New property listings on Realestate.co.nz recovered well after the Level 4 lockdown but remained flat over winter

Top of the morning to you, Yvil.

TTP

Hi Printer,

it would feel be helpful if people referred to a common metric for listings: one that might be useful is new listings per day.
I have compiled this for Hibiscus Coast over last 2 years, monthly.
It ranges from low of about 2.5 per day, up to 8 at peak (usually in Nov-Dec)
It takes a lot of counting which is ok on a small region but a lot more work for Auckland.
From August 10th 2019 to Sept 8th inclusive, HC new listing per day was 3.43.
In a 14 day period of July 2019 it was running at 4.27 and in 2020 this rose to 5.28, a rise of 24%
So, clearly, turnover is up and DTS is down. Total OTM is down but they sell faster.
Listings dropping quite fast at present because being sold faster than being put OTM
In that respect, market is indeed "strong", in HC and probably most other areas of Auckland outside of Manukau, and especially at top end of prices.
In respect to overall sales, that is a different matter. Auckland sales are marginally up (1.7% in 2020) but the lockdown deficit of 1868 (compared to April and May sales in 2019) was only 42% made up for by increased sales in June and July

Sorry, Jimmy, but that's incorrect - and misleading.

Earlier this year, I said that that could fall by UP TO 12 percent - but adding that the recovery would be "faster and more sustained than many here would dare believe".

I still believe a fall in house prices is possible - and that in a worst case scenario it may be somewhere around 10 percent.

TTP

Hi b21: it is all a bit murky!
Yes, property gets occupied when sold.
But articles on Interest have indicated, a couple of years back (and I would have to dig through a lot of paperwork to find my print out of it) that a large share of new builds are bought by investors to rent out. Which implies that the people renting them are, thus, not owners. So, the popular impression that loads of consents means more stock to own is correct but not quite right - much of what is sold goes on to be rented, not owned by the occupier themselves. Hence, OO % of pop continues to decline, despite all the extra consenting. This is not made plain v often, anywhere.

The census shows how many households they estimate in Auckland.
It is about 330,000.
Problem then is this: the pop of Auckland is STILL an estimate, despite having had a census!
In fact at one point Stats NZ was (pre census) putting out a figure of 1.65m. Then, after census, they revised this down substantially. I read different figures from different sources.
So, I plump for 1.5m.
The next issue, critical to opinions on whether there is a shortage of housing in Auckland, is how many people are there in these households?
In S Auckland it could be an average of 5-7 or more.
In retirement villages it is 2 or under.
And 33,000 are stated as empty , at least most of the time.
So, what people do is use an average. But using 3 per hh gives you a huge difference cf using 2.6 or 2.4.
For what its worth, I do not think there is a shortage of housing in Auckland because the term "Auckland" is far too generic and amorphous and also, the shortage is of good quality reasonably priced places to rent for families. There is no shortage of stuff to buy. Which is why buyers fall in total, year on year, as prices are too high. Hence sales down 27% in Auckland since 2013. This comes down to failure to distinguish between demand for housing (ie numbers of people wanting and ABLE to buy) v NEED, which is all those who need a place to live but cannot get a suitable place at a reasonable rent. need is not met because market wants to build either 4-6 bedroom's things on which developer can make more profit, or boxes of 35m square for folk on their own or whom Auckland Council want to house in brownfield sites. The mansions tend to be on outskirts, where sales are rising year on year, whilst boxes are in AC etc, where decreasing numbers want to live except under 25s and students, or super rich.

By the way, my figure of 30% of RE NZ stuff being unbuilt or new build is my counting of what is on there - yes, I went through a couple of thousand of newest and oldest to get an estimate of what is not being sold by an actual owner living in it at present. Of the oldest listings, it is 43% not built. Of newest, about 27%. So, my 30% overall is a bit generous to them really. It is v frustrating and annoying that the authorities monitoring listings and sales do not provide granular detail, esp which does not suit their overall purpose. presentation is critical to perception and what media choose to show and state is what they want people to read, NOT what would provide most enlightenment and knowledge

"provide to their own companies, and transferring wealth to charities which they control but which make little or no charitable donations”.

Ok, who are the lowlifes using a charity for personal gain?

Cheers mike (although we don't always agree). :)

No CJ099
Your comment shows a considerable lack of understanding of both the varied nature and purpose of Trusts.
For example, my wife (both our second marriages) has a trust that she established thirty years ago when she was on her own, and well before she met me. Her purpose of that trust was to both record and protect her assets including her home - which was owned in the trust name - prior to establishing a relationship and in the event of subsequent breakdown. I have no problem with that, and for her it was the correct and prudent thing to do.
While I personally do not have a trust - preferring other means - for partners to have property owned in trust in situations of blended marriages is not only about protecting property in a relationship breakdown, but also to protect the interests of the children of the partner who dies first rather than all going to the children of the surviving partner (let me know if you can't think of the implications).
As there is a very high incidence of blended marriages, many of the property owning trusts that you refer to are likely to be in this situation.
Trusts are also used for a variety of other reasons such as when a property is owned jointly by unrelated settlors. For example, for friends or siblings to buy a holiday home together; in this case establishing a trust is being prudent and is appropriate.
Probably all a bit hard for you to understand when you are besotted with conspiracy theories.
So rather than me being hypocritical, it is more a case of your ignorance.
Cheers

But the other article on interest today said listings (stock) was down... Perhaps we are running out of sellers, not buyers?