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No sign of mass exodus of New Zealand citizens in latest migration figures

Property / news
No sign of mass exodus of New Zealand citizens in latest migration figures
13th Jun 22, 11:56am by Greg Ninness
Airport baggage claim

There was almost no impact on New Zealand's population from migration in April, with the numbers of people arriving into and departing long-term, almost equally balanced.

The latest migration figures from Statistics NZ show 4605 people of all citizenships arrived long-term in April, while 4686 departed long-term, giving a net loss of just 81 people for the month.

The figures also show there hasn't been a significant loss of NZ citizens to other countries, at least not yet.

In April, 2059 NZ citizens departed these shores long-term, while 1895 arrived back long-term, giving a net loss of 164 NZ citizens for the month.

The numbers are even more finely balanced for non-NZ citizens, with 2710 arriving long-term in April, and 2627 departing long-term, giving a net gain of just 83 for the month.

Overall, the figures suggest migration flows in both directions remained subdued in April. There was neither a rush of people coming into the country long-term, nor a rush of people leaving.

On an annual basis NZ is still losing more people through migration than it's gaining, with a net loss of 8668 in the 12 months to the end of April.

The interactive chart below shows the long-term annual migration trend, with population growth from migration peaking with a net gain of 91,680 in the 12 months to March 2020, then declining very rapidly and tipping into negative territory in March 2021.

The comment stream on this article is now closed.

Net long term migration

Select chart tabs

Source: Statistics NZ
Source: Statistics NZ

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28 Comments

by  Advisor  |  13th Jun 22, 12:43pm 1655080998

Meanwhile

Tourism and hospitality won a 12-month concession, reducing the $27 per hour minimum pay rate for essential skills visas to $25 until April next year, this will help the sector to transition to new immigration settings.

Some findings from a recent survey of hospitality workers in NZ:

  • 13 percent were receiving pay for fewer hours than actually worked
  • 18 percent were not receiving the minimum wage
  • 22 percent did not get the correct holiday pay
  • 22 percent were not getting time off or correct pay for working statutory holidays

And this survey was done while the borders were still shut and most migrants were on open work permits allowing them to switch jobs and industries easily.

The exploitation should only increase from here on!

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by  singautim  |  13th Jun 22, 1:42pm 1655084539

It echoes what Prof Stringer's report on exploitation of migrant workers said in Dec 2016.  Then it was clearly the National govt at fault with bad policy and virtually no investigation by the labour inspectorate.  Now it is the Labour party at fault - they have had six years to tackle the rorts and exploitation that are inherent to low-paid immigration.  

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by  Bluekiwi Prope…  |  13th Jun 22, 12:48pm 1655081334

Governments plans arent working then.

Arent they supposed to be making everyone leave so its good for the environment.

Save the snails and all that.

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by  KH  |  13th Jun 22, 1:29pm 1655083755

Flatlining is good.  New Zealand needs to avoid the damage from the previous population explosion.  We need a stable population regime.

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by  Advisor  |  13th Jun 22, 2:49pm 1655088592

The damage has already been done - more young Kiwis are leaving NZ quoting high living costs as the key driver.

Blame the pandemic all you want, but if it were not for easy access to cheap workers, NZ businesses (and government) would have been forced to train more locals and invest to operate in high-value sectors instead.

Instead we're living off a third-world economy but consuming goods & services like first-world population.

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by  GraemeRansom4234  |  14th Jun 22, 6:14pm 1655187298

Read the article please. 2059 left and 1895 arrived in April. Hardly a mass exit. Maybe that doesn't suit your uniformed prejudices.

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by  Neil21  |  13th Jun 22, 1:31pm 1655083910

The great competition is just starting - The competition for people - especially young people.

Very few countries are replacing their population naturally - NZ, UK Japan etc.

When WA is advertising on radio for people to move there, you know the competition is well underway. And we haven't even got to the track, let alone the starting blocks. I fear we will open the gates to immigration - and no one will come.

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by  childofthesun  |  13th Jun 22, 2:36pm 1655087809

I hope we will open the gates to immigration - and no one will come!

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by  Advisor  |  13th Jun 22, 3:14pm 1655090045

The talented won't show up but we're still a popular destination for those seeking economic refuge.

Forget better healthcare and infrastructure, the government is working hard to improve all our lives with more Uber drivers and takeaway cooks.

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by  Sam B  |  13th Jun 22, 4:55pm 1655096140

TBF, the kids of those Uber drivers and takeaway cooks will probably be our most valuable citizens in 20 years.

I live in a block of units, next door to two more large blocks of units. Most residents are Indian or Sri Lankan, whole families living in two-bedroom flats. Their kids all play outside together. They are all notably considerate, polite and friendly. I suspect the combination of modest circumstances and ambitious parents will make them exceptional.

