Barfoot and Thompson had their lowest level of sales for the month of June in 12 years last month, while the total number of homes the agency had available for sale was at its highest level in 11 years.
The real estate agency, which is the biggest by a substantial margin in the Auckland market, sold 684 residential properties in June, down 45% compared to June last year.
That was the lowest number of residential properties the agency has sold in the month of June since 2010.
At the same time, Barfoots had 4676 residential properties available for sale at the end of June, which was up 63% compared to June 2021.
That means the agency's total stock for sale is at its highest levels since 2011.
The rise in stock came even though new listings in June were down 11% compared to May, and down 15% compared to June last year. They were at their lowest level for the month of June since 2019.
The trend on prices wasn't quite so clear cut.
Barfoot's average selling price has declined for three consecutive months. June's average price of $1,158,464 was $120,183, or 9.4%, lower than its December 2021 peak of $1,278,647.
However the median selling price lifted slightly in June to $1,147,500 from $1,125,000 in May.
That increase came after two consecutive declines in April and May, but June's median price remains down by $92,500 (-7.5%) from its November 2021 peak of $1,240,000.
Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said no one saw the modest increase in the June median price coming and it was likely to be a statistical blip.
"It does signal that house prices are not in full retreat and are moving back gradually as vendors recognise that if they want to sell, they need to have some flexibility as to price expectations," he said.
"Sales of properties for the month were the lowest they have been in a June [month] since 2010, when the market was recovering from what economists termed a technical recession.
"Rather than accept the prices on on offer, some homeowners are removing their homes form the market," he said.
The comment stream on this story is now closed.
Barfoot Auckland
Select chart tabs
- You can have articles like this delivered directly to your inbox via our free Property Newsletter. We send it out 3-5 times a week with all of our property-related news, including auction results, interest rate movements and market commentary and analysis. To start receiving them, register here (it's free) and when approved you can select any of our free email newsletters.
132 Comments
Counted in the 20%plus increase in Housing stock since 2010?
Probably not. So it is far worse than 2010,if you consider percentage sold,of total stock.
Interesting that the median price has risen a bit in the last month.
A sign that now might be a good time to buy…… Market corrections are healthy but they don’t last forever.
Ideal to be buying when there’s choice - but neither will that last forever.
TTP
I'd be surprised if prices bottom out before interest rates top out.
I'm often surprised though so of course it's possible your right, but I certainly wouldn't be borrowing money on that basis.
Come on don’t twist things TTP! Even Peter acknowledged that is likely to be a ‘statistical blip’.
It is quite likely the composition of sales are generally shifting towards higher value homes, that will shift the median higher.
The HPI is the only stat that’s really worth watching.
Let us know when you buy TTP and stop being a poor victimised renter....Or are you still struggling to put together the deposit?
(or is pretending to be a poor renter just make believe to try and deceive people - like Tim Morduant the property broker that likes to deceive people and failed to comply with s27 and s30 of the Commerce Act?)
IO ..... TBH I would say that TTP is not a renter at all .....he is just trying to gather support from FHB's etc to think he is "on their side" and to buy that overpriced 3 bdm ex state house in Palmy .....this is exactly how RE estate agents get a bad name ....while if you and I were to repeatedly come on this site and tell the same lie over and over again, good 'ol TTP would be the first one to point it out.
Disclaimer: TTP may well be a renter due to circumstances unknown, but will not doubt, after many years, have at least some property holdings.
Yes TTP suddenly became a 'poor victimised renter' a while back...odd play....as you say just another desperate way to try and garner the trust of prospective buyers. Pretty desperate move though.
Its certainly a case of misleading and deceptive behaviour....reminds me of that company directors who was anonymously spruiking his company's share price on sharetrader a few years ago....not sure if it was the FMA or Commerce Commission that got him in the end.
And if this guy is Tim Morduant...who is already in trouble with the Commerce Commission for dodgy trading practises...you think he'd want to keep a pretty clean play book.
CH... TTP is one of the biggest landlords in Palmy - I confirmed it with a palmy agent who knows him.
He also said he’s trying to sell some of his properties, which we already know - but apparently the penthouse has a dodgy body corporate so won’t sell at any price.
Karma is a beautiful thing.
