Property website Realestate.co.nz is grasping for "green shoots" in the housing market, noting after 10 months of double-digit, year-on-year falls, new listings nationally fell just 0.6% in August.
"It's a bit early to say whether the tide is turning, but we have some 'green shoots' coming into spring. Vendors are perhaps ready to step out of winter hibernation," Realestate.co.nz spokeswoman Vanessa Williams suggests.
Nationally, eight of 19 regions recorded an increase in new listings during August, compared to just one region - Marlborough - in July. The regions where new listings increased versus August 2022 were Auckland (5.5%), Southland (6.6%), West Coast (7.1%), Northland (9.6%), Canterbury (14.4%), Nelson & Bays (18.8%), Central North Island (24.7%), and Marlborough (29.1%).
Williams notes the lack of new listings over the past 10 months is eating into the total pool of properties available for sale, with the national stock down 10.6% year-on-year during August. The total number of residential properties available for sale on the website dropped to 22,750 in August from 23,090 in July.
Across the country new listings in August totaled 7,444, down 0.6% year-on-year from 7,492. That comes after Realestate.co.nz received just 6156 new residential listings in July, the lowest number of new listings the website has ever received in the month of July.
"At the beginning of this year, we saw high stock levels and low new listing numbers. This is a symptom of a slower market where it takes time for stock to cycle through and reflect the lack of new properties coming onto the market. Month-on-month, stock levels have been trending downwards since March this year," Williams says.
"The total number of homes available for sale nationally has been in decline for almost half a year; over this same period, we have also seen the national average asking price trend upwards."
Realestate.co.nz reported a national average asking price of $872,942 in August, down $59,995, or 6.4%, year-on-year from $932,892, but up 0.7% from July's $866,743. The Auckland average asking price fell $119,744, or 10.1%, year-on-year to $1,064,970 from $1,184,744, and rose 1.3% from July's $1,050,820.
"Kiwis are continuing to slip off their shoes and into open homes. We're seeing more people searching for property on Realestate.co.nz, and the number of homes for sale by auction is on the rise," says Williams.
"Spring is typically a time for new growth and beginnings... Although with the election right around the corner, the growth might be gradual as Kiwis wait to see what happens with the government."
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Listings are way below average down here, it looks like we are still in a full Covid lockdown. I wouldn't confuse the number of homes for sale with the price. More homes can still mean higher prices. More homes or a sudden huge jump would indicate distressed sellers and obviously we have not yet seen that either.
If National get in, then quite possibly. If Labour remains, no green shoots.
So comes down to...
Labour voters will be renters, FHB's, anyone who believes there should be more to our economy than selling property to one another.
National voters, will be RE industry related, property investors & developers, older generation who need to sell large property at top $$ to retire comfortably.
Tug of war of opposing paths and generations.
The housing market is on borrowed time. If this is truly the bottom, then I'd say that the decline has put the shivers in a lot of retirees looking for their god forsaken right to a million dollars. 2026 won't have the same boomer support for the housing market. They will be more concerned about inflation.
I love Japan, and have Japanese family but it is strangely "fetishized" as a country in many respects - perhaps because it is so different to many other countries that it is easy to be caught up on the mystique surrounding the Land of the Rising Sun.
The work culture is whack, all sorts of demographic issues etc.
That being said, lots right with the place too and it somehow all seems to tick over.
The 7/11s, vending machines and Don Quijote variety stores everywhere count for a lot too ... what I'd do to be able to buy a can of coffee for a dollar instead of paying $5.50 for a small flat white these days.
Not sure, but they've budgeted on about doubling the demand in the 2m+ space so there will no doubt be a trickle-down effect for the squeezed middle and their houses.
Same here. Someone needs to ask Luxon and Hipkins should any new zealander on the average wage be able to buy a home, when they say yes ask what value of lower quartile house they would consider affordable in Auckland for example. Press them to give a number. When (if they don’t it’s not a good look) they do give you a number ask them to tell you what the average wage in NZ is and what the house price to income ratio would be. Then ask how far do house prices need to drop to reach an affordable house price to income ratio.
