The auction market is still in winter mode. Nationally only 94 residential properties sold this past week of the 230 offered via auction.
That's lower than the average for all of the winter selling season. And it is little different (-7%) from the numbers on offer in the prior week, the first week of spring.
While real estate agents may not tell you, mortgage brokers will confirm lending activity remains low. Their main business is refinance, not new home buying deals.
It is even quieter in the regions than in Auckland. But at least out of Auckland the properties coming under the hammer are more likely to make rateable value.
The light September activity is consistent with the weak Real Estate Institute of NZ August sales volumes.
Any seasonal upturn taking place is yet to show itself in the auction rooms.
Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the selling prices of the properties that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
85 Comments
Spruikers, springtime playtime not working out so well..........
Oh well, a continued price downtrend and massive stock overhang.......gives the hapless Kiwi renter, hope of buying their own piece of dirt in the near future. Good stuff.
Tony Alex comb will be spitting out his dark coffee, as his Oneroof and NZME handlers lose their grips on NZ society. Their selfish vested interest rent extraction and Debt enslavement ponzi has faded and now crashed into the biggest housing bust witnessed in NZ, since the 1970s - IS STILL ON THE DOWNSLOPE.
BUYERS BEWARE......Offer only the 2015-2018 valuations.......underwater loans are not the place to be!
Goodness me! Forty-seven percent of sales equal-to-or-above rating valuation is pretty damned good - especially in a less-than-buoyant housing market.
Good ol' Aotearoa. 👍🍒 Never lets us down. ✅
Very politely, may I suggest that the doomy-gloomies read the article and the accompanying tabulation before putting their mouthes into overdrive.
TTP
@Gecko - just in my mind to clarify.
1.What is a spruiker?
2. ANyone who bought a house a couple of years ago will be underwater in loans
3.When till the "hapless" buy? I will be happy if they do and i will be happy if they dont they keep renting
4. TA speak for economy and i would argue everyone suffers.
4. If the housing market crash - biggest fianancial contributor to NZ economy (even if you like it or not its true and employing 15% of NZ population) Will effect everyone.
I feel above rant is kind of carpet bombing everyone not just Spruikers. Also i have a portfolio however some of my homes are mortgage free so I am not saying from a 100% self vested place - smart investors are semi immune to 4/5 year downturns. I know this will be something you dislike but its true.
I am sure there is plenty of ammo above for you to go to town on however just be careful that your dislike dont affect people you care for rather than the soleless investor.
Hi SAH,
1 and 2. Good to see a reasonable spruiker.
Unlike the nefarious nature of subversion, diversion, promoting and encouraging of useful debt idiots, to bid houses past the dangerous levels of over 6x DTI. These Spruikers were "hand in glove" creating housing instability within NZ, then promoted Debt WMDs for numpty investors and FHB alike, as many are now in dangerous NEGATIVE EQUITY, as done and promoted by TTP and fellow spruiker travelers for many years now.
Those buying past a 5x or 6x DTI are risking future NEGATIVE EQUITY, as the market continues to drop.
3. Hapless FHBs buying their own home is good for NZ. Buying at 4x DTI is the best and safest ratio, to avoid the now common demon of negative equity.
4. Tony Alaspruiker Comb has caused suffering by his spruiking of his bad economic ideas on the REA captured NZME media. This is the TA.
5. IF ??? We are in a housing market crash now. The sky has not fallen and a sustained downtrend in price, is good for all of NZ. Already the REAL drops are -20% to -40%. I expect to see these bottom at -50 to -60% come 2026/2028.
Carpet bombing financially, those speculators/hoarders/spruikers, who bid up prices/gambled large and took the FHB ambition away from the young NZers is a national good and required.
Moral Hazards of bad financial housing trading bets and speculation must be exacted and painful. Stopping the next potential insanity of another wave of FOMO, is only learned by a hot and painful financial branding iron.
