December ends on a 'solid' note for Barfoots

Property / news

Barfoot & Thompson's sales and selling prices were both lower in December on seasonality factors but their mountain of stock remains an issue even if they sold slightly more in the month than they took in new listings

7th Jan 25, 10:24am by David Chaston

Barfoot & Thompson, Auckland's dominant real estate agency, had a "solid finish to the year" with 833 properties sold, which almost exactly the average for a December for the prior ten years.

The median price slipped to $1,000,000 from $1,011,000 in November, confirming the agency's November observation that prices are 'constrained'.

Total property listed also fell to 5094, which was down from 5711 at the start of the month, but up from 4383 at the end of December 2023.

They listed 780 additional homes in December, the first time in 2024 they listed fewer homes in a month than were sold, and the available listings of 5094 was the lowest level in 11 months.

The listing overhang eased in December but it is still very large. It represents almost 30 weeks of sales at the current month sales rate. If history is any guide, they will achieve far lower sales in January which will push up the listing levels again, building the glut they have had all 2024. December inventory levels were +16% higher than the same month a year ago, and a massive +44% higher than the average for the past ten years. It remains very much a buyers market.

In addition to residential listing and sales activity, Barfoots noted that both rural and lifestyle block sales "came to life" in December in a notable uptick.

Overall, buyers are ending 2024 in an extremely strong bargaining position, with plenty of homes to choose from.

The comment stream on this article is now closed.

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121 Comments

by Toye | 7th Jan 25, 10:30am 1736199020

Weak.

A literal mountain of listings is coming over the next couple of months.

Hundreds of new properties already listed for rent in Auckland just on Monday. Some landlords offering $1000 vouchers for new tenants.

Desperation.

by Dgm | 7th Jan 25, 10:34am 1736199247

3 have just come up on my street.. all asking for lower rents than before

by Yvil | 7th Jan 25, 10:37am 1736199432

"A literal mountain of listings"

I don't think you understand the meaning of literral.

by Toye | 7th Jan 25, 10:38am 1736199489

I don't think you know how to spell literal

by Dgm | 7th Jan 25, 10:41am 1736199699

Hahahah.. excellent come back.. even though yvil is not worth responding to..

by interesting1234 | 7th Jan 25, 3:15pm 1736216103

Now now, we all have bits to add without personal denigration.

by Yvil | 7th Jan 25, 10:44am 1736199875

Touché, I don't know how to spell literal and you don't know the meaning 😅

by linklater01 | 7th Jan 25, 4:53pm 1736221986

Yvil,

As someone who can be overly pedantic at times, I had to laugh at your post. I feel sure you will wish you hadn't tried to show off and got left looking so foolish.

by MikeM | 8th Jan 25, 8:35am 1736278543

No, no I've seen the mountain. Very impressive it is too. 😁

by Yvil | 7th Jan 25, 10:33am 1736199208

Do we know what the median price is yoy, vs December 2023 ?

by Toye | 7th Jan 25, 10:33am 1736199183

40k less

by Yvil | 7th Jan 25, 10:34am 1736199288

Thanks, I was quite a bit off then, with my prediction of a 10% fall for 2024.

by Toye | 7th Jan 25, 10:39am 1736199571

Don't worry we're used to it

by Dgm | 7th Jan 25, 10:42am 1736199770

You're on fire today..

by Yvil | 7th Jan 25, 10:47am 1736200022

Yeah, Toye seems a bit unhappy today. I guess we're used to it. 😉

by Toye | 7th Jan 25, 10:48am 1736200101

by Yvil | 7th Jan 25, 11:15am 1736201748

:-E

by Dgm | 7th Jan 25, 10:43am 1736199838

Buyers take your time, the story of an overhang of properties will continue for a long time..

The cracks are just starting to widen...

by Nifty1 | 7th Jan 25, 10:56am 1736200560

Another year of sitting on your hands missing opportunities. Time flies, but it never goes backwards. Make the most of every moment...

by Retired-Poppy | 7th Jan 25, 10:59am 1736200761

It remains very much a buyers market.

I love it, this is fantastic news and long may house prices fall!

