Housing market continued its buoyant run in May led by Auckland - REINZ

Property

New Zealand housing market had its best May sales volumes in three years with Auckland having its strongest May sales in five years

15th Jun 21, 9:37am by Greg Ninness

The housing market continued its recent strong run in May with sales volumes running at their highest level for the month of May in three years, and the national median selling price remaining near its record high.

According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand, 7,550 residential properties were sold in May, the highest number for the month of May in three years.

The strong sales result was led by the Auckland market where 2766 properties sold in May, the best result for that month in five years and up 3.7% compared to April.

Excluding Auckland, 4784 properties were sold across NZ in May, almost unchanged from the 4782 sold in April (the second interactive chart below shows the sales volume trends in all regions).

The national median selling price increased from $805,000 in April to $820,000 in May, just short of the record $825,000 median price achieved in March.

In Auckland the median price hit a new record of $1,148,000, up from $1,120,000 in April.

New record median prices were also set in the Auckland districts of Waitakere ($1,050,000) and Papakura ($900,000) and also in Taranaki ($550,000), Tasman ($850,000), and Canterbury ($582,000).

Median prices declined in May compared to April in six regions - Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Manawatu, Nelson, Marlborough and Otago (see the first interactive chart below for the median price movements in all regions).

"While some of the regions are starting to show signs of prices easing, which will be welcome news for locals who are looking to buy, it's hard to know whether this is a direct result of the 23 March announcements [changing the tax rules for residential investment properties] or just the usual winter slow down," REINZ Acting Chief Executive Wendy Alexander said.

"This is particularly true given that the Auckland market is still forging ahead, with another record median price seen in May.

"There are now only two districts in the Auckland region where the median house price is less than $1 million - Franklin ($822,000) and Papakura ($900,000).

"Even Waitakere has exceeded the $1 million mark with a new record of $1,050,000 in May," Alexander said.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

Median price - REINZ

Select chart tabs

Source: REINZ

Volumes sold - REINZ

Select chart tabs

Source: REINZ

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222 Comments

by house hunter | 15th Jun 21, 9:40am 1623706847

Auckland HPI also hit a new record high in May. Crazy times.

by taimaiakka0 | 15th Jun 21, 10:57am 1623711471

Mr Orr has been successfull in delaying and uses every trick to support the ponzi.

Government passes on to RBNZ and rbnz to government but why the @#$& .....were voted. One of the major promise was to curb the ponzi....

IS JACINDA ARDEN STILL IN NZ OR LEFT FOR UN.

If in NZ, is she waiting for another open home near her house to witness before acting.

by npc | 15th Jun 21, 11:50am 1623714647

Jacinda Ardern is an empty talking head. Did you really think she would fix this?

by Foxglove. | 15th Jun 21, 12:05pm 1623715510

She ain’t going anywhere. Because if she goes so too does Labour. Now that could be something of a strategy for the opposition, come to think of it.

by tothepoint | 15th Jun 21, 12:14pm 1623716078

Just two years ago (2019), the DGM predicted that Auckland house prices would fall through the floor by 2021.......

DGM now facing the reality that their predictions are trash - complete and utter codswallop.

Yet, not a single DGM has accepted responsibility. Alarming!

TTP

by Sluggy | 15th Jun 21, 12:12pm 1623715933

Are we using squid or mullet today ?

by Lanthanide | 15th Jun 21, 12:22pm 1623716576

What are they 'accepting responsibility' for, exactly?

by tothepoint | 15th Jun 21, 12:35pm 1623717316

Hi Lanthanide,

For being about as far off the mark with their predictions as one could imagine and misleading (and deceiving) a multitude of people - including first home buyers.

I'd like to see just one of the DGM take responsibility for the error of their ways. That they refuse to do so is downright appalling.

TTP

by lowercase capitalist | 15th Jun 21, 12:45pm 1623717943

> misleading (and deceiving) a multitude of people - including first home buyers.

If people are making their decisions based on the opinions of internet strangers thats on them. I don't see that 'DGMs' have anything to apologize for.

by tothepoint | 15th Jun 21, 12:55pm 1623718522

You being a thinly-disguised DGM, LC, I'm not too surprised.

TTP

by Foxglove. | 15th Jun 21, 12:56pm 1623718567

enlighten an elderly luddite, please someone, what the heck is a DGM?

by Averageman | 15th Jun 21, 1:01pm 1623718915

A Debt Grafting Middleman. Aka the risk taker for bank profit, or specuvestor.

by Kate | 15th Jun 21, 1:05pm 1623719114

Doom and Gloom Merchant.

by northman46 | 15th Jun 21, 1:25pm 1623720317

Which is funny, because all of TTP's comments fill me with gloom.

by muzled | 15th Jun 21, 3:47pm 1623728825

Gloom for humanity?

by Pragmatist | 15th Jun 21, 5:41pm 1623735676

ttp and humanity.. wheres the connection?

by lowercase capitalist | 15th Jun 21, 1:32pm 1623720776

I'm actively rooting for the cost of housing to come down, I'm not thinly veiling anything.

At this point hoping that prices continue to increase seems more like doom and gloom to me.

by donny11 | 15th Jun 21, 1:52pm 1623721966

Well put. The idea that lower housing prices is a negative thing is a mass delusion in NZ. Our island mentality has allowed this delusion to flourish.

by mfd | 15th Jun 21, 2:01pm 1623722517

You're not the only one. 90-95% of the country is either unaffected or benefits from house prices falling, it's just the minority of multiple property owners have an unfortunately loud voice. I already own my house and can afford the mortgage, it makes no difference to me if prices fall 20% - it just makes the country a better place.

by tothepoint | 15th Jun 21, 2:06pm 1623722788

Post-Covid, the whole world wants a slice of NZ. Internationally, we're considered one of the best countries to live in......

But our land is in fixed supply.

Expect house prices to be sustained.

TTP

by Crazy Horse | 16th Jun 21, 9:19am 1623791976

TTP et al .....before you head out to "spruik" more of that overpriced property, have a quick look at this from the USA ...... because with your scenarios of "never ending" price increases etc this is the road NZ will go down.... https://youtu.be/zxdx1buMRqk

by mfd | 15th Jun 21, 2:22pm 1623723722

Our land is technically in fixed supply, but with 5 million people we're hardly touching limits in terms of space. We have control of our borders, so we only have to let in the people we want to. Right now we're building far more houses than we are growing or importing households, if we can keep immigration reasonably low we'll catch up with the lack of supply in a few short years. Add in the potential for higher interest rates and it's very easy to see the possibility of falling house prices in our near future. There is no one-way bet.

by Foxglove. | 15th Jun 21, 2:11pm 1623723080

Salient point. If you are just an ordinary household living an ordinary lifestyle in an ordinary home with or without an ordinary mortgage none of this will affect you much. The tide rises & falls for all concerned and takes all with it across the board. Some advantage though of late with record low mortgage rates. Some disadvantage if looking to move up in property quality, the next one likely have stretched away a bit, pro rata.

by mfd | 15th Jun 21, 2:29pm 1623724188

Yep, no denying lower mortgage rates have helped existing homeowners. I've split the difference with overpayments and increasing my charitable donations.

I'd prefer not to have had that small windfall and for houses to still be affordable for FHBs without stretching themselves so thin. It's a personal and societal tragedy.

by the Joneses | 15th Jun 21, 2:40pm 1623724805

So long as you put to the back of your mind that your ordinary kids are going to have a lesser quality of life in one way or another.

by Foxglove. | 15th Jun 21, 3:02pm 1623726174

That thought though is a double edged sword. Don’t mean that as a criticism but today’s world is one of ever increasing tempo and that can lay a deadly trap for the over ambitious. That is those desperate to be up the social and status ladder and the honey trap for that is easy credit. There is merit, less self imposed pressure, for those that set their sights realistically and work to a sensible budget and activities. Bet they, and their children sleep better at night, fuelled or unfuelled. In the words of General Stilwell, Vinegar Joe, remember the higher the monkey climbs, the more you see his arse.

by Carlos67 | 15th Jun 21, 2:18pm 1623723503

Not entirely true TTP, I have clearly stated here at least 3 times that I screwed up in my prediction of a 20% drop in house prices due to Covid. I changed tac and got back into a house last year in September. I think you have to acknowledge however that the Governments around the world came to your rescue. I simply didn't factor in the level that the governments "Have got your back", nobody did really but once that was clear it was game on again.

by Fluffybunny | 15th Jun 21, 4:10pm 1623730256

To be fair, somewhat unpredictable times, coupled by an unprecedented fiscal response. Central banks over-compensating for a perception that the 2008/2009 response didn't go far enough. Doing whatever it takes to keep economic velocity sustained and debt payments made.

