REINZ's national median house price up $180,000 in 12 months

Property / news

House prices continuing to rise strongly but sales numbers are looking wobbly

13th Dec 21, 9:13am by Greg Ninness

House floating in the sky under balloons

House prices continued to increase strongly in most parts of the country during November but the number of sales was well down on a year ago, according to the latest figures from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand.

The REINZ's national median selling price hit a new record high of $925,000 in November, up by $180,000 (24%) since November last year.

In the country's largest real estate market, Auckland, the median price rose by $55,000 in the month of November to a record $1.3 million, up by $270,000 ($26%) since November last year.

In the rest of New Zealand, excluding Auckland, the median price also hit a new record of $775,000, up by $160,000 (26%) since November last year.

Strong price gains for the month were also recorded in Northland where November's median was up by $45,000 compared to October, Waikato +$53,000, Gisborne +60,000, West Coast +$50,000 and Canterbury +$25,000.

However, four regions recorded recorded median price declines in November compared to October: Taranaki -$3900, Wellington Region -$37,500, Otago -$40,100 and Southland -$7500.

There was a particularly large decline in the median price in the Queenstown-Lakes District, where it declined $125,000 in November compared to October.

The median price in the Bay of Plenty was unchanged in November compared to October (the interactive chart below shows the trend in median price in all regions).

However while strong price growth remained a feature of the market in most parts of the country in November, the number of homes that were sold was well down on November last year.

The REINZ recorded 8381 residential sales in November, down 18% compared to November last year.

The biggest decline in sales volumes compared to November last year were in West Coast -49%, Northland -35%, Bay of Plenty -29%, Waikato -23%, Gisborne -13%, Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman -23%, Auckland -23%, Otago -19% and Canterbury -16% (the second interactive chart below shows the sales volume trends for all regions).

With new listings rising strongly in November, the decline in sales numbers could be further evidence that the bottom end of the market is cooling as sky high prices take their tool on affordability and most of the action is concentrated in the upper end of the market.

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Median price - REINZ

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Source: REINZ

Volumes sold - REINZ

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Source: REINZ

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129 Comments

by VanillaChilli | 13th Dec 21, 9:17am 1639340271

graph looking parabolic; congrats Orr & Adern for letting speculators profiteer from human misery; its kiwi eat kiwi business out there...

by taimaiakka0 | 13th Dec 21, 9:39am 1639341547

I though National party looks after them but here Labour party has done it using crisis as an excuse that even national party could not have thinked off.

Power......

by Yvil | 13th Dec 21, 11:03am 1639346623

What's your mother tongue taimaiaka?

by Chris-M | 13th Dec 21, 4:02pm 1639364576

The only hope for aspiring FHBs is to leave the country for one of the many with far more favorable price to income ratios. Well qualified and skilled young Kiwis will have no trouble getting work overseas in a world of skill shortages.

There is little sense waiting around here, paying stupid rents and vainly hoping for things to somehow magiclly change. Decades and just about every government permutation have made no difference so it is totally irrational to expect change to suddenly spontaneously occur. All you will hear is mountains and mountains of empty and cynical rhetoric.

by CWBW | 13th Dec 21, 5:01pm 1639368100

Indeed, would love to see more Kiwis learn the hard truth once they land on the tarmac of a foreign land.

Check this out, the neighourhood is the Māngere equivalent over the ditch.

It's so true that the grass is green everywhere else out of NZ but what they didn't tell you is that it's because they're painted on.

Nothing is stopping people with a passion for Astroturf.

by PitU | 13th Dec 21, 9:42am 1639341741

Parabolic indeed, especially when zooming out the median price charts. Where it's broken out (ceiling, 2 years ago) it will likely retest and if found sufficient support it'll form support.

by Yvil | 13th Dec 21, 11:30am 1639348208

Yes prices are definitely ahead of the long term curve. Looking at the graph back to 1992 prices were just over $100k, in 2002 they not quite doubled to just under 200k, in 2012 they pretty much doubled to $400k but now we are have already surpassed the doubling to $800k

by ACB | 13th Dec 21, 11:48am 1639349305

If this curve is overlaid with real interest rates and credit growth we can probably see a strong correlation.

And everywhere I look there is residential construction going on - it's just nuts.

