Housing market remains becalmed for the start of 2025, says QV

Property / news

QV says average housing values declined by just 0.3% last year with prices remaining 'relatively static'

21st Jan 25, 5:00am by Greg Ninness

Quotable Value (QV) says house prices were "relatively static" last year and are likely to stay that way as the market heads into 2025.

"Our latest QV House Price Index shows residential property values edged upwards by an average of just 0.1% nationally in the December quarter, which was not enough to finish the year in the black," QV Operations Manager James Wilson said.

"The average [New Zealand] home is now worth $902,414, which is 0.3% less than at the start of 2024, and 15.2% below the market's peak just over three years ago."

"Now that flattening trend looks set to continue throughout the early part of 2025, with little evidence to suggest that property values are set to grow substantially this summer," Wilson said.

"It's been steady as she goes throughout much of last year, and it looks like it's going to stay that way for a while yet."

"It's a new year, but the same restraining factors are still very much at play, including sustained weakness in the labour market, a high cost of living, credit constraints and a surplus of properties for sale," said Wilson.

"The marked uplift in demand for housing that has come as a direct result of falling interest rates hasn't yet converted into any significant price pressure, so we're only seeing very small pockets of growth."

"However we also haven't seen quite so many reductions this quarter in particular, which indicates that we're now at or very close to equilibrium in the market," Wilson said.

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100 Comments

by ex agent | 21st Jan 25, 7:34am 1737398050

Unlike the REINZ QV acknowledge what is actually happening in the housing market. A large increasing inventory, interest rates that are still high, a high cost of living in NZ, increasing unemployment and New Zealanders leaving to live overseas. All of the above factors can only lead to a challenging market.

by TronMVP | 21st Jan 25, 10:28am 1737408523

Fact check on your comments ex agent.

Increasing inventory- false (inventory is decreasing according to a recent article in Interest)

High interest rates - false (5.5% is neither high nor low)

Increasing unemployment- predictions of unemployment being over 5% by December 2024 were wrong

New Zealanders leaving to live overseas - that has always been the case

You commented yesterday that the market was falling, yet the fall was just 0.3% over 12 months.

by ex agent | 21st Jan 25, 12:41pm 1737416462

Many vendors who failed to sell have taken their unwanted homes off the market. They will come back on at some stage. Where I live homes with asking prices of $1.5 m or so or more are dead in the water. Most have been on the market for many months, some for several years. Prices peaked late 2021 so over three years ago. People need to accept that. You get less for your home now but you will pay less for the replacement home compared with 2021.

Fact: The rate of increase might be slowing down but people are still being laid off by the government and those businesses that are still struggling.

Fact: A lot of people have moved overseas to get ahead, especially to Australia. We all know some who have done it. Some will get ahead and some will not.

Fact: Since 2021, mortgage rates and other basic living costs have increased to the extent that many households are doing it hard.

by Brocky | 21st Jan 25, 1:20pm 1737418846

Those that failed to listen to The Prophet three years ago have had their entire deposit erased from existence.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/quotable-value-shows-drop-from-peak…

by tothepoint | 21st Jan 25, 12:25pm 1737415523

Given the considerable increase in average house prices over the decade leading up to November 2021, the market’s cooling-off over the last three years has been relatively mild. Notably, it’s been far less dramatic than many people here predicted. (Some would call it a “soft-landing”.)

By and large, property owners/ investors/ speculators have sought to hold on and ride out the downturn in the market.

Market activity might well strengthen a bit over 2025 but in a “fits and starts”, non-linear manner. The stock of unsold houses remains high, so I can’t see a big jump in average house prices anytime soon. Bank forecasts seem too optimistic to me - but we’ll see.

Edit: 1

TTP

by Time Lord | 21st Jan 25, 8:04am 1737399844

Your major assumption is that the cooling off period (price corrections) are over...

Watch your step.

by rastus1 | 21st Jan 25, 8:51am 1737402671

Much of what I watch has sat for months. Then one sells and at price that really surprises - its as if the buyer is new to the area or just have to buy now.