Yes property continues to rise in value via our present fiat system, but you would be silly to ignore the risk that such massive (potential) overvaluation can pose. Also the share scale of money now being created. Note that Some locations that crashed hard in 2008 have still not recovered to pre crash House price index levels.

Observing risk and planning accordingly relative to ur personal wealth and risk tolerance is not DGM, its just good investment advice. Anyone labeling absolute either which way is just promoting emotion.

by tothepoint | 15th Jun 21, 5:13pm 1623734030

My sincere apologies to you, Carlos. I was wrong.

Well done!

TTP

by Yvil | 15th Jun 21, 5:42pm 1623735763

True, well done Carlos, it will serve you well in the future to admit you were wrong. Note the vast majority of comments above do not however, instead finding excuses and deflecting the subject to avoid admitting being wrong

by CourtJester | 15th Jun 21, 2:57pm 1623725841

First of all, you're lying (knowing your history, probably intentionally) about "DGM not accepting responsibility".
Second, and more important point: THIS IS DOOM you muppet! Can't you see what's happening to this country and an entire generation of working class people? What's happening to productivity, the economy, mental health, the value of actual work... The total lack of respect for the people who are the backbone of the country (hello nurses, teachers, policemen etc.). THIS IS DOOM. A 50% house price crash would be just a return to what, 2017-2018?
You are clearly blinded and corrupted by greed.
Caste system in NZ looking more likely every day.

by HouseMouse | 15th Jun 21, 2:53pm 1623725628

Well put.100% right.
But TTP is one of those guys who doesn't care about the health of our wider society, now and in the future.

by printer8 | 15th Jun 21, 3:01pm 1623726081

Court Jester
I think I remember you claiming about a year ago that you could afford to buy a $1.5million home but were holding off in expectation of a correction when the reality is that the market has gone up by over 25%.
So not really a valid complaint in your case - just poor decision making on your part so suck it up.

by HouseMouse | 15th Jun 21, 3:06pm 1623726387

Your point is irrelevant to his point, and nasty.
Some of you guys don't seem to have an ounce of empathy or social conscience. Probably reflective of a society which is increasingly self interested.

by printer8 | 15th Jun 21, 3:14pm 1623726898

HouseMouse
I have posted numerous times regarding the difficulty faced by FHB.
However, Court Jester has to take responsibility when he makes a poor decision; that is neither irrelevant nor being nasty, but rather that he needs to face up and put his big boy pants on when he gets it wrong.

by CourtJester | 15th Jun 21, 3:17pm 1623727039

WTF is your point? Seriously? Take responsibility? What do you mean? Should I stop commenting because a prediction I made didn't turn out correct? What the hell is up with you two and responsibility? I take responsibility every day by not owning an asset that would have made 2x my annual income in a year. What else do you want me to do? Kneel before you and toothy and beg for forgiveness?

by Yvil | 15th Jun 21, 5:45pm 1623735923

The point is one can only make a better choice, once one has acknowledged having made a mistake. As long as one just stubbornly denies the mistake he/she will not make a better decision. That's the point

by al123 | 15th Jun 21, 5:59pm 1623736784

I think everyone who held off buying knows they've made a mistake by now, Yvil, given the way things turned out. (However given what every bank economist bar none were saying at the time, I think it was only a mistake to hold off in hindisght - things could have pretty easily gone the other way). No need to repeatedly rub it in.

by Yvil | 15th Jun 21, 7:16pm 1623741385

If a friend makes a mistake and you point out the mistake, you do it to help, not to "rub it in". If the friend feels aggrieved by the advice and thinks you're "rubbing it in" he's not ready to learn from his mistake and will repeat it.

by al123 | 15th Jun 21, 8:19pm 1623745146

Yes, but the commenter had already been told to 'suck it up', and 'put on his big boy pants' and had just explicitly stated he had made a prediction which didn't turn out to be correct which had cost him dearly. At that point, it doesn't seem like a particularly friendly thing to do to jump in and chide him for making a mistake. Pointing out a mistake which someone knows they've made (and has been repeatedly insulted about already) isn't the same as giving useful advice.

by printer8 | 15th Jun 21, 10:25pm 1623752719

al123
Last year Court Jester made lots of wild unsupported extreme claims and it’s not surprising that it has cost him.
Unfortunately he is part of a group on this site (of which he was one of the most vocal) who make unsubstantiated comments, burying their head in the sand by outright rubbishing of bank and other economists without critically discussing what they have to say, avoid considering the intent of RBNZ and Government decisions by only looking at single self-interest consequences, and by simply slagging off those heading RBNZ and Government.
What I am pushing for is that there is more rationale and substantiated discussion and debate. While there is no certainty of making the right decision, one can increase the likelihood of that by at least rationally considering and debating information rather than making the wishful/unsubstantiated claims.
If that could occur it would help more in making more sound decisions.
Rather than defending those making the unsubstantiated comments, your efforts could be more productive for all involved if you were to start to call for that more rational discussion and debate. That would be great to see.
If Court Jester is upset that he made the wrong choice, I hope asks himself why and could he have done better on the information available, and that he learns from that.

by Foxglove. | 15th Jun 21, 6:04pm 1623737076

Ah yes Yvil, might have this wrong but some time ago a fellow from your country of origin I think, advised me over dinner while there, if you first climb the wrong mountain, you cannot climb the right mountain, until you climb down the first mountain.

by Yvil | 15th Jun 21, 7:11pm 1623741060

That was a very wise man! love the saying

by Passerby | 15th Jun 21, 6:52pm 1623739931

I genuinely don’t understand what you need to take responsibility for? The property investors were specifically given a huge boost by the government and RBNZ by the way of completely ripping the LVR requirements, insane OCR. This was done in the guise of boosting business lending while almost every drop went into housing. To make matters worse, tax payers (us) pay them accomodation supplement that pays the rent. Do you remember the South African brothers moaning about the removal of interest deductions when they bought a house for the parents, got accomodation supplement for their parents that was paying for the house. Basically the tax payer was paying for his house purchase which will appreciate in value while he claims interest as an expense and not pay any taxes. When there are people scheming left, right and centre, honest people have a very low chance of making it. To get ahead, we need to learn to cream and scheme.

You think with the rate of price rise against income and all the cries for implementing DTI and removal of IO loans will be listened to and implemented but with our government, Orr and opposition all being property investors they care about how this affects their pockets and that alone than what happens to society’s social fabric. The fact that multiple property owners bully and harass you who don’t own a home show how far our society has degraded. It is really sad to see. At this rate NZ slums won’t be far behind. The only ones needing to take responsibility for this is RBNZ, the government, the opposition and the ever greedy lot.

by CourtJester | 15th Jun 21, 3:15pm 1623726915

Yep, the infamous "you were wrong about something else so everything you're saying is wrong" fallacy. Some 'prominant' members of this comment section keep punishing people for making incorrect predictions. You make a prediction (which is by definition not a certainty) which turns out incorrect due to whatever reasons -> Doomed to be the punching bag of some a**holes here for the next decade.
My comment will probably get removed due to using that word, but moderators should take note: these trolls are more harmful to this community and intelligent discussions than any swear word you could come up with.

by Yvil | 15th Jun 21, 5:46pm 1623736015

HouseMouse there's nothing nasty in P's point, he makes a respectful valid point. It's not the first time you call a comment "nasty" when you don't agree with it. Having different a opinion doesn't make one "nasty"

by Carlos67 | 16th Jun 21, 8:54am 1623790497

Yawn lots of pointless comments here. The fact is many of the commentators here were and still are not in a financial position to buy a house anyway so what's the point of having the argument about "Missing out" ? The people that financially could get into the marked did and those that still can are still getting into the market.