I feel sympathy for gumby FHBs who took the bad advice from TonyA/Comb/TA, Ash Churchless, TTP-Property Brokers, All REAs and the pushing within the NZME org, as the advice to buy past 6xDTI, is just bad advice, at anytime. If they overpaid massively, they will learn a financial lesson, life is full of lessons. We learn from them.
This covers your questions in fullness, I trust?
@NZGecko - fair enough about all the above
1. what actual advice did TA give? because i read all his articles and it is based on surveys he send out, he gives feedback on timestamps in the market he did not tell anyone to buy or sell.?
2. why do all young NZs be covered in cotton wool and be protected form the mean spruiker.
3. While you are slaying the terrible spruiker dragon and saving the fair hapless first home buyer maide pls give them some good advice and tell them there is a glut of properties and if they get a good deal maybe they should consider buying..... if not keep renting and blaming everyone when prices goes up.
Anyway as i said i am in it and not getting out. For me as a spruiker it is good if people rent. DONT BUY.
TA is the worst and most aggreges spruiker and akin to the Pied Piper leading the listening flock over the financial cliff !!
He was front in center, leading the market up to sky, now it's in an epic crash, with bodies financially broken all about the place.....and he walks free still???
His surveys are useless, as he samples the mates: REA Vampires, whose predetermination is that Blood (money) is good, people should always give more blood, as much as humanly possible and if required, the blood banks should lends oodles more blood.
He goes by "Independant Economist" which is totally dishonest. He is completely compromised, has a selfish vested interested and is a paid REA promotor/writer for Oneroof and the NZME cabal.
I vividly listen to him and his writings as well (really for comedy entertainment and to note how bad his advice has been) and he has made shocking calls and advice to his loyal adherents.
1. He has always encouraged all in sundry, to buy property yesterday, today and tomorrow, including at the worst of all times in the last 15 years - in 2020,2021 and 2022.
2 He promised all his readers during the peak fomo of 2021, there would be good "5% gains" to be made on NZ property in 2022. Bad, bad advice is his way for a few years now.
He should hang up his so called economist hat and just continue to scare the locals with his budgysmugglers on the Gold Coast.....
How the FMA has not tackled this rooster already, beggars belief!
Perfect.
Offering 2016-18 prices is sage advise.
Why? Well that is where your CVs are heading unless you live in a few outliers like Queenstown.
Speaking if liars...
Why are banks spruiking their lower rates ahead of the OCR supposed decrease?
A: cos they are looking at shabby "new" loan books and need to lead the next lot of lemmings to the promised land of ..
" You can never lose on houses"
" Nows the time to buy"
But in reality they want to lock and load the next victims before then raising the rates and screwing you for future record profits and happy Aussie investors and shareholders
N Z is run by 5 banks, underseen by the RB and protected by the NZ government.
You know these Vampires and their handlers very well LA.
It's a travesty that most garden variety Kiwi, are bedazzled and entranced by the mind games and verbal trickery that is trained into the coĺluding of these sucking REA vamps.
Sadly many have been led and bled into financial oblivion, since 2020.
Soon the financial oblivion will reach back as far as 2018, as more faĺl by the wayside on high housing debt payments, accumulated inflation and various arrears.
Renting is really the best option and helps out ole mate SAH (sounds like a good chap tbh) who provides good shelter at a fair price.
Trust it's a fair price SAH? Remember the host needs enough blood pressure to live for a good many years .......ideally as long as the well endowed LL.
@ NZ Gecko - hahah that is pretty good comment - Renting helps me out yes and I would argue it also help my tenants out -
1. had two memorable moments as a landlord the first was a welch and irish couple who thank me for the low rent they paid and suggested i put it up $50 when they moved out and build a house - TBH at the time about 9 years ago interest was manageable and tax deductible so it was easy to rent and build a relationship - now that Ardern really messed with it - it has become a business of watching every expense with a magnifiying glass and get top dollar when you can.
2, had a tennant move to Tauranga and when they moved back to AKL rented my house in Te Atatu.
