The stockpile of homes for sale sitting on the property market got a little bigger in September, with both Trade Me Property and Realestate.co.nz seeing an increase in the number of homes available for sale on their respective websites.
Trade Me Property reported a 1% increase in total stock for sale in September compared to August, and a whopping 23% increase compared to September last year. Realestate.co.nz's total stock was up 1.5% compared to August and up 27.4% compared to September last year.
So there are plenty of homes on the market for potential buyers to choose from, and it seems, more arriving every day.
And vendors appear to be optimistic they will get a good price, with both websites reporting an increase in their average asking prices in September.
Trade Me Property's national average asking price in September was up 0.6% compared to August, while Realestate.co.nz's national average asking price was up a more substantial 4.9% for the month.
We do not know if those increases in average asking prices were due to vendors having more optimistic price expectations, or a slight shift in the mix of properties coming onto the market, or a combination of both.
But the big question hanging over the market now, is whether the increased optimism of vendors will be matched by an increase in enthusiasm from buyers.
We got an early indication on that front last week when Barfoot & Thompson, which is easily the largest real estate agency in the critical Auckland market, released its September sales figures.
These showed buyers were indeed more active in September, with the agency's sales at a four year high for the month, up 10.9% compared to August and up 19.5% compared to September last year.
However the extra commitment from buyers did not result in an increase in selling prices, which headed in the opposite direction.
Barfoot's average selling price declined for the third consecutive month in September and was down 2.4% compared to August. The median selling price also declined for the third consecutive month, and was down 1.9% compared to August.
Those figures suggest market activity is picking up in spring, with more buyers and more sellers committing to a sale, but buyers remain cautious on price.
And why wouldn't they be, after all they have plenty to choose from.
However we won't have a firm handle on how the spring market is shaping up until the Real Estate Institute of NZ releases its September data in the next few days.
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80 Comments
In the existing dwelling market, are non owner occupier buyers and syndicates of non owner occupier buyers going to outbid owner occupier buyers?
Hearing reports of non owner occupiers buying for landbanking purposes now. (i.e land price speculation).
How would capital gains tax deter that?
A stamp duty system similar to Singapore might may it less financially attractive for these non owner occupier buyers.
is the issue not house prices but regulation to avoid excessive house hording?
non owner occupiers are likely always in a better position financially than FHB.
"is the issue not house prices but regulation to avoid excessive house hording?"
Some people think capital gains tax would solve that issue. How would capital gains tax deter that?
A stamp duty system similar to Singapore might make it less financially attractive for these non owner occupier buyers.
"non owner occupiers are likely always in a better position financially than FHB."
Under current conditions, rules, & policies in operation, non owner occupier buyers have an advantage in the existing dwelling market.
Asking prices up 5% on the month
ANZ already slashed 1yr to 5.59%
Aaaaand we're off to the races! 🐎 🥂
@cote love your work. I am putting in my list
Cote/Yvil/Iceman/wingman/gowokegobroke/painter /Zwifter/ actually (rookie investor also make the list) and a couple as people' post that is great. I also whant to acknowledge NZ Gecko his comments purely from an story telling and articulation always puts a smile on my face
@AVERAGEMAN - I suggested a rate of 5.5 by MARCH where are you my man - openly telling me to put a reasonable argument forward - ANZ just did it for me
those who could afford a 500K loan now can afford 530K.
If they have the deposit, which is likely considering the long time they have had to save and big growths in kiwisaver funds.
That's going from a 625K to 660K house.
I wonder if they have lowered the test rate?
"The findings show the average KiwiSaver balance is $31,823. This is $4,444 higher than last year (an increase of 16.2%) and likely reflects the strong recovery financial market experienced over 2023."
https://retirement.govt.nz/news/latest-news/latest-data-on-kiwisaver-re…
- Lower balances are mostly concentrated among those age 35 and younger who represent two thirds of all KiwiSaver members with balances less than $10,000
Personally, affordability is more nuanced when considering rates, insurance, general cost of living, and that most houses need immediate improvements. I’m a 30-something FHB hopeful, but not in this environment. I’m more interested to see whose predictions will play out over the next couple of years, but it’s not like I have a choice because buying a home is still out of reach for me even with a deposit.
Thats a considered opinion for yourself....the issue of (in)ability to raise a deposit however is clearly demonstrated for a substantial proportion of potential FHBs if these Kiwisaver figures are anything to go by.
my Kiwisaver balance was 14.5% of my deposit since i contributed maximum since i was 16.
