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Low levels of activity at the latest property auctions but more properties were selling under the hammer

Property / news
Low levels of activity at the latest property auctions but more properties were selling under the hammer
Outdoor auction

Auction numbers remained on their winter lows at the latest auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, but there was a spring-like jump in the number of properties that sold.

Interest.co.nz monitored the auctions of 255 residential properties over the week of 24-30 August, little changed from the previous five weeks where it has bounced around between 220 and 267 properties a week.

But there was a good sized jump in the number of properties that sold, with 104 selling under the hammer. That's the most sales at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz since the end of May.

That gave an overall sales rate for the week of 41%, the highest it has been since the beginning of February.

However prices remained soft, with 35% of the properties that sold fetching prices equal to or better than their rating valuation, which was about where it has been since the end of May.

But with the past week being the final week of winter, we should start seeing a lift in total activity levels over the next few weeks.

Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the selling prices of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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105 Comments

The times they are a changing 🤞this spruiker needs a break.  

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5

It's good to see percentage of those selling above/equal to RV remain in the doldrums, it signifies a true buyers market and ongoing weakness in vendors pricing power. With inventory overhang with us for some time to come, there need be no hurry to buy. The upper brackets asking/sale prices will make interesting reading over the next year as more jobs are lost, people try to downsize and shed debt as it proves costly with the absence of capital gains. 

While this long overdue correction continues, the unrealistic expectations of many are given a much needed reset. 

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19

There is a chance you might be wrong......  think BNZ said 7% growth next year?  I know I  know.............  what does BNZ know.  For me and my interests I feel there is a breeze of fresh air dancing through the tops of the trees and you know what the breeze might be whispering ? 

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5

"and you know what the breeze might be whispering ?"

Thanks - I enjoyed reading that bit!

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4

well thanks for asking (i know you did not ) but the breeze is whispering- bbbbuuuuuuuyyyyyyyyy nnnnnnnnoooowwwwww ooooorrrrr iiiitttttt wwiiiiilllll bbbbeeeeeee tooooo lllllllllaaaaaaaaaatttttttttteeeeeeeee - you have to imagine the wind swishing gently through the trees..........  because if you dont in march there will be a cry in your ear - TOO LATE TOO LATE - THE BARGAINS HAVE PASSED YOU BUY.

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2

No, you're wrong. It was last January;

by Harvey W | 17th Jan 24, 11:57am

Interest rates easing, house prices lifting, buy now

No wait, wasn't it also August 2023? Anyway, thanks for the entertainment. Posts made by the heavily vested are a great source of entertainment that's for sure!

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17

Same old same ol my friend always copying and pasting and trying to bring the mood down 2023 - is so last year.......

-what changed since August 2023?

1. Interest rates are on their way down - rather quickly

1.5.  inflation is tumbling

1.75 - new govt

2. more houses are selling

3. business confidence up

4. tax cuts/ interest tax deductibility back baby

i would say if we can sort out geopolitical globaly before end of the year (middle east) things will be humming globally again (this is of course very much an optimist view in that i believe people are inheritantly good and would like to resolve conflict)

I have read most of your messages retired man - and there was a time for overly pessimistic views however i feel the wheel is turning?  I might be wrong however the pendulum always swing.

In my opinion you are slowly slowly getting more irrelavant?  I am leaving myself open here to eat my words in March however my guess is there will be crickets from you - 

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9

The rose tints in your glasses are blocking out:

  • House prices still falling
  • Supply exceeds demand
  • Lag effect of interest rate hikes still flowing through
  • Lag effect of interest rate cuts has barely commenced
  • Unemployment is rising
  • 10-2 yield curve still inverted (for 883 days)
  • New govt wants more affordable housing
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22
  • New govt wants more affordable housing

haha good laugh for the morning...

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11

Did the other points make you laugh too?

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18

Just a moderate chuckle...

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1

could be a symptom of cognitive dissonance

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15

...not to mention narcissism. It's pretty rife on here. 

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15

Yes ‘my personal wealth and investments are more important than the collective financial and social stability of the nation as a whole and the ability for our country to create economic opportunities for those in the younger generations who don’t yet own financial assets such as housing/shares’. 
 

I mean if price to earning ratios were historically low for these assets I’d have no problem with people trying to pump them - but when they have been historically extremely high for a long time and are causing such financial and social instability, I just don’t get the desperation to want them to go even higher price wise and create even more of this problem.  Don’t we ever want to give future generations hope for opportunity and prosperity in this nation? As opposed to giving more to those who already have enough?

