Residential property values are now bouncing along the bottom and are showing little or no growth, according to Quotable Value (QV).
The latest QV House Price Index shows average home values decreased by 0.8% nationally over the three months to the end of October compared with a 1.6% average decline in the three months to the end of September, and a 2% drop in the three months to the end of August.
The country's average dwelling value is now $902,231, just 0.3% ($2839) less than at the start of the year. See the chart below for the regional values.
"New Zealand's housing market remains largely flat overall, with essentially no growth to speak of during the month of October itself, neither up nor down, and only a slight decline nationally this quarter of less than 1% on average," QV Operations Manager James Wilson said.
"Home values have flattened out again after some more sizeable yet still relatively modest reductions throughout the winter months, but they are still showing no signs of taking off anytime soon," he said.
"This is reflective of a housing market that is still severely constricted by strong economic headwinds, despite recent interest rate reductions, which will take some time to phase through.
"Likewise, our latest housing data also shows that home values have continued to slowly level out across most of New Zealand's main urban areas, with the average three month rolling rate of reduction slowing in Auckland at -0.8%, Christchurch -0.2%, Hamilton -0.6%, Tauranga -1.6% and Dunedin -0.1%."
Even Wellington's average rate of home value decline has slowed from -3.2% to -2.3% this quarter, though that figure is more than twice the national average.
"Heightened job insecurity is being more keenly felt in the capital. Otherwise, most of New Zealand's main centres appear to be bouncing along the bottom," Wilson said.
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58 Comments
Residential property values are now bouncing along the bottom and are showing little or no growth, according to Quotable Value (QV).
That's about right.
Bouncing along the bottom... or still searching for the bottom?
QV doing its part to keep the hope alive.
Trend is still down, no bottom found yet.
yep, bouncing along the bottom till the stock overhang clears up, then they should start increasing slowly again, assuming the RBNZ doesn't overcook the OCR cuts and send things to the moon again.
Looking back at OCR vs mortgage rates over the last 25 years it seems some further cuts are already priced in, unless banks accept to lower their margins this time.
"Showing no sign of taking off anytime soon"
As expected, there is no hurry - no need for FOMO. None of this August 23 or Christmas 2024; "last chance to buy" spruik talk. When adjusted for inflation - especially, home prices are certainly still falling.
would we ever catch you saying "hurry, now is your time to buy"? i highly doubt it, retired people generally don't like to hurry.
God only knows why you felt it necessary to zero in on retired people. This is all about the next generation of FHB's not getting ripped off.
Like - hello?
@poppy probably because you called investors spruikers? you not innocent Poppy
By definition, your comment makes no sense at all. Why would anyone call an investor a Spruiker? A short term investor is likely a speculator or flipper. A long term investor is exactly that, a long term investor.
For purposes of your your education; Property investment promoters, or "spruikers", invite people to their 'wealth creation' seminars, often for free, with the promise of investment tips
There are a few property besotted individuals on here that conveniently cast aside the costs and risks to continue offering their financial tips to guaranteed financial success. I think these people display strong Spruiker like characteristics.
@retired poppy - you know your comments can be inflamatory - then you take the moral highway - so maybe my comments don't make sense - I still feel you needle people.- you cant fool all the people all of the time
BuyLowSellHigh + Flying High = safeashouses, who's the one trying to fool the masses here? You've always taken issue with my comments and now is no exception 😂🤣
I hope house prices further reduce for the sake of young people finishing their tertiary education who we want to keep in New Zealand.
You have made an incorrect wish.. you're going to be bashed by the spruikers
Unlikely i'd say. Falling interest rates. Unemployment rate still better than the john key rockstar economy days. Positive immigration. Interest deductibility. Enormous replacement cost.
I dont think prices will take off anytime soon. But those waiting for further meaningful drops might be disappointed.
So FHB can take their time and build the biggest deposits (to shorten the term) they can, right?
Spot on! Not to mention lowball offers in this very much a low volume buyers market are more likely to hit the target. I see this as a market with a growing glut of overvalued homes, this market is very top heavy.
My gut feeling is that there is more of a risk in waiting (that house prices do go up) compared to buying now (that prices do go down). If I was a FHB I would be looking now while you can take your time to find the right property. If they wait until there is evidence of prices increasing, they may have to rush in.
Well seeing as it took 12 months to find mine it pays to be actively looking because you have to wade through endless rubbish.
That-a-boy Zwifter, you move them there goal posts as far out as the actual real time happenings dictate.
Get a life, Retired-Poppy.
Spending all your day here is not healthy.
"Everything in moderation" works much better.
TTP
Everyone knows they'll save a bigger deposit so they can borrow more.
Your sarcasm is almost too subtle.
Maybe that's why the banks are starting to ease off on the LEM's? That extra few percent of interest rate premium is eating into their long game of bigger loans.
Unemployment rate still better than the john key rockstar economy days
'There Isn't Enough Opportunities For Youth': Teenagers Struggling To Get Summer Jobs | Scoop News
There is a heated race for limited entry-level work and older, experienced migrants willing to accept low pay are obviously better placed for it.
The number of filled jobs in the age range of 15-30 reported by Stats actually declined by tens of thousands in each month from April 2024 to August 2024.
