Barfoot & Thompson sold less properties in October than it did in September but the average and median selling prices both increased.
The real estate agency, which is the largest in Auckland, sold 969 residential properties in October, down slightly from 986 in September, although it was still the most properties it has sold in the month of October since 2020.
The average selling price increased to $1,129,950 in October from $1,081,269 in September, (+4.5%), while the median selling price increased to $955,000 from $934,500 in September (+2.2%).
The increases in the average and median selling prices followed three consecutive months of declines.
However, the really big increase for the month was for the number of new listings received by the agency.
The 2361 new listings was the most Barfoot's has received in the month of October in at least 20 years and the highest number it has received in any month of the year since November 2021.
That pushed Barfoot's total stock of homes for sale at the end of October to 5611, which was up 22.9% compared to October last year and was at the highest level for the month of October since 2010.
"The arrival of spring, the reduction in mortgage interest rates and the fall in inflation created positive expectations and the Auckland market delivered," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said.
"The increased confidence in the housing market attracted a record number of additional listings from vendors, which was supported by a solid number of new builds reaching the market.
"It is anticipated that the high number of available properties will act as a handbrake on prices rising quickly," Thompson said.
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68 Comments
I didn't expect that....
It’s just a dead cat bounce, like the 10% by 2023 Christmas.
Really ? I'm just laughing and summer has not even started. Throw in another OCR drop in November and Christmas came early for home buyers.
Existing home owners you mean.
Nope like I said beginning of October, you have until Christmas to buy. I was probably wrong, you have less time than that.
I called the bottom as October / November. But I won’t claim validation until I see the HPI.
There’s still potential for a dead cat bounce, but I am not calling that this year (I successfully called that last year)
What? A seasonal bump in sales prices from September to October?
When has that not happened? It's lower than last years but still pretty similar.
Or is it October's sales being smaller September's? I guess that's surprising...
Barfoot & Thompson sold less properties in October than it did in September but the average and median selling prices both increased.
When to use less or fewer. If you can count them it is fewer. So sold fewer properties.
This is a market being flooded with listings, greeted with weak buyer demand and anemic actual sales volumes. I think it's way too early to pop the corks and call this a sustainable uplift in prices especially when employment insecurities are in play. In my opinion, lets see if the REINZ HPI shows a sustainable increase over say a 3 month period and see if volumes explode to clear this still growing backlog of inventory.
Median values are actually falling and have done so for eight months in a row - here
@retiredP - to early to pop the corks - straight up no having a crack at you - we both not popping corks ? I want prices up you want them down? Looks like we in a stale mate?
If prices go up much more, the NZ economy is going to get even more stale, mate.
@mfd - great playing on words :)
comment of the month
The mix of properties sold will be the critical factor. Fewer townhouses and cheap rentals and more owner occupiers. The HPI later in the month will be the critical indicator of price.
@ex socialist - yip good point i would like how many of the 3 high three deep are selling and if they get a good price - personally i feel they are not a good investment or a good home for first home buyers
What I am seeing in my area is the price of 2-3 bed townhouses going down, while the price of 3-4 bed family homes are going up. The former are not selling, while the latter are flying out the door.
They may actually end up becoming somewhat reasonable rentals to own if the rental yield picks up to a decent level from whatever base level they end up selling for.
Lower capital gains but good cashflow. Back to the traditional style of dividend investment with just inflation hedging in the price hopefully.
Worst case scenario, they slum.
Entirely predictable when 45% of new builds are townhouses. When people move up the property ladder they move out of the townhouses so the 3-4 bed family homes are reduced in supply. There may be lots of houses on the market but lets get real here, when someone sells their house they usually go and buy another so the total number on the market has not direct connection to prices.
I think the challenge with townhouses is the on-going supply. The number of 'new' houses listed on trademe for Auckland is 3,750, up from 3,000 at the beginning of the year. And of course, a developer only lists one of the five they have available. These are a good solid option for both a young couple and a investor - it is just that there is a lot of them. There was just short of 20,000 code of compliances issued for the year to May - and the completions are continuing faster than the sales.
yup, I suspect it's the apartments and townhouses NOT selling which drives up the average and medium price i.e. people are realising the bottom end of town is really not worth the asking price that the delusional vendor is asking - let's see what the HPI has to say
I'm assuming Chris Bishop is horrified by this news and is arranging meetings accordingly. Why don't the press shove a microphone in his face and ask him directly..."what are you going to do to make homes more affordable now?! Not medium/long term...now!!?" The young will continue to leave.... it's beyond a joke.
Where are the young going to go to?
Australia and Europe housing is more expensive than NZ!
