200 new leases signed for rentals charging $10,000 a month and up, more than double the 89 leases signed the year before"
If the masses are selling and going renting, it put's downward pressure on house prices, but also upwards pressure on rent prices. Until X meets Y and it becomes cheaper to own, and around it goes again. Constantly switching sides is like chasing rainbows....
But hey, what would us 'tards' know!....
Renting anything is cheaper in the short term, doesn't matter if it's a car, boat or house, and that's the way it should be.
Owning is cheaper in the long term, just ask someone who has owned their house for 20 years what their current mortgage payments are compared to what it would rent for....
I'd disagree, Murray ( funny, that!). I'd suggest that renting anything, should cost more than owning it. ( witness a taxi ride to the airport versus the same trip in your car) Getting the use of anothers assets, and leaving them with the costs and risks should always cost more, not less. That's why I see prices of property falling. Rents should be higher versus owning, and they will be, but not nominally ( ~ as people only have so much disposable cash and they can't borrow to rent) , but comparatively. Rents will be static ( absent general pay rises), prices will fall.
Read my post again, NA! I did say renting costs more - in the long term.
Well, OK, I actually said "Owning is cheaper in the long term" but it means the same thing!...
Whenever I'm overseas I rent cars, hotel rooms, use taxis etc because for short term use it's cheaper than buying all those things. At home, I own my house, car etc because renting those things long term would be prohibitively expensive.
Some of my rentals the mortgage costs around $100/week and they now rent for around $350/week. Funny thing is, at the time, people were telling me I was crazy to buy... renting was the better option, apparently!....
I used to rent a nice old house in one of the best streets in town (not Auckland) at $700/wk, a dairy farmer bought it for $1,550,000 while we were living in it. Gross yield of 2.3%.
You get higher yields in the lower end of the market I would assume, but if you want to live in an awesome house you can't beat renting at the moment.
SK your comments are naive.
The smart money has been out for years now and is sitting on cash and gold. Those at the top end generally know how to protect their assets.
But others with half a brain are getting out while the going is still half good and their are still a few suckers around. Unfortunately I have to say I was in this group, although was still in early enough to do okay.
By the time the masses figure it out it will be too late.
Like Sunny Nelson I rent a coastal property north of AK and the yield on this place would be less than 2%. I probably couldn't afford to buy this place, but soon will be able to:)
Yes fair call by Bernard below and I apologise SK.
You are probably right about capitalising on a falling market, but there is more to it than that.
Primary concern is protecting my assets less than motivation to get rich. Why would I sit on something I know is going to devalue by 40%. Yes my cash might devalue, but not as bad as a house will.
Call it common sense also. Why should I not profit from the greed of others, the ones that thought negative gearing was the way to go because property always goes up doesn't it? I didn't mortgage myself to the eyeballs, taking out loans against my property to go on holidays or buy a car. I didn't help create the bubble, so why should I stand by and let it's collapse devastate my equity.
Nassim Taleb points out that when asset markets work for the good of the majority, people always put it down to good judgement and decision making. When the markets work against them, it's always attributed to bad luck or factors beyond their control.
Particularly with the opiate for the masses--property--I don't think there has been a better expression of this.
Is that's you making all that noise at nights, Scarfie?
and i thought it was only me renting a coastal property just north of AK with the rent being paid for by the interest on the sale of my house in '06 showing me 150% profit!
SK..you haven't made one post here today that makes any sense so we can safely assume you have no basis to comment.....or do you?
Ah, the one and only Richard Hugh McCaw. Deservedly IRB player of the year once again. But according to a cheesy TV advert he's also a house builder. So perhaps we should get him in for a Double Shot Christov to discuss the housing market and how to play the ball and the man?!
Good spot Gareth......Just to get him on the chair to discuss anything ...will increase your hits tenfold and be seen as quite a coup.
I think if you cracked the shell behind the shy unassuming McCaw you would find a very focused pragmatic individual.
Hold fire on the offer of a Jaffa latte though..... I think minced frog is the flavour he would savour.
