Migrants' share of the housing market continues to grow

Property / news

Migrants on residence visas accounted for 12.4% of dwelling purchases in year to June

26th Jul 23, 10:10am by Greg Ninness

Immigrants continue to play a growing role in the housing market, according to the latest figures from Statistics New Zealand.

These show that people in NZ on residence visas (migrants) purchased 14,538 dwellings in the 12 months to June this year..

That was down from 15,141 for the year to June 2022 and 15,888 in the year to June 2021. But because total housing sales declined at an even greater rate over the last three years, migrants' share of the market actually increased.

In the year to June 2018, people on residence visas accounted for 7.9% of dwelling sales. That has increased every year since to 12.4% in the 12 months to June 2023 (see table below).

However the figures also show migrants are less likely to be sellers of residential properties. People on residence visas accounted for between 4.2% and 4.8% of residential vendors over the five years from 2018 to 2023 (June years).

That suggests the biggest impact migrants are having on the housing market is on the demand side for residential properties.

However total housing market activity involving migrants is likely to be even higher than the above figures suggest, because they only capture migrants who have residence visas.

On top of that, many thousands of migrants will have become NZ citizens, and although the Statistics NZ data captures sales and purchases by NZ citizens, it does not differentiate between citizens who were born here and those who migrated here from another country.

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70 Comments

by Flying high | 26th Jul 23, 10:17am 1690323475

14000 plus families have decided to stay long term

Thats quite a lot.... wait a second

by Advisor | 26th Jul 23, 10:46am 1690325189

Call me glass half-full but I see this as our economy diversifying its exports away from agriculture and towards housing exports.

Jokes aside: this article cherry picks data that suit the "housing is in hot demand" narrative. Nearly a 100k primary applicants were granted residency on a rolling basis in the last 18 months under Labour's 2021 programme plus another 25k via other categories.

by HouseMouse | 26th Jul 23, 11:24am 1690327461

Yes, and likely to be distorted by the fact the market is so sluggish.

ie. While many of the immigrants are low-medium income, and unable to buy, a small proportion will be higher income and able to buy. That’s a small proportion of quite a large number, though. With the market so sluggish, this pushes up the %.

by Pa1nter | 26th Jul 23, 11:59am 1690329590

Jokes aside: this article cherry picks data that suit the "housing is in hot demand" narrative. Nearly a 100k primary applicants were granted residency on a rolling basis in the last 18 months under Labour's 2021 programme plus another 25k via other categories.

Why not measure their rate (not volume) of purchases compared to the citizenry then.

by ikimpaul | 26th Jul 23, 12:29pm 1690331375

Cherry picking of stats is quite common in the housing market. I commented on Monday about this Post article

https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/nz-news/350037772/buyers-flocking-back-lowe…

In the article it refers to 10 offers been made on a Petone house (indicating the market was hot, hot, hot). The house in question is a 3 and 1 property whose RV is $680 000 and its current market valuation is $580 000 - prime time real estate in a "popular Wellington suburb" for both investors looking for a bargain, migrants looking for a central location and first home buyers. I'd be highly surprised if it didn't have multiple offers - meanwhile a few streets away - a 3 and 1 which is asking $850000 - has been on the market for 2 months.

I'm starting to think NZ media drives the housing market purely for headlines - one week the headline is "hot market, get in quick, sacrifice your souls, high demand, immigrants " then the next week they can have a headline "people cant afford mortgage repayments - isn't it tragic" - rinse and repeat.

by Greg-Hamilton | 26th Jul 23, 2:04pm 1690337048

next week they can have a headline "people cant afford mortgage repayments - isn't it tragic"

Yeah.. they want an early conclusion that "inflation is not our enemy. We need to protect our people financial stability and wellbeing - let's reduce interest rate again "

by K.W. | 26th Jul 23, 3:43pm 1690343006

The purpose of the NZ media is to sell advertising. They will push whatever narrative is the most lucrative and delivers the most clicks. This will alternate between greed and fear porn.

by Spiceeh | 27th Jul 23, 5:30am 1690392600

Don't forget celebrity and outrage.

by Brendon | 26th Jul 23, 10:51am 1690325480

Over the next century NZ will get increasing numbers of migrants because of climate change according to an interview on RNZ last weekend.