by CourtJester | 15th Jun 21, 3:09pm 1623726565

Ah yes, the always right printer8... Who told me back then to buy. Then a month later expressed his worries about all the people who just got into the market. Hindsight is 20/20 my dude, and on top of that it's easy to be correct if you predict both X and the opposite of X.
With mortgage rate increases now officially on the horizon, I'm glad I didn't borrow a crapton of money. There's a huge difference between paying back $1 million+ at 3% vs 5%, as many people will find out next year.

by printer8 | 15th Jun 21, 3:26pm 1623727591

Court Jester
Just as you made a financial decision based on your outlook then, do the same if that is your outlook now.
Just don't moan and cry if it turns out you find you have made another poor financial decision. That is life.

by CourtJester | 15th Jun 21, 3:29pm 1623727792

You two are insane. Expressing concerns about the future of this country (and society, and the less-fortunate) is moaning and crying? For real? Do you think this is right? Do you think everyone should just stay quiet and never discuss the problems this shitshow creates (created)?

by printer8 | 15th Jun 21, 4:00pm 1623729627

Court Jester
What I think is that there are a number of posters on this site making wild and extreme unsubstantiated wishful predictions and comments rather than "making (sound) financial decisions" (interest.co byline). An example of this is the consistently rubbishing of bank and other economists including RBNZ. For some posters this site has simply become a place to whine and blame.
Yes, it is tough on FHB and it appears that the future is going to get tougher as the market is predicted to be flattish (RBNZ, Treasury and Government) while mortgage interest rates are likely to increase (bank economists). Any suggest I make as to being prudent is not flip flopping.
There are two issues that really need to be separated out in that - firstly, is and why is that likely, and secondly, what are the implications for one's self.
Let me know if you want a rationale discussion about that.

by CourtJester | 15th Jun 21, 4:04pm 1623729899

Hah. Now you're suggesting a rational discussion? After you dismissed all my concerns as whining, moaning and crying? No thanks.

by printer8 | 15th Jun 21, 4:15pm 1623730526

Court Jester
That's fine and not surprising. I have looked very hard to find rationale or supporting substance in your posts.
So, same old, same old from you then.

by al123 | 15th Jun 21, 4:36pm 1623731807

Printer8, if you read the actual commenting policy, as opposed to just the byline, you will see that:
"We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?"
So the view, which you've expressed multiple times, that the comments forum here should only consist of comments geared towards helping other people make sound financial decisions, is mistaken. The comments policy explicitly invites posts about relevant experiences, and about what SHOULD happen next as well about what MIGHT happen next.
So 'wishful predictions' are absolutely in line with the policy. Whether they are substantiated or not is, of course, up for robust debate. Comments that rising house prices are bad for NZ and it would be better if they dropped are absolutely in line with the policy. People describing their own experiences - including how difficult and stressful they find the current situation - are absolutely in line with the policy. People expressing disagreement with bank economists and the RBNZ are absolutely in line with the policy: "Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments".
You can always report comments you don't think are in line with the policy (for example, if you think people cross the line from robust disagreement with the RBNZ to abuse). But your constant attempts to dictate what should and should not be discussed in the comments section based solely on the website byline are getting tiresome.

by printer8 | 15th Jun 21, 4:47pm 1623732431

al123
So you don't like me dictating what should be discussed, but you are dictating to me. .
Sorry, confusing. :)

by al123 | 15th Jun 21, 4:57pm 1623733066

I don't know what's confusing about it - you have repeatedly appealed to the site byline to make the claim that people should not make certain types of comments. I've directed you to the comments policy, which explicitly states what sorts of comments are welcome, and shown that the comments you are objecting to actually do fit within the comments policy. It seems that the rational thing for you to do is to stop objecting to comments on the grounds that they don't match the byline. It's logic dictating that, not me!

by Passerby | 15th Jun 21, 7:00pm 1623740415

Al, please may I ask you to save your breath for something more worthwhile? It is just not worth it.

by Nzdan | 15th Jun 21, 3:56pm 1623729375

Even 0.5% increase on $800k = $4k per year or $76 per week in extra interest payments.

by JustAnOpinion | 15th Jun 21, 3:42pm 1623728550

Hardly, he took a risk based assessment and was wrong. Nothing poor about that decision making process. Admittedly the basis of the assessment might have been off but there was plenty of counter signals at the time to pay attention to.

I could not see what was changing so with nothing changing stayed in the market and have made completely undeserved paper gains. Anyone saying they saw the market go up 25% in a pandemic is lying.

by mfd | 15th Jun 21, 3:48pm 1623728925

Any mistakes he's made in the past are quite irrelevant to the point that sky-high house prices are bad for this country. This comment is completely uncalled for.

by printer8 | 15th Jun 21, 2:46pm 1623725199

TTP
"Just two years ago (2019), the DGM predicted that Auckland house prices would fall through the floor by 2021......."
Why go back two years?
No names to save embarrassment, but here is a selection from posters this April just a couple of months ago:
"If you absolutely have to buy, then put in an offer 20% below asking and be prepared to walk away."
AND
'I reckon about 40% below asking".
AND
"It’ll fall off a cliff coming into winter".
AND
"Why offer 20% below asking price....when you could wait another six months and get 40% off? Or wait further? This could turn into a bloodbath pretty quickly".
You would have thought that a lesson was learnt in March 2020. One poster has been calling bubble burst for over six years now in which time the REINZ Index has doubled.
Bottom line is that one can't be consistently guessing wrong and keep making calls of bubble burst and then either criticise those who read reports to get a feel for the market direction, or complain when holding off only to find that prices have increased.

by the Joneses | 15th Jun 21, 3:15pm 1623726905

I think they are hoping some sense comes back into our country. Looking at other similar historical economic patterns from other countries. Maybe some feel they are doing their bit to try help cool the market, who knows.
Any of those reasons are more noble than than talking up the market with a personal investment that exists only to sap wealth from productive enterprise while hastening the eventual unravelling of our society.

by printer8 | 15th Jun 21, 4:12pm 1623730356

Jonesy
There has not been a lack of sense in RBNZ and Government action. The decisions of the past year have made sense from wider economic and employment perspective as intended, but yes at cost to FHB along with others (e.g elderly with term deposits).
The reality is that the posters on this site are neither effectively "doing their bit to try to cool the market" nor "talking the market up". Whatever is posted here is not going to influence the market.
The byline and purpose of this site is to "Helping you make financial decisions".
To meet that, the posts should be providing substantiated reasons as to what is happening in the market and why, and what are the implications for one's self.
Unfortunately that has been lost.

by Te Kooti | 15th Jun 21, 3:19pm 1623727169

Hahaha, I remember those!! What about Retired Poppy, he was true to his name at least!!

by youngdumbandfullofit | 15th Jun 21, 4:14pm 1623730457

What exactly are the DGM claiming responsibility for? Aren't bears or bulls typical of any market? Or do you expect to see bulls claim responsibility for falls and bears to claim responsibility for rises?

by printer8 | 15th Jun 21, 4:37pm 1623731879

ydb
If I am a bear, I have no intention of claiming any responsibility for the strength of the market. (However, hopefully I can give reasons for it).
What was being asked for is that there be some acceptance/acknowledgement that continual unsubstantiated/wishful claims of a bubble burst made over the past few years have not been correct.
For me, to do so could lead to substantiated and more meaningful discussion.
Posts such as "I reckon about 40% below asking (price)" just two months ago is unsubstantiated, was contrary to RBNZ and bank economists (who are consistently ridiculed), and for those who put up substantiated comments they are shouted down.

Note: I stand by my current view first posted last November that the then current increases in the market were unsustainable and that the market would cool in 2021 and be flattish for some period of time (with possibility of some minor correction) so I'm not talking the market up. The rationale for that was that RBNZ would not undo there actions to nullify what they had tried to achieve over the past year for the wider economy, but it did increase the likelihood of a severe correction which would posing risks to the wider economy.

by Small Kev | 15th Jun 21, 9:44am 1623707063

With shortage of materials and trades this will carry on for a while. The new built a are going to be expensive which offsets the tax deduction advantage.

by Luke83 | 15th Jun 21, 9:47am 1623707276

Nice, I'll take that thanks

by Lord Dowding | 15th Jun 21, 10:04am 1623708274

Don’t worry Mike will be on here soon to give us all a bunch of DGM statistics

by tothepoint | 15th Jun 21, 12:58pm 1623718688

Yep - Mike will continue his relentless search to find a tiny cloud in the silver lining.