BTW, the picture in this article is the house at corners of St Stephen Ave and Gladstone Road - it has been for sale for over a year and still for sale.. It's been thru' just about every single RE agency in Auckland - B&T must has it for the fourth time now... Is this some kind of back hand advertising via inetrest.co.nz?????
Doesn't that particular property have a heritage listing on it? I seem to remember it does. if so, that would put a lot of people off buying it as making any changes to it would be difficult as would subdividing the land, and there's plenty of it around that house. Didn't all the neighbours jump up and down about that just recently? The road is very busy as well, another negative. So it’s not your typical high end property.
Has also been on the rental market for a while too, me a few friends were looking and even with us being hardly ideal tennants for a high value property (eight twenty-somethings) the owners were still keen to hand over the keys! unfortunately sanity prevailed and we passed on it...
let's be real here!
bareface and thompson are just grasping at straws here by trying to spin up a pathetic set of figures...according to them they sold 668 properties in November, which was up 19.1% from October, but down 22.5% from November a year ago.!
Sept/Oct figures were the worst spring real estate figures since records were kept by REINZ (or was it QV,) since 1992..so we're coming off a very low base here...and they're crowing about being up 19% on a mega-crap October and still down 22.5% from this time last year when we were in an even worse recessive economy...bloody morons..oops!
Rob
B&T is using wordsmithing practice of a typical Wall Street analyst. So any data from them has to be read the same as said "analysis" on Wall Street. Analyst will never list a stock as "Sell". Instead they say "hold". In this case the B&T equivalent of OH S#iT WERE ALL F"CKD SELL SELL SELL!!! is the cleaver use of the term "FLAT". It fact it’s not even flat, it is negative 2.4%!!! In fact you can use it as an acronym Like all the figures used in our report were derived using our new FLAT software (Fictitiously Lax Arithmetic Treatment)
Once you know the rules the “Read Between The Lines” game it’s quite fun!!!
If the real estate agent's blurb says : " Compact house with olde world charm and water features , ease of access to arterial route , friendly neighbourhood " .............. Read between the lines , and you got a dilapidated shoe-box , stuck in a swamp , next to the bloody motorway , with the Mongrel Mob on one side of you , and Black Power on the other .
First National yesterday were also trying incredibly hard to spin a turd into gold, as you would expect from desperate agents.
“Sun, less stringent loan criteria and pent up need to relocate were cited as reasons by both groups."
First National have approx 60 offices around NZ, and only 2 are showing a significant pickup. Doesn't sound very positive overall.
It was also very interesting that BH used the most positive sentence from the First National report for the title of his story yesterday, whereas First National's own title and story was much more gloomy.
Interest.co.nz report title
First National sees housing market recovery light 'switched on' in second half of Novemberverses First National's report title
Prices and confidence main barriers for property buyersBernard - you haven't been turned to the Dark Side have you!!!
SK, stratified index values 2007 for Auckland = 3635.8, currently 3347.1, we would need prices to rise 8.7% to get back to where we were in 2007 in nominal terms.
Inflation means its more likely 12% or more just to break even.
If you sold your mansion in 2007 you'd be able to buy a similar property back today and have $120,000 tax free gain from shorting the market over this period (assuming $1 mill house).
Better yet, most people would have put that $1 million to work in other asset classes that had not had a bubble, a mere 7% gain p.a over this period would see them an extra 225k better off, I know a lot of people (one in particular VERY well) that has more than doubled their money invested in 2008 in ASX shares.
People with weak arguements use exceptions (e.g i know a house that sold for this and then just now sold for that), the only way to make any claims is to use large data sets that smooth out any outlying examples.
Simon - if you are interested in smoothing out shorterm blips in data - why are you giving examples of selling property in 2007 and investing in ASX in 2008?
Property is a long term game - and has been demonstrably stable over what has apparently been the worst recession in decades.
"....Simon - if you are interested in smoothing out shorterm blips in data - why are you giving examples of selling property in 2007 and investing in ASX in 2008?"