It will all end in tears unless we keep the floodgates open to immigration (which I suspect is the plan, like in Canada and Aus).

by Fluffybunny | 13th Dec 21, 12:12pm 1639350728

The only correlation that matters is credit availability.

by HW2 | 13th Dec 21, 9:57am 1639342655

The stupid pollies both central and local, thought that they were doing the right thing pandering to special interest groups. I think this goes back to the 80s to the RMA as well as greenies. Go take a look at council district plans from the 1970s and you will see they were small versus what you find today. All that has done is allow the runaway property train to leave the station and to start picking up speed. Pretty hard to stop it now without tipping over the whole economy and thousands of jobs.

by Dave Moderato | 13th Dec 21, 11:07am 1639346862

Jacinda is kind. No jab, no job!

by Contrarian | 13th Dec 21, 11:10am 1639347004

Let us see what Luxon proposes in specific measures to divert personal investment into businesses instead of investment properties. And how and Seymour join together to bring that about.

by rastus1 | 13th Dec 21, 11:54am 1639349673

...nothing. Were you asleep for the last 9 years of National - their policy's have not changed since.

The only party that will do anything will be an outlier. In NZ's case that's TOP.

But the sheeple will let Nat or Lab have another go -

"The definition of insanity is voting the same party over and over again, but expecting different results." - Albert Einstein

by blobbles | 13th Dec 21, 12:39pm 1639352371

But it will be different this time! (said everyone who voted for John Key...). You expect Luxon to be any different? You are having a laugh...

by Yvil | 13th Dec 21, 5:45pm 1639370702

rastus, bobbles, why don't you open your mind just little bit, give someone new a chance instead of being stuck in your preconceived and negative ideas

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 21, 8:39pm 1639381175

Yvil, I think his view is perfectly reasonable given the lies and false hopes that both Ardern and Key provided.

It will take an awful lot for me to ever consider voting for either major party ever again.

I will need to be convinced of not just the leader but also their senior team.

Even though I fell for Ardern first time round, I was never hopeful of her caucus. And as much as I have grown to dislike her, I think the bigger issue has been that massive deficit of ability in her cabinet.

by RickStrauss | 14th Dec 21, 7:38am 1639420700

People were, but then Luxon started talking. NIMBYism and keeping property prices up.

No use at all to NZ's younger generations. Just more Granny State.

by mangoes_for_me | 13th Dec 21, 2:20pm 1639358453

They need to use a log-scale graph, that would show the situation more realistically.

by chebbo | 13th Dec 21, 9:45am 1639341936

Inventory up 5% on November last year. I'm pretty sure last month's REINZ report had inventory down quite substantially on October 2020 (if anyone has a copy of that report it would be interesting to know what it was). Seems like a lot of property coming on to the market and not being sold.

Edit: October's REINZ report had national inventory down 16% YoY, November's is +5.1%. So unless we typically see a massive fall in inventory at this time of year, it looks very much like a rush for the exits.

by Carlos67 | 13th Dec 21, 10:10am 1639343454

????? How can less inventory be a rush to the exits ? A rush to the "Exits" would be twice as much inventory for sale now compared to pre-Covid and its still half of that. Houses are still selling, prices are crazy and there is still not much for sale. Granted, I expect it all to change next year but for now its still up, up and away.

by Mr Frank | 13th Dec 21, 10:12am 1639343551

90% of people will say how horrible this is but let's face it, those are not home owners. Most home owners will say it's horrible but they are laughing all the way to the bank, quietly.

by Average Kiwi | 13th Dec 21, 10:45am 1639345505

Until they realise that their Kids cannot afford buy homes, and prospects of getting grand children diminish.

by frazz | 13th Dec 21, 11:57am 1639349872

What kids...that's a luxury add on these days.

by Mr Frank | 13th Dec 21, 1:28pm 1639355283

Bank of Mum and Dad will do it.

by Jesse1 | 14th Dec 21, 10:43am 1639431803

Yes the concept of having kids is getting quite quaint these days.

by keriwin | 13th Dec 21, 6:21pm 1639372885

Our kids already own homes, our Grandchildren are getting richer by the day. Thanks Jacinda, one of a long list of Socialists to kick their own supporters in the guts.

by RickStrauss | 14th Dec 21, 7:40am 1639420857

Phil Goff has gone that way too. Erstwhile working class party roots, now become a regular entitled old NIMBY.

by DTRH | 13th Dec 21, 10:59am 1639346389

You have to sell to be laughing your way too the bank. This is what the smart people are doing right at the top good luck if you are just enjoying your on paper wealth.

by Yvil | 13th Dec 21, 5:48pm 1639370884

There is no top, just look at the graph above! (apart form a small short one that can't be predicted). People have been predicting a top for 30 years, these people have missed out massively

by keriwin | 13th Dec 21, 6:32pm 1639373548

We sold at the top in 1972 when houses doubled in one year 10,000 pounds, again in 1983 for 47,000 pounds and again in 1994 for 245,000 pounds. That house we sold in 1994 was worth 900,000 pounds in 2004 and 1,800,000pounds in 2014. Looking back over 50 years I guess I’m still looking for the top!

by ACB | 13th Dec 21, 11:52am 1639349571

If you own your own home outright, you should be indifferent personally, as it's paper profits or losses only. I am one of these and I want to see a house market crash, it's just not good for society.

by Fluffybunny | 13th Dec 21, 12:14pm 1639350863

I Don't think so. Only if you can actually sell at the peak and transfer that wealth to other assets or people.