So yea Vampire maybe - good bloke definately...... i have never been a slumlord or spruiker I enjoyed the landlord side of things and i still get xmas cards - well I lie that dried up since i handed all my properties over to property managers. I use to give all my tennants two weeks of free rent over Xmas - as i said those days are over and it has become impersonal.** tenants use to love the two weeks free over Xmas and it made me feel good to** most of the time if they moved in on a Wed for argument they dont have to pay rent till the Monday give them time to move in or if they want my place and times dont allow i have the house empty for 3 weeks while i wait for the right tenant - I would say most of the spruikers on here would have dont it..... however previous goverment turned people against each other - and i think you drinking that coolaid (blood ie vampire analogy)
The time when you could be a landlord and actually feel like a good person is gone - personally if I turned into a daywalker it was because of Robinson and Ardern
While real estate agents may not tell you, Mortgage brokers will confirm that lending activity remains low. Their main business is refinance, not new home buying deals.
Isn't it sad that back in 2020/21 our resident duplicitous Property Broker couldn't bring himself to post advance warnings of this great reset. The following was posted only yesterday. It's enough to make your stomach churn.....
After the longest upswing in living memory, a sustained period of falling property values was inevitable
by tothepoint | 3rd Sep 21, 8:39pm - "NZ house prices are increasing - on a sustainable long-term trajectory"
It's crystal clear why the industry can't be trusted.....
Indeed, from a long-term perspective, property is a big winner, as its track-record highlights. On top of rental yield comes capital appreciation over time.
Alas, those obsessed/fixated with the short-term - with no understanding of property cycles - fail to recognise these salient principles.......
Not much hope for the discombobulated. 😟
TTP
For those that are unable to see the mathematics between the Peaker and the Buyer Today (BT).
For owner occupier buyers: CAVEAT EMPTOR. Beware of those with their vested financial self interests.
1) Peaker
The median house price at the peak for Auckland was $1,300,000
With an 80% LVR, this is a mortgage of $1,040,000
The 20% equity is $260,000
2) Buyer Today ("BT") - Aug 2024
In 2021, the buyer who waited, deposited the same $260,000 equity into a bank deposit earning interest. Also BT would rent an equivalent house and have still saved money due to the rental being below the monthly P&I mortgage payments of Peaker - in 3 years the savings would have been about $20,000 annually. So a Buyer Today would have an amount of $340,233 to use as a deposit.
The current median house price for Auckland is around $950,000
Equity deposit of $340,233
The mortgage at this purchase price would be $609,767 (an LVR of 64%)
The Peaker has a mortgage which is higher by $430,233 (mortgage of $1,040,000 for Peaker vs $609,767 for BT). BT's mortgage is 41% lower than Peaker's mortgage.
Assuming BT, pays the same exact dollar amount each year that Peaker pays for their mortgage, as a result of that additional borrowing, Peaker is paying $1,232,229 more over the 30 years than BT (This is due to higher borrowing amount of $430,233, and total interest on this of $801,996 over 30 years). BT is mortgage free by the year 2037, whilst Peaker continues to pay their mortgage until 2051 (14 years later) - so after the year 2037, BT can save all that money that Peaker continues to pay on the P&I mortgage.
Assuming same incomes, and same living costs (food, travel, etc except mortgage) , BT can save the total $1,232,229 in payments that Peaker is paying. If BT invests the annual P&I payments that Peaker continues to pay after the year 2037 at 4.0% p.a, then in 2051 this amount will grow to $1,401,500.
Remember that at the end of 30 years, the house price will be EXACTLY THE SAME for Peaker and BT.
BT will have more money available for retirement than Peaker. Conversely, Peaker will have less money than BT at retirement.
That single decision to buy in November 2021 would have cost $1,232,229 extra to buy the exact same house for Peaker compared to a Buyer Today.
CAVEAT EMPTOR
As an interest.co.nz website branded spruiker - this news is dissapointing......for me..... so please feel free to point a finger an laugh if you a DGM.. However I believe the following might happen (it is possible) interest rates will drop 1- 1.5% house prices will keep going down however at some point an semi cashed up investors will take the risk (because cash flow will look better) and buy the house with a small return on Money invested. Once we at that point and there is small competition between investor and FHB the market will turn in regards to Capiltal Gain (which is the game). Rose tinted glasses perhaps. As for now please feel free to say: I told you so.