DDDDebt ......and that is exactly why everything TTP says I reverse it 180 degrees !
So really in a way, he is just doing us a service, as to what is happening on the coal face :) thanks TTP .....and we are all looking forward to that "soft landing" ;)
Yes if we get to the point where the property spruikers start saying now is a good time to sell...then you know its a good time to buy as secretly that is what they are doing in the background.
Bit like P8 telling FHB's to buy last year, while his family were simultaneously offloading their rental porfolios as he thought the market had peaked.
A Nassim Taleb quote comes to mind:
https://quotefancy.com/media/wallpaper/3840x2160/6411629-Nassim-Nichola…
He's more likely 'renting' off the Family Trust or some other dodgy arrangement.
His property will be in a tax avoidance trust set-up, so technically not his.
Hey TTP - do you know who else say’s it’s a good time to buy? - Opes Partners.
Guess what they do - they make money from property commissions.
I started getting all these Opes Partners ads in my instagram feed
And I’m thinking, who is the economist of theirs that is talking (really fast, always a warning) and making no sense
I’m thinking, what sort of economist is he, where did he work beforehand, did he work in a bank for Tony or somewhere like Corelogic etc?
So I googled him
This is what he did before he hosted NZ’s No.1 business & property podcast
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/83985944/auckland-man-using-face…
Turns out, he’s never worked as an economist, his linkedin profile says he’s worked in theatre and marketing
I think it kind of sums up nicely the NZ property market - vested amateurs and charlatans who are full of hot air and bravado to blow up the biggest bubble in the world.
My prediction is the market will capitulate next year when the sheeple wake up and realise the numbers don’t work with 6%+ interest rates as a new normal with record levels of debt to service.
You must have heard the rumour that Cindy wants to crash the market and nationalise the big banks?
Maybe she will actually get her wish - it’s a stretch but let’s wait and see.
Interesting that the median price has risen a bit in the last month.
Granny Herald saw it and news of the measure is trending at the top of its page with the words 'No one saw this coming' in the headline.
Robbo and Cindy might make a comment related to it showing 'reslience' of the economy.
Anyone who understands statistics might not pay it too much attention if depending on the composition of the data and its relative position to the mean and the range.
With the average down but the median up slightly might be indicative of a rise in sales of ‘mid value’ properties, ie. composition starting to dominate around the 900k to $1.2 million mark.
There has been tumble weeds blowing through the auction rooms of Manukau area auctions. So you may well be right.
ha ha ha TTP -- even you know this is simply cheap rubbish in Ranui and Manuwera not selling any more -- and higher quality properties still just about getting over the line - this particular "correction" has a lot of mileage left in it -- even more with the numbers of listings growing expoentially each month
A sign that now might be a good time to buy……
I could never really work out if your posts were from a pro property commentator or a troll who just loves to wind people up……your latest post has cleared that up for me, so thanks TTP.
Depends on where our HPI is heading I guess, averages/medians don't tell the full story. E.g. Dublin:
- Jan 1 2007 Index = 133.2
- Jan 1 2008 Index = 121.2
- = 9% in 1 year
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-prices-defy-cost-o…
We'll show Ireland 🍀 how it's done. We're winning🏡😁
Yeah but we cheated, copied off them. Shows how smart we are.
Interesting to compare with median charted here;
https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-house-price-growth
Volume speaks louder than any blimp in value. We showed Ireland whose boss on the rugby field last weekend. Now it's time to show them whose boss on house price collapses.
TimeToPuke.
House price’s will continue to tank the speed of the fall will accelerate over next few months as higher rates and inflation kick in, plus the fact a huge amount of Auckland population would not earn enough to buy a good house in Auckland.
Hi DTRH,
With all due respect, a huge amount of Auckland’s population already own a good house. 😁
Just wish I was among them and not a “poor victimised renter” - as Independent_Observer so impolitely labels me, above. 🤨
TTP
Note that a huge amount of Auckland population already own Bitcoin too!
What's your point?
It's a great investment idea until the day it's not.
Houses are for living in, not speculating on.
That may be a lofty ideal, they do allow property speculation in NZ..... some of us have done well out of it.
Fair point but try telling that to those in negative equity...
