The median value of New Zealand dwellings dropped another half a per cent in October and is now 2.89% lower than it was in October last year, according to the latest valuation data from CoreLogic.
According to CoreLogic's Home Value Index, the median value of New Zealand dwellings was $805,984 in October.
CoreLogic says the country's median dwelling value has now declined for eight consecutive months, making it 5.1% lower than it was in February this year.
However the rate of decline has slowed over the last couple of months, suggesting values may be close to bottoming out if the trend continues.
"The latest fall in national home values suggests that even though mortgage rates have already dropped quite sharply, the influence of job losses and the wider feelings of reduced job security are playing the more important roles at present," CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said.
Across the country, Queenstown-Lakes District has the country's most expensive residential property values by far, with a median value of $1,500,090, followed by Auckland's North Shore's $1,266,751, and its neighbouring district Rodney at $1,217,057.
At the other end of the price scale the country's cheapest housing is in the South Island district of Buller, where the median value was $370,347.
There were only three other districts with median values below $400,000 - Kawerau $389,148, Wairoa $374,813 and Ruapehu District $386,062.
The table below shows the median values for all urban areas around the country and their monthly, quarterly and annual changes.
| CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index | ||||
| Residential Dwellings | ||||
| October 2024 | ||||
| Median Dwelling Value | Monthly Change (%) | Quarterly Change (%) | Annual Change (%) | |
| All of Aotearoa | $805,984 | -0.49% | -1.74% | -2.89% |
| Northland | $705,563 | -0.94% | -2.44% | -5.48% |
| Far North District | $652,719 | -1.08% | -1.80% | -5.91% |
| Whangarei District | $725,235 | -0.76% | -2.53% | -4.21% |
| Kaipara District | $758,319 | -1.34% | -3.41% | -8.46% |
| Auckland Region | $1,058,756 | -0.67% | -2.32% | -5.77% |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,217,057 | -0.40% | -1.14% | -4.55% |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,266,751 | -0.57% | -1.39% | -5.49% |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $920,361 | -0.63% | -2.18% | -6.12% |
| Auckland - Central suburbs | $1,141,716 | -0.76% | -3.42% | -6.32% |
| Auckland - Manukau | $994,664 | -0.90% | -2.01% | -5.67% |
| Auckland - Papakura | $823,957 | -0.12% | -0.82% | -6.25% |
| Auckland - Franklin | $913,129 | -0.13% | -2.15% | -3.66% |
| Waikato Region | $785,382 | -0.33% | -1.14% | 0.19% |
| Hamilton | $742,928 | -0.74% | -1.96% | -1.08% |
| Hauraki District | $638,025 | 0.25% | 0.61% | 1.02% |
| Waikato District | $912,026 | -0.41% | -0.20% | 3.61% |
| Matamata-Piako District | $706,085 | 0.62% | -1.44% | -2.11% |
| Waipa District | $915,382 | 0.19% | -0.59% | 0.44% |
| Otorohanga District | $599,347 | -1.13% | -3.75% | -6.02% |
| South Waikato District | $416,911 | -0.74% | -3.33% | -1.55% |
| Bay of Plenty | $841,218 | -0.11% | -1.07% | -2.30% |
| Tauranga | $900,931 | -0.05% | -1.11% | -3.00% |
| Western Bay of Plenty District | $1,036,269 | -0.36% | -1.83% | -1.74% |
| Rotorua District | $639,059 | 0.10% | 0.49% | 0.70% |
| Whakatane District | $699,092 | -0.09% | -1.28% | -6.21% |
| Kawerau District | $389,148 | -0.50% | -3.34% | -5.55% |
| Opotiki District | $710,191 | -1.40% | -3.60% | 3.14% |
| Gisborne District | $582,112 | 0.14% | -2.27% | -4.58% |
| Wairoa District | $374,813 | -0.69% | -2.74% | -0.55% |
| Hawke's Bay Region | $662,681 | -0.56% | -1.77% | -2.46% |
| Hastings District | $704,418 | -0.12% | -0.87% | -1.83% |
| Napier City | $664,145 | -1.12% | -2.70% | -3.61% |
| Central Hawke's Bay District | $592,577 | -0.31% | -2.15% | -1.93% |
| Waitomo District | $450,398 | -0.66% | -3.03% | -1.37% |
| Ruapehu District | $386,062 | -0.45% | -2.26% | -2.51% |
| Taupo District | $795,607 | 0.13% | 1.24% | 3.29% |
| Taranaki | $631,416 | -0.18% | -0.75% | 1.13% |
| New Plymouth District | $689,049 | -0.11% | -0.41% | 2.42% |
| Stratford District | $501,815 | -0.18% | -0.73% | -2.67% |
| South Taranaki District | $414,575 | -0.80% | -3.17% | -5.21% |
| Manawatu/Whanganui Region | $531,097 | -0.44% | -1.47% | -1.39% |
