Barfoot & Thompson, Auckland's dominant real estate agency, had a "solid finish to the year" with 833 properties sold, which almost exactly the average for a December for the prior ten years.
The median price slipped to $1,000,000 from $1,011,000 in November, confirming the agency's November observation that prices are 'constrained'.
Total property listed also fell to 5094, which was down from 5711 at the start of the month, but up from 4383 at the end of December 2023.
They listed 780 additional homes in December, the first time in 2024 they listed fewer homes in a month than were sold, and the available listings of 5094 was the lowest level in 11 months.
The listing overhang eased in December but it is still very large. It represents almost 30 weeks of sales at the current month sales rate. If history is any guide, they will achieve far lower sales in January which will push up the listing levels again, building the glut they have had all 2024. December inventory levels were +16% higher than the same month a year ago, and a massive +44% higher than the average for the past ten years. It remains very much a buyers market.
In addition to residential listing and sales activity, Barfoots noted that both rural and lifestyle block sales "came to life" in December in a notable uptick.
Overall, buyers are ending 2024 in an extremely strong bargaining position, with plenty of homes to choose from.
Barfoot Auckland
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119 Comments
Strange RP have put three properties on the market one paid 140k for asking 485k (14 Tanner St) had 6 yrs. Inundated with potential buyers. The next the tenant is seriously looking at buying (7 Guernsey St) brought for 268k 5 yrs ago they looking at 475k 25k less than market value but they been great tenants. And the last one in Taupo which goes on next month. And will let you know the sale price then. And some on here will be laughing thinking the banks are calling nope. One is mortgage free. Why well one will give me the cash to build my next project rather than go to second teir (age is a b...) so the new build will be totally free hold. And the wife and I are just in the process of buying a motorcamp park in Otago freehold. Couldnt do that with TD now could we. Sth Island is ticking along nicely
Colin, you are exceptional :) I think TD's are a great savings tool prior to sustainable home ownership. Despite what some here conveniently claim I infer, they are certainly not the be all and end all. Still, houses are for living in and any news that they are falling in price for the next generation I greet with enthusiasm. Can you?
RP No as there is alreagy so much opportunity out there alot of people want it given to them on a plate. Example 14 Tanner have a gander on Trade me. Brought that as a runned down gang pad literally (thats what yhe wife thought) yes it was an As Is so you needed the skills but even so I remeber having all the old windows out as waiting for new dble glazed had no Hotwater as the gas wasnt connected up and it was July and a strom came thru Christchurch with horizontal sleet. It was warmer (as I was sleeping on the floor doing this one up) under the floor putting the insulation in a 300 cavity between dirt and floor joists. So covered in fibreglass having to have a fridged shower. How many would do that. Then how many will begrudge me for making that amount of money. Because now here is a modern affordable FHB home. But the ones with a bit of paper hanging on the wall will scream CGT like Cholie
RP getting down to name calling now are we. Thats pretty low for you and really i thought you were a bit more intelligent than that but obviously i am wrong. One of the reasons i dont usually or answer alot on here because they really cant or wont look above their keyboard and I thought you were above that. Have a nice year
So how much did the renovations cost if you include your time? Makes a difference to the end annual compounding return if you add in that and I guess debt costs as well.
we owned a house for 10 years and we doubled our price when we sold. How ever if I took out costs and renovations ( not including interest) it worked out annually at 6.3%. Not too dissimilar to an average investment over that time. Obviously a mortgage means leverage and the return off that could be higher but you can also leverage the sharemarkets indices if you chose
As said before no mortgage brought with cash as this was an as is. Time took 6 months full time. If sells at this price which it may not. But if does with the rent average at 400 a week last 18 months 540 aweek. But at 400 for 5 yrs is 100k total. Obviously got to take out rates and insurance
All due respect Colin, you know what you are doing - as a few others do here. However so many haven't a clue and have jumped in boots and all, borrowed to the max and overpaid at the peak for dog boxes. Many will be forced to sell and this drag the market down.
I also expect that when this happens a large amount of mortgage fraud will be uncovered i.e for many their equity is BS.
