Falling house prices are now a features of the market in nearly every part of the country and look likely to persist for the rest of the summer at least.
A year has passed since house prices peaked in November 2021 and the latest figures from the Real Estate Institute of NZ show how much prices have fallen back since then.
The REINZ's House Price Index (HPI), which takes into account changes in the mix of properties sold each month and is widely considered the most accurate measure of overall market price movements, shows a national price decline of 13.7% since November last year, while the REINZ's national median price declined by 12.4% over the same period.
In the major centres of Auckland and Wellington the annual median price falls were even greater at -18.1% and -17.4% respectively.
The HPI was lower in November this year than it was in November last year in all major urban districts except Queenstown-Lakes. Of the 38 urban districts where interest.co.nz compared median prices in November this year with those in November last year, 33 showed declines and only five districts - Rotorua, Taupo, West Coast, Queenstown-Lakes and Invercargill, had higher median prices than they did a year ago.
The tables below show the trends for both the HPI and median prices by location.
The fact that the HPI and median figures both shows similar levels of price decline, and that price falls have in most cases been substantial and widespread, along with the sluggish state of the residential property market, suggest the slide in prices is not going to end any time soon.
In an Economic Note on the latest REINZ figures, ASB's economists stated bluntly: "This is not a market to turn around," and increased their forecast of how much the national selling price might fall from last year's peak to 25%.
"The NZ housing market looks to be continuing to decelerate based on data out from REINZ," the report said.
"On a seasonally adjusted basis, the REINZ house price indices have eased for a twelfth consecutive month on the trot as of November.
"What's more, last month's 1.9% month-on-month fall was the largest monthly fall in house prices since December 2000.
"Rather than getting closer to a floor, the present housing market downturn may be increasing in pace," the report warned.
The comment stream on this story is now closed.
REINZ House Price Index - November 2022
| REINZ Median Selling Price | ||||
| Change from November 2021 to November 2022 | ||||
| District | November 2021 | November 2022 | $ Change | % Change |
| Northland | $750,000 | $729,500 | -$20,500 | -2.7% |
| Rodney | $1,315,000 | $1,225,000 | -$90,000 | -6.8% |
| North Shore | $1,550,000 | $1,290,070 | -$259,930 | -16.8% |
| Waitakere | $1,190,000 | $920,000 | -$270,000 | -22.7% |
| Central suburbs | $1,540,000 | $1,190,000 | -$350,000 | -22.7% |
| Manukau | $1,230,000 | $1,050,000 | -$180,000 | -14.6% |
| Papakura | $1,130,000 | $850,000 | -$280,000 | -24.8% |
| Franklin | $973,000 | $900,000 | -$73,000 | -7.5% |
| Auckland Region | $1,300,000 | $1,065,000 | -$235,000 | -18.1% |
| Hamilton | $881,000 | $790,000 | -$91,000 | -10.3% |
| Tauranga | $1,000,000 | $902,000 | -$98,000 | -9.8% |
| Rotorua | $680,000 | $685,000 | $5,000 | 0.7% |
| Taupo | $790,000 | $823,500 | $33,500 | 4.2% |
| Gisborne | $685,000 | $660,000 | -$25,000 | -3.6% |
| Napier | $830,000 | $723,000 | -$107,000 | -12.9% |
| Hastings | $870,000 | $700,000 | -$170,000 | -19.5% |
| New Plymouth | $720,000 | $650,000 | -$70,000 | -9.7% |
| Whanganui | $542,500 | $450,000 | -$92,500 | -17.1% |
| Palmerston North | $720,000 | $625,000 | -$95,000 | -13.2% |
| Kapiti Coast | $910,000 | $840,000 | -$70,000 | -7.7% |
| Porirua | $1,013,000 | $815,000 | -$198,000 | -19.5% |
| Upper Hutt | $920,143 | $762,500 | -$157,643 | -17.1% |
| Lower Hutt | $920,000 | $675,000 | -$245,000 | -26.6% |
| Wellington City | $1,099,000 | $920,000 | -$179,000 | -16.3% |
| Wellington Region | $962,500 | $795,000 | -$167,500 | -17.4% |
| Nelson | $736,000 | $700,000 | -$36,000 | -4.9% |
| Marlborough | $705,000 | $700,000 | -$5,000 | -0.7% |
| Tasman | $870,000 | $869,500 | -$500 | -0.1% |
| West Coast | $350,000 | $420,000 | $70,000 | 20.0% |