For the vast majority of home owners. They have not bought or sold anything in the last 2 years, so would be unaffected if prices suddenly collapsed 30%

by chebbo | 13th Dec 21, 10:14am 1639343681

How can less inventory be a rush to the exits ?

It can't. November's figures show inventory up 5% on last year.

My point is that coming off the back of October's report, which showed inventory levels down by 16% YoY, that's a big move upwards in a fairly short space of time.

by Mr Frank | 13th Dec 21, 10:16am 1639343761

It's because of lockdown. No surprises that masses decide to list in November when photography etc can be done. Don't expect this trend to continue.

by chebbo | 13th Dec 21, 10:27am 1639344466

Everything's because of lockdown.

While one swallow does not a summer make, there are other factors besides COVID-19 to take into account here. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the statistics, even if it's too early to call it a trend just yet.

by Cowpat | 13th Dec 21, 10:11am 1639343499

Comparisons to last year or quarterly, are so skewed, whether it be housing or most other economic data (including this weeks GDP) that any number or metric needs to be taken with a large amount of context. Excluding 2020, November real estate sales both New Zealand and surprisingly Auckland were the highest since 2006 .

by JustAnOpinion | 13th Dec 21, 9:27am 1639340873

Thanks Labour, my housing stock has increased in paper value by 100% under your watch.

Of course this is frustrating as I was one of many swing-voters to vote for you in 2017 to actually lower the price but oh well.

by Nzdan | 13th Dec 21, 3:27pm 1639362478

I sold my entry level first home for shy of 3x what we paid for it in 2017. Thanks to Labour, I have managed to turn that extra equity into an upgrade that I would not have otherwise been able to afford while still sitting on a comfortable buffer.

by Yvil | 13th Dec 21, 5:40pm 1639370453

Well done NZDan, just imagine if you listened to all the people predicting house prices to crash back when yo bought...

by HW2 | 13th Dec 21, 8:25pm 1639380320

Original home tripled in 4 years.... very well done and probably have a home of your dreams now

by AJ123 | 13th Dec 21, 9:27am 1639340876

What else you can expect with all the tomfoolery, request to the author don't come with next article about house price falling at some area in a small period of time as overall it's up, you cannot choose both sides after flipping the coin.

by Notgreedykiwi | 13th Dec 21, 9:32am 1639341147

They reached the 180k mark. So are they going to be taxed at 39% now?

by bw | 13th Dec 21, 9:36am 1639341398

(And it's not just us. Adapted from https://tinyurl.com/3t7yjrx3  )

New Zealand has about the word’s most expensive people, the world’s most expensive land and housing costs, the world’s most expensive energy and world’s most expensive internet. Because of the above no company or private investor in their right mind would want to look at New Zealand as a location from which to do something competitive with the rest of the world. Because of the above the only meaningful export or import facing activity New Zealand undertakes is population exploitation - tourism and foreign students. Beyond this, the economy is an inward facing bubble. Within that bubble the only way to achieve ‘growth’ is to increase the numbers of people in the bubble (and in the procrss make ourselves 'rich' by speculating on the prices of the necessities of Life that an increasing population demands)

by J.C. | 13th Dec 21, 9:46am 1639342000

I despise the whole cultural diversity nonsense used to decorate the immigration rort cake (Pakeha culture controls the rule based system). Also, let's be real, immigration is largely about income suppression and an easy way to boost GDP so the ruling elite can tell the sheeple how well they're doing. GDP per capita growth is unlikely to be going anywhere and national share of income won't have been improving. Such a fraud.

by Mrs The Point | 13th Dec 21, 10:01am 1639342876

How long can we keep suppressing wages and inflating house prices? Somethings got to give. So unfair on our young people.

by Halfway To Paradise | 13th Dec 21, 10:12am 1639343575

We can probably expect an inflation linked hike in the minimum wage to help the lower paid but further wipe out the pay differential for the likes of nurses and teachers. Further eroding the incentive for people to study (and pay for it) for these jobs.