Nothing wrong with that as one example of asset reallocation, and, a profitable one at that ".....Property is a long term game - and has been demonstrably stable over what has apparently been the worst recession in decades." Residential and commercial property hasn't bottomed yet in this country.... the cycles are long I think you will agree........ and, values are still high by whatever metric you care to use in terms of making a decision. The poor sods in the criminal scheme linked below will not agree with you on property price stability at all - they bought for $552k sold for $225k excluding the add on costs. Property never goes down some say, SK would you have advised them (if they could) to hang on a bit longer to make the anticipated gain. http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/4419738/Blue-Chip-investors-lose-in-Supreme-CourtI would advise them to use their own lawyer and accountant.
It's been a sad saga thats for sure - however I dont see this as an example of willing buyers and sellers - ie 'a market' - due to the predatory pressure and deceitful hard selling techniques.
Although some will say - this simply preys on existing greed - so tough luck - I'm on the fence on this one.
HAVE any of you BAGGERS spent ANY TIME going through open homes or have ATTENDED ANY Auctions in POPULAR areas in AUCKLAND the last few months
THEY ARE ALL FULL .PEOPLE WANT TO BUY . THERE IS PLENTY OF PENT UP DEMAND FOR GOOD PROPERTY IN GOOD LOCATIONS JUST NOT FOR THE CRAP THE POOR PEOPLE ARE BEING FORCED TO OFFLOAD IN LOWER SOCIAL ECONOMIC AREAS . CAUS IT IS IN THOSE AREAS WHICH HAVE FELT THE BRUNT OF THE RECCESION . THIS IS THE WHY THE BULK OF LISTING ARE IN RUBISH PARTS OF TOWN .
SALES are LOW because there is very few QUALITY propeties FOR SALE in PLACES where people who HAVE MONEY want to live . NOT ONLY just in INNER CITY locations . EVEN THE NICE OUTER SUBURBS there is SHORTAGE OF GOOD STOCK
PLENTY of people still have MONEY in AUCKLAND . LOTS OF US still have good SECURE WELL PAYING PROFESSIONAL JOBS and STILL get year on year PAY INCREASES even in a ECONOMIC DOWNTURN and if PROPERTY goes down then WHO CARES if you are not forced to sell and LIKE where you live then what does it matter having a PAPER LOSS.
AUCKLAND PROPERTY COLLASPE IS IS ALL MEDIA SPIN AND AUCKLAND GETS LUMPED IN WITH THE REST OF COUNTRY
POOR AREAS WILL GET HURT AS THERE VALUES DECLINE FROM BEING CURRENTLY OVERVALUED COMPARED TO THE LOW WAGE OF THERE DEMOGRAPHICS
DEMAND IS FOR GOOD PROPERTY IN GOOD SAFE LOCATIONS
PEOPLE WITH MONEY ARE HAPPY TO PAY FOR WHAT THEY WANT AND DONT REALLY CARE IF THEY PAY A BIT MORE T
AGREE THAT IT IS HARD FOR YOUNG FIRST HOME BUYERS AND SINGLE PEOPLE . BUT RENTING WILL BECOME JUST AS HARD SHORTLY
FOR TWO PEOPLE EARNING ABOVE THE MEDIAN INCOME PROPERTY IS NOT THAT EXPENSIVE for ENTRY LEVEL GOOD SUBURB 400-500K
THE LONG TERM TREND IS UP
AUCKLAND IS GOOD
THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IS STUFFED CAUSE NO GOOD JOBS
WHERE IS WOLLY
Yep! i went to over 150+ open homes in the last 12 months. I have plenty of objective evidence showing that the price trends in many Auckland neighborhoods are trending DOWN!. So I can attest that you’re wrong both on paper and in the streets. The only reason I bought is that I didn’t want to wait to see the market dip another 6% and then not have the money when the Ozzy housing market pops and credit dries up. Besides when the market pops I’ll refinance my short term rates for better ones since I’m already locked in! So the 6% is a wash…
BTW - The caplocks doesn’t make you anymore correct ether.
