The much anticipated great New Zealand brain drain may end up being nothing more than an urban myth.
Or perhaps just wishful thinking by those with a political barrow to push.
The latest migration data from Statistics NZ shows no mass exodus of New Zealanders from these shores.
In May just 2538 New Zealand citizens left on a long-term basis. That's down slightly from the 2661 who left long-term in May last year, and down 24% from the 3333 that left long-term in May 2019 before the disruptions caused by the Covid pandemic.
While it's true that the number of New Zealand citizens leaving long-term has increased over three consecutive months from March to May this year, the same trend was also evident last year, and then it dropped away again in June.
We will have to wait and see if the same thing happens this year. But so far, a lemming-like migration of New Zealanders seeking greener pastures overseas appears to be little more than speculation.
It would not be the first time a much anticipated change in migration patterns has failed to appear.
After the country went into its first Covid lockdown in 2020, property spruiking outfits were trumpeting a predicted surge in New Zealanders returning to this country which would prop up the property market in the absence of arriving migrants.
That didn't happen either.
In May this year just 1784 New Zealand citizens arrived back long-term, down 41% from the 3025 that arrived long-term in May last year, and down 22% from the 2274 arriving long -term in May 2019.
That means in May this year there was a net loss of 753 New Zealand citizens to other countries, still below the net loss of 1059 that occurred pre-pandemic in May 2019.
At the same time long-term arrivals and departures by non-NZ citizens were almost evenly balanced in May, with 3120 arrivals and 3194 departures, giving a net loss of 74 non-NZ citizens for the month.
That compares with a net loss of 1409 non-NZ citizens in May 2021, and a net gain of 3897 in May 2019.
So it appears to be all quiet on the migration front so far, in spite of borders opening up and according to some reports, a million New Zealanders considering moving overseas.
A companion article to this one, which explains how Statistics NZ compiles its migration data, is available here.
The interactive charts below show the long-term migration trends.
The comment stream on this story is now closed.
Net long term migration
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93 Comments
People down the road from us are moving to Oz, have sold the sports car but the house has been on the market for 2.5 months...might be a while before they show up in the stats.
My work place advertised for two analyst roles. We had no local applicants, only few from overseas - two from NZ.
The drain is starting!
Seek has nearly 3000 analyst vacancies most paying about what we were paid last century as a BA. Being an incredibly boring job I'm not surprised no one wants to do it.
Seeing a lot of jobs being advertised for what I suspect is what they initially advertised them for when the position was last filled.
That doesn't work anymore. The world has changed.
What kind of analyst?
Yes I would question the stats too. Plenty of well skilled, 25-35 year olds leaving for the UK and older ones being targeted by Ozzie firms. We have really missed our chance to entice people over here, could’ve been a game changer for our economy and healthcare system if the govt had been smart and listened to industry- instead didn’t do a thing other than sat-back being smug
All we need is a trickle out of the huge pool of interested applicants from places like India and China to resolve some of our immediate needs.
The bigger challenge for us however is quality and we often rely on luck in this space. This will be more so going forward as our unis continue their slide down international rankings into oblivion.
Agree about quality. The ones I’m seeing in my industry that are leaving are 3-7 years post grad with good local knowledge and technically sound, add value to clients, and just hitting their straps- you can’t replace this from overseas very easily and I know of at least 40 either gone or leaving- that’s a big gap to fill.
If they're leaving for the UK I doubt they're economic migrants. The British economy is not fairing well, cost of living going up at some of the highest rates in the OECD, and wages stagnating.
Australia on the other hand does seem to offer a higher standard of living. Cant really fault young kiwis for the move.
Disagree. All the skilled ones I know that have gone to the UK have been snapped up. Agree about Oz
I live in London and am definitely an economic migrant. I earn more than I ever have and have offers of the same money all the time. I occasionally see positions paying even more. I am a bog standard kind of IT Engineer. It is at least double what I can earn in NZ, even after being punished on the new contractors tax regime. In fact I want to move back to NZ but employers seem to be still offering the same money as I was on when I was there in 2016.