I believe test rates to be in the high 8's across all banks. They usually change as OCR or floating rates fluctuates.
I know ANZ was quite agressive with low test rates when we had the low fixed rates a couple of years ago, they had quite a few stressed customers that got loans in that period and were hit with IR increase lately - it was even in their FY23 report.
Anyway, test rate changes are not necessarily linked to special fixed rates drops. For example, with fixed rates above 6.5% recently, most banks adopted test rates in the low 9's or high 8's; if we ever have fixed rates dropping below 3%, it's very likely test rates will be in the high 6's or low 7's.
Those drops we're seeing will likely help with affordability but there are other moving parts to be considered, it's a nuanced analysis.
LOL you can ask whatever you want but don't expect to sell, and that's what's happening right now.
And once the race starts FOMO will ensure the sheeple pile into property.
Seen this scenario play out time and time again.
Barfoot’s September sales at a four year high …. And average prices fell.
Are we are finally seeing mass clearance ? Buyers can see the prices being agreed on sales, and will not overpay due to the massive overhang of listings.
At a time like this vendors have to be very realistic in setting their price
Yes, people are starting to sell for whatever they can.
There are many many people underwater sitting on way over prices houses with massive mortgages barely hanging on.
Average interest rates being paid are still rising as people roll off 2-3% to 5-6-7, so doubling and sometimes tripling of interest costs is still happening, and will play out over the next 1-2 years.
So given these factors the market will continue on its downward spiral with low sales, big inventory and declining prices.
Then expect a cooling off period, when most will sit on the sidelines and wonder whether to gamble again. That will be the time to buy in if you are game.
Those that think the cutting of the OCR (which is too early) will set off a property boom, are dreaming.
Not many people are rolling off 2-3% anymore - only the few people who fixed long term before rates rose.
What the average LVR across all loans?
Survey says no
A .5% drop in the OCR today will give the market a leg up.
And if the Assessment rate stays at 9% for any new or increased residential property mortgages, then what?
A lower OCR might assist those with existing Debt, but will do nothing on its own to do any leg-lifting. Is that part of a cunning plan agreed between Adrian and The Banks to take any pressure off the looming Debt Defaults and the Mortgagee Sale market? I guess we are about to find out.
You dont need to worry about interest rates when the current clowns are wanting to underwrite developments and developers.
I thought subsidies were disbanded post the Muldoon era, obviously not, this party of business is going deep into the capitalise the gains socialise the losses playbook. Its cronyism at its finest.
Makes you want to just live on a boat and sail your home wherever you wish ;P Hope the winds are treating you well Slug
Articles key words - "crowded, "stockpiling" "sitting", "cautious" and last but not least, "flooding". As for the trend, "selling prices headed in opposite direction"
This spring certainly feels diffrunt.
Enthusiasm has nothing to do with it. Buyers will buy yes. Because life goes on.
But house prices are still adjusting down from the looney levels of the last few years.
Enthusiasm is part of the equation. Knowing they hold the upper hand, potential buyers are certainly enthusiastic for cheaper houses and so they should be :)
By Susan Edmunds of RNZ
House prices are likely to stay flat through this year but increase 7% over 2025, BNZ says.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/personal-finance/investment/2025-th…
Here's another one you no doubt used;
Tony Alexander forecast 20 Dec 2023;
My current pick for price gains in 2024 is the same as it has been since just before the middle of this year. About 10%. For 2025 there will be extra momentum in the housing market, FOMO is likely to be much higher, and I’d expect gains nationwide averaging closer to 15% than 10%.
Oh oh.....
There's still 2 months to go. Has TA ever lead you wrong? We just need to see November prices up about 20% on October and we're there!
Wingman...I may compile you a list of BNZ predictions from the last 2 years. (If I get time).. I looked into it briefly a couple of weeks ago.. Mike Jones in particular has made clanger after clanger on his predictions. The caveat they hide behind is that it's difficult to read people's behaviors. Imagine we all were 100% wrong in our jobs, and we can just shrug our shoulders! Sounds like a cushy number to me.
Shouldn't take a genius to figure out that these overpaid economists are not dishing out honest, independent forecasts on the housing market as a free service on bank payroll. These are not predictions but attempts to influence the market back into a buying frenzy.
I find it fascinating that those economists still get any media and public attention, but then again, the IQ of Kiwis reduces to the same of a cockroach when it comes to brick-and-mortar.
