The number of new homes completed in Auckland bounced back up to almost 1000 in October, although the longer term trend still shows a modest but steady decline.
Auckland Council issued 977 Code Compliance Certificates (CCCs) for new dwellings in October, up from 776 in September, after three straight months of declines.
CCCs are issued when a building is completed so are the best indicator of new housing supply.
The number of new homes being completed in Auckland has been rising steady for several years but appeared to stall in June, when 1532 CCCs were issued for the month.
They then declined to 1147 in July, 1173 in August and 776 in September, but it was unclear if the big drop in September was part of an ongoing decline in completions or just an effect of the Level 4 lockdown that took effect in mid-August, or a bit of both.
The strong bounce back to 977 dwelling completions in October suggests the lockdown accounted for most of the decline. However there is also growing evidence suggesting that the number of dwellings being completed in Auckland may have passed its peak.
The graph below shows the number of CCCs issued in Auckland each month on a rolling 12 month average basis, and this clearly shows the increase in monthly dwelling completions since May 2019.
However it also suggests that completions peaked in June this year and have been in a slow but steady decline since.
The November figures will be critical to confirm if a slowdown in completions is occurring or not, because the construction sector should have fully hit its straps again after coming out of lockdown and the CCC numbers should give a firmer idea of where residential construction in Auckland is headed.
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Speaking to RNZ for an extended end-of-year interview, Ardern said she hoped 2022 would halt the recent "runaway increases in house price growth".
Asked directly whether she wanted prices to come back, Ardern said: "Yes."
"We need [the market] to stop heading in the direction it is," she said. "Even if you saw [prices] come away, in many cases it would be bringing [them] back to levels that we were at only a year or two ago."
Ardern stressed she did not want the market to collapse.
"The reason that we cannot afford to have a housing market collapse is because, of course, this is the most significant asset that most New Zealanders have."
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/12/housing-crisis-runaway-…
Ardern said she hoped 2022 would halt the recent "runaway increases in house price growth".
If only there was someone who could change the incentives that are causing this bullshit rather than hoping that things will fix themselves.
On the other hand they've already turned down a major eco-development looking for approval under UDA. Government say a lot of things, probably best to look at what they are actually doing rather than their announcements.
Sunfield?
Sounds lovely, but then you realise it's on flood prone land and right next to a pretty noisy airfield.
Well flooding isn't too hard to deal with. We've been living on flooding land since the dawn of civilization.
Construction is being delayed by lack of materials, if you want pink bats you get allocated a certain amount and when it's gone you have to wait for a new allocation. It's gotten to the point where price isn't a consideration because you just need to get the product. I'd be very surprised if this wasn't putting the brakes on construction.
According to a builder mate of mine, construction is definitely being held back by supply issues.
And intern, many will go broke due to price increases that they can not pass on to the owner, and extra labour costs to catch up, etc etc.
Anecdote- my neighbour's new build house has had practically nothing done on it since June. Mostly supply issues, but also workforce- builders take on more and more projects and each of their builds consequently slow down. If they overcommit they won't be able to log the milestones for payment and go belly up. My reckon for 2022 is a spate of building company collapses.
Completions down maybe, but to my eye more in the pipeline in suburban Auckland than I've ever seen.
Yeah I expect building to be buoyant out to late 2022, then it will fall away.
Look for building consent approval numbers to have dropped a lot by mid year. So disciplines such as architects, civil engineers, planners might start to see workloads declining by then.
But builders shouldn't feel the pain until late 2022 or early 2023
Yes, I think construction will go into a mini-downturn and some job losses, then immigration ramps up and any catchup achieved on construction will be lost overnight.
Yes I'm confused why we get multiple articles about completion numbers being down, when anyone on the ground will tell you completion rates are out the window due to material shortages, and there's so much work in the pipeline and not enough labour to do it.
These new builds have no impact, the asking price is touching the sky. There is no sign of cooling down forget about the price going back to pre Covid.
Property is the most valued possession for kiwis true but you cannot make it so expensive that the younger generation starts leaving the country considering they will never afford it in their lifetime in NZ.
Can someone make it clear to politicians food, clothing & housing is basic need of a human being?
Don't push people to the brink of leaving this country because not affording one of the basic needs and labour has only given statements and has not taken a single relevant step to control this madness.
Let them sleep in garages.
And let the people sleeping in their cars park in the garages too. Double the occupancy!
NZ citizens can go to Australia and compete with Aussies for jobs if they have the money to cover their travel, living and moving costs. There's a barrier to entry for most and this is at least $3-5K to get established whilst securing new work unless you've already got an online business generating tonnes of money already, have local connections or do some couchsurfing with mates. Most kiwis won't have this sort of money to do this or willing to do this and already trapped into the local system to the local purchasing power, housing and living costs. Moving overseas is not easy feat and needs commitment and for many, it's far easier to stay albeit how hard it is because of comfort and if one loses their job, WINZ has got your back.
If you are a professional you can easily find a job in Australia before you go and they may even pay for your moving costs. I suppose you are correct about some jobs but for the highly educated kiwis it’s no problem at all. Muldoon was completely wrong.
if you cant save 5K you wont have the skill set to survive out of NZ. So save yourself the headache.
AJ, just cool it. The brakes are on hard out. There is not much any color of Govt can do.
My error.
Material lead times & 5 weeks of level 4 would've slowed CC down. Industry expectation is for more of the same out to this time 2022. Pressure could come from the Chinese residential housing debt bubble reigning in foreign capital flows, new build supply surpassing demand, land, labour & material inflation dampening demand, rising rates, restrictive bank lending, knee jerk govt regulation in desperation to win votes....to mention a few. Oh low immigration. Any others? Gee its a long list. What are the stimulatory factors in 2022? NZ psyche of property, property, property, FOMO, RB dropping rates, rma reform.
Now the banks have stopped lending on property I'm not sure what to do with myself
The words of a very naive prime minster on a very baised news media. If she had half a clue she'd be on to it, but she (they) doesn't. Perhaps the creating & borrowing of 100 billion NZ$ might have something to do with it. You think? PS: And doubling the government's debt in the process. Thanks for nothing Jacinda.
Not sure where all this negative sentiment is coming from as most trades seem to be doing rather nicely. The Ag sector is doing very well and other than the covid there is very little to complain about. As far as the national debt goes we are way behind most countries. Why worry be happy, Hey you live in NZ not some place where people are dying to get out of.
Wrong John, just plain wrong John.
It sounded like ardern echoing luxons recent sentiments and matching him like it is her idea or at least not allowing National to create divergence. When it comes to it, it is more empty words from Labour.
That's good news for house prices.
In the words of Sharon Zollner, "All booms come to and end, just like all pregnancies don't go on forever"
And this has been one of the longest booms ever.
House prices in Ireland fell 55% after 2010, and still haven't regained that peak.
Don't say it can't happen here.
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