by Mr Frank | 13th Dec 21, 10:13am 1639343615

Face it, even if house prices become static for the next 10 years, it will still be unaffordable.

by keriwin | 13th Dec 21, 6:53pm 1639374795

It’s always been “unfair” for young people. It was definitely unfair for us in 1971. It was also unfair when our daughter bought in 2004 and unfair when our son bought in 2013. It looks like the difference between us and you we just got on with it without complaining. My $10,000 (in the UK) is now $3,000,000. Just do it and in 50 years the numbers will look to you just as silly as my numbers do now.

by Mrs The Point | 13th Dec 21, 9:27pm 1639384046

You have made some way off the mark assumptions about me there. I own multiple properties in Auckland. The conditions now, and leverage needed are nothing like when I first started investing in property. The difference between us and you is that I would be happy to see my homes 1/2 in value and for young people to get a fair crack.

by Te Kooti | 13th Dec 21, 10:40am 1639345237

JC I have a quiet chuckle/crings whenever I see/hear a pakeha middle manager say "mahi". I agree on diversity, it really is just a trojan horse for GDP growth which every Western economy has to have to meet it's obligations. What you rarely hear on diversity is that there is a lot of empirical research that shows it really is beneficial - but only in limited situations, specifically complex tasks. Research has shown diversity is actually negative during simple or repetitive tasks.

by No Moa | 13th Dec 21, 5:53pm 1639371181

Tk - sounding racist again?

by Chinaman1 | 13th Dec 21, 7:04pm 1639375482

The victim ideology is hard to resist

by Fluffybunny | 13th Dec 21, 12:19pm 1639351168

No more immigration please.

by taimaiakka0 | 13th Dec 21, 9:37am 1639341429

Annual rise will now be manipulated in future by vested biased interest for next year if it rise by $160000, will say is falling ( technically correct but after rising from April to to November by 10% to 20% again rise from December to now by 20% to 30% is tremendous).

by PitU | 13th Dec 21, 9:41am 1639341704

Parabolic indeed, especially when zooming out the median price charts. Where it's broken out (ceiling, 2 years ago) it will likely retest and if found sufficient support it'll form support.

by Pacman_46 | 13th Dec 21, 9:46am 1639342001

It’s not the value going up, it’s the purchasing power of our currency dropping. Orr in other words…the mountain is not growing, we are just falling off it faster.

by Solid_Granite | 13th Dec 21, 10:46am 1639345565

You just described inflation. I do wonder whether they include house prices when calculating their inflation figures.

by Mr Frank | 13th Dec 21, 9:58am 1639342686

Geee, this just isn't right. Where can I hand back my 250k that I earned in the last 12 months to?

Said no one ever.

by tomjones_04 | 13th Dec 21, 11:41am 1639348873

Earned?

by Fluffybunny | 13th Dec 21, 12:23pm 1639351391

Potential earnings you only earned if you sold.

The vast majority of house owners in nz would not be affected by an overnight decrease of 30%

Prices are only what people are currently paying. Its not set in stone and comparatively there are fewer houses being exchanged right now.

by Mr Frank | 13th Dec 21, 1:29pm 1639355347

Yes in my bank, earned or given or act of god, it's showing in my balance.

by tomjones_04 | 13th Dec 21, 4:17pm 1639365425

I’ve never heard anyone say their house ‘earned’ them money. It just sits there!

mind you I have come across the odd guy that talks like that but he’s the one you pray you don’t get stuck with at social functions. You know the one where the host says “sorry, I had to invite him because …(insert excuse)” His nickname is generally something like ‘weirdo Frank’..you know the guy.

by HW2 | 13th Dec 21, 8:42pm 1639381333

"Gee arent you the friendly banter guy.... Mr Tom Jones?"

by Mr Frank | 14th Dec 21, 9:55am 1639428903

tomjones, your attitude falls within the tall poppies brigade. This is why we don't celebrate success in NZ, instead we shout down those who earn good money. I am quite happy keeping my 250k I earned while you keep being salty.

by RickStrauss | 14th Dec 21, 10:44am 1639431881

I also got my free money from RBNZ/govt efforts but I see no reason to congratulate myself for that. That would suggest ridiculous narcissism.

We should celebrate and reward achievement rather than happening to possess land.

by Clementé | 13th Dec 21, 3:02pm 1639360961

just remortgage and then go out and spend spend spend... new car, ring for the wife, that bahamas holiday.

do it - your earned it - its yours - for all your sacrifice and clever investing

by printer8 | 13th Dec 21, 10:09am 1639343383

Despite the headline of high growth, ANZ seem to have a realistic view of the current and future situation in context.