| Christchurch | $700,500 | $680,000 | -$20,500 | -2.9% |
| Selwyn | $870,000 | $790,000 | -$80,000 | -9.2% |
| Timaru | $445,000 | $460,000 | $15,000 | 3.4% |
| Canterbury | $690,000 | $668,000 | -$22,000 | -3.2% |
| Central Otago | $760,000 | $730,000 | -$30,000 | -3.9% |
| Queenstown-Lakes | $1,230,000 | $1,350,000 | $120,000 | 9.8% |
| Dunedin | $650,000 | $600,000 | -$50,000 | -7.7% |
| Otago | $730,000 | $685,000 | -$45,000 | -6.2% |
| Invercargill | $462,000 | $485,000 | $23,000 | 5.0% |
| All of Aotearoa | $925,000 | $810,000 | -$115,000 | -12.4% |
149 Comments
Have to say Greg, I do look forward to your article photos (your articles also), they are getting scarier and scarier though. Off to read it now.
Don't you like that cantilevered viewing platform?
The beach is literally at your doorstep....
Is this an engineered or photo shopped image
Much like the engineering done on the actual ppty market eh.
After all a jack in the box squeezed, shoved down and lid slammed shut is there waiting its moment to emerge. Enjoy the metaphor 🏘🍻
Nobody is likening the property market to a "jack in the box". That's loony talk.
A bubble is the common metaphor. Once a bubble experiences an "arrogant prick" its game over.
arrogant prick
Yes, how are the Australians
HW2 "do you think" that's a little harsh?
Friendly remark actually
Lovely people. It's kinda like a first world version of New Zealand.
I doubt the image is photoshopped HW. it was published in a report on coastal erosion by Oregon State University.
Thanks
Hi Greg, great photo! Since both are referenced regarding the photo source (below the photo and in your comment), Oregon State University and University of Oregon are two different schools that are staunch rivals of one another. 👍
Oops. Thanks HM.
That's one of those new "Infinity" decks, haven't you heard the RE agents using that term ?
Defiantly one of those houses for professional couple not intending to have kids.
Good for stepping off when you find your mortgage payments are doing a Buzz Lightyear when you refix.
I wonder if they have resource consent for that long drop.
Don't worry about the scary image. For some here, the view is still good, for others, the RBNZ will ensure an ambulance is ready and waiting for you at the bottom......
Hon, where are the kids?
What will be the ambulance this time?
2.2% mortgages and 5% deposits were the ambulance in 2020. 1% mortgages next?
When you call an ambulance to messier and messier situations, the ambulance eventually isn't enough to give aid.
Cue repeated 2022 comments X 140.
I have heard evidence that some buyers are returning expecting National to win the next election and re-ignite the used house market. I believe National needs to be very clear now if they will definitely be returning all rental housing to rent/mortgage write off. The developers will be seriously affected by this decision as investors are favouring the new build market for the tax exemption, which I believe is a good idea and adds new supply to the market, with work to the construction sector.
The main reason I think anyone thinking of voting National/Act should reconsider.
NZ has a few problems but over-priced housing is one of the worst. It would be a tragedy to lose the opportunity for a correction, and it would also have the benefit of reprogramming the locals away from the "housing always goes up" mindset.
Seymour is the epitome of sensible. His response to the PMs nasty SAP such an arrogant prick remark was very well worded and relevant
He's an opportunist just like Winnie. Lets face it, without that sliver tea spoon JK placed in Banks and subsequently David's mouth he wouldn't even have a foot in parliament
Seymour would not do anything that might upset the good citizens of Epsom, after all his survival depends on it.
Totally agree sparrow
Totally agree with you sparrow.
They will play the same game as John Key did and cut young kiwis lunches again.
Although they may not have the laundered money that JK had with AML now but they will still open the door to let it in.
Not good at all.
I have heard evidence that some buyers are returning expecting National to win the next election and re-ignite the used house market.