For many their day job is not investing or, like you, building - and frankly they find reading up on shares or buying rental is not for them. For these types nothing wrong with term d.
All due respect Colin, you know what you are doing - as a few others do here. However so many haven't a clue and have jumped in boots and all, borrowed to the max and overpaid at the peak for dog boxes. Many will be forced to sell and this drag the market down.
For many their day job is not investing or, like you, building - and frankly they find reading up on shares or buying rental is not for them. For these types nothing wrong with term d.
Exactly.
Many commenters in the property industry are using their own lens to give advice to other readers who are viewing through an entirely different lens (e.g. property traders / budding property developers giving advice to those who have no experience whatsover in property trading - such a first time owner occupier buyers). The first time owner occupiers may not understand the entire context and premise in which the advice is being given.
There are also those giving advice with their undisclosed vested financial self interest.
Owner occupier buyers: CAVEAT EMPTOR.
Rastus just like 1987 when every one and his dog could make money on the sharemarket and you were a fool if you didnt invest. Forward too 2009 and finance companies were the thing to be in. Now its crypto. So just like property there are a certain amout of people who will lose their shirts sadly but that is human nature. If you look back on my comments there are three things i always say. First get out off Auckland if you want to make money and have a life. Second dont buy a two bedroom two storied shit box. And thirdly buy a house you can add value. Which could only be a coat of paint or tidy up the lawn garden. But of course the younger generation will scream well it was all well and dandy in your time boomer.
You are on the money.
Auckland is overpriced and not a great place to live now.
Far better profits out of Auckland and lifestyle is better away from there.
Apartments are not great investments for capital gain.
Buy property with upside and you can not go wrong.
Get advice from those that have achieved financial independence.
Stop whinging about property prices as they wont be dropping
Add on the inflation losses and this down draft in prices, is much worse shape.
The overbuild is still continuing in my Auckland area and the units listed for sale in January 2024......are mostly still onsold and on the market in Jan 2025......a few are rented now and being degraded quickly.
For anyone to say there are 5 to 10% gains to be made in 2025 are not living in the real world. They are hoping and praying for a new set of useful idiots to pony up near the lunatic asking prices, enrich the foreign banks and borrow past their eyeballs. All to bailout their bad and ill-considered housing "investments".
The hopelessly overleveraged and their money will be parted. Banks will be increasing forced to yank their loaned funds back, by force.
Nothing is set to drive prices up, (China totally in the crapper, Unemployment ratcheting higher, Company profits heading further down the well, Interest rates still fairly high and likely to go higher, Deglobalisation/tariffs set to take a bigger ramp up)
The NZ housing Ponzi market is a dead man walking. Losses on home resales in NZ in 2025, will be increasingly front page news and add to the downwards spiraling death throes of the NZ Ponzi.
Buyers should only offer the old 2015 and back valuations - as this is when the market will hit, come the long, scraping bottom, market flatline, in 2027/2028.
Buyers beware, losses on buying a home today are more likely than the fanciful +5% gains of yesteryear. Take your time and take -20% of the asking price.
It depends on the lens. Buying using paper equity from another property, which was built upon the rent of others, is a far different lens than a saved deposit paid for with time, restraint and hard work. One is a transaction intended for the purpose of profit over the medium to long term, and the other is more meaningful as there is real time and experiences to be put to the value of the deposit.
Generally all successful businesses are built on leveraging!
I respect people who actually get ahead by borrowing and leveraging and this is what keeps people employed.
Saving is pretty difficult now to get a deposit on a home as the market tends to increase by more than you can possibly save.
Without investors leveraging to buy investment property, there would be so many not having a roof over their heads.
There is actually several ways of getting into housing without physically having to save a full deposit yourself, but you have to be prepared to work.
"Generally all successful businesses are built on leveraging!"
Your sure about that?