Bottom line

November showed another month where the shine continued to come off house prices - albeit gradually. Annual house price inflation is past the peak – and on a monthly basis, November price gains were the second-lowest we’ve seen since the end of lockdown in 2020. Housing headwinds are starting to be felt, and we expect that house prices will struggle to grow much further as we head into 2022. We’re not yet forecasting any significant declines in house prices, but it’s a downside risk that is well within the realms of possibility as mortgage rates rise and tighter regulations reduce lending growth

ANZ Research - REINZ Housing Data 13 December

by Mr Frank | 13th Dec 21, 10:11am 1639343473

And they have a really good record of getting their predictions right over the last 18 months.

by Roy1 | 13th Dec 21, 10:25am 1639344313

Their Predection = Their feeling to suit their agenda.

First they decide what they want - result and work backward to justify it instead of analysing the current situation and act for future.

by blobbles | 13th Dec 21, 3:44pm 1639363457

It's been quite clear for some time, that when the retail banks complain that house prices are about to drop, the RBNZ comes rushing in with a bunch of ill thought out policies and horrific reasoning, to avoid it from happening. The banks have essentially learned to play the RBNZ like a fiddle, whatever they want, they come up with whatever "it's not looking good" story to make the RBNZ act to stop it, even though it's not true.

"LVR's could stop us from lending!" (totally wouldn't have, but the RBNZ threw them out anyway)

"House prices are likely to drop up to 40% due to COVID!" (enable banks to print ridiculous sums of money)

etc etc

by Roy1 | 13th Dec 21, 10:23am 1639344198

Image reflects true picture that house prices still continue to rise despite RBNZ and many experts claiming since March ( more than six months) that excepting housing market to cool, hence no action is taken by RBNZ and Government.

RBNZ is still in await and Watch Mode, hence crying for DTI since ages, when to their surprise got it are hesitant and playing with time (firstly have no intent to apply DTI but if forced as per RBNZown admission / justification, will take 18 months to impliment it to protect FHB from over exposure under FOMO).

WHY IS IT THAT ACTUAL DATA / FACT ARE IGNORED AND RBNZ WORKING ON FEELING / EXPECTATION - SO WHY HAVE DATA.

Can Gregg Ninness or any experts ask Mr Orr when will start believing data and stop with his feeling ( Is this what they did with inflation data - ignored and are still ignoring actual data and following their feeling of Transitory Inflation to deflect limelight / pressure from them).

Not only democracy but even reserve bank need change and losing its credibility like never before.

by Yvil | 13th Dec 21, 10:33am 1639344802

by Yvil | 7th Dec 21, 10:56am

It's mostly the lower end houses that are getting passed in, prices are too high for FHB, investors are holding off and many can't get finance. The higher end is still selling well. I expect this to show in the REINZ figures released next week, average and median prices will still be up, the HPI may well be flat.

by No Moa | 13th Dec 21, 5:58pm 1639371526

The higher end is always the last money to leave in a housing bubble, as cashed up second time buyers are still in the market. The lower end leaves first, after 4 - 6 months this has a flow on effect on potential second home buyers who cannot sell to move up the ladder

by Squishy | 13th Dec 21, 10:36am 1639344995

Superb. I expect low rates and border reopening will give the next boost to property through the summer and into early next year.

by Mr Frank | 13th Dec 21, 10:41am 1639345260

Awesome. Can't wait.

Don't forget the 150k people with their freshly minted PR visas, which don't get me wrong I fully support and is the right thing considering the skills shortage.

by Whatwillhappen | 13th Dec 21, 10:58am 1639346323

Giving them their PR visas doesn't solve the skills shortage. It stops reverse migration which would make the skills shortage worse.

by Plutocracy | 13th Dec 21, 11:21am 1639347680

Why is New Zealand not capable of training or retaining skilled staff?

by Squishy | 13th Dec 21, 11:35am 1639348517

In Australia etc. the pay is better.

by Averageman | 13th Dec 21, 1:18pm 1639354709

Pay is better, work is less pressure, and in parts (Brisbane) housing is way cheaper.

by Mr Frank | 13th Dec 21, 1:29pm 1639355391

Why worry about pay when your house makes 200-300k a year, or 100k in an average year.

by Averageman | 13th Dec 21, 6:41pm 1639374098

Consider the reality to your fellow man/woman renter. They are sick of watching the security of their own house moving further away as debt speculation driven rent and prices exceed their earnings potential. Add in booming inflation and rising interest rates....