"Some buyers" need a reality check then, if they think a change of government is likely to turn the housing market around. Fiscal policy will have little effect on what is largely a monetary phenomenon.
Good news for those desperate to exit the housing market, though. National voters with a poor understanding of markets and a penchant for get-rich-quick schemes may offer them some respite.
Ponzi best way to describe how National will work they created the biggest ponzi this country ever seen 2008 to 2018.
Now it is time to take the Medicine.
The Ponzi started in 2001
The Ponzi started in 2001
Quite possibly earlier. You might be able to stretch the starting point back to 1996-1998.
Gee wished got in on that one.
Is that how all the baby boomers made their money?
Gee wished got in on that one.
Is that how all the baby boomers made their money?
Bank reforms across the Anglosphere happened in the early 90s. The whole idea of creating credit for the housing market really took off. Once the ball get rolling, it became too hard to stop. Remember, total housing stock value to GDP in NZ is now 4-5x. Japan topped out around 3x during the peak of its epic bubble. If you look at NZ-h'hold debt to income at the end of the Japan bubble, it has worsened 2x while that of Japan has flatlined. The h'hold debt to GDP comparison is even worse.
JC
And your views on the Laundered money and printed money over the last 14 years.
Is this info based on latest (down nearly 20%) property values, or earlier?
Assuming our gdp is roughly stable then this seems to be rapidly correcting itself...
Justa Comment - you make a very valid point regarding how the repeal of interest deductability could hurt developers. At current interest rates and prices it makes little sense for investors to be in either market, new or 2nd hand, but I guess if you pulled this support from developers it could be another nail in the marginal players coffins. Its a long way till November, and many developers will not make it unless new orders contracts come in way before then.
Perhaps its lose lose,
if you take it off, some immediate loss of investment flow to developers
if you keep it on investment house prices/bids will fall to compensate for the loss of tax deduction and the 30% that will need to be paid on the rent income. eventually they fall enough and investors re-enter, starving developer flows at the bottom.
End of the day developers are playing a high risk game, it has always been that way and people get into development to make a lot of profit. If you win, there are very big gains; if you lose, you will really lose - maybe everything. That’s why development projects have very high holding costs, contingencies and profit margins applied to the project budget at the outset, in case market conditions change. Suspect some may not have been applying these safeguards and may not have seen this market turn coming.
The tax deductibility and a number of Kaianga Ora projects may have been propping up developments and with some good reason I guess to try to encourage home building, but it has derisked developing and meant that developers have been able to take super profits without taking on the true risk. These risks are all here now - increased build costs, huge holding costs, inability to sell finished build etc. It is not a place for ordinary Joe or Jane or marginal players to be investing. So if developers are going to lose this time…… that’s just what happens at this point in the cycle.
The people we need to worry about now are the unpaid subcontractors and any purchasers who have made non refundable progress payments.
IT Guy : Thats why National needs to come out now with a confirmed policy of removing the interest deductability, and exactly when this will happen. I actually feel for the developers and those who are doing this country a favour and building NEW homes now. If the developers know for sure at least they can plan to limit the damage.
If there are more homeowners than non homeowners in New Zealand, I would assume that there wouldn't really be a housing crisis in the first place. Apparently 68% of people live in owner occupied dwellings and that's the stat we're using to calculate homeownership which seems to be misleading.
I'm going to assume that there's less homeowners than there are homeowners in NZ. So I'm not sure if pumping the housing bubble again will actually get more votes for National as the falling house prices are viewed as a good thing for the majority that don't own their own house.
Might be wrong. Thoughts?
My understanding is 64% of households are owner occupied but 50% of adults don't own the house they live in. Explained by more adults per rental and adult kids living at home.
Agreed. Speculand is holding on for National to return us to the John Key mass tax avoidance Bank profit support model.
Nat's have advised they are going to role back a bunch of the property normalization (also called anti landlord) changes. In my mind it the Nat's do win and reintroduce tax rinsing it will simply drive more of our younger best future tax payers to Aussie. Aussie is targeting that with their proposed changes for Kiwis to access citizenship. Aussie will no doubt keep exporting the non tax consumers back to NZ.