These one off high prices likely provide enough reason to hold out in the hope you will find same. BUT...so many sitting unsold I wonder how much longer they can hold, surely they will want to sell before the approach of winter?

Perhaps its not gonna happen, but the strain out there tells me it will.

by Crazy Horse | 21st Jan 25, 10:51am 1737409906

TTP ...welcome to 2025... looking for a property for a relative in the Mount area, who is a total cash buyer (been working overseas for 25 years) and not as an investment, but for himself to live.

He wants to wait till prices drop, while I say make an offer on a property you really like ..and stick to your offer and don't negotiate (especially for properties that have been on the market for months)

Thoughts ?

Also for rookie investor - you asked in a rental article last week, why do I post on property articles here - above is my reason, so please remember there are way more ways to invest your money, than just the NZ residential property market - and as this website is a financial platform, there will always be overlaps.

by rastus1 | 21st Jan 25, 11:30am 1737412233

I remember a mate of mine many years ago buying first home. Made his cash offer, agent came back counter signed for more. He said take it back, give them the chance to sign again and if they counter again my counter will be $5k lower than my first offer.

They signed.

I tried the same about 20 years later. Told the agent when it came back that as it was cash offer I actually should be getting a greater discount and so my counter would be lower. She squirmed when I asked ..'.have you actually put the offer to them at all'?

Off she ran and came back with my offer signed.

Cash buyer = make the most of your power.

by Zwifter | 21st Jan 25, 2:32pm 1737423165

Prices are not going to drop anytime soon in the mount on a decent place. There are a few dodgy looking apartments that may come up on the cheap, some were not selling when I was at the auction in 2020, couldn't even attract a single opening bid. Depending on the relatives age, sometimes you simply cannot wait.

by Thats All Folks | 21st Jan 25, 3:40pm 1737427249

Anecdotal wanking on about TGA as usual….

by ex socialist | 21st Jan 25, 11:47am 1737413266

Tim, - 15% below peak - and cpi increased 20% in intervening 3-4 years. So 35% lower in real terms - and no sign of a boom coming. Even if the prices raised 2-3% in the next year the cost of finance would be 5% - so you are starting from behind.

People talk about the dead money of paying rentals - but insurance, rates and interest looks like dead money too. Especially if the prices are going up less than depreciation. Over a 30-year mortgage you are going to pay for a new roof, new windows, new kitchen bathroom,

by El Torso | 21st Jan 25, 8:22am 1737400970

Height to boundary looks like an issue with the house in the picture......

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 8:38am 1737401902

flood insurance cost?

by Pragmatist | 21st Jan 25, 9:30am 1737405003

Tree fiddy says their mortgage is floating rate...

by Zwifter | 21st Jan 25, 8:53am 1737402795

Decent finish for Tauranga, average house price is still over $1M, not a lot of change down here.

by yeahrightmate | 21st Jan 25, 11:03am 1737410603

Papamoa must now be the most desirable retirement village in NZ?

by Zwifter | 21st Jan 25, 2:28pm 1737422897

You need to have done pretty well for yourself to be able to afford to move there. You are not going to get any change back from your Auckland property in most cases its an expensive area now.

by interesting1234 | 21st Jan 25, 3:26pm 1737426370

Nelson is up there on that list XD

by Thats All Folks | 21st Jan 25, 9:15am 1737404128

I note that REINZ are still furiously polishing the turd this month.

Perhaps, just a well earned, extended holiday….

by Pragmatist | 21st Jan 25, 9:33am 1737405203

Not the dgms that are sticking their fingers in their ears and shouting lalalala at an almost entire column of positive quarterly price movements?

by Toye | 21st Jan 25, 9:36am 1737405372

All 0.1% of it? Wow!

And lets also forget about the 3 quarters beforehand!

by Pragmatist | 21st Jan 25, 9:46am 1737405982

Lol, what a surprise. The most prodigious dgm is straight in with a but what about last year comment.

It's still above it's July 2023 low btw, it been basically going sideways for a year and a half.

Not crashing like the dgm squad continually tries to portray. 😘

by Toye | 21st Jan 25, 9:52am 1737406377

Lets forget about the 20% crash too while we are at it.