……. Or those unfortunate souls who had their money in term deposits. 😰
TTP
Have 😊
Was looking at TD rates just before. They are starting to look pretty good! I sold stocks and have been sitting on cash since Feb which as been great. Still not convinced there is value in stocks or property and both could easily fall/meander for a long time so TDs might be it!
Yeah I might look at a TD for six months, from say September. I want to have cash by April / May 2023 as that’s when I think I might look to buy shares again.
Note that a huge amount of Auckland population already own Bitcoin too!
I don't believe you. NZ doesn't even have a high volume or proper exchange. Any evidence?
Hi J.C.
Nothing that Crash Crusader (aka Retired-Poppy) says can be relied upon……
Everything he spouts is wrong.👺
TTP
And if they suddenly found that they didn't, would they be able to buy it again?
But most of them would not earn enough to buy the house they own at today’s prices, price’s will continue to fall until average wage couples can afford to purchase, at the moment house price’s reducing around 20k a mouth in Auckland so no rush just wait.
"a good house"?
We use low grade pine framing, dubiously attached to subpar foundations, and sparsely filled with low-level insulation and minimal double glazing.
I believe the term "Wooden Tents" is probably the best representation of a Kiwi House I have heard. Our houses would be great in a warm/dry climate. But are decidedly sub-par in the Temperate (read; cold, wet, windy, and salty) climate that is most of NZ.
I guess you have never worked on a Devonport villa then ? The modern building code is lightyears away from what you were able to throw up and call a house. There are still dodgy houses unfortunately but if you know what your looking at there are some great builds.
I agree, Noncents, and we Aucklanders know that’s a primary reason why old houses in superb locations like Ponsonby, Freemans Bay etc sell for big prices.
Location/position comes first - but being solidly built in the first place typically runs a close second.
That’s certainly what the well-healed in Wellington and Auckland are after.
Houses built over the last 30 years won’t be renovated in another 50 years. They’ll be detonated/demolished because, sadly, most of them were rubbish to begin with. 💩
TTP
The thing is that a wooden house probably costs more to build than a block house like the have in the UK. But a block house doesn’t do so well in an earthquake unfortunately.
I agree, but we can still build better houses.
Don't forget everyone leaving the country..
Average down, sales down, but median up? Just means the bottom is dropping away and an increasing percentage of sales is people moving sideways in the higher value section.
Prices were pushed up from the bottom, they'll collapse from there too.
This is normally the case, the inner city suburbs have a lot more owners living in them, they don't seem to trade much when the market is so uncertain.
exactly, FHBs no where to be seen.
Yes, but according to the Herald/One roof, 'No one saw that coming.'
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/auckland-house-prices-median-house-…
No one in the herald sees anything coming. They were paid to write what they're told. Stuff is even worse.
If the bottom was dropping away the average would be up too. its hard to know what this means.
The calm before the storm.
"Bull Trap"
We are seeing a record speed of price drop for Auckland, it's hardly calm?
The calmness may be based on a belief in always getting bailed out. I.e. that monetary or government policy will come to the rescue again.
Which it might, obviously, though whether it can protect against the fallout of what it's already done to date is another matter.
High supply low demand only leads to one outcome…
Intervention...
Haha
But what could the demand side interventions be?
- CCCFA is being changed but unlikely to have much impact
- OCR won’t be stabilised or lowered, yet
So what could they be? 50 year mortgages, possible but unlikely?
Turning on the immigration tap?
How about letting the speculative debt holder catch fire, and ensure the banks take on losses due from their poor risk handling of the last ten years?
Hahahahhahahah oh man, banks take on losses... That's a good one!
Now if you'll excuse me I'll be in the corner crying.
Relaxing LVRs. Convincing banks to ditch their DTIs (I believe some are applying them?). Undo the tax changes and relax brightlines. Allow foreign buyers again.
Plenty of dumb ways the government and/or RBNZ could pour fuel onto a dumpster fire if they decide a high cost of living is desirable.
Never underestimate the desire of some to live it up beyond their means and pass the bill to the following generations, indeed!
Fast tracking visa application, shortages of hospital staff and nurses, carers….you name it.
The tap will be fully turned on at some stage. They are currently in the “debating stage” but they already know what they’re going to do.
Just start up the money printers again House Mouse and everyone wins right?
