Barfoot & Thompson's sales bounced back very strongly in July

Property

Barfoot & Thompson's July sales were more like the peak summer selling season than mid-winter

4th Aug 20, 10:29am by Greg Ninness

Barfoot & Thompson has just recorded its best July sales volumes in five years.

The real estate agency, which is the largest in the Auckland market, sold 1095 residential properties in July, up 24.6% on July last year and the highest number of sales in the month of July since 2015.

New listings were also robust, with the agency adding 1518 new properties for sale in July, up 31.5% on July last year and also the highest number of new listings in the month of July since 2015.

The agency's total stock levels have remained stable since March, ranging from 3821 to 4001 over that period.

At the end of July Barfoots had a total of 3873 residential properties available for sale, down slightly from the 4001 at the end of June, but barely changed from the 3864 it had on its books at the end of July last year.

Prices were also reasonably stable.

Barfoot's average selling price rose for the second month in a row to $979,189 but remained below the March peak of $993,528.

The median price declined for the second month in a row to $890,000, which was also below the March peak of $925,000.

"In July, buyers put aside any apprehensions they may have had about future market values, and committed," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said.

"While anecdotal market information suggested that July trading was going to be strong, the extent of activity will have caught most forecasters by surprise," he said.

"Normally as we approach a general election the market goes a little quiet, as buyers take a wait-and-see approach, but even this is not holding back activity.

"In July the market built on the unexpected lift following the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions and we sold 1095 properties.

"This is a level of sales normally only seen at the height of the summer sales season and is only one property less than we sold in March."

The interactive chart below tracks Barfoot & Thompson's monthly sales volumes, average and median selling prices and new listings.

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Source: Barfoot and Thompson

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85 Comments

by Ex Expat | 4th Aug 20, 10:37am 1596494248

CoreLogic estimate of my home is 105% of 2017 CV as at 2/8/20. The market in Kohimarama is going sideways but I predict 120 comments will be posted on this article arguing both up and down.

by Due Diligence | 4th Aug 20, 10:46am 1596494794

After checking Homes.co.nz & OneRoof this morning -

https://streamable.com/ytua8i

by zorba - old | 4th Aug 20, 11:15am 1596496532

Ha, ha, delightful..

by Nzdan | 4th Aug 20, 11:08am 1596496110

CoreLogic estimate of my home is 155% of 2017 CV as at 2/8/20.

by Ex Expat | 4th Aug 20, 11:21am 1596496877

You must be quite pleased with that. It's good to see people take a risk and have it work out.

by Nzdan | 4th Aug 20, 11:29am 1596497398

Very pleased. Purchased around 5% below RV, so estimated 60% increase on purchase price in 3 years. While only on paper, it measures opportunity cost had we delayed not only in deposit requirements but ongoing servicing costs.

by Pragmatist | 4th Aug 20, 11:34am 1596497665

Corelogic = 118% of 2017 CV
Homes = 128% of 2017 CV.

by cmat | 4th Aug 20, 11:35am 1596497743

At the risk of being one of the 120 comments...
Why do you follow that desktop valuation nonsense so closely?
It's totally meaningless and when you look at what it's based on it's pure garbage.

Look at actual pairs of sales in the area (i.e. the *same* property selling twice within a period whilst remaining in the *same* condition).
That's the only true gauge.

by Ex Expat | 4th Aug 20, 11:59am 1596499187

I follow it closely for three reasons: 1. It's free; 2. It's updated weekly; and 3. It's what my Bank evidently trusts to value their security. It's not perfect but as a representation of the Market it's useful to see trends. I'm not saying my home is worth $2.65m just because a desktop value says so. I'm using it to judge direction.

by am_fek | 4th Aug 20, 2:34pm 1596508463

I see a lot of transactions every month I can tell you that automated/desktop valuations are like broken clocks. Right every now and then but only ever by coincidence.
Would you like to learn more about the person who thought their house in Glenfield was worth well over $1m because it was "180 sqm" but was actually worth somewhere around $800k because in fact it was only 80 sqm?
In case you think these "fat finger" errors are rare then just know I would see a dozen of these kinds of mistakes a month typically.
If you accept that the concept of a desktop valuation is flawed then you should also accept that it does not give you a reliable steer on "direction" either.
The fact is that CoreLogic (Homes.co.nz is even worse) just pull free data from garbage sources that are often just flat out wrong. Garbage in, garbage out. I have raised this with CoreLogic's economists and I get blank stares - it's pretty hard to resist low hanging fruit even if it's rotten.
Free might be appealing but you also get what you pay for. Don't put any real stock in it whatsoever.

