Housing market may already be cooling in Tauranga - QV

Property

QV says average housing values up 6.8% over the last three months but warns of a gradual cooling as new LVR restrictions start to kick in

8th Mar 21, 10:42am by Greg Ninness

The average value of New Zealand homes increased by 6.8% over the three months to the end of February, according to Quotable Value.

Across the main urban districts, average value increases over the three month period ranged from 2.1% in Invercargill to 9.4% in Palmerston North (see table below).

In the main centres average values were up by 6.4% in Auckland, 7.9% in the Wellington Region, 6.1% in Christchurch and 5.6% in Dunedin.

Queenstown-Lakes had the highest average value at $1,316,587 and Invercargill the lowest at $415,817.

However, the re-introduction of Loan-to-Valuation Ratio (LVR) restrictions on new mortgage lending, with investors required to have a minimum 30% deposit from March 1 (increasing to 40% from May 1) and most owner-occupiers needing a 20% minimum deposit, could see the market start to cool in the coming months.

"We may see a gradual cooling of the market in the second and third quarters of 2021, particularly in the entry-level locations as property investors reach their credit limits and first home buyers struggle to raise a big enough deposit," QV General Manager David Nagel said.

One area where the market may already be cooling is Tauranga.

QV Tauranga property consultant Derek Turnwald said there was a real sense that the Tauranga market may be nearing its peak, which could cause some investors to sell properties they had been holding on to while the market was rising.

"Agents are receiving less inquiries from New Zealanders living overseas now, possibly as a consequence of vaccine rollouts and increased confidence that there is finally an end in sight to the worst effects of the COVID-19 pandemic," Turnwald said.

"Recent indications that the Government wants to reduce investor activity, particularly speculator activity, and restrictions on lending to investors could help to curb investor interest and activity, and therefore slow value growth across Tauranga," he said.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

QV House Price Index

Average Values December 2020 - February 2021

QV's full report is available here.

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88 Comments

by frazz | 8th Mar 21, 11:01am 1615154499

Pictures sums it up - NZ has shown its true colour's to the young so when the borders open expect to see a stampede to Australia and abroad (including those who came back for covid reasons).

by Nzdan | 8th Mar 21, 11:14am 1615155255

NZ Border movements (Arrivals vs Departures) currently at approx. negative 127k.
Mar 20 - 310k vs 373k
Apr 20 - 6k vs 32k
May 20 - 5k vs 10k
Jun 20 - 9k vs 15k
Jul 20 - 9k vs 18k
Aug 20 - 11k vs 14k
Sep 20 - 11k vs 15k
Oct 20 - 12k vs 13k
Nov 20 - 11k vs 13k
Dec 20 - 12k vs 17k
Jan 20 - 13k vs 14k
Feb 20 - 12k vs 13k

by Te Kooti | 8th Mar 21, 11:32am 1615156348

It's not really a true picture though is it given for almost a year there has been a cap on arrivals to NZ but you can still depart to a lot of places unrestricted.

by Independent_Observer | 8th Mar 21, 12:00pm 1615158032

How do you mean it’s not a true picture?

by Te Kooti | 8th Mar 21, 1:00pm 1615161643

There is a cap on the amount of people that can enter the country while there is no cap on the amount that can leave. Do I need to explain why that may distort the arrivals/departures?

by Independent_Observer | 8th Mar 21, 2:12pm 1615165958

So it is a true picture of actual arrivals and departures despite your claims it was not?

Should people who wished to move here and people who wished to leave be counted (in some manner) - is that your point?

by Te Kooti | 8th Mar 21, 2:15pm 1615166100

Of course it is factually correct, however you can draw no meaningful conclusion due to the borders effectively being closed.

by Independent_Observer | 8th Mar 21, 2:48pm 1615168110

Well you can draw the conclusion that NZdan did starting that were at around negative 127k - which he/she did and you’ve dismissed.

That would appear to be factually correct (if his numbers are right) and a true picture of what has happened.

Or we could do wish lists asking people if they wanted to stay/leave to find a truer picture but that would be less of a Mona Lisa and more of a Picasso in terms of clarity around the situation.

by Te Kooti | 8th Mar 21, 3:00pm 1615168855

I hadn't dismissed the number, I said it was of limited value due to border distortions. No doubt many temporary workers/students in NZ relocated home due to the pandemic. Getting back to NZ has been tough however given NZ locked the border early and hard.