"everyone" being asset owners....
Cant do that while inflation is running HOT
Its running hot for now....but give another 6 months of wealth destruction then there could be blood on the streets and a sharp pivot to deflation.
What interests me is how much asset price destruction happens before the central banks say 'oh great there deflation again, lets print more money....yipee we're saved!'
Agreed. Our OCR will be at the mercy of the Fed. If they pump rates up, then we have no choice to follow otherwise today's price of fuel and imported goods could look downright cheap. Wouldn't that be a shock...
Our next OCR announcement is in 9 days. Will it be another .5 increase...?
NZD around .62 lost 14% of value this year if rates don’t raise watch as NZD tanks even further. Inflation is already eating away at NZD Jacinda is the only one who can afford to go on holiday abroad.
No, not the only one. Bob Jones is in Scotland.
I wonder if increasing the OCR will actually have that much affect? It’s kind of like saying “hey we are in the shit so I’ll give you an extra 0.5% return, please come invest in us”.
Seems to be the way things go, though, doesn't it. Countries performing less well seem to have to put their OCR up higher.
the markets expect another 0.5 because that has what has been signaled, anything less than that will cause an immediate devaluation of the NZD
I think you mean they shouldn't do it while inflation is running hot, nothing really prevents it.
Much higher stock levels, but no buyers. Welcome back to the GFC.
Would be an epic time to own a RE franchise with well below normal sales revenue to support fixed overhead. Mind you, surely one would have conservatively banked and saved all their mega profit in the last five years to provision for the eventual rainy day. To have doubled down on more rentals in an effort to avoid paying tax, you would have had to be blinded by greed especially while crazy low interest rates made that strategy ineffective.
If the over leveraged burn down in the next 12-18 months, you did it to yourself. Time To Panic.
You should jump on the FB property investor page....why pay down debt when you can just buy even more properties with you equity in previous properties! Can't lose with property as prices never fall in NZ.
Can always count on Reserve Bank and government welfarism if it looks like thought times are hitting too, surely.
Have seen the odd post over the last month with:
"Hi guyyyss, looking to buy my first rental property, lol, never done this before, any advice pls thx".
There will usually be at least one grammatical shocker ‘Hi their guyyyss…’
I assume they all give the obvious advice: wait until the fan has been hit.
Might be more of "I have a place I can sell you" soon.
Cute, well ventilated, retro styling, low maintenance.
Amazing how the drop from 1 December coincides exactly with the introduction of the CCCFA changes implemented that same day. Who would have thought that the imposition of $200k penalty on employees and officers of the financial services sector for "getting it wrong", would have had such a profound effect.
The fact that its exactly to the day shows that its purely coincidence. Takes months for a change like this to flow through. Especially when December sold data is mainly October negotiated contracts.
A mix of the market & along with sh** B&T sales reps... It's funny how they shift all the blame on vendors.
I'm probably gonna have to keep coming on here every month to say this.
Sales are down - because interest rates are higher.
There is still a shortage of houses so prices aren't going to collapse.
Prices will fall in some areas, simply because interest rates now mean there aren't as many people able to buy a property. Some people are going to sell for below what their property could get six months ago because they're moving to Australia or downsizing - they probably already made hundreds of thousands on their property and just want to get out. But in high demand areas prices will keep going up or at least stay pretty close to what they are now.
Give it another 18-24 months when interest rates start coming down and we'll see an uptick in sales.
This narrative reminds me of the US in 2008. It was the one held by those who had loaded up with rental properties/debt just prior to the bust but were living in denial of what was unfolding around them because they couldn't afford for it to be true - if it were true and continued, it meant they were bankrupt.
Turns out it was the denial phase of an asset bubble imploding.
I could be wrong....have been in the past....but then again, when you seen something once, and other people never before, you have a very different perception of what might be unfolding.
It's going to be massive when the economic system collapses. This isn't it.
And in fairness, the same rhetoric was put forth in Ireland before its bubble burst.
Yep the DGM's are jumping the gun a bit. If I was them I would hold up until Christmas to see what actually happens. Unless the OCR keeps rising significantly the crash is never going to happen. Mortgage rates need to move another 2% before the shit really hits the fan. Perhaps focus on the next July 13th call it's make or break time.