The introduction started like this;

"My next guest calls the effects of climate change the “four horsemen of the Anthropocene”: fire, heat, drought and floods. In her book ”Nomad Century” science writer Gaia Vince says — the solution is mass migration but it needs to be planned for.” Kim Hill interviewing Gaia Vince — RNZ

by Advisor | 26th Jul 23, 11:33am 1690328019

It is already happening on a global scale as we speak. The UN estimates about an average of 21.5 million people are displaced each year from their homes due to natural calamities, albeit some of this are non-climate related such as earthquakes and volcano eruptions.

Then there are other large-scale migration spells that are not considered being directly climate-induced. For example, there is consensus among scientists that a severe drought was the root cause of the Syrian Civil War, displacing millions of Syrians and leading to the 2015 European migrant crisis.

by Te Kooti | 26th Jul 23, 12:05pm 1690329958

Name me a single person that has moved to NZ for the climate, because I can name people who have left.

by interesting1234 | 26th Jul 23, 12:24pm 1690331083

Look at the Nelson City Council, of which i’d speculate half are migrants and came directly to Nelson for the climate. Sunshine, beaches, mountains, national parks all at the doorstep.

by Te Kooti | 26th Jul 23, 12:26pm 1690331198

They left Australia/South Africa/Europe/Indian Sub-Continent for Nelson?

by Mystery | 26th Jul 23, 3:11pm 1690341070

I think many New Zealanders don't realise how good New Zealand actually is!

by Chairman Moa | 26th Jul 23, 3:20pm 1690341617

Noosa, Gold Coast, Southern NSW beaches, Mornington Coast.. vs Nelson? Just no comparison!

by Colin Cameron | 27th Jul 23, 7:23am 1690399438

You obviously don't work physically outside or else you would understand. Most Australians live in air con drive in air con work in air con then say don't you love this heat. Try working in 30 degree heat for 9 hours with all the health and safety BS on and you will soon realise. Brother in law (aussie) carpenter starts work at 5 am finishes at 1.30 and he is in Beewah cause of the heat. Then try inland were it gets to 50 degree at 1 meter off a concrete floor with no shade (Roma) then say NZ has bad weather easy to warm up bloody hard to cool down. Well not if you only flip a air con on

by Market Interest | 27th Jul 23, 9:07am 1690405664

Having spent many a summer holiday in Brisbane (in-laws...obligatory) I can't agree more. Even leisure time is oppressive in that God-awful climate.

by interesting1234 | 26th Jul 23, 3:26pm 1690341987

Indeed they did

by Colin Cameron | 27th Jul 23, 7:35am 1690400110

Bruce Leanne of Trispec Construction. Shifted from Brisbane got rid of his construction business over there cause no money in it and corruption and shit weather shifted to Rangiora couldn't believe the weather and ease of doing business here in NZ.

by 21Trillion | 26th Jul 23, 12:01pm 1690329670

lol yeah, cause of climate change. Is that also why hordes of young kiwis are exiting the country?

by Caughtinthemiddle | 26th Jul 23, 10:54am 1690325666

More migrants came in on residence in the last 12 months than the 12 months prior to that. However, lower numbers have purchased a property - why is that? That would have made a more interesting article.

by Advisor | 26th Jul 23, 12:06pm 1690329992

I assume it's because new migrants, rich or poor, are better with their finances than the average Kiwi, especially on big-ticket items such as houses.

Doesn't take a genius to call BS on common ideas floating around in NZ's real estate market such as purchase price of a house is irrelevant if you're not planning to sell in the short run.

by Pa1nter | 26th Jul 23, 12:07pm 1690330077

Assuming your desire is to live in a house long term, that's fairly sound advice.

If someone wants to live in a house for a shorter duration but for potentially less outlay, they can wait and buy in a distressed market, once every 7-10 years or so.

Or wait till our population, economic, and housing situation is in a state of permanent decline.

by Advisor | 26th Jul 23, 12:56pm 1690333015

It seems only 10-20% buy a house shortly after gaining residency. It appears these permanent migrants have a different, more worldly definition of sound financial advice and aspirations beyond owning bricks and mortars.