Nobody would disagree that the lower end less desireable property will always feel the price drops first in a downturn. The people at the lower end of the wealth scale are obviously going to crumble before the guys at the top.
And I think you're right about there not being much quality stock on the market. Its the same where I live. But the obvious reason for that is that the wealthy people that own those quality houses dont want to put their house up for sale when the market is weak. So part of whats holding the market up is a lack of supply and I think thats shown by a lack of listings through spring.
The upper end will fall if given enough time and exposure to a downturn.
Long term trend is up? Hmm not so sure about that one. B&T said they sold a lot of high end properties.. they didn't say they were showing an increase in values. It could just as easily mean that the vendors finally realised after 2 years on the market that they're going to have to accept less than what the initially wanted.
It'll be an interesting summer ahead for the property market, and interesting to see how long the upper end of the property market holds out.
I have been looking to buy on the North Shore since the begining of the year. Attended an auction last week, not a single bid, house was nice and in a good area, but the auctioneer started at one million where the punters were thinking around 800k.
At least on the North Shore, this IS the Auckland story.
The other trend is the number of properties sitting on the market and not moving, I reckon at least 25% up from previous years.
Hush , Walter ! The guys are having some fun ......... We'll get back to productive activities tomorrow ............ on no , that's Saturday ....... Monday then , we'll get onto manufacturing something on Monday ........... Or when the manager from the Ozzie banks calls for his munny back . ................. Now , back to the property industry .............
Hey Walter......the loan availability for start up or expansion or even an extension to an
overdraft without further home mortgage as security is the root of our current small business problems.
Currently I am lending to three small to medium business's who were unable to secure a loan from their friendly banker.
While at a favourable interest rate to me.....I could not for the life of me understand why ...with a bit of research and due diligence the banks could not have seen the equity in the business.
I am pleased to say that so far I have had no problems and three years has passed...I get the option to renew or decline at the end of each one year term...further to reset the rates accordingly.
I am sure a lot of people would agree with you out there ....but the capital to start is just so damn hard to access.
The government certainly can be blamed for not giving more incentives to production (manufacturing). But like bankers, parliamentarians they are part of our culture. So, education and information work are the key for necessary changes. As I told e.g. the NZMEA many times the media plays an important role and should be used more frequently to change our culture behaviour – a comprehensive start for a balanced economy.
Can you and the Count take your production/manufacturing malarky somewhere else .................. We're here to discuss the nation's obssession , houses .
Try John Walley and the less rude guy at the NZMEA , if you really must waste your time with productive endeavours . They're onto all that manufacturing and business stuff .
............. now ........... where were we ? ........... houses , yeah ! ...............
Sadly you are right Kunst, it reflects on the New Zealand obsession with property.
Interest.co.nz is no better. On the home page today, 4 of the 9 articles at the top of the window are directly about property, with another 1-2 indirectly related.
Bernard, if your eyes haven't glazed over by the time you've scrolled down to this part. A small brickbat .....................why not a link to this story below on your web sight (apologies if you have already).
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/4420429/NZ-share-market-at-…
"New Zealand Share Market At Risk of Extinction"
It is a reminder as to why NZ is the way it is, with it's property obsession. The punters were ripped off in the 80's in the sharemarket here and it's been a slow death spiral since. Residential property has understandably looked to be the only alternative for long term saving for many Kiwis since then and the more recent finance company ponzi failures will reinforce this view even more. The consequence has been longterm business underperformance and Australia pulling away from us.
YES YOU WILL
It will be those who are HIGHLY LEVERAGED and find themselves in NEGATIVE EQUITY and there OWN PERSONAL CERCUMSTANCES will dictate whether they CAN SUPPORT there OUTGOINGS
THESE ARE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE NORM LOTS OF PEOPLE ARE DOING FINE LIKE THE 177 HOUSEHOLDS who just PAID over 750K for the PROPERTY THAT THEY WANT TO LIVE IN
Because:
"Ireland's economic miracle was driven by Germany. Under Labour, ours is being gifted by Communist China. The Germans sent money, the Chinese are sending people."