by printer8 | 4th Aug 20, 12:03pm 1596499417

cmat
"Look at actual pairs of sales in the area (i.e. the *same* property selling twice within a period whilst remaining in the *same* condition)' - how do you know from data available that a house is in the "same condition" as renovations may have been made, or that one of the sales was a forced sale under pressure such as a marriage breakdown, or that one of the buyers bought poorly or well . . . . .
What you suggest is not only only unreliable data, it would be hell of a lot of work collecting data for any sort of reliable sample.
The desktop valuations are based on numerous sales using algorithms that identify and compare similar features and characteristics - more reliable than what you are suggesting.
Are desktop valuations totally accurate - of course not, but as they are free or at little cost (e.g. CoreLogic) and as they clearly indicate they provide an "estimate" only. Being based on recent sales, they are a better guide than simply RVs.
Interestingly, while banks commonly require a registered valuation, they also use the desktop valuations. Don't waste your time presenting your calculations if going for a mortgage.
I suspect it is more of a case that you may not like what the desktops are saying.

by cmat | 4th Aug 20, 12:38pm 1596501536

If it was sold in the past 3-4 years you can usually still find the old listing online (real estate agents love trumpeting their successes, don't you know?).
I don't care id it was a "forced sale". If it was a market level transaction it was a market level transaction, that's all that matters.
Could make the argument for something selling for an extreme premium only coz some irrational bidder wanted something by that particular architect (which coincidentally, is exactly what happened on one sale in Kohimarama recently)

Desktop valuations will include properties with major renovations and include the sale price / CV in their analysis.
Totally and fundamentally flawed when the sales price for those properties is framed against a value (CV) when the property was in a completely different state.

QV will include the list of comparable data points they've used in their desktop valuation.
It's easy and not that time consuming to go through and strike through the ones that are totally not comparable.

I was a valuation professional (business valuations), the whole concept of desktop real estate valuations (and even professional valuations to some extent) makes me bang my head against the wall.
They're utter rubbish.

If you are genuinely interested in the value of your property (to the point of quoting CL every month) you'd put the work in.

Otherwise, what are you going to do?
Take your house to auction and bang the table if bids close at 95% of CV?
"bUt cOrElLoGiC tOLd mE iT's wOrTH 105%!!!"

by cmat | 4th Aug 20, 12:55pm 1596502541

If I was on the other side of the table from someone with a CoreLogic valuation I'd have a full list of recent comparable sales in the area and go through one-by-one to justify my bid.

I'm not going to sit and accept that I need to meet a number spat out from a garbage black box.

by Ex Expat | 4th Aug 20, 1:03pm 1596502993

I'm sensing some frustration in your posts. Do you have a transaction you were involved in recently to share?

by cmat | 4th Aug 20, 1:20pm 1596504028

Successfully sold my house is the only real estate transaction I've been involved in recently .

My only frustration is the smoke and mirrors in this industry with information, 'facts' and statistics, damn statistics.

I've spoken to some local agents (in the same area as you), they've tried to bluff stats around recent sales to me and they're all experts in macroeconomics it seems.
For every hero sale they'll quote they all have 3 duds that I'll bring up.
Every second hero sale quoted to CV has some extenuating circumstance - big reno, resource consent obtained for redevelopment
Local stats around shortage of stock are absolute rubbish - Eastern bays is sitting at the same stock levels it was this time last year
Full section sales are nowhere near the pink elephants they make them out to be.