Crash 2: Boogaloo, 2025 perhaps? Lets see how high the inflation goes under Trump.

Enjoy paying high interest on your slowly devaluing asset class 😘

by Pragmatist | 21st Jan 25, 10:00am 1737406832

Lol, a smidge of 15% according to QV HPI actually, and like I said, that ended July 2023 more or less. 😘

And according to QV our house hasn't lost any value since we bought, it's probably up a touch, except we now have paid off a large chunk of it instead of donating to a landlord.

by Toye | 21st Jan 25, 10:11am 1737407486

Ahhh you are one of those. Prices went down but not my house! Not my street! Not my area! Riverhead! Christchurch!

No landlord "donations" on this end either, I guess we are the same in some ways, I just prefer to be a bit less morally broke.

In saying so those who have made "donations" in the last 5 years instead of buying a house have done well for themselves considering they could have lost their deposit and owed the bank money after paying their mortgage for a few years.

I look forward to the QV values adjusting down further.

by Pragmatist | 21st Jan 25, 10:16am 1737407779

No dumbass, we didn't buy at the peak. So the paper value went up, and went down and now it's pretty much where we started.

Can't wait for the indignant howls when the Auckland RVs come out and pretty much haven't changed since the last lot, the dgms are going have a complete meltdown.

by Toye | 21st Jan 25, 10:22am 1737408121

So why mention your house not moving up or down much? Seems like you just wanted to say something.. pointless? Nothing new then.

The CVs are whatever they are - houses will still sell under them if they don't reflect reality, just like the last couple of years.

by Pragmatist | 21st Jan 25, 10:33am 1737408814

Lol, you were the that that raised it trying to imply I was sticking my head in the sand.

Have fun, I'm off to a customer site so won't be on line again today.

by Time Lord | 21st Jan 25, 10:27am 1737408458

So the paper value went up, and went down and now it's pretty much where we started.

While the nominal price has remained flat, the real value of your house has depreciated due to inflation.

by Pragmatist | 21st Jan 25, 10:31am 1737408690

Of course you forget to mention that the real value of the mortgage has also depreciated due to inflation, and our incomes have increased.

Gotta load those dice and only show one side of the story.

by Time Lord | 21st Jan 25, 10:39am 1737409184

Mortgage rates have increased considerably during this time. Has your wage increase really been enough to offset this?

by Pragmatist | 21st Jan 25, 11:49am 1737413392

Yes, easily.

by Time Lord | 21st Jan 25, 12:10pm 1737414618

Congratulations, you can consider yourself special.

However, your situation is far from typical for the greater population of homeowners or potential buyers. Your conditions make it hard to convince the average buyer that NZ property remains a profitable investment vehicle in today’s environment.

by Toye | 21st Jan 25, 11:00am 1737410422

Except those that didn't dive in head first due to FOMO can now purchase those same homes for less with much stronger incomes.

by interesting1234 | 21st Jan 25, 3:27pm 1737426479

Doubly so thanks to higher savings for greater deposit meaning they can wrangle slightly better interest rates.

by CN - new | 21st Jan 25, 3:35pm 1737426910

"Except those that didn't dive in head first due to FOMO can now purchase those same homes for less with much stronger incomes."

And lower mortgage borrowings.

Refer Peaker vs Buyer Today.

Let's take a look at "forced savings" by buying their own residential dwelling for a buyer in a low income neighbourhood - Manurewa in Auckland.