And here's the real Spruiker kicker, it looks very likely 2025 will be very much the same as 2024 too!

by Dgm | 7th Jan 25, 11:19am 1736201989

The cracks are starting to widen and speculators are hurting, so 2025 could be worse than 2024

by Dadpool | 7th Jan 25, 12:15pm 1736205354

I think you spelt hunting wrong

by safeashouses | 7th Jan 25, 1:30pm 1736209852

@dadpool nice one

by IT GUY | 7th Jan 25, 2:39pm 1736213988

there is nothing as profitable as a distressed asset

by interesting1234 | 7th Jan 25, 3:17pm 1736216248

Pablo Escobar might disagree there XD

by Baywatch | 7th Jan 25, 3:23pm 1736216614

Lick your balls till 26

by Colin Cameron | 7th Jan 25, 1:47pm 1736210850

Strange RP have put three properties on the market one paid 140k for asking 485k (14 Tanner St) had 6 yrs. Inundated with potential buyers. The next the tenant is seriously looking at buying (7 Guernsey St) brought for 268k 5 yrs ago they looking at 475k 25k less than market value but they been great tenants. And the last one in Taupo which goes on next month. And will let you know the sale price then. And some on here will be laughing thinking the banks are calling nope. One is mortgage free. Why well one will give me the cash to build my next project rather than go to second teir (age is a b...) so the new build will be totally free hold. And the wife and I are just in the process of buying a motorcamp park in Otago freehold. Couldnt do that with TD now could we. Sth Island is ticking along nicely

by Retired-Poppy | 7th Jan 25, 2:32pm 1736213572

Colin, you are exceptional :) I think TD's are a great savings tool prior to sustainable home ownership. Despite what some here conveniently claim I infer, they are certainly not the be all and end all. Still, houses are for living in and any news that they are falling in price for the next generation I greet with enthusiasm. Can you?

by Colin Cameron | 7th Jan 25, 6:05pm 1736226330

RP No as there is alreagy so much opportunity out there alot of people want it given to them on a plate. Example 14 Tanner have a gander on Trade me. Brought that as a runned down gang pad literally (thats what yhe wife thought) yes it was an As Is so you needed the skills but even so I remeber having all the old windows out as waiting for new dble glazed had no Hotwater as the gas wasnt connected up and it was July and a strom came thru Christchurch with horizontal sleet. It was warmer (as I was sleeping on the floor doing this one up) under the floor putting the insulation in a 300 cavity between dirt and floor joists. So covered in fibreglass having to have a fridged shower. How many would do that. Then how many will begrudge me for making that amount of money. Because now here is a modern affordable FHB home. But the ones with a bit of paper hanging on the wall will scream CGT like Cholie

by Retired-Poppy | 7th Jan 25, 6:52pm 1736229160

So to be clear, you don't want house prices to fall yet view the use of TD's as a safer savings tool by those with the discipline to save as flawed....

While I see your ventures as productive too, your approach to others is stereotypical and somewhat elitist.

by Colin Cameron | 8th Jan 25, 9:28am 1736281727

RP getting down to name calling now are we. Thats pretty low for you and really i thought you were a bit more intelligent than that but obviously i am wrong. One of the reasons i dont usually or answer alot on here because they really cant or wont look above their keyboard and I thought you were above that. Have a nice year

by Retired-Poppy | 8th Jan 25, 10:15am 1736284555

Colin, a bit of an over-reaction. By my interpretation, you do come across this way. Perhaps others have said the same thing to you? I'm confident your ego will survive to see another day.

by DonKerrBab | 9th Jan 25, 6:09am 1736356150

So how much did the renovations cost if you include your time? Makes a difference to the end annual compounding return if you add in that and I guess debt costs as well.

we owned a house for 10 years and we doubled our price when we sold. How ever if I took out costs and renovations ( not including interest) it worked out annually at 6.3%. Not too dissimilar to an average investment over that time. Obviously a mortgage means leverage and the return off that could be higher but you can also leverage the sharemarkets indices if you chose

by Colin Cameron | 9th Jan 25, 7:44am 1736361851

As said before no mortgage brought with cash as this was an as is. Time took 6 months full time. If sells at this price which it may not. But if does with the rent average at 400 a week last 18 months 540 aweek. But at 400 for 5 yrs is 100k total. Obviously got to take out rates and insurance

by rastus1 | 7th Jan 25, 2:31pm 1736213486

All due respect Colin, you know what you are doing - as a few others do here. However so many haven't a clue and have jumped in boots and all, borrowed to the max and overpaid at the peak for dog boxes. Many will be forced to sell and this drag the market down.

I also expect that when this happens a large amount of mortgage fraud will be uncovered i.e for many their equity is BS.

For many their day job is not investing or, like you, building - and frankly they find reading up on shares or buying rental is not for them. For these types nothing wrong with term d.

by CN - new | 7th Jan 25, 5:15pm 1736223316

All due respect Colin, you know what you are doing - as a few others do here. However so many haven't a clue and have jumped in boots and all, borrowed to the max and overpaid at the peak for dog boxes. Many will be forced to sell and this drag the market down.