You are free to interpret that number any way you wish.

by Nzdan | 8th Mar 21, 12:00pm 1615158035

Regardless of the forces at play, the numbers are still there. Out of curiosity, do you have a figure for this "cap" on arrivals?

by iconoclast | 8th Mar 21, 12:18pm 1615159136

Currently the daily ISO and MIQ capacity is effectively providing a cap on daily arrivals
Watch the number of arrivals after 25th March when the MIQ fee goes to $5,520 per person

by Chris-M | 8th Mar 21, 1:21pm 1615162898

Given that Ardern has stated that she will ensure that the property ponzie will continue and she will never allow property prices to fall, I would expect that when travel eases up there will be a flood of people leaving NZ. The 20% property price rise last year, the prospect of projected future rises and Arderns guarantee of indefinite price rises means that a great many hopeful first home buyers have absolutely no hope of ever owning a property so the only rational thing to do is for them to leave.

by Quiet Desperation | 8th Mar 21, 1:57pm 1615165067

This recent article from Bernard Hickey gives a little taste of how much crazier things could get: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300246286/thought-the… Published less than 24hrs ago and already buried quickly by Stuff. Why do they even bother with the pretence. Meanwhile their property pump pieces on young first home buyers hang around the front page for ages. The most recent being a couple that continued renting a room in a house after getting married and finally bought a crappily renovated 1975 2 bedroom attached unit.. 8 months ago! They also rent out the second bedroom and I wouldn't be surprised to know that they are leaving out that this was more a requirement than a choice : https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/first-homes/124300922/were-you…

by blobbles | 8th Mar 21, 2:24pm 1615166660

I read that one on the weekend, I couldn't believe how ridiculous it was. That 2 people with normal jobs have to take out a half a million dollar mortgage to be able to afford a crappy 1970s attached house shows you how broken it all is. Oh, it's only 2 bedrooms...

by Quiet Desperation | 8th Mar 21, 2:56pm 1615168599

Absolutely broken. They don't even care that this was 8 months ago, before things really took off. After living quite frugally, their honeymoon aside and saving all through their 20s with only a room to themselves... just to get into an attached 1975 2 bedroom that needs to be renovated properly, has no room for a vegetable plot and needs a boarder in the second bedroom. The piece reads like the path to home ownership is something out of Joseph Campbells theories on the Hero's Journey, that somehow everyone can achieve if they just knuckle down hard enough.

"A hero ventures forth from the world of common day into a region of supernatural wonder: fabulous forces are there encountered and a decisive victory is won: the hero comes back from this mysterious adventure with the power to bestow boons on his fellow man."

by Independent_Observer | 8th Mar 21, 3:06pm 1615169195

Yeah the level of greed and ignorance on display, primarily throughout the anglosphere, is off-scale high compared to anything I expected I would experience in my lifetime. Beyond believable.

by Quiet Desperation | 8th Mar 21, 3:20pm 1615170046

Absolutely. No matter how aware you are of just how dark a place such greed and ignorance has taken us in the past.. seeing our current decline is hard to believe. The mind still resists.

by dago | 8th Mar 21, 2:28pm 1615166938

The reality is no-one can really guess what will happen and whether Bernard's scenario will eventuate (without intervention I'd say yes) Therefore the least these morons in the beehive could do is get on with their little announcement so at least people can make plans. For the sake of FHB at least. I'm amazed there aren't riots outside parliament given what hypocritical slime Grant and Jacinda are, professing to care about inequality and 'wellbeing' while admitting no decisions have been made, delaying, still being advised nearly 12 months into the boom. Let alone Jacinda talking of kiwis expecting their houses to go up in the midst of a superheated housing boom - she is the biggest traitor of the working and welfare class and makes John Key look like Mother Teresa by comparison

by Independent_Observer | 8th Mar 21, 3:03pm 1615169025

Yip Labour have become bigger hypocrites than National when it comes to housing and inequality - in all honesty I think the future prospects in NZ for young people are possibly the worst they've ever been (yes going right back to pakeha arriving here).

NZ is now the same horrible place that people were trying to escape when they left on ships from the UK a 150 years ago.

Hopefully Elon Musk can organise his Starship fleet soon so young people might have some hope of creating their own prosperity - but given the greed and ignorance on offer by the status quo here on earth - it appears that the only place they might find that is on a different planet (how insane...)

by Flying high | 8th Mar 21, 3:49pm 1615171797

Trouble with you is you expect the earth but want it for nothing. Youre happy to take advantage of others

by Independent_Observer | 8th Mar 21, 4:08pm 1615172901

"Trouble with you is you expect the earth but want it for nothing. Youre happy to take advantage of others"

Please explain....that sounds like the description of a landlord/property investor and I'm purposefully not in that profession.

