Trade Me Property says there is an oversupply of rental properties and asking rents are falling.
The number of properties advertised for rent on the website was up 36% in November compared to the same month last year, and up 4% compared to October.
That puts rental listings on the website at their highest level since 2019.
The median advertised rent was $630 a week in November, down $5 compared to October.
The biggest percentage declines in rent in November compared to October were in Gisborne -7.9%, Otago -7.7%, Marlborough -6.0%, and Hawke's Bay -3.1%.
In Auckland, the country's largest rental market, the median advertised rent declined by -.0.7% in November. See the chart below for the full regional figures.
"As a result of the oversupply, landlords may need to soften [rent] price expectations to meet the current market, which continues to favour tenants," Trade Me Property Customer Director Gavin Lloyd said.
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135 Comments
Aka DGM fodder.
Must be more people buying a house of late, who would have thought.
Or FHB moving back in with the parents because they can no longer afford the mortgage and can't sell due to negative equity.
Or "investors" who thought they could hold without tenants in place until they buy and sell for capital gains which have not eventuated.
Or the glut of townhouses being completed.
Wait until early 2025 …….
The usual panic to find rental accommodation through January to around Easter - combined with slashed interest rates - will provide impetus to the property market.
Nonetheless, the usual scaremongering of the DGM will continue - as tiresome as it is.
TTP
Bullshit, as usual
Don't be mean. Speaking bullshit is all he knows.
House Mouse and Retired-Poppy offer another two of their sophisticated, esoteric comments.
In the real world, what the DGM say here makes not one jot of difference.
TTP
Can you add me to RP and HM list of people who think you talk absolute crap too please.
Many thanks..
Thanks Tim, how’s the price fixing going?
Get a life.
TTP
Ah yes - get a life indeed cos nothing like a bit of deviousness eh TTP https://comcom.govt.nz/news-and-media/media-releases/2017/property-brok…
Clearly, Amokk, you need to get a life - along with Retired-Poppy and a bunch of other DGM.
TTP
Why? I aren't a criminal talking up the property market on a forum when clearly committing fraudulent activities...
Most of us have a life abiding by the law, thus we still have credibility. Either way, it's Friday, take a load off team, Christmas is almost upon us and it has been a hell of a turbulent year.
Merry Christmas TTP
Must be more people buying a house of late, who would have thought.
Nope, it's young professionals and young families fleeing the coalition's austerity economic mismanagement disaster. Significant number of owner's are putting their homes up for rent rather than selling in the crash (they are typically better properties than your average rental).
The immigrants coming in are happy to cram more people into one house.
So both declining rents and increasing rents point to increasing property transactions and I presume price. Got it.
What do you mean?
Economy is shit
Immigration going negative
Rents falling
Just stoked mate, sorry to disappoint you
Oh look, there’s that softening rental market we were discussing yesterday.
Depreciation, softening yield and leverage.
Ouch.
Chill out Ice. Not everyone is in a flat spin. Its ok...Mav gets the girl at the end.
Iceman ...bit cold out there in property investment land ....
He's a wee anecdote for you ....
I was a property manager for 2 years in the mid 2000's in central Auckland (didn't do apartments though) and in the whole time, I never put out a "For Rent" sign on the front yard etc. Always had more than enough responses from our media advertising.
Now I am seeing them quite a bit, over the same area, so it tells me rental demand for these properties is down or they are asking too much rent vs. what the tenant can afford.
So you can call people like me DGM's till the cows come home ...but it ain't gonna change anything
Would be a blessing for many struggling families.
I suspect there are more than just a few accidental landlords, some of whom will regret that status when they experience rent arrears and/or damage caused by their tenants.
It’s these kind of wild comments. Not everyone has rentals in Otara. Never had any of what you’ve stated in over a decade.
You are very naïve. Even so called professional tenants can be a disaster.
You are a dgm. I’m literally a living testament of what I just stated. There is always risk though no doubt.
The return from rentals is not worth the risk. I much prefer commercials and equities.
On a risk weighted basis, the rental returns are as risky and pathetic as the individuals peddling this form of investment as being the be all and end all.
Let me rephrase that for you ex agent - the returns from YOUR rentals (if you have any) may not be worth the risk.
Ironic you called me naive.
They have been excellent actually. I retired in my fifties because of them.
There's no such thing as an oversupply. Just a price that's too high.
Bring the price down and i'm sure there are multiple families crowded into a single house that would love to get their own rental. Or 30 somethings still living at home who could now afford to move out.
Great comment, 100% agree.
Ah you got me. Yes when there are more houses than people, then i'll let you call that an oversupply.