For many their day job is not investing or, like you, building - and frankly they find reading up on shares or buying rental is not for them. For these types nothing wrong with term d.

Exactly.

Many commenters in the property industry are using their own lens to give advice to other readers who are viewing through an entirely different lens (e.g. property traders / budding property developers giving advice to those who have no experience whatsover in property trading - such a first time owner occupier buyers). The first time owner occupiers may not understand the entire context and premise in which the advice is being given.

There are also those giving advice with their undisclosed vested financial self interest.

Owner occupier buyers: CAVEAT EMPTOR.

by Te Kooti | 7th Jan 25, 5:34pm 1736224454

If the market is such that the savvy are able to generate returns while the unsavvy are not, it sounds like we are close to some sort of normal market conditions.

This is as it should be.

by Colin Cameron | 8th Jan 25, 7:45am 1736275534

Rastus just like 1987 when every one and his dog could make money on the sharemarket and you were a fool if you didnt invest. Forward too 2009 and finance companies were the thing to be in. Now its crypto. So just like property there are a certain amout of people who will lose their shirts sadly but that is human nature. If you look back on my comments there are three things i always say. First get out off Auckland if you want to make money and have a life. Second dont buy a two bedroom two storied shit box. And thirdly buy a house you can add value. Which could only be a coat of paint or tidy up the lawn garden. But of course the younger generation will scream well it was all well and dandy in your time boomer.

by starrider | 8th Jan 25, 11:59am 1736290764

"just like 1987 when every one and his dog could make money on the sharemarket "

Right up until the greedy lost everything in the crash....

by The Man3 | 9th Jan 25, 8:29am 1736364563

You are on the money.

Auckland is overpriced and not a great place to live now.

Far better profits out of Auckland and lifestyle is better away from there.

Apartments are not great investments for capital gain.

Buy property with upside and you can not go wrong.

Get advice from those that have achieved financial independence.

Stop whinging about property prices as they wont be dropping

by Zwifter | 9th Jan 25, 10:34am 1736372082

Sad but true. Its a real shame, spent most of my life in Auckland and it used to be a great place to live.

by interesting1234 | 7th Jan 25, 3:18pm 1736216324

Colin Cameron, the definition of productive investment

by NZGecko | 7th Jan 25, 12:07pm 1736204822

Add on the inflation losses and this down draft in prices, is much worse shape.

The overbuild is still continuing in my Auckland area and the units listed for sale in January 2024......are mostly still onsold and on the market in Jan 2025......a few are rented now and being degraded quickly.

For anyone to say there are 5 to 10% gains to be made in 2025 are not living in the real world. They are hoping and praying for a new set of useful idiots to pony up near the lunatic asking prices, enrich the foreign banks and borrow past their eyeballs. All to bailout their bad and ill-considered housing "investments".

The hopelessly overleveraged and their money will be parted. Banks will be increasing forced to yank their loaned funds back, by force.

Nothing is set to drive prices up, (China totally in the crapper, Unemployment ratcheting higher, Company profits heading further down the well, Interest rates still fairly high and likely to go higher, Deglobalisation/tariffs set to take a bigger ramp up)

The NZ housing Ponzi market is a dead man walking. Losses on home resales in NZ in 2025, will be increasingly front page news and add to the downwards spiraling death throes of the NZ Ponzi.

Buyers should only offer the old 2015 and back valuations - as this is when the market will hit, come the long, scraping bottom, market flatline, in 2027/2028.

Buyers beware, losses on buying a home today are more likely than the fanciful +5% gains of yesteryear. Take your time and take -20% of the asking price.

by Zwifter | 7th Jan 25, 11:04am 1736201070

Keep the jokes coming, its stand up comedy.

by NZGecko | 7th Jan 25, 11:11am 1736201503

RIP Zwiffys "Investments".

by Toye | 7th Jan 25, 12:38pm 1736206693

Joining Riverhead man on the bottom of the ocean

by Yvil | 7th Jan 25, 1:15pm 1736208917

Why do you always revel in, and hope for other people's misery Toye? Life is good, it's a beautiful day, go outside, try to smile, take the boat out...

by simplton | 7th Jan 25, 1:36pm 1736210175

Or other people’s joy as houses become more affordable for those who haven’t been able to afford property. I hope it keeps dropping so my kids can buy their own homes in the next couple of years.

by The Man3 | 7th Jan 25, 2:21pm 1736212898

They will never be any cheaper in many parts of NZ.