TTP

by CourtJester | 15th Jun 21, 2:46pm 1623725164

Silver lining? You can't be serious. Silver lining for the asset owning class? Yes, someone will buy a new Aston Martin (having done zero work to deserve it) while a dozen families will get left behind forever. If this is not doom and gloom in your opinion, then you clearly have some sadistic tendencies.

by HouseMouse | 15th Jun 21, 2:54pm 1623725680

Wonder if he's paid all his fines yet.

by xingmowang | 15th Jun 21, 9:51am 1623707519

A person gradually purchased 10 properties from 2009 to 2015 for about 700k each or a loan size of around 6 million dollars.

Today, without any hard work and active mortgage repayment, the same person is now having each property worth about 2 million (or 20 million in total) and the same 6 million mortgage.

Just cream it. Life is good.

by northman46 | 15th Jun 21, 9:56am 1623707803

Incoming speculator meltdown about how it's such a hard "job" and they're a bold risk taker and they're providing a service and the government is unfairly making it harder for them to cream it.

Though maybe those sort of commentators are exclusive to Stuff.

by J.C. | 15th Jun 21, 10:01am 1623708100

Simple stuff really. Just expand the money supply. And there's been no equivalent loss in the purchasing power of NZD (except possibly for houses). The most amazing wealth creation mechanism in history.

by Jonny.Foe | 15th Jun 21, 12:17pm 1623716279

It's the credit supply (driven by buyer confidence and low interest rates) that has fueled the housing market. Increases in Govt spending (additions to money supply) is almost irrelevant in comparison.

by J.C. | 15th Jun 21, 1:08pm 1623719321

It's the credit supply (driven by buyer confidence and low interest rates) that has fueled the housing market. Increases in Govt spending (additions to money supply) is almost irrelevant in comparison

You don't understand how money is created through the lending mechanism.

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 10:19am 1623709191

We have bought residential properties but always just exclusive 'investor only' category. Govt should allow more multi home properties to be subdivided. That would increase the supply of homes as well as allow the capital gains to spread further. If you think this is a niche issue you are wrong, there are tens of thousands of homes across the motu (country)

by linklater01 | 15th Jun 21, 2:17pm 1623723424

xing,

"Today, without any hard work". A decent definition of a parasite.

by JustAnOpinion | 15th Jun 21, 3:45pm 1623728724

Parasite? Off whom are they feeding? Is it their fault others don't have access to the funds required? Should they apologise, perhaps recognise their historic abuses? Hugs all round?

by JustAnOpinion | 15th Jun 21, 3:46pm 1623728761

by Fluffybunny | 15th Jun 21, 4:14pm 1623730463

Leverage is great.. until its not.

by RWC | 15th Jun 21, 9:56am 1623707779

Jacinda and other Greenies can suck on this. The housing market just gave them a big middle finger!

by northman46 | 15th Jun 21, 9:58am 1623707917

Which implies you believe Jacinda has been trying to stop the frenzy? Ha! Good one.

Concerned thrown. Do nothing. Rinse and repeat.

by Dave Moderato | 15th Jun 21, 10:14am 1623708889

The Ardern Govt has only created additional shortages across the housing market. Which leads to higher rents and house prices. A better outcome would have been produced, if they had done nothing instead.

by Pragmatist | 15th Jun 21, 10:46am 1623710807

Created additional shortages? Did they do a bunch of demolitions?

by Dave Moderato | 15th Jun 21, 11:10am 1623712251

Shortages are across the board. This is the cause of the increased demand, pushing up rents, house prices and building supplies/ construction costs up. Labour don't appear to understand the relationship between supply and demand. Which determines prices.

by Pragmatist | 15th Jun 21, 11:15am 1623712541

You seem to have cause and effect mixed up "Shortages are across the board. This is the cause of the increased demand," No, increased demand is the cause of shortages, not vice versa.

by Small Kev | 15th Jun 21, 10:30am 1623709848

Exactly right, Jacinda has actually made the situation worse and she will live with the unintended consequences.

by ex agent | 15th Jun 21, 10:49am 1623710961

She will not lose one minutes sleep over rising prices . All she is concerned about is keeping power and you do that by keeping voters happy.

by Foxglove. | 15th Jun 21, 10:54am 1623711296

Not for a while though SK. I mean rising prices only came to her attention when the house across the road sold.

by stuart786786 | 15th Jun 21, 10:42am 1623710573

"Housing market continued its buoyant run in May led by Auckland - REINZ"

Everyone knew as monthly data coming out every month was UP, March was up, than April was up, told to wait for May data and now even May is up, What data are this Orr's and Robertson's waiting.

Quarterly data but if monthly data is up, how could quarterly data be different - This was just their tactics to play with time and MR ORR LIED ON PUBLIC PLATFORM THAT HE HAS DATA THAT SUGGESTS THAT HOUSING MARKET IS COOLING.

Want to take no action on ponzi though not acceptable but is fine as he can dictate being governor BUT lying is not acceptable being public figure to suit his vested biased interest.

If Mr Orr said in May ( I think he did) than can say is a liar as data proves otherwise but are SHAMELESS creature and such expose will not make any difference to them.

by Sluggy | 15th Jun 21, 12:25pm 1623716740

So the only people who are concerned are greenies and Jacinda ? What we have is an overly monetised basic need (shelter) that is dividing a nation, the idiots in successive governments refuse to turn off the tap. Pretty sure you dont have to be a greenie or labour supporter to see where this is going. Maybe a wee bit empathetic would help.

by diy-guy | 15th Jun 21, 10:32am 1623709965

Is it just me or does everyone else just focus on the HPI? I find the median price changes are a nice and easy way to look at sales data but any serious market watchers should be following the HPI as their go-to. FWIW, I'm seeing value and good upside in Christchurch, followed by Nelson at the moment.

by HouseMouse | 15th Jun 21, 10:04am 1623708242

Labour Government = Massive Failure.

by JimboJones | 15th Jun 21, 10:09am 1623708580

The big failure was not to build when we had capacity to do so - that was National.
I wonder what else you think they can do? I doubt we can build much faster, they have implemented tax changes (no CGT but brightline pretty close), what more?

by Squishy | 15th Jun 21, 10:17am 1623709054

When KiwiBuild was announced we still had capacity. In fact the point was to underwrite development throughout the economic cycle to try to reduce supply constraints. Unfortunately the government ran head-long into the issues developers do trying to build, Zoning. We've always had the capacity to grow the construction sector but not the land.

by HouseMouse | 15th Jun 21, 10:17am 1623709038

- Changed the legislation governing the RBNZ, in their first term.
- Actually started delivering on their promises of building much more housing, what happened to all their talk about prefabrication?
-Provided much more funding to community housing providers to enable more shared equity housing to be built
- introduced a CGT rather than scuttling the idea early in their first term.

I am certainly no National apologist. They were awful. But Labour are pretty much as bad.
I voted Green.

by Lanthanide | 15th Jun 21, 12:30pm 1623717003

Prefab always seems to be a problem of scale. It has to be at a big scale to really be viable, but building it to that scale in the first place is difficult because banks generally won't lend on prefab housing (for good reason), and so it's pretty much impossible to be a small pre-fab builder, thus ensuring no big pre-fab builders exist.

- introduced a CGT rather than scuttling the idea early in their first term.