Shortage of buyers. If there was a shortage of houses then B&T would have sold more houses. When there is a true shortage of something its price usually rises. Auckland population is flat to falling. Over 1000 dwellings per month being added to supply. 947 brand new town houses and apartments for sale in Auckland area on Trademe as of today. Many with headlines communicating some vendor desperation.
But supply and demand isn’t just whether there are houses and people who want the houses. It’s whether people can afford the houses and whether people are willing to sell the houses. There are hundreds of thousands of people that would like to buy a house but can’t afford it due to interest rates. That just means if they’re smart they’ll save up and have a bigger deposit and be on a better salary in two years when interest rates come down.
Well for B&T there are more sellers than any time since 2011 and less buyers than any time since 2010. But sure the buyers just need to save harder. Sure their incomes are not keeping up with raging inflation. If you went back to 2006 and asked a real estate agent to predict how many houses they would sell in 2022 if interest rates were 5%. They would have probably said S loads. But if you then told them that the potential buyers incomes had not risen relative to inflation in those 16 years and the 3 bed Hardieplank box they just sold for 300k would be 1 million in 2022. Their opinion on sales numbers may have changed. Interest rates are not too high. House prices are.
What about rentals? There's no shortage of rentals either it seems. I guess you'll say there's thousands of people in emergency housing who would like a private rental, but can't afford it due to rents. I guess if they're smart they can be on a better salary in two years time?
The Wellington region saw a 45% annual increase in available rental properties to a record high in May, while Auckland and Marlborough also saw record high numbers listed for rent.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/renting/129126744/available-re…
Depends also whether supply and demand has always related to accommodation, or whether it's been for something else. Like a government and Reserve Bank backed, largely tax-free "sure thing" of a speculative investment. There could well have been some disconnect between demand for accommodation and demand for an easy investment return.
As was seen in Ireland too, demand for rentals can also evaporate quickly if people decide there are better places to go, during a downturn.
There's always been people wanting to buy houses (demand) but because they can't then your "theoretical demand" isn't going to have any effect. In this current environment, "saving up" is becoming increasingly difficult as inflation outpaces wage inflation, coupled with the ability to access credit becoming harder as well.
As supply increases and demand drops then the outcome is pretty standard.
I'm pretty certain TTP is Ashley Church haha
He used to sign off as Tim and from Palmerston North....so possible he's Tim Morduant...the head of property brokers...
I think GingerNinja confirmed it was him via another online forum, i.e. they spoke directly/in person or something?
He also seemed to openly acknowledge it on here when he was outed, for a while at least. Before then backtracking later.
Yes I find it oddly disturbing that someone with that amount of influence over an industry would be on here acting in the manner he has been...isn't he in charge of around 700 people at property brokers?
And here he is on interest.co.nz trolling people using multiple personalities in what would appear to be attempts to spruik his industry/product for personal financial gain.
It gives me chills thinking about how perverse and unprofessional the behaviour is if true. Imagine the CEO of any other organisation of a similar size doing the same...
He also got busted using multiple accounts by signing off as the wrong one, after boosting his alter egos post. Funny, but sad.
Yes and his posts often have 3-4 upticks almost immediately...so its possibly he's running 3-4 accounts...either that or all of his other supporters (who aren't actually also him) just happen to be logged in at the same time as him...all of the time...
Can't be a Mr A Church - he just wouldn't have the time to be on here - too busy "creating" and organising his next press release to "calm the sheeple" !
[removed as posted in wrong thread]
So though the volume is down but the median selling price is UP.
Has the market bottomed out for now.
What is playing out in front of us is something I have explained before.
Due to the nature of Govt. land and housing policies, our supply and demand cycles have become counter-cyclical, with a greater oscillation between peak and trough.
Any market has a cyclic nature of supply and demand.
But in stable markets, the cyclic nature is smoothed by having the right policies in place which also allows the supply and demand cycles to lie almost on top of each other, ie are cyclically in sync and not counter-cyclical.
This is not only important when demand increases to prevent a lack of supply and house price increases, but is just as important when demand falls as it enables developers to just as quickly reduce demand and NOT FLOOD the market with excess supply and cause a glut of properties and the resulting collapse in price.
