The downturn in the residential property market is already starting to hit the real estate industry in the pocket with commission revenue well down compared to a year ago.
Interest.co.nz estimates the industry earned $457 million in gross residential sales commissions in the first quarter of 2022, down $135 million, or 23%, from the first quarter of last year.
The decline in overall commission levels was almost entirely driven by a decline in the number of residential property sales, which were down by more than 25% in the first quarter year-on-year.
Average commission levels were down only slightly from the peaks achieved in the fourth quarter of last year.
The biggest decline in total commission levels was on the West Coast of the South Island where the total estimated commission was down 40% compared to a year earlier.
However the West Coast has a very low number of sales each month compared to other parts of the country so its figures can be more volatile and should be treated with some caution.
Apart from the West Coast, the biggest declines were in Manawatu/Whanganui -37%, Auckland -31% and Waikato -24% (see the table below for the full regional results).
As the graph below shows, a clear downward trend in commission levels is now starting to emerge.
However three regions, Taranaki, Tasman and Marlborough, went against the trend and posted higher estimated commission levels in the first quarter compared to a year earlier.
At this time of year the market would usually be starting to slow as its heads towards winter, but with mortgage interest rates continuing to rise, credit availability tightening and the economic outlook generally looking uncertain, the market's winter slowdown could be more severe than usual this year, and that will inevitably flow through to agency revenues.
Belt tightening may well be the order of the day for many real estate agencies and their agents over the next few months.
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