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Trade Me Property says residential landlords may need to reduce their asking rents due to an oversupply of rental stock

Property / news
Trade Me Property says residential landlords may need to reduce their asking rents due to an oversupply of rental stock
Homes for rent

Trade Me Property says there is an oversupply of rental properties and asking rents are falling.

The number of properties advertised for rent on the website was up 36% in November compared to the same month last year, and up 4% compared to October.

That puts rental listings on the website at their highest level since 2019.

The median advertised rent was $630 a week in November, down $5 compared to October.

The biggest percentage declines in rent in November compared to October were in Gisborne -7.9%, Otago -7.7%, Marlborough -6.0%, and Hawke's Bay -3.1%.

In Auckland, the country's largest rental market, the median advertised rent declined by -.0.7% in November. See the chart below for the full regional figures.

"As a result of the oversupply, landlords may need to soften [rent] price expectations to meet the current market, which continues to favour tenants," Trade Me Property Customer Director Gavin Lloyd said.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

90 Comments

Aka DGM fodder.

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7

Must be more people buying a house of late, who would have thought.

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5

Or FHB moving back in with the parents because they can no longer afford the mortgage and can't sell due to negative equity.

Or "investors" who thought they could hold without tenants in place until they buy and sell for capital gains which have not eventuated. 

Or the glut of townhouses being completed.

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20

Wait until early 2025 …….

The usual panic to find rental accommodation through January to around Easter - combined with slashed interest rates - will provide impetus to the property market.

Nonetheless, the usual scaremongering of the DGM will continue - as tiresome as it is.

TTP

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3

Bullshit, as usual

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28

Don't be mean. Speaking bullshit is all he knows. 

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18

House Mouse and Retired-Poppy offer another two of their sophisticated, esoteric comments.

In the real world, what the DGM say here makes not one jot of difference.

TTP

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6

Can you add me to RP and HM list of people  who think you talk absolute crap too please. 

Many thanks..

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16

Thanks Tim, how’s the price fixing going?

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15

Get a life.

TTP

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3

Ah yes - get a life indeed cos nothing like a bit of deviousness eh TTP https://comcom.govt.nz/news-and-media/media-releases/2017/property-brok…

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2

Clearly, Amokk, you need to get a life - along with Retired-Poppy and a bunch of other DGM.

TTP

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2

Why? I aren't a criminal talking up the property market on a forum when clearly committing fraudulent activities...

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2

Merry Christmas TTP

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1

Must be more people buying a house of late, who would have thought.

Nope, it's young professionals and young families fleeing the coalition's austerity economic mismanagement disaster. Significant number of owner's are putting their homes up for rent rather than selling in the crash (they are typically better properties than your average rental).

The immigrants coming in are happy to cram more people into one house. 

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9

So both declining rents and increasing rents point to increasing property transactions and I presume price. Got it. 

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2

What do you mean?

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3

Economy is shit

Immigration going negative 

Rents falling 

Just stoked mate,  sorry to disappoint you 

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24

Oh look, there’s that softening rental market we were discussing yesterday.

Depreciation, softening yield and leverage.

Ouch.

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12

Chill out Ice. Not everyone is in a flat spin. Its ok...Mav gets the girl at the end.

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5

Would be a blessing for many struggling families. 

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21

I suspect there are more than just a few accidental landlords, some of whom will regret that status when they experience rent arrears and/or damage caused by their tenants. 

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26

It’s these kind of wild comments. Not everyone has rentals in Otara. Never had any of what you’ve stated in over a decade. 

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7

You are very naïve. Even so called professional tenants can be a disaster. 

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21

You are a dgm. I’m literally a living testament of what I just stated. There is always risk though no doubt.

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6

The return from rentals is not worth the risk. I much prefer commercials and equities.

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12

On a risk weighted basis, the rental returns are as risky and pathetic as the individuals peddling this form of investment as being the be all and end all.

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12

Let me rephrase that for you ex agent - the returns from YOUR rentals (if you have any) may not be worth the risk.

Ironic you called me naive.

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3

They have been excellent actually. I retired in my fifties because of them.

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11

There's no such thing as an oversupply.  Just a price that's too high.

Bring the price down and i'm sure there are multiple families crowded into a single house that would love to get their own rental.  Or 30 somethings still living at home who could now afford to move out.

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47

Great comment, 100% agree. 

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8

Ah you got me.  Yes when there are more houses than people, then i'll let you call that an oversupply.

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0

Honestly I could see the RBNZ needing to go harder to drag this economy out of the toilet ae

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2

Problem with your thinking is that lower rates are a reactive measure indicating a weak economy, not a solution to it.  

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25

And just keep perpetuating the massive structural issues

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7

It's looking like a 4.4% annualised reduction in GDP - Orr is going to need to stimulate the economy the only way he can, through lowering interest rates into 2025.

High 3% by June, house prices go brrrrr.

