March saw a significant jump in both the average and median selling prices recorded by Auckland's largest real estate agency Barfoot & Thompson.
Barfoot & Thompson's median selling price rose $80,000 (8.2%) to $1,050,000 in March from February, but was still down $190,000 compared to the record high of $1,240,000 set in November 2021.
There was an even bigger increase in the agency's average price in March which was $1,227,495. That's up $111,345 (10%) compared to February, and is edging closer to the record high of $1,278,647 set in December 2021.
The fact that the average selling price increased at a greater rate than the median price suggests there was a shift towards the upper end of the market in March.
Sales volumes were also up with the agency selling 1061 residential properties in March, up by 39% compared to March last year, but still well below the record of 1844 achieved in March 2021.
The bad news in the latest figures is the very high stock levels on the agency's books.
Barfoot & Thompson had a total of 5741 residential properties available for sale at the end of March, up 21% compared to March last year.
That means the current level of stock available for sale is the highest it has been in any month of the year for at least 10 years.
The high level of stock is especially worrying because stock levels continued to increase in March even though sales numbers rose strongly and new listings decreased.
"March was the most active trading month the Auckland housing market has experienced in the past two years," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said.
"Buyers made the decision that at current prices, property represented value for money and that they were prepared to live with mortgage rates at current levels.
"A feature of March's sales was the return in strength of buyers at the top end of the market, with 89 homes being sold for more than $2 million and of these, 27 sold for more than $3 million."
The comment stream on this story is now closed.
Barfoot Auckland
Select chart tabs
•You can have articles like this delivered directly to your inbox via our free Property Newsletter. We send it out 3-5 times a week with all of our property-related news, including auction results, interest rate movements and market commentary and analysis. To start receiving them, register here (it's free) and when approved you can select any of our free email newsletters.
79 Comments
what a spin .. why they just don't say .. "top end going gangbusters, mid and lower very much in the doldrums with vendors insane expectations" .. jokers .. lol
The top end is not subject to much financing, historically, the low and mid end is fully subject to finance hence the massive buildup of houses in that range.
The housing market is bouncing around a bit - but the important indicators are pointing upward. ⬆️ 📈
TTP
the important indicators are pointing upward. ⬆️ 📈
Good point, best example of such an indicator is the stock of unsold properties
Good point, best example of such an indicator is the stock of unsold properties
Danicrass will learn soon enough that increased inventory does not necessarily imply a fall in value/price.
TTP
I couldn't see Dan saying this would lead to price reductions although you did and could interpret his comment that way. It is impossible to see how high priced houses in a high interest rate and recession are anything than a very odd combination unlikely to last, like the saying the market can stay higher and longer than you can reamain solvent but eventually the law of supply and demand trumps opinion as the rubber hits the road.
Recent house price momentum trend vs largest number of listings for sale in 9 years.
Choose your house price forecast indicator for your chosen time frame.
David + 20 thumbs up: what a spin
It's NOT spin, it's just numbers, which are up. It's not what you want to hear, I get it. I'm not saying it's good or bad, but I accept prices are UP. They may be down next month, but blindly refusing to accept data is unhealthy and dumb.
Homes.co.nz didn't wait to be told they updated the prices again today, its trending up.
My ongoing analysis of sales prices against what various RE sites have as 'low / likely / high prices' suggests they are indeed presenting extremely optimistic valuations. I suspect they'll be adjusting those valuations down in the none too distant future.
Buyers would be wise to only focus on the 'low' valuation, and even then take it with a grain of salt. Many sellers will be in dire straits and ferreting out that fact will save buyers a bundle, (Google is your friend.). Sorry to sellers. Dog eat dog world out there. Don't blame me - blame the RBNZ.
Location and finish will still command the upper end. A very small berhampore working man's cottage just went for 1.3 because it is actually nice. Too small to comfortably raise a family in but very nice.