My frustration is with the misleading information more than anything and the dedication to pulling the wool.
That's why I've made sure I understand the market at least as well as any of them.

by Ex Expat | 4th Aug 20, 2:14pm 1596507247

I have owned my home for 11 years and know my immediate area extremely well. I know where the drainage problems are, what the Winter sun coverage is, and even which neighbours to avoid. When there is a listing within 500m of my home, I look at the attributes and compare with my own home. I also have the occasional conversation with an agent I know to see what's pulling in buyers or conversely putting them off. I then see what the sales were. It's not rocket science, it's how buyers make offers and sellers decide whether to accept them or not. Right now, big lock and leave houses are selling well. Land is not necessarily valued for development as some single level homes are being gutted and renovated. It's a mix and the market has been relatively flat for three years. CoreLogic appears to reflect that.

by printer8 | 4th Aug 20, 2:49pm 1596509358

Cmat
Agreed that REA are “selling” you a property and of course going to have a bias and talk it up.
However, when looking at properties - especially algorithm based estimates more so than RVs - give a current ESTIMATED value as a starting guide to save wasted time looking at properties outside ones budget.
For that purpose they are are a valuable tool but not one I would look to base an offer on. Your knowledge gained looking at other properties would be of more importance. I also make offers subject to a registered valuation - as well as a builders report and finance. Why waste ones time on a valuers report - the best determinate and often required by the bank - if you offer is not going to be accepted.
The desktop valuations are a great aid and one I wish we had 40 years ago.

by Due Diligence | 4th Aug 20, 9:04pm 1596531846

Not a good decision, unless you’ve got other real estate and/or intend to buy straight back into the market.

by Albert2020 | 4th Aug 20, 11:37am 1596497873

Not surprising....just look at the Auckland median and average house price charts that interest produces. Its been going lateral since 2017.

by mikekirk29 | 4th Aug 20, 10:37am 1596494257

Spectacular July result for Barfoots. And as they rightly say, highest for July for 5 years.
Look a little deeper of course and you see things they do not say.
Like the 12m sales to July 2020 were 9641 and in 12m to July 2015 they were 13,201. a fall of 27%
The April and May deficit of sales due to lockdown was 540 compared to 2019.
In June and July they made up 250 of that.
So, of the hole, so far 46% has been filled in.
April - July sales for 2020 v 2019 remain down 9% for Auckland.

Similar to REINZ and the economy in general, when looking at June and July, you have to look more broadly at whether the dearth of activity of April and May has been made up. And so far it hasn't. REINZ in July needs to be at 2776 to be level with 2019 for the full 4m from April-July. That implies it will need to be up 39% on July 2019. Barfoots in July was up 24%.

by tothepoint - d… | 4th Aug 20, 11:16am 1596496593

Hi mikekirk29,

You're not too convincing in your attempts to make a silk purse look like a sow's ear.......

TTP

by mikekirk29 | 4th Aug 20, 11:41am 1596498080

Ok. give me an informed analysis to make it look like a silk purse, with figures to back your assertions

by CourtJester | 4th Aug 20, 11:50am 1596498606

He never posts numbers. Just spruiker propaganda.

by Chairman Moa | 4th Aug 20, 12:04pm 1596499489

You won't get any data but names calling.

by tothepoint - d… | 4th Aug 20, 12:25pm 1596500712

Hi mikekirk29,

If you want data/analysis, then keep visiting this site, my friend......

In case you haven't noticed, interest.co.nz publish data/analysis - together with unbiased commentary - almost every day.

Time for you and your oily mates to wake up and get real.

TTP

by CJ099 | 4th Aug 20, 12:37pm 1596501431

Yep classic Ttp reaction, no substance, no facts of his own, just name calling. Seems the only slipper REA here is you Thomas.

by mikekirk29 | 4th Aug 20, 12:38pm 1596501509

Just as expected, vitriol and zero figures

by Chairman Moa | 4th Aug 20, 12:52pm 1596502327

I thought Oily Newland is your mate?

by theglc | 4th Aug 20, 12:15pm 1596500100

I love the perspective you bring to the conversation Mike.