Time to buy is always providing you are buying right!

by interesting1234 | 7th Jan 25, 3:22pm 1736216565

It depends on the lens. Buying using paper equity from another property, which was built upon the rent of others, is a far different lens than a saved deposit paid for with time, restraint and hard work. One is a transaction intended for the purpose of profit over the medium to long term, and the other is more meaningful as there is real time and experiences to be put to the value of the deposit.

by The Man3 | 7th Jan 25, 10:30pm 1736242221

Generally all successful businesses are built on leveraging!

I respect people who actually get ahead by borrowing and leveraging and this is what keeps people employed.

Saving is pretty difficult now to get a deposit on a home as the market tends to increase by more than you can possibly save.

Without investors leveraging to buy investment property, there would be so many not having a roof over their heads.

There is actually several ways of getting into housing without physically having to save a full deposit yourself, but you have to be prepared to work.

by Averageman | 8th Jan 25, 9:39am 1736282396

How much experience do you have trying to borrow for a business not secured by property...? I'll wager not much, as doing so is a very different experience to stacking property debt.

by IT GUY | 8th Jan 25, 3:26pm 1736303215

Its almost impossible

by ChrisOfNoFame | 8th Jan 25, 10:56am 1736286991

"Generally all successful businesses are built on leveraging!"

Your sure about that?

Many successful businesses start out with seed capital, rejecting leverage due to cashflow constraints. Only when cashflow becomes regular and proven do they take on leverage. And I'd also point out that those that do use 'leverage' often source it from friendly non-bank sources e.g. family, parents of friends or employees, etc., and at low interest rates inconsistent with the risk, with various options to allow the 'loans' to be turned into share capital at preferential prices.

by The Man3 | 9th Jan 25, 8:34am 1736364872

Business is built on leveraging.

The Banks lend more to grow the business built on the increased value of the business.

Therefore that is leveraging.

People that are prepared to work and get out and do it, deserve respect.

by Averageman | 9th Jan 25, 9:59am 1736369947

Not true. The first question any banker asks is "how much is your house worth" to calculate the security. Aka they don't have the time to understand your business.

When you are cranking they want to lend money....but then you don't really need it.

by linklater01 | 7th Jan 25, 5:07pm 1736222840

simplton,

here's my problem. I am old-almost 80- and have done well from the property market, not because i have any skill in that market, but simply because property prices have kept going up since I my first purchase in 1969, first in Scotland and then here for the last 21 years-I live at the Mount.

Now, I want to pass as much as I can to my sons both to help their retirement plans and allow them to help their children, but at the same time, I would houses to be much cheaper to allow my grandchildren to get into the market without needing their parents' help. In 1969, the maximum loan was 3 times my salary with no account taken of my wife's income. I was still able to buy a very small property in the best part of Glasgow.

The two aims seem mutually incompatible.

by Zwifter | 8th Jan 25, 9:06am 1736280416

Yvil, you can easily see why we have high levels of mental illness and tall poppy syndrome in this country. Way too many people on here wanting others to fail.

by Crazy Horse | 7th Jan 25, 12:07pm 1736204845

Good luck with those rental increases mate :)

by K.W. | 7th Jan 25, 11:41am 1736203274

We should start a new chart - pricing NZ property in Australian dollars. With all the people leaving for Australia, its the only pricing metric that matters. For all those (attempting) selling here, to buy there. How much does the Pacific Peso get you these days, and how much are you losing by renting out your house and hoping that "prices will go back up"?

by Colin Cameron | 8th Jan 25, 8:17am 1736277434

KW exactly what people were saying 25 yrs ago when the NZ dollar was at .50c to the US. And look at what happened to NZ. It boomed property went up exports went up productivity went up. The so called experts who use to say exactly what you are saying got proved wrong again there were more going against us joining than for. First is Aust is very uncompetitive. Like subsidise their farmers and back then heavily subsidised holden and ford. Just to name a few things

by The Man3 | 7th Jan 25, 2:20pm 1736212801

To be fair Gecko, you are deluded if you believe a vendor is going to be accepting 2015 prices!

I will guarantee you that prices in most parts of NZ will be up this year and ChCh minimum of 5%.

NZ house prices in many parts are cheap and will never be cheaper again.

Many of your comments are just beyond laughable.

by Chairman Moa | 7th Jan 25, 2:58pm 1736215103

"I will guarantee you that prices in most parts of NZ will be up this year and ChCh minimum of 5%."

NZ is heading a deep recession and unemployment is on its way up.. I really hope you are right!

by CN - new | 7th Jan 25, 4:42pm 1736221344

"I will guarantee you that prices in most parts of NZ will be up this year and ChCh minimum of 5%."