Irrespective of what you personally gain out of one direction or the other, none of what is happening, under our present system, both on the way up and now down, should not be a surprise. We are getting exactly what we have planned/voted for.
There is no point reactively bitching about DGM or Speculators defined as people with no morals, or landlord slumdogs vs renters as people who aren't smart enough to get on the wagon etc.
I think we would all be better off as individuals and as a country if housing was first about providing warm, dry, healthy, and affordable housing, with Govt. providing the right minimal policies to enable the private sector to do what happens in other jurisdictions, where housing is all of the above and the pricing is very stable over time, irrespective of the economic winds around them.
If we want something different then the rules/politicians/political parties have to change.
Until we have a massive change in western culture/values from individualism and move towards collectivism, then nothing will change (as was the case when the greatest generation shaped the western world post WW2).
The 4th Turning/Strauss Howe theory proposes this will happen when the boomer cohort start dying off/having less influence on society...so later this decade we might start seeing a shift towards doing what is right for society/community and not the 'self' as the millennial generation take over the reigns of society from boomers (note this is not a boomer bash attempt...simply a demographic theory that so far is playing out how the authors (mostly..) suggest).
'from individualism to collectivism,' you mean from democracy to socialism?
The most affordable housing is in those jurisdictions that have the greatest degree of individualism'.
Almost all the damage to NZ housing unaffordable has happened post-1990, which coincides with more collectivism.
Almost all the damage to NZ housing unaffordable has happened post-1990, which coincides with more collectivism.
What on earth...?
This claim seems so at odds with reality of NZ before and after the 1980s.
Historically prior to 1993 almost all housing in NZ was 3x median multiple.
I'd imagine that Rick would be referring to the claim that we've had increased collectivism post 1990.
Or if not, I certainly would disagree. Society across the western world has become increasingly about the individual and not the collective the last 20-30 years.
100%.
I think Dale's heart is in the right place his policy analysis is just completely wrong.
Same thing, the world has increasingly gone more tribal, collectivizing into more binary groups (less individual), rather than universal individualism. And of course closer to home politically we have now Ardern years and the rise of the state in people's lives.
What changed in 1993?
A number of things from there on, which it isn't clear what combination or permutation is more dominant, namely RMA and MMP.
Big call, but I do appreciate a man with a theory
I kind of agree but not in the Houston sprawl way. I think we can achieve much lower land prices per section just by making all sections allow higher density. The unitary plan did this in Auckland but mainly to a small amount of land zoned THAB, and that land was very sought after by developers and became expensive. If the entire city allowed that density, all of a sudden the number of possible houses becomes a lot more. The governments new changes are a start, not sure if it allows terraced housing though?
Jimbo, the government’s changes will enable at least three storey terrace housing across around 80% of residential land in Auckland.
If the government oppose the retention of any special character, as the council is proposing, and are successful then that will see at least 90-95% of Auckland’s residential land rezoned for three storey terrace housing, as a minimum (6 storeys within walking distance of train stations etc).
even with retention of special character there is a HUGE uplift in density and development potential. That’s why, although I think the council should reduce the proportion of special character sites (rather than circa 75% maybe circa 40-50%) retained, they could still keep many of them, in my opinion.
the thing is, the land values in the central suburbs will preclude any housing remotely approaching affordable.
It doesn’t matter what type of supply is added, the result will be cheaper houses. Of course the best place to add density is where the best amenities are which also happens to be the place that the council are trying to preserve in time forever like some kind of shrine to 1920.
I guess that reflects different values that we hold. I think much of our built heritage is worth protecting, especially where it’s architectural values are higher. I don’t think there is a right or wrong on this, it’s a value based judgement.
I agree, generally speaking, it’s the special character dominated areas which are the best places for density, spatially. But even if the special character was not touched (which I am not advocating for btw), there’s still an awful lot of opportunity for big uplifts in density and development rights on the Auckland isthmus including near many train stations.
As I said, it's more nuanced than that, in I'm not advocating 'NO' restrictions, and you guys are not advocating heaps of restrictions.
With fewer right restrictions, it is possible to have both high and low density, including keeping heritage areas, and for housing to be way more affordable.