Nice to have a totally different view

keep em coming

by mikekirk29 | 4th Aug 20, 12:39pm 1596501583

Thanks mate, I appreciate a bit of support

by printer8 | 4th Aug 20, 10:44am 1596494688

"Barfoot's average selling price rose for the second month in a row to $979,189 but remained below the March peak of $993,528".
Fairly bland data but that's only of $14,300, or 1.4% down - hardly any indication of a Covid bubble burst and arguably the sort of drop one could expect from late summer to mid winter.
A 1.4% drop is well within the range of buying poorly and buying well and therefore fall in market is seemingly secondary to that.
Yeah, yeah, the wage subsidy and mortgage holiday are due to finish but the economy and unemployment levels not tanking as much as expected.
Still cashed up, watching and waiting . . . . but not looking very promising.

by mikekirk29 | 4th Aug 20, 10:53am 1596495209

Hi Printer,

yes, agreed. Take a look at deposits shown in banks by RBNZ on 31.7.20. Rose $23 billion from Feb to April. Fell $10b in June. That plus all money spent in NZ instead of abroad, and QE, explains why NZ economy has not tanked. That sugar hit will not be repeated. So, slow decline in everything til January, then faster I believe. Unfortunately, Barfoots does not show % of sales by price bracket in much detail, so that one can compare with last year. But REINZ data shows that over 1.4m is selling in far greater % increased terms, than brackets below $900k

by CJ099 | 4th Aug 20, 11:15am 1596496509

Yes the HK panic buying may not last that long. Recent article Nikkei Asian Review: China watches big cash transactions to stem capital flight
"New rules and digital yuan give Beijing a complete view of monetary activities". https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Currencies/China-watches-big-c…

by printer8 | 4th Aug 20, 12:16pm 1596500204

CJ099
Here we go again . . . . Hong Kong foreign buyers influencing the market.
As soon as the report was posted I knew you would trot that worn out line again.
The strength of the Auckland market is consistent with what is happening in most regions - Waikato, BOP, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Manawatu, Tasman, Canterbury . . . . . Hong Kong buyers active in these places too influencing most of the regional markets also??????????
Actually, Auckland is not performing as well in these places - must be not enough Hong Kong foreign buyers. :)
And also always Hong Kong or Chinese . . . but never US or Europeans or South Africans. Keep the conspiracy theory going.

by CJ099 | 4th Aug 20, 1:11pm 1596503471

Yeah, Yeah, P8 I'll keep posting the article facts. I'm sure more informed investors can evaluate the facts for themselves. There's enough evidence even in the auction results to see what's going on. And no South Africans and even Americans aren't wealthy enough to afford most Auckland property prices. The fact that the top end of the market is still active is enough to show that there if motivate buying which has picked up in Auckland recently after HK events.

Oh yeah and don't forget the backdoor route of buying through Trusts to get around the foreign buyers ban. The thing is it's not going to last long, for reason that have been pointed out in my previous comment.

by printer8 | 4th Aug 20, 1:16pm 1596503813

CJ099
So, with all these claimed additional Hong Kong buyers bolstering and distorting Auckland prices, why has Auckland not performed as well the increases in the regions?

by CJ099 | 4th Aug 20, 1:49pm 1596505760

Do you see the "regions" selling well in the auction results? Nope! Have most of the top end sales centered around Auckland recently, yes. The recent auction results show that sales have increased some what (Even if general none auction property sales are lower).
It's a shift from when most of Auckland was stagnating for quite some time to, it has improved in the top end of the market and in the areas popular with Chinese buyers. It's an observation.

by printer8 | 4th Aug 20, 4:12pm 1596514323

CJ099
While not supporting your simplistic stereotypical assumptions that it is areas that have gone up are “popular with Chinese” and it is they who have driven the prices in these suburbs up - on what basis can you confirm that these Chinese buyers are foreign buyers rather than recent New Zealand immigrants (and now New Zealand residents or citizens like me and possibly you)?
Given the multi-layered requirements of banks in fund (especially internationally) transfers, REA and lawyers, now in place - and especially so related to trusts - which while may be circumvented in some instances they appear successful and are unlikely to be suffice to significantly influence the market.
To be blunt; your comments don’t seem to be based on any fact but rather conspiracy.

by CJ099 | 4th Aug 20, 4:30pm 1596515444

Oh if you think Trusts are all that secure and transparent, please explain why they're new laws being introduced in Jan 2021 to help make them more transparent to avoid money laundering etc? Could it be because they're still be used for dodgy dealings!? Hardly a conspiracy when they're being brought up in court is it, and from this recent article about how Trusts can be miss handled that shows just how wrong you are P8.

