Sales rates for Auckland properties auctioned by Barfoot & Thompson ranged from 50% in Franklin to 19% in Waitakere

If prices are holding it won’t be for long with interest rates going up and inflation,  more stock trademe levels up 10% in one week it only a matter of time before the tumble.

We are looking at the trend here TTP…. Not many people are expecting price to drop overnight, especially when the market has been extremely hot for a while.. let’s give it couple of months and wait for RBNZ and US Feds to continue to hike their rates…

Do you have evidence of prices holding? The 6% rise over the past three months is due to the November pricing, it will go negative within 2 months unless there are policy changes. Look at the houses that are selling, the vendors have lowered their expectations.

Yes, one property sold which met the vendor's price expectation which is likely in line with where the current market benchmark price.  

Unfortunately it's not a Dutch Auction, so we will not see what the other properties could have realistically fetched to get a better gauge of how the market is faring.  Prices are sticky on the way down.  Zero properties could sell in the next 6 months, and we won't see a fall in price statistics.  

I always enjoy a good TinkerThePrice hot take on prices.

I'll celebrate even if a fire sale event comes round the corner.

Some old man in mid-west once said,

"When it's raining gold, bring out the bucket!"

It hasn't failed me in this life time.

It is the same throughout the Wairarapa. Houses just aren't selling. Covid uncertainty may have a lot to do with it as is the CCCFA. Last year unconditional offers without any finance requirements were often needed to win a tender. Now money seems to have dried up. Houses that were up for tender now have prices on them, with some having the price dropped, and they still aren't selling

Velocity - average days to sell is important as well...

there is no return in rents now ie deductibles (interest) etc, if prices start falling there is no reason to buy as an investor until the numbers make it a safe investment,    the bid is a long way lower

The question is how much will the banks raise their TD?

If anything, they'll pass you the crumbs after they got the bread and butter with the ham in it.

Over the last two years the RBNZs announcements have been nothing but a dissapointment... given this I'm not sure Orr will deliver anything meaningful and it will be BAU.

I think it needs to be 50 bps, Orr needs to give it a decent whack now. And I actually think he *will* do 50. 

Houses are a lot like bonds, you either trade them for the coupon or a risk view on face value.....

Now that houses are falling and the credit is set at restrictive, houses must be priced based on coupons (rental earnings) ....

An entire generation is going to learn about negative equity.

After 20 years of boom the last couple will be given back, think thats around 40-48%.    but it does not matter if its 20-30-50+  its the sentiment that drives this wave, predicting ammounts is like predicting how far up the beach the wave will wash, pointless really.     just make sure your sand based castles sit above the high tide mark

I like the phrase "Government has no ideas"

I think some of the smart people in NZ need to get together and firm up a new party which will really take our country to new heights.

We do not need empty, hollow politicians who just sway like dry clothes on a clothes line.

We need strong and intelligent decesion makers who will create opportunities for this generation and help build a strong foundation for the next.

The current politicians have no idea about their own future, they can't create a good one for us certainly. 

Good on her mate!

Try to look from investors' point of view; if there is money to be made, we would had been irresponsible not to make them.

Perhaps then you'll understand why knocking on investors is actually wrong.

Fishing is good, country lifestyle, weather is fine, quakes seldom bother, floods aren't a thing and you get to stake the waters before the annual 90 mile beach challenge.

What's not to like?

Supply increasing, demand decreasing = ...........

Why do I get the feeling there is a lot of crap for sale in the housing market ? Its a last chance to try and offload the rubbish at the peak of the market but they have just missed it. Very strange things happenings on Trade-Me with cars as well, a particular car I have been watching suddenly has 3 pages of them for sale. Looks like a lot of collectors are selling up, you don't usually even see one for sale.

Take away the number of 2 bed homes which have flooded the market. Caused by something called a pandemic which closed borders, shut down intnl tourism and education. Amazing who would have thought

Problem is I think a lot of people won't really grasp the data.  If you pick a person from random, hell you could pick someone in your family that you know aren't Interest.co readers, and you tell them 1 out of 22 properties sold at Auction on Friday their response will be "Oh, okay is that good or bad?".  

I notice Interest.co.nz's brilliant article showing that the share of FHBs had INCREASED since CCCFA was not repeated in the MSM. 

I've noticed Tonys statements are getting vague with no real commitment to predictions/forcasts...no doubt he doesn't want to upset his funders. I did however hear him this week state there could be house price falls 'here and there' - may have been a slip up...

thats a bet you could also make selling naked puts....

I would rather be baying the well out of money puts though