Property data company CoreLogic says the housing market weakened further in March as market power shifts further towards buyers.
According to CoreLogic's House Price Index for March, each of the main centres recorded either a reduction in the rate of growth of average housing values, or an outright decline in average values compared to February.
The most significant declines were in Hamilton, where the average dwelling value was $891,884 in March (Feb $900,294), Rotorua $725,385 (Feb $741,098), throughout the Wellington Region $1,128,708 (Feb $1,138,210), Christchurch $757,902 (Feb $759,591), and Dunedin $698,879 (Feb $707,887).
"After such a significant upswing in values, some of the areas which saw the greatest deterioration in affordability are now also at risk of the greatest vulnerability," CoreLogic Head of Research Nick Goodall said.
"The impact of tightening credit and increasing interest rates has reduced the pool of buyers who are willing and able to pay recent prices and this has led to a reduced number of property transactions.
"Preliminary sales figures for March suggest the month should end with roughly 7000 to 7500 sales once the full population of transactions flows through.
"This would be a lift on February, which is seasonally normal, but about 10% to 20% below the long term average for March.
"As properties stay on the market for longer and expectations of weaker conditions ahead grow, buyers are finding themselves in a stronger negotiating position, with more time and leverage than at any stage in the last couple of years."
"Stories of 'bargain hunters' and 'cheeky offers' are becoming more prevalent."
"This switch of power to the buyers came sooner than most were expecting and will vary around the country," Goodall said.
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| CoreLogic House Price Index March 2022 | ||||
| Territorial authority | Average current value | 12 month change % | 3 month change % | |
| Far North | $698,321 | 26.1% | 5.7% | |
| Whangarei | $839,480 | 24.7% | 3.5% | |
| Kaipara | $877,714 | 26.1% | 1.8% | |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,420,588 | 27.7% | 7.1% | |
| Rodney - Hibiscus Coast | $1,320,398 | 21.4% | 4.1% | |
| Rodney - North | $1,508,791 | 32.7% | 9.5% | |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,676,550 | 21.0% | 5.2% | |
| North Shore - Coastal | $1,908,991 | 20.2% | 3.9% | |
| North Shore - North Harbour | $1,608,449 | 23.2% | 7.4% | |
| North Shore - Onewa | $1,365,261 | 19.6% | 4.3% | |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $1,226,326 | 26.3% | 7.0% | |
| Auckland - City | $1,765,043 | 22.6% | 7.2% | |
| Auckland City - Central | $1,494,429 | 23.3% | 10.8% | |
| Auckland City - Islands | $1,919,391 | 38.1% | 23.6% | |
| Auckland City - South | $1,588,207 | 20.9% | 5.3% | |
| Auckland_City - East | $2,205,282 | 22.0% | 4.5% | |
| Auckland - Manukau | $1,370,259 | 27.8% | 5.7% | |
| Manukau - Central | $1,062,299 | 26.1% | 2.4% | |
| Manukau - East | $1,704,202 | 23.5% | 4.5% | |
| Manukau - North West | $1,185,542 | 28.1% | 6.9% | |
| Auckland - Papakura | $1,084,641 | 30.5% | 6.1% | |
| Auckland - Franklin | $1,045,704 | 32.1% | 5.1% | |
| Thames Coromandel | $1,159,754 | 21.8% | 3.3% | |
| Hauraki | $695,665 | 34.7% | 10.4% | |
| Waikato | $773,472 | 27.8% | 1.8% | |
| Matamata Piako | $741,685 | 30.1% | 5.2% | |
| Hamilton | $891,884 | 22.3% | 0.9% | |
| Hamilton - Central & North West | $821,597 | 20.5% | -0.4% | |
| Hamilton - North East | $1,113,445 | 24.9% | 0.7% | |
| Hamilton - South East | $823,451 | 22.2% | 1.9% | |