Not sure why FHB would buy in this market. Unless intention is to build a property portfolio, there’s not a lot of sense in paying todays prices. Have been looking at listings vs rentals in Wellington for a while now, once you factor in rates, insurance and maintenance, the effective rent would only be cashflow positive at interest rates around 2021 levels, and a further 10-20% decline in prices. We may get both. Without capital gains, who’s interested?
I believe it'll still be a while until interest rates drop enough to make demand higher than supply. Plus we're a bit far from seeing the stress on existing homeowners who bought at peak go away, and the easing of inflation will still take a bit longer to positively reflect on people's budgets. Still think it makes sense for FHB to thread lightly and see what happens
@rustus - interesting that you would give advice if you already have a home there is daylight between a FHB and yourself cashed up? if you wrong you already have a house? If you right well then you right however you cant see the future, so if you wrong you can walk away from it with all your cash, FHB might miss an oppertunity - careful with the advice. Mine is not advice its an opinion.
If you have stable employment and the cash, and find a "forever" home or long term home, I agree. Anecdotally in Wellington, there's not a lot of sense in buying. I have number of FHB mates between 30-40, with a child or two. They have good deposits, but once you factor in rates, insurance, and loss of investment income from the deposit, buying is just too expensive for them to make a move on it.
Once they hit that 20% deposit, the investment options elsewhere are just too good to pass up. And the return offsets a significant part of their rent.
Consider that for 700/800pw you can rent a "$1m" home, buying the same property would be $15k in holding costs excluding mortgage, and fairly middle of the road $10-20k in lost earnings potential on a $200k deposit. So the true rent is $10-20k p/a? And interest costs if buying that same property are currently ~$48k? Where do interest rates need to drop to to hold prices steady? <3%?
So without capital gains, you're losing a significant amount of income, and earning potential on your cash, and retirement savings... FHBs are getting too old to start again in a 1br shoebox, especially if they already have one or two kids.
Most Millenials have just missed out, and it's just too bad. I don't think the nest egg will work in 30-40 years time.
I'm in that boat. Although already have more than 20% deposit.
Current rent is $700 per week for decent 3 bed on the north shore. Weekly housing cost to buy an equivalent property in the same area, including all additional expenses works out at around $1,300 per week at present.
I have been happily sat on the sidelines growing my deposit and watching prices crash.
But the key part in my calculation you have missed out is that while those numbers don't look good now, what will they look like in 10 years. What will rent be like in 10 years?
Prices only need to increase by 4% in a given year to outperform the opportunity cost of that additional $600 weekly expense plus interest at 4.5%.
At present still hoping for further falls, but ready to move once HPI on the up again and inventory beginning to clear.
Doesn't stack up well for an investment, but I would have thought FHB would be people buying a house as their own residence and with a long term view that would still work assuming you didn't over extend to do it, it would be interesting to see a 30 year cost comparison of a home owner compared to 30 years of renting. When I hear people say investors are back in the market I struggle to comprehend that...the top-up required to cover costs would be brutal, but who knows, maybe when/if the RBNZ panic slash sometime next year it could see the very slow start of the next party, and with hindsight the end of '24/start of '25 might've been the best time to buy. Not sure anyones crystal ball is accurate at the moment.
It would be bloody interesting to see if you did make one, I agree if you invested the "surplus" of the rent vs comparable ownership cost, along with the deposit amount into an income returning investment it could work out well...personally, I could see myself falling into the "live my best life" trap with that surplus 😂
I guess the other risk being if you used the income from the investment to subsidise your rent costs then it would erode the long term value of that investment, it wouldn't then be compounding?
I'm early 40's, three kids, luckily my partner and I have decent jobs in a provincial town and home ownership was far more possible for us compared to some of our friends who are in the cities. Looking at the numbers I am pretty comfortable that we would be ok covering home ownership costs if we were to buy in the city...but I'm not sure we would have been able to pay city rents and save the deposit needed to buy in the city.