Article from Otago Daily Times: Gang lawyer's 'perplexing' fall from grace. All centers around dodgy money being held in Trust accounts. Apparently the lawyer advised them to "Keep any cash deposits under $10,000 to avoid raising red flags with the banks, which are obliged to report any transactions above the threshold." https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/gang-lawyers-perplexing-fall-grace

by house hunter | 4th Aug 20, 8:55pm 1596531358

For CJ099:

To qualify for the richest 1% of Americans you need a net worth is 10 million USD (about 15 million NZD). There are about 200 million adults in America, therefore about 2 million Americans have a net worth of more than 15million NZD. In other words, a very large number of Americans can trivially afford Auckland property prices. The figures get even more silly if you consider that the top 10% of Americans have a net worth of over 1.7m NZD.

Therefore your statement "even Americans aren't wealthy enough to afford most Auckland property prices" would seem to be incorrect.

by CJ099 | 4th Aug 20, 10:10pm 1596535834

LOL, I know quite a few Americans who have moved to NZ and they are all still renting (Part of their culture). Are you also aware of the huge economy slide that they're currently under going, due to an incompetent president who failed to recognize what impact the coronavirus would have on them.
CNBC News: A second Great Depression? Unemployment crisis hits big cities hard. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/some-big-cities-are-hitting-great-depre…

by tothepoint - d… | 4th Aug 20, 11:09am 1596496164

House owners are well-advised to sit tight in the current period.

Holding onto real/physical assets - particularly real estate - makes huge sense right now..... Most property owners appear to have worked this out for themselves.

Auckland and Wellington property owners - as well as those in the main provincial centres - are in a good, safe place. Notably, expats want your property......

TTP

by Sluggy | 4th Aug 20, 1:56pm 1596506193

I want to see actual figures on this expat theory. Got any ?
I know of a few people coming back, mostly either young OE returnees or with young kids, none have a lazy mil in the back pocket, pretty much the opposite.

by muzled | 4th Aug 20, 11:09am 1596496140

How long will you wait for Printer?

I've got a friend cashed up and looking and have been saying I can't see how prices can't fall, but it doesn't look like happening anytime soon.

by printer8 | 4th Aug 20, 11:38am 1596497939

muzzled
I am happy to wait six months before looking at alternatives. However, like your friend, I don't see considerable fall any time soon, and even the bank economists are pulling their estimates of a contraction back from about 10+% to around 7%. If properties fall even 5% then that is in the range of buying well and buying poorly so market considerations become secondary.

by EmperorXi | 4th Aug 20, 9:53pm 1596534802

In my opinion, here's some food for thought........ purely based on what I'm seeing and hearing from fellow comrades on the ground.

The current state in the NZ Real Estate market:

Investors are backing off;

Mum and Dad investors are too puzzled to react, despite the bank letting them know that a few of their crappy properties have gained around 55K in the the last six months (This lot is the dumb money, only leveraging the growing values);

First home buyers are the only crickets jumping around (a lot of folks who have around 10% to 15% deposit ranging from 80 to 150K and have not had a job loss as yet).

More houses being listed as vendors have suddenly realized now may the only time left to get close to the CV value of the property, especially with Agents STILL BULL SHITTING that they've been busier than ever, especially with all the low interest rates and kiwis strong desire to own an OVER PRICED shit box in Auckland (Just like the Mike Pero advert).

SCENARIO with the HIGHEST PROBABILITY (in the next 8 to 12 Months):

Given that these first home buyers are a finite set their supply will wean in the next 6 to 8 months.

Around 25% of the Mortgage deferrals will end up in the non performing class.

Banks will let folks know in clear terms that the free rides are over (They will not go any low and their cousins in the US get screwed over when the NASDAQ takes a plunge).

An initial raft of Mortgagee sales will send a wave of shivers down over leveraged Investors whose businesses are skimming or one of whom have lost a job or face reduced income to service the payments.

All this would be based on the following CONDITIONS:

NZ does not have another lockdown (the banks don't have a ruse to extend holidays).

No Vaccine is out by March 2020 with Tourism and Immigration being in doldrums.

The only props given by the central bank is to move the non performing loans into a new category which doesn't require Banks to raise the reserves.