| Hamilton - South West | $789,254 | 19.5% | 1.9% | |
| Waipa | $912,488 | 25.1% | 3.7% | |
| Otorohanga | ||||
| South Waikato | $478,088 | 29.7% | 4.4% | |
| Waitomo | $386,142 | 36.9% | 2.3% | |
| Taupo | $882,732 | 34.3% | 7.4% | |
| Western BOP | $1,060,921 | 30.0% | 6.6% | |
| Tauranga | $1,185,907 | 32.1% | 4.1% | |
| Rotorua | $725,385 | 15.3% | 3.0% | |
| Whakatane | $782,692 | 28.5% | 8.5% | |
| Kawerau | $427,556 | 18.3% | 4.3% | |
| Gisborne | $659,477 | 24.2% | 2.8% | |
| Wairoa | $412,186 | 22.8% | 0.9% | |
| Hastings | $903,004 | 25.6% | 2.7% | |
| Napier | $895,290 | 20.6% | 1.5% | |
| Central Hawkes Bay | $661,956 | 36.5% | 7.0% | |
| New Plymouth | $728,891 | 23.9% | 3.5% | |
| Stratford | $486,143 | 22.4% | 2.6% | |
| South Taranaki | $434,768 | 21.5% | 0.0% | |
| Ruapehu | $409,340 | 27.8% | -1.5% | |
| Whanganui | $572,865 | 24.1% | 0.4% | |
| Rangitikei | $495,263 | 27.7% | 0.5% | |
| Manawatu | $673,150 | 21.2% | -0.7% | |
| Palmerston North | $748,529 | 18.3% | -0.3% | |
| Tararua | $465,093 | 23.6% | -0.6% | |
| Horowhenua | $662,887 | 24.1% | -0.1% | |
| Kapiti Coast | $977,568 | 18.4% | -0.7% | |
| Porirua | $1,010,455 | 18.9% | 1.0% | |
| Upper Hutt | $931,727 | 18.1% | -1.8% | |
| Lower Hutt | $985,062 | 19.7% | -1.8% | |
| Wellington City | $1,274,691 | 21.8% | 1.3% | |
| Wellington - Central & South | $1,199,083 | 17.4% | 1.8% | |
| Wellington - East | $1,407,446 | 27.4% | 1.7% | |
| Wellington - North | $1,210,878 | 24.7% | 0.5% | |
| Wellington - West | $1,470,774 | 21.6% | 1.4% | |
| Masterton | $682,675 | 21.6% | 1.7% | |
| Carterton | $731,839 | 19.1% | -1.4% | |
| South Wairarapa | $901,792 | 22.9% | -0.3% | |
| Tasman | $856,447 | 19.5% | 1.5% | |
| Nelson | $865,695 | 17.2% | -0.8% | |
| Marlborough | $739,433 | 20.5% | 3.3% | |
| Kaikoura | $598,853 | 15.3% | -2.2% | |
| Grey | $328,982 | 19.8% | -6.1% | |
| Hurunui | $592,393 | 29.6% | 7.5% | |
| Waimakariri | $690,646 | 32.9% | 3.8% | |
| Christchurch | $757,902 | 31.6% | 1.8% | |
| Christchurch - Banks Peninsula | $803,553 | 31.8% | 2.9% | |
| Christchurch - Central & North | $867,766 | 29.4% | 1.4% | |
| Christchurch - East | $577,465 | 30.8% | 1.4% | |
| Christchurch - Hills | $1,043,650 | 32.3% | 3.8% | |
| Christchurch - Southwest | $733,297 | 34.1% | 1.6% | |
| Selwyn | $868,673 | 38.2% | 3.1% | |
| Ashburton | $507,618 | 20.6% | 1.3% | |
| Timaru | $503,717 | 18.5% | 5.1% | |
| MacKenzie | $658,722 | 6.9% | -3.4% | |
| Waimate | $404,842 | 24.8% | 7.2% | |
| Waitaki | $493,647 | 20.0% | 3.6% | |
| Central Otago | $775,681 | 23.8% | 6.1% | |
| Queenstown Lakes | $1,684,142 | 32.4% | 7.4% | |
| Dunedin | $698,879 | 12.5% | -2.1% | |
| Dunedin - Central & North | $722,376 | 12.2% | -1.0% | |
| Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal | $662,771 | 17.1% | 1.6% | |
| Dunedin - South | $659,979 | 11.1% | -4.0% | |
| Dunedin - Taieri | $723,196 | 12.9% | -3.1% | |
| Clutha | $414,742 | 27.1% | 5.6% | |
| Southland | $477,292 | 22.2% | 1.8% | |
| Gore | $374,982 | 10.4% | -0.2% | |
| Invercargill | $481,586 | 16.4% | 2.8% | |
| Auckland Region | $1,520,341 | 24.7% | 6.5% | |
| Main Urban Areas | $1,185,036 | 23.0% | 3.7% | |
| Wellington Region | $1,128,708 | 20.6% | 0.3% | |
| Total NZ | $1,043,261 | 23.4% | 3.6% | |
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107 Comments
The market has turned best to wait and watch as houses become more affordable interest rates are still at emergency levels . Inflation is high and rates will be pushed up quickly following the FED at this point house price’s will tumble a lot quicker.