Many successful businesses start out with seed capital, rejecting leverage due to cashflow constraints. Only when cashflow becomes regular and proven do they take on leverage. And I'd also point out that those that do use 'leverage' often source it from friendly non-bank sources e.g. family, parents of friends or employees, etc., and at low interest rates inconsistent with the risk, with various options to allow the 'loans' to be turned into share capital at preferential prices.
simplton,
here's my problem. I am old-almost 80- and have done well from the property market, not because i have any skill in that market, but simply because property prices have kept going up since I my first purchase in 1969, first in Scotland and then here for the last 21 years-I live at the Mount.
Now, I want to pass as much as I can to my sons both to help their retirement plans and allow them to help their children, but at the same time, I would houses to be much cheaper to allow my grandchildren to get into the market without needing their parents' help. In 1969, the maximum loan was 3 times my salary with no account taken of my wife's income. I was still able to buy a very small property in the best part of Glasgow.
The two aims seem mutually incompatible.
We should start a new chart - pricing NZ property in Australian dollars. With all the people leaving for Australia, its the only pricing metric that matters. For all those (attempting) selling here, to buy there. How much does the Pacific Peso get you these days, and how much are you losing by renting out your house and hoping that "prices will go back up"?
KW exactly what people were saying 25 yrs ago when the NZ dollar was at .50c to the US. And look at what happened to NZ. It boomed property went up exports went up productivity went up. The so called experts who use to say exactly what you are saying got proved wrong again there were more going against us joining than for. First is Aust is very uncompetitive. Like subsidise their farmers and back then heavily subsidised holden and ford. Just to name a few things
To be fair Gecko, you are deluded if you believe a vendor is going to be accepting 2015 prices!
I will guarantee you that prices in most parts of NZ will be up this year and ChCh minimum of 5%.
NZ house prices in many parts are cheap and will never be cheaper again.
Many of your comments are just beyond laughable.
"Would not need to as there is no way that prices are not increasing in ChCh, the happiest city in NZ!"
Just wanted to highlight that this response is a deflection to the original question, and the original question was not answered. People will choose to interpret that response in their own way.
Colin, assuming you get the sale price you want (I noticed you've already dropped it once), if you remove all the cash you've spent on financing, reno, rates, etc, from the cash you've received from rents and the capital gain, what is the hourly rate you've paid yourself (i.e. turned into money) with the whole exercise?
Have you done that maths?
Yes i have it is mortgage free brought out right at 140k as is. Total to bring back to code plus new roof new gutter new kitchen etc was 75k. Not including time. So say rent minimum over 5 years was 100k. Took me 6months to do. Not a bad return on time. Dropped it as recommended by the RA.
No. You actually haven't done the maths. Or if you have - you don't want to disclose it?
C'mon. If you are claiming the title for - "That's how it's done" - this shouldn't be hard.
(I've asked the same question before when a few months back Colin claimed 'riches' and everyone applauds him.. And like now, Colin avoids answering it. I do this kind of work all the time. It's my hobby. You can make a living from it. But get rich? No.)
What crap are you on. Paid 140k for it. As it was an As is do you know what rhat is. You cant get a mortgage or insurance cause of Earth Quake damage understand. So total to bring back to code plus redo was 75k all done by me. So total for you makes 215k all up. Been rented the last 5 plus yrs minumum 400 actually last 18mths 540 aweek. But lets work on 400 for 5 yrs equals 100k obviously insurance and rates. So cause it hasnt sold yet but working on that amount to me is a great income. So what other costs are there none no mortgage holding costs nothing.
Colin, there are people that get out and achieve things in life snd there are too many others that just prefer to put achievers down.
Unfortunately there appears to be many of the second lot on here.
Opportunities are rampant if you want them snd in Christchurch especially, but if you have spent your whole life in Auckland then you will not see them.
Colin,
Clarification on my question above to TheMan3 - TheMan3 made his guarantee yesterday so starting from today's prices - so for current purchasers of residential property in Christchurch, and not for purchases made before TheMan3's house price guarantee was made.
With respect, fortunately the NZ housing market is not just Auckland .
Quoting Barfoot sales numbers is not necessarily a true reflection of the NZ market, where we have known for years that Auckland is not the place to be living for lifestyle and has been grossly overpriced.
