A slight improvement in Barfoot & Thompson's sales figures in September suggests there was at least a hint of spring in the air.
The real estate agency, which is the largest in Auckland, sold 614 residential properties in September, up from 578 in August.
However September's sales volumes were still the lowest they have been in any September month since 2008.
Price signals were more mixed with the agency's median selling price continuing to fall, dropping to $1,064,000 in September. down by $47,000 compared to August's median of $1,111,000.
September's median was also $36,000 lower than the September median last year.
Barfoot's median selling price has now declined by $176,000 from its November 2021 peak, when it hit $1,240,000.
However the average selling price increased slightly to $1,164.852 in September, up by $6953 compared to August.
New listings received in September were little changed at 1301 compared to 1394 in August, while the agency's total stock on hand remains elevated.
Barfoot's had a total of 4567 residential properties available for sale at the end of September, up by 67% compared to September last year.
That was the most stock on hand in the month of September since 2011, which suggests buyers will still have plenty to choose from and will be feeling little pressure to commit to a quick purchase.
Barfoot & Thompson director Kiri Barfoot said sales were concentrated on properties priced under $1 million.
"There was a significant shift in the price bracket where sales were made in September," she said.
"In September, 46% of our sales in the month were properties priced at under $1 million.
"For most months of the year sales in the under $1 million price category have ranged between the low 30s to 40% of total sales."
The interactive chart below shows the long term trends in Barfoot & Thompson's monthly sales numbers and the average and median selling prices.
The comment stream on this story is now closed.
Barfoot Auckland
Select chart tabs
- You can have articles like this delivered directly to your inbox via our free Property Newsletter. We send it out 3-5 times a week with all of our property-related news, including auction results, interest rate movements and market commentary and analysis. To start receiving them, register here (it's free) and when approved you can select any of our free email newsletters.
107 Comments
Hard to spin this
"There was a significant shift in the price bracket where sales were made in September," she said. "In September, 46% of our sales in the month were properties priced at under $1 million."
So we are seeing vendors above the million mark less interested in selling, those under are more interested in meeting the market.....
As we all know, Pyramid Schemes invariably collapse from the Bottom, as less new entrants support all the structures above.
Soft landing. Be quick!
It is soft landing till now and will depnds what happens in future from here on.
Shifting in first gear is hard but than is swift and smooth.
Wait and Watch
Judged by the level of response to interest.co.nz articles, enthusiasm for housing has reached an astonishing level.
I never thought for a moment that there would be so many groups (from the super-wealthy, to mum-and-dad investors, to FHBs, through to the DGM) so keenly absorbed in the housing market - during such a mild/ timid correction. (House prices are falling at a much slower rate than they rose through 2020-21.)
For sure, like many other markets, housing market activity is cyclical....... But given the ultra-keen response of people at this juncture in the cycle, we might well anticipate a decent surge in activity levels (and house prices) when the next upswing kicks in.
TTP
I'm ultra keen to continue watching your comedy while the wheels fall off the bus.
Cyclical? Yeah ok buddy, if this is a typical cycle, my wife is Kim Kardashian.
This party is just getting started TTP, stick around.... Just like inflation :)
Hi Thats All Folks,
........my wife is Kim Kardashian.
Do as you please, my friend....... But I'd wager that you're better off saving your money to buy a house - than spending it on Kim.
TTP
I’ll be better off saving my money to buy a house - in 2024
Well I must say, the deposit and it’s purchasing power are growing every month.
I’d hazard a guess that Kim and I will be just fine.
Sitting on the sidelines never felt so good 😊
This is just such an idiotic theory. People are “keenly absorbed”, yes. That’s because almost everyone lives in a property. This doesn’t imply some latent demand to once again spend 10x+ the average household income on them.
People eat food everyday. This doesn’t mean they’re hoarding potatoes or making leveraged investments in Talleys or Foodstuffs.
Maslow Hierarchy
Some how you seem to put shelter with Self-Actualization that's some leap.
- Physiological Needs. Food, water, clothing, sleep, and shelter are the bare necessities for anyone's survival. ...
- Safety and Security. Once a person's basic needs are satisfied, the want for order and predictability sets in. ...
- Love and Belonging. ...
- Esteem. ...
- Self-Actualization.
Some cycles have lower troughs after high peaks and some curves are very long and horizontal looking. Popcorn for the long troughs will come in handy.
See that, DTRH? Now THAT is how to spruik.
