There was a sharp drop in activity in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms in the week after Easter .
The agency marketed 101 residential properties for auction over the week from 16-22 April, compared to 181 the previous week.
However the drop in numbers should not have been a surprise. Not only was last week a short week, it was also squeezed between two long weekends and many people would have taken off the four days in between to have an extended break, potentially reducing the pool of available bidders at auction.
So its likely many vendors either brought forward their auctions to before Easter, or postponed them until after Anzac weekend.
Barfoots have more than 120 residential properties scheduled for auction in the coming week, which is also a short week.
The overall sales rate also slipped last week, down to 18% from 24% the previous week.
The sales rate was particularly low for Manukau properties last week, with just one of the 21 properties offered selling under the hammer,
The table below shows the sales rates for all districts.
Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
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82 Comments
Wow, 18%.. I guess the spruikers would claim this is a stable market and nothing to see here..
The housing market is buckling under its own weight..
... even if house prices collapse 30 % , that'll still only take them back to where they were 3 or 4 years ago ... and unless my memory fails me , Hugh Pavletich of Demographia was complaining of the insane HP's in NZ back then , as a ratio of total household income ...
Still, gives a few more FHBs hope than exists now gummy.
right now, it’s very hard for even households with incomes at the high end of middle to buy. Bring prices back down 30% then they have a chance again.
Wow just 1 out of 21 sold in Manukau,where it all started and which had one of the biggest uptrend.
It is more as vendors expectation are still very high and are not ready the overcome the greed and accept the fact.
yes once the REs lose their income they will be changing their tune and saying their vendors "need to be realistic". Buyers will not be keen for 35k a year in interest I believe, and the banks wont give it to them either. There will be less mortgages over 500k now.
Not surprised, prices in manukau were even more stupid than elsewhere. $1 mil to buy a crap house in a crap neighbourhood makes no sense at all.
Dgm universal truth what goes up comes down and will eventually goes up again but that eventually will be a long wait for now.
Any idea when was the last time that Manukau had success rate of 5%.
OCR rate announcement was on 13 April.
Was it like everyone talking about higher interest rates.
Less trades people in Bunnings.
Who will give in, buyers or sellers.
Who will buy an old, do-up rental property today. Two years ago, you could flip anything.
It’s not a case of who will give in. With rapidly rising interest rates most buyers can’t afford to pay what sellers are asking. Sellers are the ones who will have to adjust to the changing conditions
It's taking a while though. In particular vendors are extremely reluctant to sell for less than what they purchased a property for.
The other thing that is taking a while to change is the attitude of agents. Many/most are still hopeful that the current market situation is but a short lived lull. Not much humility out there - a lot of these agents are used to the properties selling themselves and being able to call all the shots. Getting most agents to give you a somewhat honest and realistic price expectation is challenging.
I have a few agent mates, honestly they are so convinced the cccfa amendments in June will turn things around. I can’t be bothered with the argument, i just agree and think man how many mortgage brokers have you been listening to. Are we not going to bring up the fact that most people can’t afford $70k in interest payments a year.
What's the saying... it's difficult to convince a person of something if their livelihood depends on it... or something that effect. Too lazy today to find and reference it properly.
Seems like a good time to chime in with the next potential nail in the housing market coffin:
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/regulation-and-supervision/banks/consultations…
The difference between now and 2008 was that money was getting cheaper by the day back then but now money is getting more costly by the day, forcing some sellers to take action.
This is very true. NZ has not witnessed any serious fall till now, so is taken for granted that prices will never fall.
Even earlier market had had fallen but downtrend lasted for a very short period, so real estate agents are playing on that fear. Forgetting that this time is different as earlier to stimulate the market, interest rate were dropped but this time market is falling and interest have just started to go up and will keep going up.
B&T are the worst. Honestly, watch one of their auctions, it's hard to believe how bad they are across the board - from the auctioneer rambling out passive aggressive comments to the agents sitting around clueless. Why anyone would list with them is beyond me.
They are all the same
They're actually not, if you go to a variety of agencies open homes and auctions you'll see the difference.
They are extremely condescending.
Astute buyers are now giving them the middle finger.
Oh and how they hate it... thats where I've experienced real hostility with B&T. Try and negotiate with them...
They are about to get a lot friendlier with buyers believe me
Time To Panic
Hehe
Don’t worry, we will have a soft or flaccid (hat tip Brock) landing!
Seven months since the start of the market downturn - and the upper-end of the housing market continues to set new price records......
Must be a worry for the DGM.
In the medium/long term, property has a habit of turning up trumps. And that's the timeframe that most interests seasoned investors.
TTP
TTP first rule of building strong foundations or top will fall over, just a matter of time it will make a mess and if anyone has been silly and purchased a high end house, big losses will occur unless keeping for 15 years.
Your seasoned boomer mates will be getting their nappies changed down at Ryman by the time property makes any sense as an investment again.
Please never leave, we need one or two clowns to stay and entertain us.
Especially since CWBW left.