Agreed. Artificial financial anigravity has been turned off.
At One percent falls per month, this will take 30 months/ 2 and half years to get to your desired level.
Someone please pass the popcorn
Average house price in manukau around 1370000 average wage of working couple 110000 per year.So over 12 x wages how can this carry on huge losses are going to occur. Anyone who did not take cheeky low offer will regret it.
No such thing as a "cheeky low offer", just price discovery.
It will accelerate. Just like on the way up, that also happens on the way down. I give it 1 and a half years to the bottom. Sliding down the bank, then over the cliff.
In 18 months time all your going to find at the bottom of the cliff is a few more abandoned DGM user names.
Carlos is it DGM that average wages earners in NZ will be able to buy a house for family to do this house price’s will need to be 60% lower in Auckland. Are you happy that if price stay at this level most young families will leave country to have better future . Still you have your house and keeping its value seems to be your main priority.
Yeah...calling advocates for more affordable housing DGMs suggests quite some level of sociopathy or narcissism. Affordable housing for younger generations is a good thing.
I say this despite my property wealth having benefited from Reserve Bank and government policy handouts, like speculators' has. I have some regard for others in society.
Agreed. I suspect that anyone waiting for massive falls are going to be sadly disappointed and left complaining that they are still not "on the ladder".
Idoubtit are you one of the people who purchased property in last couple of years driven by FOMO if so you will be wishing you missed getting on the ladder. As watching your deposit disappear and being in negative equity is not fun
Dthr, you mean in your opinion. Why do people on this site think that their opinion is fact. If in fact he did buy a house two years ago they have seen 20/30% increases. If they then put in say 20% deposite on a 1 mil house they will be sitting somewhere in the 1.2 or 1.3 range(Conservative) with a mortgage just under 800k. If you think it's a fact that a now 1.3 million dollar home is going to drop below 1 mill then that's okay as that's your opinion. But don't say its going to happen and please have a think about how that comment would make a FHB feel thinking their in trouble that their actually not. Scare tactics are BS
Hi HW2,
Eating popcorn won't help you buy a house.....
It will only make your teeth rot and your belly fat.
TTP
Hi Ttp
Why would I want to buy another house, when I already have more than I need for now. You could say that I am a fat cat but I can assure you it is not from popcorn, it is from smart investments.
Thanks for thinking about my health. Stay well
What is the benefit of having more of something than you need? Especially when it is causing financial and social issues for others?
Isn't the ideal to simply have what you need and nothing more?
Nah, the ideal is to have bought several residential properties as investments when it was at affordable DTI levels, and think you're a financial genius ('from smart investments') for doing so.
Only a narcissist would mock anyone who wants to be able to afford their own house
Only a narcissist would mock anyone who wants housing to be affordable for the next generation
Seriously, this is beyond even TTP... he's a mega-landlord, and mega-millionaire but at least he's not trying to rub it in, bless em.
Multi unit properties cannot be owned by owner occupiers. It is the way the property titles are arranged and also how the previous property owners chose to handle their own properties that excluded FHB
Mate... you're like the aussie in the mitre 10 ad, only there for him/herself.
The other day you got well and truly put in your place by another well known commenter, so now there is no need to start coming on to me.