Good for NZ in the long run I suppose!

by Pa1nter | 26th Jul 23, 2:04pm 1690337077

Assumes every migrant has the means and desire to buy a house immediately on arrival, and only 1 in 5 choose to, but ok.

by 1harlow1 | 27th Jul 23, 3:54pm 1690430086

"owning bricks and mortars" or more accurately in NZ case polystyrene and plywood..

by Pa1nter | 26th Jul 23, 12:02pm 1690329731

However, lower numbers have purchased a property - why is that? That would have made a more interesting article.

Id have thought that'd be self explanatory, in a trepidacious market with rising barriers to purchase (rates and terms)

by ozzzy2 | 26th Jul 23, 3:12pm 1690341131

Just have a look at what's happening in Oz.. with close to 30% of sales going to Chinese investors, at a rate of $6million dollars a day! - many of whom are buying, rather than renting, for their uni students to reside in. Coupled with their own migration intake, and other countries 'investing', it could be pushing well over 50%

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12313043/How-Chinese-buyers-sn…

by K.W. | 26th Jul 23, 3:50pm 1690343404

Because even though they have a residence visa, they also have to have resided in NZ for 12 months before being eligible to buy a house (they must be "ordinarily resident"). This means that this years influx of migrants can buy houses next year.

https://www.linz.govt.nz/guidance/overseas-investment/buying-residentia…

To be ordinarily resident in New Zealand for residential property purchases, you must meet all four criteria:

have a residence class visa
have lived in New Zealand for at least the last 12 months
have been physically present in New Zealand for at least 183 days of the last 12 months, and
be a tax resident of New Zealand.

by Zwifter | 26th Jul 23, 10:59am 1690325973

So much for all the immigrants arriving in NZ being as broke AF

If they are not buying then they are renting, this only pushes house prices one way.

by Timutei | 26th Jul 23, 11:03am 1690326183

Dear Greg,

A question for you. The reporting of housing statistics is all over the place. There are macro articles discussing averages and medians. Selective articles focus on a particular statistic predicting the market has turned (Tony Alexander).

The reality is probably more nuanced. Would it be possible for someone (perhaps yourself) to tell a story form the combined data?

Something like

- x% first home buyers

- y% migrants

- z% luxury

- zz% Investors

- zzz% existing homes owner movements (downsizing, estate sales, etc)

Some of these categories overlap or perhaps don't have data captured for them

But there is a story to be told of baseline activity (migrants, existing, luxury) and variable (first home, migrants, investors)

That way readers would gain a better understanding of market trends

Your thoughts appreciated

TIm

by Zwifter | 26th Jul 23, 11:10am 1690326654

What's the point ? Nobody cares. The only thing that people are interested in, comes out the bottom of the funnel as house prices.

by tomjones_04 | 26th Jul 23, 12:09pm 1690330194

It's complex. You wouldn't understand...

by Zwifter | 26th Jul 23, 12:51pm 1690332690

Its called "Paralysis by Analysis" and I have seen people waste hours on it and then still do nothing. You want the bottom line and can cut to the chase most of the time and still make the right decision. Reminds me of people on here still chasing data and still have not bought a house 20 years later. Don't waste other peoples time mate, just waste your own.

by Flying high | 26th Jul 23, 2:08pm 1690337318

Hey zwifty some of us are very happy renters. When the time comes and the right house comes along I might just decide I want to join the homeowners ranks. For now I'm making more money and saving big bucks by not owning. End of story (short story)

by Harvey W | 26th Jul 23, 3:12pm 1690341172

Buy this year🙂

by Flying high | 26th Jul 23, 3:20pm 1690341610

Just 5 months left. The market won't recover there's too much against it

by wingman | 26th Jul 23, 4:25pm 1690345531

Now's the time to buy, when interest rates are up. House prices have come back a lot, the notion that house prices will be in the doldrums for years is codswallop.