A) Peaker:

1) Nov 2021:

Median house price in Manurewa: $1,025,000

Purchase with 90% LVR mortgage: $922,500

Equity deposit:$102,500

2) Payments for 3 years to Nov 2024

1) Total P&I payments for 3 years: $133,108 (2.6% fixed interest rate for 3 years P&I payments of $44,369 per year)

2) Total payments for 3 years for rates, insurance, maintenance:$12,673 ($4,100 for first year, rising at 3% p.a)

Total payments over 3 years: $145,780 (note that the amount is likely to be higher to to the low equity risk premium interest rate to be charged which is not included above)

So over the 3 years, they have paid

1) equity deposit $102,500

2) total payments for 3 years: $145,780

Total payments of $248,280 since purchase

3) Situation at as Nov 2024:

a) Median house price in Manurewa: $792,672 (price fall of 23% over 3 years)

https://www.realestate.co.nz/.../manukau-city/manurewa

b) Mortgage after "forced savings" of $64,145 due to P&I payments above: $858,355

c) Equity position: NEGATIVE $65,683 (i.e negative equity)

So the owner occupier buyer has paid a total of $248,280 over the last 3 years to have an asset with NEGATIVE $65,683.

That initial equity has evaporated as they were told to buy a house for "forced savings"

B) Buyer today

1) Nov 2021

a) Chooses to rent, pays $92,171 over 3 years ($28,392 in 2021 increasing by 8% per annum)

b) saves $0 (spends the surplus $53,609 as they are spenders - $145,780 paid by owner occupier buyer above less $92,171 in rent) - a financially disciplined household can save that surplus and invest it.

c) keeps 10% deposit in a bank account - $102,500 - earns no interest.

2) Nov 2024:

Equity position: $102,500

This can be used to buy a house at the current median house price in Manurewa of $792,672

90% LVR mortgage: $713,404

Equity position: $102,500

For buyer today, the mortgage is lower 22.6% (by $209,096) compared to Peaker. Peaker had an original mortgage of $922,500 (29% higher) vs Buyer today's mortgage of $713,404. Peaker will pay $455,717 over 30 years (at 6.0% p.a mortgage interest rate) for the larger mortgage, that Buyer Today will not have to pay. For a financially self disciplined household, they can take that $455,717 and invest for their retirement / financial future. Peaker does not have that choice available.

As a result of that single decision to purchase in Nov 2021, Peaker is in a more vulnerable financial position and at risk if they experience a fall in household income (job loss, fewer hours for wage earners). They may be unable to maintain mortgage payments and may face financial stress, and mental stress. If Peaker is forced to sell, then they are less likely to financially recover, they are likely to have lost their entire lifetime of savings, and they may need emergency housing, social housing or accommodation supplements in future.

So which position would people to choose to be in?

1) Peaker who was told to buy due to forced savings : equity position NEGATIVE $65,683

2) Buyer Today: equity position of $102,500

There are conditions where it is better to rent, and there are conditions where it is better to buy. The common widely held belief is that buy under ALL conditions. That is not the case.

Very few of these personal stories of Peakers in NZ are being reported in the media.

Here are some current stories being reported in another real estate market where there was a house price bubble.

https://youtu.be/jpk0JbzTtss

These are likely to be similar to experiences of people who got caught out in previous house price bubbles around the world (Japan 1990's, Ireland 2006, US 2006, etc). Unfortunately there will be some who got caught out and will choose to self harm.

Examples of owner occupier collateral damage from falling house prices elsewhere around the world:

1) https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2012/09/20/your-money/property/ove…

2) https://youtu.be/iKPG_l1P7lk

3) https://youtu.be/ugBKnP2FKDM

4) https://youtu.be/fiCXsu_4BoA

People who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them. What we have learned is that people fail to learn the lessons of history.

The financially illiterate pay a high price for their financial illiteracy. People should get financially literate. People should learn and practice financial self discipline - if they choose not to, then they face the consequences of their choice.

Owner occupiers: CAVEAT EMPTOR. Do your own calculations for your own situation.

by Nzdan | 21st Jan 25, 1:05pm 1737417949

I bought at the peak and checking today we're $180k down on our $900k purchase in December 2021 according to Valocity.

Fortunately our purchase was a trade up and we had a 50% deposit from proceeds of sale of our first home purchased in 2017.

by CN - new | 21st Jan 25, 1:26pm 1737419162

Thank you for sharing your experience.

"proceeds of sale of our first home"

Out of interest, regarding the sale of your first home

1) what was your sale price in 2021?