Make sense now...?

by JustAnOpinion | 13th Dec 21, 12:13pm 1639350828

We have not invested in doing so and there is an explicit desire not to have this happen for cost effectiveness.

Complex farm equipment training requires significant (mulit-million) investment in equipment and there are very few NZ suppliers. This would change with government support but when we can have the Irish lads come over in their winter and work for average wages we get the best of both worlds, access to skills as a fair price without the investment to get those skills.

What we have put effort into are the regulatory hurdles, licensing and health & safety compliance etc.

by RickStrauss | 14th Dec 21, 7:46am 1639421171

Greed and entitlement.

They must take on large debt to train then receive low wages, so we can have more.

by Fluffybunny | 13th Dec 21, 12:25pm 1639351545

No more immigration please. We need synergy with our available resources. Not continued gdp growth.

by delboy | 13th Dec 21, 11:03am 1639346632

The skyrocketing cost of building materials could also impact the number of new builds.

So next year we have borders opening and potential housing supply issues.

by Contrarian | 13th Dec 21, 11:13am 1639347198

It is the wise person who buys a built house and not gamble on a new build with cost/time over runs. No wonder the prices of built houses are going up.

by Averageman | 13th Dec 21, 1:17pm 1639354666

Its for the new house debt based tax rinsing....

by Whatwillhappen | 13th Dec 21, 1:18pm 1639354736

Yep. We dodged a bullet. Hedged and bought a recent build (under 10 y/o). Very grateful.

by Sluggy | 13th Dec 21, 10:39am 1639345160

It really is looking more and more like a game of monopoly. Build them Hotels (thems the red ones) and up the rent... Do not pass go do not collect 200,000

by bw | 13th Dec 21, 10:53am 1639346010

The Inventor of Monopoly designed the game to reveal the dangers of land-grabbing, but we all learned the wrong lesson from it....the game could play under two different sets of rules. The “monopolist” rules (which resemble the modern version of the game) set the end goal of building monopolies and “crushing” opponents, while the “anti-monopolist” rules rewarded all the players who generated wealth.

https://allthatsinteresting.com/elizabeth-magie-inventor-of-monopoly

by Carlos67 | 13th Dec 21, 10:57am 1639346271

Its been one hell of a ride Sluggy, you just needed a house and every month when you passed go you got thrown $30K out of thin air.

by CourtJester | 13th Dec 21, 11:35am 1639348527

Also, everyone gets free money every turn, printed by the bank out of thin air... but it keeps trickling up to the biggest asset holders.

by genericposter23 | 13th Dec 21, 11:18am 1639347497

Again... All the recent talk about softening in house prices... I'll believe it when I actually see it.

As I've confessed before, admittedly reached the end of my tether last year, took my savings out of my account in frustration and bought a rental out of an anger at this current administration's disdain towards us savers and honest hard work.

I see that property alone has gone up 4 times faster than I can ever earn as a software developer and that's even before accounting for the Tax man coming to take his take off of my salary.

COVID-19 response aside, this current government I feel deserves all the scorn and admonishment they can get for their unmitigated failure to act on this issue.

My main longer term concern is the devastating social effects of such financial inequality for which we're already seeing. Not only do I feel this is wrong, but I feel it is deeply dividing and damaging for NZ society in the longer run.

On a side note - I noticed there's now a sub reddit called "HousingProtestNZ"

by Te Kooti | 13th Dec 21, 11:19am 1639347566

We need a rolling tape like a stock market ticker so we can watch the wealth created daily live, Monthly updates is just so 1990's. Something like this for every suburb in NZ live and scrolling...

Remuera $1,989,755 (+.02%), Grey Lynn $1,566,934 (+.04%), Thames, $862,558 (+.07%).....

by bw | 13th Dec 21, 11:50am 1639349435

Well written.

To repeat.

I have NO PROBLEM with anyone doing anything they like with their own money; surplus funds accumulated as a result of some sort of productive endeavour (your software engineering, for instance), but once our whole economy and lifestyle depends upon speculative debt, and not productive enterprise, something has gone terribly wrong.

Using speculative debt to continually plunder the work efforts of those who come after us - worse, encourage them, too, to take on speculative debt as the only avenue left to 'make themselves rich' is the road to social chaos. It may look good, for a while, until one sunny day, it doesn't.