Well you buy some houses then and rent them out at half market rent if you think you are such a do gooder. In fact, whatever business you are in (if any) sell your wares below cost.
"Well you buy some houses then and rent them out at half market rent if you think you are such a do gooder. In fact, whatever business you are in (if any) sell your wares below cost."
Below market rent might already be above an existing owner's current cost.
E.g bought in 2000, and now has low LVR mortgage (or mortgage free) and chose not to undertake equity release / deposit recycling to buy over priced real estate.
The only expense for a mortgage free landlord is rates, insurance, maintenance, & taxes. No interest cost. Their cost is much lower than for a recent purchaser in 2020 - 2022 period using high leverage.
Well if you're treating it as a business then they should be accounting for the cost of capital, i.e. what return they could be getting on that equity elsewhere. Same way a FHB should include the forgone interest their deposit could be earning when they buy a house.
"if you're treating it as a business then they should be accounting for the cost of capital, i.e. what return they could be getting on that equity elsewhere. Same way a FHB should include the forgone interest their deposit could be earning when they buy a house. "
Yes, for the financially savvy and financially literate. Most households in NZ are not financially savvy or financially literate.
Market rent is not the rent at which a property sits empty. Nor is it the rent which covers your particular costs. Market rent is the rent at which someone is willing to rent it.
that be the truth
Honestly I could see the RBNZ needing to go harder to drag this economy out of the toilet ae
Problem with your thinking is that lower rates are a reactive measure indicating a weak economy, not a solution to it.
And just keep perpetuating the massive structural issues
Are you suggesting that low interest rates don't stimulate the economy? 2021 begs to differ.
2021: Had the LVR's still been in place, every Tom Dick and Harry couldn't have accessed $1m to throw at housing and we would have lower private debt levels than currently as prices, by means of access to debt, would not have reached such crazy peaks. Low interest rates were only one of the factors. Add in hopeless things like the cost of living payment, the COVID subsidies where so many spent money as they had nothing else to do, and who could forget people borrowing against their houses as the paper value went up. Did this help our economy? Well it appeared that things were fine, but what goes up must come down, and we are reaping the downturn of the economy as a result. Perhaps if you owned a house prior to 2021 you benefitted from this, sold up and took the large capital gains for other uses, but someone was left holding the bag if you did, and the youth are voting with their feet and heading overseas where they have hope of a financial future.
It's looking like a 4.4% annualised reduction in GDP - Orr is going to need to stimulate the economy the only way he can, through lowering interest rates into 2025.
High 3% by June, house prices go brrrrr.
Great news for Tennants - I am happy to meet market - now please remember if / should the market change so will my strategy
Oooooh , I bet renters are quaking in their boots of your veiled threats ....
Not just residential, the amount of 'FOR LEASE' signs on business, commercial premises is way up.
Office space in central chch and fringe 4 aves, 300sqm and above. Currently at 11 pages on TM. Up from 8 pages the month before.
Rock solid...tui.
-10% for property prices and -10% rents in 2025. Rejoice.
the massive crash of 2024 turned out to be miniscule in magnitude, the crash has been and gone, 2024 was the darkness before the dawn and 2025 the sun will begin to rise.
You certainly can tell a good joke.
The FED just cut rates again so that's now a guaranteed 25bps cut for us come February, probably more like another 50bps. This is all its going to take if mortgage rates here drop into the 4's, that will be the icing on the cake.
😂🤣 You win. You're the funniest one here.
Zwifter, back to reality. People are loosing their jobs out there and all you care about is your daily house price valuation.
Is there more to your life?
Is there more in your life than coming on here and vomitting in the comments section daily Poopy?
RP has the mop. The vomit was already on the floor.
And many of us have been vomiting for years with the BS spruiking of house prices and the so called rock star economy the extra debt was feeding.
Is there more in your life than coming on here and vomitting in the comments section daily Poopy?
Oh, you're butting in once again - such a habit. Do you ever pause and reflect after posting such "insightful" comments yourself?
Quick-quick, think of another useless retort! Refresh-refresh-refresh! 🤣😂
Basically summed up what you do DAILY, you’re so deep in your own poop - wipe your eyes.
Your term deposits are not investments by the way. But that’s all you have in your 50s so I can appreciate your sour take on life retired poopy.
The readers on here deserve to know your pathetic position before taking any so called advice from you.
Iceman, what's with your day in - day out obsession with "poop"?
People post positions and thoughts on here, advice not so much.
And what's your reason Man..tell us how good your rental business is doing...??
I see the vacancies are piling up down there?
Just had notice that one of our tenants is not renewing as they are moving out of chch .
Maybe can not afford the extra rent and looking for cheaper?