So you are willing to underwrite any shortfall for buyers in Christchurch?

by The Man3 | 7th Jan 25, 10:33pm 1736242428

Would not need to as there is no way that prices are not increasing in ChCh, the happiest city in NZ!

by CN - new | 8th Jan 25, 12:39pm 1736293165

"Would not need to as there is no way that prices are not increasing in ChCh, the happiest city in NZ!"

Just wanted to highlight that this response is a deflection to the original question, and the original question was not answered. People will choose to interpret that response in their own way.

by CN - new | 19th Jan 25, 2:37pm 1737250629

Increase in inventory in Christchurch

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/christchurch-housing-market-keeping-ever…

Currently 1,933 properties listed for sale in Christchurch City.

by Colin Cameron | 8th Jan 25, 8:19am 1736277597

CN look on trademe at 14 Tanner St Woolston. I brought that 6 yrs ago for 140k its on the market 10k cheaper than what i was advised to put it on for. Am inundated with viewings. So much for a slow market. Do you think i am going to lose my shirt?

by ChrisOfNoFame | 8th Jan 25, 11:07am 1736287626

Colin, assuming you get the sale price you want (I noticed you've already dropped it once), if you remove all the cash you've spent on financing, reno, rates, etc, from the cash you've received from rents and the capital gain, what is the hourly rate you've paid yourself (i.e. turned into money) with the whole exercise?

Have you done that maths?

by Colin Cameron | 8th Jan 25, 5:00pm 1736308828

Yes i have it is mortgage free brought out right at 140k as is. Total to bring back to code plus new roof new gutter new kitchen etc was 75k. Not including time. So say rent minimum over 5 years was 100k. Took me 6months to do. Not a bad return on time. Dropped it as recommended by the RA.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 8th Jan 25, 5:12pm 1736309536

No. You actually haven't done the maths. Or if you have - you don't want to disclose it?

C'mon. If you are claiming the title for - "That's how it's done" - this shouldn't be hard.

(I've asked the same question before when a few months back Colin claimed 'riches' and everyone applauds him.. And like now, Colin avoids answering it. I do this kind of work all the time. It's my hobby. You can make a living from it. But get rich? No.)

by Colin Cameron | 8th Jan 25, 5:28pm 1736310524

What crap are you on. Paid 140k for it. As it was an As is do you know what rhat is. You cant get a mortgage or insurance cause of Earth Quake damage understand. So total to bring back to code plus redo was 75k all done by me. So total for you makes 215k all up. Been rented the last 5 plus yrs minumum 400 actually last 18mths 540 aweek. But lets work on 400 for 5 yrs equals 100k obviously insurance and rates. So cause it hasnt sold yet but working on that amount to me is a great income. So what other costs are there none no mortgage holding costs nothing.

by The Man3 | 9th Jan 25, 8:42am 1736365377

Colin, there are people that get out and achieve things in life snd there are too many others that just prefer to put achievers down.

Unfortunately there appears to be many of the second lot on here.

Opportunities are rampant if you want them snd in Christchurch especially, but if you have spent your whole life in Auckland then you will not see them.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 9th Jan 25, 10:26am 1736371619

And yet ... Still no maths and therefore still no answer.

You haven't worked it out, have you?

by ChrisOfNoFame | 8th Jan 25, 5:04pm 1736309056

Colin?

I do the maths on this all the time. By comparison to my ICT work, its not that profitable, hence why I call it a hobby.

Your honest feedback would be appreciated.

And without it - forgive me if I put your comments into the 'spruiker' basket.

by Colin Cameron | 8th Jan 25, 8:21am 1736277680

CN forgot to say its been rented fot 5 yrs at average 400 aweek

by CN - new | 8th Jan 25, 12:33pm 1736292798

Colin,

Clarification on my question above to TheMan3 - TheMan3 made his guarantee yesterday so starting from today's prices - so for current purchasers of residential property in Christchurch, and not for purchases made before TheMan3's house price guarantee was made.

by General Comment | 7th Jan 25, 11:09am 1736201383

B-flat is a pretty solid note. As in, the market be flat.

Thank you, thank you. I'm here all week, free snacks are available at the bar.

by WestieAJ | 7th Jan 25, 11:41am 1736203282

A Major Scale correction?

by Middleaged | 8th Jan 25, 11:02am 1736287331

Completely different to A sharp increase then?

Think about it...

by mikekirk29 | 7th Jan 25, 11:50am 1736203852

Plenty to choose from tripe

Don't folk get tired tripping out same words

Choice is not choice if you have already bought and or can’t afford things

by The Man3 | 7th Jan 25, 11:53am 1736204026

With respect, fortunately the NZ housing market is not just Auckland .