Winston's doing, whom without they wouldn't be in government anyway. Partly was due to all the restrictions they put on the working group though, which really tied their hands in what they were allowed to propose.

by Foxglove. | 15th Jun 21, 12:43pm 1623717808

A couple of years ago or so, Westpac announced an in house package of finance, for land and flat pack type of housing construction. Read it up a bit and looked plausible/viable. Obviously not so. Nothing about it today.

by HouseMouse | 15th Jun 21, 1:20pm 1623720023

That is why the government should do it, to get the scale to crank up their building programme.
I am pretty sure it was part of the grand plan on first coming to power, but it's gone off the radar. Possibly because they are useless at delivering anything.

by Sluggy | 16th Jun 21, 9:40am 1623793235

I have friends buying one for a bach. 350k for 144m2 sited. Obviously need to connect all the services etc. That has 4 bedrooms and 3 loos.

They are out there now, cost effective and they look good.

by Dave Moderato | 15th Jun 21, 10:17am 1623709061

National are not in Govt. These recent increases are occurring under Labour. And I'd add these increases are vastly higher than they were under any other Govt in living memory.

by JimboJones | 15th Jun 21, 10:50am 1623711035

Well they can't change it overnight (not without something very radical like removing RBNZ independence and making us a banana republic). Making up for National allowing excessive immigration without building houses and infrastructure will take some time, don't you agree?

by Advisor | 15th Jun 21, 11:11am 1623712310

Making up for National allowing excessive immigration without building houses and infrastructure will take some time

You're joking, eh?
NZ's net migration hit record highs on its annual rolling average in March 2020 hitting 94k just prior to the border closure, only 7k of whom were NZ citizens. We acquired a 9.7k net migrants just in those 25 days of March 2020.

The highest this number got to under National was ~65k.

https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/international-migration-…

by HouseMouse | 15th Jun 21, 11:11am 1623712311

That's something I forgot in my list of Labour failures.
Another one would be not getting rid of urban growth boundaries as they promised, although I am skeptical on the value of that.
It was a promise though, and one which they sold as having big benefits.

by Lanthanide | 15th Jun 21, 12:31pm 1623717089

And compare the rate of building at the time it peaked in March 2020, with the rate of building when it peaked under National.

by donny11 | 15th Jun 21, 11:12am 1623712349

Blaming national af this point is delusional. The current govt has a majority. That is where the buck stops.

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 10:24am 1623709446

JJ thats national bashing uninformed bullshiy

by JimboJones | 15th Jun 21, 10:54am 1623711288

So you think running immigration at high levels and not ensuing enough houses were being built doesn't deserve some bashing?
I agree both parties are at fault and Labour were silly to not impose the CGT, but other than that I can't see how the government can do more. We just need to wait until the supply catches up, which might not be that far away.

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 11:00am 1623711616

This goes back to before JKs time... and yes you are wearing blinkers

by Pragmatist | 15th Jun 21, 11:06am 1623711979

No, its not, we clearly could have built faster under national - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/109587/number-new-homes-being-compl… that graph could have started higher and remained higher if national had encouraged building to keep up with the number of people being imported.

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 11:17am 1623712669

National took heaps of proactive steps to stimulate and create supply. Plus some actions they wanted to do got stymied by wanka Dunne, maybe his name should come up more often. The Auckland City councils pre amalgamation should cop a lot of flack. That is before you get to Helen Clark and the state of inertia under her administration... too interested in the size of shower heads to worry about the big picture.

by Lanthanide | 15th Jun 21, 12:34pm 1623717255

Ok, so just to be clear, we're not allowed to bash National because they did the best they could, but we are allowed to bash the current Labour government, despite them doing the best they can, and also we're allowed to bash Helen Clark?

Seems to me like you just don't want National bashed.

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 1:05pm 1623719138

Tell me, what exactly did the HC labour govt do to manage housing supply. They even opposed kiwisaver withdrawals for first homes, I bet you didnt know that

by Pragmatist | 15th Jun 21, 7:22pm 1623741731

Do you really think either govt did the best they can/could? That's really suggesting our leaders are fluffing incompetent, and that we as a country really need to take a good look at who we are electing.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 15th Jun 21, 11:17am 1623712671

... true ... it's a matter of trying to fix the mess , rather than apportion blame ... Oliver Hartwich says we've been under supplying the housing market since the late 1970's ...

Reforming the RMA would be a good start , for one ...

by Advisor | 15th Jun 21, 10:28am 1623709721

Both sides of the political spectrum need to stop overestimating their ability to expand our housing stock and infrastructure.

We've added a million people (~25%) to our population in the last 15 years, mostly as a result of net migration, without increasing our economic capacity by much and still feign ignorance on how we got into this mess.

by HouseMouse | 15th Jun 21, 11:14am 1623712440

It's a really good point. They keep talking up 'supply side issues' and 'supply side solutions', for a host of reasons these just don't really work, and even in lifting supply it's never enough. Because the demand is insatiable.

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 11:22am 1623712962

My son aged 21 just bought first home. I was nearly ten years older than that when I bought my first home because I had more time to wait as prices were not going ballistic. A lot of demand is self created by FOMO.

by Plutocracy | 15th Jun 21, 10:43am 1623710623

I wonder what else you think they can do? I doubt we can build much faster, they have implemented tax changes (no CGT but brightline pretty close), what more?

Labour could promise to limit immigration for the foreseeable future to take population pressure off the housing/rental market.

by Advisor | 15th Jun 21, 11:38am 1623713897

The trouble here is the vested interest in keeping the population taps open at pre-COVID levels. Taking that pressure off will a tough stance against sectors addicted to low-skilled migrants.

In short, the reformed migration programme, instead of picking winners and losers in our economy should focus on bringing either those who have the skills to build our infrastructure or high wage individuals who shall pay for that infrastructure (more taxes).

by Plutocracy | 15th Jun 21, 12:59pm 1623718772

You'd think that a political party called "The Labour Party" would realize that immigration has been used in recent years to drive down the value of peoples labour. How ironic.

by Lanthanide | 15th Jun 21, 12:35pm 1623717359

They've already started a report that investigates the role of immigration in the economy.

by Advisor | 15th Jun 21, 12:48pm 1623718123

Labour promised to stem the flow of low-skilled migrants into the country back in 2017. After taking office, they tinkered around the visa processes that did nothing to reduce the flow or improve the quality of migrants for 4 years, which they have openly acknowledged in recent announcements.

45 months and counting in power: all we have is an investigation that won't be complete for another 9 months, after which it would take MBIE another few months to turn the findings into some sort of policy.

by Carlos67 | 15th Jun 21, 11:15am 1623712513

Classic, blame it all on the "last lot" in power trick. Well that last lot will be 9 years ago before you know it and Labour has done zilch while in power. 9 years to build a couple of hundred houses.

by Lanthanide | 15th Jun 21, 12:36pm 1623717412

Better than National, who in 9 years sold more state houses than they built.

by JustAnOpinion | 15th Jun 21, 1:09pm 1623719343

30,300 immigration in 2020, 3000 houses built. The math says they needed to build more or make those they did manage to build be 10 bedroom places.

by tothepoint | 15th Jun 21, 1:51pm 1623721896

Despite Jacinda's sustained popularity abroad, a third term for Labour seems increasingly unlikely.

The simmering discontent with Labour in NZ could well reach a boil before the next election.......

TTP

by HouseMouse | 15th Jun 21, 2:57pm 1623725824

Really?

by CourtJester | 15th Jun 21, 3:20pm 1623727250

Toothy, you were wrong about Labour being voted out TWICE in a row! IT'S TIME FOR YOU TO TAKE RESPONSIBILITY
(am i doing it right?)

by Hamish | 15th Jun 21, 10:04am 1623708257

National Party scratching their heads wondering how Labour have been so successful.

Will they campaign the next election on outrageous house prices and they'll do something about it?

by Gummy Bear Hero | 15th Jun 21, 10:39am 1623710346

... we are living in the time of celebrity culture ... the electorate want someone who looks & sounds good ... a John Key or a Jacinda Ardern ...

Policy ? ... pah ... that's so yesterday ... no one's tuned in to actual policy ... smile / wave / hug / photo-shoot for Woman's Weekly .... yeaaaaaaah

by Advisor | 15th Jun 21, 10:52am 1623711158

Meritocracy doesn't even exist in our corporate culture, let alone being a priority for us when electing national leaders.

by JustAnOpinion | 15th Jun 21, 3:51pm 1623729085

It did some time back, woke warriors have since removed the need to be capable, as long as you tick enough identity/diversity boxes you are in.