Anyway been with us for 4 years and will not have any trouble getting good tenants, as 4 beds and big garaging in sought after area.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/richie-mccaw-and-wife-gemma-move-f…
Seems everyone's moving out of christchurch
Wouldnt be thinking that everyone is leaving ChCh at all?
Certainly more people moving to CHCH than leaving as it has been labelled the happiest City in NZ.
McCaw maybe can not afford to live in ChCh with the escalating house prices?
Ha - well a move to Wanaka wont help with that then…….
Yes RP there certainly is. I come here literally for the shits & giggles over what you put into print. People lose their jobs mate, I lost mine in 1987. Pretty sure that most people over the age of 50 have been there and done that in life.
RBNZ will cut 50 but you will only see 1 and 2 y move by 20
TA may be a Spruiker, but he has also sat on a trading floor and understands bank funding channels...
1 and 2y rates are very close to the bottom for this cycle, unless the bottom falls out of the bottom (imagine 20% falls during 2025) then they will cut like a cancer surgeon to try to halt the falls.
Yes as I was saying for the last 24 months - those wishing for lower interest rates needed to be careful about what they were wishing for. My view was that rates were only going to drop if the economy was deteriorating and a deteriorating economy isn’t good for house prices (or keeping your job, or keeping your business afloat). In theory it isn’t good for any asset prices which is why I’m somewhat confused about the strength we’ve seen in equities - but of course that could change.
many top equity names predicting a decent pullback... breadth is low the mag 7 could cause serious portfolio damage.
Powell was also hawkish concerning interest rate trajectory into 2025. There's a lot of water to go under the bridge yet before February. I wouldn't consider a rate cut to be "guaranteed" at all.
Ok. Add in adjustment for inflation. Yeah...it's just a tinsy winsy gully.
So is this from people leaving NZ, or from new builds? If it was new builds, I would expect it to be more in Auckland than Gisborne etc.
Every embarrassed Landlord on here will still argue their empty rental is still "cashflow positive" so there be no need for useless retorts from such. Imagine what might happen if they dropped their asking price! With actual rental income they'd be extremely cashflow positive!
Says the brainless mid 50 year old on here who considers his term deposits as investments and runs his mouth on here daily. I bet your kids want to be like you when they grow up!
😂🤣🙏 - Right on cue folks!
Wow really showing your financial acumen there. Do you consider betting on horses as investments?
Yikes champ is really getting personal today, bringing people’s kids into it.
Term deposits may just have won the day for RP while your high flying debt addiction is slipping through your fingers….
Fantastic news
au revoir rental inflation
Rental rates in CHCH will fall hard due to oversupply of not selling new builds... developers bleeding and will need some cashflow.
the iceman will melt and TheMan becomes NotTheMan
Lol, you got me to reply.
You are possibly right that certain type of property rent may flatline in ChCh but they are pretty high for what they are anywsy.
we havent got any of these as rentals so doesnt affect us whatsoever and we are not currently buying to rent out anyway as numbers do not stack up.
We were achieving rents a couple of years ago on purchase price of around 10% overall and will be higher now, so we all good, so you do not need to worry about “The Man” .
Hope everyone has a great Xmas and a great 2025.
people buying rentals now are doing a great service to the renters... carry on...
At least strong GDP growth will underpin the NZ Housing market.....
Exactly - my confusion is around the strength we’ve seen in equities recently (see my post below).
Around my neck of the woods they have all scuttled overseas....the right track is too bumpy for them.
More or less playing out as the yield curve inversion/normalisation predicted. The only anomaly for me has been the strength we’ve seen in equities the last 12 months - although that could change if GDP continues this trend.
If the yield curve is right, we’ve probably got another 12 months of struggle street before we see the ‘recovery’ that many were looking for the last year. Ie a point when lower interest rates actually flow through to those that need them the most - the question is how much damage is done by then.
Those prepositioned with cash will be able to by distressed assets at great prices as credit will be harder to achieve, and cash offers are just that. Those who time the market always beat those who blindly believe time in the market is better.
Yep. Those with a cash cannon ready to go sleep easy this xmas. 2025 could very likely be the year. Those preparing will have a belt of ammo li ked up and ready to fire.
Kaaaaarrrrkkkkkk.
GDP falling. Immigration falling. Jobs falling. Auctions falling Educated youth to Aussie up. Empty specu boxes up. Listings up. Bankruptcy up.
When are the banks going to start shooting the over leveraged...?
I agree the number of townhouses that have been built is a real worry if you are living or investing in this market. Its pretty obvious the build quality and planning has been up to the usual Kiwi "she will be all right" standards but I gave up years ago on getting anything done right in this country. I fully expect the arse to fall out of this market but the problem is decent builds on stand alone sections will only go up in price as a result.