2) what is the estimated market value of that property today?

by Nzdan | 21st Jan 25, 2:07pm 1737421667

Sale price December 2021
- $595k
Current Homes.co Value
- $380k.

by Zwifter | 21st Jan 25, 10:41am 1737409313

Bang on there mate, DGM's cannot see it however. Anyone who bought in 2020 or earlier is still ahead in the game.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 21st Jan 25, 10:34pm 1737452098

Love the glass is half full approach..

On that basis come 2026 we can always say... 'yeah but anyone who bought in 1996 is still laughing ' 🤣🤣

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 9:50am 1737406221

Prices in recovery, time to buy.

by Toye | 21st Jan 25, 9:54am 1737406481

Nice looking "recovery" there bro

https://imgur.com/a/YJ2irOJ

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 11:08am 1737410895

since we are all living in the past, not what the stats tell us about today. do you remember the house price gain of 35% in 2020 - 2022, that's where we are headed ;)

by Toye | 21st Jan 25, 11:14am 1737411259

So looking at the last 12 months of trends is history while trends from 3 years ago mean go go house prices in 2025?

I hear the banks are looking for an economist, you'd fit right in.

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 11:17am 1737411462

even better, look at the last quarter.

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 11:19am 1737411589

What are you gonna do when prices start increasing by the forecast 10% this year? but don't worry mate by that time you will no longer be able to comment here unless you pay for it.

by Toye | 21st Jan 25, 11:26am 1737412002

I'm going to do nothing because prices won't increase 10 percent this year, just like they didn't increase 7 percent last year per 'forecasts'.

What are you on about paying?

Sorry I've realised replying to you is a waste of time, goodbye.

by TronMVP | 21st Jan 25, 3:39pm 1737427179

He/she means paying to comment on this site, which comes into play on 1st March

by rastus1 | 21st Jan 25, 11:36am 1737412586

Rookie can you tell us where the extra wealth is arriving from to bid prices up?

Asking for the local retailers, builders, ex public servants, restaurateurs, real estate agents who cant pay their mortgages?

ooh and ..No Christmas joy for NZ's services sector | interest.co.nz

by TronMVP | 21st Jan 25, 7:31pm 1737441107

The money comes from borrowing from the banks, around $6 billion every month.

It also comes from rich Boomers who have no mortgage and over a million in TDs.

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 12:41pm 1737416474

I know people who purchased a site in Glendowie in 2020 for $2.4 mil, was next to there current house, plan to bowl all and rebuild townhouses You trying to tell me they will see 35% increase to $3.25 in the next two years? You are dreaming..... most of Glendowie is above 2mil now, there is no way its going to $3mil , people cannot afford buy them now, sure they could at 1.5mil but not at 3mil.

if you even beat inflation you will be doing well.

by interesting1234 | 21st Jan 25, 3:32pm 1737426749

Silly RBNZ, removing LVR and allowing the masses to borrow a million dollars. You can't trust humans, we can't look after ourselves in aggregate.

by RickStrauss | 21st Jan 25, 6:19pm 1737436782

Spending $10 billion if taxpayer money on stimulus welfare was an even more egregious act of theirs at the same time.

by interesting1234 | 22nd Jan 25, 7:48am 1737485298

10billion is nothing in comparison to the amount that was borrowed for housing during the same period.

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 11:16am 1737411400

"However we also haven't seen quite so many reductions this quarter in particular, which indicates that we're now at or very close to equilibrium in the market,"

since we are at the bottom, if you read the article the last quarter shows this. next comes the recovery/boom ;)

by Averageman | 21st Jan 25, 9:21am 1737404498

So no big xmas rush. Perhaps affordability is still a problem. May explains the noise around wanting overseas buyers back in...

by CrispyKahawai | 21st Jan 25, 11:07am 1737410823

For a financial website, I am forever astounded at how many commenters apparently do not understand inflation. If the house you bought in 2020 has the same (paper) value now, you have lost money, and a lot of it, unless you sell at an inflation adjusted price.