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25
  • That narcissism comment made my morning RP…made me think of the spider man point memes…so good thank you 🫶😂
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3

Most of your points indicate a recovering economy

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5

@timelord - I am open to being wrong..... just checking you are convinced things are still on a solid downward trajectory?

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0

Yes, I firmly believe the NZ economy is still on a downward trajectory. The data is hard to ignore:

  • Government stimulus is declining & forecasted much lower in 2025
  • We’ve only had a measly 25bp rate cut which has next to zero impact when the OCR rose by 525bp
  • Unemployment rate is rising
  • Underutilisation rate is rising
  • Businesses are closing down at an increasing rate
  • Net immigration is falling sharply

The OCR is still highly contractionary in relation to current house prices.

 

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28

Yes agree I think the economic contraction (globally) is just staring or is going to between now and Christmas. But people are claiming the bottom is in for asset price falls..doesn’t make much sense to me. 
 

Most asset price destruction occurs after yield curves normalise and we are only just approaching that point now. 

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16

Fair enough - most of those point are accurate - however as i said the tide is turning.  and all of those bullet points are revensable.

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0

Most of your points indicate a recovering economy

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0

if you post it a third time it might come true (in animal spirits land)

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16

Take a cold shower and stop the nonsense.

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2

This line of reasoning is as mad as the 10% rates guaranteed guy - and he got banned from the site. 

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4

Maaaate....in the face of the clearly unfolding truth of where the "market" really is, you just come across as a paid shill pushing ponzi oil. 

For any credibility....please stop. 

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11

by safeashouses | 31st Aug 24, 8:13am

@timelord - I am open to being wrong

LOL! Your thinly veiled comments suggest otherwise. A well reasoned insightful response addressing each of Timelords bullet points would have made a good start. Simply suggesting all these points are "reversable" without detail just gives of the impression you're a gambler. 

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3

“Lowenstein…”

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0

over the next year as more jobs are lost, people try to downsize and shed debt as it proves costly with the absence of capital gains. 

If the article said " house price stock decreasing and sales prices have stabilized"

You would say the same thing

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2

You would say the same thing

Would I? Yet, house stock is not decreasing, HPI is falling, sales turnover is still unhealthy and joblessness is still increasing. Facts aside, what you leveraged lot fail to realize is that we bought our home to live in. We don't feverishly check Homes.co on a daily basis to see if it's risen in value. There is simply more to life to be honest. Houses should be for living in and not speculating on. Given the run up to froth, steadily falling house prices should be seen as a positive development. 

edit.

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20

No, steady positive  wage growth is good 

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1

A message for those expecting pay rises over the next 12-24 months....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMHt02mHKS0

In reality, for the time being, both public and private sectors are cash strapped. 

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6

Another sign we could be at the bottom. If I was a FHB in a position to buy then I’d be looking now, but probably no rush. If I was an investor I’d consider buying and getting a bargain, but you’d have to be certain interest rates will continue downward. 

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8

A lot of recency and confirmation bias in these types of views (in my opinion) ie that what has happened in the past 30 years is certainly what is going to happen again in the near future.

But what if you are wrong? Buying now could still be a terrible mistake. Prices could still fall another 20-30% in nominal terms if this recession really gets going - which given how long our yield curve has been inverted could indicate that this could be one heck of a recession - we may see rising unemployment and flat/falling incomes, business failures, for the next 24 months. Mortgagee sales could start rising as a result. 
 

Id be sitting in the sidelines until at least 6-12 months after the yield curve has normalised - so that would put us into 2025.

At the moment I think we’ve only blown away the Covid froth from house prices. That real falls may actually be ahead of us and not behind us - but that isn’t being given a huge amount of consideration as a lot assume that the worst is now over even though we are only just starting to enter the economic contraction caused by higher rates. 

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18

Yes the housing market still seems rather poisonous and worth staying away from for a good while yet.

I’m happy to have not invested in it in 2021 and according to average wage/house prices measures, housing in New Zealand is still hideously over priced in 2024 despite reductions since.

There’s a housing bubble in many areas overseas too and to me this speaks volumes in terms of NZ economy bobbing like a cork in the wake of larger economies.