I am now noticing a number of properties that were listed above the 1M, now below that level..
That clearly explains the increase in sales below that level
Or those same segment of houses that were selling at >$1m are now selling <$1m.
Or FHB are taking a bigger share of the market, as per a recent article here. Stands to reason the value of actual properties sold would dip.
Hard to spin this
dont worry, someone will be along soon to try
Time To Ponder!
Taking The Piss.
Time To Panic.
Time To Purchase
Timing The Property-market
Tony's Timing Propaganda
... ask Ashley Church ! ... if anyone could put a gloss on it he could ...
Ashley would say that prices are well above the prices in 1980 and therefore growth over the next 40 years is guaranteed. He would then say that it is always a good time to buy.
On himself is that ?
Hard to interpret that data - how do you distinguish between a change in composition of sales from a change in price? Good for people trying to read meaning in the tea leaves, I've mostly just been watching the HPIs.
yes the 176k drop in median now closer to 15% than 10%. Orr will be very happy.
There is something that tickles the egos of many in that they can say “My house is worth blah blah million dollars” or “Just sold my house for blah blah million dollars” so desperately do not want to drop below the 7 figures. I have one around the corner from me, currently in its 8th month on the market.
People want out of NZ, not into 30 year mortgages.
Its hard to have a lot of confidence when gouvernement is more interested in co-governance then balaning the books.... they spending so much so fast OCR has to be a few big figures higher then it would if they where focused on health and crime vs vested interests.
✈️✅
You should be a travel agent Brook (seems you are sticking around in the land of the long white crowd)? ..sorry cloud - trigger alert
Hi Aaron,
The internet transcends borders and travel agents are well on their way to being automated out of existence.
Perhaps next we will train up an AI to automate grievance blogging and get some of that sweet PIJF money.
Kia Ora Broke...will let my local House of Travel staff know - they are still holding your Sydney tickets as well?.
They are already well aware that the internet is cutting out the middlemen. Their remaining customer base is those with low computer literacy.
Sydney?
Sorry Broome..or have you decided to cancel the move?
Kalgoorlie.
Given recent irrational price jumps, I'm sure it's just a positive sign of an orderly market correction where prices are settling somewhat, with vendors and buyers operating in a price discovery phase, before resuming their more reliable trajectory towards doubling every 7-10 years, as they have historically done.
Be quick to buy the dip - looing like plenty of room for upward valuation going forward, for the astute buyer!
The sarcasm is getting more subtle. Nicely entertaining.
We hit an irrational price peak of last year so this year's correction is well expected by all. Be quick to take advantage of this unique buying opportunity as we quickly march back towards that irrational peak of last year.
... "$ 176 000 down from November 2021 peak " ...
That's " cooling " if you're a property speculator ...
... a " crash " if you're a regular Kiwi who thinks that houses are meant to be for families & friends to live in ...
If you are a regular kiwi, who believes houses are just for living in, then why aren’t you buying? What are you waiting for?
Cheaper next month.
But the 30pc who don’t own a house aren’t interested in capital gain. They just want a roof.
The other third that live in a house with no mortgage don't care either for the same reason. Excessive debt is not a majority voting block in the population .
They are interested in capital LOSS however. Which is what is playing out for those that own homes.
That would be a 14.1% fall in the median since the peak? Hard to polish that particular turd.........
Yes and as we all know the superior HPI measure is close to 20% down in Auckland.
Not that bad really, just corrects the 30% rise in the previous 18 months. Very few properties sold 2nd half of last year at the FOMO levels, probably less than 1% of NZs housing stock.
Spin theory #1
- From the last time sales were this low (2008), house prices increased XXX%!! Be quick, could happen again!
This will be a big surprise to some on here, and downturn has only just started, me and many others have been warning of the carnage this downturn will bring. So called experts and their followers are now looking like complete tools but are so brainwashed will probably still come out with nonsense trying to fool young couples to buy and put life saving plus a 30 year mortgage into a overpriced housing market which is crashing very quickly.
... so , this time isn't different ... our house prices can't defy the gravity of affordability forever ...
Who'd have thunk it ... price to income ratios really do matter ... wow ...
Auckland TM listings back under 12k
Whats your background.. either a tradie or psycho-analyst.
I think either way, you are a downramping fhb hoping to afford a first home. All the best
As a FHB hopeful, I literally can't borrow enough to buy at these prices + mortgage rates, and I have over 20% deposit from 10+ years of saving. Some FHBs can buy in this market knowing the risks (good on them), but I think the market has further to fall if it wants to literally be feasible for most FHBs.