"it would be interesting to see a 30 year cost comparison of a home owner compared to 30 years of renting"
I have done those calculations.
The key variables are:
1) house price growth
2) mortgage interest rates
3) ownership cost growth - (i.e rates, insurance, naintenance)
4) rental price growth
5) investment returns for the renter
The calculations are only as good as the assumptions input. If the assumptions are wildly incorrect, then its a case of garbage in, garbage out.
In the calculations I have seen by property investors, some assumptions have been wildly optimistic, which has led to a decision to buy using high levels of debt.
"When I hear people say investors are back in the market I struggle to comprehend that...the top-up required to cover costs would be brutal"
There are buying syndicates operating. I have heard of a group of up to 5 friends / family / co-investors combining their buying power to buy either in property trading or buying to rent out. This is how property investors are buying. The top up for each of the 5 is bearable (unless one or two people lose their income). In some cases, one of the co-investors may have a large cash deposit to invest or may have unleveraged equity that they can borrow against (e.g a house with low LVR). This is how non owner occupier buyers are outbidding owner occupier buyers.
Interesting. Then to achieve real returns for these syndicates, they must rely on larger syndicates purchasing in the future. Otherwise where else would dollar demand come from? To me that’s a big red flag, but maybe the future is everybody renting and property being traded fractionally.
If people are not tuned in, people can miss the group buying to finance purchases at current price levels.
Other than comments on here, and articles from the usual suspects, I'm not hearing anybody say it's a good time to buy. People in my social circles are more concerned about keeping their jobs. A number have left, and a few have lost their jobs.
I'm not sure when would be a good time to buy, if buying for investment - when the numbers make more sense. The idea of capital gains relies on taking advantage of favorable numbers then relying on those numbers being no better for the next buyer. If FHB, then if you find a nice secure forever home in a good location it may be worth paying a premium for it now if you can afford to.
Renting in Wellington seems like a much better option for established families. Given the average FHB age is mid 30s, those with one or two kids could get a nicer house for much less money close to school by renting. Obviously, good stable well paying jobs are important. Lower incomes now days just do it extremely tough, and no amount of overtime will fix that.
I think we're reaching a point where FHB won't lose whatever they chose to do. But that period won't last forever.
@malamah - thanks for your honest comment - Ok above make sense and I would argue that it might never been a good time to buy or it might always be a good time to buy a house. I would say for 9/10 people who bough property in 10 years it would have been a success story? So 10% of people will have a nightmare story 90% would have a success story? can we agree on 90% odds? nothing is 100% guaranteed except if you don't take the risk the outcome will be 100% nothing gained? I accept my argument is not suffisticated but there is a bit of truth?
perhaps a good argument however no one can really see into the future - why do people get sunburned when there is so much information everywhere not to get sunburned and that the long well documented damage that the sun can cause is so out there I think you can also be wilfully blind.? Also i never suggest you should buy i may be wrong if you dont want to buy dont keep renting :) That works for me. Just stop complaining that people do buy and might not get sunburned in future. I am planting trees and you are welcome to sit in its shade but you must pay rent if you dont take the risk?
I am planting trees and you are welcome to sit in its shade but you must pay rent if you dont take the risk
Are you building new homes? I thought you were buying existing property. If you're building then the planting tree analogy works. If you're buying existing stock you are not planting trees, a better analogy is that you're fencing-off existing trees and charging people to sit under them, hoping that no-one else thinks of planting trees.
@I am not a developer for the record. The tree analogy is buying homes and renting them. you can make of the trees what you want. however the wind in those trees are whispering loudly - buy or don't buy up to you however if you renting please thank me for a nice warm healthy home complient property :)
Yep that's a little insight into the narcissism. Making a profit from people by providing them with a basic human necessity such as a shelter, which they cannot otherwise afford to procure for themselves, and then expect gratitude for complying with the absolute bare minimum standard that they themselves would be satisfied with. Pretty abhorrent.