Australia and the UK seem a little behind us. I follow the French news too and they seem to be at a similar stage to us, albeit their bubble was not at all as inflated as ours. China’s is in free fall capitulation mode and we’d be naive to believe whatever economic happenings over there won’t affect us at all.

I’d be very interested to hear what stage the bubble is at in the US and Canada, compared to us and how extreme theirs is.

 

In any case, we are overly obsessed with making capital gains in this country - giving the middle finger to productive enterprise -  and if we are to have a viable future for our children, (where shelter is a realistic opportunity for all) this mentality must change.

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9

No one knows what will happen, investing in anything is always risky. I reckon this could be the bottom, but I certainly know I could be wrong. 

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1

I don't think it matters what happens in the short term. Even if property were to go up 10% in the next year and we knew that for certain, it still doesn't make it a good place to invest money for the next 10 years with all the factors considered. 

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7

Spring has arrived. Lending restrictions eased, interest rates dropping, affordability better, banks keen to lend... it's looking to be warmer than winter.

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8
  • For the RòokiestNifters and other fellow travelling Spruikers out there -  the CURRENT MARKET PRICES NEED MORTAGE RATES BELOW 3.5% - TO JUST MAINTAIN THEM!!

No upwards pricing possible,  the market will be sliding down the slippery, higher interest rate snake, until 2026/2027.

The OverLeveraged, who are sweating bullets, should ditch Dddebt while buyers are still willing to pay -30% to -40% off the 2021 prices.

 

2012 to 2015 housing market prices, are coming into style again, soon.

 

These rampant Spruikers here,  have seen more MARKET Bottoms, than Freddy Mercury.

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20

look forward to your linguistic intelligence, this is a classic.

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11

Tu meke Gecko - this "CURRENT MARKET PRICES NEED MORTAGE RATES BELOW 3.5% - JUST TO MAINTAIN THEM!!" is the truth that the greedy spruikers willfully ignore and the reason NZ housing is the shit show it is. House prices are going no where anytime soon.

 

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16

sound like you convincing yourself....  yes I wont disagree it has been a tough time.  however this spruikvester is seeing light at the end of the tunnel.  I will even further admit that i will righsize my portfolio in the future however should interest rates hit 5 or even 5.5 even on my modest salary and interest tax deductibility being back life is on the improve...   Property investing in NZ is your golden ticket - if you get it you a spruiker if you dont then fine go on with your normal life and dont buy or wait to buy - while you do so you are more than welcome to rent my houses up and down the motu.

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2

Property investment in NZ was the golden ticket 1990-2021. It formed a massive bubble in real/inflation adjusted terms where asset price went up significantly above inflation/wage growth. 
 

It could be the opposite the coming decades as a result (ie we may see flat/rising interest rates over the coming decades with stagnant growth in productivity and wages, it’s possible the smart money has already been made and now exited the market). 
 

And who is trying to convince who? Who is listening to whispering winds? 

Up
22

IO, I agree. This correction could play out over years. I base this on reading history of other financial bubbles.
 

You can’t have something for nothing; property capital gains indefinitely? Ok, try keeping wage growth and productivity growing at the same pace indefinitely too while not destroying the currency through inflation… not going to happen, something has to give.

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10

Is “CURRENT MARKET PRICES NEED MORTAGE RATES BELOW 3.5% - TO JUST MAINTAIN THEM!!” your personal opinion or is there some data to back tip this bold assertion. It sounds a lot like “10% guaranteed” to me

Up
2

Hi TP, Yesireee - there is indeed abundant data!! 

I am surprised you seem totally unaware of the last 40 years ? where NZ Govt Bonds and retail Mortgage rates were consistently going down and this being the sole factor allowing much more Debt to be granted and obtained.  This 40 year period led us to a low of 2.5% to 3% mortgage rates and NZ home prices to an average 1.05 Million.   

Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for New Zealand (IRLTLT01NZM156N) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

QV House Price Index

NZ property peaked out almost 3 years ago and is now well recorded in the data to be in retreat at the fastest rate since the last major property crash that occurred in the 1970s !  
I don't expect this the old peak, to be hit for many years, or a decade or so.

Real Residential Property Prices for New Zealand (QNZR628BIS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

So the strong belief in Mortgage rates going forever cheaper, bid prices into the sky, late 2021/early 2022, then the 40 year rug got completely pulled out.  Sorry If you are left holding the bag or many bags??