| Whanganui District | $478,421 | 0.20% | -1.16% | 4.15% |
| Rangitikei District | $439,179 | -0.77% | -3.09% | -3.14% |
| Manawatu District | $618,775 | -1.09% | -1.39% | 0.37% |
| Palmerston North City | $597,788 | -0.44% | -1.12% | -2.71% |
| Tararua District | $385,826 | -0.29% | -2.21% | -4.79% |
| Horowhenua District | $524,141 | -0.46% | -1.82% | -3.56% |
| Wellington Region | $772,116 | -1.15% | -3.08% | -3.89% |
| Kapiti Coast District | $791,787 | -1.23% | -3.61% | -0.73% |
| Porirua City | $721,249 | -0.54% | -1.05% | -3.31% |
| Upper Hutt City | $719,203 | -0.84% | -2.75% | -1.17% |
| Lower Hutt City | $693,810 | -0.74% | -3.04% | -3.92% |
| Wellington City | $867,454 | -1.55% | -3.46% | -5.28% |
| Masterton District | $561,721 | -0.21% | -0.83% | -0.20% |
| Carterton District | $654,011 | -1.47% | -5.55% | -6.09% |
| South Wairarapa District | $753,450 | -1.47% | -3.78% | -8.31% |
| Tasman Nelson Marlborough | $756,529 | 0.22% | -0.57% | 1.47% |
| Tasman District | $858,658 | -0.16% | -0.73% | 2.87% |
| Nelson City | $714,062 | 0.50% | -0.18% | -0.38% |
| Marlborough District | $687,812 | 0.46% | -0.75% | 1.46% |
| Kaikoura District | $744,936 | -0.25% | 0.63% | 1.09% |
| West Coast Region | $415,398 | -1.46% | -2.60% | 3.64% |
| Buller District | $370,347 | -1.81% | -2.93% | 0.99% |
| Grey District | $423,689 | -0.98% | -2.59% | 6.17% |
| Westland District | $466,106 | -1.84% | -2.33% | 2.81% |
| Canterbury | $700,438 | 0.02% | -0.27% | 1.46% |
| Christchurch | $685,438 | 0.17% | -0.02% | 1.84% |
| Hurunui District | $737,011 | -0.53% | -0.84% | 0.11% |
| Waimakariri District | $764,155 | -0.20% | -0.87% | 0.69% |
| Selwyn District | $854,540 | -0.49% | -0.83% | 0.13% |
| Ashburton District | $552,193 | 0.48% | 0.39% | 2.50% |
| Timaru District | $516,762 | -0.16% | -0.79% | 2.64% |
| Mackenzie District | $694,054 | 0.47% | -1.17% | 0.56% |
| Waimate District | $493,316 | -0.46% | 0.12% | 0.87% |
| Waitaki District | $470,158 | -0.68% | -1.72% | 3.32% |
| Otago | $671,138 | -0.14% | -0.65% | 1.79% |
| Central Otago District | $835,664 | 0.15% | -1.20% | 0.98% |
| Queenstown-Lakes District | $1,500,090 | -0.01% | -0.63% | 1.70% |
| Dunedin City | $604,595 | -0.38% | -0.35% | 1.80% |
| Clutha District | $427,944 | 1.16% | -0.29% | 3.61% |
| Southland Region | $481,140 | -0.34% | -0.80% | 3.50% |
| Southland District | $545,388 | 0.22% | 0.89% | 4.90% |
| Gore District | $417,785 | -0.04% | -1.31% | 1.59% |
| Invercargill City | $474,212 | -0.67% | -1.47% | 3.07% |
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77 Comments
These comment sections are always interesting. There seems to be a big difference between what commenators want to happen and what is likely to happen.
There could be a bit more of a downside.
Also, bank wait times have blown out so there must be some people thinking of starting a property search. OCR has some downward movement to go. So the downside in the market may not be much.
The next 6 months will be telling, but I don't personally think things will move much in either direction.
"There seems to be a big difference between what commentors want to happen and what is likely to happen"
Well said indeed! Many comments are often more akin to someone blindly supporting their sports team, no matter what. Very few commenters have open minds to see data neutrally, and accept a different point of view, which is crucial to make good financial decisions.
Sustainable is said instead of affordable and they might even trick some people to think they are talking about the same thing but they aren't at all.
It means they've given up on affordable house prices and sustainable is about the level which above it might cause extreme financial stresses/crisis or negative outcomes in the economy (someone else might be able to define it better).
To me having a massive exodus of Kiwis largely attributed to these so called sustainable prices, should be seen as a level which is causing negative outcomes in the country. But perhaps if they can import enough people to replace them then it's sustainable to them.
Very good reply. Thank you.
They also talk about how robust our financial system is. I think the opposite. The last 2 years has really exposed the economy as a one trick pony. Everything grinds to a halt when house prices stop going up. NZ is in a tough spot here, I personally don't think we've seen the worst of it yet.
