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The number of new homes being built in Auckland is slowly declining from last year's peak

Property / news
The number of new homes being built in Auckland is slowly declining from last year's peak
builders tea break

The number of new homes being completed in Auckland remains relatively steady, after dropping down from its peak late last year.

Auckland Council issued 1683 Code Compliance Certificates in May. That's up 12% compared to May last year, but down from the peak of more than 1900 a month in each of the three months from September to November last year.

Code Compliance Certificates are issued when a building is completed so are the best indication of new housing supply, unlike building consents which are issued before construction starts, so are an indication of future supply.

The latest figures show the depth of residential construction in Auckland over the last 18 months. With 19,560 dwellings completed in the 12 months to May, this was up 32% compared to the 12 months to May 2023, and an all time record for any 12 month period.

However, the number of dwelling consents issued in Auckland has been steadily declining for two years. This means fewer new homes are being started as existing projects are completed,  suggesting Auckland's residential construction industry is on the downside of last year's peak.

But so far the amount of residential building work appears to be slowly deflating rather than suffering a sudden crash.

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12 Comments

Cue the shortage of homes being built will lead to higher prices crowd......

In reality, while there exists a glut of still severely overpriced inventory, prices will remain under pressure. 

Regretfully, continued affordability issues means more homelessness and people sleeping in their cars. On a brighter note, along with falling house prices, it's an encouraging sign to see rents now topping out. 

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People have been saying that - but, as I have argued previously, - there is conduit of supply continuing.  And although building consents have fallen they are only back to 2022 levels - which is 4 times the number in the post GFC slow-down. 

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Yes that’s interesting isn’t it.

Developers tend to be glass half-full types. They have to be to do what they do, although rose-tinted glasses are dangerous. I suspect many are securing consents and positioning for the upturn. I suspect many of them think the upturn is closer than I do, and greater. In fact I know a couple of developers who think it’s going to be boom times in early ‘25.

At the very worst, a consented development has some value in terms of on-selling a site.

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four straight months of 1500+ completions. This is not a decline but an increase on a quarterly basis.

I really appreciate this site but so often the headline, or picture of a house on a cliff edge, does not reflect the data in the actual article.

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...the picture above does indeed illustrate not much work getting done 🤣😆

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Feels dead to me out there.

Only people I know building or planning to are those that have already committed, mostly from purchasing a section. 
The economics of building are still off by a mile so once those that have committed to sections stop building I can see it getting worse.

There are a few newish houses around me that are for sale well below replacement cost so I why would you bother. 

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Yes correct. There is a time lag.

If you had a development property its a case or grin and bear it and continue on because you would definitely not be able to sell it to another developer in this current environment.

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This data is all good but doesn’t tell us anything about building starts (ie. forward momentum). I suspect starts are way down, but there’s no data to corroborate. 

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People that think building is still booming are delusional, I personally know of one builder who has gone into liquidation last week. Things are tanking out there.

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Have been in the new home construction game for over 35 years. We haven't started a new home in 9 months and am aware of many others in the same boat. We've been through some tough times before but never this level of inactivity. The squeeze (more a choke) has well and truly worked. Contractors, staff, subbies all whistling thru their tight little ....

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Exactly.

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I've seen plenty of temporary fences go up, diggers and trucks clear the site, on one site they had to excavate an old swimming pool, pegs get placed in the ground, and then nothing for months, until a section for sale sign goes up. they sell for pretty much what they sold 4 years ago for, thats less than current RV

I see one has poured a foundation and stopped. There are rules around doing foundations in the winter on the hill, and they probably got to a point where they had to keep going, or have the council on their back.

 

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