If you think buying properties with 2.5 to 4.5% yields make sense ??? with mortgages rates now in the 6 to 8.3% range, fill your boots!
Seems like you have Two Pairs of Overleveraged klackers??  Those that put all their bets on NZX housing, are coming a cropper, in this higher interest rates world, we are now in.

The only way for property prices is down, until we may get 3.5% mortgages again (Very Unlikely). With deglobalization and wars being the future, expect resurgent inflation and higher cost of DDDebt funds.

 

Up
5

Mortgage rates will probably go down to 4.5% within the next 18 months, and property with a 6% return (not Auckland) could be a good investment at that time (choose wisely, of course).

Having said that, some of the spruikers comments today have been a bit annoying!

Up
1

Rapid CG gains and super low mortgage rates were an historically peculiar event that is not likely to be repeated any time soon in all probability it will be a marathon just to create stability. Sentiment running high wont alter the rock and hard place many are stuck in. Too early to call 'bottom' imo ... low equity buyers could end up kicking themselves.... 

Up
7

Rodney consistently has the lowest clearance rate of all the auctions . They either sell a lot post auction or there is a big build up of unsold houses in that area.

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1

I think Rodney property owners are still holding out for 2021 prices and are not being forced to reduce. Very desirable area seemingly with a high number of new or recently built homes (last 6 years or so) traffic to Auckland sucks. Go figure

Up
0

The first interest rate reduction won't set the market on fire, but there's a good chance the next couple might.

.25% won't do much, but as conditions worsen, or remain the same, the probability of of deeper rate reductions increases. 

Numbers for buyers are dubious right now, but they will stack up again, so start doing your homework and attend those open homes if you're in the market. 

Up
4

How's the localised minor flooding and thunderstorms working out for the open homes, in the Riverhead low lying catchments?  Bring the waders?

Expect more of this to be the future, in soggy places........  Riverhead bridge breaks away! North-West Auckland flooding. (youtube.com)

Up
4

I know exactly where that bridge is and it's miles away from Riverhead, and where I have my land. . I've driven over it. I remember that incident occurring.

The boom continues in Riverhead, with subdivision moving along the Riverhead-Coatesville highway. New subdivisions sell out pretty quickly, and these are the bad times...right?

Riverhead property prices are on the move, but I doubt you'll be interested because only the more well informed types will be sniffing around there.

Coatesville prices are up 47% in the last year - and it's spreading along the highway. 

 

Up
0

All I know is that its going to go very quiet on here if all the DGM's get it wrong. By my count there is about five people on here prepared to make the call of a market turn around post Christmas.

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9

Just create more sock puppets Z. You can get to 15 in no time. 

Up
11

Just managed to uptick myself, there's the five.

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3

Zwifter, if there ever was a DGM on here it is you. It speaks volumes when an individual who supposedly owns his home outright cannot rejoice in falling house prices to give the next generation a leg up. All you've done on here since August last year is encourage FOMO. Thankfully, this generation is witnessing what was considered inconceivable, mounting job losses and falling house prices and there need be no hurry to buy. Sh-t really does happen and the bigger deposit you enter with, the better off you are. 

Up
8

What rational person wants to lose money?

The only one here who's lost his marbles is you. 

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7

The only one here who's lost his marbles is you.

Was it something I said? Only a person with Narcissistic tendencies would find my views unpalatable. 

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4

Wanting to see others lose money is very eccentric behaviour.

Schadenfreude it's called, and generally exhibited by those with low self-esteem. 

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5

Not necessarily true. When one is happy with ones lot in life they are happy to see others get a helping hand. Are you one of those with intense self interest where enough is never enough to the point of denying others a chance? Like I've said here before, houses are for living in not obsessing over for capital gains.  

Up
8

Unfortunately for you this is not North Korea. 

Houses are available to be traded like any other item...cars, aeroplanes, land etc.

What owners do with them is their business, and if they want to take a punt and make money out of them, good luck.There's 40,000 empty houses in Auckland owned by those that can't be bothered with tenants. 

 

Up
4

Ahhhh, the old communist angle. Unlike the typical communist Despot, I'm more likely to consider the emotional and financial wellbeing of the wider community. It's very much case in point if the only way for you to get self gratification is through capital gains on houses - me, myself and I. 

Up
8

That's what communism's all about isn't it? Supposedly the wider community, but actually the only ones that benefit are those at the top. 

