Both the average and median selling prices of homes sold by Auckland's largest real estate agency significantly declined in May.
Barfoot & Thompson's median selling price declined by $40,000 last month, falling to $955,000 in May from $995,000 in April.
That means the agency's median residential selling price has now declined $285,000 from its November 2021 peak of $1,240,000, and is at its lowest point since September 2020.
Barfoot's average selling selling dropped by $16,047 to $1,070,819 in May from $1,086,866 in April.
The average selling price is now $207,828 lower than the December 2021 peak of $1,278,647.
The lower selling prices were also reflected in the low level of sales. The agency sold 723 residential properties in May, up from 473 in April although May sales are usually higher than April's.
May's sales were the lowest they have been for May since 2008, apart from May 2020 when the market was in a pandemic lockdown, suggesting the housing market remains in a deep slump as it heads into winter.
However Barfoot & Thompson managing director Peter Thompson saw some positive signs in the market.
"While both the median and average sales prices for the month eased on those for April, it was the number of sales that is the standout feature, with sales being a third higher than the average monthly sales for each of the past three months," he said.
"It shows buyers are not shying away from paying current mortgage interest rates.
"It is a positive signal that after we ease through the coming winter trading months the market has the capacity to rebound," said.
The interactive chart below shows Barfoot & Thompson's main monthly sales trends.
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92 Comments
Falling Like a Rock
THERE ARE NO GREEN SHOOTS
Last month was -2.9% this month -4%
“May’s sales are another sign that the Auckland property market has either hit the bottom of the current cycle or is close to it,” Thompson said" “Eager buyers returned to the Auckland housing market in May, with property sales being their best in a month since May last year,” he said.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/aucklands-biggest-real-estate-agenc…
LOL! - HW2/3 must be itching to get on here....
Spinning like a out of control top. Keep it up Pet
HW2, is that you?
You know hin better than me I think
Interesting pick up line
LOL! Only HW2 could get three instant upticks at 6am on a Sunday morning posting insults. I always believed that if/when HW2 got banned he'd be back using one of his other usernames for sure.
I wonder if they banned Nifty as well
"Barfoot & Thompson's median selling price declined by $40,000 last month, falling to $955,000 in May from $995,000 in April."
FYI, that is a price change of -4% month on month.
but, but - but, Sydney is booming. On the way up, what happens there always happens here - always!
In this morning's breakfast briefing, we were calculating Australia's 1.2% property price rise in May to be over 14% per year annualised. 🌱🌱🌱
By the same token, that makes Auckland's 4% fall 48% per year annualised.
Gotta grow the roots before you get the shoots! Sorry, "rorts".
Careful now people, all us quote "left leaning, envious property hating rentiers, self congratulating, up-ticking, negative people" will no doubt be roiling Yvil - LOL!
Its where NZ is going 40 to 50% crash. Maybe more??
DONT catch the falling knife FHBs!
For the Tone the Comb to tell FHBs to "get in now/beeee quick !!!......Dirtbag. Where the hell is the ComCom/Fin regulator on this???
- He is using these FHBs as expendable artillery or cannon fodder, to suit his ends, to keep his real estate empire talkfests and business alive.
Don't take his poisoned bait FHBs!
Glad people don’t take your advice seriously.
To service a 1 million dollar home loan you likely need to be earning 250k+ at household level.
Nonsense to say the bottom is even remotely in sight until rates steady out at 5%.
Household income for a family of 4 @$120k will service a $450k mortgage. At current rates.
So you are bang on that $250k+ would be needed for a $1mil loan
I can speak from personnal experience. In 1979 I sold a house on the main road with a 1/4 acre section. I had bought it for $11,000 something in 1967 aged 19 years. I sold it in1978/79 for about $43,500 to the motel-owner next door. In 1975 my father induced me to build units on a large section across the road. He was a successful real estate agent which he had taken up in the 1960s after leaving teaching. So he knew the market and the units were expected to attain around $50,000. By the time they were built they barely realized $30,000 each. This was a 40% drop !!!!!!!. The reduction was probably due to the 1970s oil crisis......much the same upheaval as today's pandemic crisis.
Also, my sisters's home unit in a leafy street by top park sold late last year for $300,000 less than RV of around $1,100,000, $400,000 less than a sale in the same block a few months earlier. And the real estate agency really marketed the unit putting in maximum effort.
I believe that current real estate surveys, particularly those quoted by One Roof, are cherry-picked and don't reflect the true situation.
So, based on my experience and a lifetimes observing the RE market I would predict a general 40% down-turn from peak to bottom in the current cycle.
Furthermore, I would expect this downturn to last a good 10 to 20 years; the late -1970s housing market never recovered until the early 2000s. The
GFC crisis downturn took a good decade to recover.