I have lived in places where we 'felt safe' in a gated house; itself within a gated community with armed entry guards on the only access point. The house having its own safe-room with no windows and solid concrete walls; with the garden itself surrounded by a stand-alone electrified razor-wire system. That's what happens when those who have nothing to lose come to take something; anything, from you. And if we aren't careful, that's coming here.

by moneyfornothing | 13th Dec 21, 1:06pm 1639354015

Totally understand we did the same and bought an investment property a year ago. We should be wealthier as we have increased our wages over the last 10 years but instead were lacking behind because we didn't own any investment properties and the home we own while has gone up has not gone up as much as the next level up and so we lost out on the gains in property in that respect too.

The property prices that may fall slightly will be all the townhouses being developed. There'll still be rises as people wish to get out of these into a stand alone house.

by Whatwillhappen | 13th Dec 21, 1:24pm 1639355045

You've locked in at least a decade's worth of compound interest in a single year. Why not crystallise it and let someone else own it? Then everyone wins.

by Yvil | 13th Dec 21, 5:42pm 1639370564

Moneyfornothing, please don't listen to Whatwillhappen's terrible advice

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 21, 8:54pm 1639382071

We don't know if it's terrible do we? House prices may crash 20-30% next year for all we know.

And there's a whole lot of headwinds for investors. Putting aside whether prices fall or not, unless they are rising a lot then property investing is a fool's game now.

More than ever, investors buying today need decent capital gains for it to pay off. I wouldn't be confident of decent gains being realised from here, I reckon we are heading the way of Japan.

But that's just my view, I could be right or Yvil could be right. Only time will tell.

by live4ever | 13th Dec 21, 11:11am 1639347083

Looking forward to seeing last week's auction clearance rates and someone doing a breakdown analysis of type of sales. I still feel the rise in prices is due to bottom end of the market stalling substantially while the impact of that has not yet trickled through to middle and upper segments.

by JJS | 13th Dec 21, 12:24pm 1639351461

Yes - it seems that investors are sitting on the sidelines. Also, I have had two agents tell me that buyers in the $1.5m - $3m are finding it a lot harder to get finance and many of these houses are passing in. People in the $5m+ range seem to be the hungriest to snap up new listings. If only the top end is selling it certainly drags up average prices.

by EpsomArtsandCrafts | 13th Dec 21, 2:12pm 1639357950

Ever pulled the handbrake on at 50kmh? Thats going to be the impact of the new lending rules and interpretations. (or perhaps its a misinterpretation of the new lending rules?)

by bw | 13th Dec 21, 12:27pm 1639351648

But who would be stupid enough to do that at 200 kph? Because that's the speed we're travelling at the moment, and no one - no one, wants to touch the brakes, because just like you - they know what will happen if they do. And just like you, they know what will happen if they don't.

by Just Some Advice | 13th Dec 21, 12:13pm 1639350815

All this fuss about shelter. Such a glorious economy has raised the quality of life and decreased the cost of living.

by blobbles | 13th Dec 21, 12:44pm 1639352699

Oh dear, it's all going to end in tears. Pity the FHBs that have bought in the last year or two, it looks like when it crashes, it's going to be very, very messy.

by Mr Frank | 13th Dec 21, 1:30pm 1639355453

It won't crash, govt will bail out. Don't you worry.

by company of heroes | 13th Dec 21, 2:22pm 1639358561

It doesn't work like that here in New Zealand. If you can't pay off your mortgage here, your bank will mortgage sale your house. If it pays off your mortgage, then all good. If it doesn't, you will have to carry the rest of the mortgage for rest of your life. Govt will not bail you out. They can't even bail out people's savings when it happens. However, I don't they will allow it happen, but not allowing it happen doesn't mean that they can actually completely prevent it from happening. Just because you haven't seen it happen personally doesn't mean it won't happen. Don't be naive...

by RickStrauss | 14th Dec 21, 7:51am 1639421495

Well...it happened during COVID. Two tier welfare to keep mortgage payments going okay, and massive Reserve Bank efforts to keep house prices up.

by Contrarian | 13th Dec 21, 7:44pm 1639377851

How exactly will this expected Govt bail out work ? Will it give support to Banks which will be affected by the failed mortgages or will it give money directly to the borrowers to pay off the Banks ? If it does the former, then the public won't benefit. As happened during the last bail out world wide. Only the rich got richer.

May be in the future, the voters can force the Government through their MPs to pay off the loans of the borrowers ?

I am dreaming, right ?

by 7jai | 13th Dec 21, 1:31pm 1639355486

Will believe it when I see it. I've heard this for decades, and I haven't seen any "crash" you speak of. Even the 2008 Lehman Brother crash which caused a correction mainly in the US, bounced back within a matter of years. If you ask anyone if a similar "crash" occurred, would they buy in. The answer would be absolutely knowing that it will just go back up later on and people can grab things at a discount.