Something known to everyone else except maybe you.

I suppose you could call it socialism, but it's been a colossal failure, as recently exhibited by Comrade Ardern's hopeless halfwits as they spent billions on the most moronic projects anyone can possibly imagine. 

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4

Wingman, I have this nagging suspicion that you're not as successful as you would like all to believe - (role play). High net worth individuals don't need to boast their hearts out on internet platforms. On the other hand, if a venture to which an individual is heavily vested happens to be still in it's infancy stage, through internalized insecurities, some individuals will eagerly spread word of it much likened to a get rich quick scheme. If anything, it just makes others suspicious. 

Up
8

Get-rich-quick schemes are for suckers like goldbugs. 

I started dabbling in property around 1975, so I've got a bit of a background. I don't need to borrow the money, it's in the bank, so please don't lose any sleep over my alleged plight.

The first property I bought was a section on the Scenic Drive for $2,000. Hahaha, the good ol' days. 

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2

I've got a bit of a background

Now that part I do believe. 

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5

wingman: "What rational person wants to lose money?"

This truism made me chuckle. It is, of course, true.

But does it apply to a person's (or couples') decisioning making process when they decide to buy a (or another) house?

Sadly, it does not.

We even have silly acronyms to describe them. FOMO, FOOP, FOBO, etc. 'Fear' is not an emotion that is conducive to rational behavior.

And then we have silly maths like, "We'll loose money in the first x years but in the end the un-taxed capital gain will make it worthwhile". Why silly? Why plan to loose money at all? And the future is vastly unknowable (a capital gains tax?). And mistakes (e.g. Council's restrictive zoning rules) are unlikely to be made again, but similarly we can expect new mistakes to be made but few will recognize them until it is too late.

And I should add ... that what many people believe to be 'rational', based on the pub economics heard around BBQs - might be seen by another person with many years of economic study as the exact opposite.

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3

 

wingman: "What rational person wants to lose money?"

An example of profit motivated buyers (i.e rational) who are losing money.  The reality is that these buyers didn't know what they didn't know, they were blind to their blindness.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/buyer-loses-5m-deposit-after-walking-awa…

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/real-estate-bosss-1-reserve-gamble-as-de…

Also something that people may fail to notice - this is how land prices fall (there are numerous other examples if people are tuned into recognising them).  Remember the conventional belief that land prices do not fall due to limited supply?

Also construction costs do fall.  Seeing a builder asking how other builders are able to quote construction costs of $2,500 per sq m currently. Heard that previously construction costs were quoted at $3,000 - $3,500 per sq m.  

 

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6

The Auckland Home Show's on this week. 

Can't wait to get there for some new ideas and products.

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5

You'll surely be there with your omnipresent  "Buy My Lot In Riverhead"  hat on and freshly muddy waders  ?

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10

I'm not selling, I'm building in Riverhead. 

A few hundred metres from the most expensive real estate in NZ. 

 

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2

Funny that ... Riverhead is miles and miles away from my place. ;-)

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3

Flood protection products?   I cannot make this weekend the me and the waders will be in Turangi fishing... prefer Turangi over BogHead, less traffic.

 

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8

Turangi?

Be careful down there, there's been a few murders, assaults and burglaries.

Riverhead's very safe. 

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3

No gangs and associated trouble in West Auckland...

Gold tui award.

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7

Turangi is a good safe Red town, just don’t cross the boyz. 

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1

North Shore 67% above RV, woohoo....

we're back to business babe 

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1

8 houses out of 36 auctioned sold above RV. 

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11

He has taken off his shoe

everyone take there shoe off it’s a sign

the messiah wears one shoe 

 

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9

Latest numbers from Oneroof........

Riverhead up 1.5% in the last 3 months (+$27,800)

Coatesville up 3.4% in the last 3 months (+124,400)

 

Up
1

Too many on here think that they know everything about property and prices.

Reality is that if they did they would be singing the praises of property investing rather than being bitter that owner occupiers and property investors have become much wealthier than those that havent
The truth is that there is never a bad time to invest in property if you are buying at below true market value.

Many will say that what you pay is the market value and I can assure you that that is not correct!

yes investing in Auckland etc. does not appear  wise at the moment unless you are buying at a good yield or value.

Experienced investors that are well heeled always have more opportunities than new investors and will almost always do nicely when they have purchased well.