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 11:47am 1737413246

which is why in general (over the long term) houses increase in value.

by agnostium | 21st Jan 25, 11:21am 1737411685

Cue one of the most financially ignorant to make your point.

by Toye | 21st Jan 25, 11:27am 1737412056

Ding ding ding

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 12:13pm 1737414786

Its interesting that agnotism and toye boy both created their accounts in feb 2022, which is exactly the peak of the market.

its makes me wonder that they were they ones who bought at the peak and were caught out the most by the crash, hence their biased negative position on it.

Possibly even the same person.

by Toye | 21st Jan 25, 12:36pm 1737416175

Extremely impressive mental gymnastics there old chap!

by agnostium | 21st Jan 25, 1:18pm 1737418731

Classic, I assume you use the same level of insight to come up with your reckons on the property market, you're basically proving the point you lack insight.

Edited because I don't think your comment deserved a proper response.

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 1:33pm 1737419589

what part of my comment proves lack of insight?

by agnostium | 21st Jan 25, 1:46pm 1737420397

The bit where you jump to the conclusion that because someone joined Interest at the peak of the market they must have also bought a home and taken out a mortgage at that same time.

Is joining Interest a condition that the banks require as part of mortgage applications?

Anyway, you're embarrassing yourself again so I'm going to move on as I feel a bit sorry for you.

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 1:51pm 1737420689

or interest reporting articles of house prices increasing at unbelievable rates being a precursor to someone buying.

plenty of people bought during this time, hey i'm just saying, it seems suspicious.

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 12:05pm 1737414357

yet they have increased for the past 30+ years, inflation effects many things, including house prices, a financially literate person should know this.

ignorance is more relatable to people not willing to discuss it.

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 12:47pm 1737416850

The main driver of increasing house prices has been the increase in available credit......

You can only buy with the cash you have plus the banks money

Outstanding residential housing debt is 70% of the banks lending book across the big four.....

This is already at, crazy levels, in China I am told it got to 40%.

Luxon wants people to borrow to invest in productivity and business, but of course you would pay tax on gains from that venture. We are at that point in a Ponzi where it cannot get any bigger (no more credit) , hence history tells us we will deflate as game theory says the first out is best dressed.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Jan 25, 1:06pm 1737417964

RookieInvestor: "ignorance is more relatable to people not willing to discuss it. "

Indeed true.

Now, let's analyze your ignorance ...

Using this graph ... https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-price-reinz ...

1. Select Auckland

2. Slide the 'slider' all the way back to 2010.

Now tell me: Why did Auckland 'flatline' between 2016 and RBNZ created covid-madness in 2020?

Hint 1: Was it anything to do with Auckland being the first Council in NZ to implement higher density zoning?

Hint 2: How much of that massive increase in potential supply hasn't even been touched yet?

Hint 3: Did all other Councils follow Auckland Council?

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 1:30pm 1737419455

Admittedly i cant explain the price stagnation in Auckland over that period, and the things you outline sound plausible, based on other comments you make you're probably right.

Another thing i noted is that house prices from the 2010-2016 period doubled in Auckland whereas the rest of NZ was only 50%, i would ask did Auckland prices reach their threshold for that period relative to incomes?

average salary in 2016 was 62K in Auckland and house prices at 900K (ratio of 14.5) seems very high. Wellignton was at 8:1 roughly.

I'm not disregarding what you said by any means, its just an observation.

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 4:00pm 1737428454

You need to use average household income not average salaries .... not many can afford a house now on a a single income

by interesting1234 | 21st Jan 25, 3:38pm 1737427107

which is why in general (over the long term) houses increase in value.

They increased in value due to lowering of real interest rates for the better part of 30 years since the crash in the late 80's. We got all the way down to 2.9% mortgage rates. The only thing allowing for increased prices is increased wages, lower supply and increasing demand, or the generational wealth transfer from the likes of the baby boomers to their children. We cannot have another 30 years of lowering real interest rates.

by Zwifter | 21st Jan 25, 2:24pm 1737422664

You would be wrong Crispy, it totally depends on many factors. For starters peoples incomes have not kept up with said inflation and a house price is relative to your income and not inflation. If you bought the house for cash in 2020, not only has it gone up in value but you just saved a minimum of $600 a week rent for 4 years. Also if you have not moved house for 4 years and do not intend to move for at least another 6 years, there is simply no way you have "Lost money" because you have no idea how much prices will have increased over the next 6 years. Paper value is not the same as losing money, you have lost nothing or gained nothing until you sell.

by Time Lord | 21st Jan 25, 2:55pm 1737424523

What percentage of home sales in 2020 were cash buyers?