Yes the property price retreat (in real terms) will continue as the economy crumbles. The rising tide of listings can only mean downward price pressure
Combine this erosion of valuations with the latest global temperature prediction & calamity may ensue. A further 2 degrees warming by 2034 is a big problem!
2 degrees warmer will do wonders for house prices in invercargill. Think of the bigger picture.
Bombay Market gardeners could relocate to Dunedin hills and we could build houses there instead... see how easy it is to fix big problems.....
The soil in Bombay is fairly rare in NZ. Combined with slope/drainage and climate it is perfect for growing which is why all the market gardening is there. So...no you cant just relocate it to Southland. Accordingly building houses on it for the view is not smart.
A fair point and if the rain remains Invercargill may be attractive in the next decade.
"the property price retreat (in real terms) will continue as the economy crumbles."
Alas, for too many sellers ... in nominal terms as well. Double whammy.
It's like that scene in Star Wars where Obi-Wan senses a million DGMs cry out at once, then go silent.
Oh well boys, bad times are coming, just be patient....
It's like a DGM support group on these forums, there is a lot of holding hands, burning of incense and chanting going on.
I am relaxed about the property market continuing to slowly deflate, that is good news for most. But as Yvil says, a good way to lose money is to follow the advice from the DGM's here. Plenty saying a crash was coming in 20, then...Boom.
This data point is positive - see the data - understand the data. It is positive. Fact. Will it continue? Who knows? I would guess no, a guess, just like everyone else on here. If you need to buy for personal reasons, don't sweat the decision, just buy what you can afford and be happy. (like NZDan).
Also what needs to be taken into consideration is these top end buyers are possible moving up so that means somebody has brought their 1.5 mill house and someone has brought that 1.mill house. For all these top end buyers they are also sellers so somebody from the FHB right thru is buying.
This is a financial website so the theme is making good financial decisions, but I feel like people put too much emphasis on "making better financial decisions" around something as uncertain as housing. Yes, in the short term renting is cheaper than owning. Owning a dinghy is also cheaper than a Bayliner, or a 1990's Corolla is cheaper than a 2022 Highlander.
We could sell up tomorrow and rent for easily half our outgoings but throw away the intrinsic benefits of ownership. As long as it's bought within your means then as you say enjoy it and don't fret about the spot price. Ours is well within our means at roughly 1/3rd household net income.
Did we overpay? Probably. But it got us into a very good location close to schools, train station, CBD. Won't seem like much in 30 years time, like paying $40k for a $20k house might have sounded like a bad idea in the 80s....unless deflation is on the cards for the next 30 years.
Did you overpay? It depends when you have to answer the question, inflation is a part of the world for many, many reasons and is unlikely to disappear while we have fiat currency. If inflation continues (at any level) you will soon have a property that is worth more than you bought it for. This is an extremely safe bet.
As for the other intrinsic value, that is very real, particularly for a family and therefore society.
Technically we didn't overpay as we bought/sold in the same market. But we did transact in December 2021, pretty much the peak. I guess the FHB that bought from us probably overpaid, but living in a house is a long term thing and as you say inflation at any level will take care of it.
One thing's for certain though, rents will continue to track wage inflation so long as we have migration.
'This data point is positive - see the data - understand the data. It is positive. Fact. Will it continue? Who knows? I would guess no"
Baaed on that data point, some are guessing yes.
Some may also have undisclosed vested financial selfish interests using that data point extrapolation into the future to change house price growth expectations to create a fear of missing out in potential buyers.
Timing is the key issue and change is nearer now than yesterday but it may still be a year away, be patient.
More and more stock for sale, high interest rates, nothing seems to matter, prices are still up! How long have we now said the downturn is coming ? Certainly over a year!
The downturn clearly arrived in the summer of 21/22. It's been going on ever since. I've seen nothing resembling a recovery since then. Not even anything suggesting the possibility of one. Quite the opposite.