Yes - UK is a two tier society.
Plenty of people with no IT/Finance/consulting skills who earn very little - but then there is the city/high-tech industry and related businesses where salaries are stratospheric and highly-paid work for skilled hard workers is a plenty. And the businesses are scouring the planet to find talent.
In NZ we havent put any effort into attracting the right types of businesses. Hence we cant attract the right people or pay the right wages to keep people... we have housing and dairy and a few retail banks. And very expensive living costs given the lower salaries.
Sadly, successive governments have been chock full of folk who talk the talk on rewarding productivity but turn around and speculate on assets while heavily taxing productive work. They missed the opportunity to make NZ a place that rewards hard work because they were so focused on enriching themselves via speculation.
I mean if someone down the road is going overseas it must be true and their stats clearly are fake.
I was just pointing out 1 of many reasons why people haven't been able to leave the instant borders opened... lots of comments below have valid reasons why their stats are bs.
Just because the brain drain hasn't happened overnight doesn't mean it won't over time. The beat up is the expectation that it has to happen immediately or it won't happen. Who now is pushing a barrow.....
Greg : remember Rachel Hunter in the Pantene Shampoo ad : " it won't happen overnight , but it will happen " .... the brain drain will happen ...
... oh , my bad ... you've not been using Pantene lately .... sorry !
NZ needs brain? The sectors that need brain have been declining into oblivion.
Factually incorrect. Just look at the statistics about IT in NZ, for example. Yes we could do so much better and we do have an unbalanced economy too focused on parasitic housing speculation, but saying that the sectors that need brain have been declining into oblivion is simply untrue.
In May just 2538 New Zealand citizens left on a long-term basis“
How do they claim this? I flew out and don’t recall doing a departure card
They scrapped departure cards a couple of years ago. They were useful, albeit not perfect
You are correct. I flew to Australia some weeks back and provided no information as to how long I would be away.
Now that I have returned, immigration will have documentation of that. But if I were still to return, there would still be no record of my intentions.
I remain very cautious about all immigration data.
KeithW
Hi Keith, we should always exercise a degree of caution about data. But if you look at the second chart below the article, which shows the net monthly gain or loss from migration as reported by Stats NZ, you'll notice how quickly the previously high numbers dropped away after March 2020 and what has happened to them since. To me that suggests that their numbers respond fairly quickly to changes in migration patterns and we can have a reasonable level of confidence them. But nothing is ever perfect.
Hi Greg, thank you for the article. A few points, as only the press release and headline figures support the contentions in your article. Under the surface the immigration data shows a very strong net emigration impulse, and has done for several months already. This is largely hidden by quirks of the model, and by press releases focusing on initial estimates for the most recent month, usually with no mention of revisions to prior months figures.
The 12/16 month model isn't working well with the post-Covid border settings. Significant net emigration is currently hidden in the month by month data revisions, eg in todays May 2022 data release prior estimates (for the prior 15 months) have been reduced by a net 2237, rather than being visible in the headline new month initial estimates. There have been similar amendments every month for the last several months. This can be measured by examining monthly totals and comparing month by month, and is probably available somewhere on the Stats NZ web page, possibly needing queried in their public database infoshare. Also can be tracked with a local spreadsheet, and a cut and paste of estimates each month.
Another way of reaching the same conclusion about current net emigration is reading through the details of the 12/16 month model they use, and then examining https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/International-migration/Intern… Any reader curious could open this file, direct from the statistics NZ webpage.
By way of example highlight row 110. This refers to estimated migration for the year ending April 2021, with an initial estimate of inwards migration of 6327 for that 12 month period. By the time of the final estimate the estimate has fallen through zero to outwards migration of 2776, ie change of minus 9103 in this estimate as sequential data comes in. Try highlight other rows, and watch the estimates fall away with each monthly revision as further data comes in. Have a good read through the Stats NZ website about how the 12/16 month model works and keep this in mind if puzzling over these figures.