The current immigration tsunami is just going to put more pressure on the rental market, but there will be fewer landlords to cater for them. It's hard to imagine these current immigrants will be house buyers........most will be students or those taking up low- to semi-skilled paid employment.
The 1970’s market recovered and grew significantly between the early 1980’s and 1987.
An adjoining owner purchase for business expansion is hardly reflective of the market
Exactly - where are the green shoots we're reading about?
There never were any green shoots, it's all a BS con job - and these figures only prove there is currently a concerted effort by some players in the RE industry to create a disinformation campaign. It maybe they knew exactly how bad the numbers were going to be - and fear a market capitulation without some sort of serious positive spin.
PR101 is to create a narrative, and establish a point of view. Spin doctors know how to shape public perception and influence the interpretation of information.
The most effective way to start and establish a narrative is to have 3 separate parties communicate the same point of view. Then reinforce that narrative over and over until it is widely believed.
In today's granny herald from Anne Gibson:
Yesterday, the Herald reported how the tide may be turning on falling values when three analysts judged fresh real estate data showed a possible floor being reached.
OneRoof, CoreLogic and ANZ Bank issued reports pointing to potentially better times ahead, despite interest rates likely staying higher for longer.
ChatGPT articulates the dark art of spin more eloquently than I can:
-
Consistency: When three separate parties express a unified point of view, it establishes consistency in the messaging and reinforces the narrative. This repetition can help solidify the key messages and make them more memorable for the target audience.
-
Credibility: When multiple parties, especially if they are reputable or influential in the industry or market, endorse the same perspective, it adds credibility to the narrative. It suggests that the viewpoint is supported by experts or key players, making it more persuasive to the audience.
-
Amplification: By having three separate parties expressing the same point of view, the reach and impact of the narrative can be amplified. Each party can use their own platforms, networks, and communication channels to spread the message, increasing its visibility and potential influence.
-
Validation: When different parties independently arrive at the same conclusion or share the same opinion, it can validate the narrative in the eyes of the audience. This validation helps build trust and confidence in the narrative, as it appears to be a consensus among knowledgeable individuals or organisations.
Great use of Chat GPT
Edit: Actually a great use of Chat GPT, not being snarky!
They even had Mike Hoskings say the market might be turning this AM, though he did not sound that convinced....
The Banks must be getting worried, forced sales going to be a significant drop from here, many will end up with negative equity hence credit provisions will be used. this has 24 months to roll.
But Tony Alexander said there was!
What are you on about? The news yesterday said everything is fine. Rate have peaked, all upwards from here. Are you saying the news got it wrong? Shame on you.
$10k per week. Those kind of figures could make a DGM blush.
$10k per week. Those kind of figures could make a DGM blush.
Those kind of hits are quite achievable in a day / week with a crypto portfolio, but becoming less common as BTC's halo starts to shine brighter and stronger than ever.
Sure, but you don't borrow three quarters of a million dollars to invest in crypto (I hope?).
$285k from peak. That's your deposit gone. Plenty of people not affected by floods must still be underwater by now.
Sure, but you don't borrow three quarters of a million dollars to invest in crypto (I hope?).
It's got to be your own money that you're willing to lose. If you don't want to get wrecked.
Deposit which includes your pension/retirement savings by way of draining kiwisaver.
dear oh dear what a terrible idea that is
That's a lot of coin , its $1 a minute 24/7 , that's worse then Wilson parking.....
LOL, Wilson Parking, where some of the past spruikers will be living soon.
I still remember a Spruiker from a previous boom, Keiran Trass, who ended up broke and living in a tent on a roundabout in Dunedin, as some sort of weird protest against himself. https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/property-guru-protester
These numbers make me blush
All of the gains I didn't spend, gone. Should have bought a spa and an EV while I had the chance.
The NZL Crashing housing market current worm far surpasses the worlds previous record holders badass downworm.... Ireland's 60% ultimate peak to mud crash. 6 Years for the IRE market to find the rocks.....at the bottom, where earnings finally supported the mortgages.
Go NZL!
Kiwis taking on the world! We love being number 1 in a list, let’s go NZ we got this
Highest Balance of Payments deficit as % of GDP in the OECD for Q42022 except for two powerhouses of Europe: Slovak Republic, and Greece.
Bronze, heading for Gold!
Continued paper to vapour transition in equity.
Resilient!
All that marketing is surely 'paying off', of course we are now 'bottoming', blah blah blah.
The property crowd come across as so crooked they couldn't lie straight in bed.
Not so much green shoots, more like green slime?
I think every LIM in Auckland now say - Potential Flooding risk....
But but but........this is definitely the bottom now right???
I look at the charts above and to me, the pain is just starting, not ending.
This could well be more houses in the lower quartile/half of the market selling rather than prices actually dropping ~4%.
