Barfoot & Thompson's June sales at 12 year low, average price down by $120,000 from December peak

I'd be surprised if prices bottom out before interest rates top out. 

I'm often surprised though so of course it's possible your right, but I certainly wouldn't be borrowing money on that basis. 

Come on don’t twist things TTP! Even Peter acknowledged that is likely to be a ‘statistical blip’.

It is quite likely the composition of sales are generally shifting towards higher value homes, that will shift the median higher.

The HPI is the only stat that’s really worth watching.

Let us know when you buy TTP and stop being a poor victimised renter....Or are you still struggling to put together the deposit?

(or is pretending to be a poor renter just make believe to try and deceive people - like Tim Morduant the property broker that likes to deceive people and failed to comply with s27 and s30 of the Commerce Act?)

Hey TTP - do you know who else say’s it’s a good time to buy? - Opes Partners. 

Guess what they do - they make money from property commissions.

I started getting all these Opes Partners ads in my instagram feed

And I’m thinking, who is the economist of theirs that is talking (really fast, always a warning) and making no sense 

I’m thinking, what sort of economist is he, where did he work beforehand, did he work in a bank for Tony or somewhere like Corelogic etc?

So I googled him

This is what he did before he hosted NZ’s No.1 business & property podcast 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/83985944/auckland-man-using-face…

Turns out, he’s never worked as an economist, his linkedin profile says he’s worked in theatre and marketing

I think it kind of sums up nicely the NZ property market - vested amateurs and charlatans who are full of hot air and bravado to blow up the biggest bubble in the world.

My prediction is the market will capitulate next year when the sheeple wake up and realise the numbers don’t work with 6%+ interest rates as a new normal with record levels of debt to service.

You must have heard the rumour that Cindy wants to crash the market and nationalise the big banks? 

Maybe she will actually get her wish - it’s a stretch but let’s wait and see.

Interesting that the median price has risen a bit in the last month.

Granny Herald saw it and news of the measure is trending at the top of its page with the words 'No one saw this coming' in the headline.

Robbo and Cindy might make a comment related to it showing 'reslience' of the economy.

Anyone who understands statistics might not pay it too much attention if depending on the composition of the data and its relative position to the mean and the range.     

ha ha ha TTP --   even you know this is simply   cheap rubbish in Ranui and Manuwera not selling any more -- and higher quality properties still just about getting over the line -   this particular "correction"  has a lot of mileage left in it -- even more with the numbers of listings growing expoentially each month 

A sign that now might be a good time to buy…… 

 

I could never really work out if your posts were from a pro property commentator or a troll who just loves to wind people up……your latest post has cleared that up for me, so thanks TTP.

Yeah but we cheated, copied off them. Shows how smart we are. 

Note that a huge amount of Auckland population already own Bitcoin too!

What's your point?

It's a great investment idea until the day it's not. 

Houses are for living in, not speculating on. 

And if they suddenly found that they didn't, would they be able to buy it again?

But most of them would not earn enough to buy the house they own at today’s prices, price’s will continue to fall until average wage couples can afford to purchase, at the moment house price’s reducing around 20k a mouth in Auckland so no rush just wait.

"a good house"?

We use low grade pine framing, dubiously attached to subpar foundations, and sparsely filled with low-level insulation and minimal double glazing.

I believe the term "Wooden Tents" is probably the best representation of a Kiwi House I have heard. Our houses would be great in a warm/dry climate. But are decidedly sub-par in the Temperate (read; cold, wet, windy, and salty) climate that is most of NZ.

No one in the herald sees anything coming. They were paid to write what they're told. Stuff is even worse.

The calmness may be based on a belief in always getting bailed out. I.e. that monetary or government policy will come to the rescue again.

Which it might, obviously, though whether it can protect against the fallout of what it's already done to date is another matter.

Haha

But what could the demand side interventions be?

- CCCFA is being changed but unlikely to have much impact

- OCR won’t be stabilised or lowered, yet

So what could they be? 50 year mortgages, possible but unlikely?

Turning on the immigration tap?

"everyone" being asset owners....

Cant do that while inflation is running HOT

Can always count on Reserve Bank and government welfarism if it looks like thought times are hitting too, surely.

Have seen the odd post over the last month with:

"Hi guyyyss, looking to buy my first rental property, lol, never done this before, any advice pls thx".  

It was the straw that broke the camels back IMO

you could equally argue that the punters all piled into the market in the months leading up to the change

It's going to be massive when the economic system collapses. This isn't it.

And in fairness, the same rhetoric was put forth in Ireland before its bubble burst.

But supply and demand isn’t just whether there are houses and people who want the houses. It’s whether people can afford the houses and whether people are willing to sell the houses. There are hundreds of thousands of people that would like to buy a house but can’t afford it due to interest rates. That just means if they’re smart they’ll save up and have a bigger deposit and be on a better salary in two years when interest rates come down. 

I think GingerNinja confirmed it was him via another online forum, i.e. they spoke directly/in person or something?  

Yes and his posts often have 3-4 upticks almost immediately...so its possibly he's running 3-4 accounts...either that or all of his other supporters (who aren't actually also him) just happen to be logged in at the same time as him...all of the time...

'from individualism to collectivism,' you mean from democracy to socialism?

The most affordable housing is in those jurisdictions that have the greatest degree of individualism'.

Almost all the damage to NZ housing unaffordable has happened post-1990, which coincides with more collectivism.

Jimbo, the government’s changes will enable at least three storey terrace housing across around 80% of residential land in Auckland.

If the government oppose the retention of any special character, as the council is proposing, and are successful then that will see at least 90-95% of Auckland’s residential land rezoned for three storey terrace housing, as a minimum (6 storeys within walking distance of train stations etc).

even with retention of special character there is a HUGE uplift in density and development potential. That’s why, although I think the council should reduce the proportion of special character sites (rather than circa 75% maybe circa 40-50%) retained, they could still keep many of them, in my opinion.

the thing is, the land values in the central suburbs will preclude any housing remotely approaching affordable.