Quoting Barfoot sales numbers is not necessarily a true reflection of the NZ market, where we have known for years that Auckland is not the place to be living for lifestyle and has been grossly overpriced.

I can assure you that the ChCh housing market is a far better market to be investing into and where everyone gets a chance to own a home.

I also can advise that Australia is no easier for buying an owner occupied house than NZ, in fact it is actually hsrder, but then if you think it is better then go over and check it out.

by Crazy Horse | 7th Jan 25, 12:12pm 1736205165

The Boy2 - You stick to your Christchurch housing market and I'll stick to my Crypto .....out of the Auckland property market since 2017

The "smart money" has left the building - pardon the pun.

by Zwifter | 7th Jan 25, 12:51pm 1736207471

Good luck, the only people I know that got out of the market can never afford to get back in. Both of them stuffed up.

by simplton | 7th Jan 25, 1:38pm 1736210318

Large sample size there Zwifter

by Retired-Poppy | 7th Jan 25, 3:00pm 1736215228

😂🤣👍. Conveniently lacking on vital specifics too. Perhaps both of them couldn't afford to own and are now much happier for it.

by Crazy Horse | 7th Jan 25, 2:58pm 1736215099

Zwiffy ....I never said what my current situation was, did I ? or do you have your special crystal ball ?

I was in the US property market from 2011 - 2020 and freehold in Auckland

The "one eyed bias" of the great kiwi property investoor never ceases to amaze me ....

by The Man3 | 7th Jan 25, 2:23pm 1736213018

Of course I will stick to ChCh housing investing.

You stick to Crypto as long as you understand that it will crash.

by Crazy Horse | 7th Jan 25, 3:06pm 1736215568

The Boy2 ....did it ever occur to you that everything goes in cycles ?

Good luck with those Christchurch capital gains in the next 5 years, that you are drooling about

Prices will either remain flat or decrease ...by how much I wouldn't know ?

Also interest rates will never be as low as the 2021 "Bonanza" ....and if they ever were again, we're all screwed, as the NZD will tank and inflation will go through the roof !

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Jan 25, 6:02pm 1736226173

Corelogic's stats out some hours ago ... ;-)

Edit: https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news-research/news/2025/home-value-decline-…

by Baywatch | 7th Jan 25, 9:32pm 1736238734

Thanks Chris - Dec % and medium .

Some bedside reading for you KW...sleep well.

Aotearoa New Zealand

-0.2%

$803,624

Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland

-0.4%

$1,066,382

Kirikiriroa Hamilton

1.0%

$743,667

Tauranga

0.4%

$907,318

Te-Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington

-0.8%

$789,564

Ōtautahi Christchurch

0.0%

$664,830

Ōtepoti Dunedin

0.3%

$607,327

by ChrisOfNoFame | 8th Jan 25, 9:27am 1736281645

My purpose was to counter TheMan3's assertion that "Quoting Barfoot sales numbers is not necessarily a true reflection of the NZ market".

The irony was that I had just finished reading Corelogic's report when I read The Man's speculative assertion above and thought I'd address the hopium displayed. (I didn't post the link at that time in case interest.co.nz were working on an article.) Not a single response until I posted the link. Methinks, that tells you a lot about NZ's property 'investor's' knowledge & skill - and where they get their information, and how thoroughly they check it. It causes very real problems. See Research shows how investors affect house prices in ...

by K.W. | 7th Jan 25, 12:38pm 1736206691

I would disagree. If I sold my home in Christchurch I could easily purchase an equivalent standard of house for about 60%-70% of my sale price, on the Gold Coast. If I chose to spend the same dollar amount, I would be upgrading to a large luxury waterfront property. And my Council rates would still be 60%-70% lower in Australia.

by The Man3 | 7th Jan 25, 2:26pm 1736213192

Not sure you are correct KW.

Where on the Gold Coast is the waterfront property and the AUD$ you are spending?

by The Man3 | 7th Jan 25, 2:28pm 1736213304

KW, looked st those apartments in Donald Place that you mentioned the other day!

They are not going to be easy to sell for the asking prices as the living areas are pathetically small and garaging lacking!

by ex agent | 7th Jan 25, 12:53pm 1736207600

Those out on the Auckland harbour and coastline fishing, sailing and swimming will probably not agree with you. That’s why so many want to live there and don’t want to live where you do. Hence your low property values.

by The Man3 | 7th Jan 25, 2:32pm 1736213527

Firstly Auckland grew to what it is today due to immigration and that is why prices went up as well.

If immigration was cut then Auckland prices will fall.

I think we are getting far too many immigrants in ChCh as well.