It has already fallen from an initial estimate of -3915 for 2021 to a current estimate of -11,844 for 2021. I'm confident that by the time the 2021 data is accurately estimated by early 2023 it will show a net emigration significantly greater than the current estimate, which is already of net emigration of nearly 12,000 for the year 2021. It's too early to say much about full year 2022, but the data from month to month suggests the current patterns haven't changed so far, and for at least the first six months of 2022 we've continued substantial net emigration.
Also, currently the graph in this artice (as loading on my web browser at least) contains figures to end of April 2022, and doesn't contain the updated May figures which the article refers to which could create confusion for readers comparing the article and graph.
Solid work sir
Can someone explain to me where Stats Dept gets their data from given there are no departure cards.
I don't think it is possible for Stats dept to know the proportion of people leaving in the last few months that are short term or long term. All they can do is wait to see how many of the departees fail to return.
KeithW
Wouldn’t customs know if you have a return ticket?
I bet the IRD know.
Keith, around three years ago they stopped using departure cards and moved to a predictive statistical model. The statistical model is based on historic flows of people, and is used to predict how many of the people entering and exiting the country each month are immigrants, based on the real-life immigration outcomes of the data set of millions of entrances and exits from New Zealand in the years they analysed to create the model. The model was carefully back tested and thought to be accurate, and in pre-covid days was probably fairly accurate. The data set for the model is entirely pre-covid and from an open-border time.
As an example, the estimate they published today which this article is based on is a statistically derived estimate of how many of Mays arrivals will spend 12 of the next 16 months in New Zealand, and how many of todays departures will spend 12 of the next 16 months outside New Zealand. Of course it won't be exactly right, and every month for the next 16 months the May 2022 estimate will be revised. It won't be until late 2023 that we have a strong idea what the actual immigration for the month of May 2022 was. I suggest there is very strong evidence (easy to see if you spend a little time in the spreadsheet they publish) that monthly revisions have been almost exclusively negative for the last 18 months, and that Covid (and Covid related border regulation) has broken the statistical validity of the model. I doubt the model will be trustworthy for another six months, and that presumes that border relaxation continues as currently planned.
Statistics NZ provides a good amount of information here https://www.stats.govt.nz/about-us/what-we-do/current-projects/migratio…
Statistics NZ publish a spreadsheet containing the month by month initial estimates and revisions, this months version here https://www.stats.govt.nz/about-us/what-we-do/current-projects/migratio…
Suggest you brew a strong pot of coffee and put aside a solid half day if you want to get your head around the model and the data.
Thanks Vivid
Your first paragraph tells me the information I need to know.
It is a model based on pre-covid travel and immigration patterns.
That means the model is totally useless in the current environment.
It is a classic GIGO model (garbage in, garbage out).
In these situations where behaviours have changed, then unfortunately back-testing has no value,
I have been working with statistical models of one type and another for more than 40 years, and the first thing I also do is a sniff test; i.e do the model results seem feasible. Regardless of outcome of that sniff test, before relying on the answers, I dig into the assumptions of the model. In this case, the assumptions of the model are clearly grossly invalid. It is total nonsense to think that an immigration model based on historical pre-covid behaviour patterns is of any validity. Statistics should be embarrassed to even be publishing such data as it is totally misleading. And in this article, it has led Greg to a flawed headline statement.
In a generic context, this can be summarised as models based on historical behaviours rely on those behaviours remaining unchanged.
The correct assessment in this specific case, given the absence of departure data, is that we really have no idea as to Kiwi long-term migrant departures apart from anecdotal information.
Vivid, thank you very much for your contribution here!