Taking other peoples wages in the form of rent, while using equity in other properties to buy more properties, out bidding young people at auctions, then using other peoples wages (earned in the productive economy) would be more expecting the earth but want it for nothing - and taking advantage of others.

I've purchased a few shares and bonds over the years, and given capital to productive businesses/startups and paid landlords mortgages in the form of rent, and paid the government a lot of PAYE/income taxes - so yeah haven't really expected the earth and wanted it for nothing because in reality I've done the complete opposite.

Is your inaccurate personal attack complete or want to fire a few more arrows in the dark?

by al123 | 8th Mar 21, 4:48pm 1615175285

I think that most people my age just want something vaguely approximating what their parents had - the chance to raise a family in a stable home. Here are the things that my parents and almost all of my friends parents were able to do fairly easily: buy a house in their early to mid twenties, in the area their friends and extended family all lived (and had for generations). Pay a mortgage on the income of one earner (for the most part, an earner who only had a high school education) while one parent stayed home and looked after the kids (two and sometimes three). Pay off the mortgage well before retirement. Do all this within easy commuting distance of the work and educational opportunities a big city provided. It seems like a distant dream now. I know people who have just scraped something like that by their mid-thirties with both people working full time in jobs that require qualifications. But by then it's often too late to have more than one kid if you're lucky (in some cases none, because it's just too late.

The trouble is that you hand the earth handed to you, and rather than handing it on, you used it up, passed on the crumbs, and called the next generation 'entitled' because they had the temerity to ask for a scrap rather than just a few crumbs.

by Quiet Desperation | 8th Mar 21, 4:58pm 1615175893

Well said.

by Flying high | 8th Mar 21, 6:28pm 1615181318

My comment is directed at the one commenter... as far as the wider situation of the market yes it has got out of hand but not done yet.

by Independent_Observer | 8th Mar 21, 8:26pm 1615188415

How lucky I am to be the specific focus of your good character FH!

by Craig Gerzon | 8th Mar 21, 4:05pm 1615172711

A wise commentator once suggested the dominate emotions are fear and greed ?

by Quiet Desperation | 8th Mar 21, 3:14pm 1615169647

This is true of almost all politicians. But I agree that it is especially despicable here. She strongly and repeatedly espouses the virtues of kindness and need for transformation, while using her communication skills to manipulate and deceive the people in our society who are most in need of this kindness, into believing in her and voting against their own best interests. This would be defined clearly as abuse in any other relationship.

by Independent_Observer | 8th Mar 21, 3:47pm 1615171670

Yeah unfortunately my level of dislike is growing for her on a weekly basis - almost at the same level that John Key was in his last term. Both all talk but 'at the end of the day' broken promises. 'Transformation' = welfare for landlords.

by Chris-M | 8th Mar 21, 5:01pm 1615176062

Yes it is hard to find suitable adjectives to describe Ardern and I have a fairly good vocabulary in that area.

by karl seastrand | 8th Mar 21, 2:43pm 1615167794

QD.. there are probably very good reasons why Bernard Hickey is an economist. One step above a pubic servant.

by Yvil | 8th Mar 21, 6:45pm 1615182306

QD, thanks for sharing Hickey's article, very good indeed

by karl seastrand | 8th Mar 21, 7:44pm 1615185893

Yvil... yeah always good to read other peoples views. I even like to read what Tony and Ashley have to say, which is usually something quite similar to what Bernard has written here. He may even turn out to be right but based on the past predictions of econs......

by Yvil | 8th Mar 21, 8:03pm 1615187003

True, Hickey doesn't have the best prediction track record. For what it's worth I'd listen to Alexander far ahead of Hickey or Church, actually Alexander has recently been making some comments that he sees the housing market cooling off soon

by karl seastrand | 9th Mar 21, 10:05am 1615237545

Yvil.... I was very young at the time but I seem to remember that Tony Alexander was a DGM on the NZ housing market and I think he may have said he would never buy a house and renting was better etc up until as recently as the early 90s. I can't find anything to corroborate this and it was a long time ago but would be interested if you (or anyone else) knows if my memory serves me correctly on this?
And yes I have noticed that over the last couple of years Tony has become more circumspect and qualifying in his statements. Maybe he has been reading more of Shiller, Taleb, Tetlock etc. But whatever the reason his views seem more balanced and that can only be positive. As for Ashley Church he would probably tell you he would gain nothing from reading the abovementioned authors, which would actually be true, unless of course he hired a translator.