But as GBH has rightly surmised, this is not even missed, we are not interested in corporate performance above share price movement, P2E ratios are an irrelevant measure from a period of time, long since gone.

by JimboJones | 15th Jun 21, 10:06am 1623708411

Remember when $1,000,000 was a lot of money? Now you need $1,148,000 just to buy an average Auckland house! And even Papakura almost up to a mil!
Although my Grandad bought his first house in Ponsonby for a few thousand pounds back in the day so it's not like this is something new (pity he didn't keep it).

by theglc | 15th Jun 21, 10:29am 1623709755

That sounds crazy but take a walk around auckland central suburbs and see the amount of houses in a bad state of repair, honestly there are a lot of dumps out there, all worth $1m +

Its such a joke, Auckland is a giant sh*thole whose best days are behind it. Sad but true.

by morepork | 15th Jun 21, 11:34am 1623713674

It's not the houses worth $1m+, it's the land

by Advisor | 15th Jun 21, 12:30pm 1623717053

Its such a joke, Auckland is a giant sh*thole whose best days are behind it

Funny how adding just 200k residents to the country's growth engine can take it from being a decently livable city to a sh*thole.

My mate moved to NZ from overseas to lead port infra projects around the country. He says his usual day involves working with multiple 'interest groups' for the smallest of projects in NZ, way more than what you would deal with on large, multibillion dollar projects elsewhere.

by Squishy | 15th Jun 21, 10:10am 1623708636

Disappointing numbers, can we get the Prime Minister to give another speech about how housing can't keep going up, just so we can give new legs to the market?

As I see it the risk is still zoning, is land use is rationalised to allow more development then house prices could easily start a downwards leg. You can see in most areas that farmland trades for a fraction of the value of adjacent urban zoned land.

by J.C. | 15th Jun 21, 10:14am 1623708879

Great NZ prophet Ashley Church has this to say about it all (he should be Governor General for his efforts and passion for NZ). Seems like he believes that NZ and Auckland in particular is the greatest civilization in history. People probably agree with him.

I’ve written, extensively, on why New Zealanders can feel good about the way in which our housing market operates. If you ever wanted to see a model for a working property market in action you need look no further than ours. Ignore the naysayers and those trying to talk up the prospect of a market crash. Unlike most other nations which have dramatic boom and bust housing cycles where massive value can be wiped out overnight, the New Zealand housing market is stable, trustworthy and has self-moderated supply based on demand very effectively for over 40 years. At the same time, it has delivered consistent capital growth to Kiwis and has made us the fifth wealthiest nation on earth – despite the fact that our average wages are lower than comparable countries.

https://bit.ly/3vpue23

by HouseMouse | 15th Jun 21, 10:20am 1623709206

The majority certainly agree with him. As the majority are beholden to the new religion of self interest.
And stuff the productive economy!

by northman46 | 15th Jun 21, 10:21am 1623709296

"[Housing] has made us the fifth wealthiest nation on earth – despite the fact that our average wages are lower than comparable countries."

Shouldn't that despite be where the alarm bells start ringing?

by J.C. | 15th Jun 21, 10:28am 1623709682

Shouldn't that despite be where the alarm bells start ringing?

Not if you can lend more money into existence than you can earn. According to the prophet, it's all good.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 15th Jun 21, 10:31am 1623709918

Lord Ashley recently opined on a Sunday radio show that there was no house supply shortage in NZ ... houses were always available for sale ... ergo , no shortage ...

... with impeccable logic like that I'm surprised Jacinda hasn't snapped him up to join her inner circle brains trust ...

by Foxglove. | 15th Jun 21, 11:58am 1623715089

Sounds like he may have qualified from the same class as National’s Goldsmith. What’s that way of remembering how to spell arithmetic again?

by mfd | 15th Jun 21, 10:25am 1623709544

It's it amazing how people can look at a couple of pieces of data, in this case low wages and high house prices, and come to such different conclusions? Remarkable mental gymnastics to come to the conclusion that this is good for the country.

by HW2 | 15th Jun 21, 10:32am 1623709937

AC plagiarized most of that from our PM, namely "Ignore the naysayers and those trying to talk up the prospect of a market crash. Unlike most other nations which have dramatic boom and bust housing cycles where massive value can be wiped out overnight, the New Zealand housing market is stable, trustworthy and has self-moderated supply based on demand very effectively for over 40 years. At the same time, it has delivered consistent capital growth to Kiwis"

by JimboJones | 15th Jun 21, 11:02am 1623711733

Ashley, the king of "double every 10 years", can't see a problem? So in 40 years time when the average Auckland house is over $16 million and the average wage is say $200k we will be an even better country with a working property market in action! How about in 100 years when the average house is $1 billion after doubling 10 times?

by HouseMouse | 15th Jun 21, 11:15am 1623712535

Yeah...

by Pragmatist | 15th Jun 21, 11:22am 1623712958

They could double in nominal dollars, if we have high inflation. And that does appear to be where we are heading. It just means a million NZ pesos might buy a weeks shopping, and many people will need to learn how to count the zeros on their banknotes, like when handling VND

by Nzdan | 15th Jun 21, 2:38pm 1623724726

The average Auckland house could be over $16 million but there won't be any buyers except for those who own existing houses selling amongst one another, and the only people who can enter the market are descendants of those who exit through inheritance.

Mortgages will be taken out purely to upgrade, not finance an initial purchase. Real Estate Agents will become executors of deceased estates and the odd side-ways intermarket transaction.

by Henry_Tull | 15th Jun 21, 10:19am 1623709155

Beyond buoyant

https://i.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/buying/125436119/clamour-crashes…

And here is the magic...
The online promotion, held at lunchtime on Monday, gave prospective buyers the chance to reserve one of 116 sections in the town of Rolleston with a $1000 down payment.

The land has not yet been approved for housing development. It is owned by Hughes Development Ltd and, if rezoned, will form part of the Westwood block of the company’s Faringdon subdivision.

But you know, never look a gift horse in the mouth.
# stinky for missed outs

by JustAnOpinion | 15th Jun 21, 4:52pm 1623732759

Rolleston is on the up, there were 3,258 people there in the last census (yeah I know we can't count things but its what we have) so 116 new houses with an average occupancy of 4 people means 472 people or 14% of the population will get a new house. I can see them launching it with Ellen chair leading "you get a house! and you get a house!" #funky dance

by richard1965 | 15th Jun 21, 10:29am 1623709768

I thought Mr Orr said that he has information that housing market is cooling so need not take any action.

Either Mr Orr was bluffing or this data is wrong.

Will Mr Orr respond now....what is he waiting and from where does he gets his data / information.

by Kate | 15th Jun 21, 10:32am 1623709924

Can someone tell me, are these assumptions correct? Based on:

Buyers need to find extra $200k to buy a home, Real Estate Institute data shows

- If we accept the affordability ratio of 3:1 house price to income; and

- A buyer in 2021 needs an extra $200,000 over and above what was needed in 2020; then

- That equates to an additional $68,000 in salary y-o-y needed to make the new mortgage affordable?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/300333073/buyers-n…

by J.C. | 15th Jun 21, 10:55am 1623711328

That calls for a 'wage hike' Kate.

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 11:05am 1623711909

Unless FHB can borrow from the MaD (Mum and Dad) bank

by ikimpaul | 15th Jun 21, 12:49pm 1623718183

At the moment most banks are using a 5 to 1 ratio - so an extra $40 000 increase in wages would be needed - or for a couple $20 000 each.

Aside from that most FHB's need an extra 40K deposit - although there is the bank of Mum and Dad for this, but watchout - according to a oneroof article - that 40K can disappear if the couple separate or can be a problem down the track if Mum and Dad need a nursing home.

Either way somebody is paying for it.

by Kate | 15th Jun 21, 1:14pm 1623719695

Yikes, highly unlikely pay rise per annum even on a 5:1 ratio. What kind of nation are we that ruins all prospect of financial security and the ability to put down roots for our young?

Shameful really.