They are not bad at their jobs, just heavily biased. All of their predictions are wrong in the same direction. When was the last time a bank predicted something worse than transpired for the housing market? My take on this is to look at what they are saying then assume that reality will be worse than their prediction.
Bank economist translator:
- Strong gains = flat/small gains
- Mild growth = flat to falling market
- Flat market = falling
- Slight falls = falling off a cliff
- Soon = in a few years
- Slow = never
Actually my recollection is Zollner was quite the party pooper a couple of years back, talking up further OCR hikes while the likes of Kiwibank and BNZ were screaming for the hikes to stop. It feels like she personally leads Orr around by the nose sometimes...
What they all seemed to have in common though is they wanted retail rates to not breach the test rates of 2020 at ~6.5%. All of them got antsy when that happened.
Speaking of which, remember when RBNZ chastised the banks for not raising TD offers as the OCR went up? Presumably to prevent them being able to discount mortgages and ignore the OCR. Isn't it fun to see that now happening in reverse, with banks cutting TD offers ahead of OCR cuts to essentially put them in a position to ignore the OCR, or at least convince the RBNZ that a smaller cut would cause "undue market turbulence".
Imagine we all were 100% wrong in our jobs
Mike Jones' job as BNZ economist is not to provide the public with objective real data or insights. He gets paid to put forward a narrative that will benefit the bank's profits.
I don't understand how people do not get this.
Bank economists essentially work for the bank's comms people. Do you honestly think BNZ acts in a way consistent with the information the economists make public? Surely people are not that naive?
Peoples behaviour is not that too difficult to predict as history provides the examples, once burnt twice shy as the Yorkshireman said, today the syaing is Orr one cock up is best fixed by a bigger one - recession - stagflation - deflation - depression. China is leading the way with a Big Bazooka just like the EU and that didn't turn out too ell did it Von de Liar and La Garde & Merkel - spot a simialrity anyone.
Why are you so obsessed with house prices rising. Would it not be better if our younger citizens like your children could stay in NZ and get ahead here. I could not give a ff whether my house prices go up or down. I live in it and enjoy it regardless.
Well said. Houses are for living in, not speculating on. In the past Wingman has responded with sentences that include sensationalistic words like Communist, Marx and North Korea to views like this. It's incredibly selfish and sad really.
Isn't the entire concept of "getting ahead" in NZ essentially based on buying a house as soon as possible and sitting on it as long as possible? If everything was equitable and houses didn't appreciate, how would the next generation get ahead of each other?
Imagine if people tried to 'get ahead' by furthering their own education and investing in productive businesses instead.
From the same people who predicted +xx in 2023, then flat-ish then -x, then -xx.
They repeated the same for 2024, annoucing a +x in Jan/Feb, then flat-ish, then -x...
What could happen in 2025?
Too ORRible to think about.
Spring lost its bounce. Its swing low and lower, sweet chariot, for the NZ housing market.
The crash continues and with Auckland and Wellingtank now down well over 40% in REAL terms....... its no way done on this biggest decline, since the 1970s NZ housing crash. This crash will far eclipse the 1970s routing.
- I see may places in Auck now selling near the 2017 and 2018 price levels.
We will likely see 2015 prices by late 2025/2026.......
Hang on FHBs and keep your powder dry......better prices still, will be had during 2025/2026/2027 as the overleveraged are needing towards the exit door, as their fingernails are splintering and losing grip.
Leverage can be baitch on the long snake ride down......which historically takes 6 years of jacksie riding the angry barbed snake, to hit hard bottom.
https://www.opespartners.co.nz/property-markets/house-price-predictions
How much will house prices go up in the next 12 months?
House price predictions
Institution... 12 month House Price Forecast..... Forecast Release Date
ASB. 10.9%. Aug ’24
BNZ. 6.9%. Aug ’24
Westpac 6.4%. Aug ’24
RBNZ. 4.8%. Aug ’24
ANZ. 4.5%. Aug ’24
Median. 6.4%
Average 6.7%
Upticks thus far,
NZGecko = 7
Wingman = (unbelievable)
Doing it just for the upticks is a wee bit sad 😂
You reckon that's the reason?
NZGecko = 12
Wingman = (totally unbelievable)
Nope, I don’t think that’s the reason Gecko does what he does, I really enjoy his comments & we’ve had a few volleys together discussing our views, our views might not align but I respect his & always enjoy how he words them…I also get the feeling Gecko couldn’t give a flying f**k if he get any upticks or not ✊
Some others on here…I think they care about the 👍 too much eh 😂
What do all those players have in common.........