You might say it was good that you didn't convert a loan offer to a mortgage last year. But despite lower prices it is actually harder to buy now. Even so, there are plenty of fhb who do have the funds and are making the move to pick up a lil beauty.
I would be defaulting this year if I listened to my friendly REA and borrowed to the max last year. Just my personal situation, and I’m grateful to be debt-free at the moment.
Good for you. Suspect there are more than a few people who were cursing CCCFA last October and are now grateful it stopped them grabbing that peak price at low(er) mortgage rates.
My gut feeling is price falls might slow over summer in Auckland - perhaps falls of 3-5% between October to March/April. Then another 3-5% of falls through autumn / winter before prices flatten and start rising slightly by end of 2023 (especially if National win the election). As I have said before I think the OCR will start being cut back a little (not drastically) around mid 2023.
The big elephant in the room is unemployment. While I think it will rise to at least 5%, I don’t think that will be enough to meaningfully affect house prices.
Another elephant is the Ukraine war and how that evolves.
Half of me thinks you could be right there HM. And the other half thinks there is another twist to all of this yet.
There are big structural changes happening in the economy at present with boomers retiring, economies that have been flooded with money, governments of 'powerful nations' with exceptionally high debt/gdp ratios, geopolitical instability, a USD acting like a wrecking ball....
Who knows what may happen. We have certainly created the conditions that would tick the boxes required for currency crisis around the world for many nations as well as sovereign debt issues. What we saw in the UK could just be the tip of the iceberg. Many nations may be forced to pivot from fighting inflation to avoid default. But that isn't a good idea either! Its a sign that the central banks are waving the white flag...and getting back to 2% inflation in the next 5 years might just be nothing more than a dream.
Could be wrong, have been wrong....but I'm just not 100% convinced that central banks will be able to achieve their demand destruction they want to get inflation under control without causing currency crisis, sovereign debt crisis, and/or possible depression. The alternative is persistently high/uncontrolled inflation. And that in itself isn't good. And in terms of asset prices, even if they stay flat, could see real prices continue to get chopped down by 5-10% for years ahead until inflation does get back down to sustainable levels. Or central banks do what they need to destroy demand, then we could see nominal prices fall another 20-30% from here as the economy takes a hammering for the next 12-18 months.
It looks like it comes back down to that Daniel Kahneman experiment with the baind-aid - and whether it is best to experience a painful event fast or slow...the slow option is to stop fighting inflation...the fast option is to keep raising rates. Trying to get the balance between these two I don't think central banks have the ability to achieve.
... hidden away in the shadowy chardonnay halls of power the government absolutely loves inflation ... in hushed whispers ... as it deflates their debts away ... and pushes wage earners ever higher up the tax bracket bands ...
The Labour Government hooked in $ 107 Billion of taxes in the last year ... hmmm ... that's alot for Robbo to splash around ... top up your glass , old chap ?
Your comments are always intelligent and insightful, IO.
Indeed, when I wrote my comment - and other comments recently - I remained far from convinced in what I wrote. That may surprise some, because I usually present self-confident, even slightly arrogant, viewpoints.
I agree that there's a real possibility that inflation will be quite persistent, and that central banks will keep hiking and hiking to get it below 3%. Employment so far is surprisingly resilient. If unemployment does not rise to more than 4.5% by autumn 2023, and inflation is say still above 3.5-4%, I think the RBNZ has every right to keep hiking, to perhaps 4.75% as ANZ predict.
However, I would maintain that this will ultimately have a nasty economic impact, even if it is lagging. But maybe the impact on unemployment will be less than I think?
Something I've been thinking about recently is that despite its downsides, one of the benefits of large scale immigration is the ability to mitigate the impacts of unemployment on kiwis. It's like an 'on/off switch'. If the economy tanks, then all those people on visas simply go home.
I don't have data to hand, but as an example there must, based on my observations of a number of projects, be a significant number of foreign workers with visas (not PR) working in construction. Given this, if there is a construction slump then unemployment may not actually rise that much - because a large proportion of the workers laid off simply leave the country.
The same would be the case in other sectors such as tourism and hospitality.
If this theory plays out, then it might support the RBNZ hiking for longer, and higher - as their other key mandate, employment, remains fairly solid.
If so, all bets are off in terms of house price falls. We might go to 30-35%. And unemployment will remain manageable, although quite bad in a few discrete professions / industries ie. design professions, RE agents.