I think CWBW can no longer afford an internet connection
He's just in the basement with his boys....Ewww!
Did he die of covid or humiliation?
I think the boys left him handcuffed in his gimp suit and got the eff out of the dodge basement while they had the chance
Why do you gloat that houses are going up in price. So many people cannot even afford to buy a dump in the regions as they have gone up also. What makes you tick? When we are kind to our neighbour is when we feel really good about life. Being nasty to DGM!s as you call them simply amazes me.
.. are we surprised , auctions work best when the mania is in full flight ... when FOMO rages , and we're swept up in a flood of emotion ... really really must have that tulip bulb ... ooops , my bad , wrong bubble .... really really must have that draughty w/b wreck on 650 sq. meters ....
Different bubble , same end result : Pop !
18% must be last few people who don’t keep up with news.why would anyone buy at this point interest rates raising inflation sky high NDZ tumbling which will keep inflation high. People just need to wait as everything in housing market will cost less going forward.
There are always going to be people buying and selling in the same market.
I still speak with people who think houses are a one way bet. There seem to be people who believe everything they hear from the Hosk and on the Newstalk ZB property hour. Too lazy to do their own research. (I do love ZB, I just make sure that I treat most of what is said with a healthy dose of scepticism and try not to shout at the radio).
Houses are a one-way bet right now. Some people just have the direction confused.
touche'
Maybe right now but you would be pretty stupid to think that house prices will be cheaper than they are now in 10 years time.
I have a young colleague looking to buy right now. She is still convinced house prices never go down (used those exact words). Not everyone is ear to the ground seeking the most astute info.
There are 19 vendors in Manukau looking for their number......
Just shows how ‘successful’ the whole brain washing narrative has been…
Those who can think critically and independently didn’t buy it!
Yes I have noticed that with my relatives, over the last 12 years stocks and houses have only gone up, some of the young think 'investments' always go up.
Can someone advise what was the listing status last year during same period of two long weekends to compare as this is not the first time that we are two long weekend back to back.
The auction sales rate was particularly low for properties in Manukau last week
Greg, it is an understatement to say that auction sales rate was low in Manukau. Only one selling out of twenty one is DEAD. Should auction sales was dead in Maukau as sometime only 1 gets sold but is out of 5 or 8 but not out of 21.
That Parrot is Dead! No its not, its just resting !
RE's still pushing the Auction down here as the method of sale. Said it before but they are using it to supplement their income when they know full well that the chances are it will not sell at auction. Really its the people that are to blame, they are listening to the RE like they listen to their Doctor and take everything they say as fact. Yes houses in my street are still selling but not at auction, its turning into a long winded negotiation or having a price on it that is still now unrealistic in the current market. I have some 20 properties on my watchlist and only 1 has sold in about 8 weeks.
You’d be pretty pissed if your friendly agent told you auction is the best way to sell, took your money to pay for the auction, then only 1 in 21 sold at auction.
when really they have no clue about statistics, basic maths or debt cycles.
However they can buy a nice suit and know that Audi is better than Toyota when pulling up in the drive.
I suspect they'll be a few teeth whitening businesses go under in the next 24 months.
Check this out :
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/04/walls-close-in-on-new-zealand-…
It highlights that based on median Auckland price of $1190000 with 20% deposit, in March'22 mortgage repayment was $5157 per month at 5.08% and in early 2023 will be $6546 based on 7.33%.
What it does not mention is that last year it was $3912 based on 2.8%.
So compare to today will jump by 25% and if one compare to last year will be jump of more than 60%.
Maths never lies. Unlike estate agents.
How many can afford weekly repayment of $1600 or even $1000 or even 50% $800 per week.
Wait and see.
As someone made a good comment that in 2008 when market was falling had luxury of falling interest rate and today in falling housing market, interest rates are rising - deadly combination and rates are rising not by choice but being forced by fundamental.
So this housing downturn could be worse than ever before.
Yeah and isn’t it amazing how it seems that this country’s economists can’t do basic math either. If They could, they wouldn’t have been forecasting small gains or small falls in house prices late last year.
of course, they might just be trying to deceive us like the RE agents.
HouseMouse, the main bank Economists work for the biggest 4 leveraged real estate funding Banks (hedge funds) in NZ. The entire book remains on balance sheet. Can't be scaring the women and children now...... David Hisco warned of the excess in the Market
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/david-hisco-housing-and-nz-dollar-o… July 21 2016
ANZ chief executive David Hisco joins the chorus of financial establishment figures warning that too little is being done to address a dangerously overcooked Auckland housing market. i think he said Having been in banking since 1980 I have seen this movie before. The ending is pretty much the same - sometimes a little plot twist, but usually messy.
Yes and things have become substantially more crazy since Hisco made those remarks 6 years ago...2016 looks sensible compared to what we have in 2022.
Hisco was right back then.... the affordable bid is much much lower now as well due to CCC and higher rates... This does represent the chance to buy a decent bach for the family trust at a knock down price next / later this or next year if you are not leveraged. The people holding Manurewa rentals are going back to the future....