Winging it....really. Reporting the roosters who have had it all wrong, wrong, wrong since 2021!!
- Their credibility is even below that of the spruiking, fly by night, NZ housing developers.
Reporting that the financial Vampires like Blood, they all want more Blood and more Blood must be given out by the Blood banks........it's hard to see any credibility there!!!
Yes, indeed. Those forecasts are based on genuine econometric modelling, not biased numbers that their employers want potential buyers to see and cause FOMO.
Why would banks lie to you? They obviously don't have a vested interest in influencing house prices upwards, so more people borrow larger sums and their profits increase.
In other news, scientists at ExxonMobil said the visual pollution from wind turbines is worse than the air pollution from burning diesel and solar panels give you roof cancer.
Will? So they have a crystal ball? Clowns.
Sellers. 12%
Buyers. -22%
Economy. I have the last say on this.
Adrian Orr. I'll decide !
More spread there than K-road at midnight.
There is a supply overhang, the marginal seller will set the prices
The question is how motivated is that marginal seller right now.
In my mind, there are a lot of people who have been holding off selling hoping for prices to pick up again. The longer the market stays flat, the more likely they are to capitulate and take the bid.
True. But some of those "people who have been holding off selling hoping for prices to pick up again" might now decide to hold off for another year given the dramatic turnaround in interest rate projections.
I think plenty of people will be waiting for the RBNZ decision today and especially for the slightest signal there are more cuts to come.
I'm kind of in the opposite position - we put our bach on the market in July in the face of unaffordable increases in mortgage payments. Got a single lowish offer at about the point where mortgage rates suddenly dropped back into the affordable range. We decided to counteroffer something high-but-under-RV to make them go away so we could take it off the market. The buyers complained bitterly. The agent basically laughed at us. We said take it or leave it. They took it. Eeek.
3 Veg - And thats how deflation starts
Two neighbours are holding off for summer, after having their homes on the market (at 2020 prices) for month upon month. I fear they may be disappointed.
Theres a lot of that going on. Theres also a lot of previous sale info being hidden away. Ive been looking in Northland, some areas are absolutely flooded with stock, a lot look like holiday home situations. I get the feeling vendors outside of the city centres are very much stuck on their 2021 windfall pricing, some having been on the market for 9 months plus. Going from Auction, to a fixed price, to negotiation, to my new favorite, Offers above xxxxxx ...
Ive looked at tenders and deadline sales. You just watchlist them, because they wont sell, who the hell buys residential property via a tender or deadline process. Some silver tongued snake oil salesmen in the sunny North !
Yes you could build a manuscript of listing titles, many of which get regurgitated on listings after a round of about 5 different headings.
Totally depends on location, its not back to 2020 prices around me, in fact I can now confidently say its never going back to 2020 prices now.
Never's an awfully long time. I'd put money on prices beating 2020 by 2030-2035 somewhere.
Even a Gizzy house that got washed away in the floods will eventually have its land valued at the 2020 price if you're patient enough.
The headline of more homes 'flooding the market' is ironic given they all look like they've been flooded...with leverage hehe. Trying to swim to the side of Adrian's torrent of distain against the everyday man, whilst the Boomers suck off the mother teet that is NZ Super and enjoy their untaxed capital gains. All the while complaining about our failing infrastructure, having sucked that dry too and frowning upon Gen Y's pumping up a failing avocado industry with their smashed renditions.
- Chubbs
A nice haircut! The location name has "side' not "head" but same same...
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/riverside-home-plagued-by-lowball-offers…
Ireland real house prices took 6 years to bottom out and debt to be shaken out, even after interest rates went into freefall around the GFC. This was in spite of an extended period of low policy rates from the European Central Bank
New Zealand real house prices dropped 22% from peak by Q1 2024, and more since.
Comparative view of Central bank policy rates, New Zealand (bis.org)
The question is... will NZ follow the same trend, and why / why not?
You also add the effects of the now 20% + inflation since 2020. We are well into the -40% drop in housing values, in real terms.
NZG - given that the index data is already in real terms, not nominal, I would think that would have been already factored in. So the real drop from peak to date would therefore be closer to 25-30%?
I've been advising a house hunting family member that the data says she should be expecting at least 25% off the peak values on average already, unless there's been improvements on or off the property since CV date that would justify more.
Given the falling OCR and inflation coming into line, I'm hesitant to expect more price reductions in real terms excepting the influence of the listings overhang.
What would drive the deeper fall NZG?