So effectively….
”It will only be isolated to segments that suit me”
Well isn’t that fantastic and suspiciously convenient….
once these crap ones fall 50% my really cool old house next door will go up 50% in value....
can you not see the logic....
The logic is as follows. Massive oversupply of crap housing being built, prices drop, fewer decent builds available on stand alone sites so the price of these goes up. Supply and demand, pretty simple. I'm not talking 50% but you could easily get a swing 10% in both directions.
That's called a non sequitur.
The actual logical outcome is; prices fall for townhouses. People who were otherwise looking at an old freehold 3-bed villa see they can now get a brand new 3-bed townhouse for 100-150k less. This reduces the demand for the stand alone site, which to nobody's surprise puts downward pressure on the price.
The problem with this line of logic is that it means that even 'great quality houses' cannot be insulated from the property market crash.
This is something some cannot process due to:
- either it collapsing their whole worldview that you never lose with property and/or
- they stand to lose if this line of argument becomes more accepted/known to the wider public
Peoples view of value may change on a timeline .... dependent on the facts being accepted.
And the differences in generational views on different forms of investments.
No matter how cheap the townhouses get, people still wont buy them. They dont have proper kitchens, a garage, a back yard, enough wardrobe space or any storage. They are completely useless for people who have kids/pets and who own things. They are designed for people who get off a plane with a single suitcase. Older people dont want them because they have stairs. They are also stinking hot and nobody can sleep in the upstairs bedrooms (at least without spending a fortune on air conditioning).
More and more people will be forced to pay higher prices for standalone family homes, as less and less of them are built. But falling prices of crappy townhouses are good for renters and other temporary occupants as landlords will be able to buy them cheap.
The other winners are all the middle aged newly divorced men who got nothing in the divorce, who cannot cook for themselves so Uber Eats everything, and who havent bought clothes for themselves since the noughties - these townhouses are also perfect for them.
"No matter how cheap the townhouses get, people still wont buy them."
There will be some price when somone buys. I'd be buying them if priced at $1.00.
People who want a family home still wont buy them. Even if they cost $1 they are not going to want to squeeze their family into a 2 bedroom shoebox, when they can afford a nice house. Thats like saying if a motorbike cost $1 people who want to buy a SUV will buy a motorbike instead. Only the same type of person who would have bought a townhouse at $1M will buy them at $1 - investors, Kainga Ora, FHB with no kids, professional couple, newly arrived immigrants etc. Not families.
Correct K.W. I really didn't think I would have to use so many words for some people to get it on here and they could work it out for themselves.
Add in brits, as they seem to love double story as it reminds them of home where it is arguably the majority of housing.
It is actually already happening. Newly built townhouses are being discounted month by month, and still they cant sell them. Meanwhile, older family homes literally in the same street are selling for several hundred thousand over RV and online valuations.
"Meanwhile, older family homes literally in the same street are selling for several hundred thousand over RV and online valuations. "
Are these properties being bought by
1) property developers?
2) landbankers?
3) Non owner occupiers to put another dwelling in the bank yard? And rent out in
a) long term rental market?
b) short term rental market?
4) other?
They are being bought by owner occupiers. They are $2M+ homes in a good school area. They are not crappy rundown houses.
Rental inflation down=CPI down=OCR down. Good times all round
Housing market dead and buried.
Certainly not where I live, but if it makes you feel better, then believe what you want!
Merry Xmas to all!
Lovely anecdote.
Happy holidays.
So can tenants demand a rent reduction in line with market?
Yes. Of course.
If the rent is too high
If a landlord is charging a lot more than is being charged for similar properties in the area, tenants should speak to the landlord to negotiate a reduction in rent. The tenant will need to have evidence that their rent is a lot higher than rent for similar houses in the same area. If the landlord declines the rent reduction request, the tenant can apply to the Tenancy Tribunal.
If you have a fixed-term tenancy, you can only apply to the Tenancy Tribunal for a market rent review within: 3 months of the beginning of the tenancy, or 3 months of the date of the last rent review.
https://www.tenancy.govt.nz/rent-bond-and-bills/rent/increasing-rent/
This is another of NZ's core issues, lack of negotiation skills and self-confidence in doing so. Another reason why people get minimal pay rises and complain that the minimum wage needs to go up when they could have simply documented their own achievements, and brought these to the table each year when the rem review is up on the table to push for a greater increase than what is offered.
To be fair, it's practically impossible to get a rent reduction in normal BAU circumstances.