 

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4

GOOOOOD luck with your collection of overleveraged houses ......you obviously been captured by too many Propellershead Property and Tony Ponziandria charlatan seminars??

Many savvy investors have been caught out by their rearvisioning veiws of cheaper and cheaper DDDebt - that ended, stone cold in 2021 and now on the incline as we normalise to the higher and average cost of funds.

Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for New Zealand (IRLTLT01NZM156N) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

It will a great in 2026/2027, when homes can be purchased at much lower prices, by homeowners.

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7

I do not at all support Propeller or any of those that do property seminars.

I actually find that they are only there to sell property that they get a commission for and most of them are not great investors at all!

If they were good investors then they would not have the need to try and sell to others.

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4

LOL. Populist drivel.

Substitute "shares" for "property" and it'd say exactly the same thing. 

Oh. And "gold" works too. Ditto crypto. As do "bonds".

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1

"The truth is that there is never a bad time to invest in property if you are buying at below true market value"
 

Examples of profit motivated buyers (i.e rational) who are losing money.  The reality is that these buyers didn't know what they didn't know, they were blind to their blindness. 

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/buyer-loses-5m-deposit-after-walking-awa…

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/real-estate-bosss-1-reserve-gamble-as-de…

 

Owner occupier buyers: CAVEAT EMPTOR

 

 

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1

Why is the PM being pretty open about selling investment property at the moment? And why did Chris Bishop say the following? So that when it happens, no one can say they weren't warned...that's how politics works.

"Minister for Housing Chris Bishop says he wants to see average house prices continue to fall, even if it makes existing homeowners nervous.... the senior coalition government minister told reporters housing was too expensive and prices needed to fall. This is rare rhetoric for New Zealand politicians...saying the average house was too expensive, and his government was working to make them more affordable. When asked directly if he thought house prices should fall, the minister answered: Yes. We want housing to be more affordable for New Zealanders. That is a major work stream for this government — average house prices in NZ are too expensive....He acknowledged that a consequence of aiming for lower average house prices might mean existing home owners feel “a little bit worried”....“I wake up every day determined to try and improve housing affordability in this country. That is my driving mission in politics,” he said. 

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4

I'll be interested to hear about any genius who reckons he's going to lower property prices. 

More expensive timber, cladding, plumbers, builders, aircon, roofing, labour, land, concrete, subdivision, lawyers, accountants, surveyors, environmental regulations, consent fees, ad infinitum. 

More red tape....it ain't gonna happen. 

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3

More sellers than buyers.

We don't have a shortage of property in New Zealand, but we do have an inequitable distribution of ownership. "Convince" those who have 2,5, 100 properties on their personal balance sheets, that are still net equity positive, to "Cash in whilst there are still some buyers left" and prices fall. The development/replacement costs will become secondary to any concerted effort by the current holders, like the PM, to sell.

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7

Who knows what the PM sold for, he might have another project in mind. 

I sold a house last year on behalf of my late mother, it wasn't my choice to do it, it was in her will. There's all kinds of reasons people sell. 

I very much doubt there's going to be a rush of sellers, spring normally brings out the buyers. Everyone out there knows that owning's better than renting, it's just a matter of crunching the numbers. 

The biggest clue of all is the probable decline of the OCR. 

 

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2

And when you sold your late mother's house, did you do the calculations on "How much would it cost to build this now?" or simply "How much can I sell it for?". I'll suggest the latter. As most vendors do. And if they give a replacement cost any mind at all it's "I reckon if we make it just a bit below the replacement cost, it will sell faster" and that's the crux of the matter. Current owners, if they think about it at all, will sell for less than replacement cost - just to get it away. And that leads to lower prices as well.

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6

I know what gets people excited, a low reserve.

We had an auction, and when it reached the reserve the action really started. We got what we wanted, it was a brick and tile I had built for her about 35 years ago.

A house with good bones, only one owner. Nice view up the harbour, double garage, 3 bedroom. 

Crap houses might sell cheap, but good ones don't. 

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Fair enough. You are pretty set in your opinion, and that's all that matters - bar one thing. It's great to pick the right direction of any speculative market and reap the rewards (as many, if not most on here have done in residential property for +40 years) but the most important thing with any trading strategy is....surviving being wrong.

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Not just Soros

According to Soros, "it's not whether you're right or wrong; it's how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong".