KeithW
Gee Keith tell it like it is. Lol good one. Just got a statistics nz thingy to complete online. You know...a have to do for the farm. It starts out by saying I really need a proper computer. Good grief, if I cant do it by phone I just wont. I dont have a 'computer'.
Anyway wasnt the census of a couple of years back utter rubbish too?
Thanks Vivid. Your post and others like it, i.e., by someone who knows their stuff, such as Keith Woodward, is why I still read Interest.co in spite of all the ideologically driven drivel and the editor's dislike of those whose views he does not like - to the point of kicking them of the site. Mind you, this is probably going to get me thrown out as well, in spite of donating $100 to the "survival fund" last year. Pity, as it is not easy in today's NZ to find a forum that is not politicised or an extension of the "fountain of truth" or its ideological counterparts.
May huh. Well yes it's possible the predicted "brain drain" isn't happening - but on the other hand, it could be too early to make any conclusions.
I'd suggest that it can take a few months for people to get organised to move countries - researching where to move, selling one's house and car, applying for visas and jobs, organising shipping, tying up loose ends, etc. Plus travel has been a total pain until just recently, with all the extra documentation, insurance, C-19 testing etc often needed, and under-staffing and delays at airports. Australia has only just fully opened its borders for everyone including the unvaccinated, so that may be a factor for a minority too.
So it could be that many who are planning to leave for good (like myself) aren't making the move until later this year or early next year.
Lots of things need to happen before a big move. Lots of young FHB and kiwis may want to make the move and putting their homes on the market but in 2-3 months time, their homes may be down $100-200k with the rapid rate hikes and be forced into negative equity. Governor Orr needs to act quickly and aggressively to stem the 'inflation' [and stop the NZ tax base from leaving now]. This will only just change most people's 'plans' into a 'dream'.
People always want stuff like wanting to become a billionaire, it doesn't mean it'll happen.
Does someone understand these statistics well, I thought due to lack of departure cards there is now a predictive model and a lot of people departing would be classified as 'uncertain' until they breach the 12/16month rule around where they have resided if they don't return.
So are these real numbers/modelled numbers?
Wondering how robust their model is at predicting behaviour even in the face of all of the economic and social upheaval of the past few years.
... I'm wondering if some folks can't fill out the departure cards correctly ... so , more of a drain , less of a brain ?
There are no departure cards. From memory they disappeared about three years ago - it was well before COVID.
KeithW
... thanks for the update , Keith ... I last flew international in 2018 ... Covid scuppered our 2020 trip ... hooray for Singapore Airlines , got our money back easy peasy ...
Yes and as I have posted elsewhere today, there needs to be a more nuanced understanding of these things in articles on this website.
Rather than just reporting obvious headline data that may not reveal the true picture.
It makes for good clickbait and comments.
Don't want to get gazumped by Stuff New Zealand lost 11,000 people in a year, Stats NZ says | Stuff.co.nz
True HM,with our borders and many others being closed amongst a myriad of other reasons that travel has been difficult,the figures for the next year or so are going to be difficult to analyse and compare to previous figures,so like you say,don't jump to obvious conclusions when numbers are put out there.
There is concern within our tech sector that an increasing number of local workers are being employed by overseas companies to remote in from NZ.
Although this offshoring is also brain drain to our economy, at least the taxes and spending stays within the community.
There's advantages to working for overseas companies...
- Generally better remuneration.
- Opportunity to work on much larger systems.
- Working from home or wherever with flexible hours.
- No time wasted with "Te Ao Maori" in the workplace.
- Free work trips overseas.
What's not to like?
A friend works thus. He keeps getting pay rises each week as the RBNZ lets the NZ currency fall, as he's paid in US dollars.
I have been batting away recruiter calls from the UK/US/Aus trying to do this too. I might take them up on the offers soon though.
Funny, i work here for a software company based out of nz. My boss is based in Aust.
Was recently looking at a local opportunity where i ticked all the boxes with my experience and they didn't even bother replying. Still being advertised though.