by b21 | 9th Mar 21, 9:00am 1615233659

Precisely because it can get worse it is time for both the RBNZ and the Government to put a leash on speculative investment, not now but yesterday. The lack of action would hammer the economy and leave even more households with no disposable income, indebted to eternity.

by Carlos67 | 8th Mar 21, 2:15pm 1615166137

Your assumption is that things will just go back to normal in a post Covid world. The world is changing regardless, there will come a day in the not so distant future where your freedom to travel diminishes. As the world population increases, more and more countries are simply not going to want you. There will never be a shortage of people trying to get into New Zealand compared to those that actually leave. Its time for Kiwis to stop freaking out if our population starts to fall, it needs to start falling and so does the world population.

by Independent_Observer | 8th Mar 21, 2:18pm 1615166338

Depressing stuff - we let more and more people in, screwing over the younger generation who have to compete not only with property investors but also immigrants to buy a house. Talk about shitting on the young while Mum and Dad perch on the nest.

by Small Kev | 8th Mar 21, 3:31pm 1615170707

Young people will leave, wealthy people from other countries will flood into NZ..

by Independent_Observer | 8th Mar 21, 3:46pm 1615171567

We could just turn the country into a giant retirement village. No need for young people who want to work and pay taxes. Central bank can just do some MMT for the boomers and kick all the little avocado eating, iphone savy, shits out of the country for good!

by al123 | 8th Mar 21, 4:49pm 1615175376

We'll need care workers and nurses though - no worries, we can just import them from overseas.

by buyandhodl | 8th Mar 21, 4:58pm 1615175880

Yup, the beautiful thing about relying on immigration from the developing world is even if the average house price in Auckland was $5m, and wages hadn't moved at all. They'd still come. Because it's still better than Calcutta, or Manila, or the oppression in Beijing and Shanghai. You're still better off earning $35k p.a in Auckland, with no chance of home ownership, saving $5-10k p.a which you can send back home to a country where an annual income in that range is normal.

by Chris-M | 8th Mar 21, 5:06pm 1615176375

Yes this has been Labour party policy for quite some time. When I wrote to Michael Cullen during the Clark era about the house prices forcing young Kiwis overseas mainly to Australia, he replied that he did not care as the world was full of other people desperate to come to NZ. That is how much they care about breaking up our families and the next generation.

by dago | 9th Mar 21, 8:39am 1615232369

Cullen said that!? Wow

by Chris-M | 9th Mar 21, 1:14pm 1615248860

Yes. The email read as if he personally wrote it. You can tell when the minions write emails. You get fluffy meaningless bumf.

by Small Kev | 8th Mar 21, 11:06am 1615154793

About time to catch a breather until border reopens.

by ikimpaul | 8th Mar 21, 12:51pm 1615161107

you realise that if the borders reopen - migrants cant buy a property for the first 12 months ie until mid 2022 - assuming they open mid year. The foreign investment rules said the person must be in the country for at least 12 months before been able to purchase.

Its also possible that Kiwis may also leave once the borders open to countries where the ability to buy a home is easier and cheaper

by Small Kev | 8th Mar 21, 3:34pm 1615170854

They will need somewhere to live before they can buy. 12 month plenty of time to do their property purchasing research.

by Nifty1 | 8th Mar 21, 11:20am 1615155630

How depressing is that average value for Auckland...or that fact, anywhere in New Zealand...

by Fritz | 8th Mar 21, 12:55pm 1615161309

A walk through the mid section of Queen Street today brought it home to me where NZ is, and where we are heading.
Drab dirty and rundown, full of beggars and people out of it.
I really fear for our future.

by Independent_Observer | 8th Mar 21, 3:19pm 1615169975

When I moved back to Auckland in 2015 I was really surprised by the increase in homeless people begging in the streets around the CBD. It made me realise that things aren't that great in our society and a lot of people have lost faith in the system - and don't see a way of getting themselves integrated back into NZ society in a meaningful way (i.e. we've broken them).