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0

Great news for Tennants - I am happy to meet market - now please remember if / should the market change so will my strategy

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1

Oooooh , I bet renters are quaking in their boots of your veiled threats ....

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12

Not just residential, the amount of 'FOR LEASE' signs on business, commercial premises is way up.

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13

Office space in central chch and fringe 4 aves, 300sqm and above. Currently at 11 pages on TM. Up from 8 pages the month before.

Rock solid...tui.

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8

-10% for property prices and -10% rents in 2025.  Rejoice.

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15

the massive crash of 2024 turned out to be miniscule in magnitude, the crash has been and gone, 2024 was the darkness before the dawn and 2025 the sun will begin to rise.

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5

You certainly can tell a good joke.

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13

The FED just cut rates again so that's now a guaranteed 25bps cut for us come February, probably more like another 50bps. This is all its going to take if mortgage rates here drop into the 4's, that will be the icing on the cake.

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2

😂🤣 You win. You're the funniest one here. 

Zwifter, back to reality. People are loosing their jobs out there and all you care about is your daily house price valuation. 

Is there more to your life? 

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20

Is there more in your life than coming on here and vomitting in the comments section daily Poopy?

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7

RP has the mop. The vomit was already on the floor.

And many of us have been vomiting for years with the BS spruiking of house prices and the so called rock star economy the extra debt was feeding.

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15

Is there more in your life than coming on here and vomitting in the comments section daily Poopy?

Oh, you're butting in once again - such a habit. Do you ever pause and reflect after posting such "insightful" comments yourself? 

Quick-quick, think of another useless retort! Refresh-refresh-refresh! 🤣😂

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8

Basically summed up what you do DAILY, you’re so deep in your own poop - wipe your eyes.

Your term deposits are not investments by the way. But that’s all you have in your 50s so I can appreciate your sour take on life retired poopy.

The readers on here deserve to know your pathetic position before taking any so called advice from you. 

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4

Iceman, what's with your day in - day out obsession with "poop"?

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10

People post positions and thoughts on here, advice not so much.

 

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6

And what's your reason Man..tell us how good your rental business is doing...??

I see the vacancies are piling up down there?

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5

Just had notice that one of our tenants is not renewing as they are moving out of chch .

Maybe can not afford the extra rent and looking for cheaper?

Anyway been with us for 4 years and will not have any trouble getting good tenants,  as 4 beds and big garaging in sought after area.

 

 

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1

RBNZ will cut 50 but you will only see 1 and 2 y move by 20

TA may be a Spruiker, but he has also sat on a trading floor and understands bank funding channels...

1 and 2y rates are very close to the bottom for this cycle, unless the bottom falls out of the bottom (imagine 20% falls during 2025) then they will cut like a cancer surgeon to try to halt the falls.

 

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11

Yes as I was saying for the last 24 months - those wishing for lower interest rates needed to be careful about what they were wishing for. My view was that rates were only going to drop if the economy was deteriorating and a deteriorating economy isn’t good for house prices (or keeping your job, or keeping your business afloat). In theory it isn’t good for any asset prices which is why I’m somewhat confused about the strength we’ve seen in equities - but of course that could change. 

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5

many top equity names predicting a decent pullback...  breadth is low the mag 7 could cause serious portfolio damage.

 

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3

Powell was also hawkish concerning interest rate trajectory into 2025. There's a lot of water to go under the bridge yet before February. I wouldn't consider a rate cut to be "guaranteed" at all.

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7

So is this from people leaving NZ, or from new builds? If it was new builds, I would expect it to be more in Auckland than Gisborne etc. 

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3

Every embarrassed Landlord on here will still argue their empty rental is still "cashflow positive" so there be no need for useless retorts from such. Imagine what might happen if they dropped their asking price! With actual rental income they'd be extremely cashflow positive!

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11

Says the brainless mid 50 year old on here who considers his term deposits as investments and runs his mouth on here daily. I bet your kids want to be like you when they grow up!

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3

😂🤣🙏 - Right on cue folks!

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11

Wow really showing your financial acumen there. Do you consider betting on horses as investments?

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1

Yikes champ is really getting personal today, bringing people’s kids into it.

Term deposits may just have won the day for RP while your high flying debt addiction is slipping through your fingers….

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1

Fantastic news

au revoir rental inflation 

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18

Rental rates in CHCH will fall hard due to oversupply of not selling new builds... developers bleeding and will need some cashflow.

the iceman will melt and TheMan becomes NotTheMan

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21

Lol, you got me to reply.

You are possibly right that certain type of property rent may flatline in ChCh but they are pretty high for what they are anywsy.

we havent got any of these as rentals so doesnt affect us whatsoever and we are not currently buying to rent out anyway as numbers do not stack up.

We were achieving rents a couple of years ago on purchase  price of around 10% overall and will be higher now, so we all good, so you do not need to worry about “The Man” .

Hope everyone has a great Xmas and a great 2025.

 

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2

people buying rentals now are doing a great service to the renters... carry on...