Im not desperate to move on, but for the right opportunity ill consider it. But the ball really is in the Industry's court. I'm happy to be contacted by anyone with an opportunity and suitably open on LinkedIn for this purpose.
The local tech sector seems to be pretty useless at basic HR. For all the talk of staff shortages, they dont seem to do a very good job of making themselves attractive to people already here or actually putting in work to reach out to people.
Maybe its just a lobbying gimmick to get the government to fold on bringing in the cheap labour... Who knows.
I agree. NZ companies can't seem to shake off their obsession with outdated cost control practices. Very likely the mediocre managers making hiring decisions today were once hired for being the cheapest options in the market.
NZ Customs figures for May and June combined. 13,000 more departures than arrivals
.. if you annualise those figures , it's a hefty total ... clearly a " brain drain " ...
If it was all about brains you can get them by the bucket load at the local freezing works, but an ounce of common sense.....?
Actually, if you have any common sense you are on the plane as well.
4 years & 5 months , counting down ... not just people with brains & commonsense ... me too ...
A drain yes,but there is no measure of the 'brain' part...as Muldoon once said,emigation from NZ to OZ raised the average IQ of both countries...
The figures you refer to are gross arrivals and departures which include tourists coming and going, people travelling on business trips or to visit friends and family etc and NZers taking holidays. These people are not migrants. The Stats NZ figures are people arriving or departing long term, which generally means for more than a year. There's a big difference. You can't use the gross arrival and departure figures as a basis for migration trends.
But Greg,
How does the Stats Dept estimate long term departures given that departees (short or,long term) are not asked to state their intentions?
KeithW
Those inherent errors should net out if you look at the figures over a reasonable length of time.
But I think the portion for tourists and people travel for visiting family and friends in this gross figure is fairly small if you compare this with pre covid data. The reason is that applications for new visitor visas are still suspended until 31st July, which means the short term travellers in this figure were mainly from Australia.
The vast majority of those example travelers would be in and out within the month. Or at least return the next month. January to April there were 25000 more departures than arrivals.
So 38000 more departures than arrivals for the year to June.
If every month 6000 more people depart than arrive, that is a loss of people. It's not 1000 people coming and going 6 times fudging the numbers.
The accumulated losses of people since Covid to May 2022 is 114,287 according to Customs data. These are people that have left the country and are "yet to return". Sure, a good number are likely remnants of Tourists, Students or people going on holiday. Whether they return will dictate how many dwellings remain vacant.
NZ Customs figures for May and June combined. 13,000 more departures than arrivals
That makes sense. You can leave NZ and travel to many places with no risk of Covid isolation. Only a dummy would holiday to a place where you are required to test for Covid, and isolate if positive. Covid is rampant everywhere, time to move on.
I like NZ for some strange reasons and I like living here, but let's be honest, if you have lived somewhere in Europe, Australia or parts of the USA (or many other places), you know that this country doesn't give you much: it's boring, rainy, super-expensive, isolated and in many ways is has the facilities of a third world country (public transport, social welfare, health system...) It's interesting how some of my friends think that the reason why the property market is so high it's because of how desirable this country is. Once many people leave this country and know what some other places have to offer, they rarely come back.
The whole western world is fairly homogeneous now, with two steps to Starbucks or McDonalds. Everyone sipping on their favourite coffee and talking about what they are watching on Netflix. If I moved it would be for better weather. In saying that, I thought the last summer in Auckland was very nice.
Statistics NZ only reveals the past migration patterns up until May 22. There is no forecasting in this data.
To rely on this data to conclude; “the much anticipated great New Zealand brain drain may end up being nothing more than an urban myth” is in my opinion poor journalism & only encourages the government to do nothing.