I wasn't talking about myself... you were
But, you're the self proclaimed smart one, so I'll believe you and agree to shut up.
Eh?? The comment was for I/O, unless you are the same person and maybe you are. But in answer to your statement making out that I am lording it over you or anyone else. I have a few assets, and so what.
My approach is that you cant take the money with you when you die, though many people and rulers have tried. And what is the point of working hard all of ones life in order to make someone overly rich, through inheritance, who did not earn it. I think if you have something, small or large it doesnt matter, you can multiply it to have a greater outcome. There was a certain man that did that, he took 5 loaves of bread and a couple of dead fish and managed to feed thousands of others. If you don't know that story google it. Whether it or not you believe it happened, it is a good example to follow. That is how I see things, you do not have to agree, I hope you do
.
There is a loooooong way yet to fall.
USA being bigger and diversify economy may still survive unlike NZ which is a small economy, concentrated only on housing sector.
RBNZ and Government has done more harm than good by pushing Kiwis into unproductivity speculative activity, turning entire nation greedy, where everyone is looking for fast and easy Big money.
Fundamental taking over from Mr Orr and Robertson.
Not "everyone" taimaiakka0. Some of us have been ridiculed over recent years because we didn't jump into the property market.
Referred to as financially stupid as if borrowing a million dollars to buy some crap box in Auckland, holding it for 12 months and then selling it to the next sucker was a financial masterclass. I didn't want to be a part of something that I felt was taking more away from future generations to enrich the few and I got grilled for that view as well.
Govt has certainly made it easy but individual greed and zero F's given for anyone else has led us to where we are. Ironically we are about as far away from a "Team of 5 million" now than we have been at any point in our history.
Wish I could give this multiple 'thumbs up'. Exactly my experience.
RBNZ and Government? Not sure they did the pushing, more like Boomers setting the rules along the way and gaming the system whilst pulling up the ladder at every opportunity.
Every generation
Blames the one before
And all of their frustrations
Come beating on your door
I know that I'm a prisoner
To all my Father held so dear
I know that I'm a hostage
To all his hopes and fears
I just wish I could have told him in the living years
Oh, crumpled bits of paper
Filled with imperfect thought
Stilted conversations
I'm afraid that's all we've got
You say you just don't see it
He says it's perfect sense
You just can't get agreement
In this present tense
We all talk a different language
Talking in defence
...
So we open up a quarrel
Between the present and the past
We only sacrifice the future
It's the bitterness that lasts
So don't yield to the fortunes
You sometimes see as fate
It may have a new perspective
On a different day
And if you don't give up, and don't give in
You may just be okay
Mike and the Mechanics
How long has this been going on.
Well your friends and their fancy persuasion
Don't admit that it's part of a scheme
I can't help but have my suspicions
Cause i ain't quite as dumb as i seem
Could Paul Carrack of Mike and the Mechanics and Ace be singing about the ponzi sceme.
Difference is, the reality of housing policy is that post-war generations and their governments put huge effort into building a large amount of affordable housing supply. And it resulted in very high rates of home ownership by the 1980s/90s.
That is a stark difference between the generations.
Yay, let's celebrate the less than one percent change in places like Hamilton and Christchurch.
Keep believing and It Will Happen
Trend is King and momentum has started.....Will not be long ...........
HW2. I’d chill out on the arrogant spruiking if I were you. None of us knows how bad things are going to get…. But you are making yourself look a silly billy. Where’s your bestie CWBW gone?
Correct. Nobody knows how bad it's going to get. Or if something changes and prices go back up.
I wouldn't start calling people "silly billy" until this plays out.
... the ducks are starting to line up : rapidly rising interest rates , a construction boom , net outflow of migrants , tougher lending rules , onerous rules on landlords , ban on offshore buyers , current prices at historically high levels in relation to household income ....
It won't happen overnight , but it will happen ....
They ain't making any more land...
yes and no
in a sense they are, by allowing more density and rezoning.
btw... it is mathematically demonstrated that 10 billions of human beings could fit in the grand canyon... well maybe not the best accomodation :D
but still, scarcity of "space" is not a real thing
The Netherlands disagrees with you
Those rapidly rising interest rates may falter, the construction boom may stop due to shortage of materials, net outflow of migrants could reverse, tougher lending rules could reverse (and will if Nats get in), same with landlord rules, same with ban on offshore buyers, current prices are at historical highs in relation to income (but worse elsewhere).