Just a reminder, that the RBNZ is expecting further house price growth, but is going to sit on their hands at the current OCR. "RBNZ has upgraded its expectation for house prices markedly, with RBNZ now forecasting a 9.5% increase in house prices over the two years to the end of 2025, compared to just 0.4% previously." ref https://www.mpamag.com/nz/news/general/more-react-to-rbnzs-rate-pause/4…
Now would be a good time to introduce those DTI limits, but inaction will see affordability decline yet again. I'm seeing most listings go to auction now, and plenty selling over RV (set in 2022) in Canterbury.
Smudge62 go to New York Toronto Vancouver Homg Kong Dubaj London Sydney and its pretty much the same everywhere Honk Kong the most exspensive alot of the angloshere cities and countries prices went crazy when Chinese could move their money overseas like Vancouver family there have be complaining about prices immigration etc for 20 odd years pretty much what is said here in little old NZ it's just not here
I can feel a sense of optimism oozing through the pixels about house prices. I'm not really sure why in light of the carnage happening in China. But anyway. It fits in with my engagement with people at the water cooler. The general 'vibe' is as follows:
Will be a little tough for a while but around 2024 normal transmission will resume - new govt, supply / demand, boatloads arriving from China and India
But maybe their intuition is on the money. Who knows? Another related 'green shoot' is that one of the distressed craft beer brands has found a buyer. Craft beer is a pure 'good times' economy play.
Go for NZ first. Labour is going to lose by a landslide - that's pretty clear already - but Winnie might squeak in, and he's the one that's likely to cause the most consternation for any government, letalone a National-led caucus. Seymour can handle Winnie, but based on what we've seen of Luxon I reckon he'd be pasted all over the beehive walls.
In terms of house prices, though - certainly a shift from this horrendous Labour government will produce a spike in confidence. Paired with the fact that we haven't really seen any carnage in the (lower case l) labour market there's bound to be a bounce. But with all the bad news coming in from every angle, I can't see how that confidence will last.
Our primary exports are all going out of favour simultaneously. China's 'rebound' appears to be faltering, and they're defaulting on foreign debts already. The banking sector in the US is looking shaky. Commercial mortgage backed securities are looking increasingly like a risky proposition. Europe's a basket case on energy security. The warmongers in the US seem intent on turning the Russia/Ukraine conflict into a multinational war...in fact, is there any good news at all?
It might be a bad night for labour but the left block will still do well although won’t win. With Raj and TOP likely to lose Ilam it all comes down to winnie taking enough of the right block to curtail the Nacts plan of selling this country off to the highest bidder.
I really hope this is wrong, my wife and I have been waiting and hoping for a pull back for so long and it would be devastating if this it....... Prices have hardly moved in Taranaki.
Don't worry, some of the soothsayers on here will reimburse you the balance of how much they said your new house would cost you, any day now.
Meanwhile, in the mighty US of A, applications for home purchase mortgages have dropped to their lowest level since April 1995.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mortgage-applications-drop-to-lowest-le…
US mortgage applications may have dropped but house prices most certainly have not. Whereas in NZ Covid created an opportunity for 5 year mortgages at 2.89% in the USA 30 year fixed mortgages were on offer at 2%. Millions refinanced to take advantage. Currently they’re making 2% in real terms on their mortgage. Hence nobody is selling so nobody can buy. The pent up demand is bursting at the seams, but with higher interest rates developers are struggling for financing. Many are bridging at 12-18% praying for rates to start to fall. Meanwhile and this is very tongue in cheek given their recent history, Zillow are predicting 6.5% annual increase as of this week. It doesn’t sound like much but many parts of the country experienced 60% gains over 2020-22. Hence, FHB’s here are far better off than in the USA with little hope of a solution without Uncle’s Sam’s intervention with Fanny & Freddy.
Its the land value that is falling. As vacant sites produce no income, but have a holding cost, the cost to hold has increased a lot recently. Some will have to sell their development sites, or subdivide and sell off land, to capitalise on the value increase. In this kind of market, the number of people in the market for land to build on, is pretty small.
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