Without this data there is little to support your theory that there may not be a “brain drain” from NZ
So far the surveys regarding future migration plans point to a significant brain drain from NZ to Australia & elsewhere. These surveys provide a much better picture of what to expect in the next year. eg link below
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/07/cost-of-living-myob-poll-s…
Agree - the StatsNZ data is backward looking. That survey paints are far more grim picture..
You mean a survey of just 500 people by an Australian accounting firm that got extrapolated out to a million people, and was taken as gospel by the media, with no scrutiny of methodology?
Did we have any brains to begin with, for instance look who's been voted to run the country...
Exactly. look around you. What do you see? The education system hasn't challenged the brain systems of its clients for more than 4 decades now.
P Beck & P Jackson may disagree somewhat
753 is still a noticeable Net Loss - it won't happen overnight. Also surely it's the industry and experience of the Net Loss that's key (i.e. a net loss of 753 doctors/nurses would be a major concern).
Also I suspect as more airline routes open up in July/August and Winter settles in their will be a significant outflow over the next three months (augmented by less people returning in Winter).
Partner and I are off to London after NZ Summer. We would have left sooner but needed to get a few things sorted. I suspect many our age are in a similar boat. Pretty much all of our extended friend group are either leaving soon or planning to leave in the next 6 months. We had been looking to buy a house since the beginning of the year. But hopefully we will return to a deflated housing market and a much heftier deposit. Here's hoping
Interesting, because its the opposite of what I'm experiencing.
Cant replace grads leaving for UK / AUS. Plus about 30% of my friends from School and locally either just left or are just about to leave as well.
Maybe this just isn't captured in the data yet. As can take a while before someone they count as having left long term no?
There are strong employment opportunities in both countries for graduates right now. I'd expect numbers to pick up if there was a larger disparity to develop. Also commodities have paused to breath (in fact coal, not iron ore, is Australia's most valuable export right now.)
It’s looking like we not only built an economy around borrowing money to buy each other’s houses….. we built an economy around borrowing people from overseas.
not the most resilient in hindsight
I see the EMA and Business NZ is cranking up the advocacy around staff shortages and the need to bring back immigration. At what point do staff start to push back and say where is the training, the career pathways and commitment to local staff.
And what's the point of working for a company if you can’t buy a house…..the whole thing is a bloody mess.
At what point do member companies start to ask what has been going on with these organisations to allow this….?
I read the other day that sealord can’t get staff and will be short a few hundred this season for hoki….and at the end of the article it said they could invest in automation but it would cost $100m and they don’t want to spend the bucks. And there’s your problem….we are just sweating old assets. It’s not really enticing to a new generation of workers who could be more productive.
and then the ceo of ANZ comes out and parrots the same rubbish and says in the long run we will need to invest in productivity….but it will take time and money…..but hey let’s just get some immigrants quickly and we can go back to bidding up our houses off each other and put off the investment side.
i know everyone here bags the government but from my experience the business organisations have been corrupted by the banks, corrupted by the National party and have been taking the easy options….they have been ripping their members off and now the chickens are coming home to roost.
Look at the Chamber as well….what would Simon Bridges know about business ffs? He’s never worked in one, started one or owned one. And now he’s the CEO?
Kiwis are too naive. Time to start asking some hard questions of where we are heading with all of this.
Outstanding comment gnx.
What I would like to know is how is that big jovial german dude still here?
If you are like me with all your grandparents born here Australia is the only easy place to go. With the UK and mainland Europe you need to go through the whole work permit process and you are stuck with one company.
I wonder how many permanent residents, rather than citizens, are emigrating to Aus???
None because they need a visa.
I know few of them.
A visa for Australia is easy, if you got the right skills (speak english, some work experience, no criminal records, good health)
I personally prefer NZ, but no, PR are not limited people, at all. They (we) were ready to move once and they can do it again, they have much less chains in NZ than the average kiwi.
There will be loss as we have 3 years of OE young ones pent up and ready to go - one of mine+partner has gone plus a heap of there friends. High probability they will come back in 2 to 5 years time. Nothing new in that.