Hundreds of thousands of mostly well-paying jobs in our economy are directly or indirectly supported by construction activity. So, the industry falling off a cliff will have major ripple effects across our already weak economy.
Can't say the worst is over yet and a good chunk of the skilled workforce will be gone by the time the market starts to recover.
Housing market has had a softer landing than many here foresaw.......
Average house prices are up by 130 per cent since 2011. (Yes, you read that correctly.)
Home owners/investors who play a strategic long-term game are doing very nicely indeed. 👍 😁
The housing market remains on a stable long-term trajectory. That's much to the annoyance of many here - most notably Retired-Poppy, who suffers from terminal pessimism. 👿
TTP
Exactly. I really don't understand the housing obsession at all. Every single investment I have is significantly better returns than our housing market from 2011-now. They're all highly liquid assets, and give the benefit of diversifaction. Two issues that are hitting home to those with all their eggs in the NZ market. That's just from a financial perspective. And we get to live in an area / house that is much nicer than we would want to pay to own (because they are obscenly overpriced due to said obession).
Where are all the mortgagee sales you promised us, Retired-Poppy??? You said they'd be common through 2023/24.
Yet another one of your forecasts that went belly-up ......
Retired-Poppy is not so much short-sighted as blind.
Further, he never learns from his litany of blunders.
TTP
I agree, mortgagee sales are far lower than many here expected (including me). I fully accept that this forecast was wide of the mark.
Now, can you explain why there are so many sellers yet comparatively few motivated active buyers?
Why won't you make any forecasts yourself Tim?
In saying that, business defaults and liquidations are at a 10-year high here. This might go some way in explaining the dire employment situation. Where equity is deemed to still exist, a stay of execution must be in play for many stressed home owners by way of term lengthening and holidays. Over time this can prove incredibly costly by way of additional interest paid - (dead money). Some will no doubt be wondering if it was all worth it.
As I've stated/forecasted here many times, Retired-Poppy, the housing market's road to recovery will be, "littered with many potholes - as well as twists and bends".
Explicitly, I've emphasised that, "recovery will not go in a straight line".
That's exactly what's been happening - and will continue to happen through the recovery period. Clearly, my prediction has proven well-founded and valid.
Looking further out to the long-term - i.e. over many cycles - I remain confident that the housing market is well-placed and will continue to prosper in much the same way as it has historically. Capital appreciation, rental yield and the plethora of intangible (non-financial) benefits make it a great place to be. That's unlikely to change.
You spend far too much time hanging around here each day, Retired-Poppy. Go get a life.
TTP
The Cheap Covid Debt undoubtedly accelerated what was already a problem, decades in the making. It may have given us a property market Blow Off Top. If so, it's just starting to play out before Volume (selling) speeds up.
"A blow-off top is a chart pattern that shows a steep and rapid increase in price and trading volume, followed by a steep and rapid drop in price—usually on significant or high volume as well. The rapid change indicated by a blow-off top are also called a blow-off move or exhaustion move"
Last year we had the highest immigration gain in 22 years and this year is 3rd highest.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/new-zealand-net-migration-rate-down-from…
First of all last year is last year.
Second, check the net migration this year so far. Its comparably tiny because of the massive outflow of kiwis.
The net 53k is primarily the tail from last year.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/international-migration-…
Time for what? Got three houses with no mortgages what so ever across the board at about middle to late 30s debt to equity. One house I brought 6 yrs ago for 140k earning 28k a year. That's 20 percent. It's not luck it's not listening to the majority of people and backing yourself. If the Markey crashes as you say by 20 percent guess what I will be out there buying up as much as possible it won't hurt me. It will hurt you way more
Only if I sell which I don't need too.
Like wise don't assume every property investor is bleeding on the street cause over the last few yrs every time something was introduced like when tax deductions were taken away. Oh the property investors are going to flood the market as they abandon their properties didn't happen one example
26@main here's a fact for you. Think what percentage of builders build their own home (one and only)........... 5 percent actually only build one for themselves out of all the builders in NZ. You know why cause the banks say how are you going go pay the mortgage while you build this house. Now am at this moment just starting on my 18th. At council etc as we speak. But yes I have the skills but I was also prepared to pay a price. Example don't drive the newest flash ute. Don't live in a house just to name a couple
"However the rate of decline has slowed over the last couple of months, suggesting values may be close to bottoming out if the trend continues."
Or it could just be spring? Which made me do some quick mental arithmetic ... Will the backlog be cleared before next autumn? Um. No. Probably not.
As I understand it (someone correct if wrong):
QV's is based on property value estimates.
REINZ is based on sale price at point-of-sale (whether it resolves or not).
Core Logic is resolved (and thus delayed).
Add in they each use different filter lengths to achieve statistical significance (eg REINZ has several areas over a 6-month moving average so a significant delay there).
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