Hasn't ever happened and never will.

by Zwifter | 26th Jul 23, 7:14pm 1690355658

Agreed, could potentially be a big shake up politically after the election when National get in. Expect houses to start rising again next year.

by Averageman | 26th Jul 23, 11:04am 1690326240

Historically a lot from Aussie, UK, and parts of Asia. Any data break down on where the money is originating from?

by nguturoa | 26th Jul 23, 11:13am 1690326795

Yep.. Kiwis getting bought out of their own country. 😁😁😁.

Who would have thought that to happen. The greedy generation of the bloomers, the politicians they elected and the policies they made.

Just a messenger. Don't shoot me.

by Mystery | 26th Jul 23, 3:23pm 1690341808

it's similar in most western countries I would imagine, it's not just Kiwis. Have you looked at the Sydney or Melbourne housing markets for example? In Australia, on top of the insane house prices one will also have to fork out many tens of thousands in stamp duty on an average priced house. Even if you are a first home buyer you could still end up paying over 50k in tax (stamp duty) when you buy a million dollar property (this is probably average for places like Sydney/melbourne). One could argue that it's harder for young people to buy in Aus than in NZ, or if not harder than at least it's not much easier than it is for young Kiwis in NZ.

by K.W. | 26th Jul 23, 3:53pm 1690343603

Every country has implemented open border policies. Unfettered immigration. Increased humanitarian intakes. Its not a bug, its the main feature.

by Nzdan | 26th Jul 23, 11:26am 1690327610

Families that are already here, that were occupying rental properties. As long as they're replaced by incoming migrants/natural population growth then all's well.

by HouseMouse | 26th Jul 23, 11:27am 1690327655

Observation - lot of delusion on housing around the water cooler today in the office.

by Te Kooti | 26th Jul 23, 12:13pm 1690330383

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/43995

Good grief, the man is shameless.

by Zwifter | 26th Jul 23, 12:54pm 1690332867

Well is it fact or not ? Maybe its just traffic jams in Wellington ? Not really any different to my prediction of a small window between now and the election.

by HouseMouse | 26th Jul 23, 1:18pm 1690334283

Lol

It’s good farcical comedy, at least.

by Chris-M | 26th Jul 23, 1:15pm 1690334123

That is great news isn't it!?

In a country where there is an enormous shortfall in housing availability and the consequent inevitable high level of homelessness, every immigrant coming into the country turfs yet another Kiwi out of their bed onto the street. There is now way of looking the other way or spinning this. It is cast iron logic.

What sort of government does this to it's citizens.

Young Kiwis, I know the outside looks scary, but your only hope for any sort of future is to get out of New Zealand. There is nothing for you here beyond a beautiful countryside, that you will probably more easily enjoy as a visiting tourist.

by swapacrate | 26th Jul 23, 11:53am 1690329223

Both National and Labour want high immigration, along with increased traffic, ques at hospitals, pressure on schools, increased house prices, reduction in salary, increased inflation the list goes on. Especially the type of immigration we are bringing in.

by Pa1nter | 26th Jul 23, 12:04pm 1690329878

- laments migration to NZ

- encourages migration from NZ as solution

by HouseMouse | 26th Jul 23, 1:20pm 1690334419

There’s beautiful countryside in most countries. Australia,UK, Japan, Canada all have amazing countrysides / landscapes.

by Twitchbar@ | 26th Jul 23, 12:11pm 1690330289

Cameron Bagrie warns job losses on the way, thousands more could end up on benefit

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/07/cameron-bagrie-warns-job-l…

by nguturoa | 26th Jul 23, 12:49pm 1690332555

We are a benefit nation anyway.. A few more is not a big deal. Someone will pay 😉😁😁😁

by Advisor | 26th Jul 23, 1:08pm 1690333718

Remember Robertson back in 2022 proudly stated that 80% of Kiwis were on some sort of government welfare during the first set of lockdowns.

There is no real Opposition to this ideology in NZ - just other politicians who want to line the pockets of a different set of beneficiaries with taxpayer money for no value in return.

by HouseMouse | 26th Jul 23, 1:21pm 1690334480

He’s one of the better ones

by Chris-M | 26th Jul 23, 1:59pm 1690336793

Cameron Bagrie warns job losses on the way, thousands more could end up on benefit

So why do we need wholesale immigration? Clearly it has nothing to do with a shortage of available people, despite all the BS we are pedaled about the people with right skills. As we see repeated in the news, the people coming in are all told that skills do not matter.