Different part of the world, different investing rationales. We have options like Airbnb now that have vastly changed the valuation of certain houses in certain places. We have a government that props up rents and in turn "supports" house prices. Our dip was largely triggered solely by interest rates tanking confidence, all the other factors (many of which had been around years prior) are sort of irrelevant.
All else equal, NZ prefers to be in a housing bubble rally as a natural state of things, even to the extent the buyers are happy to join a FOMO pile-on with little rationale, of course often backstopped by parents who merely see themselves as reinvesting their winnings from the same bubble.
Some lingering effect of WFH causing wealth to spread out to regions where previously it didn't live also helps support what would otherwise be marginal housing stock, which is typically a drag on nationwide values.
nnz thanks for your contribution to the discussion...
I'm not familiar with Irish ways of doing things.
In which areas is Ireland materially different, and how so?
"We have options like Airbnb ..."
We used to. Now? Not so much.
What have I been telling you guys?
Chris Penk says he's advocating for a new high school which is badly needed for the West. He's suggested the Fletchers subdivision at Riverhead, and Fletchers are amenable to this.
Posters here won't be interested though, they'll be too busy reading the latest copy of The Socialist Worker.
He started advocating in 2021. Unfortunately still talk at this stage, here's an OIA request from May this year. https://fyi.org.nz/request/26957/response/102228/attach/4/1329484%20res…
I am writing to draw your attention to the urgent importance for a high school to service the rapidly growing areas of Kumeu, Huapai, Riverhead and their surroundings in West Auckland.
The Ministry initiated negotiations for a Kumeū site in February 2023. There are two sites that comprise the potential College site and negotiations with the second landowner have not yet commenced.
There are currently no construction or design plans underway for the new high school in Kumeū, as any planning is subject to the acquisition of a new site and the subsequent development of a business case.
The boss of Interest said "no more Riverhead, let it go"
Maybe the economy's imploding where you are, but it's not around here, it's manic.
Time to put that pipe down fella!
Traffic jams, trucks, surveyors, new subdivisions, diggers and rollers, thousands of cones, cranes, new buildings, temporary traffic lights, miles of road works...it's crazy.
Nobody cares about anecdotes, let’s stick to the data….
"Houses double every 10 years"? Well some do. This one sold today. ~7.5% per annum gross annual return.
https://www.realestate.co.nz/42643647/residential/sale/67-fields-parade…
An English friend calls the area "Lower Earley, Auckland" after what was at the time the largest new housing estate in Europe, developed in Berkshire, England. All the houses have brick skins. Note the time it was bought ... 2011. Possibly a developer's post-GFC fire sale? No idea. I wonder if someone from the U.K. - feeling homesick - bought it.
Meanwhile, in a cosy office with plush office furniture a meeting has been hastily convened at the headquarters of "Worth and Save" New Zealand's largest supermarket chain. There are half a dozen suited executives gathered around a polished table. All are barely containing their glee and leaning foward in their chairs as the boss, the CEO of "Worth and Pack", clears his throat to open the meeting:
CEO: "Well, we all will have heard the news this afternoon...the OCR has been reduced by fifty points! Who among you know what this means for us as a business? What do you think young Smedley?"
Young Smedley looking gung-ho: "My wife and I will now be able to buy our first house."
CEO: Well, that maybe right, and I hope you will, but I was wanting ideas about how today's reduction can assist "Worth and Save."
Smith the financial director with a beaky nose enters the conversation: I have an idea. But we must keep this strategy strictly among ourselves and not let it leak out or we could be nabbed by those nosy so-and-sos from the Commerce Commission.
CEO: Don't hold back Smith what's this idea all about?
Smith beckons the others to lean towards him before he begins to speak in a hushed tone that can only be pieced together by the few words which are audible:
"..........a great opportunity.....put prices up.....with mortgages.....have more disposable......to spend .....food....other products.....we stock....therefore....can raise prices."
Young Smedley: But won't that mean more inflation? We shouldn't increase prices any more should we?
CEO: Brilliant Smith. Meeting's over so you can all go back to work and decide which items we can increase the price of over the next few weeks so it won't be too obvious. But Smedley I want you to stay. I want have a brief man-to-man talk with you about our basic business strategy.
Yep, watch domestic inflation roar back to life after a couple of cuts & a current OCR almost double the NIR…if Israel/Iran level up & oil goes nuts then maybe…but it won’t be “young Smedley” or “Smtih”…if oil settles down, I’d be more worried about deflation than the rather oddly named imaginary friends in your story 😂
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