I have worked through the numbers and restoring interest deductibility will make little difference to the market, because at 7-8% interest rate levels and rental yields at 2-3%, cashflow on rental properties will still be so negative that paying tax is the least of their worries. This applies to brand new properties currently which is why sales are drying up even though they still have full deductibility. It won't even be enough to stem the flood of sellers forced to sell up next year as there is not much tax being paid even at next year's lower 50% deductibility due to the gap between interest rates and yields. The only thing it might do is get landlords to return to buying and renting out 3 bedroom family homes in the suburbs to families, instead of buying 2 bedroom townhouses in the city and renting them to professional couples, and thereby lower the number of children currently living in emergency accommodation.
I wonder if restoring interest deductibility will enable the banks to raise rates even higher?
- $500k property, 60% LVR, 5% gross yield.
- Without Deduct: $25k p.a. rent, $7k exp, $18k IO at 6%. Net income = $18k = $6k tax bill.
- With Deduct: $25k rent, $7k exp, $24k IO at 8% = $6k increase in interest.
Say the banks were to increase to a max of 7% without deductibility (above that risk of defaults), their new limit is 9% with deductions.
On One News yesterday, the look of the delighted couple with kids who just bought their first home was nice. Paving the way for others to do similar
Of course it's at the expense of the vendor losing out, but who cares. The vendor could likely be a family trading up to next home
"The vendor could likely be a family trading up to next home"
How do you know this? Could it be that you've taken to speculating at a whole new level?
I dont. However I bet you have a 'premonition' you want to offer
Sure do and it will be more accurate than the one you gave back in Nov-21😆
The other day, a commentator suggested you might well be Tony Alexander.
What 'premonition' was that I gave then
by HW2 | 22nd Nov 21, 8:59pm
"If you are smart you will never ever lose from property, everyone's a winner baby.... almost everyone"
Premonition - "a strong feeling that something is about to happen"
I think your comment fits the criteria of a premonition.
Hold up!
If you dont believe me ask one of our fellow commenters NZDan
He recounted how his vendor made 8 percent over 10 years and he made 270 percent over 4.5 years
We can debate whether the vendor was "smart" judging by his poor choices for tenant, but even this unfortunate investor eked out a profit.
NZDan on the other hand bought well, sold well. Now in his forever home and not looking back. Also remember that NZDan bought last December ish.
WOW, you've really got the skills (extreme sarc)
NZDan has the skills, well done to him.
As for me, a very average property investor, just smart enough.
265% to be precise. But yes it set us up very well in our current place. All down to luck of right place, right time and regularly talking to the right people (agents) rather than passively scrolling through TradeMe.
You never know what dirty shadow listings might come across an agent's desk that they want a quick sale on.
Isn't someone a bit touchy today..!
by Chairman Moa | 12th Dec 22, 3:02pm
Completely irrelevant and ridiculous comment deleted. - GN.
Need I remind you?
I had a chuckle at that story, thought REINZ might have had to search a bit to get the good news story in the housing market at present. Having said that it is a great time to trade IF you have sold/know you can sell your house.
My question below:
What strategy is best for a houseowner
Sell now, buy later. Or buy now, sell later [leaving aside buy and sell on same market]
Your answer will clearly show which camp you're in
In your scenario, is the house-owner in good financial health?
An intelligent question from the back of the room
Do you need some financial advice?
I like Propeller Property's strategy here;
Sell in Nov 2021 and go renting.
Spruiker's always have the best strategy's
The vendor has likely owned the property for more than 2 years and so any losses would be minimal right? If they're buying /selling in the same market for purposes of having a roof over their heads then all good. It seems the only losers in the market we find ourselves in now are the speculators
You certainly would be regretting listening to Printer8 or Albert2020.
Or TA. He is more culpable, he is after all an economist with high profile.
TA has listed six reasons why house prices won't collapse in 2023.
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/42821
Knowing his track record - BRACE!
That's odd I don't recall ever offering advice to go out and buy a house in late 2021. We bought a house because it was an amazing property, could afford it and intend to live there for the next 30 years. What I did state however was that you would have to be a complete muppet to try and build a house in the armpit of australia during a building and labor supply crunch, watching your construction loan interest costs increase rapidly and then to sit there in your rental whilst your unbuilt house value plummets just like queensland properties are currently doing. You moved in yet Brocky/Future/Premonition/Prophet ???