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4

At least strong GDP growth will underpin the NZ Housing market.....

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10

Exactly - my confusion is around the strength we’ve seen in equities recently (see my post below). 

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3

Around my neck of the woods they have all scuttled overseas....the right track is too bumpy for them.

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5

More or less playing out as the yield curve inversion/normalisation predicted. The only anomaly for me has been the strength we’ve seen in equities the last 12 months - although that could change if GDP continues this trend. 
 

If the yield curve is right, we’ve probably got another 12 months of struggle street before we see the ‘recovery’ that many were looking for the last year. Ie a point when lower interest rates actually flow through to those that need them the most - the question is how much damage is done by then. 

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5

Those prepositioned with cash will be able to by distressed assets at great prices as credit will be harder to achieve, and cash offers are just that.   Those who time the market always beat those who blindly believe time in the market is better.

 

 

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6

Yep. Those with a cash cannon ready to go sleep easy this xmas. 2025 could very likely be the year. Those preparing will have a belt of ammo li ked up and ready to fire.

Kaaaaarrrrkkkkkk.

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7

GDP falling. Immigration falling. Jobs falling. Auctions falling Educated youth to Aussie up. Empty specu boxes up. Listings up. Bankruptcy up.

When are the banks going to start shooting the over leveraged...?

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13

I agree the number of townhouses that have been built is a real worry if you are living or investing in this market. Its pretty obvious the build quality and planning has been up to the usual Kiwi "she will be all right" standards but I gave up years ago on getting anything done right in this country. I fully expect the arse to fall out of this market but the problem is decent builds on stand alone sections will only go up in price as a result.

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1

So effectively….

”It will only be isolated to segments that suit me”

Well isn’t that fantastic and suspiciously convenient….

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5

once these crap ones fall 50% my really cool old house next door will go up 50% in value....

can you not see the logic.... 

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8

The logic is as follows. Massive oversupply of crap housing being built, prices drop, fewer decent builds available on stand alone sites so the price of these goes up. Supply and demand, pretty simple. I'm not talking 50% but you could easily get a swing 10% in both directions.

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1

That's called a non sequitur. 

The actual logical outcome is; prices fall for townhouses. People who were otherwise looking at an old freehold 3-bed villa see they can now get a brand new 3-bed townhouse for 100-150k less. This reduces the demand for the stand alone site, which to nobody's surprise puts downward pressure on the price. 

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8

The problem with this line of logic is that it means that even 'great quality houses' cannot be insulated from the property market crash.

This is something some cannot process due to:

  • either it collapsing their whole worldview that you never lose with property and/or
  • they stand to lose if this line of argument becomes more accepted/known to the wider public
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4

No matter how cheap the townhouses get, people still wont buy them.  They dont have proper kitchens, a garage, a back yard, enough wardrobe space or any storage.  They are completely useless for people who have kids/pets and who own things.    They are designed for people who get off a plane with a single suitcase.  Older people dont want them because they have stairs. They are also stinking hot and nobody can sleep in the upstairs bedrooms (at least without spending a fortune on air conditioning).  

More and more people will be forced to pay higher prices for standalone family homes, as less and less of them are built.  But falling prices of crappy townhouses are good for renters and other temporary occupants as landlords will be able to buy them cheap.  

The other winners are all the middle aged newly divorced men who got nothing in the divorce, who cannot cook for themselves so Uber Eats everything, and who havent bought clothes for themselves since the noughties - these townhouses are also perfect for them. 

 

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0

It is actually already happening.  Newly built townhouses are being discounted month by month, and still they cant sell them.  Meanwhile, older family homes literally in the same street are selling for several hundred thousand over RV and online valuations.  

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0

Rental inflation down=CPI down=OCR down. Good times all round

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1

Housing market dead and buried.

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3

Certainly not where I live, but if it makes you feel better, then believe what you want!

Merry Xmas to all!

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1

So can tenants demand a rent reduction in line with market? 

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5

Yes. Of course. 

If the rent is too high

If a landlord is charging a lot more than is being charged for similar properties in the area, tenants should speak to the landlord to negotiate a reduction in rent. The tenant will need to have evidence that their rent is a lot higher than rent for similar houses in the same area. If the landlord declines the rent reduction request, the tenant can apply to the Tenancy Tribunal.

If you have a fixed-term tenancy, you can only apply to the Tenancy Tribunal for a market rent review within:  3 months of the beginning of the tenancy, or 3 months of the date of the last rent review.

https://www.tenancy.govt.nz/rent-bond-and-bills/rent/increasing-rent/

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3

Would be an interesting test case. 

Say hypothetically the market rent falls significantly, can an existing tenant that's had no rent increases for a couple of years request the Tenancy Tribunal determine a rent reduction on the basis that it's no longer inline with market rent?  

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1

"Demand"? Probably a bad idea.

"Request"? Probably a good idea. And every tenant should - if their LL says no - start looking around.

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0