The subject of this article indicates the real reason. Keeping houses unaffordable.

by Independent_Observer | 26th Jul 23, 2:22pm 1690338132

As I've been saying on here for years (and if you read Treasury reports), the government are terrified that boomer superannuation is going to cripple the nation's finances. So the aim is to bring in more and more working age people to increase the tax take and to reduce wage inflation pressures as boomers retire.

This isn't a NZ only issue, it is true across the world - at least other nations who experienced a post WW2 demographic boom.

by Chris-M | 26th Jul 23, 2:32pm 1690338778

You would think therefore that they would make some effort to hang on to all the good young productive Kiwis. I doubt very much that the low grade immigrants will do anything other than add a large further burden on to the tax payers still silly enough to remain here.

by Pa1nter | 26th Jul 23, 3:06pm 1690340797

Old people are the most expensive to have in society.

Imported 30 year Olds, the cheapest, as it's hundreds of thousands of dollars to grow a New Zealanders to adulthood.

A good young Kiwi should be able to out compete a migrant. Language competency, local knowledge and networks, etc.

by Chris-M | 26th Jul 23, 3:53pm 1690343581

Yes but the good ones who are leaving have already incurred the investment to raise and educate them. A sunk cost that we are giving away to other countries. And as you say the young Kiwis are far better. I repeat that the ones that we are replacing them with are far more likely to be a liability and further drain on the economy and not net contributors. One of their main attractions is that they are low wage workers, so again will they contribute more in taxes than they consume? A big loss on the people that we are loosing and a big loss on their replacements.

by K.W. | 26th Jul 23, 4:02pm 1690344142

But then the Govt allows all the working age migrants to import their elderly parents*, and gives them all a pension after 10 years along with free medical care.

*up to 6 people per applicant, I have no idea how someone can have 6 "parents".

by K.W. | 26th Jul 23, 3:57pm 1690343821

Of the 143,000 here on a work visa, only 12,000 of them are on an Essential Skills visa.

by sharetrader | 26th Jul 23, 12:24pm 1690331094

it would be nice to know the % of residence visa holders in NZ to see how many are moving into and owning house against renting.

i would be guessing off only 12.3% that a high proportion are renting

so would suggest that many are weighing up to stay long term or move across the ditch

by K.W. | 26th Jul 23, 4:05pm 1690344349

see my comment above. There is a 12 month lag from time of arrival to time of being able to purchase a house. These numbers only reflect purchases from those who arrived during Covid border closures, or who were already here and have obtained PR.

by DTRH | 26th Jul 23, 1:34pm 1690335273

The housing market is still tumbling kind of crazy that average wage couples in New Zealand still have no way of purchasing a property from scratch in most of the country, this is a fundamental problem for society expect more crime as people become desperate to support family.

by have no idea | 26th Jul 23, 3:06pm 1690340763

I’m not convinced.

I need to see some data with a full list of their last names included.

by K.W. | 26th Jul 23, 3:33pm 1690342395

For all those who think that investors selling up will not impact the supply of properties in the rental market because of [insert excuse here]. Truth is, the rental market for young or low income New Zealanders is disappearing as properties end up in the hands of migrants in possession of overseas earned $$$, of which there is a never ending incoming supply of.

by K.W. | 26th Jul 23, 3:37pm 1690342652

In the year to June 2018, people on residence visas accounted for 7.9% of dwelling sales. That has increased every year since to 12.4% in the 12 months to June 2023 (see table below).

Shout out to all the people who are worried about National repealing the Foreign Buyer ban, or opening the gates to immigration. Looks like Labour has already found a new way to sell houses to foreigners - allow all of them to simply move here.

by Crayhunter | 26th Jul 23, 4:14pm 1690344882

I agree with what many others are saying on here - if you are a young FHB get out of NZ and go live somewhere else, there is no opportunity here. Two of Maslows requirements i.e. shelter and food are unaffordable in this country and both could be fixed easily with a few simple policy changes. Unfortunately their is a group in NZ that will never vote for that and we all know who they are.