Is it likely to happen, yes
Can you 100% guarantee that it will, no
What you are saying is correct.
All those things can happen.
My bet is that (with no external interventions) the trend is set.
Is just a bet, I could lose it.
I just rented a beautiful place in the forest from a very kind lady and I decided to enjoy it for the next 18 months.
It will cost me circa 60k.
I could afford now a 1.3M house.
I believe in a -36% in real terms by then.
So I will save a bit more thab 450k if I am right.
450k - 60k = 390k of net savings
What is my risk? that the same house will go up another 30% in that timeframe?
I find it pretty unlikely.
I might be wrong, of course, but rationally it looks to me the best thing to do.
You're probably right, and if I was forced to bet I'd do the same.
Saying it is a 100% guarantee Is foolish
Yup, sure, way too many if.
Anybody claiming that will go up or down "for sure" is mathematically stating something false.
The set of current parameters, with the current knowledge, suggests that it would be common sense to bet in future lower or stable prices. <= this is a true claim.
Agreed, too many here claim opinion as a certainty.
What is my risk? that the same house will go up another 30% in that timeframe?
That's one risk. The other risk is that whatever your using as your current store of wealth declines markedly in the interim. E.g. cash - stolen, bank deposit - bail in, gold/shares/hedge fund - market drop. Remember how quickly Lehmans collapsed at the end. This whole Chinese property developer crisis gives me the willies.
The issue is you are only looking at an 18 month time frame which in terms of housing as an asset is very short. By choosing to rent you have locked in outgoings of $60k with no return other than lodgings for 18 months. If you are planning to need a house for say another 25 years, the ebbs and flows of the market in the short term are unlikely to bother you too much as it is certain to have periods of growth and decline.
With the rates of inflation we are seeing it isn't far from reality that we will see a $2 million dollar average house price in NZ in 10 years time. In hindsight that $1.3 million dollar purchase price now won't look too bad.
By the same token where is your friend Banter, are you simply very down by today's numbers.
When you say "... how bad things will get" I just think I am not caught up in your negative vibes and hoodoo
Where’s your bestie CWBW gone?
Same person isn't it?
This data is not worth the paper it’s written on. Wait for the REINZ HPI.
No offence HouseMouse, but don't you think that this data is a good indication of what the REINZ HPI will show?... Just like last month and the month before.
Nope
Not sure how you come to that conclusion when REINZ started showing price falls end of last year when corelogics were still showing strong growth. its the other way around, corelogic use 3 months of sales whereas REINZ uses just the one most recent months. So most of corelogic's sales used for a "month" are actually up to three months old. the Corelogic one lags the market.
REINZ does not show "price falls". But shows a decline in percentage of the growth rate.
As yet the price falls have all still been gains.
lol
You do realise that if the index number for this month is lower than the index number for last month, that means prices have actually fallen, don’t you?
No sorry, I do not realise that at all. Unless there is a negative growth rate prices still rise.
National average house price is up on last month at 1.04m.
Ah, comedy gold. Well done.
So if the only house sold this month was $5m and next month data shows average house price is now $5m, you think house prices have boomed? Do we just forget about the 32,000 houses for sale that are not selling, decreasing in asking price?
As your comment is not based in reality I have no argument with it.
Obviously not the reality, sorry I assumed you could look through my very exaggerated basic scenario to think about the principal. Morale of the story, sales data takes a long time to flow through and averages at the start of a decline will always be up/flat (higher quality houses selling)
Yes, exactly. It's just a shame it takes them 2 weeks after the end of the month to publish their report.
Any guesses how long it will take before they become affordable to the average joe?
My guess is never.
Hey now hey now,don't dream its over,,i feel a song coming on.
The volcano is just starting to erupt, people are best to evacuate until the craziness settles
"Affordable to the average Joe", unfortunately never. Those days are gone my friend. Even with a 'correction' your average wage earner in this country will not be able to afford a house without help.