It's certainly strange and unpredictable times. There's no way I would ever of thought that house price falls of 30% could be possible without unemployment going above 7-8%..
One of the strangest things of the last 10 years is that bad news has been good for asset prices. The reverse may now be true, where good news is bad for asset prices because it means no further rate drops and no further QE from CB's. e.g. unemployment remains low (good news) meaning rates can continue to rise to bring down inflation and with that asset prices (as cash flows get discounted with a higher cost of capital).
In a healthy economy, good news is good for asset prices and bad news is bad for asset prices. So by no means do I think we are out of the woods. When we get to a point where good news is good for asset prices, then I know were in a recovery.
I still think were either facing in the near term:
a) bad news that is good for asset prices (because we've reverted to QE i.e. the economy is running on unsustainable life support)
b) good news that is bad for asset prices (because the economy remains over-stimulated with excess demand relative to productive capacity).
It might take 10 years (I'm thinking 2030 onwards) that good news once more becomes good for asset prices (which appreciate at or just above the inflation rate - as opposed to what I can only call the insanity of recent history where assets have appreciated a long way above inflation, or deeply negative relative to inflation). When we get back to where prices rise near or just above inflation, then we've found economic stability - not economic instability that to me has represented the GFC - present environment.
But I don't see economic stability in the near term - far too many people (and governments and central banks) are still living in the la la land that QE has created across many economies.
And if you are right, that's falls of significantly more if you include inflation, it would be real falls of 10-15% on top of whats already happened.
DTRH is THE worst spruiker I have ever heard. That was terrible.
Rob Would you advise a family member to buy now as rates and inflation are climbing and price’s are crashing, if so you are one of the brainwashed. Facts are price’s are going down 10k to 20k per month not a smart move to buy now this downturn might be a doozy if you do buy now this time next year you will be in negative equity.🧠🚿 1
The bottom of the market will be signaled when banks start lending at an LVR' of 95% or more.
At the moment they are signaling we are not there yet.
Hamiltons plan change 12 was interesting I thought. Were you following that one or some different ones Dale.
Section 77N of The RMA enabling housing supply act required councils to apply policys 3 and 5 to non resi land as well. Interesting?
No, like most people I don't have time to measure individual locations or run through the labyrinth they have deliberately created to exclude people based on time but about the RMA section you quote, that is just a policy wank and as such, they are irrelevant, as a first measure if they don't measure up, on first universal principles.
Also, the real measure is the outcome eg if the policy says that prices should get more affordable, then if they don't, that is a failure. It's not that hard.
The policy responses are a reaction, not a solution.
I'm with you actually - I decided years ago that residential property is way too overpriced and risky for me and went long on popcorn for watching the big fish tear each other to pieces. They are welcome to it!
stack up some cash and buy next year.
... no ... wait yuan more year ... buy in 2024 ...
Seasonal spring sales are not happening.
Its not only RE agents who are affected, decorators to tradesmen too. No opulent parties this year end, save for those cashed up, smart, old money.
Have you not heard of young (new) property investors up to max debt.
Change in mix could help explain the lower MoM median price. Greater proportion under one million
The average should be more sensitive to composition change than the median, but as I said above the proportion under 1 million is hard to interpret.
Both average and median will be pretty noisy month-to-month with only a few hundred data points - REINZ data in a week or two will be more robust.
Average is UP though mfd
I think you might say that when the indicators are giving mixed signals, that means a change of trend is in process
> I think you might say that when the indicators are giving mixed signals, that means a change of trend is in process
Sounds like wishful thinking to me.
It got a reaction from your good self Rt. If I was in the market to buy right now, I certainly would not be complacent
Do you want to get reactions, or be right?
Yes, it's curious. Could easily be influenced by a few high value sales going through - if you have 499 x $1 million sales a single $10 million sale pushes the average up by about $18k while the median doesn't budge.
Like I said, this data is noisy and I much prefer the HPI (which is still noisy, but less so).
Time for agents and agencies to FOOP themselves over lack of income I guess.
"There was a significant shift in the price bracket where sales were made in September," she said.
"In September, 46% of our sales in the month were properties priced at under $1 million.
"For most months of the year sales in the under $1 million price category have ranged between the low 30s to 40% of total sales."
No there wasn't. In August it was also 46%. Unrounded the shift was only 0.5% into the under $1m grouping. That's not a significant shift to explain a rapidly falling Sept median.