Wake up, higher HPI and higher prices on this article IS a recovery, you just don't want to see it.
The 'a' in "a recovery" is doing the heavy lifting in your comment there
I presume that OP is looking for signs of a healthy market:
- reasonable volumes
- healthy sales rate
- stable price trend
Can put numbers on that if you wish, but inline with the last decade would be a good rule of thumb for the first two, and rolling 6 months average not disturbed by too high fluctuations for the third
There was no time since 2022 that all three have been true, hence the quarrel
Given the historically high price to income ratio and the shabby rate of sales vs stock, my money is on a downturn sooner or later, no matter how much propping the new government puts in. But, yet again, the market can stay irrational for long, esp. this one
Inflation running at 5%+ since 2021. Once/if house prices return to the 2021 peak, they will still be down ~15% in real terms, as of right now.
Com'on guys, how desperate are you? Just accept the data, it's up, period. Maybe it will be down for April, which is what I expect, but blindly ignoring data is not healthy.
One data point with questions around its composition (more high end sales) does a trend not make. Lets see...
Some people are choosing to look, focus and talk about the rear view mirror (last month's house price change), while others are choosing to look at the windscreen (and potential future house price changes)
Because we all know exactly what will happen with prices in the future....? NOT.
Get real, if BT prices were down, you and I know, everyone would point to it to prove that armaggedon is upon us.
"if BT prices were down, .... everyone would point to it to prove that armaggedon is upon us."
And why does that matter to you?
It does seem illogically for house prices to keep increasing especially when the economy is continuing to tank, the higher interest payments required, the increasing council rates, and increasing insurance cost etc etc. Maybe selling houses to each other at increasing prices will be good career for all the staff and government employees that are being made redundant at the moment.
But seriously Statistics in this form is dangerous ..... You need to be able to drill down into the data to see exactly what the true condition of the market is.
How many buyers of the higher end market need a mortgage? Clearly there is plenty of noise in the data if average values increased 10% in a month.
Ask anyone trying to sell that are getting offers 10% below what they think its worth.... the data is super compositional, thats why its moving around by 100k........ trust me 800k houses are not suddenly worth 100k more, its just that more people who own higher value houses have accepted offers.
OOs trading up. Good time to do it. (Not so good for OOs trading down. Or being forced to sell - and sell fast.)
Something I hadn't really considered, but could certainly help explain the composition of sales.
Prices are down when adjusted for inflation.
It is a bit like when we were told the Dragon Queen was coming to Westoros on page 50 of A Song of Ice and Fire. 5000 pages of fantasy reading and three kids later I'm still waiting.
Yvil ...the 2 things you mentioned that YOU think don't seem to matter are high interest rates (won't come down in NZ till the Fed puts them down and fat chance there) ) and way more stock for sale, which can be roughly translated as, my mortgage is now financially killing me for either the "astute" property investoor or the recent FHB's.
Are you really serious ? ....these 2 factors are why the "runaway property ponzi party" had to end, and these are the 2 berocca's needed to ease the hangover.
Also, I note that your correct, in that there have been sales in the $2m+ that have gone over their CV - however I have now seen property now initially listed below the CV, so I can see eventually cooling prices, even in this particular market.
Also, did you realise that this country is BROKE and I hope you are not smugly sitting back thinking "well, if the market turns to custard, the government will just full up my motel, paying exorbitant amounts per unit - plus they will come in and renovate each unit, as necessary".....well it ain't happening this time, especially with this govt....as remember these are TAX PAYER dollars.
Makes people wonder about their perspective in light of the mentioned data points: is there an undisclosed vested financial self interest or a politically motivated self interest involved?
BOTH CN ..... and I wouldn't be surprised that he didn't vote "Laborious" to keep his motel full, as much as possible.