China's real estate market crash (Note: All the saber rattling by the party folks clearly show that things are not well from the past few years and that they are slowly loosing the trust of common folks, who once thought that apartments were a commodity).

The Global economy still stuttering with the US leading the way.

by Shoreman | 4th Aug 20, 12:10pm 1596499847

Hi Printer8 - Well never listen to economists unless it's Tony Alexander, this is exactly as he suggested it could be. Just a point Tony points out is the banks are very cautious working on a 10% +/- potential drop in prices. They are waiting for firm proof that is not the case, at that point they will ease up which will bring alot more buyers/competition to a already active market. Tview Premium available for a $110/annum worth every cent !

by printer8 | 4th Aug 20, 12:29pm 1596500955

Shoreman
Have followed TA for well over a decade and despite him being rubbished by some on this site, I have done well considering (note: use of "considering") his views.
I find that he always provides sound reasons for his views - something those who tend to rubbish him never do in their own assertions.
Personally, I never take note of any one commentator, but rather read and consider a range of commentators and their rationale. I am influenced by these but come to my own conclusions and this has been successful for me.
Like you, I also highly recommend TA subscription.

by Toppertee | 4th Aug 20, 1:31pm 1596504689

TA would play a great ‘Shylock’ on the big stage.

by Albert2020 | 4th Aug 20, 12:58pm 1596502739

The irony being that it’s the banks being (finally) cautious that will expedite house price falls (cos as we know credit growth is house price growth) at which point it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

by Officebound | 4th Aug 20, 10:54am 1596495277

Nervous times ahead for myself personally.

Home (in lower quartile AKL suburb) is hitting the market this week, we're hoping to sell before buying newer/nicer home in better nearby suburb.

We've got some wiggle room, but concerned that even if we get top dollar, the market will continue to run away, and the $700k we'll be sitting on will become increasingly worthless.

That said, the alternative was to buy then sell, and risk holding the baby if it turns to custard, so not looking back...

by printer8 | 4th Aug 20, 11:15am 1596496544

Officebound
You are in the fortunate position of being able to trade up - clearly you have probably made good capital gains and expect job and income security.
As long as you buy and sell on the same market you have little to feel nervous about.
The only risk is if you procrastinate and the market does run ahead.
Of course some on this site will argue, the market could fall and you would miss out on that - however, your comments suggest that you are being naturally being conservative which in your position makes sense to act with certainty and buy sooner rather than later.
You seem to have your act together; however if I was you, I would be firstly be talking and confirming finance with the bank, marketing your home, starting to look, and once an offer received on your property then making a conditional offer. Once your home goes unconditional I would be acting more quickly as there is the hassle of the transition arrangements (affecting family) between completing a sale and moving into a new home.

by stuart786786 | 4th Aug 20, 10:59am 1596495543

Why be surprised as not only housing market but even stock market is booming for now.

With such strong upward movement in all asset class - one wonder if panademic has been a boon to housing and stock market and may be even economy is fundamentally very strong (is economy not suppose to be reflected in stock and housing market).

by Fritz | 4th Aug 20, 11:01am 1596495667

The big question is whether the strength of both markets can be sustained.
I am not convinced.

by tothepoint - d… | 4th Aug 20, 11:18am 1596496726

Hi Fritz,

Houses cost a lot of money.

But procrastinating will cost you plenty more......

TTP

by richard1965 | 4th Aug 20, 11:12am 1596496320

Now in today's time :

Fundamentally Strong Economy = How Much / How Strong is the QE

by Chairman Moa | 4th Aug 20, 11:02am 1596495739

Where is TM2 these days? I am missing latest news in CHCH..

by Nzdan | 4th Aug 20, 11:16am 1596496573

Banned i think? Tried clicking on his profile link from an old post and it comes up "Access Denied".

by Pathos | 4th Aug 20, 11:09am 1596496178

If "Interest.co.nz" regards property transactions to be "breaking news" and is highlighted as such in a large orange banner, then how about disclaiming whether any of your major sponsors write housing loans.

by tothepoint - d… | 4th Aug 20, 11:38am 1596497932

Hi Pathos,

Interest.co.nz has a reputation for "telling it as it is".