Positive immigration.
Pleased to find someone else that agrees with me immigration, all else being equal, makes housing more expensive.
usually when house prices drops, it also means economy is sh*t, and when house prices taking off, it's when everyone is happy.
just saying.
This is despite the initial response to rate cuts.. loss of migration and unemployment will govern the mood over the next year
Unemployment rate in the john key rockstar economy was between 6 -7.3% and house prices were rising. Today unemployment is at 4.9%.
Why do you think the unemployment rate will have more influence on house prices than it did 10 years ago?
.
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Agree. We are now in a position where we can only attract the migrants other countries don't want. And our own skilled next generation is leaving after getting trained here. Anyone with skills losing their job simply Flys to Oz and settles there with a better job
Hence unemployment is rising a.mongst the unskilled
There are for sure job vacancies for skilled staff.. and a shortage of those... but if you are a young smart person with in demand skills.. why would you choose nz to live and develop a career and family.
A dgm.. I know.. if one disagrees with ongoing unsustainable house price rises... or one doesn't desire high house price rises that damage the mid to long term economy. then one is a dgm.never mind that one wants a stronger economy.. to make more money from productive business, to grow nz inc and so on.
Lol.
Based on recent interest in NZ real estate, the recent US election might have some bearing on the skills of immigrants moving here.
Still eye-watering multiples of the average income.
Still no clearance at these values
Bigger, faster rates cuts needed.
Or... bigger faster price cuts needed. Just needs the banks to start selling up those failing to meet debt servicing.
Hold on tight!
Now that orange man will be the POTUS for the next 4 years, don't bet on inflation will be coming down and hence interest cut..It's likely that inflation will go the other way round, up it goes baby!
The big DT will be carrying out his promised tariffs policy, everyone will be impacted.
Don't expect inflation to go down and more interest rates cut!
When did that guy deliver on any promise?
Serious question
How can a decrease mean 'bouncing along the bottom'? Come on QV tell the truth and say prices still dropping
These quarterly figures are old but if anyone had the ability to do some basic analysis they clearly show Auckland has already passed the bottom and turned upwards fairly sharply.
3 months to Aug -2.8
3 months to Sept -1.7
3 months to Oct -0.8
Sharper upturn for suburbs with fewer townhouses.
Grazie mille 🥂
I'm struggling with the maths, can you show me please?
Turned up? You're literally showing in your figures it's still going down, albeit at a slower pace.
You people must have been through the NZ public education system?
Or you could go look at the graph on the QV website and discover it did in fact increase for the last month.. the (All NZ) QV HPI for Sept was 2290, and for October was 2291. A tiny increase, but an increase, which is not a drop. So no, its not going down, and the direction change is positive.
He was talking about Auckland. Sorry not great a maths, still waiting for Cote to explain how it has reached the bottom rather than declining.
You are seriously calling a single digit movement over a single month a direction change?
No, it shows that the bigger falls between May, June and July have fallen out of the rolling average.. Subsequent months have still been declining, just at a lower rate. It seems to happen around the same time every year, almost as if there is a seasonal trend..
You might also note that the upturn you speak of is in fact less pronounced that what is shown in the data for the same period last year. It will be interesting to see how how long this "sharp upturn" lasts this time around.
The October 2024 report doesn't seem to be on their website yet (unless I'm looking in the wrong place).
It's still in the spin dryer on full heat.
Residential property values are now bouncing along the bottom and are showing little or no growth, according to Quotable Value (QV).
And long may it continue. Maybe, just maybe there will come a day where our young people, who have left in their droves because they see no future here in NZ, will be drawn back to their country of birth where they can afford to buy a house and expect a good standard of living.
I can assure you that people are out and about in Christchurch, and buying property!
prices are not dropping anytime soon here, and people are trying to buy and settling when the interest rates drop a bit more.
I appreciate that it is clearly more expensive in other parts of NZ but then if you do not like it, do something about it!
Three in Five are under mortgage stress. With this it is unlikely that house prices will accelerate.
Why do people rush in when if they all just held off, they might get better value ?
The real estate community and banks are incentivised to higher prices.
How are buyers getting informed? The financials just do not add up for newcomers.
From the article
- Mortgage stress is when repayments are 30% or more than household income.
So not actually whether people are experiencing stress.
How stressful having 30% of your income going out as mortgage payments depends on the household structure and income. Household with 3 kids and an $100k pa income, yeah, thats probably stressful. DINKs with a $300k household income are laughing all the way the bank.
I've always had an issue with this measure, surely there must be more science behind it than a finger-in-the-air percentage.
Yup. It costs roughly the same amount per week to feed the average person (ignoring lifestyle creep). A lot easier to do that with $200k p.a. after mortgage payments than $70k p.a.
I'm a little confused by this article - these stats don't seem to reflect what is happening on the ground in Auckland. Open homes are (mostly) rather busy at the "average price" and a little above level of the market; and a number of my friends are constantly missing out at auction with the prices paid on most properties way over expectations. It will be interesting to see what the data for the next Quarter looks like it could be very different - if it is even accurate.
New Zealand house prices are cheap compared to Australia.
Watched an auction online in Sydney.
Old fibrolite house sold for $4million,
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