"suggest the slide in prices is not going to end any time soon."
"Rather than getting closer to a floor, the present housing market downturn may be increasing in pace," the report warned.
Well it's early days but beautifully on track to fulfil this Prophecy from the 2nd Scroll.
"Property Prices will Crash for ALL of 2023 and 2024."
The collapse in prices is pretty certain now. The next question now is how far will they fall and how badly will it affect the rest of the economy? And for how long.
Is that you Future ? member for 1 day, sounds like you are back.,
Future has passed to the other side.
The Disciple now joins us to preach fiscal discipline.
Wherever Future, or The Prophet, are I hope they are reading this.
Kudos to them, and bl**dy well done with their "30% falls by Christmas!" predictions.
I never would have believed it, but it looks like they are going to be very very close to correct. We will know the Christmas prices in February/March and at the current pace of falls, we will be pushing reasonably close to 30%.
Very few people predicted this. The Prophet was pretty much the only person I know of who called things so closely. Best/most accurate predictions on this site. Blew the likes of Combover Tony and even Sharon Zollner out of the water.
Plenty on int.co predicted it.
It was one reason I've promoted the site to others. My message to them was as well as reading the msm go and get some balance from articles and commentators on int.co. (is it offensive to not consider int.co as msm..?)
No, I think you are right. The MSM I have access to seems to just use REINZ press releases which up until recently have only presented positive data ( yoy increases still +ve, despite the market falling monthly)and updates from bank economists, who obviously did not want to scare the horses so were always conservative. Many people I talked to up until recently were surprised the RE market was even falling.
This is a fantastic site, we should all support it. Comments are good too.
No, I think you are right. The MSM I have access to seems to just use REINZ press releases which up until recently have only presented positive data ( yoy increases still +ve, despite the market falling monthly)and updates from bank economists, who obviously did not want to scare the horses so were always conservative. Many people I talked to up until recently were surprised the RE market was even falling.
Yep. It's one big propaganda machine with very little independent thought.
MSM promote stories that align with the views of their advertisers. Actual journalistic integrity is long gone. They are simply propaganda disseminators now, whether that be for private or Government interests. Long may alt-media survive so some of us can get access to what is really happening, or likely to happen.
The comments are the best thing about the site. I am glad the site provides a platform for the comments, so am appreciative of that. The site does provide some good information and some good articles too. Would like to see some more critical analysis though, many of the articles are simply relaying information (although that’s still useful). It’s the comments where most of the interesting critical analysis occurs.
I keep hearing about the Prophet. But is there a copy of his scrolls for reference? thanks.
I believe the second scroll was posted in its entirety yesterday.
It did mention something about unvaccinated blood becoming sought after. Is there a futures market for that yet?
Sir John Key predicts mortgage rates will "have a 7 in front of them" into 2023.
In 1995, he joined Merrill Lynch as head of Asian foreign exchange in Singapore. That same year he was promoted to Merrill's global head of foreign exchange, based in London, where he may have earned around US$2.25 million a year including bonuses, which is about NZ$5 million at 2001 exchange rates.[
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Key
I wonder if John Key always knew Interest Rates will go to 7% this Year , Guaranteed ?
ANZ Certainly has a few 7s for sale.
The Prophet sure knew !
https://www.interest.co.nz/borrowing
And with the amount of Popcorn The Prophet would buy I have always wondered what he did for a day job. He never really did say, just would grin from ear to ear leaving the butter from the popcorn dripping off his lobes.
I guess some things are just a Mystery.
Thanks for the link to Sir John's interview, an awesome piece indeed!
Lets start BloodCoin .......
Hi have no idea. The 1st Scroll can be found here.
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/117891/anz-first-bank-raise…
I am The Prophets Disciple.
It won’t be anywhere near 30% by Xmas, when looking at NZ as a whole.
More likely 17-18%.
Sure people can be selective and pick out one or two locations where it’s down by 30% and claim ‘the prophecy’ was true…
"7% Interest Rates This Year, Guaranteed ! - Prophecy Confirmed.