TTP to ChatGPT:
"What is latest news on New Zealand's depressed housing market - generate only good news"
Many other posters here swap "good" for "bad"
What is latest news on New Zealand's depressed housing market - generate only good news
At January 2022
ChatGPT
The latest news on New Zealand's housing market brings positive developments:
-
Affordable Housing Initiatives: The government has announced new measures to promote affordable housing, including subsidies for first-time homebuyers and incentives for property developers to build more affordable housing units. These initiatives aim to make homeownership more accessible for all New Zealanders.
-
Stable Market Growth: Despite previous challenges, the housing market has shown signs of stability and steady growth in recent months. Experts predict a sustainable increase in property values without the risk of a housing bubble, ensuring a healthy and balanced market for buyers and sellers alike.
-
Support for Renters: The government has introduced additional support for renters, including rent controls and increased funding for social housing programs. These measures aim to provide stability and security for renters while also addressing affordability concerns in the rental market.
-
Sustainable Development: There is a growing emphasis on sustainable development in the housing sector, with a focus on energy-efficient homes, green spaces, and community infrastructure. This commitment to sustainability not only benefits the environment but also enhances the quality of life for residents and contributes to the long-term resilience of New Zealand's housing market.
-
Investment Opportunities: The housing market continues to attract investment from both domestic and international buyers, driving economic growth and creating opportunities for job creation in the construction and real estate sectors. This influx of investment signals confidence in New Zealand's economy and its property market's resilience.
Overall, the latest news reflects positive trends in New Zealand's housing market, with efforts underway to address affordability, promote sustainability, and support both buyers and renters.
Could have been written by TA.
I think you are onto something. I suspect TA uses AI much of the time.
89 homes being sold for more than 42 million
No wonder prices went up 😜😉😂
i saw that and looked at my keyboard to decode it..... how typical is a $2 mil buyer? 89 is a decent number I guess only 2 years ago it was a $2.5mil house
Incredible numbers given rates @7%+
The rocket is really going to launch when they start coming down mid year.
🚀🥂
Westpac have already reduced their 2 year rate to 6.75%
Can't wait to see how Adrian Orr spins his narrative for keeping the OCR at 5.5% next week. Probably the usual "inflation is sticky" and " imported inflation will remain high" and other such cliche.
Orr & the MPC are kind of between a rock and a hard place at the next MPR (Monetary Policy Review, April 10th)
They have no recent inflation data to point too and say, "look, it's coming down and we can cut even though it's not in range it will be soon".
They do have GDP data and could say, "The Recession will hammer inflation so we can drop the OCR and let the Recession do the work for us".
Back in Nov '23 they should have said, "We are cutting the OCR 0.25% due to extremely weak economic conditions and expect the extremely weak economic conditions to continue drive inflation down. This is not the beginning of an easing cycle - simply an adjustment as NZ Inc doesn't need both a Recession and high interest rates to bring inflation down. ... And we are bringing forward DTIs to ensure the housing market stays rational. ".
What will they do on April 10th? "We have no recent data. So it's steady as she goes." ... And damn the rocks ahead and the incoming torpedoes (that everyone can see except the RBNZ).
March saw a significant jump in both the average and median selling prices ...
But take care ...
The fact that the average selling price increased at a greater rate than the median price suggests there was a shift towards the upper end of the market in March
From what I've seen of what's been selling at B&T auctions, what sells is mostly either a) move-in ready with a recent reno and money paid for staging, or b) a pissing contest between developers. There are other sales obviously that don't fit nicely into those two categories.
And what's not selling? Heaps and heaps of more 'normal' properties. A shed load of them.
Consequently, I don't believe there's been any price rises at all. All we are seeing is a the results of a heavily non-representative sample of what has sold that excludes what hasn't.
But spruiker's gotta spruik, right? Fair play too them. The wise will be far more circumspect.
Agreed.
But back to 2 degrees warming by 2034 - that's a mighty acceleration which is based on an extrapolation of 2023;s sharp jump in both air & ocean temperatures.