 

I draw your attention to all below but to number 4 in particular, I seek the knees to the shoulders. Getting in our out right at the bottom or top does happen but it requires exceptional skills to repeat. Once the bottom is in on property its in,   unless you think that this next bull run is going to last only 6-12 months... The market data will give you all the signals you need, the fact that this weeks auction data reflects spring is not the droid you are looking for.

 

Let’s use this thread to share and study some of his top quotes:

  1. There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side

  2. A man must believe in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game. That is why I don’t believe in tips.

  3. A man must study general conditions, to seize them so as to be able to anticipate probabilities.

  4. To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.

  5. Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.

  6. A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.

  7. If I buy stocks on Smith’s tip I must sell those same stocks on Smith’s tip. I am depending on him. Suppose Smith is away on a holiday when the selling time comes around?

  8. If you can’t sleep at night because of your stock market position, then you have gone too far. If this is the case, then sell your position down to the sleeping level.

  9. The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think.

  10. He really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements, that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.

  11. People who look for easy money invariably pay for the privilege of proving conclusively that it cannot be found on this earth.

  12. It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.

  13. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for keeps! You have to use your brains and your vision to do this; otherwise my advice would be as idiotic as to tell you to buy cheap and sell dear. One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth-or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.

  14. Remember this: when you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap benefits from their mistakes.

  15. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade, than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.

  16. Professional traders have always had some system or other based upon their experience and governed either by their attitude towards speculation or by their desires.

  17. I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements, that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.

  18. I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up.

  19. After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!

  20. The “lucky” trader is one who minimizes mistakes and, if they do make a mistake, acts to minimize the damage by exiting from the situation quickly. In practice this means having a written plan for each trade you enter, the most important element of which is the stop-loss.

  21. “I can’t sleep” answered the nervous one. “Why not?” asked the friend. “I am carrying so much cotton that I can’t sleep thinking about. It is wearing me out. What can I do?” “Sell down to the sleeping point”, answered the friend.

  22. Speculation is far too exciting. Most people who speculate hound the brokerage offices… the ticker is always on their minds. They are so engrossed with the minor ups and downs, they miss the big movements.

  23. The semi-sucker had read books about trading – usually written by yet higher grade suckers – but he did not realize that reading books was not the same as trading experience. This type of sucker could quote all sorts of wise sayings about the operations of the stock market. He did not lose money as quickly as the beginning sucker because he had learned some of the most rudimentary trading rules

  24. A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.

  25. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.

  26. I did precisely the wrong thing. The cotton showed me a loss and I kept it. The wheat showed me a profit and I sold it out. Of all the speculative blunders there are few greater than trying to average a losing game. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.

  27. Whenever I have had the patience to wait for the market to arrive at what I call a Pivotal Point before I started to trade; I have always made money in my operations.

  28. Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never troubles me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.

  29. It is what people actually did in the stock market that counted – not what they said they were going to do.

  30. Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.

  31. The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses on Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.

  32. Do not use the words “Bullish” or “Bearish.” These words fix a firm market-direction in the mind for an extended period of time. Instead, use “Upward Trend” and “Downward Trend” when asked the direction you think the market is headed. Simply say: “The line of least resistance is either upward or downward at this time.” Remember, don’t fight the tape!

  33. The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.

  34. He will risk half his fortune in the stock market with less reflection that he devotes to the selection of a medium-priced automobile.

  35. The only thing to do when a person is wrong is to be right, by ceasing to be wrong. Cut your losses quickly, without hesitation. Don’t waste time. When a stock moves below a mental-stop, sell it immediately.

  36. Emotional control is the most essential factor in playing the market. Never lose control of your emotions when the market moves against you

  37. In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be. The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the prices breaks through the limit in either direction.

  38. On Pat Hearne – He made money in stocks, and that made people ask him for advice. He would never give any. If they asked him point-blank for his opinion about the wisdom of their commitments he used a favorite race-track maxim of his: “You can’t tell till you bet.”

  39. All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.

  40. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money.

  41. Experience has proved to me that real money made in speculating has been in commitments in a stock or commodity showing a profit right from the start.

  42. There is a time to go long. There is a time to go short. There is a time to go fishing.

  43. I can only rise by knowledge, If I fall it must be by my own blunders.

  44. Watch the market leaders, the stocks that have led the charge upward in a bull market. That is where the action is and where the money is to be made. As the leaders go, so goes the entire market. If you cannot make money in the leaders, you are not going to make money in the stock market. Watching the leaders keeps your universe of stocks limited, focused, and more easily controlled.