There isn’t enough information to say that the same house is worth 40k less month on month. Finance being so expensive means that the upper and middle market may well have less buyers available and they’re being pushed into a cheaper housing bracket.
some will be compositional
I wonder when the mainstream media will start using the word ‘crash’? Might help a few get past the denial phase.
By the numbers, we’re crashing faster over time than the Irish. Two questions please; will prices have to drop has much as a percentage as occurred in Ireland for NZ average house price/income ratio to reach 3 to 4?
And what conditions may prevent NZ house market from bottoming out as low as the Irish one?
Thanks in advance.
number 2 - a drop in interest rates... and possible tax changes to ring fencing / Interest deductability etc....but I think National is in bed with the big Build to Rent, so that may be a negative on rental suburbs if investors bail. its going to be a divided market the old crappers on big land will fall further then the newer builds % so its sort of pointless having a single target %... better to have a view on land cost per sq m and improvement valuations.
Doubtful.
Those "old crappers" on big land will eventually be worth more than the multi unit 3 story townhouses with no body corporates and inability of the owners to do exterior maintenance (i.e. painting) without having all the other owners on board. The lack of BC in many of the Williams and Wolfbrook developments is a shortcut that will be felt in about 8 years.
Then you get the growing families that just want some grass under their feet and privacy in the backyard for a sunday afternoon backyard.
"Crappers" on big land will become more sought after, the fewer there are of them. The more that the very well built and well maintained ex-state houses get demolished for CANTU (Cheap and Nasty Townhouse Units) the more popular the remaining ex-state houses will become. They're still going strong and many of them came through the Chch quakes fairly well. Being built on piles instead of concrete slab clearly assisted with their success.
To match Ireland's fallse (to a DTI of ~2.8~), NZ house prices need approx 70% fall from peak. That's unlikely to happen - though who knows how many mortgagees are yet to be caught in the negative equity come refix trap? As it is, current interest rates dictate a 40% drop - which we're just over halfway towards. Based on historical correlations, I would expect the falls to continue for another two years or more - the rate might not even slow down that noticably as a percentage over that time, but the same percentage of a smaller number is a smaller price drop. I expect to see RE-sponsored articles talking how absolute drops are less than last months before it's all over.
Whilst people will point out that some bubbles (e.g. the US one) didn't take so long to drop as Japan or Irelands, they seem to miss that the US 'bubble' started from a DTI of 3.5 - not ~5.7~ like Ireland, or 10+ like NZ.
And Ireland hit 47% of mortgages in negative equity before it finished.
A very interesting comment, thanks for that info 👍
We should know by January, when the majority of refixes have happened and the unemployment stats are creeping. Another good figure to watch is arrears with credit cards as an indication of the level of denial as people borrow to keep their standard of living up. I'd expect there to be an upswing preceding the unemployment stats coming up
I understand people wanting to make comparison to Ireland but as someone who was there, I just don't see it happening.
Have a look at Irelands unemployment % during the time that values were falling. There was a massive amount of people employed in construction which completely died because developers were overleveraging themselves building massive housing estates in places people would never live. As a result there were hundreds of thousands of unoccupied houses in Ireland around 2010. Look into "ghost estates".
If you thought lending was loose during covid, I heard stories of people being offered 110% mortgages in Ireland. So some were in negative equity before they even got started. I don't think people making these comparisons fully realize the level of silliness that went on.
Plus for those that seem to be frothing at falling values, it's not like it all ended well for Ireland anyway. Many young people were unemployed so either left or couldn't afford to buy even after the falls. Then vulture funds came in and bought up cheap property to sit on until prices eventually went up again, which they did.
Thank you for a realistic insight into what actually happened.
Thanks for the comment.
A portent of what's to come, perhaps?
Don't worry NZ is ahead of the game
1. Young kiwis and young families are already leaving in hoards to Aussie and the UK.
2. Housing NZ is buying up loads and loads of house and land packages from developers and this will only increase.
Both my children live near Melbourne, property prices are going up, not down, and so are rents. The cost of living is about the same, I've just been there checking it out.
Might be the least of Our problems
Hal Turner Radio Show
Note the flatline between 2016 and Covid inspired silliness in 2020? Probably further to go. I'll say no more.
.
HW2 - Some thing special and very interesting is indeed happening..... its crashing !
The only positive is the increase in the number of sales. If this continues for 3+ months I'll take notice. Meanwhile .....
Winter is coming ... and many are still to re-fix.
Previously someone posted a graph of the comparison with other crashes in Ireland and US...how are we doing now?
I feel what has also been happening is agents have been trying to give the illusion the market is performing better than what it is by immediately releasing sales info on properties that "sell well". But holding back sales info on properties to 3 months plus settlement date on properties that "don't sell well".
This is obviously a short term fix and eventually reality captures up with the illusion.
