Quotable Value (QV) says 2025 is likely to be "an intriguing year" for the housing market.
"The latest QV House Price Index shows that residential property values have once again increased slightly, edging upwards by an average of 1.3% nationally in the January quarter [Nov/Dec/Jan]," QV said in its first report of this year.
"The average home is now worth $913,567, which is just 1.3% less than the same time last year and 14.1% below the market's peak in late 2021," the report said.
"On the surface, we're seeing a continuation in 2025 of the overwhelmingly flat theme that we saw throughout much of last year," QV Operations Manager James Wilson said.
"This is to be expected given the economic factors at play - namely high interest rates and credit constraints, sustained weakness in the labour market and an oversupply of properties for sale."
"However, we are also seeing less home value reductions now, and what little growth there is does appear to be trending ever so slightly upward," he said.
"At the same time, mortgage rates are falling and property sales volumes are building, which could pave the way for more substantial growth later this year."
"That won't happen overnight of course, but we will be actively monitoring this space with interest, as I'm sure many sellers, buyers and investors will be throughout 2025," Wilson said.
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Didn't we just have this QV Dec 2024 data a few weeks ago?
"QV says average housing values declined by just 0.3% last year with prices remaining 'relatively static'"
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/131529/qv-says-average-housing-valu…
bbbbbut house prices are supposed to be falling!
Interesting they state high interest rates
This is to be expected given the economic factors at play - namely high interest rates
Does that mean they expect them to fall further than they currently are?
QV website tells a different story again, 1.2% increase over 3 months across NZ
so QV change is an index right - so not immediately reflect of recent unconditional sales?
and its based on all property listed, sold and unlisted?- rather than recent sales - so not that accurate over recent timeframe - oh OK
Therefore personally I am going to ignore this QV article and wait for the RE data
It looks like the wrong month's table (December) has been added to this article.
On QV's website release they show the January table.
Here's what they are saying about Auckland:
“January has tended to be a very quiet month, possibly due to the summer holidays. Reports from agents have been mixed – some say it is pretty dead, while others think it’s slowly picking up. We should have a better idea of the market by the end of February,” he said.
Should be Jan's table, they have December's table in the article.
Jan: https://content.quotablevalue.co.nz/media/images/SMALL_HPI_Graphic_Feb2…
That's interesting, there seems to be a big difference between QV and Barfoot.
Qv showing a 1.4% qtr growth in Auckland whereas,
by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 8:23am
Have we already forgotten about the leading Auckland RE latest release?
Barfoot's average selling price in January was $1,053,446, down $133,016 (-11.2%) compared to December, which was the lowest it has been in any month of the year since October 2020.
From memory the medium was down 50k?
More likely QV are reporting national data, and obviously BF is Auckland data mainly.
if you look at the little chart 3 areas are negative (and they re small population parts of NZ)
at the bottom of the chart the say 0.1% positive yet in article up 1.3%...
nothing matches
"The latest QV House Price Index shows that residential property values have once again increased slightly, edging upwards by an average of 1.3% nationally in the January quarter [Nov/Dec/Jan],"
I assume the 1.3% is for Auckland, but the article says nationally, quite confusing.
Edit: yes correct January's table shows 1.3%
I get it, their values are
theoretical values
not based on what people are actually paying (though their is likely a corelation) , will treat this data with that knowledge going forward.. see below
Auckland
All bar one of the Super City’s seven former local council areas recorded a small rise in average home value this quarter.
The largest gains occurred this quarter on the North Shore (2.6%), in Auckland’s central suburbs (1.8%) and in Manukau (1.8%). Papakura was the lone exception; its average home value reduced by 0.8% to $880,173.
Taken as a whole, the region’s average home value increased by 1.4% throughout the January quarter to $1,245,951 – up slightly from the 1.3% quarterly growth recorded back in December. The average home in the Auckland region is now worth 3.5% less than the same time last year, and 19.2% less than the market’s peak in late 2021. The one-month change was just 0.1%.
Local QV registered valuer Hugh Robson said activity levels still remained relatively low, despite there being a growing number of properties available for purchase.
“January has tended to be a very quiet month, possibly due to the summer holidays. Reports from agents have been mixed – some say it is pretty dead, while others think it’s slowly picking up. We should have a better idea of the market by the end of February,” he said.
Have we already forgotten about the leading Auckland RE latest release?
Barfoot's average selling price in January was $1,053,446, down $133,016 (-11.2%) compared to December, which was the lowest it has been in any month of the year since October 2020.
From memory the medium was down 50k?
What it means is that things are nowhere near as bad as certain people here would have us believe.
The QV HOUSE PRICE INDEX is the gold standard for measuring house price movements in New Zealand - over and above what any real estate agent (or anyone else) might happen to say.
TTP
RVs don't have any connection to sale prices..... Spruiker_101 unless they do....
They probably sold more cheap end houses so it's skewed.
Its never been skewed like this in the past? But I am glad you agree with me on this point, it means that anything above 1mil is struggling to sell...... I wonder if all normal the buyers are still at their beach bach's.
Barfoot's is a pretty big agency
OneRoof: Barfoot & Thompson comprises more than 80 branches, employs more than 1800 salespeople and, in what has become a highly competitive industry, has a 40% share of the Auckland residential real estate market.
For there data not to represent the wider market is statistically improbable. It means the other agency's will also be finding similar results.
They are going to show about the same thing, with minor differences because of QVs rolling 3 month average vs reinz monthly figures.