-30% Crash In Home Prices by December , it's a Certainty ! - Prophecy Confirmed.
South Wairarapa District is the First to Break the -30% Barrier, setting the Trend ".
This has now Broken the Seal to the Second Scroll. The Prophets Scroll will be released before Christmas.
"All eight Territorial Authorities (TAs) had negative annual median price movements, with South Wairarapa seeing the greatest decrease, down 33.7%, followed by Carterton, down 26.5%."
Of course the spruikers will try to claim it should be for the whole country, but some areas go down while others go up making the average absolutely meaningless, but a fantastic tool to deceive the gullible. This is how the RE Industry claimed the GFC was just a little blip in the radar, when in fact it was devastating . Property drops or increases need to be insular to know what is really going on.
Where is Kjdorian today HouseMouse ?
So by your logic, I can extrapolate Queenstown Lakes District HPI which went up by over +5% over the last 12 months, therefore I can conclude the housing market in NZ is UP… Com'on you know that's rubbish!
HouseMouse, I really do think that we will see an acceleration of falls in December. Just going on what I've seen in my local market. And taking into account the psychology of that 75bp Shock n Orr OCR raise.
And I know that the "prophesy" didn't distinguish between real or nominal falls... but if you add 7-8% inflation in, then the falls are really starting to get up there. I personally only consider real and not nominal falls, because my capital is placed in inflation proof investments.
I'm a property bear. Sold my house and went renting, even, because I was so confident in a crash. But I never, ever, thought that the crash would happen so fast. It is quite literally a world beating crash in terms of speed.
I can picture it. Vendors looking to sell before Christmas, already "spent" their proceeds mentally, only to arrive at Christmas without a buyer.
Maybe property discussions won't be such a hot topic at the BBQs this year, or met with a stern "don't want to talk about it".
Will there be heavy discounts between now and then?
I am a long term property bear.
However some nonsense gets spouted by ‘ultra bears’, just as it gets spouted by property bulls.
Might be in the Hutt Valley though, the Hutt was first to start falling and is still going. There are a number of areas in the lower North Island that had massive increases; these all need to roll back. At 26.6% decrease, this months HPI in The Hutt is getting mighty close.
Kudos to them, and bl**dy well done with their "30% falls by Christmas!" predictions…. it looks like they are going to be very very close to correct
Fitz, did you really miss yesterday's article about the latest HPI in November?
The REINZ House Price Index, which takes into account changes in the mix of properties sold each month, is now down 13.7% compared to the peak a year ago.
13.7% down is very far away from 30%, sure it's like to drop a bit more in December, but it will be about half of the 30% predicted, a very large miss!
A lot depends on how you count things. I said in a reply above that I personally am looking at real, not nominal, falls. Once you add inflation in there, the numbers get bigger.
Also, from what I've seen locally, and after that gut wrenching shock n Orr 75 bp raise, we could well find that the December numbers are dropping quite quickly.
Yvil. -30% Crash in Home Prices by December, it's a certainty Prophecy has already been fulfilled .
I understand you would like to claim it is not, for your reasons of a whole country average. And I have stated for The Prophets reasons that it is fulfilled. Fitzgerald also has other ways of measuring it, and that may still happen.
But here is the thing. Even when Interest rates went to 7% not every bank, or interest term, sold their loans at 7%. It just doesn't work that way all at once. But the Prophecy was still fulfilled because 7% Interest rates this year , Guaranteed is what happened. And by the way, you will see every single rate by every single mainstream bank sell their mortgage rates at 7% or more next year if that helps. And thank you for giving credit where credit is due when you acknowledged The Prophet for being so correct on the 7% Prophecy. A certain mouse and his special friend still refuse to apologize and thank The Prophet for his accuracy. So Yvil that makes you the BIGGER man than the mouse, and you are on the other team so that sure says a lot. Well Done.
I guess it is going to be a harder one to measure than what was thought. But I knew The Prophet very well, and he would always tell me that it's what you hear at the BBQ that would matter. People talking about the -33% Crash in Home Prices for South Wairarapa, -26.6% Crash in Lower Hutt, that's what goes through people's minds and emotions. Oh, and by the way, every single Area, Region etc etc will have its turn going below -30%. It just does not happen all at once, and I know you know that as well. We may have to agree to disagree.