Ask them.
OMG Europe is so cheap you are not THE MAN
Where in Europe are you talking?
Not where I went, and I went to several countries, much more expensive than here!
If you are converting NZD to the foreign currency you will struggle!
Europe is a big place. I sold my house in the UK last year, in a city about the size of Chch and Wellington, for about $350k NZD. Solid 2 bed house, big garden, well located. House was over 100 years old and should last another few hundred if cared for.
Exactly, I lived in the US and Europe and housing was a lot cheaper than in NZ, no matter how you look at it (pure nominal value comparison, purchase power, incomes, etc.). And as you said, much better built, centuries-old houses are very common in the main cities and have been upgraded over the years (triple glazing, wall insulation, electricity, etc.).
Our last house (7 bedroom) we sold back there in a city the size of Hamilton we only got what would be a deposit here in NZ...
Where in the UK?
Mustve been in a not popular place!
any major cities in Europe are more expensive.
It will be interesting to see how many new listings they get next month.
Winter is over
The grass is greener
The light is brighter
Water is flowing
Get out and buying more house
The Real TTP..
No doubt many DGMs will be bamboozled with this...
[EDITED] Didn't mean to answer here.
The 2361 new listings was the most Barfoot's has received in the month of October in at least 20 years and the highest number it has received in any month of the year since November 2021.
That pushed Barfoot's total stock of homes for sale at the end of October to 5611, which was up 22.9% compared to October last year and was at the highest level for the month of October since 2010.
No doubt many DGMs will be bamboozled with this...
Nah, a few people drank the spruiker's "bottoms in" cool aid.
Fewer sales, more listings, less people, less jobs, lower rents, global interest rate direction murky, house completions still above average, insurance up, global reinsurance costs up, climate change risks up, Luxon dumping his portfolio... Plenty of downside signals
Average up while sales numbers down seems consistent with DGM thinking, especially as the spruiker narrative was reinstatement of interest deductibility, plus anti-tenant laws, plus interest rate drops were going to send prices to the moon.
Don't forget rates have/are skyrocketing too.
@ agnostium - What a fantastic opportunity to buy if one is in the position to do so! As you've clearly highlighted the bottom of the market, or very near to at least, which is the best time to buy.
Your not seriously suggesting people wait until there's more sales, less listing's, more people, more jobs, higher rents, global interest rates dropping every OCR announcement, changes in weather, business confidence up?
Yeah, your clearly not an investor of anything ate you. What terrible advice you pitch, staying away when everything's down, fomo when everything's high instead. Or are you one of those chicken little sky is falling property skeptics who think never is a good time to buy but instead waiting for "the great bubble burst of 1920s all over again" lol
By the way, there's no anti - tenant laws that exist. There are however laws that exist to protect owners and their assets against tenants who believe out of entitlement that they can miss rent, damage the property, distrub the neighbours peace, smoke or grow drugs on site, keep animals against tenancies, then try to do a runner. Thank goodness the balance is being restored. Tenants don't get to make the call when it's not their house. The fact that you advocate for this & putch laws against this as "anti tenant" is very telling about your financial position, & just where you fit in.
He who has the gold, makes the rules. Domt like it? Do what's required to own the gold, male your own rules. It's really that simple.
As a current tenant, and former landlord, I reject the notion that tenants have it too good. Losing rental income is not comparable to losing a roof over ones head - advantage was/is still to the land owner, being a tenant sucks.
Feedback from Hamilton's northern suburbs: not much selling above 1/1.1M (which is huge for the region with an average of ~750k), it is even worse than 2022, listings piling up. It's interesting to note asking prices are almost fully back to 2021 expectations, not sure what the strategy is here, hoping OCR cuts will instantly make demand reappear? Also many properties that failed to sell last year are back on the market. Truly interested to see what will happen next, I'm guessing a good third will be withdrawn, some others will be offered for rent, rest waiting for incomes & rates to catch up?
The combination of high and rising listings, less sales, and higher prices for what sells to me would indicate many homes are going to be facing further price declines in real terms. May reach higher nominal values but compared to wage rises and the opportunity cost of tying up capital vs other investment opportunities, lots of housing won't look great. Utility value will be more important.
Real estate markets are hyper local so certain areas will still see appreciation in real terms. But to my eyes at least the "bubble" component of housing market is still in the process of deflating.
A lot of listings all entering the market to sell at the same time indicates either it is a great time to sell due to high demand or lots of people who want to sell are simultaneously following best practices around selling in spring etc.