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 4:13pm 1737429180

You are playing a mental game in your head, every professional investor has to mark to market on a regular basis..... You would not like it if your KiwiSaver provider did not include losses from shares they held that had lost value, on the basis they had not sold them yet. In fact they would be jailed.

I think your trade management strategy of never selling is distorting your reality based on past performance, but this is not a great trading strategy if you study enough data.

by CN - new | 21st Jan 25, 4:45pm 1737431142

"not only has it gone up in value but you just saved a minimum of $600 a week rent for 4 years."

For an accurate & complete financial comparison, need to also consider the following costs for the owner occupier (that the renter does not incur):

1) rates

2) insurance

3) repairs and maintenance

Also need to consider the opportunity cost of the funds used to purchase the residential dwelling. E.g if the funds were invested in an asset generating a cash yield above 3-4%, then there would be positive carry vs the rent and there would be further compounding on that annual surplus.

by Time Lord | 21st Jan 25, 5:29pm 1737433781

Since January 2020:

S&P +80%
Gold +108%
Silver +98%

by CN - new | 23rd Jan 25, 7:23pm 1737613398

Furthermore, S&P has a dividend not included above for 5 years (need to net off against tax paid).

Given that the above are USD denominated assets, there is also additional return in NZD terms, due to NZD weakness vs USD

Jan 2020: NZD / USD 0.66667

Jan 2025: NZD / USD 0.565

Here's some calculations that people may not see:

At Dec 2019, a person has NZ$1,025,000 to invest:

A) Buy own residential dwelling in Auckland for 5 years

Median REINZ House Price for Auckland Dec 2019: NZ$1,025,000

Median REINZ House Price for Auckland Dec 2024: NZ$1,038,000

https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-price-reinz

Additional costs of rates, insurance, repairs and maintenance over 5 years: say NZ$4,000 per year totalling NZ$20,000

So net equity after 5 years of ownership costs of Auckland residential dwelling is NZ$1,018,000 (a return of NEGATIVE 0.6% over the whole 5 year period.

B) Invest in S&P 500 ETF - VOO and rent for 5 years

1) NZ$1,025,000 is invested elsewhere.

2) convert to USD at 0.666 gives US$682,650

3) buy VOO at US$294.17 is 2,320 shares

4) total dividend per share for 5 year period is US$29.73 (after allowing for 30% tax 20.811 per share)

5) total dividends for 5 year period are US$48,281

6) current market value of 2,320 shares of VOO is US$1,273,680 (share price of $549)

7) total portfolio value is US$1,321,962 (market value plus total dividends after tax)

8) convert to NZD at 0.565 gives NZ$2,339,755 (this is a return of 128% over 5 years on the initial investment amount of NZ$1,025,000 and is higher than the NEGATIVE 0.6% return over the same 5 year period for the owner occupier residential dwelling owner above)

9) deduct NZ$156,000 for rent for 5 years (NZ$600 per week for 5 years)

10) net equity amount after rent paid for 5 years is NZ$2,183,755

Links:

https://www.investing.com/currencies/nzd-usd-chart

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VOO/

Summary of position at Jan 2025

A) owner of residential dwelling in Auckland: equity position of NZ$1,018,000

B) owner of shares in VOO: equity position of NZ$2,183,755 AFTER RENT PAID FOR 5 years

So the person who invested in VOO is better off by NZ$1,165,755 (or 114% higher than the owner occupier's equity amount of NZ$1,018,000) even after paying rent for 5 years

Note: the person who invested in VOO could now sell, remit the proceeds into NZD, buy a house in Auckland at the median REINZ house price and still have over NZ$1,100,000 in the bank.

by CrispyKahawai | 22nd Jan 25, 8:05am 1737486317

Don’t expect a rational response from Zwifter 🤣

by Time Lord | 22nd Jan 25, 8:10am 1737486651

Zwifter has tapped out. Opportunity costs and asymmetric trades don't bode well with his cognitive dissonance

by Brocky | 21st Jan 25, 11:39am 1737412756

The third world housing in New Zealand is not worth the prices being asked.