The Disciple.
Exactly!!!!!
Which is why all this crap about 30% down by Xmas is a load of garbage.
TBH, I often wondered if 2022 and other monikers was someone from the RBNZ trying to help speed up a bit of community discussion. You know, since people are obviously not listening to Orr's warnings.
"What's more, last month's 1.9% month-on-month fall was the largest monthly fall in house prices since December 2000.
"Rather than getting closer to a floor, the present housing market downturn may be increasing in pace," the report warned.
You will know that the market has at least paused if the 3 month rolling average in house price moves turns positive, until then its downhill for prices.
This supertanker has now turned south and is accelerating, it's not been heading south THIS FAST sine Dec 2000.
It sounds ridiculous, but I think this might be my family's best chance to get a nicer, bigger home in a better area than the house we've got. At some point someone is going to need to sell more than I need to buy and the stars might align. There might be opportunities out there for millennials who have held through the last three or four years that were previously out of reach.
That's not ridiculous at all.
It's one of those markets where selling first is the way to go.
If you have to move, then sure. But I think we've probably got the luxury of time on our side. It seems like the next houses we would be looking at are the ones people stretched at the top to pay insane amounts for. They're going to fall a lot quicker than the value of our place will. The bank gets paid, one way or the other.
And at the end of the day we have the option of hunkering down and doing what we can in the meantime, like we have done for years. Rushing things seems like a surefire recipe for trouble.
GV27 - The Covid effect has still to be completely removed. With all the joy around property prices returning from outer orbit, it's easy to forget that we still haven't got close to returning to pre covid prices nationally.
Was thinking the same, but pretty hard to give up our 5 year fixed rate which starts with a 2...
A worthwhile, but time-consuming read.
Some governments have actually made this worse by ‘helping’ young people to go deeply into debt in order to shore up property prices to the benefit of their elders. There is nothing here that any reasonable person would try to defend....The tidal-wave of cheap money poured into the economy over the past fourteen years, whilst it may have enriched some, has created paper, notional or non-realisable gains for the majority of investors, including those ‘ordinary’, non-wealthy people whose wealth is often based on inflated property values which, in the aggregate, cannot be turned into cash..... Because GDP is a measure, not of material value but of transactional activity, we have been able to inject cosmetic “growth” into the system through an expansion in credit, with each $1 of reported increase in GDP being accompanied by more than $3 of net new borrowing over a period stretching back to the 1990s. Economic historians of the future are likely to date these processes from the 1990s, and to identify the GFC of 2008-09 as the first demonstration of the reality that using liability expansion to create synthetic “growth” is not a workable solution.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2022/12/12/244-in-search-o…
A great read. 👍 Investing 101.
What strategy is best for a houseowner
Sell now buy later. Or buy now sell later
Your answer will clearly show which camp you're in
As is noted in the above link, at the individual level, it doesn't matter.
But in aggregate, it can't be done in unison. ie. If everyone tries to sell at the same time, no matter when that time is, it can't be done. "..when investors rush for the exit-doors, those doors get smaller."
Avoid the question at all costs, are you a politician
The best strategy for a home owner is to live in their home. They aren’t basketball cards.
Of course you would miss the point malamah
You're right, I must've. Please, enlighten me, what's your point again?
He thinks everyone misses the point malamah, it’s a standard comment for a 60 year old property investing knuckle dragger
you just don't get it. Getting in early and abusing property so future generations can never own wasn't an easy task.
Best option for home owners is ignore all options, just don't sell and don't buy.
Fantastic long May it continue.
Its time the doors where opened wide for young New Zealanders
Is the author an owner of this website? This is clickbait of the highest order.
This is reality even if you don,t like it.
And its about time
Interesting after all the reports of prices “levelling out”, here we have the biggest single month fall yet. Only 3.5% to go if TA is correct.
<Narrator> He is not correct.
Just to confirm - HW2 can you please ask
Mirror Mirror on the wall, who is the worst professional commentator of them all?
feel free to provide the top three....