Just like we will never again live in a country where you can leave your doors unlocked at night, or walk through certain parts of our cities without fear, snorkel for crayfish or scallops off the beach, swim in our rivers.
They say you can't stop progress which I don't have an issue with if that progress was in some way beneficial to the general population but unfortunately in our world progress means individual wealth, and that is very bad for NZ'ers on the whole as we are finding out.
Dude, that is a small price to pay for reducing our prison population.
I thought the market peaked in November? Auckland region shows 24.7% growth in the last 12 months and 6.5% growth in the last three months. Maybe my maths is wrong, but that does not look like a slowdown to me?
Exactly, where's the fall in house prices? My impression was that late last year was distorting these 3 month averages... we're past that now and it's still looking relatively strong? Based on these figures for most of the country it doesn't look like a buyers market.
Yep exactly. +0.7% price growth for the month, +3.2% growth for the first quarter.
The REINZ data will be along shortly and again will back this data up.. As yet there has been no fall in actual house prices.
Corlogic
Auckland City median house price falls 19 per cent since peak in November
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/12811007…
RE Agents.
More property listed below estimates as sellers 'adjust to market reality'
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/12819683…
To be fair I always thought those inner city apartments would be gold one day because the commute into town was getting worse and worse. Funny how something like Covid can come out of the blue and change all that, next minute loads of people can work from home. The point is something you never even considered in the equation just comes along and changes everything.
oh... a deserved like for honesty :)
If the council and landlords - including commercial - concentrated on making the city a beautiful place to live not just a workplace, I reckon apartments would go up in value (a la some cities in Europe). Problem is we keep impoverishing folk and seeing them turn up homeless, and that detracts too.
This data is lagged compared to the more timely REINZ, B&T etc. It'll catch up with reality in a couple of months.
Auckland's HPI in the 3 months to March was down 5.5%. So unless there has been some spectacular house price growth in March, we can probably assume it's sales composition skewing the averages upwards.
This weeks Hutt valley Update
Current Market Listings
652 houses on the market- increase of 27 on this time last week.
Based on the REINZ data which showed which 96 sold in Feb – 649 houses means there is 6.5 months stock on the market
Using the 20/21 data where 40 houses a week sold then there is 16 weeks of stock on the market
This week there have been very few houses sold – the lowest since early Feb – so I’m inclined to thinks sales are now around the 20-25 houses sold a week – which would indicate there is over 6 months stock on the market.
House Price Reductions
Similar to last week 278 houses have a listed price and again this week prices have continued to fall with 60% of the houses with prices having marked down their price in recent weeks by an average of 75K. Still seeing a number of houses dropping prices by 100-150K in the past week- still mainly in the $1M plus mark but around 20 properties under $1 Million have reduced their prices by 100K +.
The data continues to show the majority of houses listed are under 900K. The Median house price for all 652 listings is now 849K. (steady on last week)
Most sales on the market continue to be at the 800K-$1 Million mark. The big price reductions as mentioned above are in the 800K-$1.2M mark, the average reduction is $91K reduction (which is up on the 73K which was the average reduction as of the week of the 16th March )
Length of time on the Market
425 of the houses have been on the market for over 30 days - 65% (last week it was 403)
256 of the houses have been on the market for over 60 days - 39% (last week it was 243)
The percentage and number of houses on the market longer than 2 months is growing each week – indicating a stagnation of house sales.
Rental Market
Meanwhile the rental market has 171 properties for rent (up 2 on last week), up 50 on this time last year.
A number of properties are taking some time to rent and having to drop their rental price up to $100 a week in order to rent the property. Average rental price reduction YTD is $47 a week and 31% have dropped their prices since listing.
Why so many listings
A question that needs to be asked why so many listings? The last time there was this many listings was in 2009 during the GFC and at a time when the hutt valley manufacturing base was shutting down resulting in a number of people relocating cities.
A number of real estate commentators were noting last week the number of houses in the Wellington region were the highest in a decade at 16 weeks stock and Wellington was now a buyers market. Even the local Hutt Valley real estate agents in their weekly newsletters have started commenting on the rapid increase of houses on the market.