Compare the shape of the reinz HPI vs the QV HPI, basically the same thing, less noise on the QV, and it has the peak a month or two later due to the rolling average.
It is hilarious to watch the mad pivots tho.
Did the open home thing over weekend. Agent, who was also agency manager, agreed with my observation, that being large numbers of properties sitting, but very now and again and outlier buyer appears and ones gets sold at a good price.
These type of buyers are random, the exception and a matter of timing and luck for seller. Thus the remainder are holding in the hope of another outlier buyer appearing
So...who can hold and who has to fold is the game. We will find out in 25.
Interestingly is that the market won’t be going anywhere if FHB are priced out - especially with the foreign buyer ban. So it’s a bit of a chicken/egg situation. The market needs new entrants to load up with debt - and the boomers can no longer load up with debt as they are retiring. So got to figure out wheee the credit growth is going to come from. If it’s not from boomers and if it’s not from foreigner buyers and if it’s not from FHBs because they are going to be priced out - where is the credit growth going to appear from? Investors buying and selling to one another?
The properties under $1million are moving in Auckland, perhaps that's why the big drop in average price in January, if the top 3 quarters are a bit stagnant its going to massively drop the overall average. I think we have just seen this.
You need a lot of existing equity to by a $1.5 - 2 million dollar house,
In the market to up / side grade current house in Tauranga for something a little bigger. Have done a few open homes to view some tarted up shite. Most recent CV of 815 had obviously not had a cent spent on it by landlord for the past 10 years. Leak in kitchen wall which was taped over. What kind of landlord lets their 'investment' rot away like that? Anyway, agent wanted offers the following day after the listing was only live for 2 weeks. I declined a formal offer after being chased by the agent to give one. Said I'd only pay 100k under CV. See how that goes.
In my experience you have to let these type of listings go through a few agents before the vendor realises that they are valuing their property above the bid. Some never do.
Its even worse if its owned by multiple people or a family situation.
record listings just move to the next one.
One property lifestyle property I visited over weekend is wanting over $2mill. I know it had offer of $1.7 some months back - rejected. I wouldn't pay anywhere close to $1.7, so much 'wrong' with the place. They offer came form a friend of a friend...will suggest if they still interested to go back again, but lower still.
Seller way outta touch.
Some equestrian properties around Auckland have been on the market for years, often they have no income potential so its pure lifestyle. Sometimes they are on tiny 2-3H sites, so even limiting in the number of horses you can realistically keep. LSB are a lot of work, you have to understand what you can realistically do yourself and what you are going to have to pay for.
Other properties sell very quickly given the market, its got to be ready now, so the teenagers can walk on and use.
Mmmm much like NZ.
“What we are going to have going forward is the reversal of deficit government spending, which was juicing the economy with illegals.
Some of them got jobs, but a lot of them got benefits. They got housing accommodations. The NGO system was flush with money to facilitate this massive, purposeful logistical operation. People don’t understand that the net legal migration in the US is one million a year. That’s one million people a year. The last four years, we brought in 10 million to 15 million people. That is a new economic variable, and it distorted the economy.
It never got us into expansion territory, but it papered over a lot of the ills we were seeing.
Trump’s policies are going to reverse that all out. . . . The velocity of money under Joe Biden really started to rise. . . . Illegal immigration is very inflationary...
In the fourth quarter, the velocity of money is already rolling over. The Trump effect began the moment he was elected. We’ve seen self-deportations. We have seen new tenant rents plunge, and that’s what has been holding up the housing market.”
and..
Dowd predicts,
“We are seeing a recession in 2025. The rest of the globe is already starting to roll over. It’s going to be a worldwide recession. There is going to be a mini housing crisis. Housing has been stagnant for the better part of the year. There is no transaction volume, and nobody can afford homes. We are hitting the 18-year housing cycle. The last housing cycle was in 2007, and you add 18 years and you get 2025...
The economy for the middle-class is going down. . . . As time goes on, we are going to see GDP numbers go lower and lower and lower. . . . It’s kind of a perfect storm for the Trump Administration. There is no way to avoid the pain.”
More or less aligns with what has happened in past periods subsequent to yield curve inversions. 12-36 months of negative growth/recession/asset price drops.
Yield curves only normalised in the 2nd half of last year so it’s possible we see no real recovery or growth until 2026-2028 if historical trends repeat.
I hate the thought of it but yes. That's my view, national will make some plan to borrow and spend to try and juice an election win , and will probably succeed as the memory of Labour and TPM/Greens etc are to raw in the common white cis males memory.
Any chance of a bounce may be decimated as recession rolls over the globe, China is screwed here, the stories of property value drops are mind blowing. Europe is a basket case with people turning to the far right for answers, and the USA is not going to extend any help.
USA has its own problems.
Basically no one cares about little old NZ, you can go solve your overvalued house problems yourself...
Not even the Cook Islands has respect for us anymore.
I remember 10+ years ago talking in person with a very well respected financial advisor and who currently runs a reasonable large fund (won’t name names) said don’t worry about NZ house prices falling unless China gets into trouble. He was right - while China was doing well our house prices went to the moon.
Well in all reports I see China is now in trouble so be cautious out there - especially anyone thinking of taking on large amounts of debt.
Our excessively high private debt (140-160%) of GDP is the problem - not interest rates. An issue we’ve managed to avoid from 2008 by dropping rates/OCR to 0%. But at some point we need that debt ratio to drop down below 100% otherwise it’s just going to be pain and stagnation going forward.
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