Accurate. Any other industry this would be illegal
That and there are a large number of long settlement dates for sales as owner occupiers have to sell their own house to fulfil the condition on the next. Have already heard in my region of one sale 9months in now still pushing out settlement again and again in the hope the buyer can sell their house.
I hope Mr Barfoot likes Iron Maiden as Bruce Dickinson has some words for him
Across a painted desert lies a train of vagabonds
All that's left of what we were, it's what we have become
Once our empires glorious but now the empire's gone
The dead gave us the time to live and now our time is done
Now we are victorious, we've become our slaves
A land of hope and glory, building graveyards for the brave
Have you seen the writing on the wall?
Have you seen that writing?
Can you see the riders on the storm?
Can you see them riding?
Can you see them riding?
Holding on to fury, is that all we ever know?
Ignorance our judge and jury all we've got to show
From Hollywood to Babylon, holy war to kingdom come
On a trail of dust and ashes, when the burning sky is done
A tide of change is coming and that is what you fear
The earthquake is a coming, but you don't want to hear
You're just too blind to see
Have you seen the writing on the wall?
Have you seen that writing?
Can you see the riders on the storm?
Can you see them riding?
Can you see them riding, riding next to you?
Only a few sleeps until May's HPI data is out and we see the full picture.
"hat means the agency's median residential selling price has now declined $285,000 from its November 2021 peak of $1,240,000, and is at its lowest point since September 2020."
This means appox $3650.00 per week over 78 weeks......WoW.
What a world........still no bloodbath indicates how pumped up the ecenomy has been with cheap money...........
Montgomery Brewster levels
What a world........still no bloodbath indicates how pumped up the ecenomy has been with cheap money...........
Well....many possibly haven't been listening....but a small minority have 'told you so'.
These are the people routinely ridiculed around the water cooler and BBQ.
Just looking at their May market report - it says in the 12 months to May 2022 they sold 11,248 property total value $13.5 billion worth of property.
In the 12 months to May 2023 they only sold $8 billion worth of property (7,263 properties). A 40% decrease in sales value that they take their cut from.
Number of sales has dropped over these same periods of 11,248 down to 7,263.
These are big changes in revenues for them - hopefully they didn't over extend (with staff and wages etc) while the going was so good for them.
Just a little dip
So many green shoots.
Hoping to shoot some green in the morning, actually more brown not green
Sounds like you’re not shy of the green
Wow
Where are those ‘green shoots’ I keep hearing of?
Looking at the average price chart above, if prices push through 2017 - 2020 price flatline with the momentum it currently has, from a technical analysis stand point (if it holds any merit...) then the next bottom/floor could 2007 - 2012 prices.
Our GDP could seriously start contracting here soon if banks shut up shop and stop lending and more and more recent buyers are under water - and knowing the risk that if they lend, that these new debt holders could also become under water in 6 -12 months time.
But if that happens, with our persistent balance of payments deficits we could end up with a credit downgrade and our heavily indebted households would take a bath.
So that can't happen because someone told me at a BBQ on Sunday that "it will keep going up".
Whom to believe?
Imagine if SmartShares or other fund management arrangement started using public propaganda like that there will be 'green shoots' in one of their index funds - and they push this narrative (with no grounding) through the media, in order to increase the sales volume of their fund and to incresae their fees/income.
I wonder how the FMA would view this?
Why then do we tolerate it with the real estate industry?
House price crash looks like picking up speed over leveraged speculators will now be under huge financial pressure.
Indeed. About to be crushed under the weight of their own greed. The kaaaarrrkk moment is near.
Anyone got a link to a property spruiking chat group? Might be interesting to join up and listen to the chatter.
Join the Facebook group. It's an echo chamber of spruikers... but it's been infiltrated by a couple of young guys who are pro reform and it wreaks havoc. Very entertaining. Half of them have terrible grammar and can't spell for sh!t, but it adds to the circus.
I wonder if those groups ever refer to us as those pesky DGM idiots over at interest
Dunno about the market having green shoots, but I'd say it's definitely rooted.
Lots of comments closed posts
Only $455,000 to go until it hits 4 x average NZ household income of $500k. Bring it on.
Bl**dy typical getting uneven censorship, no explanation
At the end of the day property is always going to be a painful thing for the average person to acquire. You can applaud the dropping of property values however the pain threshold remains the same like some demonic governor.
Depends on what you define as painful. People often talk about "crippling" interest rates of the past, but that was not necessarily a barrier to home ownership it was a cost of owning a home.
Before one can even be eligible to take out a mortgage, they must first save a deposit. Lower the house price, smaller deposit, less time spent paying rent, more time paying down their own mortgage.
There's plenty of opportunity in the property market. Interest rates are up, people are hurting, look around where development's pending, where there's expansion in the pipeline.
I've seen these prophets of doom many times in my life, the Chicken Little's predicting market carnage are invariably wrong.
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