So whats driving it now- there are a number of new builds on the market (roughly 20% of listings) however this still puts the number of existing houses for sale at 500 which is 2.5 times the number that were for sale this time last year.
Anecdotally I know a handful of under 30’s who are heading to Aussie, a number of listings show people heading to Christchurch and the south island. I have also heard of a number of public servants heading to private sector jobs elsewhere in NZ ie Auckland, Tauranga etc.
What’s everybody else hearing about Wellington / Hutt valley and the rapid number of listings?
It's a tale of many stories. Anecdotally I hear that Kapiti is still booming as new transport links open up, and more businesses embrace hybrid/ remote working. The days of spending 2+hrs to commute to Kapiti seem over.
Upper Hutt seem to also have some strong positive winds. A number of large employers such as Kiwi Rail are in the process of moving out there, along with other high paying employers - lane street movie studios and the new CRT elite fitness campus. Upper Hutt also has (relative to the WLG region) more affordable housing, so I would expect a softer landing for houses there and Kapiti.
Lower Hutt and WLG City values are heavily weighted to commute distance (to CBD), so suffer negatively from the same positive winds that benefit Kapiti and U Hutt. Just my two cents.
The days of spending 2+hrs to commute to Kapiti seem over.
Well, for now anyway. I'll give it 5 years before things clog up. Transmission Gully won't be closed by big waves, so that's something.
Please remind me how many units are being built...was it twenty developments coming on stream in Lower Hutt?
Hi GNX - since the beginning of 2020 Hutt Council has approved 18 Medium to large developments - where each development is 20+ units.
A number of them are much larger than 20 units ie the old Imperial Tobacco site has 96 units on it
So another 500 units.. add that to the 650 on the market and buyers will have a lot of choice (:
auckland can’t be too far behind
the estimation is around 900 units has come from the 18 approved developments and most of them are completely sold out ie the imperial tobacco went to market last year and is completely sold. A lot of these will come to market as rentals by year end- although some may sell
I live in Lower Hutt. I know 3 different couples who all moving out of Lower Hutt because they are able to work from home so no longer need to be close to Wellington City. Two of the couples are moving over to the Wairarapa and have already bought brand new builds with big sections. One of the husbands will commute on the train from Wairarapa but only two days a week. The other couple is moving onto a lifestyle block in Te Horo (Kapiti Coast) and they are both going to be working from home full-time with the odd trip into their offices in Wellington, he was saying he might commute in a couple of times a month.
I myself am looking at doing the same. My employer is willing to let me work from home 4 days a week so I will only need to commute into Wellington once a week. If that commute is 2 hours then so be it, I'll only have to do it once a week and in return for the same price we can sell our 1970s built house here in Lower Hutt *at the moment*, we can buy a brand new or recent build with more land up the coast.
I'm guessing that a bit of this is playing out in all the major cities, people are moving into those 1hr-2hr commute areas because they don't have to do it very often and get much better house and lifestyle in return. COVID has fast tracked employers capability to allow employees to work from home and this has fundamentally changed where people need to be to work. The mantra of "Location, Location, Location" may be suffering at the hands of technology advances.
I live in the Wairarapa, my office is in Lower Hutt. I also commute 2 days per week. Bought a large house on 1/4 acre within 5 minutes walk to the train station, 5 minute walk to my daughter's school etc. The lifestyle is superb. The only traffic lights are at Carrington Children's Park.
Double the house size, double the section, mortgage the same and life is much better. If you can WFH lose the shackles of the office. You don't really like your colleagues that much anyway.
This trend is bad news overall for the country. We need vibrant busy cities to attract international talent and foster innovation. Suburban lifestyles are unsustainable and working from home permanently is also a temporary glitch. Just think about it, if your work can be done remotely it's only a matter of time before those jobs get outsourced to the lowest bidder that can get the job done. With New Zealand's high cost of living (and relatively high salaries) it's unlikely those jobs will stay here long. Enjoy your suburban dreams while they last...
New Zealanders are already working for Aussie and American companies remotely too. Better wages, obviously.