Might be trying to achieve prices that can't be had for their type of property in this market. So they delist and then relist down the line. The danger being that in a situation of falling prices you want to be the FIRST to meet the market, not the last. As more stock builds up and doesn't sell any price corrections can turn from slow to sudden.
Or who knows, maybe prices and price growth are going to revert to pre-covid trend in real terms. I'm deeply sceptical of this but crazier things have happened.
Be interesting to see how this shakesout.
The headline of this article constitutes a paradox: on the surface it might seem to be the case that house prices increased across the board i.e. in all categories of value while, in actuality, it more probably means that there was a larger proportion of higher-valued houses sold.
Barfoot and Thomson sales stats are not the true Auckland stats
call me back in a few years once this hangover is done and dust has settled.
and your number is?
In a few years it will be just you and RP still here, everyone else will have moved on.
How long have you been on this website, Zwifer?
One thing for certain is that from Feb next year, few of us will be here with the paywall structure!
Yes, from 01 March, it will be interesting who remains. I think they'll be from two groups. One group only paying if market market stats pleasures the narrative, the other (my group), still here no matter what the market does.
Based in Zwifter's response above - he knows deep down bad news will flow and will therefore gap it.
I think by March 2025 things will be humming along. Not long to wait now. Lets see what outcome the USA election provides to other countries. All eyes on the FED and on November 27th here in NZ.
I am expecting a flat floor for a little while longer. Maybe spring 2025. By march next year the ocr will still be at a restrictive setting.
RP you have been on here at least a decade that I can remember and your tune has never changed. You’ve always been the pied piper for the property activists.
This is because the people with money don't waste it just to write comments.
Oh whatever :) In any case, it will certainly eliminate those desperate enough to hold multiple accounts - right?
Less up-votes for you then RP after March 25...how much are they worth to you?
Nifty, if you'd read between the lines, me being here beyond 01-March no matter the market - upvotes are of secondary importance.
If you read between the lines I was referring to this being you...
those desperate enough to hold multiple accounts
Over the centuries, there have been many mysteries. Big Foot, The Loch Ness Monster, and UFOs, just to name a few. But the biggest mystery of all is how does RP get so many upvotes? This mystery may be solved come 1st March 2025.
the blow up ration (removed from site....) is heavy on the Spruikers side not the DGMers.... no mystery
Our efforts to ensure supply is tight are starting to come to fruition.
The agency has also faced “significant challenges” with squatters and unauthorised entry into the building, spending $124,012 on security guards between June 3 and August 18
Kāinga Ora to board up Wellington’s Dixon Street Flats, 117 apartments to sit empty
It seems to me that some people would prefer an "outdated" roof over their head to none at all. I mean how much to keep it going vs all the rent being paid elsewhere. At least until they came up with a solid ready to put into action plan for it.
$66 an hour for a security guard? Are you kidding me!
For what that security guard had to deal with daily in those flats, $66 an hour it isn't enough.
Less sales then Sept, record new listings.
When I see a lot of volume on the offer, I assume that the ask is going to move away....
Face it, there isn't enough buyers out there for the glut of houses on offer so prices are likely to slip away
This is probably the most compelling reality, its been my argument all along.
Many have money but do not want to pay at this price.
Many have property but do not want to sell at this price.
There are NO WHERE enough buyers able to pay, for the houses that people wish to sell at current prices.
The Venn diagram has a small cross-over and two large circles, I have never seen the selling circle float off with the buyers chasing it... there are so few buyers it must be scary for the Spruikers. We are at end times for the NZ Property Ponzi.
Still seeing plenty of sold signs down here and also the shift to places going to Auction already this early in the cycle is noticeable.
IT GUY is hilarious. He has taken over from some of the DGMs who have been kicked off this site. His capital letter rants are the signs of a desperate man trying to prove an argument but failing miserably.
The Property Ponzie is going nowhere but South.....interest rates have bottomed at 2012 to 2015 rates. This previous age, is where the buyers are ready to pay........10 year old prices are coming back. Just ask ole Luxy, why he is liquidating en masse???
Meanwhile is Lala land.......Dopium and hopium is strong with the spruiker squad.
Interest rates dropping like a stone
More FHBs - 2500 in September alone
More lending to FHBs ($1.3billion) and investors ($1.3 billion) in September - and that was before lowering interest rates kicked in.
Auction median prices up last week
Auction clearances now consistently over 40% (compared with 25% for most of 2024)
DGMs in Lala land
So, only the better houses sold
Or that people are prepared to pay for better houses. Been saying this for a while now, decent quality builds in elevated positions that will be immune to flood damage will continue to fetch premium prices. Plenty of crap builds out there and they are still being built in low lying flood plains. Anything coastal is now high risk.
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