I can assure you that the ChCh housing market is a far better market to be investing into and where everyone gets a chance to own a home.
I also can advise that Australia is no easier for buying an owner occupied house than NZ, in fact it is actually hsrder, but then if you think it is better then go over and check it out.
Zwiffy ....I never said what my current situation was, did I ? or do you have your special crystal ball ?
I was in the US property market from 2011 - 2020 and freehold in Auckland
The "one eyed bias" of the great kiwi property investoor never ceases to amaze me ....
The Boy2 ....did it ever occur to you that everything goes in cycles ?
Good luck with those Christchurch capital gains in the next 5 years, that you are drooling about
Prices will either remain flat or decrease ...by how much I wouldn't know ?
Also interest rates will never be as low as the 2021 "Bonanza" ....and if they ever were again, we're all screwed, as the NZD will tank and inflation will go through the roof !
Corelogic's stats out some hours ago ... ;-)
Edit: https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news-research/news/2025/home-value-decline-…
Thanks Chris - Dec % and medium .
Some bedside reading for you KW...sleep well.
Aotearoa New Zealand
-0.2%
$803,624
Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland
-0.4%
$1,066,382
Kirikiriroa Hamilton
1.0%
$743,667
Tauranga
0.4%
$907,318
Te-Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington
-0.8%
$789,564
Ōtautahi Christchurch
0.0%
$664,830
Ōtepoti Dunedin
0.3%
$607,327
My purpose was to counter TheMan3's assertion that "Quoting Barfoot sales numbers is not necessarily a true reflection of the NZ market".
The irony was that I had just finished reading Corelogic's report when I read The Man's speculative assertion above and thought I'd address the hopium displayed. (I didn't post the link at that time in case interest.co.nz were working on an article.) Not a single response until I posted the link. Methinks, that tells you a lot about NZ's property 'investor's' knowledge & skill - and where they get their information, and how thoroughly they check it. It causes very real problems. See Research shows how investors affect house prices in ...
I would disagree. If I sold my home in Christchurch I could easily purchase an equivalent standard of house for about 60%-70% of my sale price, on the Gold Coast. If I chose to spend the same dollar amount, I would be upgrading to a large luxury waterfront property. And my Council rates would still be 60%-70% lower in Australia.
Firstly Auckland grew to what it is today due to immigration and that is why prices went up as well.
If immigration was cut then Auckland prices will fall.
I think we are getting far too many immigrants in ChCh as well.
If you want to live in Auckland then so be it, but stop whinging about house prices being too expensive.
we have known for years that Auckland is not the place to be living for lifestyle
Clearly more moaner than @The Man3. I've lived all over the world, from Toronto, to Bristol, Manila...and worked in a dozen more. Auckland has hands down some of the best opportunities for a great lifestyle in the world
I think those in the lower quartile will find FHBers and make a sale in 2025, they may not get there asking price but will get a sale.
I know several who purchased$2 mill sites near the top, who either do not want to or cannot afford or council says no to their dev plans, they are trying to get out flat or 10% down. They are dreaming, they have small rooms no flow etc etc, great suburbs but not great homes for families spending $2 plus mil... they will have to take a significant loss to move these, many have already been through multiple agents hands with only "wasting everyone's time level" offers.
So at low end in AKL 1.1 mil may sell at 1mil, but the 2.3 may need to drop to 1.8 to offload as they are really all land value. these bigger falls will continue to drive prices averages / mediums down, even if the lower quartile remains flat.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/aucklands-abandoned-builds-spark-fears-ov…
funny interest . co reports medium is down
NZHerald reports average is up
both true...
The Onewoofer writers are inextricably tied to just Pumping the NZ Housing Ponzi.
They are bought and paid property stooges, reliant on the Ponzi for their incomes. They are all selfishly financially compromised and totally self interested advisers.
The have all been BADLY wrong with their multiple predicting screwups since 2022.
Nothing has changed, they will again be wrong with positive price predictions for 2025. The headwinds are not abating.
NZ property is set for a continuation of another -5 to -10% down market in 2025. Chch/Wgtn probably down more.