I think (hope) safe as houses was being a little tongue in cheek with their comments, but their are a lot of "investors" out their who genuinely have this kind of saviour complex.
What do you think of ticket scalpers who buy up all the tickets of popular shows and sell them at a profit? Are they helping the market by allowing those who are prepared to pay extra get tickets, and risking a loss themselves if the tickets don't sell out? Or are they a parasitic drain on society, and we would be better off without them?
Prices are still way too high , job security poor for many , interest rate drops wont cut it ... too many extra costs in the picture... savage estimate is another 30% drop required just to bring into line with incomes and extras... pool of those holding decent deposits probably still exhausted from FOMO and inflated costs... but feel free to talk it up... risk is high and folk are not advertising it....but the data coming out is leaning on it....wouldnt want that deposit to be wiped out short term now would we FHB's ....treading water is not a comfortable space to be in and theres likely plenty of FOMO's already doing so.... be careful what you wish for ... lol
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/521022/house-prices-need-to-fall-a-…
I actually agree - keep renting that's OK for me it keeps the cashflow - capital gains will come at some point or the market might drop more - or it might not. I am in it and dont have a choice :) if you smarter than me (which you well could be) don't buy and time the market.
Remember the advice if you need more cash: "Get a boarder"?
Well - been monitoring the TM "Flatmates wanted" section and prices seem to be falling every so slightly and there's more supply than previously. I haven't got two years at post summer yet. But just got two years for now. I should have been doing far earlier. Is anyone else producing figures? How far do they go back?
Not exactly what you're looking for, but this has fairly good on the street stats: https://johnbutt.substack.com/p/rent-prices
Thanks Malamah. Not exactly what I was looking for but very interesting never the less. This bit (highlighted) very so:
Rents rise or fall based on only 2 factors
1. Household incomes - NZ average is around 25%, ie Geometric Mean Rents have been about a quarter of Household Incomes for the last 25 years.
2. Supply matching demand, rising demand (say immigration) causes Rents to rise, increase Supply (say build too many rental properties) causes Rents to fall
Given income multiples for buying a house vs renting many FHBs will - hopefully - give this more thought.
Property Investors Chat Group NZ
Question for anyone doing developments in Auckland. Is there still appetite for 2 bedroom townhouses with no off street parking. Seen a number of Williams Corp places with no parking struggling to sell. Have got independent rental appraisals where both agents said hard to tenant and tenant long term without more than 2 carparks. Looking at Te Atatū Peninsula so no train network vs a place like Avondale. We spoke to some neighbours who are seeking to yellow line one side of the street which will further impact parking. Keen to know peoples experience of renting out these townhouses and if developers are now likely to move to providing parking on site developments.
I see (yet another!) Chris has provided a short answer: Location, location, location.
That makes sense to me. The areas mentioned, "Te Atatū Peninsula [...] vs a place like Avondale", are vast. Inside these areas there are good walkable nooks where shops, supermarkets, takeaways, main bus stops, entertainment, parks, etc. are nearby so no car (which cost heaps to run / maintain, and many older people can no longer drive) are needed. Depending on the mix of nearby amenities and terrain, carless rentals will also appeal to cyclists. (Get the hint? If you are one of the LLs that sneers at cyclists you're a fool.)
I assume that post was from someone you know, IT Guy? Get them to take a map and a stopwatch (i.e. mobile phone) and spend at least an hour walking from a potential purchase to various amenities. Don't rely on Google Maps and streetview. While walking, or cycling, take note of what inclement weather would be like. (I usually try and do this when it's windy. Wind and rain is better, but I'm happy to imagine rain rather than try and hold up an umbrella in the wind and rain.)
Just quietly, so many questions and answers on that 'chat group' are so inane, biased, ignorant, etc., or just plain wrong!, that some of these people will either a) completely waste their money and/or b) be the worst landlords ever. There are a very few that talk sense, alas too few.
Edited: Sorry for the multiple edits. Just trying to be helpful.
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