If you want to live in Auckland then so be it, but stop whinging about house prices being too expensive.

by Zwifter | 7th Jan 25, 12:54pm 1736207649

Definite separation in the market, I knew it would happen post Covid. Get out of Auckland if you can there are much better lifestyle options in the regions.

by gregwani | 8th Jan 25, 7:39pm 1736318399

we have known for years that Auckland is not the place to be living for lifestyle

Clearly more moaner than @The Man3. I've lived all over the world, from Toronto, to Bristol, Manila...and worked in a dozen more. Auckland has hands down some of the best opportunities for a great lifestyle in the world

by IT GUY | 7th Jan 25, 12:17pm 1736205449

I think those in the lower quartile will find FHBers and make a sale in 2025, they may not get there asking price but will get a sale.

I know several who purchased$2 mill sites near the top, who either do not want to or cannot afford or council says no to their dev plans, they are trying to get out flat or 10% down. They are dreaming, they have small rooms no flow etc etc, great suburbs but not great homes for families spending $2 plus mil... they will have to take a significant loss to move these, many have already been through multiple agents hands with only "wasting everyone's time level" offers.

So at low end in AKL 1.1 mil may sell at 1mil, but the 2.3 may need to drop to 1.8 to offload as they are really all land value. these bigger falls will continue to drive prices averages / mediums down, even if the lower quartile remains flat.

by kraken | 7th Jan 25, 12:16pm 1736205415

interest.co.nz : "December ends on a 'solid' note for Barfoots"

NZ Herald: "Barfoot & Thompson house sales fall 56% in quiet December holiday month"

by IT GUY | 7th Jan 25, 12:47pm 1736207234

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/aucklands-abandoned-builds-spark-fears-ov…

funny interest . co reports medium is down

NZHerald reports average is up

both true...

by Averageman | 7th Jan 25, 12:48pm 1736207324

Spin. Let's not ignore BnTs role is trying to shift the reality of bubble deflation. Lots of owners holding on thinking 2021 bubble land will return, are increasingly facing higher rates, and capital evaporation.

Popcorn... with bbq sauce.

by RookieInvestor | 7th Jan 25, 12:50pm 1736207440

When you compare it to Dec 2023 there is a considerable increase in sales

by Time Lord | 7th Jan 25, 1:55pm 1736211342

Dec 2023 = 856 sales

Dec 2024 = 833 sales

by Averageman | 7th Jan 25, 2:02pm 1736211779

Yeah nah. Thankyou TL.

by HouseMouse | 7th Jan 25, 2:44pm 1736214241

Rookie error

by mikekirk29 | 8th Jan 25, 7:53am 1736275981

Year to November sales in Auckland acc to REINZ were 1000 below prev 12 months at 31,500. The average 12m sales from 2016-24 were 39,500. With increased pop

by EpsomArtsandCrafts | 13th Jan 25, 11:21am 1736720487

The Barfoot stats will give agents some selective statistics to misspeak and say all is well in Auckland

Meanwhile the banks are actually start doing something about the overcooked loans they gave out based on dodgy mortgage broker sign offs

by morphyoss | 7th Jan 25, 2:43pm 1736214229

If you want to entertain yourself, google 'Oneroof 2024 predictions'

Strangely but unsurprisingly, they have used the same 'experts' in their 2025 prediction commentary.

by NZGecko | 7th Jan 25, 3:27pm 1736216867

The Onewoofer writers are inextricably tied to just Pumping the NZ Housing Ponzi.

They are bought and paid property stooges, reliant on the Ponzi for their incomes. They are all selfishly financially compromised and totally self interested advisers.

The have all been BADLY wrong with their multiple predicting screwups since 2022.

Nothing has changed, they will again be wrong with positive price predictions for 2025. The headwinds are not abating.

NZ property is set for a continuation of another -5 to -10% down market in 2025. Chch/Wgtn probably down more.

by NinaK@interest | 7th Jan 25, 3:38pm 1736217539

Yep. The banks are forecasting about 6 to 8% rise in properties in 25. They are a sick joke and their so called Economists must know this won't happen. 2025 might be a bit of a lumpy year. The S&P 500 is very high, unemployment rises and the yield curve uninverts.......

by CN - new | 7th Jan 25, 4:39pm 1736221189

The banks are forecasting about 6 to 8% rise in properties in 25.

FYI, the line of reasoning used by some was that the median house price growth historically was 6-7% p.a and that this is expected to resume.

by J.C. | 7th Jan 25, 3:26pm 1736216795

Elsewhere Micheal Bury is alarmed that US home builder spec inventory is reaching insane levels and similar to the 2008 housing bubble peak. He explains that a "spec" home is a home constructed without a buyer ready, with the intention to sell at completion or during construction.