The decline in working age populations is driving a lot of change as well - there just isn't enough skilled people to go around. This is a bigger problem than the traditional OE. Its very obvious when you look around the world and everyone has the same problem and is counting on immigrants.
This is a fundamental change in the way labour markets work - more old people needing more young people to look after them/take over their jobs but less young ones available. We are going from a pyramid population demographic to a skyscaper - some top heavy. A new phenomena and could/is completely changing the cost and availability of labour.
Starting to see a few industries realise this but many are in denial.
I lead a team of 6. Most of them are aged mid twenties to mid thirties. 1 is heading to Africa then the UK this month and another going to the UK next month. These aren’t vacations - they’re both planning on being gone for 1-2 years.
The stats might not show it yet but I’m definitely seeing a pent up desire to go abroad being released, even if it’s not permanent move.
based on a massive assumption that many of those leaving indicated they were leaving on a long term basis -- how many have simply gone to Aussie to work for a "bit" and whose departure is not recorded as a long term one ?
In healthcare -- we are losing lots of staff to Aussie -- wear no work visa or any other long term documentation is required -- people just get a flight and off they go!
Argue the numbers -- which are not real anyway -- they are estimations and models -- based on what ? data from the last two years ? sure that is relevant - and behaviour post covid globally is certainly different to pre covid -- so all these models are either completely based on rubbish data -- or guesses!
The truth is found in -- trying to book a Dr's appointment, the 50,000 people waiting for an operation, the crops left in teh ground or on the vine, adn all the other areas whose workforce seems to have evaporated in the last few months -
Anyway, who can have any faith in Stats NZ figures; they couldn't even get their census done properly the last time they tried!
Ironic that people are leaving NZ for Australia due to higher wages over there and National aren’t saying anything about how to improve wages over here
They already tried that sales pitch, keeping up with Australia or something like that.
That soon descended into Bill English claiming low wages gave us a competitive advantage.
A work colleague was telling me the other day that his friend works for a company in Australia that is hiring graduates in our field for 110k starting.
Today I spent some time glossing over the WINZ Advocacy page.
Was surprised to find a number of posts from people working <25 hours a week for <$25 per hour who, in addition to there income tested benefits, were earning $1300 a week.
Repackaged, that's a 3 day work week earning the equivalent of some mug on $32.50 per hour over a 40 hour work week.
Really put into perspective how much I earn for the hours I work.
Greg - this data isn't reliable since they got rid of departure cards. It is based on an educated guess about whether people leaving will stay abroad of come back. And that guess is heavily based on the pre-covid period where 95% of departures ended up coming back (because they were just going on holiday). It only becomes reliable after about 4 months (so Jan 2022 data), as the model can see who has come back and who is still abroad.
You can see this effect as the past numbers get significantly revised each time they publish the data.
Your response aligns with Vivid.
Both of you would appear to understand the model.
It is now apparent that the Stats Dept numbers are totally misleading because they come from a model that relies on historical pre-COVID behaviours which define the equations in the model.
KeithW
Agree with you on that.
The 12-16 month rule. So won't have final outcome for 17 months.
What I find mind boggling is the number of nurses who're unable to return to work because of nonsensical government policy. Are we not in the middle of a hospital staffing crisis? How long before those nurses and doctors leave the country for good?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/129197272/plea-by-unvaccinated-nurses-…
NZ Nurses Society has said they dont want a bar of them .
Neither do I
Why? The empirical evidence is crystal clear now that the mrna vaccines don't stop, or even slow transmission. I understand the governments position though. Any backtracking by Labour will be seen as a tacit acknowledgement that their opposition was actually correct. By opposition I sadly don’t mean National, I mean organisations like Voices for Freedom, NZDSOS, signatories of the Great Barrington Declaration etc.
The government is sanctimonious, spiteful, and ideologically driven. Why would the NZ nurses society and private individuals behave in the same way?
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