by Millennial_Woman | 8th Mar 21, 4:34pm 1615174450

I've noticed it to. I studied in Auckland and now work in the CBD, so have been walking up and down queen street regularly for over 10 years. it has gotten a lot worse, particularly in the last 5 or so years... Can't blame that on National, as much as I'd like to. Things are getting worse at a faster pace now.

by brisket | 9th Mar 21, 11:57am 1615244279

Yeah, it's another illustration of how broken it all is.
Queen St, once a 'premier shopping strip', now has more homeless than shoppers.
But it's definitely worth paying over a million dollars for the privilege of living in Auckland...

by rastus1 | 8th Mar 21, 11:23am 1615155797

All bets are off (for me). In a free market, sure they should drop. In this era of money printing in an economy based on housing and immigration (gone) you can bet that spite of the 'words' the priority will be the opposite.

Pumping they will be.

by Tom Valen | 8th Mar 21, 11:49am 1615157380

Cooling off. Right. So does that mean prices will stay at these stratospheric nose-bleed levels, and won't be allowed to drop back to sane territory?

by Cowpat | 8th Mar 21, 12:03pm 1615158203

Just last week Interest had the house on after burners
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/109315/astonishing-increases-housin…

by Spectators | 8th Mar 21, 12:05pm 1615158334

NZ is fu***d. Debt so high and concentrated in housing that it now cannot be allowed to fail. Add several generations of kiwis who firmly believe housing is a one way bet (which is what they've experienced thanks to lower interest rates) having told their kids get in at 'any cost' and we have ourselves a right mess.

by rastus1 | 8th Mar 21, 12:15pm 1615158929

Not just NZ. Did I read over the weekend debt levels at 100% of gdp and a county used to be considered a basket case. Global debt is now 350%.

This debt is impossible to repay. So we overstate the covid to blame and print like there is no tomorrow.

Once mainstream wake up to what is really going on and their digits are valueless, then the need for a highly trained populace to do what it's told will be evident.

We are all currently in 'training'.

by Theoracle | 8th Mar 21, 12:48pm 1615160927

It was never intended debt be repaid... just pass it on.

That's all this game is... debt transferral.

by richard1965 | 8th Mar 21, 1:10pm 1615162206

Even individuals are less worried, who have borrowed in extreme as now their government and reserve bank are more concerned about their loan than individual for if the individual default it is the reputation and creditability of government and reserve bank at stake.

Imagine if have mortage default oin NZ - What will happen to Jacinda Arden and Mr Orr, so it is them who are shit scare of such a situation and for that very reason, to cover themselves will go all out to protect the ponzi.

Question is how long people on power can manipulate the economy- can delay the inevitable but cannot avoid.

by b21 | 8th Mar 21, 12:10pm 1615158655

We must really hope the Government won't use a prospective market cooldown as an excuse to do nothing once again.
If they care about their people they should start with a total BAN on housing investment since the 40% LVR won't apply to new builds and some still will be able to use recently acquired equity or circumvent the restrictions using relatives or friends.

by Theoracle | 8th Mar 21, 12:51pm 1615161114

OK well one thing that's not getting much air time is the fact that there are now approx 10,000 new construction apprentices compared to last year.

They're at the start of a 3 to 5 year apprenticeship but if the market cools and business owners can't employ them where do they go... the western isle. If the big sand dune will have them and employ them.

Then in a few years we're back in the same boat with less qualified tradesmen, even fewer older, decrepit tradesmen wanting to retire, skilled labour shortages and... hey presto, higher build costs so... less houses.

by GV 27 | 8th Mar 21, 12:23pm 1615159384

Tauranga is a crappy bellweather for the national appetite for housing. What it does show, however, is that Aucklanders can't see much to be gained by trading one over-priced, congested, under-provided-for city for another. So the more Tauranga becomes like Auckland, the more I'd expect growth in prices to slow; if anything I can see more heat being applied to places like Taupo, Dunedin etc as livable alternatives become more popular for fleeing/downsizing/remote-working Aucklanders.

by loveyourwork | 8th Mar 21, 12:42pm 1615160569

A bloke made redundant at work last year was weighing up options moving out of Auckland. Tauranga was one of them. He ended up moving to CHCH where he bought a home + a rental with cash (he had a mortgage on family home whilst in Auckland). Can see the logic.

by Ezy | 8th Mar 21, 1:00pm 1615161623

Tauranga is a beautiful place to live but the core economy is based on a very limited set of variables - the port, agriculture (kiwifruit, avos, etc.), forestry, and tourism. When the QE bubble finally goes kaboom globally, these are the fundamentals at play, and there won't be many dollars to go around to service those $1M mortgages as inflation kicks in.