Gareth Morgan: Labours third World Solution
I wonder how many of the 177 have large loans on their purchases. Not too many I hope as the economy continues to tighten up, more people lose their jobs and houses continue to drop in value. Ask any retailer just how good things are out there. It is far from great and now the farmers are facing drought conditions. Everyone I meet is cutting back on christmas expenses and are trying to get money in the bank and /or pay down debt.
Just keep denying Sk what the majority of NZers are experiencing right now fiscally and it will go away and get better in a flick of an eye lid. And Australia is not much better if you read their business news. Retail could even be worse. Any interest rate increases in NZ will be crippling for the ecomony so the longer the better before they kick in.
2007 prices are irrelevant unless you were unlucky/stupid enough to buy after 2004, those with any clues could see that the boom/bubble was unsustainable and were waiting for the inevitable. Personally I have sold two properties since March, the first took a while, lots of interest but all looking for a bargain, sold in March to a cash buyer for slightly less than I wanted, only came out with $100+,000. Second one was snapped up for my asking price when I put it on the market in September, keerching, keerching another $120k.
The property market is not worth a rats rrrrrs so take my advice and stay renting.
at least till I have picked through the rotting carcass
It's Friday...YAY.....and you know what that means ...time for your Friday smile.
DEDICATED TO BANKERS AND R.E.AGENTS (<:}
BOB THE BANKER & THE BLONDE R.E. AGENT. Bob walked into a sports bar around 9:58 PM. He sat down next to a blonde at the bar And stared up at the TV. The 10 PM news was coming on. The news crew was covering the story Of a man on the ledge of a large building Preparing to jump. The blonde looked at Bob and said, "Do you think he'll jump?" Bob said, "You know, I bet he'll jump." The blonde replied, "Well, I bet he won't." Bob placed a $20 bill on the bar and said, "You're on!" Just as the blonde placed her money on the bar, The guy on the ledge Did a swan dive off the building, Falling to his death. The blonde was very upset, But willingly handed her $20 to Bob. "Fair's fair. Here's your money." Bob replied, "I can't take your money. I saw this earlier on the 5 PM news, So I knew he would jump." The blonde replied, "I did, too, But I didn't think he'd do it again." Bob took the money.
Post by Steve Keen on "Son Of Wallis" competition has links to other bloggers like Delusional Economics and Houses and Holes . Interesting back catalogue of posts on the Delusional Economics web site.
SK you ask about the empty houses, well you can see it in sections.
I remember reading in the Herald two years back that we had a five year supply of residential sections available, and that was assuming demand at the current rate.
Get outside of Auckland and you can see it. Warkworth must have 200 or so despite having a population of only 3000. Keep going up the coast to Mangawhai and Ruakaka and you can see them there all empty. Have been for a couple of years now. Wellsford has perhaps 100 sections also, with a town of 2000 and shrinking now that Irwin Industrial have gone.
Price wise I know people in RE in Whangarei. Sales are right down and places that would have sold for 450K even a year and a half ago can't get offers in the low 300's. That is Bernards 30% already, with worse to come.
I think you are quite right that there is a glut of sections (speculative subdivisions and the like) - that is quite different than thousands of new empty houses though isnt it?
ie - I have invested in land that no one else wants - and also built a house on it - that noone wants = a lot worse.
This is as you say 'outside of auckland' which is outside my personal area of interest - I take your point of course.
You may not have done, SK, but a lot of people did. Who do you think owns all that spec. stuff north of the bridge? And when they can't sell the stuff, what do they do to make ends meet if they have to? That's right, sell what is moving...Auckland, hoping that they can get out of the stuff without a loss ( or even a loss!) in due course
New construction levels are low because...the mass builders know they can't sell their produce at a profit! That means they see poor selling conditions, for them, for the next 18 months ~ about their lead time from start to sale. We over-built during the 'boom' times , and those completions haven't beeb absorbed yet. That will keep a lid on prices, and urgent demand.