The fundamental question we should ask ourselves is why is housing so a popular investment? Probably because it's tangible and nothing else compares to it. Also, with the NZ economy solely dependent on housing, the government will never let it fall to anything close to a "crash".

by Brock Landers | 13th Dec 21, 1:36pm 1639355808

When the correction arrives, it will be because the government is unwilling or unable to prevent it.

by DTRH | 13th Dec 21, 8:39pm 1639381144

With inflation on the up all over the world the US fed will have to raise rates or USD will become worthless, rates will continue to raise here this will cause huge problems as debt levels are so high when you see a 3 bedroom I bathroom old rundown house in papakura going for just under a million you know something is wrong and the shit will hit the fan soon.

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 21, 9:08pm 1639382884

'Otara Millionaires Club' (OMC) now a reality!

by JimmyJames | 13th Dec 21, 1:27pm 1639355263

New Zealand has the highest number of savvy investors per capita in the world, I just wonder if it is possible to be too savvy.

by Nifty1 | 13th Dec 21, 1:59pm 1639357182

To the moon 🚀 courtesy of RBNZ & Govt...

by tomyam | 13th Dec 21, 2:51pm 1639360269

God darn. That's a lot of avocado us millenials won't get to eat to save the deposit for.

180k x 0.2 = 36,000 deposit

36k/ $20 each avocado on toast cost = 1800 avocado on toast in 1 year

1800 / 365 = 4.9 avocado on toast per day that we don't get to eat to save up.

by Clementé | 13th Dec 21, 3:41pm 1639363300

They are all so entitled and malnourished

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 21, 9:02pm 1639382577

Aren't avocados one of the few things that have heavily deflated in price, haha.

Tony Alexander will need to think of another disingenuous reason why FHBs can't afford to buy their first home!

by RickStrauss | 14th Dec 21, 7:53am 1639421587

Have to think of new lies to avoid the truth, indeed.

by CWBW | 13th Dec 21, 5:04pm 1639368287

There's still room for upward valuation.

While the country is desperate to spend their holidays over the next 8 weeks, serious buyers should recognise the opportunity in the break.

When the country returns, they will pay the premium for their holiday absence.

Be quick!

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 21, 9:05pm 1639382756

Tell us, why do you still think there's room for 'upward valuation'.

What's the basis for that opinion, as it's contrary to pretty much every commentator out there, even ultra-bull Yvil has said price rises will stop dead, that it's the end of the bull run.

by Yvil | 13th Dec 21, 10:21pm 1639387276

"ultra bull" LOL, well that view has paid off very handsomely for many, many years. But yes I do think the party is coming to a close in 2022

by No Moa | 13th Dec 21, 6:12pm 1639372344

Has anyone experienced or remembered what negative sentiment in a property market feels like, we haven't had this in NZ for a while, the price of orchards during PSA is one. If you can imagine the fear and dread and seeing prices creep down and everyone sitting on the sidelines not wanting to get into the market as they are afraid to loose money, the fear that tightening up of lending creates.

by Averageman | 13th Dec 21, 6:32pm 1639373524

GFC, Dot Com crash, Asian Tigers credit crunch, and the biggy the 87 Share crash. Cash will be king.

Kaaarrrkkkk.

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 21, 9:00pm 1639382417

And you look at that history and think, heck we are well overdue a significant global financial crisis. Usually they occur once every 8-10 years.

by Mr Frank | 14th Dec 21, 9:56am 1639428975

NZ is knee deep in property. Mr Orr will come to the rescue. We can't afford a correction in NZ, all businesses would run out of cash.

by Feijoa | 13th Dec 21, 8:28pm 1639380490

Capital values and rents have risen to record numbers?

Labour truly is the Landlord's Best Friend.

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 21, 8:58pm 1639382291

They certainly are.

If they were the Labour of MJ Savage then they would be the landlord's worst enemy.

But because they aren't, don't build anywhere near enough houses, and introduce regulations with a number of unintended consequences, then they are indeed the landlord' s best friend.

by mikekirk29 | 14th Dec 21, 8:59am 1639425555

Listings of what, are rising?

Look at how many and proportion which are not built yet relative to ones being sold by an occupant. In Orewa for example on RE NZ we have 103 houses and townhouses. But only 35 are being sold by occupant.

This is sure sign that sellers are becoming increasingly chary. Add to that that buyers facing higher costs of borrowing and wages eroding from inflation. Reversion to 2019 sales levels is now well underway