And I know Aotearoa is different. Doesn't need to be hammered home ad nauseum.

by NinaK@interest | 7th Jan 25, 3:31pm 1736217086

I am a potential buyer and need a home, but I don't think that it is a buyer's market. Not even close. Our significant trading partner China is in deflation and has had a 30% drop in house prices with this continuing. Just to maintain property prices in nz a reported further 3.9% of bank lend was required taking the private housing related debt to about 360 billion. I simply don't think that the current values can be maintained long term due to our inability to pay for it all. Both Gov and private sector are operating in deficit. This needs to be addressed but will take a substantial change of direction and attitude from the nation as a whole. The alternative is unthinkable.

by J.C. | 7th Jan 25, 4:15pm 1736219740

The debts owed to / claimed by the Aotearoa Ponzi are the highest in the OECD when you consider the investor segment. That's not necessarily an issue as far as I'm concerned, as long as the 'business valuations' hold.

Both Gov and private sector are operating in deficit

Theoretically speaking you're correct. But in terms of the accounting framework, it doesn't particularly matter.

by CN - new | 7th Jan 25, 4:32pm 1736220754

"I am a potential buyer and need a home, but I don't think that it is a buyer's market. Not even close."

There are owner occupier buyers and non owner occupier buyers in different starting situations when buying. Each buying group is potentially outbid by those below in the following list in the market for EXISTING residential real estate (i.e not new builds)

1) Owner occupiers buyers who are on single incomes (e.g single parent with children)

2) Owner occupier buyers with children who may only have a double income household are being outbid by

3) owner occupier buyers in a double income household with either or all of the following:

i) access to the bank of mum and dad

ii) able to rent out rooms for additional income (e.g Airbnb, boarders, students, etc)

iii) without children

4) non owner occupier buyers who have untapped borrowing power

5) syndicates of non owner occupier buyers combining their financial borrowing power

The removal of interest deductibility by the previous government reduced the pool of potential buyers from the non owner occupier buyer group, thereby reducing buying competition for owner occupier buyers.

With the reintroduction of interest deductibility in the EXISTING residential dwelling market, there is increased buying competition from non owner occupier buyers.

There are non owner occupiers in property buying syndicates who are now willing to go negative cashflow on residential real estate due to their expectation of rising market prices and untaxed capital gains and outbidding many owner occupier buyers.

Remember that non owner occupier buyers have a debt to income constraint of 7x (& above the owner occupier buyer debt to income ratio constraint of 6x).

A couple of single friends aged in their mid 20's are unable to purchase a residential dwelling in Auckland - they have neither the deposit nor borrowing power (even combining their incomes - one is a student, the other in retail). The solution to their accommodation needs was generously provided by their parents of one who chose to buy a newly built 3 BDRM townhouse for them to live in (& a place for the parents to stay when they visit Auckland) in the Eastern suburbs. As I understand, the occupants will pay for rates, insurance. There should be very little maintenance, & the property was purchased with no mortgage.

Previously the occupants lived with the parents who recently sold and relocated out of Auckland.

by MacroView | 8th Jan 25, 10:17am 1736284633

Doesn't economic grief on the Mainland portend that capital owners will be getting their yuan out and looking for somewhere else to park it. Especially now the bazooka is arriving..

by IT GUY | 8th Jan 25, 3:39pm 1736303985

Technically, but I suggest most are very leveraged and have no capital they can get out, so much is stuck in housing...

It got to a peak 70 trillion valuation at the peak, its down by 19 trillion now, and losses are still growing. Many will be stuck now, unable to sell unless they can loan the shortfall from there bank, ie they are now underwater.

They often did not even rent them out as this would "devalue from new'

An asset that does not have a cashflow is a non productive asset

Want to buy a house?

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-economy-excess-debt-gdp-46c69585&…; paywalled

much is covered in this you tube below from that article though the presenter is hard to listen to. still the numbers are mind blowing re losses already, its why gov yields are falling, no one knows which banks will fail here. its way way way to big to save

They issued mortgages on unbuilt developments, what could possibly go wrong?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3PdLeW73WQ

by CN - new | 8th Jan 25, 4:27pm 1736306868

For those who can't see:

1) China estimated loss in housing wealth: 100% of GDP - US$18 trillion

2) NZ estimated loss in housing wealth from peak to low: 90% of 2021 GDP.

by Zwifter | 8th Jan 25, 4:59pm 1736308759

Except there was no loss in most cases. My place just peaked and returned $100K up from 2020. Never sold it so there was no loss, it was just a number on your computer screen.