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 1:27pm 1623720437

10 dollars per hour equates to 20k per annum Kate I am sure you know that... you really are a drama queen. Hourly rates are massive these days even for newbies

by Kate | 15th Jun 21, 1:38pm 1623721106

Can you quantify 'massive'? What professions/jobs are you talking about for these newbies?

by al123 | 15th Jun 21, 1:58pm 1623722293

But the 20k is not what they need to earn - it's the amount EXTRA they need to earn so as not to be going backwards. Even for someone on 100k, that's a 20% pay increase. How many people you know got a 20% pay increase in the last year?

by JustAnOpinion | 15th Jun 21, 5:07pm 1623733645

Did you honestly say "make the new mortgage affordable"? OK so forgiving that whooper ;) It's not a matter of affordability as at zero percent interest it would still take a person earning the average wage ($55,120‬ - https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/labour-market-statistics…), who can save an incredible 50% of their after tax wage ($44,797 *.5 = $22,398) 41 years to pay the $913,000 required to by the average house in NZ. At ZERO percent interest.

by FCM | 15th Jun 21, 10:30am 1623709835

Hard to slow a train down.....

by Squishy | 15th Jun 21, 11:15am 1623712503

Particularly when the Reserve Banks approach to slowing is shoveling more coal.

by richard1965 | 15th Jun 21, 10:49am 1623710948

Now Mr Orr will not be thinking of action to control but how to spin and maipulate to justify to play with time.

Real Shame.

Problem is that Mr Orr will get away as do not have to answer and also no jouranlist will confront him for response.

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 11:09am 1623712157

The govt and rbnz will need someone or something to pin all of the blame for all of the trouble on... PI are a good scapegoat. Dawn raids of PI homes will satisfy the baying crowd

by Carlos67 | 15th Jun 21, 11:23am 1623712999

Very clever of Labour, just get something 50 years out of date into the MSM to get everyone to take their eye off the ball. I wonder how many years from now it will take for the government to apologise for the housing market they let run out of control.

by JustAnOpinion | 15th Jun 21, 4:44pm 1623732247

Leaving behind the issue that things occur in a time and a culture that is not the same as today, if we are going to apologise for history then I think the dawn raids are something to be apologised for, they were racist and if saying sorry for the behaviour of the people in charge back then helps so be it.

It seems having our PI community sleeping in garages (dreaming of motels) is fine but historic racism not so much. Still have my woke warrior training wheels on so if I have it wrong just cancel me.

by Warwick D | 15th Jun 21, 11:06am 1623712015

National median house price rise in the year to May just reported as $200,000. Well done Mr Orr! Bet there will be either deafening silence or a few concerned platitudes from this AWOL government. Commiserations to FHB even if more houses are built because at this rate and with the prospect of gently rising interest rates they will be rightly wary of taking the plunge. Perhaps this government's answer is that we should live in our cycle sheds.

by Yvil | 15th Jun 21, 11:21am 1623712895

This kind of news creates self fulfilling and perpetual FOMO, which of course leads to buyers offering higher prices...

by balance | 15th Jun 21, 11:26am 1623713181

Build more houses, DO NOT address supply....build more houses or our economy fails. Love M Greer

by Pragmatist | 15th Jun 21, 4:46pm 1623732392

Wut?

by mikekirk29 | 15th Jun 21, 11:29am 1623713357

Seeking a useful metric for sales, which as readers will know, I see as most important metric for level interest and enthusiasm in the market, as well as indicator of ability to pay. So, I know that October and May are useful to compare. The increase or decrease in sales in the May following the October are of interest, except for 2019 -20 because May 20 was hit by lockdown.

But, in a rising trend one would expect May sales to exceed October. The overseas buyer ban and Anti money laundering impacted somewhat on 2019 first half and Chinese withdrawal of incoming wall of money hit early 2017. bear that in mind when examining below:

Oct 14 v May 15, Auckland residential sales: +28%
Oct 15 v May 16: + 28%
Oct 16 v May 17: + 8.5%
Oct 17 v May 18: +45%
Oct 18 v May 19: - 0.007%
Oct 19 v May 20: - 43% (lockdown)
Oct 20 v May 21: -14.5%

As I see the period July 2020 to December 2020 as period of rising mania in Auckland market, as in a Gaussian curve of % increase in each month, then dropping away after December 20, t me the above figures indicate further dissipation of the mania. Yes, prices continue to rise unsustainably but sales are dropping away.

In the quarter to May 2016, the last manic phase, compared to the quarter to May 2021, NSC sales were:

1462 v 1484 (nil increase)

Auckland City it was 3266 v 2730 (- 16%)

Waitakere City was up 24%
Manukau City up 36%
Rodney up 13%

Auckland as a whole sales were 6.8% higher in the 2021 quarter to May, than in 2016.
Considering the increase in stock and drop in interest rates in the intervening 5 years, this performance is not as impressive as might have been expected.

As many commentators have said, June will give better idea of what is happening.
But listings are v low and sales in May were LOWER than in October in Auckland (- 14%)

The air slowly coming out of the balloon
Prices will follow in due time, but only in terms of % increase decreasing each month til end of year.
Only a stock market crash will truly impact the housing market in Auckland, or a global recession.
Those two are of course related and if cv19 is NOT got under control by October in the rich countries, we may not have to wait until 2022 to see it

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 11:36am 1623713819

Auckland as a whole sales were 6.8% higher in the 2021 quarter to May, than in 2016....

... But listings are v low

by mikekirk29 | 15th Jun 21, 12:43pm 1623717813

Yes they are v low but the reason for that at present is drop in listings.
Whereas up to March it was due to sped at which they sold.
A lot of stock that just sat there 3 years ago has now been cleared, so what is left is that which sells faster anyway
basically the 10 month mania was of sales to Investors and FHB
OO not much interested in moving unless to get something bigger with extra borrowing capacity due to cuts to rates.
FHB gained from rate cuts and investors from leverage
But sales are not impressive overall, compare to prev mania 5 years ago and also taking into account increase in stock and lower rates.

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 1:11pm 1623719492

What effect is the 5 year BLT having on listings Mike, and can that effect be multiplied due to the 10y BLT

by mikekirk29 | 15th Jun 21, 4:23pm 1623731007

What is BLT? Apart from an attempt to be amusing?

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 5:14pm 1623734082

Are you thinking of Bacon, Lettuce and Tomato ?? ...It could be. But in this case Bright-Line-Test which should have been clear from the context. Never mind you obvs (short for obviously) do not have an answer

by mikekirk29 | 15th Jun 21, 9:34pm 1623749645

Thanks
BLT zero impact on listings in my view
Owners don’t want to sell in same numbers as 3 years ago because of ageing and lack of good places to go. That is what I hear door knocking

by Nifty1 | 15th Jun 21, 9:44pm 1623750256

It's also bloody expensive to move, resulting in most likely more debt...

by mikekirk29 | 15th Jun 21, 9:34pm 1623749645

Thanks
BLT zero impact on listings in my view
Owners don’t want to sell in same numbers as 3 years ago because of ageing and lack of good places to go. That is what I hear door knocking

by printer8 | 15th Jun 21, 11:55am 1623714919

Mike
"I see (sales) as most important metric for level interest and enthusiasm in the market"
Wrong Mike, not a good measure at all.
Nationally property listings at the end of May stood at 14,263 which is 51% below average for the past ten years and 71% below the level of May 2011.
You are not going to get lots of sales without listings . . . . and at the moment shortage of listings seems a more “important metric” which is putting upward pressure on prices causing the market to be buoyant.

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 11:49am 1623714554

Hi P8
Must be a lot of homes sold off the plan which never show up as listings

by printer8 | 15th Jun 21, 5:55pm 1623736501

FH
Quite possibly: however, the 14263 listings was as for REA (as listed on their realestate.co website) at end of May, which as commented is an exceptionally low number of listings . . . the report today says 7,550 were sold in May, the highest May result in three years.
Whether one likes it or not, its hard to argue that isn't still a reasonably buoyant market despite 23 March Government announcements and onset of winter.

by mikekirk29 | 15th Jun 21, 12:40pm 1623717605

No, not wrong, just not what you think.
Listings are a reflection, also, of turnover, ie what is listed in a period v what sells in that period.
Listings did not get above last year much in the mania phase, because they sold so fast.
Whereas in 2018 for instance, they were 30% higher. Why? Because lots of crap stock just sat there getting aged, not selling, boosting the figures.
Whereas at present that has not had change to start creeping up again.
Still feels a bit school master-ish your tone I am afraid.

by dago | 15th Jun 21, 11:33am 1623713617

Eventually borrowing for the majority will reach a ceiling so if they truly want to keep this going, all they need to do now is prop up the bank of Mum and Dad.

by Brock Landers | 15th Jun 21, 12:25pm 1623716751

Anybody care to speculate on how this ends?

by lowercase capitalist | 15th Jun 21, 1:10pm 1623719403

Badly.