The tenant will need to have evidence that their rent is a lot higher than rent for similar houses in the same area.
Then as someone else said, the moving costs are not significant and asking for a rent reduction and going to TT is a pretty sure-fire way a landlords family turning up and needing the property or rent increases to move you along.
No hassle, plenty of other places to choose from currently so they can let their 'family' have it (if that really [never] is the case), or suffer an empty rental for a few months and actually pay the mortgage themselves for once as a result (gasp)
Would be an interesting test case.
Say hypothetically the market rent falls significantly, can an existing tenant that's had no rent increases for a couple of years request the Tenancy Tribunal determine a rent reduction on the basis that it's no longer inline with market rent?
"Demand"? Probably a bad idea.
"Request"? Probably a good idea. And every tenant should - if their LL says no - start looking around.
Good point, probably best to have some alternatives lined up before you even ask.
Have moved rented residence a few times.
People should calculate:
1) rent reduction per week x 52 (assuming similar area)
2) offset against moving costs
Probably needs a 10% or more reduction in rent to be financially worthwhile.
Many other factors however. What if transport costs are significantly reduced by the move as the area is closer to work, kids school etc. I've moved multiple times around the country and the world as he rent was higher, but overall savings was greater due to savings on other costs e.g closer to larger supermarket and work, not needing to take public transport, bikeable from home.
Which is exactly what we did. Rents were dropping before the borders reopened, and our landlord had suggested a rent drop might be in order. Our rent was already the most expensive in our neighbouring suburbs for the type of property- but when we asked he decided no.
So we left. The property sat empty for a month, and he asked us what he could do to attract a new tenant. We said it was a great property, he was a great landlord - drop the rent. He ended up dropping it to what we'd asked for, and had a new tenant within two weeks. But he'd lost over a months income in the process.
We are. Commercially. Due to leverage nature of LL we are already planning a move.
An average rental price in the $600s probably favours the banks more than anyone else. Still eyewatering for a renter like me
Taxpayer is bleeding money propping up the rental market , renters will struggle to get better value in a market that is regulated favorably towards the landlord . 364000 prices are not where they would be without the aid of the Government ... When will this market stand on its own feet instead of relying on the public purse? Landlords will say they provide a public service housing these tenants but reality is everything is out of whack to the tune of 2 billion dollars a year.
"Following a NZ Herald Official Information Act request, the government revealed in the year to January 31 2024, it paid out NZ$2.34 billion to 364,000 renters and mortgage holders."(The Conversation)
i have no idea how much if any of our tenants are receiving rent subsidies from the NZ taxpayer.
Probably be some but none are on the unemployment benefit as far as I am aware.
The subsidies paid would be a drop in the bucket compared to what it would be costing the government if it wasn't for the private sector providing housing.
Landlords deserve to be treated with big respect for what they are providing the country.
Yes. Seen a number of property investment calculations by property promoters for property "investors".
In the first year, the property "investor" needs to "top up" their property investment by $5000 - $17,000 and requires topping up for 10 years. The "investment" is cashflow breakeven in year 11 (i.e no "top up" required).
Meanwhile the house price growth assumption is 5-7% p.a.
So the investment is really reliant mostly on the capital gain which is expected to be tax free.
If there was 1-3 percent house price growth rate, the returns would be much lower and less attractive.
So as values drop, as they have recently, it's negative leveraged loss, and propping up the cashflow. Sounds like the owner is last sucker. Ask the investors in Du Val. Offering 10% when banks were offering 1-2% was always a suckers con.
Self-fulfilling delusion. You are well and truly detached from reality.
Add the 2.9 billion in tax breaks and it seems landlords are raking up 5b in taxpayer debt .... this market is out in space and needs to be bought down to earth... taxpayers cannot afford this blatant waste of money...
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/03/12/cuts-to-public-services-as-landlords…
Sounds like they found the ferry money right there
Down worry property investors/speculators/slum-lords I have it on very VERY good authority that rents only go up and will never come down.... /s
Interest rates down - savings passed onto renters?
Interest deductibility back - savings passed onto renters?
High supply - put prices up?
Thousands of renters moving to Aussie - put prices up?
Immigrants arriving are low skill and low wage - put prices up?
Am I doing it right?
Trade Me Property says residential landlords may need to reduce their asking rents due to an oversupply of rental stock
Those landlords here that insist rents are directly connected to their costs better get onto TM quick smart and educate them that oversupply is irrelevant to their costs (and therefore asking rents).
Why is Welly holding up , more on sale than rent ?
Minor dwelling cant come fast enough.
But alas it will get delayed due to our infra red zones thanks watercare. Bunch of useless bunch like the council
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