Is HW2 permitted to self nominate?
I remember last year during the same month telling one acquaintance that stop bidding on that house in which they went 500k above CV on a property which had a recent CV of 900k. They didn't listen and kept fighting with another bidder until they won and paid a staggering 60% above CV.
I am sure they do not want to discuss it with me over a BBQ.
But then human psychology is a very interesting topic to explore. And kiwi psychology on top of it is like impossible to know when it comes to housing.
"What's more, last month's 1.9% month-on-month fall was the largest monthly fall in house prices since December 2000.
"Rather than getting closer to a floor, the present housing market downturn may be increasing in pace,"
@TTP - a penny for your thoughts.
"blah blah resilience blah blah"
TTP, probably
Lately, when commenting in articles that involve house price movement, he no longer uses "sticky down" or "sticky up" as his take on the state of the market pricing.
Now that its in free fall, it is he that's stuck.
The *rate increase* beatings will continue until morale improves.
All us pricks need to be beaten further into submission.
Comment deleted
Read this as a start
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/85960352/blowing-bubbles-that…
John Edens00:01, Dec 02 2016 article , now here we are 6 years on, man thats actually a scary article if considered in the current context.
I expect a lot of comparisons in media over Xmas between NZ and Ireland and the possibilities.....
Thank you. I felt like my comment was a bit dumb and out of comparison with IE situation in 2000's, so deleted it.
It sure is quiet out there in the housing, motor vehicle and boat markets. One can only imagine next year will be a very difficult time for vendors. An offer will have to be considered no matter how cheeky.
Maybe all the cycleways around Auckland will get more use as real estate agents trade in (hand back) the Range Rover for an e-bike....
I have asked before - What does the industry look like at 50% sales numbers and 50% off prices, thats a 75% revenue reduction...
Agents will have banked some of the last ten years super profits, and not leveraged up on speuboxes for tax minimisation and or leased flash cars....
Sold a 2nd hand car recently and listed it about 15-20% cheaper than the market on trademe for same car, similar kms.
Took almost 3 months to sell and even then, I sold it at the minimum I was going to take.
Kittens and puppies 10 percent higher prices than last year. Classic car market selling well
sounds just like selling a second hand house......
I would not describe open homes as quiet.
Busy open homes - that must mean the market is about to lift off?
On the one hand we have REINZ presenting fact
last month's 1.9% month-on-month fall was the largest monthly fall in house prices since December 2000.
One the other hand we have HW2's delusional comments that the market is like a jack in the box, that there is pent up demand just waiting to buy, and that the train is leaving the station.
A delusion is a belief that is clearly false and that indicates an abnormality in the affected person's content of thought. The false belief is not accounted for by the person's cultural or religious background or his or her level of intelligence.
.
I would.
This so called housing bubble reminds me of the time of the 1987 fall. People talking about how much they were making trading shares,articles in the media on shares and share clubs etc,also people borrowing money to buy shares. A lot of people lost everything and have never come back to investing in the sharemarket to this day.
They didn’t lose everything and those who hung in there have made squillions since. I personally know several people who have always had a modest income. They chose to invest in equities on a regular basis and have multi million portfolios today providing a great annual income. Those who chose not to invest in equities since 1987 have missed out on a great opportunity.
I agree with you.I have been invested in shares since before 1987 and still am. Some did lose a lot of money though.
People lost some but not everything. And they bounced back as always. It pays to be in equities and property.
Yep, I was involved in research in the community back in the late ‘80s, and lots of hardship in all the places that we all know, but encountered a number of more well off families who had lost their homes because large mortgages had been drawn down on the family homes to purchase shares. I was interviewing primarily mothers - so they told me the whole story - usually in tears.
I wonder how many squillions they made by hanging in there with their Equitycorp shares?
People who bought shares like Goldcorp and Equiticorp were novices to the game like the fools who bought their first rental last year. Seasoned investors who had blue chip shares in 87 went backwards but soon bounced back. Some bought more in 87 which was a smart move.
The equity conversation will be different this year. Paper increasingly becomes...vapor.
Its high time that we Kiwis as a nation pick up a new hobby rather that "going to open homes" on the weekend.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.