Further stagnation to follow.

by Tui12 | 21st Jan 25, 12:11pm 1737414676

Quarter is up almost everywhere.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Jan 25, 12:32pm 1737415934

Wilson said investors seemed to be getting ready to buy. "Mortgage advisers say a lot of investor clients are taking the time to work out 'where does their portfolio sit, what has happened to my asset value over the last couple of years', getting poised and ready to buy."

He said when that investor group decided the market was right to enter they would act quickly. "The coalface feedback valuers are getting is a lot of investors are ready to buy now but in no hurry. Things aren't beginning to heat up, interest rates rate still above where many of them that are carrying bigger debt numbers would like them to be."

Source: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/539477/no-rush-back-to-the-housing-…

The RBNZ needs to ratchet up the DTIs and LVRs for 'investors' PRONTO to slow them down and level the playing field.

And one should note: Making deposits bigger for 'investors' means they'll start paying tax on the rents they collect far, far earlier rather having it paid to banks as 'interest deductions' !!!

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 12:49pm 1737416968

Agree with post but note that the banks are NZs biggest tax payers..... house always wins

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Jan 25, 1:37pm 1737419842

What a truly staggering reply. I'm friggin' gobsmacked!

Do you want to update it to something that makes sense in the context of what I said?

Hints: Would the overall tax revenue collected go up? ... Would the country's balance of payments improve (eventually)?

by DitchSkipper | 21st Jan 25, 12:50pm 1737417002

People using an article on January 21st to call the end of the price declines is bizarre.

by rastus1 | 21st Jan 25, 2:15pm 1737422110

Think of their posts like a counselling session with their therapist.

"Hi, my name is Henry and I am a spruikaholic".

A good session ends with a post in support from a fellow patient.

by The Man3 | 21st Jan 25, 2:09pm 1737421775

As I have been saying Christchurch market continues to be the fairest and steadiest market in the country, with prices having the least variance.

Just listening to the radio and the 2 on there saying how great ChCh is, as they had been down for the cricket, and that they would love to live here now.

Reality is that ChCh prices are realistic and investors/ speculators that know what they are doing are making good returns.

Talking about the Auckland market and house prices us a total waste if time as it has been overrated by the locals for ages.

by rastus1 | 21st Jan 25, 2:17pm 1737422234

On holiday, pissed at the cricket and everything seems dandy.

by ex agent | 21st Jan 25, 2:59pm 1737424751

Nelson has higher prices than poor old Christchurch which will always struggle for so many reasons including its horrible weather.

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 3:07pm 1737425272

i've gotta admit, last time i went to chch i was impressed, if i was not able to buy in my location i was either going to oz or buy in chch.

by ex agent | 21st Jan 25, 3:23pm 1737426182

Do what many in Christchurch will have done or intend to do. Go to Australia. Better weather and better wages.

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 3:30pm 1737426642

debatable, too hot in Australia, i like the cold.

by ex agent | 21st Jan 25, 3:33pm 1737426833

Christchurch will be perfect for you then.

by The Man3 | 21st Jan 25, 8:50pm 1737445825

Ex Agent, just depends on what you do to make $!

Lived in Oz and great for holidays but not as good for investing!

by The Man3 | 21st Jan 25, 8:47pm 1737445621

Exactly, ChCh market is the fairest in the country.

Luxury homes, mid range and lower and that is what makes ChCh the place that people are now choosing.

by interesting1234 | 22nd Jan 25, 7:51am 1737485471

I;d lean more to the opinion that for those living elsewhere in the south island, Chch has more jobs and higher average incomes, and for those in the north island, AKL is too pricey, wellington is less so but still more pricey than Chch.

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 4:14pm 1737429270

why limit to chch why not add in aussie locations?