No idea what will set off the fireworks or when it will happen but I don't see it ending well.

by CourtJester | 15th Jun 21, 3:26pm 1623727608

I mean, that's not a prediction anymore but the status quo. Can't wait for nurses and teachers leaving this country in droves! A small price to pay for all these beautiful gains, really.

by Pragmatist | 15th Jun 21, 2:30pm 1623724204

Inflation, both of prices and wages. RBNZ will keep interest rates low till the wage inflation starts showing up because they can't hike rates until then.

by JustAnOpinion | 15th Jun 21, 4:37pm 1623731846

Wage inflation will be a slow burn, re-set to zero every time we get immigration up and running. Also, we are in a negative circle with regards to health care, poor wages lead to people heading to Aussie, not enough people leads to people heading to Aussie. If we hit 2023 before we are sending people to Aussie to get health services I will be surprised.

by Lord Dowding | 15th Jun 21, 9:08pm 1623748107

The RBNZ can not be out of synch with the RBA.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/ma…

by 7jai | 15th Jun 21, 12:28pm 1623716929

Wait a second, I thought it was all the foreign (Asian) buyers that were making the house prices sky rocket? Has that rhetoric now changed?

Sorry Labour Government, which one is it now? I find it hard to keep track of your blame game as it changes with the direction of the wind.

by mikekirk29 | 15th Jun 21, 12:45pm 1623717935

That was in 2014-16, and correlated with Chinese credit impulse
That dropped in 2017 and so did sales.
Due to corporate buyers not being counted, this is still going on under surface.
But recent mania was induced by central bank stupidity.

by donny11 | 15th Jun 21, 1:18pm 1623719909

That was a red herring. A politically convenient scapegoat. The truth is it is generally older New-Zealander's screwing younger ones.

by alittle | 15th Jun 21, 2:30pm 1623724237

Supported by both main political parties but hand it to relatively young politicians - Jacinda who with her smile ( or is it smirk now) used panademic along with reserve bank to take it to a level that even John Key could not have thought.

by alittle | 15th Jun 21, 1:39pm 1623721168

Old 3 bedroom house in Howick, was rented for $590 ( rented sometime end of 2019) and now need new tenants and asking $790. Will she get it, may be as not sure.

And government is worried that rent will go up 5% to 10%. Out of curiosity checked new town houses that are been built and recently sold to investors are all asking rent of $800 To $950 plus.

Next advise from Jacinda Arden will be, one family has to rent it out alone, why can't two families rent it jointly and see how affordable, house will be.

by J.C. | 15th Jun 21, 2:11pm 1623723107

Next advise from Jacinda Arden will be, one family has to rent it out alone, why can't two families rent it jointly and see how affordable, house will be.

Sure. Or rent to communes.

by JustAnOpinion | 15th Jun 21, 4:22pm 1623730974

No worries, there are plenty of motel rooms left, we've got this!

by Carlos67 | 15th Jun 21, 5:56pm 1623736593

Actually the rooms are all full in many places with homeless people. This is now actually starting to affect business because sales reps cannot find places to stay out of town and are driving home and back each day. This country is getting unbelievably screwed up.

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 6:34pm 1623738851

Buy some paddocks and set up rows of sleep outs along with common facilities. Would be damn cheaper and still warm, dry and clean

by ikimpaul | 15th Jun 21, 12:56pm 1623718591

To be fair - back in Feb 12 out of the 14 regions all set new records (only BOP and Taranaki didn't). although Bay of Plenty did set a new Record in March.

Now only 5 of the 14 regions have set a new record this month. One of them was Taranaki.

As long as nobody says the word" seasonal dropoff" ie Winter then the government will be able to pat themselves on the back.

That said if I was Mr Orr and Mr Robertson an interest rate hike in August (just for a warning shot across the bow) may stop Winter turning into a record Spring.

by TonyBarnett | 15th Jun 21, 1:03pm 1623719028

Stagflation is going to be a big problem for NZ over the next 5 years if the NZ government doesn't act now to prevent supply shortages for; labour, materials & cheap rental housing stock.

Modern-day Keynesian economists such as Paul Krugman argue that stagflation can be understood through supply shocks and that governments must act to correct the supply shock without allowing unemployment to rise too quickly.

by Brock Landers | 15th Jun 21, 1:11pm 1623719466

The supply of brain cells between the dangly earrings is far too low for action to be taken.

Aroha.

by b21 | 15th Jun 21, 1:30pm 1623720601

Once again an avalanche of empty headed comments totally out of touch of reality and ignoring the social issues the high housing prices they profit from are causing to our country.

In days like these one wishes greed would become a crime one day.

by alittle | 15th Jun 21, 1:42pm 1623721339

RBNZ was waiting for data and now that the data is released and does not suit their narrative, what next ?

Will it be Wait and Watch AGAIN !

by stuart786786 | 15th Jun 21, 2:08pm 1623722916

Talking about May that market is hot, What about June !

Just now a house in Pakuranga with CV of $870000 went for $1543000. This is how Jacinda Arden is increasing supply by multiple rise in land / house price.

Last year before panademic, would be lucky, if they got high 800s.

by genericposter23 | 15th Jun 21, 2:13pm 1623723223

Yep, Merit and hard work are no longer being rewarded. Meanwhile the so called estimated valuation of my own home continues to increase multitudes faster than I can ever earn. This 'system' is clearly broken and broken beyond reproach. I struggle to understand why there isn't already civil unrest.

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 2:32pm 1623724371

"I struggle to understand why there isn't already civil unrest."

Because if you have a half decent job and savings you can be in like flynn buying a first home. Then with 2 to 3 percent interest rates the savings accrue. From that sense, mortgage repayments have never been cheaper

by J.C. | 15th Jun 21, 3:13pm 1623726792

The cost of servicing debt is only one factor in a risk/reward analysis. All depends if you're banking on your home being able an investment or a savings vehicle. NZers seem to believe that house prices are determined by natural forces.

by b21 | 15th Jun 21, 3:35pm 1623728135

You as many others, choose to ignore mortgage repayments in order to pay houses at today's prices usually take 30 years, in which period you will need to pay the house in full plus a ~50% real interest (at current rates) which are also likely to hike to +5% in the short to mid term.

Of course this is an inconvenient truth for the RE lobby, and the cheerleaders will never tell you about this.

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 4:11pm 1623730264

No not really...

by b21 | 15th Jun 21, 4:22pm 1623730936

Yes, yes really... except if you are cherry picking some very specific cases of course.

by Flying high | 15th Jun 21, 6:35pm 1623738919

No not at all b21

by Nifty1 | 15th Jun 21, 5:56pm 1623736602

Can the term 'market cooling' now be banned going forward. Clearly wrong and misleading...

by Just Some Advice | 15th Jun 21, 7:03pm 1623740626

You'd think you were at the TAB judging by the content of most of these comments.

by B727 | 15th Jun 21, 7:41pm 1623742919

Mike Kirk- where is your god now?

by Crazy Horse | 16th Jun 21, 9:23am 1623792183

by Carlos67 | 16th Jun 21, 9:44am 1623793451

Good video Crazy but so what ? People are only doing what they are legally entitled to do. In reality its just the continued slow decay of society thats been happening for the last 50 years. The rich get richer and ultimately try and own everything, well history has shown that "everything" has a tipping point along its path in which society will no longer take it because to many people end up with nothing.

by Pragmatist | 18th Jun 21, 6:46pm 1623998792

Faux news.. Really?