What they do in less/low right restriction jurisdictions is first put aside all areas that should be protected, so things like wetlands, elite soils, future transit corridors, etc, including heritage areas, and then allow everything else potential to be developed at market demand. This still leaves potentially infinite supply (in our lifetime) but what they have found is if approx. 30,000 sections worth of land is available to develop at any one time, which enables supply to always meet demand.
This is different than what NZ councils allow for ie 30,000 sections over the next x number of years, because when you ask them how many of those 30,000 are available today to be brought to market over the next year, then it is only a very small % and not enough to meet demand. Some of the reasons they are not ready are because Council does not have the ability to provide infrastructure (ie they have the monopoly but not the capability, sort of like Winstomes with Gib) and/or some of the lands they say are available, the owners don't want to sell or develop yet.
When it comes to heritage areas, like density in general, I would allow the individual subdivision owners to vote on it at the local body elections, with say a 75% majority allowing areas to stay as they are or be zoning converted. I have written a white paper on this which is too long to share here as to the methodology, And this is exactly how they do it in the like of Texas where individual communities set the rules of how much density they want all under a presumptive right to build, rather than a more Command and Control system we have where it is a presumptive right not to build and when a rule is changed it is a blanket cover over large areas where the individual and local community needs come a poor second.
Unfortunately, both you and JimboJones, while on the right track, are missing the universal principle of how it works. That is ALL pricing is set on the fringe and beyond, if you restrict the fringe potential then all pricing from that point going in is going to be more expensive.
JJ says he doesn't agree with Houston Sprawl, but the irony of this is Houston has far higher density in parts of the city than Auckland but not as low as Auckland in other parts, ie the regulatory Auckland minimum size lifestyle blocks are super low density, are not producing income-producing and are much time s larger than most owners want.
Also Houston now has the largest amount of brownfields with higher density conversion in the States due to the very fact that it was not forced-priced induced high density, to begin with, and now the density increase is more a response to social demographic wants. The result is your choice of whatever density you want at about 3 to 4x median income.
Allowing both up and out will result in the right universal mechanisms for truly affordable housing.
Houston also has a 26 lane freeway, that might appeal to Jeremy Clarkson but I would prefer the likes of a European city even if it means higher prices.
Do they manage to share the infrastructure costs fairly? For every 26 lane freeway do they build a light rail or similar for the density people? Or is it sprawl subsidised by density? I guess tolls / user charges might be a good option.
In general I agree that a free-for-all would be much better than the current planning system.
Everything is bigger in Texas and they like to play that up, so they included the feeder lanes in their calculations to make it as big as possible, but there are other cities with far bigger freeways and they are not one lane that is that wide but a conglomeration of highways that are meeting, merging at points and running parallel with each other.
Auckland has its Walter Mitty version in Spaghetti Junction.
Houston also had one of the few light rail systems that were increasing in patronage and the CBD has underground pedestrian tunnels https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houston_tunnel_system.
Headline is : Auckland house prices: Median house prices up 2 per cent for June - Barfoot & Thompson
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/auckland-house-prices-median-house-…
When you read inside :
"Despite the jump in median prices, the average price in June actually fell 2.6 per cent to $1,158,464.
"Rather than seeing the median price increase as a low water mark, it is more likely to be a statistical blip that can occur when comparing statistics on a month-by-month basis," Thompson said."
"a drowning man will clutch at a straw"
I wonder how many agents have left the industry. Note I did not call it a profession. They are overpaid thieves who until late last year sold a house in five minutes and charged the earth still. We pay surgeons who make us well or save our lives less than agents. Go figure.
Bet they are all having to work a bit harder now then in November 21, back then level 3 , inspections by appointment only, online auctions and pre auction offers, leading to early auctions and crazy prices.
In almost all professions the salespeople earn the most. And the best way to sell a lot is to be selling something people want a lot.
The supply of salesmen is restricted by the number of people prepared to sell their soul.
Yo.. what have I missed?
Been away for a long while and I noticed few changed to tunes of the old PI hardcores!
They aren’t commenting anymore
I have been off interest for a few days and came back to read some of the property items and of course the fabulous comments. It would seem that recent RBNZ releases have unleashed some pent up enthusiasm for a property market soft landing.
Auction data shows activity has bottomed out and so reads the same each week. The only worth while article for me is the monthly HPI.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.