We won't be rabbiting on about property values then 'cause we'll be belatedly panicking.......or perhaps we will!
To get to 2 degrees we need to by 2034 we need to see an increase in the earths mean temp of 1 degree. That's unlikely based on the existing science. Current rate of warming is .2 degrees per decade. So my maths (and I might be wrong :)) says that we will only get to 2 degrees above average by 2074. Will humanity even be around then or will we have gone to Mars?
- Earth’s temperature has risen by an average of 0.11° Fahrenheit (0.06° Celsius) per decade since 1850, or about 2° F in total.
Yes agree with that 2degrees c of warming from the start of the industrial revolution is the IPCC assumption. But this new prediction is for 2degrees c of warming by 2034 from the 2023 year so around 3.5degrees c overall.
If J Powell pulls the trigger on interest cuts while nothing has broken (a very soft landing), this will be the trigger of the next NZ property market melt up and the last mega wave of inflation. All roads lead back to the Fed and easing monetary policy.
Yep but no sign of that happening soon.
The FED has to keep rates at this level to protect USD if they lower inflation will come back and sink the USD, have you not noticed the us 10 year climb sure sign rates will not be coming down for a while.
The Fed kept rates at zero when inflation had already taken off in 2021, triggering the last property (and everything) melt up. They are the masters of monetary policy mistakes, don't under estimate their ability to roll over on inflation...... again. JP is no Volcker.
The real Black swan event will be the Fed lifting rates as their next policy move...........
Again our experience trading up was that there was plenty of completion. And I mean plenty. We tried 3 times and were out bid out offered every time.
We went from 1mil and traded up to 1.35. That 350k was a monumental step up in quality in every aspect. Our 1mil house didn’t have the same competition as the 1.35 did so I can see some of the DGM pov here.
Entry level properties you could argue there’s little pressure. Anything else that is above that level and doesn’t have obvious issues there will be multi buyers again my experience over the last 9 months.
I don't understand this quote:
"A feature of March's sales was the return in strength of buyers at the top end of the market, with 89 homes being sold for more than 42 million and of these, 27 sold for more than $3 million."
Is there a mistake? because these numbers don't make sense to me.
If it's the "42 million" then I'd suggest the shift key wasn't pressed hard enough when the author hit the number 4 on their keyboard, and that's meant to be a dollar sign.
Ah, of course. That makes more sense now. Thanks Nzdan. :)
Thanks for noting. Corrected now.
I am sure there were only 88 houses sold for over 42million.
today’s contribution, from a very experienced agent, starting at 29% off RV!
14 Harbour St, St Mary’s Bay $2.4m with RV of $3.4m.
Great view but right on the motorway and needs a whole lot of work. Owner has lived there since time immemorial.
Yup. Double glazing and additional insulation required as I doubt what's there already works. Wonder what the ground conditions are like and whether stabilization would be prudent?
That's the problem with RVs - They don't account for the work required to bring a property up to spec.
Two obvious options for this house. A 'flip' after a clean, paint, new kitchen/bathrooms, re-carpet, etc. (Depending on the roof & foundations.) Or a complete makeover costing $1 million?. I wonder which it will be. Looking at the last sales of the neighboring places (and without knowing their condition when sold) a full makeover would probably get the RV of $3.4m assuming in 6-12 months the market has picked up a bit. Probably worth poking around.
Price only showing an increase because bottom end of the market in Auckland has collapsed ie first home buyers and entry level investors sector is dead. There are over 3,000 new builds, terrace houses on trademe in Auckland right now and developers desperate to see sales. It feels like the GFC period right now with very little buyer confidence
House over the road from me just sold for $300k over CV. People will still pay for a good quality property.
REINZ website (realestate.co.nz) now has a nice red sticker that's says "Price update" ... Stunning to review these in areas I know well. And on each listing they show a list of price updates as they have occurred. Great info ... But very sad how desperate sellers are becoming. I struggle to believe that prices are going up.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.