The most reputable/credible/non-biased on-line news site that I've come across - and that's a key reason why it's so respected and popular.

TTP

by Matt73 | 4th Aug 20, 11:15am 1596496551

So someone check me on this if I'm wrong but if the average price is increasing but the median price is falling, then does that mean we have a few properties at the high end trading hands but the majority of stuff moving at the low end.

What behaviour would be driving that? Is low end investor fodder getting offloaded i.e CBD Appartments, crappy rentals that need work, while people trade up family homes?

by gingerninja | 4th Aug 20, 12:37pm 1596501430

Matt73, you could very well be right. We know that FHB'ers have been very active recently, much more so than investors so if investors are taking a wait and see approach for now (with yet more selling a property or two to sure up liquidity and take profits to use against any future crash) then we'd definitely be seeing more sales at the lower end.

by user123 | 4th Aug 20, 12:04pm 1596499483

I'm a massive property bear, but even I have to admit, this is not panning out as expected. There is no denying the market has been strong the last couple of months. I can't see the rational, but it is what it is.

by Glitzy | 4th Aug 20, 12:17pm 1596500252

Record low mortgage rates with government (our) money in free flow. Not going to have any clear vision on the economy until Q1 next year when the wage subsidy is dusted and businesses have adjusted to the new paradigm.

Probably the only residential market showing stress now is inner city Auckland apartments. Oseas buyers walking away from deposits and big projects mothballed.

by mikekirk29 | 4th Aug 20, 12:28pm 1596500880

yes, notice that BT shows central Auckland sales down 71% on last July. that s mostly apartments

by Te Kooti | 4th Aug 20, 12:30pm 1596501011

Mate, if you're struggling with buoyant house prices, try Tesla being worth more than VW, BMW, Nissan, General Motors, Ford, Barclays, Qantas, American Airlines, Fiat/Chrysler and General Electric combined.

by Sluggy | 4th Aug 20, 2:02pm 1596506539

https://www.instagram.com/p/CDIPbk4H7Kj/?igshid=soj5a76wouom
This guy is putting a turbocharged rotary into a wrecked Tesla. Mildly counter intuitive but worthy.

by house hunter | 4th Aug 20, 9:06pm 1596532018

It's easy to see why Telsa is worth more than other car companies. Their electric cars lead the market, their self-driving tech leads the market, and they have an extensive charging network (maybe bigger than any other car company, I'm not sure). Pretty powerful three pronged approach. Their overall strategy was never in question, it was just whether they could survive long enough for the strategy to start turning a profit. Now that it's doing that the others are playing catchup.

by Poppyc | 4th Aug 20, 10:16pm 1596536176

Their profit is based purely on selling EU carbon credits, which they have pulled forward and admitted they do not know if it sustainable. The underlying business itself has never been profitable, and they are performing some of the greatest accounting tricks ever seen. Effectively they are faking it until the make it. Elon may just be an amazing magician, time will tell.

by Yvil | 4th Aug 20, 4:02pm 1596513736

user123, Good on you for seeing things as they are rather than as you expect them to be

by Shoreman | 4th Aug 20, 12:20pm 1596500430

Well here we are post lockdown and at this point all the pessimist predictions are wrong again. Covid19, GFC, Asian crisis etc etc. My point is for young people if you are in a position to buy and get on with your lives never ever listen to DGM's, there will always be dips that come along but the security and likely financial gains make buying a sensible option at anytime, I can confirm that statement has been valid for 50 years. So many put off buying post GFC I know of. Happy investing.

by company of heroes | 4th Aug 20, 2:37pm 1596508661

After GFC, the booming in New Zealand house market is more because of foreign investors, especially Chinese oversea investors. They've brought lots of money to New Zealand only for buying houses. This time is a bit different. Even if our government open the housing market to oversea buyers, there wont be another booming season due to many oversea / Chinese buyers, as Chinese government has already put up a very tight restrictions for capital flowing out from China. As us, you so called "DGM", we are not talking down the market and also not try to stop young people buying houses. We are just trying to help people to know the risks involved. If you buy houses at high prices, when the crisis happens, you will lose money and houses. Some of my friends have experienced that through GFC, they mortgage sold their property and lost their money and houses, never made a come back since. If you are financially stable, with decent amount savings then go for it. But don't expect you will get the same return like 2016 for a while. You might never get a good return.