Yep. The banks are forecasting about 6 to 8% rise in properties in 25. They are a sick joke and their so called Economists must know this won't happen. 2025 might be a bit of a lumpy year. The S&P 500 is very high, unemployment rises and the yield curve uninverts.......
Elsewhere Micheal Bury is alarmed that US home builder spec inventory is reaching insane levels and similar to the 2008 housing bubble peak. He explains that a "spec" home is a home constructed without a buyer ready, with the intention to sell at completion or during construction.
And I know Aotearoa is different. Doesn't need to be hammered home ad nauseum.
I am a potential buyer and need a home, but I don't think that it is a buyer's market. Not even close. Our significant trading partner China is in deflation and has had a 30% drop in house prices with this continuing. Just to maintain property prices in nz a reported further 3.9% of bank lend was required taking the private housing related debt to about 360 billion. I simply don't think that the current values can be maintained long term due to our inability to pay for it all. Both Gov and private sector are operating in deficit. This needs to be addressed but will take a substantial change of direction and attitude from the nation as a whole. The alternative is unthinkable.
The debts owed to / claimed by the Aotearoa Ponzi are the highest in the OECD when you consider the investor segment. That's not necessarily an issue as far as I'm concerned, as long as the 'business valuations' hold.
Both Gov and private sector are operating in deficit
Theoretically speaking you're correct. But in terms of the accounting framework, it doesn't particularly matter.
"I am a potential buyer and need a home, but I don't think that it is a buyer's market. Not even close."
There are owner occupier buyers and non owner occupier buyers in different starting situations when buying. Each buying group is potentially outbid by those below in the following list in the market for EXISTING residential real estate (i.e not new builds)
1) Owner occupiers buyers who are on single incomes (e.g single parent with children)
2) Owner occupier buyers with children who may only have a double income household are being outbid by
3) owner occupier buyers in a double income household with either or all of the following:
i) access to the bank of mum and dad
ii) able to rent out rooms for additional income (e.g Airbnb, boarders, students, etc)
iii) without children
4) non owner occupier buyers who have untapped borrowing power
5) syndicates of non owner occupier buyers combining their financial borrowing power
The removal of interest deductibility by the previous government reduced the pool of potential buyers from the non owner occupier buyer group, thereby reducing buying competition for owner occupier buyers.
With the reintroduction of interest deductibility in the EXISTING residential dwelling market, there is increased buying competition from non owner occupier buyers.
There are non owner occupiers in property buying syndicates who are now willing to go negative cashflow on residential real estate due to their expectation of rising market prices and untaxed capital gains and outbidding many owner occupier buyers.
Remember that non owner occupier buyers have a debt to income constraint of 7x (& above the owner occupier buyer debt to income ratio constraint of 6x).
A couple of single friends aged in their mid 20's are unable to purchase a residential dwelling in Auckland - they have neither the deposit nor borrowing power (even combining their incomes - one is a student, the other in retail). The solution to their accommodation needs was generously provided by their parents of one who chose to buy a newly built 3 BDRM townhouse for them to live in (& a place for the parents to stay when they visit Auckland) in the Eastern suburbs. As I understand, the occupants will pay for rates, insurance. There should be very little maintenance, & the property was purchased with no mortgage.
Previously the occupants lived with the parents who recently sold and relocated out of Auckland.
Technically, but I suggest most are very leveraged and have no capital they can get out, so much is stuck in housing...
It got to a peak 70 trillion valuation at the peak, its down by 19 trillion now, and losses are still growing. Many will be stuck now, unable to sell unless they can loan the shortfall from there bank, ie they are now underwater.
They often did not even rent them out as this would "devalue from new'
An asset that does not have a cashflow is a non productive asset
Want to buy a house?
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-economy-excess-debt-gdp-46c69585 paywalled
much is covered in this you tube below from that article though the presenter is hard to listen to. still the numbers are mind blowing re losses already, its why gov yields are falling, no one knows which banks will fail here. its way way way to big to save
They issued mortgages on unbuilt developments, what could possibly go wrong?
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