You cannot change the present by repeating the past ie buying baches and second homes. That comment by It guy probably sums up why the housing market will not fall to any extent due to market behaviours and latent demand.
Wishful, and I would suggest deluded, thinking.
2.8%? Many people fixed at closer to 2.2%
Essentially many people will be paying double for their mortgage.
How many people have a spare $2000 or $3000 a month when the cost of everything is going up?
Its insane.
“The [RBNZ’s] own research, released to the Herald under the Official Information Act, reckons as many as half (49 per cent) of the people who bought their first home last year during the market peak could face “serviceability stress” if interest rates hit 6 per cent.”
Shouldn’t they have done that research before letting them take out those loans? Being responsible for bank stability and all, and just 14 years ago being shown by the US just what could happen.
There are quite a few small commercial level Lendors out there, that have 6-10 rentals, who have never experienced a rising interest rate environment. They have no interest rate hedging in place at all, most interest only fixed 2 years about 1.5 years ago, they never hedged 30-40% of their book at 5year. now banks are asking them to lighten the debt levels, But they still want last Decembers prices. When the GFC came about, the US entered full on QE, Europe went -ve int rates, and china printed and saved NZ/Aussie. This time no one is co=ordinated and FED is having to fight inflation, Europe looking to sanction Russia, will force EU into recession, and China is locked up, already their property bubble has imploded, there tech stocks smashed due to CCP regulator...... no one will come to NZ rescue this time. The good news is that we have food and water and hydropower, the bad news is that the closing of the oil refinery means all our petrol and diesel has to come by ship from Singapore..... We live in very interesting times, certainly not a great time to be having to sell a house
Certain developers in Wgtn went under, after they insisted on 2007 prices as 2008 progressed.
not developers, leverages business people....
Its the race to 0, will B&T hit it first?
ThE mArKeT iS rEmArKaBlY rEsiLiEnT
It will not happen overnight but the prices of housing especially at the lower end of the market will drop in price slowly but surely. Absolutely everything we do and get is going up in price. And it will continue to do so. Throw increasing interest rates in the mix you then get stretched household budgets. Where I live agents say it is easier to sell a $1.5m house than a $600k home. People with higher incomes generally have more equity and a better ability to service debt. House prices in NZ are starting to fall. There will be exceptions as trophy homes attract the well heeled. As interest rates and other living costs rise there will be increasing pressure on house prices.
Inequality has been increasing since the 1980's as interest rates were pushed to zero....the wealthy are in a far better place (greater wealth concentration) with more and more of society doing it tough. No wonder houses at the bottom end of the market aren't selling...we have punished people in the bottom part of society for decades now...where are they meant to find the deposit to purchase an overpriced house when landlords have been enriching themselves by raising rents while their costs evaporate (mortgage rates) and house prices skyrocket? Perhaps we should have a wealth transfer back in the other direction now so that our society is more equal...more stable...less financially risky...where it is about community and society and not 'me' trying to 'get ahead' and turn my fellow citizen into my rent slave.
Yes the boomers have certainly shown their ability to be greedy. They often remind us how hard it for them financially. In fact they have had the best of it. I am a boomer. I would be regarded as being very wealthy if I disclosed my assets on this site. I have been lucky as I was well educated and had the ability to pay off personal debt then take on business debt. My goal is to share my luck with my children and grandchildren well before I die.
It’s not just that. Think of all the wasted capital thrown at stupid and unproductive ventures on the basis of near zero hurdle rates.
That's the other shoe that has yet to drop. The trillions invested in utterly worthless tech ventures, dotcom bubble 2.0...
You make it sound so bad, I dont think anything has changed over 60 years. Check the stats IO and see that the 1960s had a similar percentage of home ownership around two-thirds. In fact you will find that there were far fewer state house rentals then which correlates to more private rentals
That's not true at all re home ownership or stats on it.
Absolutely everything we do and get is going up in price.
Apart from property values!!!!
And supermarket beer
Fancy pants with your supermarket beer.
No such luxuries in West Auckland.
I have stopped drinking beer as they all taste terrrrible and give me headache very quickly, i can't find a decent beer here in NZ.
You either have the cheap lager watered down to death, or the extra hoppy stuff that taste like medecin(craft it is called).
Order online from a shop that stocks quality British, Belgian or German beer.
Perhaps you need to start home brewing your own best bitter? Perhaps a Kentish ale? All grain not the kits.
Sounds like a 'you' problem. There is no shortage of incredible local beers in Auckland, and most of NZ. Urbanaut, Behemoth, and Garage project are all under a 5 minute drive from me and most of them can be found in New World, and on a good day, maybe Countdown.
Can still get a good Aussie shiraz for $20, that hasn't changed in at least the last 5 years!
Below 20% means, it is not going to rebound till next summer.
What are you smoking? the rebound has to happen once the markets find price discovery and clears people who need to sell.....we have had years of upwards movements, crashes happen faster... Rebound may be 2028 i hope you thinking clearance rate rebounds not price?
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