by mikekirk29 | 4th Aug 20, 12:26pm 1596500795

Although REINZ figures are not complete til released in mid August, the provisional indicators are as follows:
At moment (bearing and that an unknown % yet to be reported) Auckland sales are 15% lower than in July 2019.
But bracket analysis shows consistent theme with last month:

600-850k: down 20% on July 2019
1.5m and above: 32% up on July 2019

by printer8 | 4th Aug 20, 12:37pm 1596501452

mike
Why are the number of sales so important?
Other than for REA, most people are concerned only with price trends.
Most people are interested in price trends as they are either selling or buying a property . The number of sales say little about price trend - you can have few sales in a falling market when you have over-supply and buyers are hesitant to buy, and you can fewer sales in a rising market when there is under-supply as sellers are holding off.

by mikekirk29 | 4th Aug 20, 12:45pm 1596501943

As I have said repeatedly, a market is buyers and sellers.
Fewer buyers means declining market.
Fewer buyers also means fewer people can afford to buy. That has societal effects.
If fewer buyers at lower brackets than higher ones (directionally speaking - ie which is rising or falling in number) that shows credit conditions are tightening, which is a canary for the economy as a whole.
Sales in Auckland have been falling since 2013.
A market does not consist in just price rises and if prices rise more than wages, buyers will decline and decline faster as interest rate cuts slow to a halt.
I am interested in society, economics, politics and house market.
Yes I am an estate agent but I am 57 and I have been in many there fields prior to RE.
Enough people on here seem interested in what I have to say, so I will continue

by Te Kooti | 4th Aug 20, 12:55pm 1596502550

Mike, how do you know sales aren't down due to a lack of sellers? I would expect to see sales to listing ratio fall sharply if you are correct, is this the case? The price action in a few of the recent Auckland sales is telling me there is a structural shortage of property on the market.

by mikekirk29 | 4th Aug 20, 1:57pm 1596506236

Undoubtedly right that is a shortage of sellers selling what is wanted by buyers of some types of property. Listings now below what were a year ago
New listings difficult to count because Agents take off and put on again. There are prop in Manly that have done this 3 times in last 2 yeas and not sold

by CourtJester | 4th Aug 20, 1:17pm 1596503820

If the number of sales aren't important to you, just ignore them. You can't predict prices, but the overall health of the market may... and the number of sales measures an aspect of said 'health'.

by Cowpat | 4th Aug 20, 2:18pm 1596507529

"Why are the number of sales so important?" The volume of sales is a very important lead indicator for the Reserve Bank, particularly as it provides timely information regarding credit growth/mortgage debt . A cursory look at both volumes/price charts from Interest's , show that increasing volumes precede upward price movements, in both Auckland and New Zealand, with Auckland preceding New Zealand. When sales volume, but more importantly actual turnover to stock consistently falls the RBNZ has been willing to intervene.

by mikekirk29 | 4th Aug 20, 12:36pm 1596501393

REINZ shows March-June sales (all) in Auckland were 28% lower in 2020 than 2019
For bracket 600-850 was - 37%
For over 1.5m it was - 19.5%
Clearly, unemployment hits poor, young and Maori first, according to news.
FHB is NOT buoyant. Notice Manukau on BT showing sales at - 13%
Some might like to speculate who is selling at over 1.5m and who is buying.
Credit to lower brackets clearly being tightened

by mikekirk29 | 4th Aug 20, 12:51pm 1596502286

Auckland sales March-June

2013: 16,218
2018: 12,715
2019: 10,798
2020: 7,757

Nothing to do with price rise of course

by CourtJester | 4th Aug 20, 1:20pm 1596504011

Clearly a very strong and healthy market.
But what do I care, the only numbers that matter are the ones with a dollar sign. Right?

by Yvil | 4th Aug 20, 5:49pm 1596520154

Right!

by Halfway To Paradise | 4th Aug 20, 1:17pm 1596503849

Core Logic has shown consistent increases in my property values and this has continued through Covid

by am_fek | 4th Aug 20, 2:35pm 1596508510

deleted - wrong thread, egg on face, etc.