But it does highlight that education and healthcare are the two biggest investments we as society should be making. We have a current advantage in the above outsourcing game due to our education levels, but that could change.
I am now used to give you a like even before reading the report :D
Thankyou for the like - glad you enjoy the reports.
I was thinking of doing this fortnightly because the data seems to be similar each week (plus it now takes hours each week to track the price movements and listed prices - there are so many)
But then I note just in the last week the number of houses on the market has jumped from 625 this time last week and today its at 670 and that creates a new story in itself - it is not inconceivable for 700 houses to be on the market this time next week
Each week there seems to be new sets of data that are surprising.
Corelogic figures look a bit rubbish, do they use settlements or something for the data? All other stats are showing much bigger falls e.g. HPI, Barfoot median sales data etc...
Any predictions for what the change in OCR will be next week? Oops, never mind, I see there is an article about that :-)
Great time to buy a negatively geared rental.
/s
Some people argue that recent rates hikes will cause recession. But this data doesn't show any of the sign yet to me.
This means we still have lots of room for rates to hike further. Buckle your seat belt ;)
Except for the most reliable sign since 1970?
I live in te atatu peninsula, just looking at the market in this little neck of the woods, it is pretty obvious that Joe Development has left the room, some agents still havent caught on to that fact, and are still trying to sell, and price, based on development opportunity. There are a ton of dog boxes in process that will likely hit market mid to late this year.
Definitely sellers expectations are miles high. There are a ton of developer non settlements happening in South Auckland that have far reaching downwind effects to the associated vendors. It looks to me like a perfect storm, and will only get worse as the year wears on. Just my opinion but I cant see this ending well.
I echo your summation entirely
The unfortunate side effect of high house prices is that developers have had to build places that the the masses can still "afford". This has lead to some real crap being built that should never have happened. We really don't learn from our mistakes in this country, its like the monoclad housing saga its all good for now but a huge problem in the future.
That’s a good point Carlos. A few of these new developments are of questionable quality. I’m wondering if they’ll develop a stigma in the near future as issues start to surface. I hope not because I’m actually a fan of the likes of Hobsonville point, it’s a great community.
Good to hear its a great community and I hope it stays that way but when I drove through Hobsonville point a couple of years ago, I wanted to run screaming.
Big houses that look directly into each others bathrooms, no land at all. Expensive and 2+ hours from work (admitting the WFH now makes that less of an issue). It was a shock to see as it was promoted as "the new way" but there is too much humanity in hearing your neighbour fart as you eat your breakfast for me.
Double glazing and air conditioning should solve that :)
I agree to a certain extent, though - it's not my sort of lifestyle and overpriced (just compare to Greenhithe which is just up the road, really). But Hobby Pt. does seem to be a cut way above the rest of the "new way". And it's a relaxing 35 minute trip to the city if you happen to work there and take the ferry.
Does surprise me they build standalone houses a metre apart. What's the point, at that distance?
Still numbers heading in the North direction. Maybe April will be the month some are hoping for.
Yes its coming for sure, there will be euphoria amongst the DGM's here but still the question remains, how big and how long will the dip be ? We have already had proof that this government and the RBNZ will drop their pants to keep the property market on a roll so all the ranting on here counts for nothing in trying to change that.
I still believe once the interest rates settle down near the end of the year, lending restrictions that have shown to be very strict, have already been eased soon to take affect and we get inflation starting to settle, the housing market will prove to be very resilient. I've said all along temporary dip around 5/10% then a return to positive territory by December.
Positive in real or nominal terms?
Groan don't start that crap again, positive is positive we are not changing the metrics so you can somehow claim its negative when its a low rate positive. I have been picking the same, dip and recovery by the end of the year, still single digit house price growth for Tauranga YoY. Sure it may be tiny growth but lets wait until Jan 2023.
What impact will more expensive mortgages have? Higher mortgage interest that can over time no longer be expensed away means rents must go up or they will have to sell.
Investors selling is great news for FHB's but sad face for renters. Still it's not like we have an emergency housing situation...
Houses don't drop off the face of the earth when landlords sell... When prices fall as landlords sell, renters will buy the properties.
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