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by  HW2  |  13th Jun 22, 2:29pm 1655087373

Wasnt there supposed to be an avalanche of people exiting the country as soon as the border opened and a yawning gap with arrivals. No it hasn't happened. Will we get an apology from those who insisted there would.

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by  childofthesun  |  13th Jun 22, 2:38pm 1655087886

Be patient!

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by  Pa1nter  |  13th Jun 22, 4:30pm 1655094648

They're just waiting for their new houses to get built.

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by  Chaosinflesh  |  13th Jun 22, 4:31pm 1655094719

Or their passports and flights...

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by  GV 27  |  13th Jun 22, 2:55pm 1655088955

What would you like them to apologise for? "Sorry, we expected the government to do better for young people"? How have you been in any way wronged to the point of it warranting some sort of apology.

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by  malamah  |  13th Jun 22, 3:25pm 1655090701

An apology is made in premise of forgiveness. If you're seeking an apology, your looking to forgive. So the inverse of words to what is said here is that you are seeking to forgive those on the internet who made a prediction which did not to come to fruition.



What a weird world we live in where people can't accurately predict the future.

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by  K.W.  |  13th Jun 22, 4:07pm 1655093265
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by  HistoryRepeats  |  14th Jun 22, 8:07am 1655150852

It can take some time to get organised and wind up one's affairs before emigrating. Plus travel is still a bit chaotic due to understaffing and ongoing restrictions. Perhaps for many Kiwis, like myself, it will be later in the year before they make their move.

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by  Kiwisaint  |  13th Jun 22, 2:41pm 1655088105

I'd wait until July onward figures when airline routes are opened up more fully and when winter hits.  Still expecting a consistent net loss overall.

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by  Fairlyfrank  |  13th Jun 22, 2:47pm 1655088450

Seems at odds with the airlines claiming lack of arrivals is making it difficult to accommodate the demand for flights out .

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by  Wrong John  |  13th Jun 22, 3:09pm 1655089745

Lies, damn lies & statistics. Add media. Stir. Result: A cloudy opaqueness.

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by  Chaosinflesh  |  13th Jun 22, 4:21pm 1655094105

Stats on flights from customs so far this year:

Jan (in)15751 (out)22544

Feb (in)16195  (out)24533

Mar (in)65864 (out)59868

Apr (in)125282 (out)141592

May (in)169038 (out)175457



YTD: (in)392130 (out) 423994

Plus, Jun (in)73782 (out)82301, or -8519



It would seem there's almost 40,000 people on overseas trips then, I guess. Approximately 100 plane loads, or 3/day more leaving than arriving during May (if the earlier ones returned)? Seems reasonable. Also, less than 1% of the population.

For the year: 43 days had positive migration, mostly in March (was that when people locked out were able to return?).

 

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by  Averageman  |  13th Jun 22, 3:54pm 1655092498

Pensioners in, young workers out. Why would you come here. Its so expensive. A bunch of the recent immigrants who are well traveled, are saying traveling around NZ is one of the most expensive experiences out there. Especially the South island.

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by  RickStrauss  |  14th Jun 22, 10:00am 1655157629

Migrate to NZ, and pay the landlord class's rent, yield and price subsidies, and pension benefits.

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by  K.W.  |  13th Jun 22, 4:15pm 1655093730

Since people's intentions are no longer collected by departure cards at the airport, all net migration figures are only guestimates based on a predictive model, and only become fact when those who have been out of the country for longer than 16 months fail to return. 

"Statistics produced using the new outcomes-based approach will have inherent uncertainty until 16 months have passed and enough time has elapsed to deterministically classify all crossings. At this point, migration estimates will change from provisional to final estimates. The provisional migration estimates have uncertainty due to the predictive modelling component of the method. Because ‘uncertain’ border crossings are assigned a probability of being a long-term movement or not, it is possible that the migration status picked from the probabilities in the aggregation and estimation step of the methodology is incorrect."

https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Methods/Update-on-the-developm…

If you look at the ACTUAL departures and arrivals, then the number shows the complete opposite - with a net loss of 16,310 people in April, 6,419 people in May, and already 9,519 people having left in the first 12 days of June.  I'm sure many of those are not planning on returning. 

https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19/more-information/passenger-arrival…

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by  Sam B  |  13th Jun 22, 4:57pm 1655096266

Very interesting - I'm looking forward to seeing the actual numbers once they're available.

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by  Nzdan  |  13th Jun 22, 6:28pm 1655101701

It's strange how the border movements numbers are a complete contrast to this article.  I mean it's one thing to count "citizens" arrivals vs departures, but it's not just citizens that occupy dwellings.  

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by  K.W.  |  13th Jun 22, 9:32pm 1655112745
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