  45. One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.

  46. I don’t know whether I make myself plain, but I never lose my temper over the stock market. I never argue with the tape. Getting sore at the market doesn’t get you anywhere.

  47. Failure to take advantage of a serendipitous act of good luck in the stock market is often a mistake.

  48. There is nothing new on Wall Street or in stock speculation. What has happened in the past will happen again, and again, and again. This is because human nature does not change, and it is human emotion, solidly built into human nature, that always gets in the way of human intelligence. Of this I am sure.

  49. Instead of hoping he must fear and instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.

  50. Don’t get too confident over your wins or too despondent over your losses.

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'll be interested to hear about any genius who reckons he's going to lower property prices. 
More expensive timber, cladding, plumbers, builders, aircon, roofing, labour, land, concrete, subdivision, lawyers, accountants, surveyors, environmental regulations, consent fees, ad infinitum. 
More red tape....it ain't gonna happen. "

 

People are free to choose what they want to believe, however people are not free to choose the consequences of their choice.

Rising construction costs were given as a reason that house prices would not fall back in Dec 2021 (i.e house price peak in NZ)
 

1. Rising construction costs The more it costs to build a new house the greater the incentive for people to keep searching amongst listings of existing properties and the greater their willingness to raise their bid price.

https://ndhadeliver.natlib.govt.nz/delivery/DeliveryManagerServlet?dps_pid=IE79655584

People are free to choose to ignore the evidence of house price falls subsequent to the publication of this line of reasoning..
 

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And it's not just here.

"House sellers are slashing their prices by hundreds of thousands of dollars as fresh listings rise before spring....giving buyers who CAN  get finance the sort of bargaining power not seen in years,"

https://www.afr.com/property/residential/where-home-buyers-can-score-th…

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Will higher densities keep prices down for years? Consider this example ....

https://www.realestate.co.nz/42633037/residential/sale/33d-onepoto-road…

- was a single dwelling house (see the satellite map)
- now 12? 3 bed terraced houses

Spare me the moaning about how you'd never live there and how awful you think they are. The fact remains that for a lot (an increasing lot btw) of people they'll fit their budgets and they can pay off the mortgage faster and move on to bigger things later (if they want too).

60% (and more) of Auckland is now zoned like this. Anyone banking on the capital gains we've seen in the past 25 years needs to stop and really think about this. Do the friggin' maths!

Oh. Riverhead won't be affected. It's special. (Or so I'm told).

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Totally agree less capital gain as site cannot be developed/sub-divided etc etc, they are like apartments but for some crazy reason people accept low yield

 

 

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"for some crazy reason people accept low yield"

FYI, capital gain assumptions.

https://youtu.be/VC9AQtctfxE?t=774

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Loan Market mortgage adviser Dave Williams said:

"My phone hasn't stopped ringing since the OCR cut. People are telling me they are really serious about putting pen to paper."

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/banks-interest-rate-fight-intensifies-on…

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Must be all the DGM's calling the wrong number surely, I mean nobody on here is buying a house right now are they ? Obviously the crash has only just got going.

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Remember the 'experts' here predicting the NZD would plunge if Orr reduced interest rates?

The NZD is up from .5850 to .6250 since the latest  RBNZ press conference. 

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"Remember the 'experts' here predicting the NZD would plunge if Orr reduced interest rates?"
 

There are many perspectives and opinions by commenters on a variety of topics (e.g exchange rate, interest rates, house prices, tax policy, government policy, housing policy, property development, etc).  In any specific area / topic, some commenters are more informed and experienced, some are just merely guesses based on their own lived experience, emotions, etc.

Some commenters have their own areas of speciality / focus who have offered their opinion on areas outside their area of specialty.
 

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Remember the 'experts' here predicting the NZD would plunge if Orr reduced interest rates

Mostly said if fed did not drop, seems they are,   you would not survive 2 weeks in a professional trading environment wingnuts

 

 

 

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I don't pretend to be a 'professional trader', property's my forte.

I picked that the top was in on NZ interest rates and bought a property...that wasn't too bad was it? You're going to see kiwis loading up on it by the end of this year/early next year. 

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Sounds like a good line to say to get your name published and promote your services. 

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