by Fritz | 8th Mar 21, 12:56pm 1615161395

For me, Tauranga is the most overrated and overpriced city in NZ.

by Carlos67 | 8th Mar 21, 1:08pm 1615162097

Not for me sold in Auckland and moved to Tauranga late last year. Prices are going up at a rapid rate for a reason here, still way cheaper than Auckland, 20 minutes to practically anywhere and the weather is way better than Auckland with much lower humidity. I'm living 15 min to the CBD and looking at cows over the fence. There is nowhere in Auckland with this lifestyle anymore.

by Craig Gerzon | 8th Mar 21, 4:28pm 1615174106

Carlos I completely concur,
Built my 1st house there in1994,,,,,
Relocating after 20 yrs in Wellington, over Wellingtons weather.
Building again in Omokoroa.
Benign climate and a rural environment.

by ikimpaul | 8th Mar 21, 1:01pm 1615161700

or is it. Tauranga is actually the most unaffordable city in NZ when you compare average salaries to house prices, housing affordability is at 9 vs Auckland and Wellingtons 8. What it is indicating is that affordability levels have reached their peak in Tauranga - people can no longer borrow more to bid up house prices further. How this works is as follows:

House Upgrader last year lists house at 700K - first home buyer buys at 700K (borrowing 550K)

House Upgrader can then borrow 700K - say his previous mortgage is 300K - he can now bid $1.1M on his next house

This year house upgrader lists house at 900K - first home buyer buys at 900K (borrowing 720K due to low interest rates )

House Upgrader can now borrow 900K - say his previous mortgage is 300K - he can now bid $1.42M on his next house

however the first home buyers cant without a wage increase or interest rates dropping borrow more than the 720K - so the maximum the house upgrader can get is 900K - the maximum he can in turn pay without interest rates dropping or awage increase is1.42M

Effectively the market peaks because there are no more players able to borrow more- the most unaffordable regions see this phenomenon first. All the commentators have been warning of this effect occurring this year - people reach their maximum borrowing capacity.

by Carlos67 | 8th Mar 21, 1:11pm 1615162265

Prices can keep on going down here in Tauranga due to the number of cashed up Aucklanders leaving for a better lifestyle. Its fantastic down here but like I said before, you want to be retired and no need to work anymore.

by ikimpaul | 8th Mar 21, 1:54pm 1615164866

the retiree effect is actually thereason why Tauranga has a high affordability index (retirees have low incomes which results in a lower average income in Tauranga), but its unlikely retirees from Auckland are competing with First home buyers - unless they are downsizing.

However Retirees from Auckalnd are likely very shortly to run into the afforability problem - as buyers in Auckland reach the ceiling of what they can borrow- retirees will reach the ceiling of their property asking price. which then caps what they can bid on their next property.

by bw | 8th Mar 21, 3:21pm 1615170079

by Independent_Observer | 8th Mar 21, 3:36pm 1615170964

What happens when all the boomers die down there the next 10-15 years Carlos? Will the last of the boomers ceremoniously hand the keys of the city over to the resident bogans? It might turn into the Gore of the north island (admittedly the Mount is more attractive than the Mataura river though!)

by pacifica | 9th Mar 21, 12:20am 1615202415

Stay away from Dunedin. The spike on property prices there is insane over the past few years. They are at the level Auckland was 4 years ago, yet with a much older housing stock often without road or street access which makes any management maintenance horrible (when decrepit housing, often from the 1920s and 1930s, versus repairs to even be liveable, aka sans toxic mould, is even taken into account). Any more and I think even the students who sleep on couches outside will not be able to afford to do so (they would need to pay too much rent on the space the damp couches occupy). Taupo might be a good wee tourist town but like Paihia and Kaikoura they do not have any of the other things needed for balanced living conditions for a larger population and cannot even handle the little growth now: there is no large council investment fund for new infrastructure, poor retirement health in the area and have no nearby proper medical services. When you are old and infirm you want to know your cancer or heart attack will be picked up and have medical care within say a few years. Not left waiting and dead before you get a medical appointment through a limited GP who often does not make referrals.

by dago | 8th Mar 21, 1:52pm 1615164773

Orr is going to read this and call an emergency meeting to slash OCR

by Quiet Desperation | 8th Mar 21, 2:17pm 1615166262

Effective immediately too. We can't just wait months to begin correcting something! That approach is only appropriate when prices are skyrocketing...

by Brock Landers | 8th Mar 21, 2:30pm 1615167014

Here's an inside tip for anybody thinking of voting for princess tooth tooth and her squad of diversity hires at the next election.