Are they? You might be putting, or trying to put, yours up. But I asked my landlord's agent as recently as last week ( just to keep an eye on things) if he expected my rent to rise from $650 p/w when my lease is up in January. He laughed, "I can guarantee you that it won't be going up". He mentioned something about the new student loan/allowance conditions that had cut his expectations of that market returning next year, that is going to leave him with about 30 spare units in this block alone.
Apparently yes:
Rentals
Property rentals continued their steady increase, with the average weekly rent increasing by $2 to $411. This was achieved across 729 new rentals.
“Each month for the past four months the average weekly rental has increased, and there remains a strong demand for rental accommodation,” said Mr Thompson.
Well I leave that with you. But you did make me go and see what my agent was on about re student loans. Here it is! Look nasty ......
http://www.studylink.govt.nz/documents/brochures/budget-2010-student-loan-changes.pdf
From B&T numbers you can deduce that the median / typical house price in AKL will be significantly down on Nov last year. Will be interesting to see REINZ median prices for Nov.
If the median was the same as last year and "a far greater percentage than is normal" were over $750K then the average should have done a massive jump, but it didn't. Therefore there must have been a big drop in typical / low end house prices to offset the "far greater percentage than is normal," of sales over $750K
o.k Fashionistas..here's a titbit of a factoid re the OZ banks:
Did you know that National Australia Bank [ASX: NAB] had to borrow USD$4.5 billion from the US Federal Reserve during 2008 and 2009.
And Westpac Banking Corp [ASX: WBC] needed USD$1.09 billion in January of 2008 and 2009.
What's that, you don't know anything about it? And you don't remember reading about it?
There's a simple reason for that. It's been top secret information until yesterday morning.
That's right, if it wasn't for the passing of controversial legislation in the United States and your old mate ROTN, you'd never have found out about NAB and Westpac's Federal Reserve bail outs.
Now, you see how the plot thickens Christ-.stove?
anyway, it 's friday and it'll soon be time for the team to swing on by and take me out for a round of problem drinking....send in the clones, theres gotta be clones...don't bother ,they're here!!
And here's a useful blog from Alistair Helm over at Unconditional on what he's seeing on the website, particularly in terms of email inquiries to agents.
Well worth a look.
http://unconditional.co.nz/blog/are-we-seeing-some-signs-of-improvement-in-the-property-market/
2010 clearly reflects the extent of the lackluster property market this year, with much lower levels of email enquiries. Whilst showing a tailing off in the past few weeks (which is only to be expected from a seasonal perspective), the tracking of 2010 does show a certain degree of relative strength, especially through that key period of late October through to mid November.
The traditional lead time from email enquiry to property transaction would based on these strong periods, give sufficient time to complete transactions pre-Christmas. This might bode well for the sale figures for November and December, this then ties back into the recent rise in mortgage approvals.
Classically we will have to wait to see if what we are seeing is a true trend or just a short term blip. What is certain is that we are seeing some key indicators begin to point to a brighter outlook. I am certainly not going to call it a resurgent market quite yet!
And here's Tony Alexander's take on housing and deleveraging
http://www.bnz.co.nz/static/www/docs/weekly-overview/w2010-12-02.pdf
There is zero sign that householders are taking advantage of still low interest rates by borrowing extra
money. In fact in seasonally adjusted terms in October there was zero growth in household debt.
On average over the previous 12 months monthly debt growth was 0.17% so the change is not huge, but it is important in that it shows an improving labour market is not translating into improving willingness to borrow money.
This is correlated with if not largely driven by continuing weakness in the residential real estate and
retailing sectors – and long may it last.
cheers
Bernard
Considering the Mess the USA, the EU and Japan are in, I think NZ deserves some of the 'lucky country" label....we have not to bad un-employment, not to bad debt, yes a stagnent residential housing market which is way better than what the USA is going through...