Median price is down ... but wait theres more. The average price is up !
Spinning!
There's some strange data here:
"Median dropping to $1,064,000 in September down by $47,000 compared to August's median of $1,111,000" that's a huge 4,2% drop in a month.
Then:
"September's median was also $36,000 lower than the September median last year" which is a small 3.3% in 12 months
The year-on-year captures the end of the sharp rise which has just been overwhelmed by the recent sharp fall - it's only just rolled over to negative and doesn't tell you much about the current direction of travel. The graphs tell the story better.
November will be the hardest spin session for the Barfoots leadership team... I hope that they are already furiously whiteboarding positive spin ideas!
A median price of ~$950k vs. the peak at $1,240k will be more than -20% YoY decline. It will be a similar story in December.
How do people guess that they will change their measurement point? Only -3% vs. the previous month, or only -5% vs. 2YA, or perhaps really stretch it out to 3YA and then it is +3% (on a nominal basis)?
Stop writing a frigging story... your name handle says a lot about you, not the property market
What is more worrying is the decline on a yearly basis. According to their own report 12 months sales were 6.1 billion less than the compared 12 months period. Meaning 6.1 billion sales less real estate fees, mortgage brokers fees and sso on..........and labour keep on clasiming the economy is in a good shape. Yeah ..right!!!
Great measures of economic success!
Grant Robertson today re the better than expected national accounts:
"Now is not the time to fritter it away with tax cuts for the wealthiest New Zealanders and property investors."
.. nor will he " fritter it away " with tax cuts for the lowest wage earners ...
Robbo got $ 107 Billion in taxes from us in the past year ... wow ... that's a mega mountain of taxes ... ooops , my bad ... not taxes , levies !!!
Time flies. The Good Ol' Days, when on contract in Aussie I paid " $11,346.25 plus 60 cents for each $1 over $35,000"
...down by $47,000 compared to August...
Finally we're starting to see some chunky monthly adjustments, aren't we? A couple of years of this and we'll sort the property bubble right out.
Our son has finally managed to get on to the very bottom rung of the ladder in Miramar. 50/50 with a friend. Paid $785k. Was listed 5 months ago for $1.12m. Very run down requiring lots of TLC. No worries as he and his friend can do the work required, So big discount circa 30%.
There is a clothes store in the UK that used to offer 70% discount. They would list clothes for a short period of time at massively overinflated prices and then market them down 70%. Kathmandu do something similar. The clothes were never worth the original advertised price, the discount was a marketing ploy. Only suckers paid the full price. Similarities with NZ housing.
Far out. <400k for two young up and comers who are going to roll up their sleeves. In a decent location too.
They’re young enough to work their way out of trouble if it goes bad and if it goes well good for them. Either way they’ll learn valuable lessons.
Let’s not forget the population and dwelling increase in Auckland over the last 14 years. Means that being at 2008 levels of sales volume in Auckland is likely far worse than the nominal 2008 figures
27 percent population increase since then which makes it the worst result this century.
Good point.
Wow, another 50 points on OCR.. We must Trust The Process!
We’re doomed Captain Mainwaring
Don't Panic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR0lOtdvqyg&t=36s
They don’t like it up um
I received an extraordinary amount of notifications from TradeMe today, some were price drops, and most were tender/deadline changed to price by negotiation.
One house on my list sold this week after being on market since last year
Yeah. Be quick - buy today.
Takes a long time for people to accept that their golden goose was just a sitting duck.
OCR still going up and it wont stop til we stop spending and that means asset prices will fall. Ukraine war will drag out for years, europe only starting its winter of discontent (gas prices), china economy is getting hammered, usa - china - taiwan has a long way to play out. Markets are increasingly pricing in a recession.
Smart money is out of the NZD and def out of property. Poss into productive land, definitely into innovative tech for the new world.
What is the location you got the newsfeed for?
Orr and Ardern have/are killing the golden goose.
Your golden egg aka largest asset/ " part of your retirement fund" has lost 15% and likely to lose 30% when the world recession kicks in next year ( watch Italy, england,...) Which Means over 63 yo's and recent buyers are fu#ked etc etc...
Inflation is self regulating and DOES NOT NEED any intervention. All the RB is doing is paying is paying Stalinda from what they robbed front Grant Robertson.. who in turn is thieving from you!
Negative equity, and mortgagee sales will hurt kiwis more than. $6 latte or a $7 big Mac!!!!!!!!!
Be warned ☠️☠️
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.