Dont.

by dago | 8th Mar 21, 3:02pm 1615168967

Another tip, teach yr kids to think for themselves once in a while so they don't fall prey to a cult of personality. Smiling bobbing princess tooth tooth and lame slogans-proof your children

by Independent_Observer | 8th Mar 21, 3:16pm 1615169788

I personally think democracy is dead in NZ - you vote for people/parties based on policies then they simply fold and do whatever is required to make the rich even richer. Doesn't matter if they are left or right.

History would suggest that at some point that isn't going to be a sustainable governance model for a stable and cooperative society.

by rastus1 | 8th Mar 21, 3:35pm 1615170932

Its only dead because voters are brain dead.
You will NEVER get change form mainstream parties - they are too beholden to their interest groups.
Vote for a minor party. For young and asset less classes, TOP would be a wise call. But take you pick...just don't go for the mainstream.

by Independent_Observer | 8th Mar 21, 3:43pm 1615171406

Yes we get the policies we deserve because we keep voting these people in - but how do you tell the average person its in their best interests, long term, that policies are introduced that might reduce the value of their primary asset....

I think its the case where prevention was the key and now that house prices are so elevated, you can't treat the problem. It makes me think of a person with cancer who is in denial to the fact that they're dying. Even terminally ill they believe the chemo will save them (which is where as a society we appear to be right now with respect to QE/lowering interest rates and rising house prices). The death of that system would appear to be the most likely eventuality as its irrational and unwilling to change in order to save itself. Its desire to continue on the same path, without significant new treatment, will be its demise.

by Theoracle | 8th Mar 21, 6:22pm 1615180938

The terminally ill from cancer I've all known, which is a few now, have unanimously been under no illusion the chemo would save them. And it didn't. They did the chemo for their families sake, to give them more time. A selfless choice and a horrible grueling death.

So perhaps continuing with this analogy, chemo is like money printing? We print to extend the inevitable.

by dago | 8th Mar 21, 5:32pm 1615177926

Good call. Even if their policies can be a bit out there. Anything but Natbour

by Quiet Desperation | 8th Mar 21, 4:42pm 1615174965

With a few commendable exceptions, proper journalism is practically dead in this country and true democracy cannot survive without it. It's far too easy for these parasites to thrive in a post-truth environment where objective facts and actual policy don't really matter, because hardly anyone is consistently calling them out for it publicly where everyone can see. The longer this goes on, the more the public is desensitized to the manipulation, the easier it is for them. I highly recommend the 'Collective' documentary: https://youtu.be/KLgGoT7v3ro - People are quick to point out the failure of others to be proactively informed and vote for minor parties, when this only scratches the surface of the problem. While there's a lot to be said about the influence of society, technology etc. on the psychology of voters, we continually ignore a core problem - that we allow the truth to be held in so little regard. We're always doomed to be scratching around in the dark without it.

by dago | 8th Mar 21, 5:50pm 1615179043

I hope in this information era, young peoples natural curiosity about the world combined with their addiction to internet will lead them to some of these sorts of informative independant docos and away from the mainstream stuff..If one likes it they share with it with their pals and so on

by pacifica | 9th Mar 21, 12:28am 1615202880

Sharing went with the DCMA. Unless they are pirates they are sharing nothing to no one and the cost for the subscription based mainstream services makes suggesting anything not mainstream and not mass marketing dumbed down driven prohibitive to even consider looking at. Most people either switch off mainstream marketing media channels altogether in which case indie games might be the best way to reach them or you are staring down the barrel of external cooking competition, bachelor, disney channel, animal farms (except here is a clue the animals are humans and the mortgage manager is there to make you a debt slave for life).

by dago | 8th Mar 21, 5:35pm 1615178148

Trying to spot the honest politician is becoming harder even with rose tinted glasses. Certainly democracy is eroding and probably has been for some time

by Yvil | 8th Mar 21, 6:30pm 1615181400

Ohhh look at the picture, the house(ing market) is about to fall off the cliff into the abyss

by Nzdan | 8th Mar 21, 8:47pm 1615189626

It's a photo of the NZ housing market in 2013.