We are still exporting....yes OK its ticking along less well than many want but considering the dire straights some are in.....thank god im here...
regards
It's been pointed out previously that, during the bubble days, NZ bubble fans used to shout "Where the USA goes, we follow!", yet after the bubble first began to collapse there the same NZ bubble fans angrily sputtered "It can't happen here, we're different!"...
The worst is still to come, and as usual NZ is lagging behind...Those of you desperately trying to convince yourselves that the worst is over and things are going to get better soon are in for a nasty shock.
I agree Steven
Brian Gaynor puts things in perspective with Ireland (who has the same population size)
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10691868
Steven you are dreaming. I have mates who are in retail and they say the last two months are the worst they have endured in twenty years or so. Remember a big percentage of NZers are employed by retail and other small businesses such as builders and alike who I know are laying of people currently. Somehow we need to turn around the current malaise in the country and it is only sensible spending that will do that. People are only just coping with their cost of living expenses including mortgage payments and rent.Look at the values of coastal properties are discussed in todays NZ Herald and where they have fallen. That does not happen in a healthy economy.
Random observation
I follow the NZ stock exchange as I have shares
In relation to the other major exchanges around the world (US,UK,Asia) whenever there is a large rally and the DOW and others go up, NZ exchange tends to drop a few-15 points. Whenever the major exchanges around the world goes down NZ does the opposite and goes up.
I am sure the knowledgable bloggers out there have a good explaination :) (maybe linked to the curency?)
PS> I'm not still awake worrying about house prices :)
Did you see the commentary today , by Bernard Doyle of GSJB Were ? The NZX is rapidily disconnecting from the rest of the world . The lack of IPO's is causing a stagnation . The NZX is dying !
It is becoming free from overseas influence , and reacting daily to the net combination of its own good and bad news .
When the ASX and the SGX proposed a merger , do you think they gave the NZX a thought ............... Be buggered if they'd bother !
[ Good to meet someone else who owns shares , too . ]
The terms " Alte and option arm" are about to hit the American default scene.It appears that after the sub prime meltdown...the pain is only about a third of the way through...These are the safer loans that were lent at teaser rates of one percent ..even before the true rate is falling due, the defaults due to the downward trend of the American economy are getting to be enormous.We might be looking at a total failure of the economic system.As the true effect of the global Ponzi scheme gathers pace.
SK enjoyed when you said if you'd bought Herne Bay cliff in 2007 you'd be ahead now. From someone who's just sold in the area, I believe top end Herne Bay is off 20%. Just take a drive along Marine Parade and properties are sitting for months and quietly go off the market to come on with another agent. Barfoots sold a property in Sarsfield in Sept/Oct for around $5MM that first stated closer to $7MM. Bayleys sold a recevership on Marine Pde for around $4.6MM when the adjoining unit got $7MM a year earlier. Many exaamples around HB and St Marys bay where expectations were for $3MM and getting $2.4MM - $2.6MM. Things are sick so don't tell me water views and smart addresses are a buffer to what is really happening in the market.
An somewhere in a parallel universe.... comments the same, different voices.
Ged my guess is SK is a stressed out agent in Auckland who has not sold a property for sometime and is desparate to try and keep the PI industry alive when in fact it is dying by the day. Farming and coastal vaues have plummetted. Housing values will not drop as dramaticially as they are a necessity but they will continue to drop a little month by month over a period of several years and when you look back in years to come and add in inflation over that time people who only have a house that they live in out of necessity will be pleased to think that is all they own.
Great extra data from Barfoot and Thompson on sales volumes and prices in individual parts of Auckland.
http://www.barfoot.co.nz/Info/Market-Info/Analysis/November-2010-Market-Analysis.aspx
cheers to Barfoots for being open with the data.
Bernard
Thanks Bernard, that 22.5% decline in sales from a year ago is quite extraordinary and looking at the 'by area' data looks to be widespread, only one area (Sth Auck.) had a (marginal) year on year increase in sales volume. And '09 was sick as so how Barfoots can spin this result as a positive is beyond me.
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